Stocks Extend Losses; Oil Surges as War With Iran Enters Fourth Day | Bloomberg Brief 3/3/2026

It's 9 a.m. in New York, 10 a.m.

in london. Good morning.

I'm Vonnie Quinn with your bloomberg briefs.

Let's get you set up for the day. Stock futures and treasuries extending major losses now. Oil and gas surging as the iran war enters its fourth day. No end in sight.

The US and israeli military has continued to bombard Iran's capital as the US sends mixed signals on the timeline for the war.

And we'll speak this half hour with Yahya Lapid, leader of the opposition in Israel. So let's take a look at those markets

Israel. So let's take a look at those markets then, because we are seeing a significant deterioration in futures.

And as you can see, all of the futures across the board are down more than 1%.

In fact, we're at session lows now for the Nasdaq 100.

European stock futures also pointed lower and it was a down session in Asia as well. But just a few minutes ago, the

as well. But just a few minutes ago, the president put out untruths sociale pretty long posts, including the words Wars can be fought forever and very successfully using just these supplies, referring to U.S. supplies, which are better than other countries finest arms. That's not helping sentiment.

Neither is the command from the State Department urging Americans to leave the region, which came out a few hours ago after drone attacks on the US embassy in Saudi Arabia. Let's take a look at Treasuries, because

Saudi Arabia. Let's take a look at Treasuries, because we're seeing the same impetus there. Inflation fears is roiling the Treasury markets and oil is the problem, as you can see.

Oil is surging today. We have Brent crude once again around $80 a barrel and WTI at 7490. In fact, Brent crude has taken out that level now. European gas futures well up another 30%

level now. European gas futures well up another 30% today. All right.

today. All right.

Let's get to some individual movers now for some stocks to watch.

Is a beer Abu Omar? Good morning, Vonnie.

Generally a risk off sentiment across global markets this morning on the back of the tensions in the Middle east. When we look at the picture in the US pre trade session, we're seeing in video down quite a bit 3.4% almost and that is on the back of these the Trump administration essentially considering chip caps to China. So they're trying to limit down these H

200 trips sales to China by 75,000 chip per company.

So this stock is not doing well on that information and possibly due to some of the supply shocks that we might see again as a result of the tensions in the Middle East. Moving on to possibly the one sector

Middle East. Moving on to possibly the one sector that is doing well across the globe, and that is the oil sector.

You just mentioned Brent sitting comfortably below $82 a barrel.

So you're seeing this company, Battalion Oil, which is a small oil company, but doing incredibly well this morning. And that's perhaps a reflection of the wider sector and what the disruptions in the Middle East could lead to when it comes to Brent hitting closer to 100 possibly.

So you're seeing Battalion doing very well on the back of that.

But then finally, MongoDB, this is a software company and it really doesn't matter what happens in the world. Software companies are just not doing well this year. The stock is down on a weak earnings forecast for the year, 27.7% down this morning.

But the software image does not look favorable to investors overall.

Vonnie, back to you. A beer.

Thank you so much, omar. We'll be back later in the hour.

Also coming up in this hour, nadia martin wiggins of small island capital.

I will speak to julie norman of chatham house.

Our top story, the iran war is showing no signs of coming even close to an end.

I'm not going to give away the details of our tactical efforts, but the hardest hits are yet to come from the US military.

The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now.

Let's get to our team coverage now where this university anchor of Bloomberg Horizons, Middle East and Africa in Dubai, Mike US owner of Bloomberg government in Washington and Bloomberg Markets reporter scholar at montgomery coning here in studio. Jomana, the latest from dubai.

It seems like anything that we thought might be leveling off in yesterday's session really isn't. And we're seeing a lot more strikes today. Well, I would say the intensity and

today. Well, I would say the intensity and frequency frequency of the strikes has actually subsided in the last 24 hours.

But but the targets have become a lot more notable.

And we just this morning, we woke up to reports that the US embassy in Saudi Arabia in Riyadh had been hit by drones that were intercepted and caused limited damage. But of course notable that the US

damage. But of course notable that the US embassy is now being targeted, this alongside key energy infrastructure hubs in the region. Yesterday the whole market was roiled by news that the Qatar Energy and LNG facility was also targeted, leading to massive disruptions in energy markets. And earlier in the day we had heard of the refining facility and Aramco also being hit, too.

And so this marks a significant escalation.

And yesterday we heard from President Trump with those comments suggesting that they will do whatever it takes, that at the outset they had anticipated this would take 4 to 5 weeks, it could take longer.

And so the feeling here is that this is not going to be wrapped up in a matter of days. We are likely looking at a protracted

of days. We are likely looking at a protracted period of conflict. And the concern, of course, is double fold that once that that on the one hand, you could continue to see attacks on key infrastructure sites for logistics, for for travel. We spoke about the massive flight

for travel. We spoke about the massive flight disruptions that have taken place in this region as well.

It's estimated that there are over 300,000 people who are stranded.

But then also, it's going to start to take a toll on many of these Gulf economies. And so the hope is that there can be

economies. And so the hope is that there can be some form of de-escalation, but it doesn't seem like that is happening at any point in the next few days. Me Can I can I come to you on that point that Jomana made about the duration of this?

Because Eleanor in Washington, the president just putting out on to social that, you know, wars can be fought forever.

Is he deliberately blurring what kind of timeline we should anticipate for this war? Yeah.

war? Yeah.

I mean, I think the administration has really been trying to keep a lot of their plans under wraps or even still figuring out what exactly their plan is going forward after the initial strikes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been briefing lawmakers and Trump officials will again brief lawmakers on Capitol Hill today. But there's a lot of questions that

Hill today. But there's a lot of questions that members have in terms of what is what are their objectives here?

How long is this going to be? And I think that a lot of lawmakers and potentially even members of the public are getting a lot of whiplash from 20 years ago. But, of course, the administration is

years ago. But, of course, the administration is pledging that won't be the case. Mika, what can we expect from the president today? What's on his schedule?

president today? What's on his schedule?

Yeah, The president has a policy meetings that are mostly closed doors.

He is holding a bilateral lunch as well. So I think that he'll be able to make remarks and we'll get an update on the war this afternoon from the president and most likely. And then Scott in Montgomery County, if I can come to you in studio, we're seeing this amazing train ride.

So obviously the market is taking this a lot more seriously today.

We're seeing futures just Plummer's, but also Treasuries, because inflation has suddenly reared its ugly head and not just in the United States but across the world. Yes, that's exactly it.

world. Yes, that's exactly it.

And I think yesterday markets were calm, too, calmed by the idea that oil prices at around $80 a barrel, it's not as high as you'd have in previous escalations.

Russia-Ukraine being the very notable recent example where oil prices climbed above 00 a barrel. But the key point for markets is that when you have this big delta, this big change in energy prices, there has to be an economic impact. And so particularly for Europe in the U.K., where you have natural gas prices in Europe up more than something like

U.K., where you have natural gas prices in Europe up more than something like 30% and 60% for the U.K., there will be a stagflation area impulse and for markets. That's the worst kind of economic

markets. That's the worst kind of economic environment, because it means that equity sell off.

It means that bonds don't do well because you have central banks that are more hawkish and there aren't a lot of safe havens that protect you.

And we're seeing this in Japan, in Australia, in so many different places.

But if you just look at the United States alone, the Fed often says, look, you have to look past energy prices. That's not a long term persistent problem when it comes to inflation. But that's not always true, is it?

It's not always true. And what matters really is when you have these supply driven shocks. That's what's the demand backdrop like when that happens. Now, right now, the demand dropped off from practically a global growth is quite strong.

And so when you have that supply level adjustment or prices go higher, it can feed more persistently into the economy if demand is strong.

And I think the worry right now from a government bond perspective is what we saw with Russia. Ukraine did create inflationary pressures that concern central banks. What you also saw was that European governments, etc. did more boring as a result because they wanted to subsidize those higher prices for consumers.

And that's also a negative for government bonds.

And so, yes, you know, maybe aren't concerned as much about slight options from an inflation perspective, but certainly now we're demand is the fact that in the US you already have inflation that's quite sticky with capacity around 3%. It should be more concerning.

Isn't it interesting, though, even as everybody is dumping treasuries and obviously government bonds worldwide, the dollar continues to rise.

It's strong once again today. In fact, the dollar index approaching well, it's above 99, as I look. Yeah, I mean, the dollar is the one clear safe haven that you can see from this, because government bonds are under pressure because of the inflation central bank link with other currencies, the yen and the Swiss franc in particular.

They're both energy importers. And so they're going to get a big hit from this. And what we've seen is that the

from this. And what we've seen is that the relationship between the dollar and energy has changed drastically in the last decade or so. In 2019, the US became a net energy exporter from being an energy importer. So that means when you get higher energy prices, there's less of a growth hit the US, even though you still get that inflation profile changing and it means that the dollar can outperform as a safe

haven as well as because of that energy impact.

And it's one of the clear winners there. Skylar, thank you so much.

Always so clear and thank you to our team coverage we had because we were from Washington. Scott Montgomery coning here in the

from Washington. Scott Montgomery coning here in the studio and of course the amount of research in Dubai.

Coming up, an exclusive conversation with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid. This is Bloomberg.

Lapid. This is Bloomberg.

This is Bloomberg briefing Vonnie Quinn in London.

Israel's defense ministry says it's preparing for the potential expansion of fronts. It told defense industry leaders it's

fronts. It told defense industry leaders it's looking to accelerate its defense production rate.

It says Israeli forces continued attacks against Iran and carried out more airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid joins us now.

Mr. Lapid, what is the end game for Israel?

Does it align with the end game for the United States, whatever that might be?

Well, I think we are aligned with our goals to the three goals.

Two of them are operative and one of them is bigger.

The two operative goals is a liberate We have to eliminate and obliterate Iran's ballistic missile program, Iran's nuclear program.

And the third goal is enable the people of Iran a regime change.

I mean, all those courageous young people who took to the streets in January needs a better chance. I remember when the president said help is on the way. So help is there already.

And again, I'm a very small believer in the possibility of a regime change by air strike of external forces. But at least we are enabling the people of Iran the hope or the possibility or the opportunity to take their own destiny into their own hands and change the regime.

Now, after the leaders, the entire leadership has been wiped from the scrap of Earth. Well, so what should we be looking for?

of Earth. Well, so what should we be looking for?

Are you really anticipating protesters to be out on the streets, and if so, when? Well, again, we cannot make the

when? Well, again, we cannot make the decisions for them and we are still waiting.

It's an interesting question whether or not there will be an Iranian Mandela or the Iranian Ghandi or an Iranian Lech Walesa.

Again, we were all filled with admiration to the courage and determination when we saw them on January.

I think the the feeling is still there. I think they understand that the circumstances have changed dramatically. I think that operations like the latest when in compounds of the Revolutionary Guards are being hit in the in the middle of Tehran is signaling them that everybody understands what is

it that they are facing. And now it's up to them.

Iran is going to change. Iran is what happened in Iran is an it is an ancient culture, is an interesting country, is a very educated country that was taken hostage by a terror organization pretending to be a government. So we help them get rid of the terror

government. So we help them get rid of the terror organization. Yes.

organization. Yes.

If you don't have anyone in particular in mind, if you're waiting for someone to emerge, what is the plan and duration that Israel will continue these these strikes? Well, nobody wants to set a timetable

strikes? Well, nobody wants to set a timetable and there's all sorts of external components to to to do this.

I think, again, the first and foremost important thing to us and on this we are in alliance with the United States, is getting rid of the as I was saying, the ballistic missile program and the nuclear program, because these are existential threats to Israel, to the region and to the world.

Think of it this way. If the United States had an opportunity to get rid of bin Laden before 911, would it have done so?

The answer is, of course, yes. So what we are doing now, getting rid of the threat before the threat is operative.

So if that is indeed the goal, are you would you say, behind schedule or in front of schedule or where are you in the operation?

I think right now this operation is an unbelievable success.

The the. And where are you information we had we have we are having wisdom with the Americans.

Of course, it's very different. In June, in the strikes of June, Israel did most of the work and then the United States entered this towards the end.

Here we are in in working with the mightiest military polity.

Power in the history of humanity is the American army.

So this is very different. Okay.

So if I if I can pinpoint you on where we are exactly in the the the operation, Can I ask you, you said nothing could be worse than what we had.

But what do you think of the possibility that the regime stays intact with different leadership? And I wonder what you think the future

different leadership? And I wonder what you think the future might look like then. Well, I think it doesn't get any worse than it did before. I mean, how many was a terrorist?

And the people around the military said good riddance.

I think if the worst case scenario right now is already better, which is a very weakened regime with less possibilities to suppress its own people and B, being a threat. Interestingly enough, the made I mean,

a threat. Interestingly enough, the made I mean, it was so obvious that the made the first mistake in a long, long time where they decided to attack the countries around them Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, because they thought this will make those countries pick up the phone, call Washington and tell them you have to stop the war.

Instead, they. Actually created the regional alliance against Iran. That is going to be very meaningful in

against Iran. That is going to be very meaningful in the future history of the region. Have you been surprised by the extent and type of the Iranian retaliation? So, for example, the Leviathan gas project is now halted and there have been other attempts at infrastructure

damage. Well, there are two versions.

damage. Well, there are two versions.

The first was the attack on Israel. I've been visiting sites that were hit in Israel. This is heartbreaking.

in Israel. This is heartbreaking.

Just yesterday, I was next to the place where three children from the same family were killed. The beaten family.

So it was heartbreaking. But this is not something we didn't see before. And this actually we saw the same things

before. And this actually we saw the same things happen in the same way around the same scale in the attack of June.

The fact that they have attacked infrastructure around in the countries neighboring them is new and different and a terrible mistake because, as I was saying, they have just arranged a coalition against themselves by not reading the map, the political map or the diplomatic map around them the right way. This is an example of what happens when

way. This is an example of what happens when you're all all your control and command systems are failing.

We have to leave it there. Mr.

Duffy But thank you so much for your time today.

Israel Opposition Leader Lapid. Q Then soaring natural gas prices surging Europe's natural gas prices up another 29% right now.

This as the world's largest LNG export plant in Qatar remains halted and the Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed.

Joining us now is Nadia martin, Wigan, director at Zealand Capital.

Nadia, we've seen China come out and urge parties to back down and at least let the energy flow right. How bad does this gas?

What's your base case? Well, our base case is that the straights need to start to operate again.

But how quickly that happens is a question.

And just following up on what you were just asking, you know, were we prepared for these attacks on the other Gulf GCC countries and the market was not?

And that's where I think we have to remember it takes time for the market to react. What is reacted most quickly has been

react. What is reacted most quickly has been the shipping market, and that is both in rising freight rates and also in changes to insurance and also declarations of force majeure.

China, Asia, they are most dependent on the Middle East in terms of LNG flows.

That's more than 80% of where they get their flows from.

So it is very important and globally we do not have inventories in LNG and natural gas the way we do in oil, and that includes also Asia, which has even lower inventories than we do in Europe. So at full inventories, we have around 25% of winter demand in storage. In in Asia, it's around 40%.

Right now we're at much lower storage levels because we're coming off of winter. So it's very important what China is

winter. So it's very important what China is saying. Nadia, you talked about the strait.

saying. Nadia, you talked about the strait.

What, other than oil and gas gets impacted by this particle closure with, you know, container ships basically just with anchor dropped at this point, does dry goods get impacted? What about consumer goods?

Everything that flows through there right now is very dangerous.

But the impact is more outsides towards LNG, LPG, and then finally the tanker market because of what is a more dangerous cargo, right? If you hit an LNG tanker, which is

cargo, right? If you hit an LNG tanker, which is valued at $260 million, 250 to $260 million and LNG vessels, not a tanker, and then you have the cost of the cargo and at the same time the explosion makes it so that your crew cannot be rescued. You then have with LPG again, this is

much more flammable. And then finally you have tankers and tankers. You can normally get the crew back, but

tankers. You can normally get the crew back, but that has a much bigger spill in danger to it then in terms of container ships and so forth.

You have a great statistic in your notes that freights constitutes now 14% of the cost versus the cargo, where normally that's about 2%.

Who can afford this premium, Nadia, Who gets the oil and gas?

Yes. So that refers specifically if you were to take a tanker from the US Gulf Coast and going into this weekend, the cheapest crude in the world was US WTI and Venezuelan.

That was UN sanctions and in particular China.

Since the invasion of Venezuela by the US has not got any Venezuelan crude.

So now that is the cost of flowing all the way to China.

China has around more than one year's worth, almost 400 days worth of emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve in terms of their own oil demand for cover.

But they are the spare refining capacity in the world.

When we are in refinery maintenance season in the US and Europe.

So that is one to watch because this could very much affect China.

But they can of course choose not to send diesel and jet fuel over to Europe at this time and only take care of themselves.

The biggest impact, I think, in terms of danger is India.

India only has 30 million barrels of inventories, which is about 15 days cover. They are an extremely important

cover. They are an extremely important refinery. They are very close in terms of the

refinery. They are very close in terms of the Middle East and they have said they're not going to buy Russian crude, at least the national oil companies. So we may see that they start to take the 60 million barrels of sanctioned crude of Russian that's floating 30 million barrels of Iranian crude. We just had a headline and talked a little time ago out of India saying that it had eight weeks of oil left.

Very briefly, Nadia, we're out of time, but we're in the pretty warm spell at the moment. It's kind of shoulder season.

the moment. It's kind of shoulder season.

Is this good timing, at least? Yes, it is in the sense so long as we don't get a winter spell, then absolutely, it's not the worst time.

But on the flip side, we're at very low storage and we don't have the excess floating storage for LNG that we have tended to have after Russia invaded Ukraine. We didn't have it actually this last

Ukraine. We didn't have it actually this last year or the year before, but that is something the traders typically have right now. We don't have that spare capacity on

right now. We don't have that spare capacity on reserve too, to fill those shorts. And when we look at the prices right now, Asia is pulling LNG towards itself rather than allowing it to be here. So we have the UK where it's trying to pull out of Europe. We're in a tough situation here.

The U.S., of course, as a huge natural gas producer is in a much better situation. Absolutely.

situation. Absolutely.

Nadia, thank you so much. Nadia.

Martin Wigan of Cleland Capital. And those prices just continue to go higher. Natural gas front month futures now up

higher. Natural gas front month futures now up 34%. Coming up, we're going to be speaking

34%. Coming up, we're going to be speaking with Julie Norman of Chatham House. As the Iran war ripples across the region. This is Bloomberg.

region. This is Bloomberg.

It's 5:30 a.m. in New York City, 10:30 a.m.

in london. Good morning.

I'm Vonnie Quinn with your bloomberg brief.

Let's get you set up for the day. Stock futures and treasuries extending losses as the war with iran enters its fourth day, heightening fears of inflation. Oil extending its rally and gas surging

inflation. Oil extending its rally and gas surging as the world's largest LNG export plant in Qatar remains shut.

The US and Israeli militaries continue to bombard Iran's capital as the US sends mixed signals on the timeline for the war.

And we just got in the last half hour another post from Donald Trump on Truth Social saying that worse than last forever.

So that didn't help sentiment in this market that was already feeling pretty dour. NASDAQ 100 futures down 2.3%, even as we

dour. NASDAQ 100 futures down 2.3%, even as we saw the Nasdaq really get calm yesterday.

In fact, it finished the session higher thanks to big tech.

Microsoft is up more than 1%, for example, on the day today, again, we're starting off on a frail footing. If we look at treasuries, that trend continues as well, with yields higher not just in the United States, but across the board, everywhere from Japan to Australia.

Look at that. The ten year yield is up another six basis points. I'll tell you just how much money is

basis points. I'll tell you just how much money is coming out of government bonds, because as I said, it's not just US treasuries.

Obviously, traders very a fear now for inflation.

The dollar index continuing to rise and the VIX today at perhaps a more apt 26.

And just taking a look at energy, this is the reason behind it all.

Brent crude is now close to $83 a barrel and New York crude close to 76 a barrel.

Meanwhile, European gas futures are up 38%.

Let's get to individual movers now. Here's a buyer, Abu Omar.

Good morning, Vonnie. It's really hard to find a stock that is moving upward for a reason today and that is on the back of the tensions that you've mentioned. As a matter of fact, the U.S.

you've mentioned. As a matter of fact, the U.S.

futures image is quite dark today. You're seeing it down 2% in video.

The biggest constituent there is retreating by more than 3% this morning.

And part of that story is perhaps because of those chip caps.

Now, this is according to a Bloomberg story that cites some sources.

So we're reporting that US officials are considering for NVIDIA to cap chip sales to single Chinese companies to 75,000 of these H 200 chips.

So that is not the stock is not behaving or it's not responding well to that information, perhaps on those supply chain shocks that could come up as the Middle East tensions get heightened. Moving on to perhaps the only sector that is doing quite well this morning, and that is energy battalion.

This is a small energy company that is adding to those gains from earlier in the pre trade session up around 135% revenue, a whopping gain to those energy stocks, especially as Brent crude prices near the $82 a barrel.

And that is expected to go higher if the duration of the war was to be prolonged.

And then finally, moving on to the software sector.

This company, MongoDB, is losing in the pre trade session this morning, down about 30%, 27.6% down this morning. And that is on the back of weak revenue forecast. Now, software is one of those sectors

forecast. Now, software is one of those sectors that just have not been doing well this year.

But again, today, not much is doing well.

Bonnie. Yeah, that's for sure.

A, we'll see how the day progresses. Thank you so much.

To a buyer, Abu Omar. The U.S.

State Department is urging Americans to leave across the Middle East to drone struck near the US embassy in Riyadh as Tehran steps up strikes and retaliation against the US and Israel. President Donald Trump says there is no fixed timeline on the war. Julie Norman is Associate Fellow on the Middle East at Chatham House and she joins us now.

A repetition of that this morning, along with the protestation, if you like, from the president, that indeed the US does have enough munitions.

Julie, does this come down to who has the munitions that will last longest?

Well, good morning, Vonnie. The munitions race, so to speak, is certainly part of this. Obviously, the US and Israel have a lot of military pressure they can keep throwing at Iran.

We've seen that and overwhelming force over the last several days.

Iran going into this conflict, we estimate probably had about 2000 missiles. And some of those they want to be using

missiles. And some of those they want to be using quickly before they are destroyed by Israeli and U.S.

strikes. But some they also want to keep in reserve to be able to have their own retaliation capacities.

But, YOSVANY, I would say there are other things beyond this at play.

Also, Iran obviously has other actors in the region that are supporting it.

Hezbollah, whose these these actors have been very weakened in the last several years but do still have some capacity to be disruptive.

Iran also has cyber options. They are obviously I'm already sort of weaponizing the waterways and sort of you're saying they will be targeting ships going through the Strait of Hormuz.

So there are other options beyond just munitions at the end of the day.

I think that's where the US is hoping where there will be some either capitulation or surrender. Yeah, I mean, does it get to the point where the US has to start taking different kinds of military measures to piece out today, analyzing what that might be?

And one of those things was dynamic targeting, right?

Which is not just preplanned targeting, but that's riskier.

It costs more money and it takes human beings.

Well, typically, unless you're using AI to actually be above these targets.

Absolutely. So right now, the US and Israel have been relying on these pre-planned airstrikes as the war, as the escalation continues. We probably will have to see some kind

continues. We probably will have to see some kind of shift to other types of military operations that are a bit more, I guess you could say, unpredictable. I will say on the ground in Iran, casualty estimates are over 700 right now.

And this is certainly within Iran. This is being felt quite strongly already even before moving to these other types of types of munitions.

And, you know, again, Iran itself is retaliating not only to Israel or to U.S. bases, but also to countries across the

U.S. bases, but also to countries across the Gulf as well as into Jordan, and not only to bases, but also to civilian infrastructure as well. So I do think you're seeing the population is starting to feel this war in a very different way than they have in previous iterations. Julie.

It's a Tuesday evening now in Tehran. And I'm curious, are these Tuesday midday? Right.

midday? Right.

I'm curious as to why we haven't heard any word of a new supreme leader yet.

Yes, there are. And this is a bit of a process to get to that point. You know, the ayatollah did put in a

that point. You know, the ayatollah did put in a sort of a plan for what would happen if he was killed, if he was assassinated.

And so there is a sort of transitional agency that's kind of working right now to try it of individuals who are kind of working on this, but for the actual supreme leader to be chosen. That is a process that includes the Assembly of Experts, the Guardian Council, and again, really relies on a lot of the apparatus that the it's that the Islamic regime intentionally put in

place for things like this, that there would be a lot of internal control over who took on that role and that it wouldn't just be kind of an automatic succession, say, to Khamenei's son or something like this.

But there on that is certainly in process right now in Iran.

But again, you're talking about this happening in the midst of an extremely kinetic war where individuals themselves are being targeted consistently.

Sure. But you could argue that that's the time where you need a quick response. Right.

And a show of unity. Will we have any answers to any questions when we do know who the next supreme leader will be as to, for example, whether the the internal domestic situation is a united situation, whether the IRGC will be loyal to the regime and so on.

Yeah. I think it's so remains to be seen what will happen internally with Iran. What we can say right now is that the IRGC, even with its its leaders, targeted, it's still a massive body, you know, upwards of a million strong that so far have still remained very loyal to the regime, still are showing a capacity to crack down on any attempts at

protests and whatnot. And we saw that obviously in mass back in January. So we haven't seen defections from that

in January. So we haven't seen defections from that group yet, nor from some of their supported paramilitaries.

So with that kind of very widespread, very deeply integrated security apparatus, it's difficult to see a quick changeover right away.

It does seem that the regime will hang on in some way, shape or form, even though very different from the way that we knew it.

Julie Just curious about the US and Israel and, you know, the fact.

Basically they started this operation together.

Israel is having an inside operation with Hezbollah in Lebanon and so on.

But is the US tied to Israel's campaign here or can the US stop or pull out or do whatever to de-escalate while Israel continues to escalate?

You know, I think it'll be difficult at this point, Vonnie, for that kind of split. The U.S.

split. The U.S.

and Israel went into this together. Obviously, Israel's leading on some components in the US and others, but this is very much a joint operation at this point. Certainly Israel as the regional actor

this point. Certainly Israel as the regional actor prior to this latest escalation and certainly after this, will likely be carrying out some of its own, some of its own actions.

But in terms of the actual operation we're seeing now, this does look like a joint venture. And it's one, quite honestly, where

joint venture. And it's one, quite honestly, where you're trying to end. The U.S., I think, will have the biggest say in what was accepting to kind of end this.

You know, Trump has at some moment seemed open to to a negotiation with other Iranian leaders who might be willing to negotiate or capitulates, whereas at other times, it seems like they are looking for something leading to a much more significant regime change.

But at the end of the day, it will be more Trump.

I think making that call even then than Israel.

But right now, operationally, they're very much in coordination.

Julie, do you see an end game here, an offer for Iran?

I mean, it's coming under more and more urging, if not pressure from even the likes of China, you know, one of its allies at this point to find an offer to make things good. What could it offer?

Just say it. We're in a mind to offer anything at this point. Yeah.

this point. Yeah.

You know, I think what one thought that I think Trump has gone into this with is the idea that a more pragmatic, you know, tier two leader from Iran could step forward and be willing to make some of those concessions that Trump has been pushing for and declare that they will not develop a nuclear weapon or have nuclear infrastructure. Number one.

nuclear infrastructure. Number one.

Number two, dismantle their their missile program.

Number three, stop support for proxies in the region.

So I think Trump thought he might be able to pressure someone within the Iranian regime to be the pragmatist and do that.

I think a lot of us are very wary of that from Iran's point of view.

You have a regime that is obviously very weak, but not dissimilar to Hamas in Gaza, simply by not surrendering and by not giving in.

That's that's all they need to do to kind of stay in this fight and to make it look like at least a partial victory. And so I think we'll see some attempt at that for at least a while longer. Julie, fantastic analysis.

Thank you so much for your time this morning.

Julie Norman of Chatham House. Now to other top stories trending on the terminal this morning. Blackstone is letting investors redeem a record 7.9% of shares from its flagship private credit fund.

That's equivalent to around $3.8 billion.

The fund has around $82 billion of total assets, including leveraged redemption requests. It picks up amid anxiety over the asset

requests. It picks up amid anxiety over the asset class and its exposure to software businesses.

Open Air CEO Altman says the rush to make a deal with the Defense Department, quote, looked opportunistic and sloppy. In a post shared on Ex, Altman says his company was working with the department to make some additions.

In our agreement to make our principles very clear, This includes ensuring that A.I. isn't used for domestic surveillance of

A.I. isn't used for domestic surveillance of Americans. U.S.

Americans. U.S.

and Chinese trade negotiators are slated to meet in mid-March to discuss business deals that could stem from a summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping.

Trump is scheduled to travel to China from March 31st to April 2nd to meet with Xi, the first trip by an American president since his visit back in 2017.

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I'm not going to give away the details of our tactical efforts, but the hardest hits are yet to come from the US military.

The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterating President Trump's message of not having a timeline for the war with Iran.

Meantime, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected the idea of an endless war.

Joining us now from Washington is Mika Soler of Bloomberg Government.

Mika, what should we anticipate hearing today given that we got another tweet social from the president this morning saying that war is can be forever wars.

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we're getting mixed messages here from the administration in some ways.

Initially, the president had said and administration top administration officials have said that this war will last no more than 4 to 5 weeks.

But they're also saying that they're prepared to go longer if necessary.

Now, what's unclear to a lot of lawmakers on Capitol Hill what exactly the objectives are for the Trump administration when it comes to the next few weeks and what that's going to look like.

And I think those questions are going to be answered a little bit more behind closed doors today on the Hill. You know, the Saudi embassy was struck by drones, two of them this morning. And then we have the State Department also urging citizens, American citizens across the region, the Middle East, to leave. Does it suggest that the U.S.

leave. Does it suggest that the U.S.

wasn't prepared or was a little bit surprised, perhaps by the Iran retaliation as it took place? Yeah.

I mean, some retaliation was clearly expected.

I think it's a question of how far this is going to escalate.

And there's no doubt that this is going to intensify in the next few weeks.

And the relations right now are just really, you know, challenging.

And I think it's going to create geopolitical problems as well with more countries starting to back this effort. So I think that we're going to see more what happens. But I know that the White House is

what happens. But I know that the White House is really cognizant of the risks, but they're really trying to downplay any major concerns when it comes to potential potential retaliation.

Thank you so much. Make us owner of Bloomberg governments.

Turning to commodities now, oil extending its rally today as the war with Iran progresses through its fourth day.

So we have wti above 76 and Brent also up nearly 7% at $83.

Bloomberg's EMEA news director, Will Kennedy joins us now.

So will, yesterday we obviously saw a bit of a spike, but things calmed down a little bit. Today, it doesn't seem like the market.

little bit. Today, it doesn't seem like the market.

Is that calm again? No, and I think that reflects some of what you were just talking about, about message from the administration that this war may not be over quickly, that it could go on for some time.

And with the Strait of Hormuz de facto closed at the moment, with most big oil tankers not travelling through the strait, there'll be nervousness among oil traders about the possibility for disruption to oil supplies that lasts for several weeks. China is even urging Iran now to at least not have the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Right.

I mean, is that a possibility? Can Iran, I don't know, escort ships or how does that how does that backlog come out of the of the problem?

I mean, it will be, I think, in some ways up to the United States.

The US is obviously the main naval power.

It's trying to knock out the Iranian navy.

It's stated that as a war aim on a couple of occasions.

There may come a time where the US Navy feels comfortable enough to say that we're okay for you to start transiting the strait and that it's possible, although there hasn't been any talk about this, that they do pay some kind of escorting role down the future. But both the this is probably one area where Washington and Beijing is aligned.

They don't want this to become a prolonged disruption.

As you say, the flow of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz is a very important issue for China, which buys an awful lot of Middle Eastern oil, much more than the US does, though it's so complicated. You get that all working in because you also have to have ports open so they can dock and unload European natural gas.

It's absolutely surging. There's a little bit of a knock on effect to American natural gas right now.

Henry Hub. How does this get this has perhaps been the most meaningful thing that we've seen in the energy sector so far during this conflict is that yesterday Qatar announced that it had completely stopped its giant natural gas plant. It supplies 20% of global liquefied natural gas, which is transported to Asia, to Europe, to Europe.

It's a problem because Europe has become much more import, much more dependent on liquid natural gas imports. After stopping getting gas from Russia through pipelines. And the US is the other big supplier,

through pipelines. And the US is the other big supplier, but the US is pretty maxed out. It's still building export plants, but it's supplying all the gas economy, the global market.

So there's not an obvious place for the Europe to replace that supply if it's outage is prolonged. Fascinating moves, Will.

Thank you so much. Bloomberg's Will Kennedy.

Jp morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says war in the Middle East risks higher inflation and therefore potential shockwaves to the US economy and stock market.

He spoke with Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz yesterday at the bank's annual leveraged finance conference in Miami.

But one of our brilliant folks wrote a report years ago, Mike Sambos, that you look at all these wars around the world since World War Two.

The market reacts, but it never had a real long term effect other than the Israeli conflict. Oil prices 111 eye for an extended

Israeli conflict. Oil prices 111 eye for an extended period time in 1973. So the world kind of tastes is dry, but geopolitics is a major issue. It's much more complex today than it has been since World War Two until about Ukraine, Russia, Iran, North Korea, all relate with China. And that could have an effect, but it may not. So these things may diminish over time.

may not. So these things may diminish over time.

You know, this war with Iran, you know, it is short in oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but it is a short and not prolonged.

It probably won't have a major effect if it becomes prolonged and all bets are off to tell you how offsides for this market be.

If there were truly a stagflation area shock, given the fact that there seems to be comfort with the idea of disinflation right now.

Well, I think that's true, but I think that was true before this war.

So if you look at, you know, my view is the price as the price of going to high credit spreads are kind of low. It's kind of a lot of complacency.

The market. I'm not sure.

You know, we look at risk, we look at the broad range of outcomes and there are negative outcomes. But one of them would be, you know, inflation. Of course, that's the skunk at the

inflation. Of course, that's the skunk at the party. So it's been coming down, but it seems

party. So it's been coming down, but it seems to maybe leveled off around 3% if things make it go up.

And this is only one thing. You know, you can look at metal prices, construction prices, insurance prices, wages for certain things, other things.

You know, inflation is a big thing. It's not just oil.

So, you know, we'll say right now this will add a little bit, a teeny bit to inflation. Not a lot.

inflation. Not a lot.

I was surprised because things were kind of gloomy coming in today.

And the mood here is not that actually there's a lot of optimism.

There are a lot of different companies that are building things and investing things. I mean, how vulnerable really is the US

things. I mean, how vulnerable really is the US economy right now to some sort of geopolitical.

Shop. Well, it may not be geo political.

It may be the companies who start to lay people off.

And so I think, look, the most important thing in the world is geopolitical.

What happens to the free, western democratic world, which is kind of been under attack by Russia and Ukraine, by Iran in the Middle East, a little bit by China, wants to divide and conquer the Western world and, you know, both militarily and economically. You know, you have all their neighbors are rearming because of their actions, not going to anyone else.

So those are the most important things I did.

Global deficits are so large. But those are those are like I call it, like large moving tectonic plates that may or may not affect the economy in the short run. They may be determinative in the longer

short run. They may be determinative in the longer run. And some of these things are about war,

run. And some of these things are about war, you know, Vietnam. You know, did it affect the economy in the very short run? No.

It had a 20 year effect after that. So you got to look at these things as they're moving plates, Delta. It could take five years to have an effect, but it's actually real right now.

The economy is doing fine. Asset prices are high.

People are assuming things go on. I mean, nobody you talk to has any idea that credit spreads can get bad a lot. And they could just because of sentiment. And so so I think there's a little bit

sentiment. And so so I think there's a little bit of it, a little more exuberance. I think there should be.

But we've had years of it. And, you know, the one big beautiful bill edge to edge to growth this year.

Bank deregulation, other deregulation as to growth and animal spirits.

So we'll see. But but you point out, I think, you know, the skunk would be inflation. So we've got to keep our eye on them closely. My

closely. My future is pretty much at the lows of the session now as we continue to get headlines. And of course, the State Department

headlines. And of course, the State Department urging Americans to leave the Middle East entirely NASDAQ 100 features pointed down by 2.3%. Also, energy just surging.

Take a look at barrels of crude in Europe, up 8%, now above $84.

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