Russian Strike Shuts Down Ukraine; Kiev Cities Go Dark; Zelensky Army Chiefs Publicly Row; Pokrovsk

Today is Sunday, 9th November, 2025.

And uh let me remind you again before I proceed with this program to uh tick the like button. If once you've seen and

like button. If once you've seen and listened to this program, you've decided that you've liked this program or whatever part of the program you've um

chosen to watch and decide that you wish to indicate that fact. Now today's

program will be devoted almost entirely to the situation in Ukraine. Though I do want to say something about the situation in Venezuela before um this

program ends. But let me first of all

program ends. But let me first of all begin by returning to a topic that I discussed in my program yesterday and

that is the pro the enormous massive Russian missile and drone attack

which I spoke about yesterday but um which took place the night before and I think it has now become clear that

This was perhaps the single most devastating attack the Russians have launched against Ukraine's energy system up to

this point. According to the Ukrainians,

this point. According to the Ukrainians, something like 500 drones and missiles were launched in total.

Mostly these uh targeted, as far as I can tell, energy installations.

Um, the Ukrainians claim that the bulk of the missiles that the Russians launched were groundbased Iscander

ballistic missiles. The Russians

ballistic missiles. The Russians themselves say that they launched Kinja's hypersonic missiles which are of

course air launched from Mig 31 um uh fighter jets. And apparently the Russian Navy, the Black Sea Fleet was

also involved and some Khalib subsonic cruise missiles were also launched. But

mostly according to the Ukrainians, the the bulk of the missiles were ground launched. And this is becoming, by the

launched. And this is becoming, by the way, a characteristic development in this war. The Russians

have apparently come to the decision that the most effective way to attack Ukraine today. I in terms of missile

Ukraine today. I in terms of missile launches is with ground launched missiles.

And I think there is actually a very simple reason for this.

When Russian bombers take off from their air bases, the fact is monitored by Western

intelligence agencies. They then advise

intelligence agencies. They then advise the Ukrainians that these bombers um have taken off and the Ukrainians

apparently have something like 3 hours warning before the subsonic cruise missiles arrive.

When Russia launches groundbased ballistic missiles, by contrast, there is scarcely any

warning at all. And the same is true of Kinjal missiles. The Mig 31s

Kinjal missiles. The Mig 31s um themselves are high supersonic aircraft.

um they can apparently in a clean condition um operate at around three times the speed of sound, but when they're carrying missiles, they

obviously operate at lower speeds. But

anyway, they can take off uh fly to their positions very fast and then of course once the hypersonic missiles are

launched um they reach their targets in just a few minutes. So again, there is

hardly any warning provided.

And what has I suspect up to now held the Russians back from operating conducting these strikes

mostly with Iscander missiles. The

reason why they have up to now been deploying bombers um ra and subsonic cruise missiles launched from bomb

bombers mostly in their strikes is because there simply haven't been enough uh uh is the ballistic missiles. Um

these are large complex rocket missiles.

They take time to build up and presumably the production of these Iscandanda missiles is now large enough

that the Russians can conduct strikes using them against Ukrainian targets.

Anyway, the long and the short of it is that the Ukrainians again claimed that there were about 450 drones, mostly Geran drones involved in

this strike. They claim to have shot

this strike. They claim to have shot down around 400 of them. Who's to say? I

don't think that's very likely myself.

But their success rate in shooting down ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles is, as they themselves acknowledge, very very much lower. And

I'm going to suggest even lower than the Ukrainians themselves say. For the record, though

themselves say. For the record, though the Ukrainians have at many occasions claimed success in shooting down Kinja

hypersonic missiles, the Russians categorically deny that that is the case and insist that in every case um

hypersonic missiles, Kinja missiles once they have been launched have managed to hit the targets. Anyway, um this is what

the Russians are saying that there was well the sorry the Ukrainians are saying that there was a mix of different types of missiles used but mostly these were

ballistic missiles, Iscanda missiles and um and hypersonic missiles rather than cruise missiles. Regardless, it is clear

cruise missiles. Regardless, it is clear that most of the missiles did hit their targets. Even the Ukrainians acknowledge

targets. Even the Ukrainians acknowledge this and the results in general have been devastating. Um yesterday the

been devastating. Um yesterday the Ukrainian energy authorities were saying that all Ukraine's thermal power plants

were out of action. There are um harrowing pictures and films of um one of these

power stations um with smoke rising from it in various locations again suggesting very extensive damage. Um there are

pictures of the city of Kiev plunged in darkness and with the only lights coming from

passing passenger cars. There are there were reports yesterday that the uh most of the cities many of the cities in Ukra

across Ukraine were suffering blackouts and the Ukrainian authorities were saying that the time necessary to repair

the damage and to restore power would be considerable. And even just before I

considerable. And even just before I started making this program, there was another comment by the Ukrainians saying that

the despite the fact that some power has been restored in some places and though repairs are still underway, the extent

of the damage makes restoration of power complicated.

Now the Ukrainian foreign minister Mr. Ciga is also alleging that the Russians

attacked two nuclear power substations rather I should explain two substations electricity substations attached to nuclear power plants. The

implication, I suppose, being that the Russians were seeking to reduce electricity flow to the nuclear power

stations, which would of course make their operation impractical or perhaps dangerous. Now, as of the time of making

dangerous. Now, as of the time of making this program, I have seen no confirmation of that or denial of that

either from any Russian source. Um, this

is a claim made by the Ukrainian foreign minister. The Russians up to now have

minister. The Russians up to now have consistently avoided attacking the nuclear power plants or facilities that are connected to them. I don't myself

believe that that has changed, but um we will no doubt learn more about that over the next couple of days. I suspect that

this is again an attempt by the Ukrainian foreign minister to rally international support for Ukraine at this time. He particularly mentioned

this time. He particularly mentioned Ukraine needing support from India and

China. Um, in which case if this is if

China. Um, in which case if this is if the actual information he has provided is untrue,

well perhaps what his comment does is highlight further the disastrous situation with the

Ukrainian energy system that Ukraine is now facing. that they're doing

now facing. that they're doing everything they can and saying whatever they can in order to get international support. Having said that, I want to

support. Having said that, I want to make it clear that I don't know whether or not this allegation is true or untrue.

I am guessing that it is untrue based on previous Russian behavior. If the

Russians are indeed now attacking substations connected to nuclear power plants, then that is a major escalation

and perhaps a further sign that events in Ukraine are coming to a head and that the major Russian offensive is about to

begin. The the major big perhaps final

begin. The the major big perhaps final Russian offensive is about to begin.

Anyway, let's um discuss briefly some of the comments that have been made about this attack. There is much discussion and speculation about what

the Russians are trying to do it as a result of these attacks. I mean,

are they trying to knock out the entire energy system? And by the way, I should

energy system? And by the way, I should also say the internet system, the Ukrainian internet, which is also badly affected yesterday. Are they trying to

affected yesterday. Are they trying to completely disable these systems in a

way that would cause a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine? or are they

instead, as various uh reports say, mostly on the Russian side of the internet, are they trying to reduce the

um Ukrainian energy system to a crisis level, deepening the sense of crisis and

tension within Ukrainian society, obliging Ukraine to divert resources to deal with the problems?

of caused by the attack on the energy system h and worry about what that

means. Are they going to do all of those

means. Are they going to do all of those things except and then hang back from

its total destruction at the very last point? Well, I think the most plausible explanation about what the Russians are trying to do is

one given two years ago by John Helmer on his blog, Dancing with Bears.

um when he discussed the very first strikes the Russians conducted against the Ukrainian energy system and said that

he'd received advice from an American technician that the Russians were um working out all the elements, all the

component parts of the Ukrainian energy system ahead of What would be the devastating

final strike before the last great offensive, the one that would bring the Russian army all the way

to Kiev before that major attack came, the attack which would be intended to paralyze all communication and all

transport in Ukraine at the time of that offensive and I suspect that that remains the case. Uh that the Russians

are degrading and weakening the system.

By now they must know how it works very well and how repairs are organized and what resources the Ukrainians have to

carry them out. The Russians must know all of that. But they are not going to completely turn it off now until the

moment comes when they will launch their final offensive towards Kiev itself. um aiming

presumably at that point to achieve the removal of the current Ukrainian government which some Russian

officials Midva for example and to some extent Lavough too have made it fairly obvious that that is what they want they

want to see. So that I suspect is what the Russians are trying to do here.

They're also, of course, doing something else, which is that they're depleting constantly Ukraine's air defense system.

To all intents and purposes, it has proved completely ineffective. Whatever

successes the Ukrainians might have had shooting down cruise missiles, subsonic cruise missiles that the Russians were launching, we can clearly see that

they're not able to replicate that success against ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles, all of which or most of which appear to be getting

through. So having said that, the

through. So having said that, the Russians will want to keep the Ukrainians and their Western allies trying. They will want Ukraine to

trying. They will want Ukraine to continue to deplete its Patriot missile arsenal such as it is um further because

the Russians will probably in conjunction with that big ground offensive that I've just been talking about want to use their air force to

conduct strikes on Ukrainian positions ahead of that offensive. And on that point, as I discussed in a program yesterday, the Russian Air Force

continues to increase in in size.

There's been a second batch of Su Hoy 34 fighter bombers supplied to the Russian Air Force. This just after an earlier

Air Force. This just after an earlier batch supplied in October. We don't know the

size of these batches. Some say that it's as few as two per batch. I think

it's four, and I have reasons to think that, but I'm not going to discuss th that in these programs. Anyway, um the

Russians increasing the number of their fighter bombers and also um increasing the the number of their FAB precisiong

guided bombs. And as I discussed in a

guided bombs. And as I discussed in a recent program, they've now installed jet engines on some of these bombs, which has very considerably incre in

increased the range at which these bomb these particular bombs can now be used.

So anyway, a major attack on Ukraine by the Russians, perhaps the most devastating attack up to now. Now before

I stop discussing the attack itself, let me just say that of course the Russians do give their own explanation, their own

reasons for this these attacks. They say

that they conduct these attacks on the Ukrainian energy system in retaliation for Ukraine's

attacks on Russia's energy system, the refineries, uh the power stations, these attacks that Ukraine regularly tries to

carry out using its own small homemade drones. I have to say straight away that

drones. I have to say straight away that I do not believe that explanation. It

seems to me that the Russian offensive against the Ukrainian energy system began in autumn of 2022,

long before the Ukrainians were able to conduct strikes against Russia's energy system. Just saying there is also such a

system. Just saying there is also such a massive imbalance in terms of the damage done. The Russian strikes

done. The Russian strikes have managed to knock out pretty much the entire power supply

across Ukraine or at least enough of it to cause blackouts right across the whole country and in all major Ukrainian

cities. The Ukrainian attacks, by

cities. The Ukrainian attacks, by contrast, have achieved at most brief

interruptions of power in a tiny number of Russian cities and apparently briefly

in one of the micro districts of Moscow.

And well, this whole missile offensive gives every every indication of having

been meticulously and thoroughly planned. I said that the reason the

planned. I said that the reason the Russians are now using iscanda missiles, ballistic missiles, far more than was

true previously is because they must have ramped up production of these missiles to the point where they can use them in this way. And of course that

must imply by definition for knowledge that they would be used in that way. It

is a further example of forward planning and the Russians obviously must be selecting their targets carefully. It

seems to me a certainty that each one of these attacks, very sophisticated and complex attacks using different kinds of missiles, different kinds of um

launchers, MIG 31 fighter jets, ground launchers, different types of Iscander missiles also by the way. And all of this

coordinated with huge drone attacks as well. All of that suggests that each of

well. All of that suggests that each of these strikes, these big Russian strikes, are meticulously

and thoroughly planned in advance.

And they're carried out according to these plans. And by the way, the degree

these plans. And by the way, the degree of coordination and the degree of control over the drones and the missiles that the Russians are able to show when

they conduct these strikes is enormously impressive and on a much much greater scale than what we used to see when this

offensive, this missile offensive first started in the autumn of 2022.

So all of that argues to me against these being a lot more than just ret acts of retaliation. I ought to say that when the Russians first launched their

missile strikes in the autumn of 2022 against Ukraine, they argued they claimed that they were responding to a

Ukrainian bombing attack on the Kch bridge, the Crimean bridge. Now, the

reason of course has changed, but I don't take any of these reasons for retaliation or alleged retaliation at

all seriously. This is clearly a planned

all seriously. This is clearly a planned offensive, meticulously prepared with the initial PRA planning probably having

taken place as long ago as the summer and autumn of 2022.

So, anyway, there we are. That's this

massive Russian attack to which the Ukrainians have no response and the Western powers have no response

which probably explains the complete silence that there is or not complete but the overwhelming silence there is

about these attacks. Now, way back in the spring and early summer, President Trump used to complain about Russian

missile strikes on Kiev. He's now

choosing to stay silent about them. The

media in Britain and in Europe and in the United States too, by the way, hardly covers them anymore. Even though

these strikes are becoming increasingly more powerful and more devastating, all of this is signs are clear signs,

clear signals that Western governments know that they cannot supply Ukraine with air defense systems to try to

counter these missiles and drones. s

that all attempts to do so have been a failure. That all that they have

failure. That all that they have achieved is to deplete catastrophically the West's own inventories of air

defense missiles and to expose their weakness, their inability to counter Russian missile

strikes, missile and drone strikes of this kind. So despite the fact that

this kind. So despite the fact that Ukraine, the country, the west is still encouraging

in its war against UK, Russia, it's still cheering the Ukrainians on. At least the European

Ukrainians on. At least the European governments continue to do so and continue to insist that they are there supporting Ukraine for as long as it

takes, even as the lights go dark across Ukraine, even as the Ukrainian

civilian population is suffering ever greater privations

and must fear the onset of what is apparently threatening to be already a very cold winter.

Western governments, Western media are saying as little about this strike and all of the latest strikes that they can.

Anyway, that's the situation with this enormous missile strike. The fact that it has taken place, by the way, continues to show that the Russians

remain in an implacable mood. Those who still expect that there will be a negotiated settlement um of this conflict perhaps

ought to notice the fact that the Russian military at least is behaving in a way that suggests that they do not

expect that to happen. Anyway, that is that is the missile strike. Now, it

would be remiss of me having started with developments in the war not to say something about the ground situation as well. And of course, the gate the main u

well. And of course, the gate the main u the main story continues to be Pakarovsk.

There's been less information from the Russian defense ministry about the situation in Pakovsk and Kian and indeed across the entire conflict lines over

the last 24 hours. And this is actually quite standard because it's the weekend and the Russians generally give less

information on the weekend until they provide a comprehensive summary of the events of

the entire week which they will probably do in a few hours. So I don't have much more information about the

situation in Pakarovsk and Kian um than I did yesterday.

But such information that I do have suggests that the situation in both places continues to get more and more

critical for the unlucky Ukrainian troops who are trapped in these two towns. So,

towns. So, as I said in my program yesterday, it is now widely acknowledged that the entire

Ukrainian force or what's left of it that was in Pakovsk has now transferred to Mirror.

So, that Pakovsk is effectively now under Russian control. I have seen footage of Russian military police

taking up positions inside various parts of Pakosk. They're entering Pakovsk in

of Pakosk. They're entering Pakovsk in uh motor vehicles and you can see them setting up checkpoints at various points

in the town. All of that consistent with mopping up operations and the Russians now establishing or tightening their

control. There are no doubt some

control. There are no doubt some Ukrainian troops still isolated from each other in various parts of

Bakarovsk, but the Russians will hunt them down and hopefully they will have the good sense

to surrender, in which case they have a high chance of being returned to Ukraine and perhaps even reunited with their

families. is anyway that's bac

families. is anyway that's bac the Russians continue to claim that um they are tightening their positions in

Mirnograd.

They say that um they have managed to um gain more ground there. One of the Russian commanders who has been

providing information to TAS has again spoken of how his troops are advancing on the east bank of the Oscar River and there are some reports also that the

Russians continue to advance on the west bank too. Um

bank too. Um all of the indications as I said in Corpian Pakovsk continue to speak of Russian advances in both of these

places. Now in Mirnograd it's been

places. Now in Mirnograd it's been suggested that the total number of Ukrainian troops who are essentially blocked there and when I say blocked in

Mirnograd it's worth saying that now that the Russians control Bakros the siege of Mirnogrd has become even

tighter. Anyway, there are reports that

tighter. Anyway, there are reports that the total number of Ukrainian troops holding

together in North West Mirnograd numbers around 2,000 and I think that is a realistic number.

The Russians, the Kremlin, Pescov said some days ago, about 10 days ago, that there were 5 and a half thousand Ukrainian troops um cut off inside the

Pakovsk cauldron.

I'm guessing that that was about correct. Um, some of these troops will

correct. Um, some of these troops will still be in Pakovsk. Others will be scattered in various other places around the cauldron, including, by the way, in

southern Mirrad. In such places,

southern Mirrad. In such places, several hundreds have probably been killed trying to escape

or in fighting.

I can imagine that that 5 a half thousand has now whittleled down to an

organized force that numbers just 2,000.

And it has been suggested that what the Russians want is for this entire force to lay down its arms and surrender

because that would have obviously enormous media advantages for them.

precisely for that reason. Of course,

Zalinski opposes this. Well, again, we will see

opposes this. Well, again, we will see what happens. My guess is that at some

what happens. My guess is that at some point over the next couple of days, we will start to see mass surreners in

Pakovsk and almost certainly in Corpians, too.

So anyway, that's the state of the battle in these two places. Now, there

are further reports in other places as well. In Zaporia region, the Russians

well. In Zaporia region, the Russians continue their remorseless advance eastwards. As I said in my last program,

eastwards. As I said in my last program, they've now captured the village of Waspenovka, one of the fortified

villages on the Yansure River. And um

the encircumment of Gula Paulier now looks to be only perhaps one or two weeks away. Guessing here, but possibly.

weeks away. Guessing here, but possibly.

Um there have there has been video footage which shows the Russian ring around

Civer tightening still. Uh there's film footage showing a Russian soldier um in action

on the very western on the very eastern outskirts of Casque itself which strongly suggests that as the

Russian defense ministry claims fighting is indeed taking place inside Civer and the Russians have also apparently established positions just to the south

of Casque.

as well. So, there's probably some kind of fighting, urban fighting taking place in Casque, too.

And there's also reports that the Russians have advanced more deeply into Constantin.

And apparently, there's video footage of this as well. The Russians continue to be

on the offensive right across the entire contact line. I know of nowhere where

contact line. I know of nowhere where the Ukrainians are able to attack and I know of nowhere where the Ukrainians are

even mounting successful counterattacks anymore.

Now yesterday in my program I also debate discussed certain really extraordinarily different contradictory statements made

by the Ukrainian general staff and by Zalinski himself about the situation in Pakovsk. The general staff said that

Pakovsk. The general staff said that important decisions about Pakovsk had been made. They would be decided on

been made. They would be decided on purely military basis and they would not be publicized until until

the consequences of those decisions were made clear.

Zalinski by contrast insisted that Pak must be held at all costs. He spoke

about the importance of holding on to Pakovsk because of the terrible effect the fall of Bakovsk would have on

opinion in the west and in particular on the opinion of one individual. He didn't

name him but it was clear he was thinking about Donald Trump. Now, what I had not realized when I did my program yesterday is that these two divergent

statements, the one from the general staff and the one by Zalinski were made over the course of a meeting in Kiev at

which the chief of the of Ukraine's general staff, General Gnatov and Zalinski himself were both participating.

And given how different these statements are, they suggest that there is a major

quarrel, a major argument taking place.

As I understand it, Gatov on behalf of the Ukrainian general staff made the comments that I've discussed previously, the comments about the

Ukrainian general staff making important decisions.

the nature of which could not be disclosed and which would only be disclosed once their consequences were known.

So that was what Gnato said and he said that with Zalinski apparently sitting opposite him and Zalinski

justiculated and was clearly extremely unhappy.

And it was at this point that he rejoined that it was important to hold on to Pacrosk and to do everything

possible to hold on to Pakrosk because were Pakros to fall it would have this

potentially very damaging effect on opinion in the West.

I can't help but think that what we have seen what what this whole exchange shows it's a glimpse

of a furious row that is taking place between Zilinski and the military behind

the scenes. Now, this pits

the scenes. Now, this pits pitches the Ukrainian general staff, General Gnatov, against Zalinski and

Ukraine's political leadership.

I'm not sure where this leaves General Zilski, the overall military commander, whether he was even present at this meeting,

what he was doing exactly and whether he said anything over the course of this meeting, assuming he was even there. But

assuming that he was there, it is nonetheless interesting that it is another Ukrainian general, General

Gnatov, who appears to be arguing back at Zalinski about the conduct of the war

and is basically telling Zalinski, look, this is a crisis in Pacross.

We, the military, are going to have to deal with this. stop interfering it interfering with it and we are going to tell you what the results of what we're

going to do will be once we have done them.

I mean I cannot recall a moment in this war when any Ukrainian general has

spoken directly to Zilinski in that way.

Now when General Zulusni was the overall military commander in Ukraine, I used to read regularly in the two

Ukrainian um telegram channels resident and legitim discussions of the arguments that

supposedly raged between Zelusi and Zilinski about the conduct of the war.

Zelusni was always represented as the realist, the person who opposed offensives, the person who wanted to consolidate, the person who was worried

about the lives of the soldiers. Whereas

Zalinski was always the one who was prepared to sacrifice the soldiers who insisted that every millimeter of territory must be defended and who

always seem to be pursuing political objectives rather than military ones.

Now the problem with all of that was that always and invariably Zelusni carried out Zalinsk's orders

despite the fact that according to these two telegram channels he was always he was constantly pushing back against them

and there was never any public sign that he and Zalinski were in disagreement with each

In fact, the official line from Kie from the Ukrainian government was that the two worked well together and were in

harmony. Obviously, that wasn't so, but

harmony. Obviously, that wasn't so, but at least publicly they didn't quarrel.

Gnat apparently however considers that the situation is now so

bad that he is left with no choice. He

has to tell Zilinski look we are going to have to make these decisions. We

can't any longer defer to you because if we do, this disaster that we are in is going to continue just to go on getting

worse and worse and worse.

And this is the closest that the Ukrainian military appears to

me to have come to a repudiation, a rejection of Zilinsk's authority, a mutiny if you like against his

leadership.

Because this is what this exchange to me it seems amounts to. If Gatiff is

saying that he and the general staff are not going to discuss their decisions and everyone

must wait, everyone apparently including Zilinski himself must wait to see what

the outcome of those decisions is before being told about them. If that is what Gnatov

has been actually saying to Zilinski, then basically what he's telling Zilinski is, "Look, I'm not paying any attention to you anymore. I'm going to

run the war in my own way. If you want to try and sack me, do so, but I'm not going anywhere."

going anywhere." Well, not quite a coup yet,

but when we get into a situation when a soldier tells his commander, speaks to his commander in the way that Gnatv has

apparently been talking to Zalinski, forcing to Zalinski, his commander, to argue with him, then

that is obviously a sign that things are getting very bad and that we are indeed in a crisis. The big problem that

Ukraine of course has is that it is short of everything. It is short of men.

It is short of machines. It has no air cover.

Its artillery is almost invisible in the conflict now and from what I understand has been mostly pulled back to the west

bank of the Neper River.

It is no longer in a position to plug the holes in Ukraine's defense lines.

I'm going to just make one observation which perhaps highlights the extent

of Ukraine's manpower crisis. Um, one of the things that I have noticed

is that it is many weeks now, months in fact, since I last heard anything of the

47th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army. This brigade used to be considered

army. This brigade used to be considered Ukraine's best brigade. It was created with the assistance of the west in the

um winter of 2022.

Um the troops were trained, I believe, mostly by American and British instructors. The Germans may have been

instructors. The Germans may have been involved too, but anyway, by Western instructors. It was equipped with the

instructors. It was equipped with the Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and originally with the Leopard 2 tanks, though at some point it also received

the American Abraham's tanks. And it was the spearhead of Ukraine's summer 2023 counteroffensive, the one that was

supposed to break through to the Sea of Azor. And then when that

Azor. And then when that counteroffensive failed, this same brigade became Ukraine's fire brigade.

It was sent from one part of the front line to another, constantly closing the

gaps whenever the gaps appeared. So it

was sent to um Har to Kursk to it as I remember uh held positions

um north and west of of Devka after that town was captured by the Russians in February 2024.

There was no part, there was no place in the war where one didn't hear about it.

It's months now since I've heard about it. The last time I heard about the 47th

it. The last time I heard about the 47th Brigade, mechanized brigade, was at the time when the Russians were appeared

apparently actively conducting an offensive in Sunumi region and the 47th Mechanized Brigade or parts of it were

sent to Sunumi region to plug the holes and to slow down the Russians.

Since then, I've heard nothing more about it.

Whether this exhausted and shattered brigade has been with withdrawn to the rear finally for a refit, I simply don't

know. But the fact that there is so

know. But the fact that there is so little about said about it anymore suggests to me that it is in deep crisis

and that it is really no longer in any kind of condition to conduct operations anywhere on the battle fronts at this

time. So the story of that brigade, it

time. So the story of that brigade, it seems to me, points to the larger story that Ukraine is facing at this point in

the war. Well, there it is. It's um a

the war. Well, there it is. It's um a very difficult situation for Ukraine.

I think that Ukraine is at its worst and darkest moment since the war. since the

start of the war.

It's in a much more critical position than the one it was in at the time of the at the start of the war when the

Russian tank columns arrived outside Kiev.

At that time, as Larry Johnson has recently pointed out, by the way, on his blog, Sonar 21, the Russians had no real plan and no actual intention of storming

Kiev itself. They wanted to push the

Kiev itself. They wanted to push the Ukrainians towards negotiations. And

negotiations did take place. And it

seemed for a time as if there was going to be an agreement which was of course the Istanbul agreement which was initialed in April 2022

but which Ukraine following the advice or instructions of the West walked back on.

Anyway, I think this is the worst moment for Ukraine. Its army

for Ukraine. Its army is withering away on the battlefields.

The general staff look like they're in semi-open revolts against the

country's president who is Zalinski. My

guess is that Zalinsk's extraordinary comments of the last couple of days, which I've discussed in recent programs, he's claimed that in Kian, for example,

it's the Ukrainians, the Russians surrounded, not the other way round, were for many Ukrainian officers,

including officers of the general staff, essentially the last straw. And well, as I said, they're now apparently openly

pushing back against his authority. The

economy is in deep crisis with money apparently said to run out in March and

um fears of hyperinflation. Beyond that,

the only funding plan at the moment is the plan the European Commission came up with a few weeks ago to tap basically

to seize the Russian assets and to hand them over to Ukraine, but to pretend that this has all been done as part of some kind of reparations loan.

The Belgian government however has rejected that proposal outright.

A discussion took place on Friday between the European Commission and the Belgian government and the Belgian government stood its ground. It's not

prepared to incur or risk the enormous financial penalties if this plan proceeds.

And the European Commission apparently is now busy warning Western governments that European governments that unless

this original plan to use the Russian assets is acted upon then financially the situation will

become desperate.

EU states will face ballooning deficits and debt and debt unless they agree to use these frozen ash Russian assets at

least as collateral at least that's what they they claim and um the alternatives um would be either joint borrowing in

other words euro bonds which would be deeply unpopular in Germany as I've discussed or direct grants both of which as apparently according to the Financial

Times. Even the EU Commission

Times. Even the EU Commission acknowledges both of which would affect directly affect national budgets and

increase public debt which is already ballooning across Europe. So there is

no full guarantee that more funding for Ukraine will be provided.

At least Zalinski cannot assume at this moment that it will. And Ukrainian

troops are surrounded in Kian and Pacros. Thousands of them. And the

Pacros. Thousands of them. And the

Russians are breaking through in Zaporosia region and are likely once Prosk and Corpansk falls to advance

further towards the Neper and to encircle the remaining Ukrainian troops in Donbass in Slavansk and Kamatsk.

Ukraine's situation has never been worse.

And to say it frankly, I think that if trends continue as they are, then at some point within

the next couple of months, as the British journalist Roger Boy said in a recent article in the London Times, it

could be that Ukraine will suffer a terminal blow.

Anyway, it didn't need to be this way.

The Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavough has now resurfaced. There's a

lot of speculation a couple of days ago about the fact that he didn't attend the Security Council meeting in Moscow at

which um Putin solicited opinions from other senior members of the Russian leadership in light of President Trump's comments

about the United States resuming nuclear testing. And many people noticed the

testing. And many people noticed the fact that Lavough wasn't there. And

there were some claims which the Kremlin categorically dis denied. There were

some claims that Lavough was in disfavor. Well, he clearly isn't in

disfavor. Well, he clearly isn't in disfavor and he's given a blockbuster interview to the Russian Nory news

agency which I will turn to in a moment.

One point I would make is that Lavro himself is not asked in this interview or in another interview that he's given on a a

more um specific subject which is Russian arm sales or in various other public comments that he has made. He has

made no comment, no explan given no explanation for his absence from that security

council meeting that took place a few days ago. And I noticed that the

days ago. And I noticed that the journalists who have interviewed him didn't ask him about his act absence,

which strongly suggests to me that they were told in advance

not to ask those sorts of questions. And

I am sorry to say that that reinforces my view that the advice I recently received that

the reason for Lavro's absence from the security council meeting was because he

had been put in a safe place in case of a Ukrainian or American decapitation.

strike on the Russian leadership who all gathered together in one place. It looks

to me as if that explanation must have been true. Now that perhaps gives a

been true. Now that perhaps gives a sense of how great the global tensions

currently are.

The Russian leadership no longer believes that it can meet safely and that it has to take precautions

by ensuring that one of its most senior members, the foreign minister Lavough is safe

whatever happens in case a decapitation strike takes place. As I said, this is, I think, very

place. As I said, this is, I think, very alarming news and once again highlights

how dangerous the international situation has now become. Anyway, Lavro

discussed various things over the course of this interview which you get to Norvesty and he

was clearly speaking to Norveasty which is a state-owned news agency by the way in Russia. Uh he

in Russia. Uh he spoke clearly with the full authority of the Russian leadership including Putin himself

bearing completely any idea that he might be in any sort of disfavor or political trouble.

And Lavro said many interesting things and he talked about the frozen assets, the ones that the European Union wants

to seize. And he said that it is no

to seize. And he said that it is no longer surprising to see the cynicism with which the European Commission interprets the U. UN charter and other

norms of international law, including provisions concerning sovereign immunity and the inviability of central bank assets. Such actions amount to outright

assets. Such actions amount to outright deception and theft. It seems that the long dormant instincts of colonialism

and pirate piracy have reawakened amongst Europeans.

No matter how the scheme for seizing Russian funds is presented, there is no lawful way to carry it out. The

confiscation of our gold and foreign currency reserves will not save the United Europe's proteges in Kiev. It is

obvious that this regime will be unable to repay its debts or service its loans.

There are few within the European Union who are eager to blindly take such steps which also entails serious reputational

risks for the Euro zone as a ter territory of economic activity. We will

respond to any predatory actions accordingly in accordance with the principle of reciprocity.

Our national interests and the need to compensate for the damage caused to us.

We hope that Brussels and other western capitals will still come to their senses and abandon this ill-advised venture.

And of course, Blavro is absolutely right. You cannot create a scheme

right. You cannot create a scheme to make something which is illegal legal.

It cannot be done. As I've discussed in program after program now, trying to do this simply highlights the extent of the

illegality and your own knowledge of it.

But the section of the interview that Lavough has given to novice that again attracted me, I noticed most was one in

which he again discussed the failed negotiations between the Russians and the Americans in Alaska.

And to reiterate again, Lavro in previous interviews has disclosed that Witgov came to Moscow at the beginning of

August with a proposal. The Russians

were interested with the proposal. The

Russians then agreed on the basis of that proposal to meet with Trump in Alaska.

Putin came to Alaska. Putin went through Witgov's proposal in front of Witkoff

and Trump. He asked whether he had

and Trump. He asked whether he had understood the proposal correctly on being told yes.

Putin said that he was prepared to accept it. At which point

accept it. At which point Trump pulled back, said that he needed to consult more widely and that after he spoke to the Europeans and the

Ukrainians, then but not before, he would give the Russians the final answer of whether he was prepared to act on his

own proposal, the proposal Witgov had communicated to Putin, which Putin had accepted.

I've already discussed in many places now the utter absurdity of that. But anyway,

Lavro has more to say about this today and it provides us with more information and it is interesting information.

Um he was asked this question. What is

currently the main stumbling block in the negotiations with the United States on a settlement around Ukraine? Where is

Russia ready to make concessions and where is it not? And then Lavroi replied as follows. The understandings on

as follows. The understandings on Ukraine reached during the Russia United States summit in Anchorage, Alaska on

August 15th were based on a con on the conditions for a fair and lasting settlement that President Putin outlined

back in June 2024 during his meeting with the leadership of our ministry. Now, I have said in many places

that what was agreed in Alaska

was almost certainly based on Putin's June 2024 proposals.

In other words, on what I call and what we on the Juran call Istanbul plus.

Istanbul plus being Putin's proposals of June 2024 based on the original Istanbul agreement of April 2022

but strengthened from a Russian point of view to take into account what they Russians referred to as the new realities

that have that have been created since April 2022.

Well, Lavough has just confirmed that.

So, what happened in Alaska or rather what happened when Witgo came to Moscow was that Witgo

told Putin that Trump was in essence accepting

Istanbul plus. And then Lavro goes on to

Istanbul plus. And then Lavro goes on to say this. We also took into account the

say this. We also took into account the proposals transmitted shortly before the Anchorage meeting by US presidential envoy Steve Wick Golf and that might

have involved as I've discussed previously um ceasefires temporary ceasefires in Zaporosia and Hersan region in return for the Ukrainian a

Ukrainian pullback from Dombbass.

And then Lavro goes on to say this. The

American side assured us that it would be able to ensure that Zalinski would not obstruct the achievement of peace.

Apparently, certain difficulties have arisen in this regard. Moreover, as we understand, Brussels and London are attempting to persuade Washington to

abandon its intention to resolve the crisis through political and diplomatic means and to fully engage in efforts to

exert exert military pressure on Russia.

In other words, to join rejoin the party of war. We are currently awaiting

of war. We are currently awaiting confirmation from the United States that the anchorage agreements remain in effect. I would emphasize that despite

effect. I would emphasize that despite their essentially compromise nature, we have not abandoned

and do not intend to abandon the points that are fundamental to us. The American

side is well aware of this. No one

disputes the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation or the choice made by the residents of Crimea, Donbass, and Novarosia

who made their historic decision to reunite with their homeland through the referendums in 2014 and 2022.

We likewise do not forget the need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict which we have repeatedly

highlighted. So Lavrov has given a lot

highlighted. So Lavrov has given a lot of information here. He says in effect that though the Russians might have been

prepared to agree to temporary ceasefires in Zaparo and Hersan regions, they nonetheless still expect that over

time these two territories will be transferred complete back to Russia because

as Lavro says, Russia is making no concession. confessions on the question

concession. confessions on the question of the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. And he refers to

Russian Federation. And he refers to Novarosia which of course includes Zaparo and Hersong region. And he speaks about the

Hersong region. And he speaks about the historic decision of the residents there to reunite with their homeland as a

result of the referendum that took place in September 2022.

He also says that the Putin made also made clear that the root causes of the conflict

must be addressed and that obviously means no NATO entry under any circumstances

and full restoration of rights for Russians on the territory of whatever remains of Ukraine.

So to those who worry that Putin made some major concessions to the Americans in

Alaska or in his discussions with Wick Goff or to those who perhaps hope that he did,

Lavrov is now given the answer. He

didn't. He basically stuck to the proposals that he himself Putin set out to the Russian foreign ministry

in June 2024.

In other words, to Istanbul plus there might have been an agreement for a temporary ceasefire in Zaporia and Hersan region, but from

what I can see from this, that would have been just about all.

Now to those in the west who routinely referred to Putin's maximalist demands who referred to the demands that he set

out the conditions he set out for peace in Ukraine um the conditions he set out on the 20 back in June 2024

um to the foreign ministry to Istanbul plus as his maximalist demands who say that the Americans called off

the southern meeting in Budapest because the Russians were not retreating

from their so-called maximalist demands.

I think it's just worth making the point here that these so-called maximalist demands

appear to have been the demands which in August of this year the Americans indicated that they were

accepting.

So you can you can work on that. You can

think about that as you will. Um,

nothing perhaps to my mind clarifies more completely the extent of the diplomatic debacle that has taken place

between Russian and American relations um over the last few months than the extraordinary

distorted language that has come out of the United States and of the White House since that summit. meeting in Alaska.

Anyway, that's that's the first thing to say. Now the second point comes back to

say. Now the second point comes back to what I was saying about Ukrainians Ukraine's absolutely catastrophic its

critical situation because Trump the Americans according to Lavough apparently assured Putin and the

Russians look we agree and we are going to be able to bring

Zalinski to heal. We can oblige Zalinski to agree to what we propose, what the

two of us together propose. That is what Lavough is saying. Um at that time the Americans assured us the American side

assured us that it would be able to ensure that Vladimir Zalinski would not obstruct the achievement of peace

and the entire meeting in Alaska.

The understanding that Putin and Trump reached in Alaska appears to have been pred predicated on

that assumption and it just proved to be completely wrong. Um all it took was a

completely wrong. Um all it took was a single meeting between Trump and Zalinski with all of the other European

leaders present. the meeting that took

leaders present. the meeting that took place in the Oval Office in Washington, a disastrously ill-conceived meeting.

All that it took was that one meeting to cause the Americans to flip completely and to go back on what they said in

Alaska and over the course of Wickoff's trip to Moscow a short time before.

Um, it is a tragedy for Ukraine

that the United States that the president did not do as he appears to have told the Russians that he would do

in Alaska, which is bring Zilinski on side.

Obviously, the United States has the means to do so if it chooses,

but clearly President Trump isn't willing to do to do what needs to be done. He clearly doesn't choose to do

be done. He clearly doesn't choose to do it. So the result is that Zalinski has

it. So the result is that Zalinski has been allowed to continue on his course of utter intrigence of refusal of any

substantive compromise and of course he's had the backing in this of the European leaders

and we see that even the military in Ukraine who have to deal with the realities ities of the conflict, not with the

fantasies that Zalinski um is coming up with all the time and which his media friends in the West and

his government friends in the West never cease repeating. Even the military are

cease repeating. Even the military are now starting to push back.

How much better the situation would have been if after Alaska,

Trump had called Zalinski in, told the Europeans to stay away, told Zalinski, "This is the end. It's gone as far as it

can. We can't continue to support you.

can. We can't continue to support you.

The Russians are winning the war.

We are inventories of weapons.

are reduced.

We can't deplete them further in what is now obviously a doomed enterprise.

If you want to go on fighting, you're on your own. Had Trump said that,

your own. Had Trump said that, well, I suspect that Zalinski would have either come round or

much more likely people in Ukraine and in Europe other than the Zilinski would have res

would have realized that the game was up and it would all have been over. Well,

not. No, Trump didn't do that. He

failed.

Zalinski continued on his way. The

Europeans continued to back him. And

well, we see now where we are. Ukraine

is going dark.

There's likely to be insufficient heating for the week for the winter. The

economy is close to collapse.

Hyperinflation looms. Weapons supplies from the west are reducing.

The army is wearing out and the Russians are besieging

Kulpinsk and Pakarovsk.

I increasingly think that Alaska will be seen when the history of this war is written as Ukraine's last chance.

Anyway, that's what I want to say about the conflict in Ukraine. I'm going to say a few further things. There's been there continues to be a deepening political

crisis across Europe. Um in Germany, Chancellor Meltz has had meetings with the steel industry whose production is

collapsing. Um steel output in Germany

collapsing. Um steel output in Germany is 25% below its 2019 peak and is

continuing to fall as might one might expect from someone like mouths. His

only solution is to is to throw subsidies at them. It will be very soon that Germany, by the way, has a debt to

GDP ratio well over 100%.

And I suspect that it will not be long either before Germany's famous current account surplus becomes a

deficit.

Just saying. I was reading a long article in the British media and the Guardian to be precise about the

collapse of the party system in Britain.

It is the case that currently um the late according to one opinion poll, the latest opinion poll, Labor and Conservative in Britain are tied equal

at 16%.

um reform leads um is is is the leading party um at 32%.

And the rising political force in Britain at the moment, which is the Greens, has actually overtaken Labor and Conservative and is now at

17%.

And this article, which is an interesting and good article by the way, gives a lot of interesting and good explanations as to why this has

happened. But again, it ignores the

happened. But again, it ignores the elephant in the room, which is of course the war, the crisis that the war is causing in the British economy, the

crisis it is causing in the British budget. There continues to be this

budget. There continues to be this strange practice of Omea in London

refusing to talk about the effect of the war on Britain's and Europe's current

deepening economic malaise.

Just saying.

But I would also like before I finish this program to return to the topic of Venezuela

because there has been another in the brilliant discussions of these global conflicts

in which the United States has been involved. There's been another brilliant

involved. There's been another brilliant report by veterans intelligence professionals

for sanity again strongly advising President Trump against embarking on a

military adventure in Venezuela.

and it points out all of the great unknowns in such a conflict. the enormous risks

if things were to go wrong for the United States.

The fact that many of the assumptions that underpin the belief of some people that the operation in Venezuela would be

straightforward and easily accomplished, look dangerously

fasile and complacent.

It's all there. It shows you again that real wise factbased

intelligence analysis by real intelligence professionals still exists and can still be found in

the United States.

Now, over the last few week or so, there have been many rumors that President Trump

has at the last moment got cold feet and is calling the Venezuelan operation off.

I'm still not convinced that this is necessarily so.

But if it is, could it just possibly be that he's aware of this report by veterans intelligence professionals for sanity?

I know there are some people in the administration who are aware of VIPS and do pay heed to what they say. Maybe

they've drawn his attention to it.

I'd like to think so. I don't really believe that that is the case. But if

anybody in the US government has been persuaded and if that has perhaps

resulted in this pause, well, that would not just be a very very good

thing, but would be a further cogent reason why we need VIPS. Anyway, this is where I'm going to finish today's program. Let me remind you again that

program. Let me remind you again that you can find all our programs on our various platforms, Locals, Rumble, and X. You can support our work via Patreon

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me soon. Have a very good day.

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