🚨Saudi Arabia Stops US Military Support, Ends US Operation Freedom | Larry Johnson

Welcome back everybody to Neutrality Studies and today we are joined again by the one and only Larry Johnson. Larry,

welcome back.

Seenor, good to see you.

Very good seeing you too. Uh you are one of the best analysts to actually give us the updates of what is going on from at least from the US side in uh the Iran

war. Can you maybe give us a rundown as

war. Can you maybe give us a rundown as we speak on my Thursday morning, May 7th, your your evening Thursday 6th?

Yeah. So, um I I I figure I should start bringing, you know, prompts to these interviews. I I should wear like a neck

interviews. I I should wear like a neck brace. You know, people that have been

brace. You know, people that have been in an accident, injured their neck or they're walking around. That's what we need after watching, you know, your watching Trump's policy reversals. you

know, one minute project freedom, next minute no, that's on pause. One minute,

oh, we're making advances, next minute, oh, we're gonna bomb them.

Uh, I while the market spin has been that there is progress on negotiations and still holding out some hope that

those negotiations will produce a permanent end to the war. Uh, I don't see it. The the obstacles or the demands

see it. The the obstacles or the demands of Iran are completely incompatible with what uh Donald Trump and his team are willing to

accept. Uh, the the Trump team wants to

accept. Uh, the the Trump team wants to phase in sanction relief, you know, not give it right away.

Iranians want it right away, and I don't blame them. They've been down this path

blame them. They've been down this path before with the JCPOA where they were promised sanction relief and just have to, you know, you you show us that you're acting in good faith. They acted

in good faith. They did everything they were asked to do. And then Trump tore up the agreement and nobody uh eased the sanctions that were on them. Uh they

want uh the money that's been frozen returned to them. In fact, they have a uh they got a pretty they put out their plan today for how they're going to

manage uh the straight of Hormuz.

And anybody who's been enforcing sanctions against Iran is not going to be allowed to use the straight of Hormuz. Just

straight up. U anyone that allowed their land, their country like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, uh Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab

Emirates, uh Jordan, any of those countries that were allowed to they used uh let the United States use their

facilities to carry out attacks in Iran, they got to pay a fine. They're going to they're going to be expected to help share in the remuneration. So, uh I I

think there just too many obstacles and that uh a lot of this may may be staged.

It may be theater. Now, the the if you listen to what do what Marco Rubio said yesterday at his press conference, there was no consiliation in that at all. It

was all about basically why Iran's such a bunch of bad guys. You know, they're evil. They're a bunch of fanatics,

evil. They're a bunch of fanatics, you know, religious extremists, you know, on and on. But, uh, uh, you know, it's it's like the United States needs

to look in the mirror and because a lot of the a lot of the things we accused the Iranians of doing actually were doing, but apparently the Chinese had

told Trump that if you launch another attack on uh on Iran, forget about coming here. Xiinping will have no time

coming here. Xiinping will have no time for you. Yeah, right. Because we have

for you. Yeah, right. Because we have the we have the upcoming meeting between Trump with Xi Jinping later this month and we just had Arachi in uh in I think

Beijing meeting with uh with the Chinese foreign minister yesterday or today uh in the US like what what do you make out of that? Did you hear anything about

of that? Did you hear anything about what they what the discussion there was?

Well, the very the most important takeaway from that is they talked about uh regional security, the architecture

for regional security. Those were the words the Chinese used. Gee, where where else have we heard that? Pascal

Putin. Putin's exact words, right?

So, what what this means, China and Russia, man, they're singing from the same sheet of music. They are um they're not off on independent acts. This is a

coordinated effort. Uh and they are

coordinated effort. Uh and they are they're delivering that same message to the Saudis, Qataris, Amiradis, Bahrainis, and Kuwaitis

because I think they're going forward with a plan that is not going to include the

United States. Uh in fact the the report

United States. Uh in fact the the report is that the Saudis uh when project uh when this uh freedom project was

announced that that was done without consulting with the Saudis without giving the Saudis a heads up. So the Saudis reportedly reacted by telling the United States you're not you you cannot launch

any more air operations out of Saudi Arabia. You're done.

Arabia. You're done.

Uh, so I'm trying to confirm that right now. But if that's the case, I mean,

now. But if that's the case, I mean, that was it was reported in the press, but I'm I'm trying to check it out through my military sources to see if in fact that that happened or is that just,

you know, some more sped that uh uh I think China and Russia are trying to set up a situation that they will be the dominant forces now in the

Persian Gulf. And the the other thing I

Persian Gulf. And the the other thing I think it sort of grates on, you know, the Saudis and the the Qataris in particular and Bahrain and Kuwait, they

were promised protection by the United States. We got your back, man. Here's

States. We got your back, man. Here's

our great air defense systems. Watch these work. And it didn't work.

these work. And it didn't work.

And they are now proving to be just that, just toys.

Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. And pricey toys. Let's not

forget that, man. they cost they cost a pretty penny. Um, so they exposed that

pretty penny. Um, so they exposed that the US air defense system really didn't work. Uh, and they the the bases the US

work. Uh, and they the the bases the US bases were widely hit and significantly damaged. So it's it would not be

damaged. So it's it would not be uncommon for these Gulf Arabs to start looking around saying, you know what, we've been basically we've been paying

the Americans billions of dollars. We've

been buying protection and what what did he give us? They got us uh sort of roughed up here. Do you do you think it's sinking in by now in these Gulf States that that's the state of affairs?

Because the I talked to Mohammad Mandi last week and he told me, "Look, Pascal, if the if the Arab states uh today just declared their neutrality and said like

no more overflights by the US, no more basing, no more uh docking in our ports, no more using any of our capabilities to implement any kind of warfare against

Iran, then the war is over on that with that very uh announcement because the United States couldn't do it without them." So, and and by now it seems that

them." So, and and by now it seems that this is is is just the physical reality that's that that's going to be that that's that's just going to be there in in the in the

Gulf. So, do you think it's sinking in

Gulf. So, do you think it's sinking in or will it still take time until even the UAE comes around in Qatar?

Well, if if the UAE doesn't come and the UAE actually has taken very provocative steps.

Oh, yeah.

Ali alienating itself from it from the other Gulf Arabs. uh the the tensions with the Saudis are back up uh from you know in fact the these guys were

considered you know a few months back close to going to war with each other.

Uh but uh the Iran's demand is once security guarantees that it's not going to be attacked again. So how does how does that get translated into action?

Well, one way is that there are forbidden to have any US military bases in any of those countries that are adjacent to Iran because if the military

is not there, they're going to have a tough time launching attacks. Um, and

and and the problem that I guess the other incentive for the Gulf Arabs maybe to pursue that is that if you do allow the US in, you become a target. And in

the era of drones and short range and intermediate range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, uh you you're you're you're the target now. And they

they've they've suffered damage. We we

don't really have a full calculation yet, but uh the some of the early indications are that they'll be literally years and trying to restore

some of these capabilities.

Hey, very brief intermission because I was recently banned from YouTube. And

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pascalota.supstack.com.

The link's going to be in the description below. And now, back to the

description below. And now, back to the video. And when it comes to the United

video. And when it comes to the United States, you know, my uh my friend here in Japan uh she's an analyst just asked me, "So, is the war over now because

Trump actually announced it? It's it's

over, right?" and the uh but the blockade is still on. Um but so it seems to me that the United States is really unwilling at the moment to go back to the kinetic phase. They do not want to

shoot anymore probably because they've run out of missiles because there's just no not enough things left to shoot. Um

but they it seems that the strategy is not to wind it down. The the strategy is just to shift the way you you you impose hurt on Iran. Is that about it?

No. Um,

it let me get it. This is a layered answer. Sorry to be so hesitant.

answer. Sorry to be so hesitant.

Number one, the CIA andor this Foundation for the Defense of Democracy have fed false intelligence into the

Trump administration. And the nature of

Trump administration. And the nature of this intelligence, it's twofold.

convince them number one that the Iranian leadership's coming apart at the seams that there's nobody in charge that they're at each other's throats. Um and

then the second and and they believe that you believe that the White House believes this false intelligence.

Absolutely believes it. And then coupled with that is that the economy is hanging by a threat that the soldiers aren't

getting paid. that the unrest that's

getting paid. that the unrest that's beneath the surface is just waiting to bubble up. And so one more punch and

bubble up. And so one more punch and this, you know, we're back to what they were told in the first week. We

decapitate, man. They're not going to last three days, four days max. And and

they're being told that again. And uh

you see Scott Bessett, he repeats it.

You see Marco Rubio, he repeats it.

Donald Trump repeats it. So I don't care what other negotiations are going on as long as you've got that belief about the situation. Now what they don't

situation. Now what they don't understand and I I don't think you know I I've discovered this about a week ago

or so that right now the Iranian leadership is as is probably more united

than at any time in the 46 year history of the Islamic Republic. Why? Because

the top leaders share one thing in common. They all fought in the 198088

common. They all fought in the 198088 war that Iraq inflicted upon Iran. They all did.

Poses, he was drafted into the army, but he he was a medic and he did all of his service as a medic with the IRGC.

uh Arachi he foreign minister he was in the IRGC.

Uh Galifav uh Galibbah uh he the speaker of the parliament he was in the IRGC.

Uh then the Ayatollah Maba Kamei he joined the IRGC when he was 17 in 1987 and fought for two years.

He was in four major battles. So you got a generation of guys, you know, the youngest is Maktada who's 56. The oldest

is Peskian. He's my age. He's 71. I look

better than he does. I I'll just note.

I'm better preserved.

Uh but uh uh they all they they come out of they all fought. So that that was a and they did that as young men, you know, between the ages of 17 and 30. uh

they were that that shapes who they are today. So this this they've been

today. So this this they've been attacked again just like they were attacked in 1980 only more viciously.

So the notion that they're at each other's throats and divided that's just western propaganda. That's crap. And

western propaganda. That's crap. And

then as far as the economy being on, you know, it's running on fumes. They're

they're going to collapse any minute now. the blockade the US blockade is a

now. the blockade the US blockade is a charade because it's a simple math problem that if you're going to blockade that means any

ship that's trying to get out of that blockade you got to stop it you have to seize it you have to get on board you have to search it and then you take

control of it and post a prize crew there have been 150 ships that have left Iran since April 15th at least 50.

We only actually have reports of the United States boarding two.

Now, if they boarded, let's say they boarded all 150, that means when they board, they also the destroyer or cruiser that went with them has to be the company, the ship, like the tanker

or the cargo vessel. We don't have 150 ships over there. I think we got 18.

Okay. And the each of the three aircraft carriers, they've got a complement of four destroyers.

And so 12 of those ships are there to provide protection to the aircraft carriers. So if you say, "Oh, we're

carriers. So if you say, "Oh, we're going to start pulling them off to go seize ships," then you leave the aircraft carriers completely vulnerable, completely exposed. So that's why I say,

completely exposed. So that's why I say, so the the the blockade really has been a nonfactor on that front. But the other part is

Iran's not surrounded. They've got

access to the Caspian Sea to Russia.

They've got access in the northeast corner through Turk Manistan. And then

they've got in the southeast corner Pakistan.

And Pakistan has opened up they said, "Hey, we we've opened up six transportation routes that are carrying, you know, 40 foot car containers, etc.

of goods going in and out of Iran." So

this this lie that all Iran's in desperate economics here, they're they've never been in worse shape. It's

just the US authorities deluded themselves.

Yeah. And of course Iran is also a 90 million population, which means a considerable internal market uh plus uh access to a lot of raw materials, most importantly the energy, of course, the

oil. and the United States tried to

oil. and the United States tried to smash up quite a bit of the oil uh manufacturing capacity, but Iran made it clear that if you do that then we destroy yours period. So the this one

was w winded down and I suppose they're now working on fixing all of that when Yeah.

Yeah. I was just going to say it's one more example of the schizophrenia of US foreign policy and energy policy.

Remember two weeks in what does Scott Besson announce? Oh, we're we're lifting

Besson announce? Oh, we're we're lifting the sanctions on Russian and and Iranian oil so everybody can buy it and they they weren't trying to destroy any of the oil on the open sea because they

needed it to try to stabilize the price.

They have now failed. They have failed in that.

So, so the one thing we can say for sure is when Donald Trump said, "Oh, it doesn't matter that the price of oil goes up a little bit. That's the price to pay." Then we know that's actually

to pay." Then we know that's actually not true. They actually have to care,

not true. They actually have to care, right? Washington really really has to

right? Washington really really has to care about the price of oil.

Just uh come to, you know, come here to Florida. I'll take you to the local gas

Florida. I'll take you to the local gas station and you can listen to the people bitching. They're not happy. Um my wife

bitching. They're not happy. Um my wife came back the other night and commented that uh you know the the commentary you know normally people get out of their cars, they fill up their car, they're

not socializing, people are you know like can you believe this crap? You know

that kind of thing. So Trump's got him Trump Trump has himself a real problem because we've like u I'll give you example Thursday the price of gas was

396 a gallon. It's so before the before the war it was 254.

So uh on Thursday it was down it had dipped down a little bit in the fifth week, sixth week, seventh week because they raided the strategic oil reserve.

They pumped more oil into the system to try to stabilize the price. But now

that's they've emptied out the strategic oil reserve. So Thursday the price was

oil reserve. So Thursday the price was 396. Friday the price was 398.

396. Friday the price was 398.

Saturday the price was $4. Yesterday

the price was 404.

So just in you know 5 days it's gone up 8 cents.

Do you do you do you think that the Trump administration actually uses that metric as one of the indicators of what they have to say next in order to make the markets come down? Because my friend

here in in Tokyo, she actually said like uh depending on what based upon what they've heard uh from yesterday, she's expecting that today when the markets open because it was public holidays here

that that the uh you know the markets would react very positively, hence the price of oil will go down. Do you think they actually try to look at what's what's happening at the US pump?

Yeah. No. No. This is where there's a disconnect.

They are using the futures market which is completely disconnected from reality.

If if you go out uh if you know like in Singapore when the ship pulls in to start offloading the oil, they're not pay you know let's say the Brent uh is

uh it was $110. I haven't even looked today to see what it is because there's so much market manipulation. But the

actual price you pay at the dock because the the paper market for futures is meaningless. What you pay at the dock uh

meaningless. What you pay at the dock uh Singapore was paying $250 for a barrel of oil uh five weeks ago,

six weeks ago. Uh many countries right now are paid 140 150. So there there's at least a $40 to $50 gap between what

they say the future market is and then what the actual price is and you know that gap is being widely exploited by some very shrewd traders. Uh but the

mark so the market the market is being manipulated by politics and perception.

Oh this thing is over. What people don't understand there 20% of the world oil supply is no longer on the market

now on February 28th and March 1st and March 2nd even though the 20 the straight of Hormuz was threatening 20%

of the of the world oil supply that 20% was still out on the high seas sailing to a destination to deliver that oil. So

nobody was actually being deprived yet.

Now they are. That's the difference.

This this is now where the the full economic negative economic effects of this are going to kick in. And the you know just something as simple as people

who you know here in Florida we get you know lots of sunshine year round. Grass

is always growing. So you got to you know got to have your your somebody take care of your lawn to cut the grass. Some

people do it themselves. Well, so you're now if you've got a five a five gallallon uh lawnmower uh you're

basically you're paying five to $8 more for gas than you were uh two months ago.

And with the vehicles that's up the diesel is, you know, like almost double the I mean it's it so everybody's it is going to have an inflationary effect

right away because people are having to pay more for uh not just you know like lawn services. Uh I I use my dogs. We we

lawn services. Uh I I use my dogs. We we

we feed them a raw food diet and so we buy a five pound log of hamburger and divide it up. So, you know, they get a each of them eats about a threequarters

of a pound a day. They're 140 pound dogs. So, the big dogs. Uh, a year ago,

dogs. So, the big dogs. Uh, a year ago, I was paying 1450 for that 5B log.

Today, it's 2150.

Wow.

And and two weeks ago it was 2050 and a month and a half ago it was 1950. So,

the the price rate is actually it's accelerating.

Yeah. Yeah. This is this is one of the things that a lot of people misunderstand like inflation is not a monetary phenomenon. Inflation is mostly

monetary phenomenon. Inflation is mostly an phenomenon of of real economic impact like when oil goes up and everything then goes up. Uh same same over here in

Japan. So in this sense you know how

Japan. So in this sense you know how they say that usually a leader is only a leader is only three meals away from being overthrown right. So in the sense

like the the Donald Trump is only three three times um you know filling up at the pump away from a real real problem at his hands and that that must be somewhere on his mind or on the

administration's mind. I mean Bessant

administration's mind. I mean Bessant for whatever we think about him at least when it comes to the to to to numbers in the economy he's not an idiot right?

Yeah. Well, you'd hope not, but they've seem to have been able to manipulate it or uh convince themselves that it's not that big of a deal. Now, you know,

normally uh economists or the average person looks at inflation in just one dimension. They think, "Oh, we've printed we got too many dollars

chasing too few goods." But sometimes inflation is a function of people printing too much money. But that's not what we're going. We got we got a

genuine inflation being caused by shortages.

Yeah.

And those shortages are then cascading through the entire economy. It doesn't

just stop at one spot. It it it ripples out just like throwing a rock into the water. Those ripples go go out uh you

water. Those ripples go go out uh you know to the shoreline. So that that's, you know, it's going to affects the price of food. Uh, and it and then it's

going to affect people's decisions. How

much money am I willing to go spend to eat out?

Mhm.

You know, I I don't know why why this is so hard. I mean, if if the price of

so hard. I mean, if if the price of energy goes up, how are you going to get a bottle of water that's bottled somewhere, I don't know, in in center of of the US, how we going to get it at the

to the coast or vice versa? Everything

has to go up because everything needs to be transported. For transport, you need

be transported. For transport, you need energy. Period. So,

energy. Period. So,

and and most of that transport is done over with diesel vehicles.

Um now, uh China is somewhat immune to this because a large number of their trucks are electric. So, you know, the the electricity isn't price isn't going

up that that fast. And that's this actually may drive a shift to electric vehicles for many people.

It it does. I was recently in China in Shanghai and the the number of electric vehicles is amazing. Not a single bike, you know, a motorbike with a with a um combustion engine. Not a single one in

combustion engine. Not a single one in Shanghai. It's quite

Shanghai. It's quite They had all the all all of the electric bikes right?

Yeah. electric bikes and a lot on a lot of electric cars including of course two different license plate one for electric one for uh combustion engines and the combustion engine is much more the license plate is much more expensive

very interesting um but let's go back to Iran um so how long do you think it will take for the white house to actually fire whoever fed them that kind of information and start dealing with

reality instead of dealing with that that that absolute bizarre image because the Iranians by now have made it very clear they keep their course. They just

keep demanding having their demands and they hammer them in and they have a very clear strategy. We're just just like,

clear strategy. We're just just like, "No, we we're staying on course." The

one thing that surprised me is that they are still willing to negotiate, but they they they keep steady.

Well, you notice this is the same phenomena we've observed with respect to the Russians and negotiations with them.

The West refuses to listen to what the Russians say and they always come up with some bizarre explanations about something else going on instead of that.

The the Russians consistently have stated this is our position just as the Iranians have.

The the West refuses to live in reality land together. I mean the Russians, the

land together. I mean the Russians, the Iranians, the Chinese do and they say look this is the case. This is what what what we need and this is what we want.

and the the the west, I mean US and and Europe constantly say like no the case is completely different and reality looks like X therefore you must do Y and

then every the others just go like uh no. So how long can this continue?

no. So how long can this continue?

Well, it it continues until external events occur that compel the the leaders to come to grips with reality. So uh

like with respect to Iran um the the I think the catalyst will be the economic an economic crisis, a

global economic crisis will finally compel uh Trump to break out of this uh you know pathological

dependence on on Israel. The it's been very interesting the last 24 hours as news of the possibility of the United States and Iran the negotiations is that

broke uh uh there uh hang on I was getting I just I just got a tip that it'll be relevant here let me let me take a quick look at this

please please is I'd asked uh I'd asked a question I said NBC is reporting that the Saudi Saudis have refused to allow the US to

use any of their airfields. Now, they're

pissed off at Trump for announcing Project Freedom without consulting with them in the first place. And I asked somebody who's in a position to know. I

said, "Is that is that true?" He says, um, and my friend said, "Yes, there's been an insane amount of thrash right now figuring out how to adjust, uh, the

combined forces, uh, aviation component commander scheme of maneuver since we can't launch or recover anything out of

Prince Saudi Prince Saud Air Base right now. So that is so NB NBC's NBC's uh,

now. So that is so NB NBC's NBC's uh, got an accurate report there. That that

means okay so project freedom was mainly about the US trying to figure out a way to uh to evacuate their material and people from Prince air base doing it under the cover of saying like oh we

going to humanitarian evacuate the ships that are stuck there. Um and now they had to abandon that within 24 hours and but this the side effect is that the Saudis are really really pissed off now

because this was all done over their head. Um, basically again like throwing

head. Um, basically again like throwing them potentially under the bus again.

Well, yeah. Well, and also they'd been promised, hey man, this is this thing will be over in 4 days. We'll we'll have the Ron will be defeated. They they

won't lay a glove on you.

How'd that work out? Not too well. Uh,

in fact, it turns out that uh uh Iran has beaten beaten two nuclear powers. They didn't

even need a nuke to beat the nuclear powers. So, uh, that that's starting to

powers. So, uh, that that's starting to resonate throughout the Gulf. And, uh,

so that that's that's interesting with the Saudis because that goes back to, I think, the contacts with China and Russia. They're they're working

Russia. They're they're working diplomatic channels with the Saudis, with the Qataris. So, um, this this really this creates a problem for the

United States. and uh any any attempts

United States. and uh any any attempts they thought about launching, you know, what what I had what I heard and had on pretty good uh pretty good confirmation

that that the US was likely to start launching uh raids uh you know new attacks in Iran uh the se you're today

for you the 7th but uh I think I think that may be put on hold now in part because the Saudis are saying oh no you're not flying anything else out of our country forget about

So actually this is now happening. H the

the the fir Saudi Arabia is now confirmed to have said US you're not using our territory anymore.

Right. Right. So, um, that's, uh, you know, that and apparently according to NBC, Trump got on the phone with Muhammad bin Salman to say, "Oh, hey

buddy, you know, listen." And Salman just said, "No, no." He told him, I think he told him, "Look, you keep saying you're going to defend us and yet

you keep taking these actions independent of us that that then put us at more risk. We're the ones suffering the damage, not you.

No, no, we're not. We're not playing that anymore. And I think they're

that anymore. And I think they're actually going to get a better offer from Russia and China.

Yeah.

Because both both are using the same language about security architecture, a new structure, a new approach to security for the Gulf. The previous

scheme was one based upon uh having the United States locked and loaded to attack Iran, providing military equipment, but in exchange for the

Saudis and the Qataris buying billions of dollars in US treasuries, you know, providing billions of dollars of support to a US government that is not looking

out for their interests at all.

Yeah. Yeah, and we've seen the Chinese approach of trying to broker uh rush between Saudi Arabia and Iran and well that one took a dip again. Uh but when

both chi when all three China uh Russia and Iran talk about the security architecture what they talk about is not the US approach which is like deterrence which is basically a gun at the head of

the other one. uh it's actually trying to figure out a uh a living together right and something that would make sense without constant constantly threatening each other which is of

course connectivity especially when it comes to the Chinese and we know by now that actually part of the bombing campaign of the US was to try to smash up trade uh land trade links roots and

uh railway in Iran that connects Iran with with China um it's pretty clear that they would that that That's the strategy, right? The the one side tries

strategy, right? The the one side tries to connect, the other the other side tries to sabotage those connections, right? And let's look at again, let's

right? And let's look at again, let's look at what's transpired in the last week.

Um, Russia made the announcement that it in the future, it's going to if you want to buy its oil, you're going to pay for it in yuan.

Mhm.

So, they they want it paid for in the Chinese currency. Uh, China two days ago

Chinese currency. Uh, China two days ago told its uh its refineries and banks that have been threatened with sanctions if they they purchased Iranian oil or

Russian oil for that matter, they said, "Screw the screw the American sanctions.

Ignore them. We're not we're not going to we're not going to enforce at all.

And if they come after you, we got your back." So, you know, that and and the

back." So, you know, that and and the language used was language of defiance.

something that's really sort of uncharacteristic. The Chinese usually

uncharacteristic. The Chinese usually are painfully polite in the dipl it was very undiplomatic language. So, you know, Trump has

language. So, you know, Trump has succeeded in, you know, galvanizing and building a new alliance between uh Russia, China, and Iran. And it's now

going to extend other members of the Gulf. and and not only that but also set

Gulf. and and not only that but also set in motion what was needed in order to get as a separate infrastructure ready.

What's your what's your take on the insurance issue? Because you know uh

insurance issue? Because you know uh threatening a blockade and threatening to board ships etc. you can you can threaten that even if you don't have the capability to do so. And in the old

world five years ago when you threatened that to to ships uh like let's say Russian oil tankers and so on what would happen is that these that that all of the insurance companies the reinsurance

companies um most of them in London would then uh decide not to insure those ships which means they're basically stranded because nobody sails without insurance because the stuff is just too expensive. Now in the meantime in the

expensive. Now in the meantime in the last five years a whole different economy has emerged and Russian insurers and so on. And apparently even in the Iran war I mean the ships never stopped going through the straight there were

always ships that actually had insurance and managed to go. So it means this insurance must come from outside the west doesn't it?

Well let me let me ask you a question.

This well we'll do a test here. I love

giving the professor a test. M

in 2000, which country in the world was most represented in the top 10 banks in in in 2000?

My gut feeling is I would want to say Switzerland, but it probably was the the the London. It was the city of London.

the London. It was the city of London.

Japan.

Japan had five of the top 10 banks in the world in 2000.

Right. the the number one bank at the time was Deutsche Bank and then uh the par Paris bank was a BNC BNP something like that

pariva uh Pari that's it um and then uh then you had uh two the number three and four

positions were like by Japan and then like uh five 8 nine were by Japan I think uh HSBC BC was there on the list,

JP Morgan, etc. So that's 2000.

Today and and in in you know 2025 the top 10 are China's got the top four positions

and you know China wasn't even on the list 2000 you know 25 years ago. Uh then

US got Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase. Uh then you've got uh one uh HSBC

Chase. Uh then you've got uh one uh HSBC and Britain uh part of the the the the French bank and I think there's a Swiss

bank. Uh notice Germany Germany just and

bank. Uh notice Germany Germany just and there's one Japanese bank Mitsubishi.

So Japan went from having five of the top banks in the world 25 years ago to gone. China went from nothing to now

gone. China went from nothing to now it's got the top the four largest banks in the world. So that that right there that shows you the shift in economic power.

Mhm.

This it's not the city of London. You

know this this fixation with the city of London by some is just you know foolishness because it's not it's not the Ross Shields bank that's uh running

the Chinese banks. And you know the interesting thing that I also know from my from that friend is that uh the Japanese banks are actually quite um the

they're they're quite worried because they are plugged into the western system. Um and even if they wanted to

system. Um and even if they wanted to plug into the Chinese, they couldn't.

The the the Chinese market is completely utterly separate. The Russians the

utterly separate. The Russians the Russians are compatible, she said. So if

the sanctions were lifted, you could you could redo business with the Russians, but you can't you can't do it with the Chinese because the the systems are kept completely separate, not just the regulations, but the systems.

So I mean does that does that show us now that you know the um sanctions are going to be less and less useful and even blockades are going to be less useful if you are not unfortunately

sitting in in Havana where you know you're kind of basically in the embrace the physical embrace of the United States. Outside of that, you basically

States. Outside of that, you basically now have a separate infrastructure to work with.

Yeah, it is u well well what we're witnessing is the restructuring of the international financial system which translates into a

restructuring of the political system.

So I mean these two are intertwined and that's why you know I've used the analogy of the what what we're witnessing what started on February 28th with the shuttering of the straight of

Hormuz which then was essentially cutting off 20% of the world supply of oil 25% of the global supply of liquid

natural gas uh 35% of the ura used for fertilizer I don't know the percentage on helium and sulfuric acid but it's significant.

Um those all, you know, once those shortages hit, it's like with the tsunami, when the tsunami first starts, all the water runs out towards the ocean.

It doesn't care. And so if you're sitting there on the beach, you think, "Oh, isn't this cool?" If you if you didn't know what a tsunami was, you'd think, "Oh man, look at all the open beach we got." And you can see, you

know, fish flopping around, etc. But if you know about a tsunami, you know that's the time to get your butt out of the beach chair. and start running for high ground because then the flood's

going to come back in and it comes back in viciously. And that's what we're

in viciously. And that's what we're starting to see. That's what we're starting to see, you know, where the price of oil is going up and there's not a fix to it. It's not like you can flip a switch and have some other country in

OPEC start producing more. They're

limited in the in that regard. So um

we've we've seen you know Iraqi has been a very very busy man uh since uh a week ago Monday um because well actually week

you know almost two weeks now he started remember he started in Islamabad went to Muscat and Oman went back to Islamabad then a week ago Monday up to St.

Petersburg with Putin. And then the next day back back in Iran, he's on the phone with uh Turkey, uh the Saudis, uh the

Iraqis, uh the uh I think even the Syrians, believe it or not, uh and the Qataris,

Kuwaitis. He didn't didn't talk to UAE.

Kuwaitis. He didn't didn't talk to UAE.

So, you know, and he's briefing him up on this is where this is the status.

this is what's taking place. These are

our plans going forward, you know, trying to trying to build a relationship and and and and it appears now to be bearing some fruit. So, this uh this war

may come to a stop if simply because the United States will no longer be able to use military facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Qatar will be the next shoe to drop.

We'll see if they do it.

And if your analogy is is is is correct, then we are not too far away from the moment when the United States will actually start asking Iran and the others to export more oil, please. Uh

because you need to stabilize the global uh the global oil price. The other the other thing the United States could do is to start restricting um its own

exports, right, of oil and LNG to Europe. Um is that something that could

Europe. Um is that something that could happen?

Oh, yeah. But have you seen what's I don't know if you've uh I saw this chart yesterday that the as as these price differences grow.

So the te the west the West Texas Intermediate WTI as it shows up on the oilpric.com chart.

It was like it it was barely above a 100. So again it was like some of the

100. So again it was like some of the cheapest oil out there. Well guess what people around the world that's what they're buying. So the United States

they're buying. So the United States actually its exports have gone up so dramatically that's creating shortages here in the United States which is

exacerbating the price of gasoline.

Can't make this stuff up man.

Wow. It's like not not only shooting you're in one yourself in one foot like shooting both feet and and also working on cutting them off. Um

yeah it's uh there is uh you know it's it's like it's almost like a form of insanity. It's not rational or it is you

insanity. It's not rational or it is you know like Scott Besson the secretary of treasurer he uh uh uh he he believes

really believes these things that Iran is in desperate straight and that the US pressure is being effective in bringing change and it's not.

So again the problem of reality land uh and of course the the markets for instance they they navigate somewhere in between there right the reality land will always catch up but uh you can you can live in a fantasy for a while and

the price will will chase a fantasy until reality land hits but the the so where does that leave us then for the for the development because it seems to me that what you're saying is that the

United States will lose the capability to implement its military strategy toward Iran and so things are now winding down in a sense naturally. But

will there be a moment when when the United States will be forced to actually come to the table and and uh make make concessions that Iran wants? Most

importantly, lift those lift lift sanctions, lift them, lift them.

Yeah. Yeah. That that's Iran's position is firm. Iran is under no pressure to

is firm. Iran is under no pressure to surrender and uh Iran is going to has made its demands clear what it wants and up to

this point the United States is ignoring that as the economic situation worsens both in the United States and throughout Asia. U there growing political pressure

Asia. U there growing political pressure on the United States to get this fixed.

Now, we're we're at that stage now in terms of the disruption of the commodities that even if if everything ended tomorrow and they say, "Okay, we're

turning the taps back on and there wasn't really any damage that had to be repaired, you'd still be probably six months away from getting back to a

stable market. And so that there's going

stable market. And so that there's going to be significant chaos uh during during those intervening six months, right? So, and maybe as a last point,

right? So, and maybe as a last point, what's your assessment about the situation of uh Israel because that's like historically one of the biggest spoilers of any kind of winding down of

violence. And we can see how they

violence. And we can see how they continue operations in in Lebanon. We we

see how they continue their operations also in Gaza. the the our mass media still tells us it's a ceasefire. I mean,

even when there are like dozens of people dying a day, it's still called a fragile ceasefire, which obviously it's not. What's your assessment of the

not. What's your assessment of the Israeli situation?

Israel's panicked right now. Um there

are reports that that Trump's decisions both regarding project freedom and then the negotiations that are with uh using

the Pakistanis as intermediaries with Iran that they have not pre-coordinated that with Israel and so there Israel's

dead you reports that Netanyahu and Catz they're all you know calling different people I guarantee you they're calling Miriam Adlesen Marryiam Adlesen's who's got a direct line to Trump is going to

call him up and say what the hell's going on. So uh they're they're going to

going on. So uh they're they're going to um uh you know I I think I think that kind of pressure is going to also work on Trump to try to he's going he's going

to be pressured to strike continue striking at at Iran and not not pursuing the peace. the the the pressures on him

the peace. the the the pressures on him are growing and and he's not he's not going to be a he's going to have to make a choice here within you know within the

next five to seven days but could they I mean some of the information I I got last week is that the US is down like the the this miss the missile inventory of patriots and fabs and so on is down

50 60%. It's like, is the capacity to

50 60%. It's like, is the capacity to strike conventionally with conventional weapons at Iran still given um right now? Is there still enough material in

now? Is there still enough material in in the region that could be fired?

Oh, they've got on the offensive side.

Um they are short. You know, the Tomahawk inventory is way out as is the JASM. Those are the long range cruise

JASM. Those are the long range cruise missiles that are fired from the F-35.

uh the the the air defense uh system is e even worse shape. You

know, I know CNN reported that like the the Pack 3 missiles were down 50%. No, I

guarantee they're down 90%.

Uh and they're very very short. Say same

with that because when you're dealing with uh interceptor systems that did not have a substantial uh you know the total

production of pack 3es through the end of December of 2025 was 6,420.

And when you when you understand that two of those interceptors have to be fired at an incoming missile, uh then

you realize that although you got 6,420, you're you actually could only attack and defeat 2,310

ballistic cruise missiles andor drones.

Well, when you look at how many uh right now, you know, we gave a thousand of those pack 3es to Ukraine and Russia has fired over 12,000 14,000 missiles in the

last four years, you know. So, clearly the there not

you know. So, clearly the there not enough Patriot missiles. They put a dent in the Russia, assuming that they weren't worth a damn, which they don't.

Uh they're not effective against the ballistic missiles. They're they're

ballistic missiles. They're they're effective can be pretty effective against some subsonic systems, but particularly those that are supersonic, forget about it.

Right. Right. So, that doesn't leave a lot of options open and yeah, Israel must be in in in quite dire straits. But

uh um maybe maybe last point. Do you

think Iran will continue connecting its negotiation strategy also with Lebanon and um and and Gaza or will this be something that they probably are willing

to uh to compromise on?

No, I don't think they'll compromise on that. Not at all. Particularly with the

that. Not at all. Particularly with the fact that the Israelis murdered not not only the Ayatollah but murdered those 168 girls,

right? uh the girl the girls of Midan

right? uh the girl the girls of Midan that lives on in the memory of the Iranian people and that's one that they're not going to forget it you know

u here Americans should try to appreciate this the we're now 25 this will be the 25th anniversary of the

attacks on 911 right September of this year u but there's still every so far they still come on the morning of 9/11

to read the names of every victim and the family members that people who 25 years ago were, you know, eight-year-old kids and their dad died, you know, now

they're standing there. They're 33 years old. So it's it's a little bit like, you

old. So it's it's a little bit like, you know, like, if you will, a modified March of the Immortals. You know, the the Russians in in remembering those who

died in the Great Patriotic War on May 9th, they marched through the streets holding the pictures of their grandfathers, their great-grandfathers, their great-grandmothers, their uncles,

great uncles, those who fought and died uh in that uh terrible war. And so it's that kind of memory that that's playing

out in Iran that th this this left an indelible mark that they're not going to forgive or forget.

Right. Right. No. Okay. That's um that that does make a lot of sense. And since

Iran is actually since Iran is winning the war, its version of what this war was about is the one that's going to be prevalent, especially in the uh in the nonwest. Um Larry, that was very very um

nonwest. Um Larry, that was very very um comprehensive. Thank you so much. Uh

comprehensive. Thank you so much. Uh

people who want to read you and see more of you, they should go, of course, to your wonderful homepage, sonar21.com, right?

Yes, that's it.

And uh I'm I'm at also Larry C. Johnson

at Substack. So that's an alternative.

Uh yeah, I was gonna say people want to subscribe. A lot of people like to

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it's a wonderful model and I recommend it to everybody. I do the same on Substack. And please do leave a

Substack. And please do leave a subscription at Larry uh Larry Substack, a paid subscription because Larry was also kicked off YouTube. I must remind everybody, you were kicked off YouTube.

You were not you're not allowed to to be there. But on Substack, there's still

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support you. Everybody, please leave a sub subscription with Larry Substack or on his homepage. Larry Johnson, thank you so much for your time today.

Hey Pascal, it's always a pleasure, my friend. And uh one of these days I hope

friend. And uh one of these days I hope to meet up with you in person.

I hope so. We we will do so soon. See

you.

Okay. Take care. Bye-bye.