S&P 500 Blow-Off Top and Bitcoin to $44k | Live Setups

The S&P 500 may have just signaled a top going into FOMC and the same thing for Bitcoin.

And I'll have some targets in this video that you're going to want to stick around and see because they are pretty dramatic, but they also make a lot of sense.

So my name is Justin Bennett, full-time trader and founder of Daily Price Action.

As always, all of this is my opinion only and not financial advice.

So let's start here with the S&P 500, looking at the four-hour time frame. Now,

when you look at this trend here, in fact, I'll go to a daily just to kind of show this.

in my opinion, looking at this structure, you had the rounded top back here and then you had shorts getting trapped through here, right, with this explosive move higher.

Now, it's very difficult for me to look at this right here, this move, and see anything other than a blow-off top.

In my opinion, that is what we're looking at here.

Now, it's impossible to know, okay, nobody knows where market's gonna go.

It's impossible to know if this is going to be the top of this blow-off top or higher.

However, what we do know and what is tradable, because talking about the potential for a blow-off top or something looks like a blow-off top isn't really actionable.

However, what is, is what's happened so far on the intraday charts here for the S&P 500.

Because if you look at the one hour time frame what we've had here over the past couple of days is this BOS on the hourly and this change of character.

So this is the first time within this current uptrend that we have seen this.

Now a lot of people are going to look at this and say, well, this right here is too shallow.

This is too shallow.

This is just minor price action and this doesn't matter. Okay.

And I understand the argument there.

However, if you look at this trend, this is actually the first time we've seen the S&P do this during this entire uptrend, okay?

It has not taken out a low.

Like even back here, we got the BOS here, the market gap down, okay? And because this was a gap, that really does not count.

Since that time though, look at these higher highs and higher lows.

Okay, this market has not looked back.

We have not seen it take out a low like this until this point right here. Now,

if you do want more conviction, okay, what you can do is go to a four-hour time frame, and you've got this high right up here.

So this is your four-hour BOS.

And then these lows down here, this is your point that sellers have to take out.

And then that would be your four-hour change of character.

And that would be pretty convincing.

If we got the close below here following FOMC today, then that could be the top in place.

And another reason too, guys, and I think that we have seen a top here, mostly because of what's happened there on the one-hour timeframe, like I mentioned, is the fact that when you look at this move here, we do have obviously a lot of imbalances back here for the S&P on this move up.

And when you look at the range here from the lows to the high, what you'll notice is we have from the low down here, up here to the high, we've got this area right down here.

So this is the 50%.

Everything below here is discount.

You can see where OTE is down here.

And notice this imbalance specifically.

Okay, this displacement right here, we have not really seen a retrace into this. We saw

a very shallow retrace here, but this area down here, in my opinion, is open for business.

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But with the S&P guys, I still think this area down here is very open for business considering that one hour shift that we had here recently.

Like I said, though, if you want something a little bit more convincing, these lows down here are the ones the market has to take out.

If we see a four hour close below that, then we have a four hour change of character and a confirmed top in place.

Okay, now full disclosure here too, I do have a short on.

this market going into FOMC and the same thing with Bitcoin.

Now the thing to remember though is that because BTC and the S&P move together most of the time, I have arranged my positions so that I'm not over leveraging myself here between those two positions.

Okay, so I want to be clear on that.

And I also did share these trades in real time in Discord, as I do with all my trades, along with full descriptions, charts, and all that.

All right, so I do think that based on this shift here on the one-hour timeframe, guys, this is starting to look more like a top here for the S&P 500.

And again, we have no shortage of imbalances down here in this area, all the way down to about 6,600 for the S&P 500 to potentially come back here and tag over the coming days.

Now, of course, the invalidation for this would be if following FOMC, the market coming up here and taking out this high.

If we get the market taking out this high, closing above here, then we just have a continuation of this rally.

But you can kind of see with the look of this right here, in my opinion, this is starting to look more like a top rather than a continuation.

And when we flip over to BTC, again, knowing that they move together more often than not, looking at Bitcoin here, you can see same structure to what we had right back here.

So this was a bear flag.

You can see where we had the aggressive move lower.

We had the consolidation up here, higher highs and higher lows, and then we had the continuation.

Now it's basically a repeat of what we got back here.

It's the same exact structure.

And you can see that Bitcoin is coming off of the top of this channel as well.

So furthermore, if you look at a four hour time frame, and I will talk about targets here for Bitcoin as well, guys, which it's pretty drastic, but it does make a lot of sense.

So be sure to stay tuned for that.

The 4 hour time frame, you can see we have a trend line break here, very simple trend line break.

However, we also have this right here.

So what was essentially a double top, we did have the market give us acceptance below that low.

So combine this with this trend line here, combined with the fact that we are coming off of the top of this channel on the daily, in my opinion, it starts to look pretty bearish okay?

And furthermore too, again, knowing that they're both risk assets and that if the S&P 500 rotates lower, Bitcoin is likely to do the same, knowing that we have this right here on the S&P 500, right?

This also gives me a bit more confidence to think that Bitcoin may have topped out here.

All right, so again, I do have shorts on both of these going into FOMC.

My risk is pretty light on these, considering the volatility that we're likely to see, you know, today with FOMC and also with everything going on in the Middle East.

So I have taken that into account.

But from where I'm sitting right now, it does look like we have potentially reached a top for both of these markets. Now,

markets. Now, if we look here at the weekly time frame, I want to show you something on the Bitcoin chart as well that I don't think a lot of people are talking about.

The fact that we have this fresh change of character on the weekly. So

this up here, just to clarify, this up here, we did not close above.

So this was not a break of structure.

This was the last BOS here on the weekly chart for Bitcoin.

So that makes this down here the weekly low, or I'm sorry, the external low down here, which we clearly took out back here.

So right now, guys, we have an established downtrend, lower highs and lower lows.

We have a fresh bearish change of character on the weekly.

So all of this right here, in my opinion, points lower.

Now, the question is, is this the top within this relief or not?

And for reasons I just discussed and I showed you on the four-hour timeframe, I'm leaning toward the idea that this is now the top four BTC.

Okay, now in terms of targets.

Let's talk about that, because as you can see here, we had back here, okay, so way back here in early 2024, we had this displacement.

Okay, so the way that you can view this is back here for Bitcoin, we had consolidation.

Okay, so this consolidation right here, we then broke out of this with displacement.

This right here was also consolidation in the form of a bull flag.

We broke out with displacement.

Now, both times, this right here, okay, was an imbalance, and this over here was also an imbalance.

Now, what I want you to notice is that on this last leg lower, okay, it's no coincidence that BTC not only targeted this imbalance back here, okay, following this push out of consolidation notice this was the push out of this consolidation, notice where we tagged and bottomed, okay?

Now, the next target, okay, similar target to this, would be this pocket back here, all right? So again, the way you visualize this

all right? So again, the way you visualize this is that this back here was also the consolidation, okay?

was the push out of that consolidation.

Yes, we had this wick right here that mitigated part of that imbalance.

However, on the weekly timeframe, you can see that this right back here, basically everything below this wick is still an imbalance and that comes in around mid 40K.

Okay so another thing too, if we go back to the daily chart, all right, so if you treat this as another bear flag, assuming that this plays out in a similar fashion, so from this high down here to the low, if we just draw a line and are in linear view, okay, that's gonna be key.

If you take this now and drag this over from the high, what you'll notice is that the objective comes in right there around low to mid 40Ks.

So you can also see how that lines up with that weekly imbalance.

Okay, so in my opinion, that is not a coincidence, all right? But in terms of

all right? But in terms of SMC, when we go in here and look at this on something like a four hour timeframe, Okay, so if we view this here, just like the S&P, if you're looking for a little more conviction, this was the last true BOS on the four-hour time frame.

Okay so that means that this lowdown here is going to be that protected low.

So if we see Bitcoin take out this level right around like 73,600, if we see a close below here, okay, following FOMC, in my opinion, that really starts to confirm that we have a top in place for BTC.

My entry here, which I took up here in this region, is an early entry.

I may add to it if we do see the close below here, because that would also allow me to add to it following FOMC, not before.

But this down here, guys, if we get this 73,600 below this, then I think that really starts to confirm that we have a top in place.

Now, like the S&P 500, if we were to see Bitcoin, following FOMC come up here and take out these highs, then clearly any idea of shorting this market is misplaced because we have a new BOS at that point. Okay.

But it does look pretty top heavy here for BTC.

Same thing for the S&P 500 with this shift that we've seen over the past couple of days.

Now, one thing too, with this target on BTC, because I know there's going to be a lot of people out there who are fans of Bitcoin and look at this and think there's no chance that we are going to see from current levels after this kind of drop, from current levels, see Bitcoin drop another 40%.

And I want to leave you with this, is when we compare Bitcoin to the S&P 500, clearly these two are correlated, okay? They have

been over years, okay?

Now, the issue here for the crypto market, and kind of the scary part if you're really bullish on the crypto market, is the fact that this deviation, okay, really started back here okay?

So back here in October of last year, we see here that this is Bitcoin and this is the S&P 500.

So the scary part here for the crypto market is that we already see Bitcoin doing this right over the last few months.

And at the same time, the S&P 500 is still just off its all-time high.

So imagine a scenario where if the S&P 500 does pull back, okay, so looking at the S&P chart, even if we get just this down here, okay, for the S&P 500 moving down here to mitigate imbalances like this.

Okay, that kind of drop alone could be pretty dramatic for the crypto market considering how weak Bitcoin has been against the S&P 500. Okay.

Obviously, there's no guarantee that this continues.

We could see the crypto market start to actually strengthen against the stock market.

But looking at this pattern since October of last year, okay, it's a lot of data here.

We are seeing the crypto market weaken substantially against the stock market. Okay.

So that's just something to keep in mind for those out there who look at this and think that, okay, Okay, we've already had this drop here from Bitcoin.

There's no chance that we're going to see this once again.

Guys, just keep in mind that especially in a bear market for BTC, this move right here from this high down here to the low, yes, that's 50%.

But guys, we can see a lot more than that from the crypto market.

And my opinion is, and this is kind of outside of this video, but my opinion is that look, Bitcoin has only existed during quote unquote the good times. Okay,

we haven't seen the crypto market stress tested during a global recession.

or worse.

Okay, we've only seen Bitcoin exist after the last recession, which was obviously the 2008 financial crisis.

Okay, we've only seen it exist during those times of sunshine and rainbows.

We haven't seen the crypto market actually fully tested during a cyclical downtrend within a larger debt cycle.

Okay, so just, you know, keep that in mind, food for thought.

This is not meant to be a super bearish video on the crypto market, but I do think that we are headed lower, probably much, much lower than what most people think.

If this video helped in any way, subscribe to the channel and leave your comment below.

And also check out the video right here where I walk you through how to identify SMC market structure in a very simple way.

So until next time, trade well.

I will talk to you again tomorrow.