Ships Stranded at Hormuz: 1 March 2026 Update | Is the Strait Open or Closed?

on this the March 1st 2026 edition of what's going on with shipping. Is the

straight of Hormuz open or closed? I'm

your host Sal Maglaniano. Welcome to

today's episode. If you're new to the channel, let me introduce myself. I'm a

former merchant mariner turned academic.

I hold degrees in maritime history, but I also do maritime policy and maritime security. So, this is a complex

security. So, this is a complex question. It is not a very clear-cut

question. It is not a very clear-cut answer I'm going to give you, but I want you to understand what is happening right now in the straight of hormuz.

This channel does not talk about politics. Doesn't talk about whether or

politics. Doesn't talk about whether or not the US should be striking along with Israel, Iran. We're not talking about

Israel, Iran. We're not talking about that. We're talking about global

that. We're talking about global shipping and commerce in particularly the flow of oil in and out of the straight of Hormuz. So to do that, we're going to go over to Marine Traffic.

Anyone who wants to follow this, go load Marine Traffic on your phone, pull it up on your computer. It is the best app in my opinion to track ocean shipping around the world. This is the straight

of Hormuz right now. And in particularly this area here is the straight up here in the north. This is Iran. Iran is all along this coast here, this northern

coast. And then down here you have the

coast. And then down here you have the southern tip here. This is Oman. And

then over here is the United Arab Emirates. And you'll notice that the

Emirates. And you'll notice that the strait is pretty denude of shipping right now. Uh green dots represent

right now. Uh green dots represent freighers. Red represent tankers.

freighers. Red represent tankers.

Normally you would see a big flow going through here. That would give you the

through here. That would give you the indication that the straight of Hormuz is closed. But to me closed means it's

is closed. But to me closed means it's not open for business. A door is barred.

You can't go through if you want to.

That's not the case here. Ships have

checked up on each side of the straight.

You'll notice these large red dots here.

This big huge massive anchorage does south of the straight of Hormuz. Another

one here off Fujera. And then another one here in the UAE. Those anchorages

are always there. Be clear. You go back in time and go look at this. They're

always always there. Ships are always kind of waiting to go into loading ports in and around the Persian Gulf and this region. What is happening right now is

region. What is happening right now is the ocean carriers, those who operate ships, largely tankers, but there's also other commercial ships that go in and out of here, have decided to basically

sit back and wait a minute and let's see what happens between the US, Israel, and Iran. The other issue here, and the

Iran. The other issue here, and the important one to understand, is war risk insurance. So, everything in shipping is

insurance. So, everything in shipping is geared to insurance. I I I can't say this enough. Uh money is what makes this

this enough. Uh money is what makes this industry go around and without insurance ships are not going to take the risk.

Shipping is all about minimizing your risk and right now if a ship sails through the straits of Hormuz and gets hit by a missile, a drone or something like that, you need war risk. Warris

does not cover basically if you get hit by a missile or drone. You are not covered if you just have your standard what's called PNI protection and indemnity insurance which covers the cargo or your H&M hull and machinery

which covers the ship. You need what's called AP additional protection. Sorry

for all the acronyms. It's just the way industries are. You need additional

industries are. You need additional protection. Well, with the strikes by

protection. Well, with the strikes by the US and Israel against Iran, all the insurers have said you need more insurance to sail through this. And so

shipping firms are waiting. Either they

won't pay the additional insurance and they're waiting for everything to subside or they're going to have to pay the insurance to go through. No matter

what to see those little red dots start flowing back through here again, they will have to make a choice. Either to

get the insurance or take the risk.

Understand 20% of global oil comes out of this straight. And without those ships moving, large economies, particularly in East Asia, China, Japan,

Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, are going to run out of gas, and that's going to be a major problem. All right, let's go ahead

major problem. All right, let's go ahead and break down this for you in a little bit more detail. I want to give you that big huge overview, but now let's look at the specific stories that have been transpiring over the past day or so. I

did an update yesterday on this. You can

catch that for all the bigger background issues, but today we're going to look at what's happened over largely the past 24 hours. and I'm going to show you on

hours. and I'm going to show you on Marine Traffic how that has transpired.

If you're new to the channel, hey, take a moment, subscribe to the channel, and hit the bell so you be alerted about new videos as they come out. So, this is the past 24 hours on marine traffic. You'll

notice up here in the far north, this large cluster of green dots, these are cargo ships waiting to go into Iran. And

you'll see some vessels, this is about about 24 hours ago, the last of the tankers were coming out of the straight of Hormoo. So, you're still seeing some

of Hormoo. So, you're still seeing some traffic here at this time. So, a couple of key stories here I'm going to run through with you and I'll have a link to all these down in the in the description of the video so that you can link over

to them. So, Operation Epic Fury, that's

to them. So, Operation Epic Fury, that's the name of the operation. Iranian

corvette sunk by US reports first fatalities in widening conflict. So the

US besides targeting strikes throughout for the political uh structure of Iran, they have also targeted the naval forces in particularly naval forces that are

based up here around Bondar Abbis and at a port outside in the Gulf of Oman. Uh

not surprising they did that. They

really don't want naval forces coming out. There's a big question about

out. There's a big question about whether or not they have targeted yet the uh Iranian 3 kilo class submarines.

So we're waiting to hear that. There was

a report by Iran that they used four ballistic missiles to strike the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln out in the Arabian Sea. Uh that has been denied by

Arabian Sea. Uh that has been denied by Central Command. Uh it's very tough to

Central Command. Uh it's very tough to hit a moving target with ballistic missiles, especially the USS Abraham Lincoln that has a layered defense of of

warships, destroyers, and aircraft around it. It's one thing to hit a slowm

around it. It's one thing to hit a slowm moving freighter in the Red Sea from Yemen with ballistic missiles. It's a

whole other thing to hit the Lincoln battle group. However, the central

battle group. However, the central command did acknowledge the loss of three uh military personnel probably in the strikes in Bahrain. Then we have

this story by Paul Morgan over at G Captain. Choke points under pressure

Captain. Choke points under pressure when geography and conflict strain the arteries of global trade. Uh my channel has looked at choke points throughout the area and one of the things we always

talk about is how vulnerable choke points are to attacks and these uh chokepoint attacks are extremely the case of the straight of Hormuz I mentioned to you before 20% of global

oil comes out of this straight absolutely essential now the United States does not get as much oil from here as ever before almost none as a matter of fact the vast majority of this is heading to East Asia heading over to

South Asia to India to Indonesia Asia and some of it is traveling over to Europe. And we have this story from

Europe. And we have this story from Bloomberg. President Trump's decision to

Bloomberg. President Trump's decision to strike Iran creates a new risk for a significant chunk of the world's oil supply. The Islamic Republic of Iran

supply. The Islamic Republic of Iran pumps more than 3 million barrels a day or 3% of global output. So we get about 20 million barrels a day out of this and

3% come from Iran. Iran right now is loading tankers up at Carg Island. Uh

this is something that they are doing.

uh they are not stopping the flow of their oil because understand the country that suffers probably the worst in a straight of hormuz shutdown is Iran.

Other countries will suffer Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and the Saudi Arabia.

Now UAE and Saudi Arabia have a little bit flexibility here and they have pipelines that come out of the area but Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait do not. They

have to get out of this area and the same with Iran. Iraq has one that kind of goes up into the northern fringes, but the southern fields of Iraq have to come out through the Persian Gulf. And

that's a big issue here. Then we get this. At least 150 oil and gas tankers

this. At least 150 oil and gas tankers drop anchor in Gulf waters after strikes in Iran. I've already talked about this.

in Iran. I've already talked about this.

This are those tankers checking up right here, waiting for either the the the fighting to stop or to get that additional war risk protection and sail through the region.

This story comes from Lloyd's list.

Trading houses suspend oil shipments through Straight of Hormuz, but traffic flows for now. So, senior traders said that oil shipments through the Straight of Hormuz will be halted following radio

hailings from the Iranian forces. I have

that recording in my yesterday's video.

No clear announcements from Iran regarding the closure. Uh, vessels

observed making U-turns in the Middle East Gulf and Gulf of Oman, but some traffic still flowing through the Straits of Hormuz. And that is true. are

seeing some traffic flow through. At

least one tanker observed making a U-turn near the Bobbell Mandab straight.

Cheers. Tradition here and what what's going on when shipping when you mention the the Bobbell Mandab. Grab whatever

you have close and have a drink.

Sorry, we still have to have a little bit of levity here in a very serious situation. This is amid the Houthi

situation. This is amid the Houthi threats. The Houthis have announced that

threats. The Houthis have announced that they're going to resume strikes down in the Red Sea region.

Then we get this story. Oil tanker

Skylight hit off Oman coast injuring four crew members. So a lot of misconceptions about this vessel. This is a small

11,000 ton 20-year-old Palao flagged basically a refueling vessel. This

vessel I pulled the track for it over the past year. It operates almost exclusively within the Persian Gulf. It

made one trip out to India but almost exclusively down from Iraq down to the UAE. And what this vessel does is refuel

UAE. And what this vessel does is refuel other ships. There is a video which I am

other ships. There is a video which I am going to show you right now. And I'm

going to keep this running right here.

This is the video right here showing you the vessel on fire. Uh

supposedly I killed the audio here. Supposedly uh

four crew members were injured on board.

Uh it's a mixed crew of Indian and Iranian on board. And one of the things I note is the fire is located in the afterouse. So, they're saying that this

afterouse. So, they're saying that this was because of a strike. Again, we're

only taking the words we have. This ship

was not transiting the Straight of Hormuz. This ship actually was uh

Hormuz. This ship actually was uh anchored just over here, just south of the Straight of Hormuz, and had been sitting there since February 22nd. So,

uh it's not like this vessel is moving.

This vessel is also under sanctions by both the United States and the EU. It

carried a cargo of Iranian oil back in 2023. So, the ship has been held under a

2023. So, the ship has been held under a sanction for quite a long period of time. Not sure who hit this vessel, what

time. Not sure who hit this vessel, what caused the strike, but this is not a vessel that was transiting the straight of Hormuz.

Then we get this story also over from Lloyd's list. This is Richard Me. Middle

Lloyd's list. This is Richard Me. Middle

East ports suspend operations amid fears of attacks. Operations suspended in

of attacks. Operations suspended in Dubai, Oman and Bahani ports, but others remain open. Jebel Ali suspended after

remain open. Jebel Ali suspended after intercepted missile causes fire. And

then they mentioned the one sanctioned oil tanker on fire, while unconfirmed reports of a second indicate an explosion.

And then we have this story also from uh Lloyd's list regarding not tankers but container ships. Iran attacks prompt Red

container ships. Iran attacks prompt Red Sea rethink as box shipping exit the straits of Hormuz. Carriers halt Hormuz Transit, suspend Suez Red Sea routings

amid Iran conflict risks. We had just had companies um Maris CacM and others announced they were expanding their routes through the Red Sea. Maris was

just coming back into this and now all of them are saying they're suspending traffic through the Red Sea because of the reciprocal threat being posed by the

Houthi against shipping. There are about 170 container ships totaling 450,000 TEUs. Those are 20 foot boxes are stuck

TEUs. Those are 20 foot boxes are stuck inside Hormuz. Middle East Gulf ports

inside Hormuz. Middle East Gulf ports report shutdowns and disruptions. All

told, there's about 750 commercial ships inside the Persian Gulf right now, of which 170 are container ships. Freight

impacts depend on how long Hormuz stays constrained. I like the word

constrained. I like the word constrained. That is a good word. It's

constrained. That is a good word. It's

not closed. It's constrained. Some

vessels may get exemptions. We're

hearing this already that some Chinese vessels are getting exemptions. And the

country that needs to be talked about here is China because when you look at the flow of oil out of this region, out of Iraq, out of Iran, out of Kuwait,

Bahrain, uh, Qatar, uh, Saudi Arabia, UAE, man, where a lot of that oil flows is right over to China, and it really needs to be talked about. MSE,

Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM, the large French line, and Hapag Lloyd, which is a German line, all order ships to seek uh safe shelter. I have no clue what you can where you find shelter in

the Persian Gulf. I don't know. I've

sailed the Persian Gulf. I don't know where you hide a 300 meter long, you know, thousand foot ship in the Persian Gulf. Uh there there's really not a

Gulf. Uh there there's really not a broom closet you can go running into and find a lot of shelter. Last thing I want to do is give you the updates coming out of the United Kingdom's maritime trade

operations. UK MTO is a it sounds

operations. UK MTO is a it sounds British and it is British but it really provides an international service. This

is where shipping will report any attacks or advisories to. It's kind of a central clearing house. So they've

issued a series of advisories. This is

update number two to their third advisory for 2026. Uh the maritime security environment across the ar Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, northern Arabian Sea, the Babel Mandab and the

straight of Hormuz remains highly volatile with ongoing regional military activity contributing to uh elevated threat to commercial shipping. There is

a significant military presence across the region. Mariners should be aware of

the region. Mariners should be aware of the increased risk of miscalculation or misidentification pro particularly to proximity to military units and other sensitive maritime facilities and

infrastructure. So I want to highlight

infrastructure. So I want to highlight the guidance to mariners given by the joint maritime information center. First

maintain a continuous listening watch on VHF very high frequency channel 16. This

is the international hailing channel used by all ships out on the high seas.

Second ensure AIS. This is the automated uh identification system. That's all

those dots you saw moving uh transmission in accordance with company policy. Understand there is not a

policy. Understand there is not a requirement to have AIS on all the time.

You're supposed to have it on all the time. However, there is a provision that

time. However, there is a provision that you can turn it off in case of danger. I

should also note in and around the Persian Gulf, there is a lot of what's called spoofing. Spoofing is where

called spoofing. Spoofing is where there's jamming of AIS. You get these weird formations of vessels steaming in circles. Uh that's not where they

circles. Uh that's not where they actually are. Basically, you are

actually are. Basically, you are corrupting the system and giving false readings. You also get this strictly

readings. You also get this strictly adhere to establish traffic separation schemes and recognize transit corridors.

So, one part about going through the Straits of Hormuz when you're inbound into the Straight of Hormuz, you got to stay to the right, the northern side of the straight. Uh, and what they don't

the straight. Uh, and what they don't want is ships crossing in the southern area and potential head-on collisions.

They don't want to cause accidents because of this event. Expect potential

VHF hailing from military units and be prepared to respond professionally. I I

will say if you've ever sailed in the Persian Gulf, uh, the VHF communication can be at times unprofessional and and I'll leave it at that. Uh, conduct

enhanced risk assessment prior to transit, taking in account regional military activity and insurance considerations. Again, everything about

considerations. Again, everything about shipping is insurance. I can't stress this enough. Everyone is going to

this enough. Everyone is going to minimize their risk. Ships will sail through the straight. There's no

question about this. The straight is not closed. Ships will go through when they

closed. Ships will go through when they have to go through. The crews on board and even the captains have very little control over their destinations. A

captain can refuse to sail through. A

crew can refuse to sail. They will be replaced and a new crew will be put on.

A new captain will be put on and the captain will never sail again. I mean,

that's just the case. Unfortunately,

that's the business that everyone's in.

Immediately report unusual activity, suspicious approaches, electronic interference, or incidents to the UK MTO or other recognized reporting agencies.

We then have these additional warnings.

This is warning number four. UK MTO has received a report of an incident two nautical miles north of Oman. The crew

has been evacuated and safe. Authorities

are investigating. This is the situation with the onfire vessel, the skylight.

Then we have incident number five. Uh it

has been reported over VHF channel 16 that the vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile above the waterline.

Although the engine room was originally reported as on fire, it has now been reported the fire is under control. So

this is outside the straits of Hormuz south of Iran in a region where we have seen drone and and missile strikes in the past by Iran. This is not new. Uh go

back to 2019 and Iran had a series of these types of strikes against ships in and around this area. We've also saw it in 2021. Then we have this incident

in 2021. Then we have this incident number six, the most recent one we have to date. UK MTO has received a report of

to date. UK MTO has received a report of an incident 17 mi northwest of Mina UAE.

The company security officer reported the vessel had been struck by an unknown projectile causing a fire. The fire has been extinguished and the vessel intends to continue on its voyage. So, a a lot

going on in and around the Persian Gulf, the straight of Hormuz, and out in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman. We're

going to keep monitoring this situation and keep you up to date. Again, I can't tell you how much that there's a lot of misinformation flowing out there. The

only threat the Iran has made toward shipping in the Gulf was over VHF-16, and that is an unconfirmed report. Uh

Iran has not said they've closed the straight. They have not announced an

straight. They have not announced an intention to close the straight.

However, because of the war going on right now, and it is a war when you start throwing missiles and bombs at each other, it's a war whether it's declared or not. Uh that is causing

shipping to take a pause for a moment. I

I mean again in the Red Sea, the difference between what's happening in the straight of Hormuz and the Red Sea is very simple. When the Houthis initiated their attacks at the end of 2023, end of 2024, there was an

alternative route. You can go around

alternative route. You can go around Africa. And because of the increased war

Africa. And because of the increased war risk insurance, war risk insurance went from 0.02% the value of the whole in cargo of the vessel up to 1%. If you have a billion

dollar ship, which is what some of the large container ships are, you are not going to pay 1%. That's $10 million to go through there when you can sail around Africa, pay an extra million

dollars. There was plenty of excess

dollars. There was plenty of excess capacity in shipping at the time. You're

going to go around Africa. You have that alternative. There is no alternative to

alternative. There is no alternative to the Persian Gulf. You've got to go through the straits of Hormuz. It is the culdeac of oil in the world. You've got

to go through. And during the height of the tanker war in 1980 to 1988, the straight never closed. Yet 450 ships were hit. We saw war risk insurance go

were hit. We saw war risk insurance go up to 7 to 10% of the value of the vessel. Now, oil tankers tend to be on

vessel. Now, oil tankers tend to be on the small side in terms of value.

They're not as expensive. However,

shipping will pay that. But the other constraint we have really important to note is there is a finite number of tankers out in the world. Let's change

over here to marine traffic one last time. This shows you all the tankers

time. This shows you all the tankers that are on the planet. Hi, I'm here in Siberia. But these show you all the

Siberia. But these show you all the tankers. Let's go ahead and weed out all

tankers. Let's go ahead and weed out all the tankers and shift over here to just crude oil tankers. And this shows you all the crude oil tankers in the world.

So you get an idea. You look at that line that comes out of the Persian Gulf here and heads around through the Red Sea up toward Europe and then out across the southern uh tip of India and uh Sri

Lanka through the Malaca Straits, the South China Sea, past Singapore and up here to East Asia. Now we weed out even more here. We're just looking at ships

more here. We're just looking at ships over 150,000 tons. And you see the finite amount of ships that are out there on the planet. Then we come over

here to one of my favorite sites, Tanker Trackers, who track vessels around the world, particularly tankers obviously, but they have this stat here on dark fleet. These are the vessels that are

fleet. These are the vessels that are under sanctions by the US, the EU, Great Britain, and a variety of nations. They

are tracking right now, 1482 active ships that are in the dark fleet.

But what I want to take note of right here is this. The number of tankers that are out here, including 231 very large and ultra-large crude carriers. These

are the biggest ones. What that means is we have a finite shrinking number of tankers out there in the world. It's one

thing to constrain the straight of Hormuz, but when you add the dark fleet and ships that are under sanctions, that fleet of tankers that were out there in the world is getting progressively

smaller, which is leading to an escalation in costs. So, I showed this in yesterday's report. This is Fernley's weekly report. This ended as of February

weekly report. This ended as of February 25th, so it does not include data from the strikes against Iran. But notice

here the charter rate for vessels.

Basically, they're all hitting right around4 to $50,000 per day. But then the very large crude carriers, these are the biggest ones, began to increase, grow

until January when they absolutely went off the chart. I mean, we're talking right now of charters of ships over $150,000

per day. They were at $50,000 per day a

per day. They were at $50,000 per day a few weeks ago, and now we're talking about 150,000. We could conceivably see

about 150,000. We could conceivably see ships jump as high as $200,000 a day.

Perhaps the craziest thing is looking at the price to buy used VLCC's. A very

large crude carrier at 5 years old. You

can buy them for $128 million. A

10year-old for $102 million. Understand

that price is probably more than what they paid for it when they built it 5 to 10 years ago in some cases. and expect

those prices to go up because people aren't building VLCC's and ULCC's anymore. They just don't because what we

anymore. They just don't because what we had seen happening in the global oil market was the the amount of oil that was being shipped around the world had plateaued. It basically had flattened

plateaued. It basically had flattened out because of alternative fuels and a variety of other methods. We just

weren't seeing as much oil going on. But

due to that constraint in the number of ships out there because of the dark fleet sanctioning the US grabbing 10 Venezuelan tankers, uh the Russian dark fleet not being allowed into ports, we are basically further constricting the

number of ships out there. And with

what's going on in the strait right now, this is going to send crude oil prices and crude oil charters through the roof.

And yes, unfortunately, you are going to see that metastasize at the pumps when you go pay for gas for your car, even if crude oil is not coming to you. This is

going to cause global fuel prices to increase. We'll keep you up to date and

increase. We'll keep you up to date and provide further updates as we get more information. I hope you enjoyed today's

information. I hope you enjoyed today's episode. If you did, hey, take a moment,

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because one thing we learned in shipping ship happens. This is Al signing off.

ship happens. This is Al signing off.