🤔Revealing Vulnerability: Scared of Risks ? Learn to Profit Big from Uncertainty!

Hello everyone, welcome to calm waters.

Today I would like to chat with you all about thoughts on fragility. I recently

read a book that was very enlightening called antifragile how to gain from uncertainty. While

reading the book, I gained many insights and would like to share my understanding and thoughts on fragility and anti-fragility.

Before we dive into how to do this, let's first ponder what it means to be fragile. Only recently did I realize

fragile. Only recently did I realize that like myself, one who once seemed successful and a white collar worker is in fact part of a highly fragile group.

I recall a news story from two years back. Does anyone remember it? a highly

back. Does anyone remember it? a highly

educated woman working in finance in Hong Kong who earned a substantial salary and graduated from a top tier university, a truly outstanding young woman. But just two years ago, something

woman. But just two years ago, something happened. The salaries in the finance

happened. The salaries in the finance sector dropped sharply. I wonder if folks still recall that due to the broader external factors, his salary plunged far more than just being halfed.

He could no longer afford his mortgage payments. So he chose to end his life by

payments. So he chose to end his life by jumping from a building. At the time he had bought a multi-million dollar home in Hong Kong. This tragedy sparked widespread public debate at the time. I

noticed many nizens criticized him for buying a home recklessly with two main root causes identified. First, he was overly optimistic and ignored black swan

risks. As we mentioned, he had a strong

risks. As we mentioned, he had a strong academic record, graduated from a top tier school and had an impressive work history and excellent skills. At first

glance, he was on a rising career path and still quite young even if laid off.

He felt confident he could quickly land a new job with his strong credentials.

In his mind, the future seemed smooth and troublefree. He never considered

and troublefree. He never considered extreme scenarios. And honestly, if I

extreme scenarios. And honestly, if I were him, I'd think the same way, too.

If I were him, I believe my future was bright and secure. I just want to buy this house I've had my eye on. Is that a problem? But black swan events often

problem? But black swan events often strike without warning. Just like that sudden mass pay cut in the finance sector. A systemic risk no one can fully

sector. A systemic risk no one can fully shield themselves from. So in the industry storm, even top tier personal skills can seem utterly powerless.

This also brings to mind my own experiences. I once worked in the

experiences. I once worked in the internet sector relying on my youth decent degree and solid resume and I was confident in my own abilities. So I felt

that even if I got laid off I could soon find new jobs at other companies. But

now if I look back I still possess some degree of anti-fragility at present. As

we just mentioned I'm still young and my salary isn't that high companies can afford it. My resume is decent and

afford it. My resume is decent and things look fine for now, but we must keep our eyes on the future. As time

goes on, perhaps within 5 years, my anti-fragility may vanish entirely because by then I'd be a woman in tech facing the 35 crisis, struggling to find

satisfying work in this industry, wouldn't I? Right? So, because of this,

wouldn't I? Right? So, because of this, I must find an antifragile path for myself five or even 10 years from now.

For me, starting a business is that path. Second, he overestimated his risk

path. Second, he overestimated his risk resilience. His choices lacked built-in

resilience. His choices lacked built-in redundancy.

I was deeply impressed by one netizen who left a comment with a salary of 60 to 70k. Would you dare buy a HK home

to 70k. Would you dare buy a HK home worth tens of millions? This is not something folks without means or pedigree can afford. Do you truly think

you can leap class tiers just by your skills and your academic credentials? He

put it very plainly. Why would he on a salary of 60 to 70k dare to buy a property worth tens of millions? The

core reason I think is that he calculated things far too precisely.

Suppose he earns 80K monthly, pay 60k in mortgage, keeps 10K for living costs, leaves 10K surplus. Just looking at this

ledger, these numbers seem fine at first glance. But the fatal flaw in this

glance. But the fatal flaw in this calculation is that it leaves no room in space. For folks like us who are not

space. For folks like us who are not involved, the risks in this decision are quite obvious. If anything went arry or

quite obvious. If anything went arry or some mishop struck or if something urgent came up at home, he might not be able to repay. But for those deep in the situation, they are in a career growth

phase. The pay is high and seems quite

phase. The pay is high and seems quite stable. Plus, he is young and healthy.

stable. Plus, he is young and healthy.

His parents are still young and have health insurance. There seemed no sudden

health insurance. There seemed no sudden urgent need for cash to arise. So, one

just tightens and thinks one can push through. But precisely because of this

through. But precisely because of this meticulous planning, our lives became extremely fragile with virtually no capacity to withstand risks ultimately leading to tragedy. What's especially

sad is that he was a top finance school graduate lacked even basic thought caution and heat for black swan events that is truly disheartening.

So let us return to the core question.

What exactly is fragility?

Just like that young woman there whose life became fragile precisely because of the house purchasing decision. This is

one example like vases and glass bottles or chips and eggs. These things are fragile as well. And also those professionals with narrow skill sets, businesses with single client sources or

teams overly reliant on one key staff member or the boss. These are also fragile.

My initial thought was that fragility means lacking any sort of resilience. It

means weak risk resilience prone to damage or collapse under stress, shocks or the passage of time and cannot withstand any strain. We call this fragility. But if we stop at this level,

fragility. But if we stop at this level, our grasp of fragility remains rather narrow and shallow. Indeed, in the book on fragility, the author Nasim Tale

proposes a triad. Fragility, robustness,

and anti-fragility.

Fragility means disliking volatility and uncertainty. It breaks or collapses

uncertainty. It breaks or collapses under stress or shocks like a glass cup that shatters when dropped. He called

this fragility. I feel this definition is far more profound than my own prior grasp. If we think deeper, we'll see

grasp. If we think deeper, we'll see that the core of risk resistance I see still implies proactive action. It

requires deliberate effort from us. But

business volatility and uncertainty highlight the core issue. The mere

existence of such things makes them inherently fragile. Any slight shift

inherently fragile. Any slight shift from the outside can still impact it deeply. I wonder if everyone has caught

deeply. I wonder if everyone has caught the difference between these two one still requires us to take action on our own. Just your mere existence lacks

own. Just your mere existence lacks resilience. Any external factor might

resilience. Any external factor might arrive and potentially shatter it entirely.

So you see clearly sees that its own rejection of external fluctuations and uncertainties or its inability to handle

these aspects this would make it inherently frail. So the first step is

inherently frail. So the first step is to recognize whether we are in a fragile state. This is our first act in fighting

state. This is our first act in fighting fragility. Great. Now in part two, we'll

fragility. Great. Now in part two, we'll discuss how to combat fragility.

Right. At the start of this book, Nasim Nicholas Tale posed a great question.

What is the opposite of fragility? The

answer Nasim Tale gave was one that appended many people's views or reshaped their understanding. He mentioned in the

their understanding. He mentioned in the triad framework three concepts fragility, resilience and anti-fragility. Fragility as we just

anti-fragility. Fragility as we just said refers to business volatility and uncertainty. Any stress or shock would

uncertainty. Any stress or shock would cause the matter itself to suffer damage or even collapse entirely.

Good. Let us go ahead. or perhaps an object, a person or an event that can withstand shocks and retain its state

through such fluctuations, then return to its original form once stressed like a rubber ball that springs back after being squashed. This is robustness. Is

being squashed. This is robustness. Is

this the optimal form? And it is not that robustness means no change occurs during fluctuations. It suffers no harm

during fluctuations. It suffers no harm but gains nothing either. So he

introduced a key concept antifragility.

He meant that there's a higher tier than just robustness itself.

When things face volatility, stress and uncertainty, it's not just about staying the same. It's about gaining and growing

the same. It's about gaining and growing stronger from it. For instance, when you train your muscles, it can cause minor tears through constant repair and growth. This makes our muscles and our

growth. This makes our muscles and our whole body much stronger over time. So

this is about antifragility. The core

idea of anti-fragility is that fighting fragility and boosting resilience are just the basics. The ultimate fix is to build antifragility.

This idea was truly eyeopening to me.

When faced with such fluctuations, most people might think, how can I just avoid or escape it? The better or ultimate fix is figuring out how to gain from such uncertainty. The 2008 financial crisis

uncertainty. The 2008 financial crisis was just like this. As with my past thoughts and the many books I've read, I often pondered how could I before this financial crisis hates

spot the signs and safeguard some of my assets and wealth. But after reading his theory, I suddenly wondered, could I not just preserve my wealth during such a

financial crisis, but perhaps do more than that? More importantly, one could

than that? More importantly, one could actually gain more wealth in this crisis. For instance, if I had 100,000

crisis. For instance, if I had 100,000 yen, could I turn it into a million, 10 million? In truth, this was something I

million? In truth, this was something I never dared to imagine before. Back

then, I was too narrow-minded or overly cautious, thinking that just keeping safe my 100,000 was already great, but nothing Nicholas Taylor tells us that keeping those 100k isn't the best option at all. What we need to do is turn this

at all. What we need to do is turn this 100,000 into a million amid this crisis.

This part really struck me as quite intriguing. How to do this? I've summed

intriguing. How to do this? I've summed

up five key approaches. First, the first approach is to actively embrace moderate stress and build robustness through it.

Robustness often begins with willingly facing a bit of pressure. I was deeply moved by one story the book mentioned a similar case too. I saw in a video that

someone tried to build a poisonproof body by injecting snake venom in small doses. His body's toxin resistance grew

doses. His body's toxin resistance grew stronger. So even if he was later bitten

stronger. So even if he was later bitten by a venomous snake, his symptoms were mild. Thus he achieved what's called a

mild. Thus he achieved what's called a robust constitution. As mentioned in the

robust constitution. As mentioned in the book, it was some empress who to prevent others from poisoning her and endangering her life would regularly

consume tiny minuscule doses of poison.

When someone tried to poison him, his body's antibodies kicked in and rendered it harmless. This is another tale that

it harmless. This is another tale that left a deep impression. I also recall a time when I was learning a foreign language. The period when I improved

language. The period when I improved most was during my business trips abroad. To be frank, my English isn't

abroad. To be frank, my English isn't great. In a foreign land, you must

great. In a foreign land, you must communicate just to survive. Even if

your speech is halting and awkward, you still have to speak. Like when you need to ride a bus or buy things, you just have to speak. But precisely this pressure to speak out loud, it pushed me

from that early stage where I'd hesitate and struggle to utter just a few words to a point where I could speak confidently, even with grammar flaws.

The same goes for improving one's physical health. When I was young, I was

physical health. When I was young, I was frail and often ill. Whenever I caught a cold, my mom would take me to the hospital for medicine and IV drips. Once

I started college, since seeing a doctor cost my own money, I stopped going and toughed it out. I didn't expect that I caught cold far less often. Now, my

immunity has steadily improved. Since I

started working, I rarely take medicine and rely solely on my own immunity to fight cold. Now, I feel my body is at

fight cold. Now, I feel my body is at such a peak. Yet this ties closely to our personal growth and development because right now we are in the most

vigorous phase of our entire lives. Now

for instance if I catch a cold I recover in two to three days at most and never more than a week with mild symptoms. So from all the examples we've discussed above we can derive our first principle.

The need for a healthy dose of external pressure can push us to become far more resilient. This has given me a fresh and

resilient. This has given me a fresh and new insight. When we feel particularly

new insight. When we feel particularly fragile at this moment, we might first ask ourselves, have we become too comfortable, lacking the needed pressure. At this point, you should

pressure. At this point, you should deliberately add some stress. Take my

current job for instance. If it's going smoothly with no setbacks at all, that's precisely a dangerous sign of fragility.

Or one might dwell on past successes, unaware that these very experiences may have already or are slowly become outdated.

If you don't keep learning and stay updated on industry trends, you may be left behind. Or perhaps I'm not yet

left behind. Or perhaps I'm not yet sharp enough on industry trends and shifts. Just like the Titanic come

shifts. Just like the Titanic come before it hit the iceberg, yet riddled with hidden dangers all along. By the

time we spot the iceberg, it is far too late to turn back. So to sum up, when you feel you're not much of anything and quite fragile, a touch of measured

external pressure is needed. Okay, the

second approach is break your fixation on certainty and inject randomness.

There was one line in the book that struck me. It was my greatest takeaway

struck me. It was my greatest takeaway from the read.

Many people hold a core misconception that randomness equates to risk and removing it would eliminate all risk.

The moment I read that line, my heart jolted and I got goosebumps all over.

That is true. I used to think the same and I once believed randomness meant risk. If I don't know where my clients

risk. If I don't know where my clients will be tomorrow or if I'll earn anything at all next month that feels very risky indeed.

But Nasim Nicholas Telbup in his book posed a question which is more fragile.

A taxi driver or a regular office worker. His answer was the latter.

worker. His answer was the latter.

Because taxi life seems full of randomness. You never know how many

randomness. You never know how many fairs you get tomorrow yet. Precisely

because this uncertainty breeds stress.

It pushes him to keep adapting and sharpen his service skills, thus gaining antifragility from volatility and doubt.

In my view, the fragility of these two jobs varies by person and depends largely on the specific context they find themselves in. But one thing is clear, those who cling to the status quo

and fear change are bound to be fragile.

For change will always come. You just

don't know when it will come or how big or small its impact will be.

So if you're not truly prepared and you're running from it, then its arrival will surely deliver a deadly blow to you. And as many people dislike

you. And as many people dislike randomness and I used to hate it too because we lacked past experience of gaining from it.

Imagine suppose that volatility could bring us some gains instead and such gains would far outweigh any losses I might have to bear. Would we still fear randomness? Then that is clearly not

randomness? Then that is clearly not true. Why do kids in Janguj Shanghai

true. Why do kids in Janguj Shanghai love business so much? Because they saw from a young age look at my toys or perhaps my books here. I might buy it for 20 R&B then rent it to my classmates

and in 10 days I could recoup that cost entirely. I might earn 40 bucks which

entirely. I might earn 40 bucks which would let me buy a brand new book instead. They gained from this

instead. They gained from this uncertainty which made them deeply passionate about the whole endeavor. If

I look back, the path someone like me has taken was shaped by constant reinforcement of seeking stability. For

instance, when in middle school, parents would tell you that if you failed to get into high school, you would never get to study more. And when in high school, if

study more. And when in high school, if you did not make it to university, you would work hard and keep studying. Once

we graduated, our parents wanted us to be teachers, civil servants, or doctors, stable jobs to build a life. And society

tells you so and so was laid off or so and so so and so and so and so. Another

round of cuts. Now more are laid off and yet more grads can find jobs. just

another batch of jobless graduates.

These prestigious graduates could not find jobs, so they became food corers or taxi drivers and so on. So we feel quite anxious and sick to find a stable establishment job instead. Precisely

because of this, we had little to no exposure to true randomness in the past.

His reaction was fear and flight. No

games were drawn from randomness at all.

Because our past lives were so stable.

Everything followed the script, just going with the flow and doing things that seemed secure. We've never gained from randomness in any way. Thus, we

reject randomness. Then, when I read the reviews, many people also resonated strongly with this line. They all share a common sentiment. I get the logic, but

society won't let us act this way. We

can do some random things, but if your job is unstable, you might face certain challenges in society. But we must admit that shifting mindsets is tough, especially when just one book or essay

struggles to overturn beliefs someone has held for decades. Indeed, for

instance, I don't know how many folks this episode might influence. But if we truly wish to change, we might start with small things in our daily lives.

Intentionally add some controllable randomness. It is key. How should one

randomness. It is key. How should one introduce randomness? To me, it's a

introduce randomness? To me, it's a natural process that doesn't need forced effort. There are two key points.

effort. There are two key points.

First, set up a systematic set of rules to define intervention limits. The core

of this framework lies in discerning when to intervene and when to let the system run on its own. For instance, if my work still faces fresh challenges, that means the system is evolving. So,

no intervention is needed. But if my content has passed the phase from zero to one in creation had fallen into a repetitive rot at that point. I needed

to step in and inject some randomness. I

remember a few years back when I worked at a company and at that time I was involved in content marketing.

In the first three months I felt immense stress and often couldn't sleep at night thinking about how to finish tasks and trying all sorts of ways to meet my goals. Once I'd worked for three or four

goals. Once I'd worked for three or four months and found a final working pass, my boss then asked me to keep repeating this exact method.

Since you've already found this effective approach, all you need to do is repeat it. But for myself, this day after day repetition caused me immense distress. And once I realized the job

distress. And once I realized the job task couldn't be changed, I quit and sort out new challenges instead.

And when I look at that business now, I see the person who took over is still doing the exact same things I did years ago. including many templates, methods

ago. including many templates, methods and styles that already left behind and over these past few years they've kept using the same approach or path which

still feels how to say not quite ideal to me.

So looking back now at that time I left the job I didn't really understand then what uncertainty or fragility even meant but that job resignation was in fact my gut-driven attempt to embrace

randomness.

Okay, this is the first way to embrace randomness. The second is to act to

randomness. The second is to act to shift the status quo. There's a joke I find quite amusing. Five frogs sit on a lily pad basking in the sun and four decide to leap into the pond to play.

So, how many frogs remain now on the lily pad? Feel free to share your answer

lily pad? Feel free to share your answer on the live chat. The answer is five since intent isn't action. Those four

frogs merely thought about jumping into play, but they never actually left. So

the situation stayed unchanged. I think

this joke is quite amusing and carries a deep lesson [laughter] that before we truly take actions we make or thoughts we conjure up in our minds are of no

use. So to inject randomness and break

use. So to inject randomness and break this fragile status quo. The key is to act not just to think this is crucial.

Okay. So after all that the key point we're after is to deliberately inject randomness into our lives. Okay. The

second tip, antif fragile practice is to leave residual room and build a buffer for risks. Residual means leaving room.

for risks. Residual means leaving room.

This is the most direct way to fight fragility. In life, we often face the

fragility. In life, we often face the choice of whether to leave ample buffer room. For instance, the recent trend of

room. For instance, the recent trend of special forces style tourism where tight schedules and heavy tasks make our trips extremely packed. So when we plan our

extremely packed. So when we plan our itineraries, we tend to pack them to the brim with activities. Say fly in the morning. Then once you land a play for

morning. Then once you land a play for hours, then take a high-speed rail to a new city in the afternoon. And then

what? At night, fill each hour to the brim. Many people and indeed in society,

brim. Many people and indeed in society, there is a trend that promotes special [snorts] forces style tourism. Hey,

you'd think, look how great my planning skills are. Just look at how well it

skills are. Just look at how well it worked. I visited three cities in two

worked. I visited three cities in two days. It seems great, but in truth, it

days. It seems great, but in truth, it leaves little room for setbacks. For

instance, if a flight is delayed once it is, it will greatly disrupt our future plans and schedule. A direct consequence of the delay would be if it's delayed by hours or even half a day our booked

highspeed rail tickets and train tickets might just be wasted. If we booked a hotel as well, you might have to cancel that hotel booking. You'd have to negotiate and perhaps the tickets you

booked for the next day were booked. But

this single flight delay triggered a chain of events that pushed our remaining plans far beyond our control entirely. We have to either pay a much

entirely. We have to either pay a much higher price to act now and cut our losses. For instance, this flight might

losses. For instance, this flight might be delayed for hours, but there is another flight now that departs right away and can get you to your afternoon destination. But his ticket is pricey

destination. But his ticket is pricey since it's for last minute flight. This

one is the most costly. Would you be willing to pay those few thousand more to cut your losses? No. Some people

might just grit their teeth and pay those fees since you have no choice at this point. A delay might affect some of

this point. A delay might affect some of your scheduled plans for tomorrow, possibly leading to missed events or other issues. So, you have no choice but

other issues. So, you have no choice but to accept this costly option. Which is

why I don't want this to happen to me personally. There are many folks who

personally. There are many folks who live a moonlight lifestyle, spending all their monthly income with no savings and no emergency funds left over. Many

people once they get their paychecks plow them into investments real estate and leave little cash on hand. This

financial setup is indeed quite risky and unstable, including myself. I don't

tend to keep large sums in long-term fixed deposits since I can't tell when I might need cash all of a sudden. If you

save for 10 or 20 years, there's no way.

So, one should try to avoid doing such things too. And even the allocation of

things too. And even the allocation of public resources aims for peak efficiency. No space is left unused.

efficiency. No space is left unused.

Everything is arranged with perfect precision.

In the short term, this seems to save cost. Yet, the pivotal shift hinges on

cost. Yet, the pivotal shift hinges on whether any unexpected events arise.

There was a line in the book that struck me as quite clever. It said that in the short term, redundancy buffer seems like a waste. If no mishap occurs, then the

a waste. If no mishap occurs, then the redundancy buffer would serve no purpose. But the key point is that

purpose. But the key point is that accidents will always happen. Though we

don't know when they might strike to me, keeping ample redundancy means giving oneself more options and several fallback routes. I have deeply felt this

fallback routes. I have deeply felt this myself.

I used to be extremely optimistic and didn't believe any mishaps could [laughter] occur. I'm doing well now and

[laughter] occur. I'm doing well now and things are going quite smoothly. But

lately, I've come to see that mishaps can strike at any moment. We need to be wellprepared money and this or that. So,

I won't push myself into a truly desperate or hopeless situation.

Well, perhaps in many cases, indeed, in most situations, keeping a surplus of perch is just a minor waste. But at this point, we need to do the math. The first

tally is what cost do we pay for fresh fish and can we afford that cost. The

second calculation is if we leave no buffer, what losses might we face if a risk hits and what is the worst case scenario? Can we afford it? If uh

scenario? Can we afford it? If uh

suppose I've spent all my money already and on the surface my job still seems quite stable with income coming in each month. But if say some crisis were to

month. But if say some crisis were to strike and we had no funds left, what sort of losses might that potentially cause? When you make such a calculation,

cause? When you make such a calculation, most people might just then realize the necessity of having a safety net. Yet

many folks don't realize they should tally this some. So for myself, I'd prefer to keep more options and fallback roots open for the future. And you?

Well, this is the second way to boost our anti-fragility. Fourth, reject the

our anti-fragility. Fourth, reject the middle path. Embrace extreme asymmetry.

middle path. Embrace extreme asymmetry.

In antifragile, the barbell strategy is nasim. Nicholas Taleb's core idea

nasim. Nicholas Taleb's core idea relying on polarized do setups. Discard

the middle parts balance to gain antifragility losses. Help gains are

antifragility losses. Help gains are boundless. As for this point here, we

boundless. As for this point here, we touched on this in our previous episode on such probabilities. His core idea is to abandon the murky middle ground and

focus resources on the two extremes. One

extreme is avoiding extreme risks. The

other is chasing infinite gains to hedge against uncertainty.

In this book, Nasim Nicholas Taylor provides a more detailed account of embracing extreme asymmetry. He did not provide such a detailed explanation in his previous book. And in this book, my

grasp of rejecting the middle path will be a bit deeper. You see, the education we've received all along has emphasized the middle path. We love the way of the

middle path. But in Nasim Nicholas

middle path. But in Nasim Nicholas Taylor's view, the flaw with the middle path is that it seeks balance between risk and reward.

This often leads to a fragile state with both high risk and low returns. For

instance, if we split our funds evenly between stocks and bonds, we might think, "Look, I'm not putting all my eggs in one basket. That's smart." Then

when a single stock experiences swings, I can bear the losses it brings and they won't be too severe. But the issue here is that you still face stock market

volatility without reaping outside gains. This point truly gave me a rather

gains. This point truly gave me a rather different and profound realization. You

see the barbell structure he mentioned 90% is safe aiming for absolute stability completely avoid extreme losses offering

a floor for the system for instance when we invest we put 90% of our funds into an extremely safe environment where they cannot be lost at all like treasury

bonds or fixedterm deposits. No matter

what you do, your 90% safety fund stays intact.

So for the safety of your overall wealth, this is extremely helpful in any market swing. You still have funds to

market swing. You still have funds to use and won't fall apart. Then there's a 10% allocated to extreme risk deliberately exposed to high risk assets

since high risk brings high returns.

Even in the worst case where this 10% is lost entirely, the loss would amount to just 10% of our total wealth. This 10%

is acceptable for young people making it a strategy with limited losses. And if

that 10% due to high risk gained high returns, then that very 10% might just it could then bring us massive gains and huge returns of great magnitude. So we

should pursue ventures with limitless gains yet relatively low levels of uncertainty. This was a profound lesson

uncertainty. This was a profound lesson for us, at least for me. And he also gave an example from the workplace. For

instance, when we're working, we shouldn't aim to do just average jobs at some random company. If there's a job or career you truly wish to pursue like

writing books or something along those lines, you could do research or become a travel blogger or something along those lines. The best is to have a calm,

lines. The best is to have a calm, stable public sector job with ease.

It can provide a baseline level of income for us. For instance, even if you don't care about pay, the firm can still cover five social insurancees and housing fund. You still get a few

housing fund. You still get a few thousand yet. It won't be hectic or

thousand yet. It won't be hectic or cause much stress. At the same time, we can dedicate much of our spare time to high potential side jobs or skill development. Like creating content for

development. Like creating content for self media, building apps on your own or working in I or starting up in crossber e-commerce, the time and effort you invest here are limited. But once the

side hustle takes off, it could yield income far beyond your main job and even shift your career path. So we should aim if there's a career you wish to pursue then this is the path to choose. I think

back to my past career plans. The route

through tech giants I once followed was essentially the middle path. Neither

stable nor ambitious enough and I have no plan to save up for years and then join SOE in the future. So if this industry faces turbulence or downturn in

the future, I might then be ruthlessly weeded out during such transformations.

Because with tech giants, there's also the 35 crisis which might leave you jobless. Then even if you had become a

jobless. Then even if you had become a leader by then, if you weren't one of the top executives at the core, you'd still be quite at risk.

And it seems it won't offer you stable dividends or anything akin to a choice along the middle path. And what is most important because tech giants are busy

and they take up all my time from morning till night. So I have almost no time to pursue side jobs especially with the immense work pressure that leaves you with none. It drains not just your

time but far more your very mental energy. For instance, after a long day

energy. For instance, after a long day you get home at 11 p.m. and say you study for an hour. In truth, you have no extra energy left to learn like a phone whose battery is completely drained.

you have no time left at all to even bother studying. So this approach is

bother studying. So this approach is indeed not good or if your goal is to make lots of money and pursue this middle pass lifestyle.

It simply isn't a fit for me. So this

was a major lesson for me personally.

But safety is something we must stress.

Extreme safety is key and its core is avoiding collapse.

So we shouldn't pursue things that carry even moderate risk. that is strictly forbidden. For instance, let's take this

forbidden. For instance, let's take this investing. Our so-called extreme safety

investing. Our so-called extreme safety would not mean buying some stocks or funds since at their core these are still not entirely risk-free endeavors.

So, if we were to invest, we definitely buy treasury bonds or such. This

aggressiveness must entail limited losses and the losses we bear must be clearly bounded. For instance, if we invest

bounded. For instance, if we invest 100,000 yen, we must be ready to lose that sum. But at the same time, it won't

that sum. But at the same time, it won't exceed that 100,000. Even if it fails, it won't jeopardize the remaining 90% of

my safety. Thus, this point is highly

my safety. Thus, this point is highly critical and deserves special emphasis.

Don't try to keep your steady job while diving head first into startups or you'll lose both ends. All right, let's recap. The core of the belt structure

recap. The core of the belt structure lies in deliberately building uncertainty.

This lets us maintain our core base while still seizing those extra gains in the face of uncertainty and this is anti-fragility. The state where one does

anti-fragility. The state where one does not fear volatility but can harness it for growth. Lastly, build proactive

for growth. Lastly, build proactive nonlinear structures. Nonlinear is a

nonlinear structures. Nonlinear is a term Nasim Nicholas Tale used in anti-fragility's core math principles.

The essence of antifragility is that systems show a positive nonlinear response to volatility.

This sounds abstract, but the concept is actually quite simple. How does a thing respond to shocks? For instance, when an event occurs, how does it react? There

are roughly two types, linear and nonlinear. These two response patterns

nonlinear. These two response patterns determine whether something is fragile, robust or antifragile.

What is linearity? It's 1 + 1 = 2. We

put in one effort, get one gain, yet face great losses and immense pain at the same time. Its input and output are in direct ratio. And this state

corresponds to resilience, fluctuations, neither benefit nor hmet, maintaining a steady equilibrium.

There's also nonlinear response where input and output aren't proportional, showing asymmetry. And this asymmetry we

showing asymmetry. And this asymmetry we just mentioned that determines whether something is fragile or anti-fragile.

When input and output are proportional, there are two types positive nonlinear, negative nonlinear.

So this idea is still quite abstract to grasp clearly. But let me give an

grasp clearly. But let me give an example. Say you invest 100,000 R&B and

example. Say you invest 100,000 R&B and can earn at most 10,000 R&B, but once it loses it might drop by 50,000 RMBB, meaning his losses would far outstrip

our gains.

would outstrip gains effect. This is a negative nonlinear case. And positive

nonlinear effects are clear gains have a bigger impact than losses. That is to say, if we invest 100,000 R&B in a startup, the worst that could happen is we lose those 100,000 R&B. But if it succeeds, we might gain a million or

even 10 million R&B, his losses are kept. But the gains he could reap are

kept. But the gains he could reap are limitless. So what we're doing is this

limitless. So what we're doing is this asymmetric setup limited risk infinite gains and that is antifragile at its core. So let's recap. To achieve

core. So let's recap. To achieve

antifragile the key is to build proactive nonlinear structures. Let

things show limited loss and boundless gains in a volatile environment. Does

that still sound a bit basic? But once

you think about it, it makes sense.

Okay, let's recap. If we want to fight fragility, what are the five methods?

The first step is to actively embrace stress just right, we must acknowledge that we might currently be in a fragile state and we need to use just a bit of

stress to make ourselves more resilient.

Second, break your obsession with certainty and actively at randomness.

If our lives are driven by an overzealous chase for certainty, they tend to be quite fragile, we must not

fear change, nor any risk. Those who

cling to the status quo and dread change are inherently fragile.

To introduce fragility, one way is to create systematic rules, define intervention limits, and act decisively.

Third, leave room to spare in life and build a buffer against risks. We

shouldn't plan for everything with rigid rules. Do not see caged fish as a waste

rules. Do not see caged fish as a waste for accidents will happen [laughter] and we cannot know when they will strike.

Would we want to have one more option, one more way to fall back on? Cagefish

indeed serves precisely this purpose.

Fourth, embrace extremes. Reject the

middle path. Embrace extreme asymmetry.

What we must reject is the vague middle ground. allocate resources to both

ground. allocate resources to both extremes. One is ultra risk averse, the

extremes. One is ultra risk averse, the other aims for boundless games to hedge against uncertainty.

In the end, it means proactively building positive nonlinear structures to pursue limited risk and infinite gains.

The points I listed above are my own summaries. They may overlap somewhat

summaries. They may overlap somewhat like this check, the middle path and positive nonlinear structure. They may

overlap a bit, but I think that to help me grasp it better and for everyone else to understand it better, I still broke it down. You can also reframe your

it down. You can also reframe your understanding of this book, all the underlying principles based on your own views. Okay, in the final part, we must

views. Okay, in the final part, we must still remind ourselves I am quite fragile. I watched on Billy Billy a

fragile. I watched on Billy Billy a video on startup reflections. Its

creator shared with genuine sincerity.

They told me they had ample resources, had built up tens of thousands of users, and even 4,500 SU users. Yet, it still ended in failure. Why then? The final

straw that broke them was just one thing. The investor funding ran dry.

thing. The investor funding ran dry.

This incident highlights precisely why fragile thinking is so critical. Many

people, including the founder, failed to realize that their business structure and model were in fact extremely fragile.

They failed to grasp the core of the issue. Why? Because the product wasn't

issue. Why? Because the product wasn't profitable. their so income came from

profitable. their so income came from investor funds. But even more critical

investor funds. But even more critical is that this firm employs over 30 staff.

That cost is way too high. In my view, their product isn't complex. It's an AI based video editing tool, a software

utility. But having a team of over 30 is

utility. But having a team of over 30 is in itself a gravely flawed business move. Let's do the math. Suppose an

move. Let's do the math. Suppose an

employee earns just 5,000 R&B monthly plus the five social insuranceances and housing fund costs. Just for staff costs, the firm spends nearly 200k a month plus venue rent, utility bills,

and marketing costs. Just imagine how high his monthly fixed costs must be. So

you see each month you burn like dozens of tens. You're so revenue source. Your

of tens. You're so revenue source. Your

product isn't profitable. So you must rely on investors. Why would they fund you? Or perhaps a senior has deemed

you? Or perhaps a senior has deemed there's no way. There truly isn't. Thus,

this single and unhealthy revenue stream, this high-cost model is inherently rife with fragility and instability. He is deeply reliant on

instability. He is deeply reliant on outside funds. Like a patient who lives

outside funds. Like a patient who lives on oxygen tank, the moment it is removed, their entire system would collapse in an instant.

An investor's cash flow drying up is never a black swan event. It is in fact a highly likely occurrence, just whether it strikes you or not. and

wing early or late is the hallmark of this fragile mode. A delay was one or perhaps his training was an inevitable outcome. So we must always remind

outcome. So we must always remind ourselves that we are inherently fragile. This isn't to amplify our

fragile. This isn't to amplify our anxieties but to spot risks early and proactively build antifragile resilience. This is vital. So both of

resilience. This is vital. So both of us, those of you who listen to this episode and I ourselves should now reflect on whether our lives are fragile. What parts in our lives have we

fragile. What parts in our lives have we overlooked? Those truly fragile aspects

overlooked? Those truly fragile aspects we must now recognize and address proactively.

Well, that's it for today's episode.

Thanks for tuning in. See you all next time.