SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity

All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world.

It's the all-in podcast. David Saxs

couldn't make it this week, but we have the trio. David Freeberg is here, your

the trio. David Freeberg is here, your Sultan of Science, Jim Polatia. SpaceX

filed confidentially to go public on April 1st, targeting a 1.75 trillion with the T valuation. When

SpaceX goes public, if it's at that $ 1.75 uh trillion dollar valuation, so weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an IPO, uh they would be the eighth largest company in the world, right

behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco. They're

both worth $1.7. Uh at the taping of this podcast, Tesla is number 10 with $1.37 trillion valuation. Hey, if you were to combine those two, as many people are speculating, will happen at

some point and you can buy the stock ticker E, that would be a $3.1 trillion company, and that would make them the fourth largest company ahead of Microsoft. They're aiming to raise

Microsoft. They're aiming to raise Chomoth 75 billion, which would be the by far the biggest raise ever in an IPO.

Uh, expected to go out in June. I think

they were trying to hit the 420 date because that would have been even more hilarious, but uh they're not going to be able to do that.

SpaceX uh recently acquired X.AI for 250 billion. That includes X and Twitter and

billion. That includes X and Twitter and the XAI large language model AI company Starlink, generating between 50 and 80% of SpaceX's revenue. We'll have all

those details shortly. Um and it'll be close to $20 billion a year according to reports. Launch of rockets is the other

reports. Launch of rockets is the other 40% of the business, 5 billion in 2024 according to reports. Total revenue 2025 15 to6 billion with 8 billion in profit

according to Reuters. So let's stop there uh and we're going to talk about all the other IPOs that could be coming.

Uh Chamal, I think people really want to know and you may have mentioned this on an earlier episode. What are the chances

earlier episode. What are the chances that Tesla after if this IPO goes well that Tesla and SpaceX could wind up being the same company? We saw they're collaborating on a fab 100% is what you're putting it on.

Okay.

Okay. Sorry. Let me let me be clear.

99.999%.

Okay. What will that mean when if those two companies or when those two companies merge? One of the great things

companies merge? One of the great things that happened in my career was there was a point where you know how like you grind at a level and then you know you just get exposed to things at a different level and then you grind for

years and you get exposed to things at yet another level. In one of those steps, I was very fortunate to be introduced by Thomas Lefant actually to

the head of Wtel Lipton.

This is a law firm law firm and his name is Ed Hurley and he said this is the most important

well-known well-run powerful law firm in America. Then I looked at the

America. Then I looked at the transactions and they're just in the middle of everything. And now, you know, my lawyer, Raj Narian, who does everything for me, one of the senior partners at Wakdal, I can attest are

incredible. And they said to me in the

incredible. And they said to me in the middle of all of this stuff when I was doing a bunch of deals, they said, "Just get ready to pay a tax." And I said, "What does that mean?"

tax." And I said, "What does that mean?"

They said the way that the American capital markets are set up is both that you can be incredibly creative and do incredible things, but and we talked about this a little bit last week,

there's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop and get paid no matter what. You see this in all IPOs. Shareholder lawsuits abound and

IPOs. Shareholder lawsuits abound and they try to create a class out of it.

And the reason they do that is that there's DNO insurance that then will pay out some number of millions of dollars.

The attorneys take 40 or 50% and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks. You

saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued Elon's comp package at Tesla and won.

And what was that really? That was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by exploiting a scene. Call it what it was a shakeddown. Why am I bringing

this up? If you take the the Raj and Ed

this up? If you take the the Raj and Ed example of this, this SpaceX IPO is going to set up a couple of things. The

first is there's going to be the natural noise in the market and Elon will have to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things. But the most important

tacky things. But the most important positive thing that will happen from the IPO is a validated external marktomarket valuation of SpaceX.

and the market every day in real time gives you a valid marktomarket assessment of the value of Tesla. And

this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses.

And I think that that's what Elon really needs. It'll make his life tremendously

needs. It'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective.

It'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non-issue because again nobody talks about Zuck or

Satya or Sundar or Jensen allocating time across various projects inside of Meta or Google or Microsoft or Nvidia. nor should they

really make this claim from Elon because as you're seeing there's actually an enormous overlap and commonality to the various things that he is doing. He's

building the robots but they're used inside of SpaceX. He's building a terrafab they're used inside of Tesla.

He's building XAI they're used across both. So I think we need to do this.

both. So I think we need to do this.

It'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody that says, "Hey, he set evaluation out of thin air." Well,

but dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge and it speaks to the singularity that's going on right now.

You know, you had a car company, you had a space company. Okay, that was a pretty How do those two things overlap? And

it's like AI data centers in space.

Where do you get chips from? and then

actually going to raw materials inside of one factory going out the other and having discussed it with Elon many times when he learned you know at Tesla or

SpaceX about advanced materials informed different products at the different companies and now you just you'll have all of that in one place and then you think about the brain trust that he built at those two companies plus boring

company plus Neuralink if they're all in there all this cross-disciplinary learning is going to compound and compound and compound. Elon knows more about factories than probably

anybody anybody like some people in China who have you know Foxcon knows a lot about factories you know so there are some people who know as much or or probably even a little bit more about some aspects of it but that's

a true advantage of bringing those two teams together and you saw it people would go from one company to the other Freeberg my question for you very acutely with your NASA hat and uh you

know your your background today is 20 years ago He he started trying to get to space with SpaceX and here we go.

There's more rockets going off in a month now than there are days in the month for for the entire country and he's got rockets going up every 2 or 3 days. You can just basically hop on a

days. You can just basically hop on a SpaceX flight and get to space. Maybe

you could just use your vision there to tell the audience what could things look like in another 20 years if SpaceX continues at this cadence or even, you

know, goes faster because of AI. Well,

this week's a pretty important milestone for that point because we just launched Artemis 2 yesterday, which is man's returning to the moon. So, the United

States shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board. They're going to do an orbit around the Earth, head to the moon, come back around, and come back to Earth in anticipation of landing on the

moon in about 2 years.

And getting to the moon, I think, is going to be very important. Not just

because there's this important social milestone and race happening on right now with China, but I think the moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity. And

the reason is if you can get to the moon, the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine, process, and manufacture into goods. And

ultimately the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero. It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods, processed ore, uh, precious metals from

the moon to a specific point on Earth.

It will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane, or a railroad. And

the reason is that on the moon, you can take advantage of the low gravity. It's

about 16 the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere, meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off of the moon. You do not need to use a

rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off of the Earth. In fact, the design for moving

Earth. In fact, the design for moving material off of the moon is to use what's called a mass driver, which is like a a train track, like a rail, like an electric rail. You kind of see these

in, you know, high-speed trains that work on kind of magnetic levitation. And

you could put a package on that rail and use electricity to accelerate that package to 100 g force, shoot it back to the Earth, or theoretically shoot it to Mars, and it will go to the exact point

on the Earth you want it to go to, re-enters the atmosphere, and lands with a a simple parachute where you want it to go. So we could run continuous

to go. So we could run continuous mining, continuous manufacturing processes on the moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on Earth. The biggest limiting factor getting people to the moon. And

that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by robotics. So I

think that there's this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in robotics with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon. So, you know, Tesla, I think 20

moon. So, you know, Tesla, I think 20 years from now is actually a more interesting story, whether they're the same independent company or the same company. I think we're going to look

company. I think we're going to look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that Tesla started out as an electric car company.

100% ended up becoming an autonomous car company. And the autonomous competency

company. And the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution.

and the robotics revolution. Even if the socialists ban robotics on Earth and tell us no robots allowed, they're taking all the jobs, you could ship all those robots to the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new

manufacturing frontier for our civilization, for humanity. That

frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back. You

could manufacture semiconductors on the moon. All that's missing is the robots.

moon. All that's missing is the robots.

So moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to build themselves on the moon is kind of the first phase of this transition, you know, asking about 20 years from now.

And then the next phase is building this all out. So look, I mean, I think that

all out. So look, I mean, I think that this may not be and it certainly won't be limited to just SpaceX. But SpaceX is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the railroads. You know,

what the railroads were to the west and to the frontier in the west, you know, in the last generation. SpaceX will be to the moon and ultimately to Mars. And

there's going to be an extraordinary abundance of production that's going to come out of the moon. The moon has everything by the way and I'll say one more thing about SpaceX. SpaceX has also created and this is going to be a big part of the valuation analysis that many

are doing. They've created a backup to

are doing. They've created a backup to the internet. You know the internet is

the internet. You know the internet is fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network and the connectivity amongst all those nodes.

And that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable. So in

space with the number of satellites going up with Starlink and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX has largely built a backup internet. And

that backup internet can coincide with the Earth's internet, but it creates this extraterrestrial communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about, hey, if governments collapse, if there's

civilizational upheaval, etc., etc., etc., this becomes, I think, a fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's going to exist in parallel. So, I'm pretty excited about like these two separate

paths for SpaceX and where they intersect with Tesla, I think, is pretty profound at the moment.

Yeah. And it can't be understated what lowering the cost per kilogram to get to space has done to entrepreneurs around the company. There's multiple

the company. There's multiple entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid mining or VA doing experimentation in space and I have a I've been doing some

latestage stuff with my syndicate and one of the interesting companies we syndicated we we did zipline which is a great company but we also did this company called VAS vast space uh Jed is the

founder he he created uh Ripple and uh and and some other crypto projects and he put a lot of his money hundreds of millions of dollars into this company vast case and they're designing a space

station. How did they do it? Well, they

station. How did they do it? Well, they

just bought carriage on SpaceX rockets and they paid in advance. They have

their slot and now they're doing this massive innovation to make modular space station components.

Here's what I'll And the thesis is, hey, what if Google or Amazon want to have a space station in space? You know, it's completely

in space? You know, it's completely possible they may want that.

Here's what I'll say. I think

sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. There are all of these ways that

good. There are all of these ways that so many people will end up with participation into SpaceX. I think we all owe Elon an enormous thanks. I think

that this is going to unleash just an unbelievably large economy of things that we have no idea about. And when I

see this thing, that video that you just showed, what it reminds me is that we have an very rudimentary capability in space. What does that mean? If you take,

space. What does that mean? If you take, if you catch a ride on Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy, basically it's dropping you off at 550 km. I think you have a different problem if you're trying to

get to geo. But even if you get dropped off at 500 or 550, how do you get to your actual orbital plane? Right? So

meaning if you think of Elon as like the big container ships that go from China to America once it gets to Long Beach, you need FedEx. There's an entire infrastructure there that's going to get

all of this logistics built last mile.

There's a huge garbage collection problem that's getting built up. We

still haven't technically solved how to do garbage collection in space. There's

nets, there's magnetic plates. All of

that is getting fixed. Then there's

going to be an explosion in actual power generation. The cell composition of

generation. The cell composition of solar cells up in space are materially different. It's a really incredible

different. It's a really incredible thing. You look at these thin sheets,

thing. You look at these thin sheets, they are like one millimeter thick. You

if you carried it on your hand, the glass breaks, yet you can smash a meteor into it when it's laid and laminated and nothing happens. It's like the It's like

nothing happens. It's like the It's like So my point is in every single dimension of what the earthly economy looks like,

it's now going to go and get rebuilt in space. There will be a FedEx of space.

space. There will be a FedEx of space.

There'll be a MK of space. There'll be a I don't know what the garbage collection companies are. Allied Waste of Space.

companies are. Allied Waste of Space.

There's going to be everything of space that exists in the United States.

Freeberg just talked about the Freeport Macaran of space. Like everything

and that we owe to him.

Yeah. And I hope he gets that credit because the amount of businesses I think that can get created and the amount of value that will be created on top of

SpaceX's shoulders is vast. It's the

beginning of the beginning of the beginning and it's going to create enormous opportunities for people who are smart and resourceful.

And Freeberg, maybe you could comment on the PGMs, the palladium that's on asteroids and just how they're rare here on Earth. If we had an unlimited supply

on Earth. If we had an unlimited supply or a continuous supply of those minerals, you know, what what could the downstream effect of that be? And then

what if we find things in space that we are unaware of? There are unknown unknowns. Correct, Freeberg, when you

unknowns. Correct, Freeberg, when you start to conceptualize this. I do think like the asteroid mining is an interesting concept but I do think it's going to be more likely that we'll have the need for infrastructure so we can

produce ores and refine and so on versus you know bringing chunky rock back. I

think that you could do this very effectively on the moon. The primary

elements that are missing from the moon that we have on the earth are you know carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen and oxygen. basically

these things that make life on Earth.

But that's because they primarily exist in a gaseous form and the Earth has enough gravity to retain those gases and have an atmosphere. The moon is too small to maintain an atmosphere. The

gravity is too little. So those gases all kind of went away. They evaporated

away in the early formation of the Earth and the Moon. But on the moon, there's everything else. There's aluminum,

everything else. There's aluminum, there's silicon, there's palladium, there's platinum, there's gold, there's everything you possibly need. So, I

think as we do the calculus on all of this, we'll end up realizing that the moon is probably the best frontier. One

of the biggest issues is dissipating heat because you don't have an atmosphere. But theoretically, you could

atmosphere. But theoretically, you could recapture that heat and use like helium gas or something to turn a turbine and actually run production of even more electricity. You just put a couple solar

electricity. You just put a couple solar panels out. I did the math on this. It's

panels out. I did the math on this. It's

like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a 4 km mass driver to ship material back to the earth every 10 to 15 minutes. One ton of material every 10 to 15 minutes

on the sled you described earlier that Elon's been talking about as well. Yeah.

So you could think about having autonomous mining vehicles deployed on the moon processing the ore and then sending completely processed material back. And then for a heat shield for

back. And then for a heat shield for re-entry to the earth you just use moon rock. You only need about 15 cm of moon

rock. You only need about 15 cm of moon rock at the front of the package and then that'll burn up when it re-enters the atmosphere and the package, you know, kind of parachutes down and lands where you want it to land in your

industrial shipyard or whatever. So

there's just like, you know, I think we'll we'll continue to kind of iterate on this. I'm speculating in a bunch of

on this. I'm speculating in a bunch of different ways.

The beginning the beginning of the beginning gosh I mean can you imagine having a moon base in America going like like Yeah. Well, imagine

Jacob like permanently present on the moon is just and factories on the moon is just wild to consider.

Can you guys just imagine like the middle or the early 19th century like the late 1700s, early 1800s in America and there's like all this land out on the west and like whatever people were

contemplating in that moment about what they were going to go do with that land on the west and they started to travel west their minds would have been blown to see what happened 100 years later or now 150 years later. You know, like it's

just that's the moment that we're at right now. And the railroads are being

right now. And the railroads are being built to get us to this next great frontier. They're being laid out before

frontier. They're being laid out before us. And the opportunity is really

us. And the opportunity is really limited only by our imagination. And

before we would have never been able to tackle these great frontiers, but this magical new technology came about called robots. And these robots are are going

robots. And these robots are are going to allow us to actually make use of these frontiers and explore them and develop them. And that's why this is

develop them. And that's why this is such an incredible moment where this intersection of autonomy and robotics and space traversal kind of drive forward humanity into this new era. And

it's again, this is not a zero sum game.

This is expanding humanity's potential, expanding production, which is so different than the way the socialists on Earth are talking about it where everyone's fighting against progress because they think that progress is some

people taking things from other people.

And the truth is, it's about everyone building stuff that's new and everyone benefiting from this.

I'm gonna open a hotel casino in the space.

Go. That'd be so serious.

Serious.

Absolutely.

You think it's funny, but I am.

I would love that.

Yeah. And then no rake. No rake. No

gravity. No rake. No gravity. Bob,

no tax on tips or poker winnings. I love

it. Whoever implements the red light district in space is going to become a trillionaire.

Oh, wow. That's Yeah, with the robotics and the uh pleasure droids, replicants.

Oh, man. It could get crazy. All right.

Well, let's just hope you're we're not the Donner party on the way there. Um

2026, don't worry. You'll be you'll be safely

don't worry. You'll be you'll be safely on the ground shing syndicates. You'll be fine. I

shing syndicates. You'll be fine. I

I'll tell you something. Uh thank you.

Shout out the syndicate.com apply to join me in great companies.

Do you listen? I'm still You guys might be retiring, but I'm in the game. I'm in

the arena trying things.

I'm selling I'm selling enterprise software every day. That's what

I mean. He literally Truman said, "Hey, Jake, can we wrap this up real quick cuz I got to get on a sales call. I got a discovery call."

discovery call." Listen, I like the fact that we're all working. We're working into our 50s. I

working. We're working into our 50s. I

love it. Hey, 2026 could be an alltime record for IPOs. Looks like it will be Anthropic, OpenAI, Data Bricks. I mean these are all

nine and possibly 10 figure IPOs in terms of the valuations. Long tale of other companies uh Stripe, Cerebrus, Canva,

Discord, lots of people waiting. Here's

your Poly Market. SpaceX 94% obviously that looks like it's uh we just talked about that for 20 minutes. Anthropic 41%

and people were saying 70% in February, OpenAI 38%, data bricks 32%.

People are wondering what could um derail this. Obviously we we we have a

derail this. Obviously we we we have a very pro business group of people in Washington DC, but you have potentially this uh Iran war and we'll talk about that later in the program could

potentially push us back if god forbid it was to spiral or there was a recession. Uh maybe the Democrats

recession. Uh maybe the Democrats you know, taking control of Congress, Senate, etc. What are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential IPOs? We're

talking about trillions of dollars of companies, Chimath. And if that does

companies, Chimath. And if that does happen, let's start talking second and third order impact of of that kind of distribution chain that could happen for LPS and then just also all these

employees. Uh, you know, and then a

employees. Uh, you know, and then a currency for these companies. We go from a mag 7 to a MAG 17. It looks like I think that we have a bit of a risk problem. And I think this is why it

problem. And I think this is why it makes so much sense for Elon to get out first.

If you think about appetite as equivalent to like a person at a Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come in and you see all of this stuff, it's so plentiful. Your eyes are bigger than

so plentiful. Your eyes are bigger than your stomach. And I think in a moment

your stomach. And I think in a moment like that, you want to be the one that is consumed first. M

and I think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space and if you use that fills up yeah and if you use that analogy I think the

reason why people's plates will get full are probably twofold and maybe three-fold the first and most important thing is

there's enough tactical event risk that people generally want to be risk off and have more margin of safety.

I think the Iran thing is kind of in there, but I think the big tactical event risk is that we have a lot of these really important financial moments

tied to this concept of AGI, ASI, I don't know if you saw the OpenAI announcement on their final terms, but you know, a huge slug of Amazon's

capital is tied to a 2028 IPO or a moment that calls for this. Then there

was a bunch of leaked text messages or whatever that said that there's a version of some AGI running inside of anthropic. Then there was the fact that,

anthropic. Then there was the fact that, you know, the leak of claude code basically demonstrated that they had feature flagged away a bunch of improvements. So if you stack up all

improvements. So if you stack up all these improvements, they're actually much further ahead than the models realized. If you take all of that as a

realized. If you take all of that as a basket, it goes back to what I said last week, which is we have a real pricing problem. If AGI is real, the durability

problem. If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none. If

AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly. History will sort out which

thoroughly. History will sort out which one is right. But both cannot be right.

So in that vein, I actually think Jal, I don't think we're going to have like these quote unquote blockbuster stream of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX

of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out. They're going to do great and then maybe the next one does good to great, then the next one will do good

and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand. And

if you think about it, where is it going to come from? Is it going to come from the sidelines? I don't know. I think

the sidelines? I don't know. I think

it's more of a reallocation exercise.

But if you look at the S&P, well, most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected, what the industry calls halo, right?

High asset, low obsolescence kind of businesses. Those things trade for zero

businesses. Those things trade for zero today Jason.

You could buy hundreds of millions of dollars of year of cash flow for two to five times right now in the stock market. And so why are you gonna go way

market. And so why are you gonna go way out on the risk curve and buy something at 200 times revs, let alone earnings?

Yeah. The the

So I don't know. I'm I'm more in the camp of I think it's good to be first. It's

pretty decent to be second, but if I were you, I would get the heck out and get public and get your money and fortify your balance sheet ASAP because I think the risk builds the further down

the IPO chain you're in. Yeah. There's

going to be a competition for investor dollars, whether it's retail or it's institutional or sovereign wealth funds.

They're going to have a lot of choices here. Do you want to be in Nvidia? Do

here. Do you want to be in Nvidia? Do

you want to be in SpaceX? Maybe you have to rotate out of Amazon or Google or Disney in order to take on those opportunities. And that's going to be a

opportunities. And that's going to be a great competition. probably we could see

great competition. probably we could see a lot of these IPOs Freedberg trade below their IPO price in the year or two after they come out and get repriced.

Yeah, like we've seen before. I think

the market's going to need to find a price. Remember, the share owners in a

price. Remember, the share owners in a lot of these companies have held on to these shares for a long period of time and the valuations are extraordinary. I

mean, hundreds of billions of dollars in market value coming to market liquid for the first time. Some of these investors dep regardless of whatever their entry price was are going to be looking for

liquidity. So there's only so much

liquidity. So there's only so much capital to absorb those shares on the buy side. Meaning if the buyers and the

buy side. Meaning if the buyers and the bid is not there to fulfill all of the selling then you're going to see the share price decline and the market's going to find a price. And so I I think

this idea that like an IPO is, you know, just a step in driving the price or value of a company up is a pretty false sense. And I think we'll realize it's

sense. And I think we'll realize it's pretty false as some of these IPOs take place because there is so much pent-up selling demand. There is so much value

selling demand. There is so much value that's being created. There's going to be so much selling pressure and then there's going to be very little buying activity on some of these because anyone

that could have bought at scale on the buy side postpublic were already in a lot of these companies pre-public as private companies and so I don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's expecting are going to show up. They're

probably thinking hey it's going to be retail retail. Yeah. I mean it's like

retail retail. Yeah. I mean it's like yeah but how much money does retail have left? I mean you if you look at retail

left? I mean you if you look at retail investors they have a certain amount of powder and it's probably deployed. It's

not like they have unlimited places to look for that. And you know, there's some evidence of this. Bloomberg ran an article on Wednesday. We tape on Thursday, folks. And you get to listen

Thursday, folks. And you get to listen to the pot on Fridays. Open AAI is falling out of favor with secondary buyers. According to a report, OpenAI

buyers. According to a report, OpenAI investors can't find buyers at the new $850 billion valuation that Shimoth referenced earlier, investors Bloomberg

spoke to are looking to sell $600 million worth of shares. people are

looking for liquidity and said they were institutional investors. Anthropic

institutional investors. Anthropic currently valued at 300 billion is seeing major secondary bids at a $600 billion valuation. So I think Chimoth

billion valuation. So I think Chimoth what this shows us is you're correct.

They're you know OpenAI and Anthropic are the two next cards. That's your turn in river folks. If SpaceX is the flop and maybe they're massively overvalued right now. Maybe they're three four 500

right now. Maybe they're three four 500 million billion dollar companies not trillion dollar companies. And if you look at the amount of revenue 24 billion

for uh open AI at 852 billion that's 35 times price to sales ratio and that is a absurd price to sales ratio depending on if the growth keeps happening and as you

referenced chimoth what if we are at artificial general intelligence AGI and the moes on these things is dimminimous or or there is no moat anthropic just

got hacked all their secrets are out Somebody transmuted the code into another language, posted it on GitHub, can't be stopped. I don't know if you saw that story, Freeberg, but this is

kind of mind-blowing. Somebody took the anthropic code, I don't know what it was written in, and then basically just put it into another language, reposted it.

If Anthropic comes and says, "Hey, you can't do that." Well, that negates their argument, Chimamoth, that they're allowed to train on other people's data and then spit out a different output. So

this is a very weird moment in time, right?

It is. I think you're you're bringing up a bunch of different points, so let me just sort them out in the order that I think is important.

Is there a market for open AI at 800 billion? Yes, and there should be. When

billion? Yes, and there should be. When

I read that press release, my mind was blown. This is like I've never seen a

blown. This is like I've never seen a business like this. And I'd say the same thing of Anthropic.

What an incredible thing that both of these two companies have been able to create. Nobody in the history of the

create. Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale. Okay, it's

unbelievable. These are trillion dollar companies. They both are. And they both

companies. They both are. And they both deserve to be. How profitable they are, I don't know. What their terminal valuation is, I don't know. What will

people pay for at IPO? I don't know. But

Nick, I just shared something with you.

These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible. And the reason is every single company that comes after it, all those companies that you just named, Jason, are not nearly as

important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do. And

where will it come from? The specific

answer to your question when you look at this chart is the tech sector PE is going to shrink faster in my opinion than the non- tech PE. And the reason is

because as these companies come out the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, all three are baking an AI

technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector. It will

eliminate and it will cannibalize and it will erode most of the moes that support this differential trading. So if I were a

differential trading. So if I were a betting man, my first bet is as those three companies come out, these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non- tech PE.

Okay, that's the first step that has to happen. So the rate of change of of the

happen. So the rate of change of of the multiple erosion will basically say to the world, hey, these tech companies are I don't know, I'll buy the first five or six years of this story, but I'm not

buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are going to build something. So that's where the money

something. So that's where the money comes from. That's why I think after

comes from. That's why I think after SpaceX, these two guys need to get their act together, file quickly, get out and just get the money, fortify their balance sheets, and be in a position.

Everything that happens after that is a total coin toss because once these three companies are public, I think the blue line will converge to the orange line and it's going to be nasty.

Yeah. Freeberg, just looking at this, do you believe that secondary market is a canary in the coal mine here with Open AI? Because if we we've and we've gone

AI? Because if we we've and we've gone through this year after year here. These

are exceptional businesses. They've

grown incredible. Customers love their products, but the burn is brutal. The

circular financing problem is still out there. Like what's reality here? The and

there. Like what's reality here? The and

that's going to all come out when these S1s get filed and they're publicly traded companies and they have quarterly earnings reports. Market share for these

earnings reports. Market share for these could be flipping. Anthropic and and Gemini, other players coming into the market.

What are your thoughts here on uh anthropic and open AI post the SpaceX IPO?

Like I said, there's only so much capital in the world. So, I do think one of the things that's probably being underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch that's ahead for

capital intensive technology businesses given the conflict in the Middle East. I

don't think that Qatar and certain Saudi offices and certain offices in UAE and Oman are as eager as they were or you

know have been to provide large slugs of capital to support these initiatives and remember that capital moves its way through the markets whether it's through JP Morgan and a loan to Soft Bank which

then gets paid to open AAI at the end of the day there has to be unencumbered debtfree capital that's being provided to these systems. from somewhere in the world. And if you trace all of it back, like a large chunk

of it has historically in the last couple of years come from Middle East sovereigns and family offices. And I

think that those are likely going to tighten up in the near term. That being

the case, there's probably less demand.

I do think that there's a lot of secondary demand coming from family offices in Europe and Singapore, places like that that that generally have not had great access or early stage access

to private companies. But at some point, there's only so much demand there. So I

don't know like how far this is going to go or when this capital crunch that's going to emerge. I think from the Middle East I don't think we've really felt the shock wave yet on what's happening because remember a lot of these Middle East capital commitments were made in

the last cycle as LP commitments or whatever. And you know if they stop if

whatever. And you know if they stop if they downscale LP commitments or they stop doing primary and secondary transactions you know it takes a little bit of time before the market feels that

and then it's like oh the reliable goto are gone and a lot of the big funds the the mega funds that are out there totally that have Middle East LPS are gone and suddenly everyone's going to be like

whoa and the shock wave will hit. So

let's see it is a risk for the United States because China I don't think is going to be as challenged. We're so

dependent on Middle East capital. It may

be that China has an a capital advantage actually going into this next phase.

I mean, and we talked about forcing your come into play here if this Iran thing spirals, god forbid, out of control or gets worse. People could say, you know what, we're going to downscale our

commitments and hey, there's a war, so we don't have to fund. I

think the markets I think the markets have shaked that off, Jason. I don't

think that they they view this Iran thing as a big thing. I think the big event risk in the market is is AI real or not real? And if it's real, what are all of these companies worth? That is

the big sort of damices over the stock market.

Yeah. All right. Well, that's a good segue, I think, into talking uh a bit about Iran. We took the week off from it

about Iran. We took the week off from it last week and we're going to catch up.

By the way, not because we just to be clear, not because we intended to, which all the comments railed us on, but we literally Jason did a terrible job moderating. It was on the freaking

moderating. It was on the freaking docket. We were supposed to talk about

docket. We were supposed to talk about it. We didn't get to it. He dialed it in

it. We didn't get to it. He dialed it in and we went right in.

He dialed it in. It's clearly my fault.

Um, he DMV it. He, you know, it's like I'm just protecting Trump. I'm out here getting cover for Trump's mistakes.

Yeah.

Everybody knows I'm in the pocket of President Trump.

Take a ticket. Take a ticket. Oh, you

have an issue. Okay. Well, you're issue number 17.

Trump DM'd me and said, "Can you please take this off the docket?" I was like, "You got to bust."

And then you're like, "Oh, sorry. Office

is closed. Come back tomorrow. Today is

day 34 of the Iran War slmilitary operation. Trump addressed the nation

operation. Trump addressed the nation Wednesday night for a brisk 18 minutes.

Here's a 40 secondond clip.

We're now totally independent of the Middle East. And yet, we are there to

Middle East. And yet, we are there to help. We don't have to be there. We

help. We don't have to be there. We

don't need their oil. We don't need anything they have, but we're there to help our allies. For years, everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. But in the end, those are just

weapons. But in the end, those are just words if you're not willing to take action when the time comes. Our

objectives are very simple and clear. We

are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders.

And tonight, I'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion.

All right, the costs here are mounting.

Uh war is a very serious business. 13

American service members have tragically died. Over 200 have been injured. On the

died. Over 200 have been injured. On the

other side of the ledger, 3,500 Iranians have died, including 1,600 civilians and over 200 children. 1,200 people in Lebanon have died from Israeli strikes.

And we now have 50,000 troops deployed to the Middle East. Chances of a ground invasion are increasing. War has cost

$70 billion so far. That's assuming $2 billion a day, which there seems to be consensus on via the Department of War.

Pentagon has asked Congress for another $200 billion.

To put that in context, the war in Ukraine was $113 billion in the first year. This could quickly exceed it when

year. This could quickly exceed it when we hit 50 days. This isn't cheap. There

are lots of costs. Here's uh your poly market on a ceasefire. 25% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April, 47 chance by the end of May. The sharps are thinking this could wrap up, but ground

invasion, which would be just really impactful. I think 63% chance by the end

impactful. I think 63% chance by the end of April, 71 chance by the end of December. We're going to get into the

December. We're going to get into the second order effects, but what do you think, Chimamoth? Uh, this obviously is

think, Chimamoth? Uh, this obviously is super unpopular war.

I think two things. And the president kind of alluded to one that I think is very important, which is if you are not energy independent, you are at risk. And

I don't know how many more examples now that world leaders need to be shown to get their acts together. So if the Ukraine Russian conflict didn't show Europe, then this should show not just

Europe, but the rest of the world. You

need to be in control of your own energy infrastructure and energy independence because stuff happens in the world and you're not always in control or can shape how that stuff

can indirectly or directly affect you.

The United States has energy independence. It's an incredible

independence. It's an incredible situation. What was interesting to me is

situation. What was interesting to me is if you look at Europe, you know, they gutted a couple of their energy markets and they essentially seated control to a

combination of very expensive imports and China. They did that in markets like

and China. They did that in markets like nuclear where they just went out of it.

They did that in things like Nack Gas where again we can debate but where where did Nordstream 2 go? We don't

know. And they did that in things like solar where they just gutted all of the credits. But what's interesting is

credits. But what's interesting is they're starting to turn that around. I

think Italy just reintroduced effectively what's called investment tax credits. Spain just did as well. Germany

credits. Spain just did as well. Germany

is restarting nuclear. So if you just look at the the last few months, just that change is incredibly important

because our largest ally Europe should be fundamentally energyindependent so that they preserve complete and total optionality like we do in how we respond

to these situations.

That I think is a is a critical thing that is a positive outcome of what's happening. And then the second Jason,

happening. And then the second Jason, which I think is a huge question mark and it builds on what Freeberg said before, the Middle Eastern states, specifically the UAE and Saudi, Qatar,

Kuwait, they are our most important financing and banking partner in the future.

And I think we need to see a conclusive end to this war because they need to be in a position to monetize these critical assets. Because at the same time, if you

assets. Because at the same time, if you see these big pools of demand start to become energy independent by either accelerating nuclear, but I again that's just problematic and slow, but

frankly they're just going to ramp up solar. That's the only way that you can

solar. That's the only way that you can dispatch energy quickly. I think what that does is it decreases hydrocarbon demand over the long run. That then

decreases the monetization capacity for these countries. So if you put these two

these countries. So if you put these two things together, all of these folks in the region want safety, security, and they need a quick end to this thing now.

Okay.

And I think that they're more incentivized to put boots on the ground, Jason, than America is. That's the point I was trying to make. Freeberg, let's

talk a little bit about fertilizer.

You had brought up when we had the start of the Ukraine war. Hey, this is the bread basket. We could have a massive

bread basket. We could have a massive famine. Thankfully, that was avoided.

famine. Thankfully, that was avoided.

There were carveouts for getting wheat and and other crops out of Ukraine, but here we are again with a significant

amount of fertilizer comes out of that region and it's not flowing right now.

Do you have concerns this time around that we could see something similar?

Fertilizer is made up of three elements.

There's different fertilizers. The one

element is N for nitrogen, P for phosphorus, and K for potassium. Ukraine

is the largest producer of the K, the potassium, the pot ash, but the N in fertilizer is nitrogen. And

that is about 60% of what goes into the ground. That's 60 to 65% of global

ground. That's 60 to 65% of global fertilizer is the nitrogen. That's what

really drives agricultural productivity.

And we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow crops everywhere on Earth that we're growing crops to feed people at scale.

That nitrogen is primarily made where natural gas is produced and processed.

And the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the production process. They get the the

production process. They get the the carbon, the hydrogen, the oxygen, and then they compress, remember 70% of our atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas.

So they compress the nitrogen in the air to 200 times atmospheric pressure, run it over a electrical current with a metal catalyst, and you break apart the N2. you have just single nitrogen atoms

N2. you have just single nitrogen atoms and then you combine it back and you end up getting ammonia out of the other end.

That's why nitrogen fertilizers are produced where natural gas is processed.

So the Middle East obviously is a massive producer particularly in Qatar of natural gas and that's why so much of the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made in the Middle East. In fact, about 35%

of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the straight of Hormuz, and it is then shipped to countries around the world that farm and that need it to grow their crops. The swing producer in the

their crops. The swing producer in the world is China. China historically makes about 15% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer. And when the war started a

fertilizer. And when the war started a few days after it began, China shut down exports of their nitrogen fertilizer.

And so they basically choked out the rest of the world. And so when the straight of Hormuz shut the nitrogen stopped flowing here you can see the price spike that happened. So as the the

war began this is ura. URA is the solid form of nitrogen fertilizer. So URA was trading at about 350 bucks a ton before the the conflict kind of took off and it

continues to spike up. It reached over $700 a ton in the last two days. And

this is really really really impactful.

It's not just like oh the price is double. Number one, there's a supply

double. Number one, there's a supply deficiency. So farmers in places like

deficiency. So farmers in places like Africa and South Asia are not getting the ura that they need to farm. That is

going to have a massive follow-on problem. And in markets where they have

problem. And in markets where they have access because the price has spiked like in the United States, our biggest crop is corn. You need about 200 pounds of

is corn. You need about 200 pounds of that ura per acre for corn. And that

cost basically makes you unprofitable.

There is no way you can make a profitable crop of corn. The other thing that China did at the same time is they stopped buying corn. So corn prices would normally spike up and corn prices have remained low while the input prices

have spiked for American farmers. So

American farmers are in a real pickle.

Fortunately for this spring planting, which is happening right now, about twothirds of American farmers had already secured their fertilizer before the this began, but a third did not and

they're switching crops typically to soybeans. But we have a fall planting

soybeans. But we have a fall planting coming up in a couple of months here and the choke points on production is going to keep prices very high. In the United States, we make a lot of our own ammonia

at our natural gas facilities in places like Oklahoma and Texas and Wyoming and other places and then it ships directly to the farms. But the cost is so high because of the global market that it's going to become very hard for farmers to

make a profit. And around the world there are many farmers, millions and millions of farmers that can't access this fertilizer now. So the choke point in the straight of Hormuz is turning out to be a real critical global food supply

crisis yet again similar to Ukraine. And

remember there was about 400 million people following the Ukraine war globally that we saw enter into a state of malnourishment. This means more than

of malnourishment. This means more than one year of,200 calories or less per day for a year. 400 million people after Ukraine. So coming out of this crisis it

Ukraine. So coming out of this crisis it could be even more severe given the criticality of nitrogen based fertilizers and the shutdown of the straight. Let me make two more points on

straight. Let me make two more points on this. You would think, okay, we'll make

this. You would think, okay, we'll make more nitrogen fertilizer. The facilities

take at least three to five years to fix when they break, which is what just happened in Qatar. That facility got damaged, the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer. So that is the largest producer of ura in the world.

That's now going to be incapacitated for 3 to 5 years. And if you want to build a new facility, takes about 7 years. All

the facilities around the world that make ura and ammonia these nitrogen fertilizers typically run 24/7 365 at full capacity. There is no downtime

full capacity. There is no downtime where you can just turn on excess production in the world. So you know the world is very delicate in its balance of inputs and food production outputs. The

whole world has like less than 30 days of food of calories stored up. So as

these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate there's shock waves that start to get felt around the world.

So, it's a pretty serious crisis ahead and it'll take a few months before it'll be fully realized. In the meantime, US farmers are getting their asses handed to them. They can't make money and China

to them. They can't make money and China is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage over America and taking advantage of the situation by shutting down exports of their fertilizer and at the same time not

buying American production of corn. We

probably need Freedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like we did with pharmaceuticals, PPE, all these other things. Yeah, we should have some sort of stockpile of fertilizer.

Kimat's point is absolutely correct.

Natural gas reservoirs exist around the world and we've been loathed to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change carbon risks and issues.

But I think what we're realizing is that those are luxury beliefs to an extent.

You can only say let's not exploit carbon resources until you hit a shock wave like this and then people are like wait a second we really do need to have these systems up and running and we need to have excess capacity and local

capacity in the system because single points of failure for the whole world's food supply is not going to cut it anymore particularly as the world is becoming more fragmented and multipolar and there's less US policing of the

world that's going to happen and so on.

It's going to be very critical that everyone starts to think about doubling down not just on energy production but some of these other critical inputs like fertilizer and another output just as a quick side story on that gas production

is when you pull that gas out of the ground that's the primary place we find helium and helium we're all waking up to the fact you know we never really think about helium we think about kids balloons at birthday parties

but helium goes into MRI machines helium goes into semiconductor manufacturing helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis with a lot applications around the world. Helium is

a critical input to medical equipment, to manufacturing equipment, and all of a sudden, a third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar is not making it out. And so, we're now going to have a

out. And so, we're now going to have a helium supply shock that's going to affect the world. So, we're starting to wake up to the fact that perhaps these nat gas fields that we've allowed to kind of turn a blind eye and say, "Let

one country exploit them and let them make all the nat gas." The US is actively developing. You know, I went

actively developing. You know, I went down and visited that Chenny air facility in Louisiana with Doug Bergam a couple months ago, which was an amazing site to see where we do all the LG

exporting, but the US has extraordinary nat gas reserves. So do many other places in the world that have failed to take advantage of developing them. And I

think we're realizing the criticality of doing so at this moment.

Looking at this, I think we'll have Trump pivot extremely soon. I've brought

this chart up now. This will be the fourth time.

Is that your prediction, Jal? think he's

going to wrap this up? I mean,

he's 100% going to wrap this up and I and and I can show why. I mean, this just basically look at the history of this. You guys remember I brought up

this. You guys remember I brought up this chart with Trump's net approval rating and you you look at how this has changed over the three times I brought

it up. First time in June last year,

it up. First time in June last year, then October. Uh, and again, I'm going

then October. Uh, and again, I'm going to bring it up here.

the stuff with ICE and, you know, the Epstein files and just going right down the line of unpopular decisions. Trump's

net approval rating now has just plummeted to -17. This is the least popular he's ever been. And he's had to pivot here. Pam Bondi at the time we are

pivot here. Pam Bondi at the time we are uh recording this as I predicted on a previous episode that Christine Gnome and Pam Bondi would be

fired uh or in I guess Trump's terms he likes to uh get them a new job and give them a window seat. This is absolutely going to result in a quick pivot. Who

knows what the downstream effects are but the inflation three handle is coming back. According to Poly Market, gas is

back. According to Poly Market, gas is over $4 a gallon. And then, you know, it's easy to mock like we did earlier these like no kings protests, but 8 million people came out for that. That's

a large number. And if you look at the poly market for what's going to happen in the midterms, 51% chance now that the Dems take the Senate, 86% that they take the House. And you know what you're

the House. And you know what you're going to take from that is wait, sorry, Poly Market is now showing the Democrats winning both houses.

Yeah, pull it up, Nick. significant

chance of that. And you know when this happens, how much money is being bet on that? Let's just see.

that? Let's just see.

51% they take the Senate, 86% they take the House, and four and a half million $4.5 million on this.

Oh gosh.

Yeah.

I tend to I tend to filter how seriously I take Poly Market just based on the total quantum, but this is a big number.

Yeah. And and I you know, listen, I this is not me trying to dunk on Trump and my personal beliefs. I think when you lose

personal beliefs. I think when you lose Tucker, when you lose Megan Kelly, when you lose Joe Rogan, you know, and people are looking at who Trump surrounded him with, there's really just two groups.

You have these super highly qualified people Bessant Lutnik obviously David Saxs. You got you got really

David Saxs. You got you got really highly qualified people, JD, you know, who who I think the world of. I think

these people are great. But then he put some people in positions that I think weren't up to the task. Pam Bondi,

Christie, I'll put Steven Miller and Cash in that as well. It's my personal belief in that case. And those people have not served him well. And they need to get this presidency back on track because what's going to happen is we're

going to have two more years of impeachments and investigations and the whole thing's going to be derided. And

and we really need to start thinking about what who's making these decisions.

Who who made this decision to go into Iran and why? who made these decisions to have ICE go into Minnesota and why?

And I think a lot of it goes back to Steven Miller. I got mocked a bit here

Steven Miller. I got mocked a bit here on the pod for like blaming him, but you can correlate Steven Miller, Christy Gnome, Cash Patel, and Pam Bondi with

all of the downside of this presidency and the plummeting ratings. Trump's

going to need to clear house. He's

cleared out two or four. I predict he'll clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around because listen, this is going to be socialism now and AOC is

going to win. This is going to cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of Iran and do it soon. Just my

handicapping of the situation. Uh

Hegath, I'm not so sure. I'm not sure if I uh you know what I think of him yet, but you know, we don't have information on why Trump did this. That's going to be the next shoe to drop on why why he did it. Freeberg, I think,

you know, this is the point I made the second this war happened or military operation. I mean, let's let's call it

operation. I mean, let's let's call it what it is. This is a war. When you kill the top hundred people, it's a war. I

said, I don't have the information of why he did this. Like, he might have information, Freeberg, that we don't have that made this an absolute must for us to do, but we haven't revealed that information. He hasn't explained it well

information. He hasn't explained it well to the American people. I think that's why the ratings are, you know, and I don't want to make the ratings like a TV ratings. his

popularity is getting crushed here. The

way this was explained to Americans, and again, I'm not inserting my position here. I'm just talking about the

here. I'm just talking about the disconnect right now, is that Operation Midnight Hammer was supposed to uh have just decimated this. So, why did we do this again? And we don't have the

this again? And we don't have the information. This is why I try to stay

information. This is why I try to stay humble in this and say like, what information does Trump have of that we don't have? Some people seem to think

don't have? Some people seem to think Chamath this was overconfidence.

There's obviously this debate. Did we

get baited into this by Israel and get pushed into it and is he a Manurion candidate etc. I that's above my pay grade too. I I don't have any

grade too. I I don't have any information on that. I'm not in the CIA.

It's hard to be a an armchair critic on this stuff in both senses. Like I think it's hard to say, hey, this guy got talked into doing this. Israel

manipulated him into it. You know,

sorry. It's easy to say that. It's also

easy to say, "Hey, we should go get rid of the country that's made all the nuclear weapons." Both of those are easy

nuclear weapons." Both of those are easy to say without all of the texture of the relationships and the details and what really went on. None of us know is the truth.

That's literally the point, you know, I've been trying to make how do the same thing with Venezuela. Like, how do we know? We don't have any intelligence to

know? We don't have any intelligence to we're not in the CIA. We don't have any of these insights that MSAD or the Israeli intelligence services have. How

do we know how this was going to go down? And you know, that's all going to

down? And you know, that's all going to come out, I think, when this all gets investigated. Yeah.

investigated. Yeah.

I think Trump is and has been the most consistent anti-war president of modern history.

Yes.

And I think that it's fair to say that he has and has had and has demonstrated enormous restraint and has the highest bar thus far of folks for actually

getting into conflict. So I do think that what Freeberg says is very important. There's just so much we don't

important. There's just so much we don't know and I think that he doesn't want to stain his legacy with a typical American,

you know, war.

Yeah.

He doesn't want that. I don't think he doesn't need to be anywhere near that.

So there is obviously stuff that we don't know. I still think that there's

don't know. I still think that there's a short-term problem which is not just the threat that Iran poses to Israel, but there's a threat that Iran poses to the rest of the Middle Eastern

community.

That neighborhood is a complicated place. There was an interview that NBS

place. There was an interview that NBS did on Saudi television. Nick, maybe

maybe you can find it. It's in Arabic, but there's a good version of it that I saw with subtitles.

And if you hear the MBS's telling of what the Iranian threat is, it's not dissimilar to how the Israelis would characterize the threat. And so I think

it's important to understand that unpredictable actors should not be given an opportunity to have a cataclysmic weapon that can just

completely destroy the earth as we know it. That just doesn't make sense. And I

it. That just doesn't make sense. And I

think if you can intervene to prevent that, we're now aware of the damages of what this can do to enough of a degree where there should be enough of nuclear disarmament from here on out.

The six, seven, eight, nine countries that have it. Okay, there's all kinds of reasons why maybe we could have remade those decisions over the intervening 70 years.

Maybe there's some that we never should have let have it. The Pakistan India thing is a good example of one. But we

are where we are and I think we can all agree no more country should incrementally get access to this thing.

Absolutely not. And this regime specifically believes that anybody who is not part of this specific religion needs to die and the whole

Islam needs to be reunited in order to take on anybody who's not part of a version of radical Islam. like it's a it's a if this is a religious lunacy in

that country. I think everybody else

that country. I think everybody else should be murdered if they don't convert.

I think it's important to say that the overwhelming majority of Sunnis and the overwhelming majority of Shia are peaceful observant people. There are

fringes in every religion and in specifically this I think the most important thing is to not take your word or anybody else's word. I do think it's important to listen to somebody like NBS

because I think it's the lived experience of you know having to run a country in that neighborhood and what it means and I think what you see is as you as you're articulating many layers of

complexity that again I think that most of us in the west have zero appreciation for all of this goes to in the short term

I think that they forced themselves into a corner I think we can go back and relitigate Why did Obama let him out?

That was a really, really stupid idea.

We probably should have kept our thumb on the scale and had them close to teetering on economic insolveny. That's

the only thing that has kept them in check. They veered wildly away the

check. They veered wildly away the minute we let them out of the disarmament agreements that we had.

But we are where we are. We got to put the genie back in the bottle. And we

cannot look to other countries and tolerate this idea that they also want to build the kinds of weapons that can literally destroy the face of the planet as we know it. It's a non-starter. And

then the second order effect is how do we make sure that folks that are participating in all of this broader seeds of sewing chaos, how do we hem

them in and how do we create a more reasonable world order? And I think that the second order effects, and I've said this before, kind of bring this back to China. And I think a world where it's

China. And I think a world where it's bipolar, where it's the United States and China roughly as the two leading

statesmen of the world, is probably the Nash equilibrium here.

And so I think getting China in a position where they need to do a deal.

And remember I said this, the worst thing that could happen for China was the president delaying the summit. And

here we are. We're now it's delayed for six weeks. It's going to go into midbay.

six weeks. It's going to go into midbay.

If you think the straight of hormuse numbers as it relates to energy prices in Europe or anywhere else are crazy, look at what's happening inside of China

right now.

It is a no bueno situation. And so in May, if we can reestablish a set of operating criteria that keeps normaly in check,

no more of this rapid random expansion everywhere where the Chinese are trying to build bases in near us and you know now we have to have a point of view near them. We don't need any of that.

them. We don't need any of that.

So I think if we can use this as an opportunity to deescalate, I think we should.

Yeah, that's we we seem to have moved from I mean I think this is the question. There's a a doctrine, I don't

question. There's a a doctrine, I don't know if you guys heard this one before, of mowing the lawn, which is the Israelis view of Hezbollah, Hamas, and even Iran, which is just, hey, we have

to take away their progress, the last 30 or 40% of their progress towards nuclear bombs, and we just do that consistently and we contain them. This has tipped over into regime change. And so, I think

that's the wild card that none of us can predict what happens from this point forward. I I don't know how you leave

forward. I I don't know how you leave Iran in this state if they're going to take over the the strait uh and charge everybody a dollar a barrel. Is that

going to be tenable? Are they going to keep blowing stuff up? This is uncharted territory. Um and yeah, and very high

territory. Um and yeah, and very high stakes. President Trump also reiterated

stakes. President Trump also reiterated the US doesn't need Middle East oil and that Europeans should go straight to the strait and just take it. He said that the straight will open naturally because

quote why do we want to be able why are you always focusing on the straits of Hormuz Jason?

Why am I I mean you're focus on the straight because you're always overlooking the gays of Hormuz as an example.

That's true that and the non-binaries of Hormuz they all count.

Well, why is it all about the straits of Hormuz all the time? Listen, it's I don't want to get cancelled here because I'm talking I don't know the pronouns to use for these straits hormuz. But yes,

the straits in Hormude. I don't think you're allowed to be gay in Hormuz. I

think you have to keep that pretty quiet there, don't you? That was the greatest clip ever. If you don't know what we're

clip ever. If you don't know what we're referring to, it's a viral clip of It's incredible of purple-haired people. No, not purple.

This was a young Indian lady.

Uh, and she we all thought the same thing. Indians are so smart. How? What

thing. Indians are so smart. How? What

happened to her? What happened? She's

the They found an Indian who didn't understand the one They found the one dumb Indian.

Yes exactly.

Oh god. It's

They found her.

They found her. This is She's been absolutely I mean, isn't it a little bit homophobic that was so focused on the straits of her moose and not the gays of her moves?

I agree. Yes, for sure.

Why do you think are willing to leave the gays of her moves behind?

I think it's just um history.

Which Ivy League do you think she went to? Brown. 100%. Brown or Columbia?

to? Brown. 100%. Brown or Columbia?

Oh yeah, that's that's a good call. I

would say Colombia. She Yeah, she might have gone to Vasser actually. I think

that would might have been her safety school. That's the best

school. That's the best not Bora not Borat. Um Bruno

impersonation I've heard in a long time.

Saw Freebug. Why are you so gay? Do you

think the shreds of horm are you are you making your potatoes non-binary?

It was like literally Zabuno.

You got 10 minutes. Jamath, you want to do your uh Bitcoin thing or you want to just break? The Bitcoin thing was

just break? The Bitcoin thing was interesting because I think in the last couple of months, what we've started to see is an

increasing amount of research that says that the scheduled eventuality

of a quantum chip, a functional chip, is probably not 25 or 30 years away.

It's probably now in the next five to seven years if I had to guess.

And I think that because that event horizon has moved in in these next 5 to seven years for those that follow Bitcoin and care about it. My only

advice on this topic is that the leaders of the Bitcoin ecosystem need to organize themselves and need to make sure that they have an answer to the question of is this stuff quantum

resistant? Because if the answer is no,

resistant? Because if the answer is no, they are a very visible and obvious honeypot.

Now there is the answer that then a lot of the Bitcoin community gives which is well everything is screwed.

And my only advice is possibly, but if a non-state actor gets a hold of quantum technology that can defeat crypto as we know it today,

SHA 256, you know, ECDS, like the elliptical curve stuff, the run-of-the-mill stuff that we all rely on, a non-state actor's incentive will first

be to drain the obvious honeypotss and then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to sh, all the prices go to zero, and then they have all the money and then they can buy stuff. That would be the sequence of

stuff. That would be the sequence of events if you were a non-state actor.

So, yes, you're right. The banks get hacked. Yes, you're right. All this

hacked. Yes, you're right. All this

other stuff goes kaput.

But I think you first go and you exploit the obvious places. And I think crypto is the most obvious honeypot in a world where you can defeat encryption. Now, in

fairness, the crypto community, this was much, much earlier, had to deal with this. They had to migrate from different

this. They had to migrate from different encryption schemes in the early parts of Bitcoin and they were able to self-organize.

The difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift. You're

talking about all the wallets being rearchitected. You're talking about all

rearchitected. You're talking about all the transactional flows, all the processing nodes. These are complicated

processing nodes. These are complicated things that need to happen. And I would just tell the crypto community, you have 5 to seven years to get your [ __ ] in order.

That's it. Freeberg, quantum computing, just generally speaking, you feel it's going to have a major impact in the short term. Do you think it's actually

short term. Do you think it's actually going to become viable in the midterm?

Where do you think about it? Because

it's always been 10 years out, but it feels like we're making some progress.

Yeah, there's a lot that's changed. I

mean, so the the primary mechanism of modern encryption standards uh relates to factoring primes of an integer.

discovering the prime factors of an integer would give you the ability to theoretically crack encryption. There was an algorithm that

encryption. There was an algorithm that was theorized by a guy named Peter Shore. I think I talked about this on a

Shore. I think I talked about this on a prior episode back in 1994 called Shore's algorithm today. It's kind of the commonly well-known model for how you could do this. And it's a you could watch a YouTube video on it. There's

some YouTube videos that explain it pretty clearly. Takes a bit of time to

pretty clearly. Takes a bit of time to understand it. And then a couple years

understand it. And then a couple years ago, I think in 2023, there was another computer scientist named Oded Regv

from NYU who published another paper that showed a faster different approach to Shor's algorithm. It was an improvement on Shor's algorithm that basically reduced the number of quantum

operations required to factor a large integer significantly. So there's kind

integer significantly. So there's kind of Yeah, we sorry, we went from 28 million of those operations down to 500,000.

Yeah. And so there's this a lot of work going on right now even before we have industrial scale quantum computers. A

lot of work going on in quantum computing theory and building models and algorithms and a lot of this is rooted in in pure mathematics and statistics and whatnot. That work is making

and whatnot. That work is making progress and building better algorithms even before the compute comes online.

And then there's this separate set of things that you can track. But you know the market if you want to trust the market is betting that we are within spitting distance of quantum computers

reaching an industrial scale at this moment. So those two things intersect at

moment. So those two things intersect at some moment in the near term where you have algorithms that are low demand, low latency that can crack modern encryption

standards and then the computing comes online and someone is going to execute.

The the real thing is what do you do about it? There's a whole bunch of

about it? There's a whole bunch of research that's been going on for 20 plus years on quantum algorithms, quantum encryption standards. And so the to Chimat's point, these things exist.

It's just a heavy lift and so there's going to be this heavy lift probably, you know, pretty good business to be made in the next couple of years and uh all of the changes are going to need to happen across all encryption standards

across the whole internet across how we do communications and so on. In a crazy way, Freeberg, crypto is in the same place as all these software socks.

Meaning, if AGI and ASI are real, these software companies are not what we thought they were.

Yeah.

If Quantum is real, a bunch of these crypto projects are not what we thought they were. And so you can't have both,

they were. And so you can't have both, guys. You got to choose.

guys. You got to choose.

Pick one.

Yeah.

All right, everybody. This is Ben.

Oh, hey. We listen. Um, you know, I have an incredible EA executive assistant.

It's really been like, you know, everybody talks about like agents, agents, agents, agents, and this was the pre- agent agent.

You know, my my EAS averaged around 188 to 200k a year and then people right now their heads are exploding in middle America.

Let's tell the truth. I was paying 188 to $200,000 a year. They were wonderful.

Okay.

Right.

And then I Jason was like, "Try this.

Try this thing called Athena." Athena.

Athena. I'm like, "What is it?" So, I called the guys and they're like, "Yeah, we have these really well-trained folks.

They're like geniuses that work in the Philippines. It's 3,000 a month and

Philippines. It's 3,000 a month and we're building all this tooling and so as all these agents get better and all these AIs get better, they'll get the advantage of that. I said, "Okay, I'll give it a try." This is the first time

I've had a male assistant. His name is Lei. Lay's fabulous. He's a math grad,

Lei. Lay's fabulous. He's a math grad, math and computer science in the Philippines.

Okay.

And he's excellent. I love Lei, too. Uh,

somebody just put it in the chat. I love

Le from Nick. Yeah, Nick. Nick, you love Lay coming to NBC this fall.

These guys are incredible. They do

everything for me. It's like the most incredible hack and arbitrage I've ever seen. Then now then I can direct a bonus

seen. Then now then I can direct a bonus delay at the end of the year, which is great because then it allows me to feel like I'm giving him really, you know, good support. He works my hours from the

good support. He works my hours from the Philippines. Have not looked back. Go

Philippines. Have not looked back. Go

Athena.

Yeah, that's great.

I I I use it as well. I was the first investor.

You were the first You were the How many Athenas? You have one or two? I have

Athenas? You have one or two? I have

one. two for a while.

I think I made a second one and uh then that person moved on.

You split it between like work and personal or no?

Yeah, it's work and personal. As an

example, like there's an incredible bakery where I live uh like out in Dripping Springs, uh called Abby Jane Bakery. They don't take orders, but

Bakery. They don't take orders, but every Thursday, uh my Athena assistant calls at 8 a.m., asks them what's on the menu, cuz they change the menu every week.

And then they send me the menu. I order

the bakeries.

And then he calls an Uber crier to pick it up and drop it off cuz they're not on Door Dash or Uber. It's just a stupid example of something that made our lives incredible to have the best bakery in all of Austin in the house every weekend

for the girls and everything. And um

everyday problems. Yeah, everyday problems. Anyway, it's it's a silly example, but I was having to go make that run and I did it every like fourth or fifth week as a treat. Now it's every week. So you just

treat. Now it's every week. So you just look at what you're doing. The other

thing we're doing is they've been able to we we had Americans who were researchers sorting through the inbound applications from founders. We were able to put an

from founders. We were able to put an Athena assistant on that and then define it and then we they're learning how to use OpenClaw. So the Athena OpenClaw

use OpenClaw. So the Athena OpenClaw merger is kind of happening in real time.

Yeah. No, I have I have Lei doing a bunch of advanced tasks that I typically wouldn't give to my EA and then he also deals with sort of just the more practical day-to-day tasks, scheduling, all that stuff. Anyways, it's been it's

been an incredible eye opening thing because it sets a very good example where, you know, you can be cost effective and still get your work done.

Um, and it was really bothering me actually because like the the amount of cost inflation for that role because I don't think I've ever needed an EA. I'll

just be honest, I'm going to put it out there. I think I've always needed an AA

there. I think I've always needed an AA and I would title them differently and sometimes I would call you know I' I mean I've said this before but like you know even like roles like chief of staff they just don't make sense like the

chief of staff should be the second most powerful person in the world because they work for the president of the United States.

Everybody else should not have a chief of staff in my opinion. Okay. It's um it's a major unlock and the problem is we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes and it's just people don't want to take

the EA or the administrative assistant position in America. They just don't.

There's they want to do something higher up the stack, but the people in the Philippines, you know, they do want that job.

Lay is crushing. I love Lei.

R.J. is my guy. And yeah, first Oh, you got a guy, too?

I got a guy, too. And he is also very technical. Uh so anyway, shout out to

technical. Uh so anyway, shout out to Athena.

Shout out to Athena. Thank you, guys.

Thank you. Awesome. Yeah, Freedberg, I know you're making great progress. You

showed me some pictures of potatoes from Ohio. Um, how's that going?

Ohio. Um, how's that going?

Shipping seed this week to farmers all over North America. So, we're getting going.

Are you sending seed to our friend Roger the Dirt Farmer?

He is his son. Yeah, he's

That's so great.

Dirt Roger.

I love him.

Roger the dirt farmer is a phenomenal poker player. He and Keading often play

poker player. He and Keading often play in the game together.

How'd they do? a couple weeks ago they came up and visited me the next day.

Both of those two goofballs ran over the game. It's so frustrating. It's

game. It's so frustrating. It's

frustrating playing with Keing. Roger is

much more of a tag, you know, a tight aggressive player. So, it's no picnic. There's no

player. So, it's no picnic. There's no

free lunch when both of those two guys are in the game. And then on top of that, you know, Helm Youth [ __ ] Robbo, it's like it's not a murder.

It's murderers row.

I got I made a late trip to the valley.

I'm like, "Hey, Chimath. Oh, Jason's in town. I get to play."

town. I get to play."

Chimat's like, "Uh, I got some bad news for you. you're no longer on the list

for you. you're no longer on the list and I filled the game up plus two. So I

squeak into the game. I run up a quick 20 25 dimek skis and then helm youth.

Passive aggressive Helm Youuth who cannot handle the fact that I'm more famous than him now. It's just totally tweaked him that Chimoth and I than you Ray Burke are so much more famous than

him. He's broken his brain. He's like,

him. He's broken his brain. He's like,

"Uh, okay. Uh, car dealer. car dealer.

You're supposed to have a seat and Jay Cal doesn't. And I literally just

Cal doesn't. And I literally just doubled up at that point. Jamal's like,

"Okay, I guess you could book the win, Jay. Cal," because, you know, it's like

Jay. Cal," because, you know, it's like poor taste to double up and then leave.

How much did you win? 40, 50k?

It was only like 25 times. It was, you know, it's like I used my Yeah.

Hey, Chimath, we're here at the end of the show. I just wanted to make sure

the show. I just wanted to make sure people know that the liquidity event that we're hosting, uh, you can go to allin.com/events, has sold out and we've

allin.com/events, has sold out and we've started a wait list. So, this is the quickest we've ever sold out.

I asked Kimber and Lisa to try to find another 100 seats. I think there's like $7.7 trillion of money that want to attend. We can't

get everybody in. So, we're trying to get everybody together. We announced

Bill Aman and Andre Carpathy last week.

Incredible.

We're going to do an Irisone like pitch competition. There's like four whisbang

competition. There's like four whisbang hot fun. Explain what that is for folks who

fun. Explain what that is for folks who don't know. Yeah,

don't know. Yeah, I know a bunch of these guys, but four of them in particular are running super hot right now. Like

taking 50 million, run it up to a billion to three billion. They're just

ripping. And uh they're going to go on stage and they're going to give us their best ideas pitch and the three of us plus I think as many of the guests that can do it, we'll vote and then maybe we can even

publish these ideas so that folks can can try to follow them.

They can vet them, right? It's like a really brave thing to do to get on stage and say, "Hey, I'm making this bet."

Like that's like that was great. I did it four times.

I mean, I just spanked it, but hopefully these guys can do the same thing. But listen, we have a natural

thing. But listen, we have a natural resources pitch. We have something in

resources pitch. We have something in healthcare. We have something in tech.

healthcare. We have something in tech.

We have something in genius.

It's great. It's like all the big categories. We have something in crypto.

categories. We have something in crypto.

So, it's you're going to get every shade of every whippy big alpha market. By the way, you created a

alpha market. By the way, you created a bit of a storm on the interwebs with your towel mention in the uh uh Jensen interview.

I just asked Jensen a question. I'm not

long towel. He'd redirected it to something which is folding at home, which is I think if you don't know it, you should look it up, but it's how you can allocate compute to helping solve health problems. The point is these open source projects or these distributed

compute projects are the future. The

real question is what is the architecture and the incentives? None of

us knows that.

Yeah.

But man, I think it's so important. And

then all these goons went crazy.

Went crazy.

Well, I mean, the reason is because I did place a bet on TA like a couple of weeks ago. I went public with hey, yeah,

weeks ago. I went public with hey, yeah, I've got a small bet here because I think these subnetss are fascinating.

You're not I mean, it's like I might be five or $600,000. A tiny bet.

You're syndicate maxing.

No, I did it myself. I did it myself. I

made a small bet on T because I watched Exactly. What

Exactly. What this [ __ ] is syndicate maxing? I'm

it's not I'm not [ __ ] maxing here, but I am certainly not doing any introspection. I am just doing deals on

introspection. I am just doing deals on great founders and companies.

Andre has been rage tweeting about this guy that he watches a genius who posts these videos about [ __ ] maxing.

Yes, I watched the videos. It's incredible.

This guy, what is the guy's name? I

don't know what the hell.

I don't know. But he goes on his back deck. He's got a Weber grill. Pops out a

deck. He's got a Weber grill. Pops out a cigar and he says, "Listen, it doesn't matter." That may be the most incredible

matter." That may be the most incredible contribution.

That's the most incredible contribution Andre may be making to culture and society in America. Not the browser.

He found this guy. I encourage you, Nick, find the video, post the links.

This guy is incredible because you're overthinking it, folks.

Just enjoy your life and work hard and don't think it through because look what happened to Freeberg. He started

ruminating.

Love you, boys.

Don't ruminate. Just go sell software and go make better potatoes. Freeberg,

no more ruminating and therapy for you.

Freeberg, come on the program anytime.

Mark and [ __ ] Max with us here on the Allin.

Love you boys. Bye now.

We'll let David We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

Love you. Queen of

Besties are gone.

That is my dog taking notice your driveway.

Oh man, my appetiter will meet you.

We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless.

It's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.

Wet your feet. Wet your feet.

Your feet.

That's going to be good. We need to get Mercury's already.

I'm going all in.