死磕一本原版英文书《Same as Ever》,词汇量、语感、母语者思维、听力、口语100%提升【从零开始学英语】零基础学英语 Learn English with a Book
By 从零开始学英语
Summary
Topics Covered
- A Candy Bar Outlives Every Economic Crisis
- Ask What Won't Change, Not What Will
- Time Travel Proves Human Nature Never Changes
- Naval's 999 of 1,000 Test for Universal Truths
Full Transcript
Same as ever.
Same as ever. Introduction. The little
laws of life.
I once had lunch with a guy who's close to Warren Buffett.
This guy, we'll call him Jim, not his real name, was driving around Omaha, Nebraska with Buffett in late 2009.
The global economy was crippled at this point, and Omaha was no exception.
Stores were closed, businesses were boarded up.
Jim said to Warren, "It's so bad right now. How does the economy ever bounce back from this?"
Warren said, "Jim, do you know what the best-selling candy bar was in 1962?"
"No," Jim said.
"Snickers," said Warren.
"And do you know what the best-selling candy bar is today?"
"No," said Jim.
"Snickers," Warren said.
Then silence.
That was the end of the conversation.
This is a book of short stories about what never changes in a changing world.
History is filled with surprises no one could have seen coming, but it's also filled with so much timeless wisdom.
If you traveled in time to 500 years ago or 500 years from now, you would be astounded at how much technology and medicine has changed.
The geopolitical order would make no sense to you.
The language and dialect might be completely foreign.
But, you'd notice people falling for greed and fear just like they do in our current world.
You'd see people persuaded by risk, jealousy, and tribal affiliations in ways that are familiar to you.
You'd see overconfidence and shortsightedness that remind you of people's behavior today.
You'd find people seeking the secret to a happy life and trying to find certainty when none exists in ways that are entirely relatable.
When transported to an unfamiliar world, you'd spend a few minutes watching people behave and say, "Ah, I've seen this before.
Same as ever."
Change captures our attention because it's surprising and exciting.
But, the behaviors that never change are history's most powerful lessons because they preview what to expect in the future.
Your future.
Everyone's future.
No matter who you are, where you're from, how old you are, or how much money you make, there are timeless lessons from human behavior that are some of the most
important things you can ever learn.
It's a simple idea, but it's so easy to overlook.
And once you grasp it, you'll be able to make better sense of your own life, understand why the world is the way it is, and become more at ease with what the
future has in store.
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once said that he's often asked what's going to change in the next 10 years.
I almost never get the question, "What's not going to change in the next 10 years?" he said.
years?" he said.
And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.
Things that never change are important because you can put so much confidence into knowing how they'll shape the future.
Bezos said, "It's impossible to imagine a future where Amazon customers don't want low prices and fast shipping."
So, he can put investment into those things.
The same philosophy works in almost all areas of life.
I have no clue what the stock market will do next year or any year.
But I'm very confident about people's pension for greed and fear, which never changes.
So, that's what I spend my time thinking about.
I have no idea who will win the next presidential election, but I'm confident about the ways people's attachment to tribal identities influences their thinking.
Which is the same today as it was a thousand years ago and will be a thousand years from now.
I cannot tell you what businesses will dominate the next decade, but I can tell you how business leaders let success go to their heads, becoming lazy and entitled, and eventually losing
their edge.
That story hasn't changed in hundreds of years and never will.
Philosophers have spent centuries discussing the idea that there are an infinite number of ways your life could play out and you just happen to be living in this specific version.
It's a wild thing to contemplate and it leads to the question, "What would be true in every imaginable version of your life, not just this one?"
Those universal truths are obviously the most important things to focus on because they don't rely on chance, luck, or accident.
Entrepreneur and investor Naval Ravikant put put this way, "In 1,000 parallel universes, you want to be wealthy in 999 of them.
You don't want to be wealthy in the 50 of them where you got lucky.
So, we want to factor luck out of it.
I want to live in a way that if my life played out 1,000 times, Naval is successful 999 times.
That's what this book is about.
In a thousand parallel universes, what would be true in every single one?
Each of the following 23 chapters can be read independently, so there is no harm in skipping and choosing as you wish.
What they have in common is that I'm confident each of these topics will be as relevant hundreds of years from now as they were hundreds of years ago.
None of the chapters are long, and you're welcome for that.
Many are derived from my blog at The Collaborative Fund, where I write about the intersection of money, history, and psychology.
The first looks at how fragile the world is with a personal story about the scariest day of my life.
Introduction.
Loss.
Warren Buffett.
Omaha.
Nebraska.
Global.
Economy.
Point.
Exception.
Businesses.
Boarded.
boarded up bounce best-selling Snickers silence conversation history filled
surprises seeing coming timeless wisdom astounded technology medicine geopolitical
language dialect completely foreign notice greed fear
current [clears throat] persuaded jealousy tribal affiliations familiar
overconfidence short-sightedness remind behavior seeking secret certainty exists
entirely relatable transported unfamiliar behave captures behaviors powerful
preview expect future overlook grasp ease Amazon founder
Jeff Bezos submit actually confidence knowing shape impossible customers
enormous investment philosophy areas clue confident greed presidential
election attachment tribal identities influences dominate decade success
lazy entitled eventually edge philosophers being yuan philosophers
zhe xue jia centuries shi ji discussing tao lun infinite wu xian de
specific te ding de ju ti de version ban ben wild feng kuang de
ye shen de contemplate si kao chen si imaginable neng xiang xiang de dao de
universal pu bian de tong yong de truths zhen li shi shi
obviously xian ran de rely yi kao yi lai accident yi wai
shi gu entrepreneur qi ye jia chuang ye jia investor tou zi ren
Naval Ravikant na wa er la wei kan te parallel ping xing de universes
yu zhou wealthy fu you de factor yin su successful
cheng gong de following jie xia lai de 20 er shi chapters
zhang jie independently du li de harm shang hai sun hai
skipping tiao guo common topics relevant none derived
collaborative fund intersection psychology fragile personal scariest
Same as ever. Introduction. The little
laws of life.
I once had lunch with a guy who's close to Warren Buffett.
This guy, we'll call him Jim, not his real name, was driving around Omaha, Nebraska with Buffett in late 2009.
The global economy was crippled at this point, and Omaha was no exception.
Stores were closed, businesses were boarded up. Jim said to Warren,
boarded up. Jim said to Warren, "It's so bad right now. How does the economy ever bounce back from this?"
Warren said, "Jim, do you know what the best-selling candy bar was in 1962?"
"No," Jim said.
"Snickers," said Warren.
"And do you know what the best-selling candy bar is today?"
"No," said Jim.
"Snickers," Warren said.
Then silence.
That was the end of the conversation.
This is a book of short stories about what never changes in a changing world.
History is filled with surprises no one could have seen coming.
But it's also filled with so much timeless wisdom.
If you traveled in time to 500 years ago or 500 years from now, you would be astounded at how much technology and medicine has changed.
The geopolitical order would make no sense to you.
The language and dialect might be completely foreign.
But you'd notice people falling for greed and fear just like they do in our current world.
You'd see people persuaded by risk, jealousy, and tribal affiliations in ways that are familiar to you.
You'd see overconfidence and short-sightedness that remind you of people's behavior today.
You'd find people seeking the secret to a happy life and trying to find certainty when none exists in ways that are entirely relatable.
When transported to an unfamiliar world, you'd spend a few minutes watching people behave and say, "Ah, I've seen this before. Same as
ever."
Change captures our attention because it's surprising and exciting.
But the behaviors that never change are history's most powerful lessons because they preview what to expect in the future. Your future.
future. Your future.
Everyone's future.
No matter who you are, where you're from, how old you are, or how much money you make, there are timeless lessons from human behavior that are some of the most
important things you can ever learn.
It's a simple idea, but it's so easy to overlook.
And once you grasp it, you'll be able to make better sense of your own life, understand why the world is the way it is, and become more at ease with what
the future has in store.
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once said that he's often asked, "What's going to change in the next 10 years?"
"I almost never get the question, what's not going to change in the next 10 years?" he said.
years?" he said.
And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.
Things that never change are important because you can put so much confidence into knowing how they'll shape the future.
Bezos said, "It's impossible to imagine a future where Amazon customers don't want low prices and fast shipping."
So he can put enormous investment into those things.
The same philosophy works in almost all areas of life.
I have no clue what the stock market will do next year or any year, but I'm very confident about people's pension for greed and fear, which never changes.
So that's what I spend my time thinking about. I have no idea who will win the
about. I have no idea who will win the next presidential election, but I'm confident about the ways people's attachment to tribal identities influences their thinking, which is the same today as it was a
thousand years ago and will be a thousand years from now.
I cannot tell you what businesses will dominate the next decade, but I can tell you how business leaders let success go to their heads, becoming lazy and entitled, and eventually losing
their edge.
That story hasn't changed in hundreds of years and never will.
Philosophers have spent centuries discussing the idea that there are an infinite number of ways your life could play out, and you just happen to be living in this specific version.
It's a wild thing to contemplate, and it leads to the question, what would be true in every imaginable version of your life, not just this one?
Those universal truths are obviously the most important things to focus on because they don't rely on chance, luck, or accident.
Entrepreneur and investor Naval Ravikant put it this way, "In 1,000 parallel universes, you want to be wealthy in 999 of them.
You don't want to be wealthy in the 50 of them where you got lucky.
So, we want to factor luck out of it.
I want to live in a way that if my life played out 1,000 times, Naval is successful 999 times."
That's what this book is about.
In a thousand parallel universes, what would be true in every single one?
Each of the following 23 chapters can be read independently, so there is no harm in skipping and choosing as you wish.
What they have in common is that I'm confident each of these topics will be as relevant hundreds of years from now as they were hundreds of years ago.
None of the chapters are long, and you're welcome for that. Many are
derived from my blog at The Collaborative Fund, where I write about the intersection of money, history, and psychology.
The first looks at how fragile the world is with a personal story about the scariest day of my life.
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