Stocks Extend Slide with Brent Oil Above $100 | Bloomberg Brief 3/13/2026

VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY AND 9:00 A.M.

IN LONDON, ON VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF, LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENS FURTHER ATTACKS ON IRAN AS TEHRAN THREATENS TO KEEP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED. BRENT HOVERS ABOVE 100 DOLLARS A BARREL. THE U.S. BEGINS ITS SECOND TRADE PROBES

A BARREL. THE U.S. BEGINS ITS SECOND TRADE PROBES AS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RUSHES TO CONSTRUCT A NEW TARIFF REGIME. U.S. TREASURY VOLATILITY JUMPS TO A

TARIFF REGIME. U.S. TREASURY VOLATILITY JUMPS TO A NINE MONTH HIGH AS THE WAR STOKES INFLATION CONCERNS AHEAD OF PCE DATA LATER THIS MORNING. LET'S LOOK AT THOSE MARKETS.

OIL, NO LET UP IN SIGHT. TRUMP WARNING IRAN TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. THAT CERTAINLY NOT HELPING.

WE ARE JUST ABOVE $100 A BARREL ON BRENT. SAME FOR WTI ABOVE 95.

THE WHOLE OIL COMPLEX REPRICING CONFLICT RISK CONSTANTLY.

SCARCITY IS IN FOCUS.

TRADERS DO KEEP REMAKING THEIR ASSUMPTIONS ON HOW LONG THIS CONFLICT IS GOING TO LAST. TO THAT IS AND, LOOK AT THE 10 YEAR YIELD UP TO 4.2 SEVEN, PRACTICALLY.

IT IS ACROSS THE WHOLE YIELD CURVE WE ARE SEEING YIELDS RISE AND RISE. STRAINS OF THE PRIVATE CREDIT

AND RISE. STRAINS OF THE PRIVATE CREDIT INDUSTRY ALSO WEIGHING ON THIS MARKET, THE VIX IS STARTING TO PICK UP FOR A SECOND DAY. FUTURES, WE DID SEE A MIXED SESSION. BITCOIN IS HIGHER. THERE IS AN RISK ON AN RISK OFF

SESSION. BITCOIN IS HIGHER. THERE IS AN RISK ON AN RISK OFF TRADE TODAY. FUTURES HAVE TURNED LOWER NOW.

TRADE TODAY. FUTURES HAVE TURNED LOWER NOW.

THEY WERE HIGHER EARLIER. THE END WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE DOJ NEXT WEEK. IT IS TRADING ABOVE 159.

INDIVIDUAL MOVERS IN THE PREMARKET, OIL MOVERS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. YOU LOOK AT CHEVRON, EXXON,

AGAIN TODAY. YOU LOOK AT CHEVRON, EXXON, OCCIDENTAL, CONOCOPHILLIPS, HIGHER OFF OF THE BACK OF THE OIL PRICE MOVING HIGHER AND STAYING HIGHER EVEN AFTER THE RELIEF YESTERDAY. CONOCO IS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE

RELIEF YESTERDAY. CONOCO IS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE PREMARKET, BUT ULTIMATELY THESE SHARE PRICES ARE UP SEVERELY.

CHEVRON UP 30% YEAR TO DATE. CONOCOPHILLIPS UP 28% YEAR TO DATE.

ADOBE WILL HAVE A TOUGH DAY POST EARNINGS.

IT DID BEAT ON THE TOP AND BOTTOM LINES BUT SOME SEGMENTS, THE TRADITIONAL STOCK PHOTO SEGMENT, BATTERED BY THE USE OF AI GENERATED IMAGERY. IT IS HOVERING AROUND MULTIYEAR LOWS. ULTA LOWER IN THE PREMARKET.

LOWS. ULTA LOWER IN THE PREMARKET.

IT BEAT ON THE TOP LINE BUT MISSED ON THE BOTTOM LINE AND PROFITABILITY WILL BE IN FOCUS ON THE YEAR.

MARGINS TAKING A BIG HIT. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE CONSUMER, GAS PRICES, THE IRAN WAR, SO ON.

IT WAS CONSERVATIVE IN ITS OUTLOOK.

BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ALSO POINT INTO ITS WELLNESS PUSH, THAT NEEDS MORE EFFORT. AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW AND WE WILL COUNT DOWN TO THE INFLATION FRONT WITH SEEMA SHAH OF PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT. PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENING AROUND WITH MORE ATTACKS, POSTING ON TRUTH SOCIAL, "WE HAVE UNPARALLELED FIREPOWER, UNLIMITED AMMUNITION, AND

PLENTY OF TIME. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO THESE DERANGED SCUMBAGS."

DERANGED SCUMBAGS." JOUMANNA BERCETCHE AND ANTHONY DIPAOLA IN DUBAI.

WHERE ARE WE IN TERMS OF REACTION TO THOSE COMMENTS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST REGION AND IRAN IN PARTICULAR?

JOUMANNA: DAY 14 OF THE IRAN WAR, HOST NAME. YESTERDAY WE HEARD FROM THE

NAME. YESTERDAY WE HEARD FROM THE SUPREME LEADER, THE NEW SUPREME LEADER, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. A STATEMENT WAS READ BY A NEWS READER ON STATE TELEVISION. THE MESSAGING WAS ONE OF DEFIANCE. ONCE AGAIN REITERATING THAT

DEFIANCE. ONCE AGAIN REITERATING THAT THEY PLAN TO CONTINUE FIGHTING BACK.

THEIR INTENTION IS TO KEEP THE STRAIT CLOSED.

THEY ARE AWARE OF HOW MUCH DISRUPTION THIS IS CAUSING ON INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, ENERGY AND SHIPPING MARKETS.

AT THE SAME TIME, REPEATING U.S. ASSETS IN THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TARGET SO LONG AS GULF COUNTRIES HOST THEM.

MORE MESSAGING IN TERMS OF DEFIANCE AND POTENTIAL RETALIATION. YOU'VE ALWAYS SAID THE FOR THE

RETALIATION. YOU'VE ALWAYS SAID THE FOR THE IRANIAN REGIME THIS HAS BEEN AN EXISTENTIAL FIGHT FOR THEIR OWN EXISTENCE. EVEN OF THE WAR ENDED TOMORROW,

EXISTENCE. EVEN OF THE WAR ENDED TOMORROW, THEY WOULD PROBABLY STILL DEEM IT A VICTORY AS LONG AS THE REGIME ITSELF REMAINS INTACT. THEY'VE IDENTIFIED THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BECOME A KEY CHOKEPOINT FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. ON THE OTHER SIDE, PRESIDENT

ECONOMY. ON THE OTHER SIDE, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING THAT HE HIMSELF IS MORE FOCUSED ON ERADICATING IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES THAN THE PRICE OF OIL WITH OIL TRADING CLOSE TO $100. OPERATIONS ARE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE U.S. AND ISRAELI JOINT OPERATIONS

OVERNIGHT. THE U.S. AND ISRAELI JOINT OPERATIONS HAVE TARGETED MORE THAN 6000 SITES ACROSS IRAN.

IRAN CONTINUES TO FIGHT BACK. IN THE LAST 12 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL OF ATTACKS TAKING PLACE AROUND THE PERSIAN GULF. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THEY'VE

PERSIAN GULF. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THEY'VE STOPPED. WE'VE HEARD OF DRONE INTERCEPTIONS TAKING PLACE IN

STOPPED. WE'VE HEARD OF DRONE INTERCEPTIONS TAKING PLACE IN SAUDI ARABIA, AND THE UAE, ALSO IN DUBAI DRONE INTERCEPTIONS CAUSED A LIMITED DAMAGE AROUND CENTRAL DUBAI.

I'M GOING INTERCEPTIONS ABOVE THE KUWAIT AIRPORT.

THEY ARE STILL TARGETING STRATEGIC ASSETS AROUND THE REGION. AS YOU CAN SEE COME THE LANGUAGE FROM BOTH SIDES

REGION. AS YOU CAN SEE COME THE LANGUAGE FROM BOTH SIDES APPEARS TO BE ONE OF WE ARE GOING TO GET GOING WITH THIS WAR. VONNIE:

WAR. VONNIE: ANTHONY, OUR BLOOMBERG OPINION COLUMNIST SAID THE ADMINISTRATION IS RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS FOR BRINGING DOWN GAS PRICES, OIL PRICES TOO. RBC SAYING AFTER CONVERSATIONS IN WASHINGTON, D.C. SHE THINKS THE PRICE COULD GO TO THE HIGHEST THAT WE'VE SEEN SINCE THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR, 120 EIGHT DOLLARS PER BARREL, AND THAT COULD HAPPEN SOON

BECAUSE SHE NOW THINKS THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR WEEKS OF THIS. WHAT IS THE MARKET TELLING US WITH BRENT ABOVE $100 A BARREL EVEN AFTER ALL OF THOSE RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS? ANTHONY:

ANNOUNCEMENTS? ANTHONY: HI, GOOD MORNING. WE ARE HEARING THAT MAY BE THAT $100 IS IT ENOUGH. THE RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENT OF 400 MILLION BARRELS A DAY WAS A BIG NUMBER MEANT TO UNDERPIN CONFIDENCE IN THE MARKET THAT CONSUMING COUNTRIES WERE TAKING

ACTION, OR DOING WHAT THEY COULD DO TO SOFTEN THE BLOW TO THE ECONOMY. IN TERMS OF OPTIONS THAT EITHER

THE ECONOMY. IN TERMS OF OPTIONS THAT EITHER TRUMP HAS OVER THE IEA MEMBER STATES HAVE, THESE ARE OPTIONS THAT ARE BAND-AIDS OR MINOR SOLUTIONS TO A BIGGER PART OF THE PROBLEM. THAT'S THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THE PROBLEM. THAT'S THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

WITHOUT IT BEING REOPENED IN THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF OIL BEING ABLE TO FLOW OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF WE WON'T FIND AN EASY SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM. THE LONGER THAT STAYS SHUT THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR FIELDS TO HAVE LONGER-TERM DAMAGE OR POTENTIAL FOR IT TO TAKE LONGER TO START THINGS BACK UP. THE LONGER WE STRETCH IT OUT,

BACK UP. THE LONGER WE STRETCH IT OUT, THE LONGER THE KNOCK ON IMPACTS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AGAIN, THE MEASURES LIKE RELEASING OIL, IT'S A MATTER OF FLOW. IN TERMS OF THE IEA RELEASE OF

FLOW. IN TERMS OF THE IEA RELEASE OF MEMBER COUNTRIES LIKE THE U.S., JAPAN, EUROPEAN COUNTRIES THAT WILL RELEASE OIL, THEY CAN'T DO IT AT A RATE FAST ENOUGH TO REPLACE WHAT WERE MISSING FROM THE PERSIAN GULF PRODUCERS.

THESE ARE SOME OF THE BIGGEST PRODUCERS THERE.

SAUDI ARABIA, IRAQ, IRAN. PRODUCTION IS DOWN AND OIL IS SHUT IN. THAT'S A REAL PROBLEM FOR THE

SHUT IN. THAT'S A REAL PROBLEM FOR THE MARKET, WHOSE NAME. VONNIE: I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THE TREASURY SITUATION BECAUSE THE MOVE INDEX IS SPIKING AND TREASURIES ARE REALLY REFLECTING THE SPHERE.

-- REFLECTING THIS FEAR. DEFINITELY NOT A SAFETY TRAIT.

>> TRADE INTEREST-RATE CUTS FROM THE FED.

IT IS INTERESTING THAT TRUMP HAS RENEWED HIS CALLS FOR JEROME POWELL TO CUT INTEREST RATES.

VONNIE: I WILL HELP MEETING IS A FULL RATE CUT PRICED IN THIS YEAR. THANK YOU ALL.

TURNING TO TRADE, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION STARTING AT SECOND ROUND OF TARIFF INVESTIGATIONS ON 60 ECONOMIES AS IT ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD ITS AGENDA AFTER BEING STRUCK DOWN BY THE SUPREME COURT. JOINING US IS BLOOMBERG'S LAURA DAVIDSON. ASSUMING THE INVESTIGATIONS GO

DAVIDSON. ASSUMING THE INVESTIGATIONS GO AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE, WHEN WE MIGHT WE SEE ACTUAL TARIFFS BEING PLACED ON COUNTRIES? LAURA:

THIS COULD TAKE WEEKS IF NOT MONTHS. THEY COULD MOVE QUICKLY.

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS TAKING A MAXIMALIST APPROACH LOOKING AT THE TRADE INVESTIGATIONS THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY A PRECURSOR FOR NEW TARIFFS.

THIS IS THE SECOND ROUND THIS WEEK.

ONE ANNOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY WAS LOOKING AT OVERCAPACITY FROM TRADING PARTNERS, INCLUDING CHINA AND OTHER TOP TRADING PARTNERS. THE ONE ANNOUNCED ON THURSDAY

PARTNERS. THE ONE ANNOUNCED ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING INTO FORCED LABOR PRACTICES.

THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE SHIPPING -- THE SUPREME COURT STRIKING DOWN TARIFFS SAYING THAT THEY UNILATERALLY PUT THIS ON AND THEY HAVE TO BUILD THE CASE WHY THERE IS A NEED FOR TARIFFS AGAINST THESE TRADING PARTNERS. THE RISK FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS THAT THEY MOVE TOO QUICKLY.

IF THEY DON'T DO THE WORK THEY COULD ALSO FACE LEGAL CHALLENGES MOVING FORWARD AND BE STRUCK DOWN BY A COURT IN THE COMING MONTHS OR YEARS. VONNIE:

CHINA ALREADY TODAY COME THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE SAYING THIS IS AGAINST WTO RULES. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DOESN'T SUBSCRIBE TO WTO RULES IN THE FIRST PLACE, DOES IT, LAURA? LAURA: NO, THEY DO NOT. THIS HAS BEEN HEAVILY

LAURA? LAURA: NO, THEY DO NOT. THIS HAS BEEN HEAVILY CRITICIZED FROM DIFFERENT TRADING PARTNERS.

ALSO SEEING REPORTS THAT INDIA IS LOOKING TO DELAY ANY TRADE DEAL AS ALL OF THESE MOVING PIECES SHAKE OUT.

THE STRATEGY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION EMPLOYED DURING ITS FIRST TERM OF MOVE FAST, IMPOSE TARIFFS, BE WILLING TO THREATEN THEM AND PULL THEM BACK, THAT IS NO LONGER THE NAME OF THE GAME. IT IS A MORE SLOW PRODDING PROCESS, MORE TARGETED TARIFFS, MORE DIFFICULT SITUATION FOR TRUMP TO GET THE TARIFF RATES OF HIGH.

NOT TO SAY HE DOESN'T HAVE ANY TOOLS IN HIS TOOLBOX, BUT EXPOSING THE CRACKS IN HIS STRATEGY THAT TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE THE EXPENSE OF POWER OVER TARIFFS THAT HE INDICATED TO TRADING PARTNERS THAT HE DOES. VONNIE: THAT IS BLOOMBERG LAURA DAVIDSON. COMING UP, OUR EXCLUSIVE

DAVIDSON. COMING UP, OUR EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW ON THE COMPANY'S PLAN TO OFFSET TARIFF EXPENSES.

THAT IS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

VONNIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF, I'M VONNIE QUINN IN LONDON. SHARES OF DAIMLER TRUCK ARE DOWN AFTER A ROBUST RESULT. THEY ARE BANKING ON STRONGER SALES AND PLANNING FOR DEEPER COST CUTS TO COUNTER RAISING TARIFFS. JOINING US FOR AN EXCLUSIVE

TARIFFS. JOINING US FOR AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW IS THE CFO, EVA SCHERER. THANK YOU FOR JOINING.

TO THE TARIFFS, HOW ARE THEY IMPACTING DAIMLER TRUCK'S BUSINESS, HOW ARE YOU KEEPING TRACK AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE COSTS? EVA:

COSTS? EVA: THANKS FOR HAVING ME. HAPPY TO BE WITH YOU.

WHEN WE LOOK AT LAST YEAR, WHAT IMPACTED OUR RESULTING NORTH AMERICA WAS THE MARKET DOWNTURN AND THE LONGEST FREIGHT RECESSION IN RECENT HISTORY THAT WE WERE FACING.

WE HAD A 25% REDUCTION IN UNIT SALES YEAR-OVER-YEAR.

DESPITE THAT, WE WERE ABLE TO COME IN WITH A RETURN ON SALES ADJUSTED OF 10.7%. WE ALSO HAD A TARIFF EFFECT OF ABOUT 250 MILLION EUROS NET. IF I WOULD DEDUCT THAT WE WOULD HAVE EVEN ENDED WITH 12% PROFITABILITY IN NORTH AMERICA.

WE HAVE NAVIGATED THE SITUATION QUITE WELL, BECAUSE WE HAVE ADOPTED QUITE QUICKLY TO THE CHANGING VOLUME ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WAS THE BIGGEST IMPACT. WE ADJUSTED OUR COST STRUCTURE.

WE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR WORKFORCE.

WE ALSO REACTED WITH PRICING MEASURES AND FOCUSED ON DELIVERING VALUE TO OUR CUSTOMERS.

AND FLEXIBILITY IS KEY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.

OUR HIGHLY FLEXIBLE PRODUCTION FOOTPRINT HELPS US NAVIGATE THAT. VONNIE:

THAT. VONNIE: OBVIOUSLY THE CONFLICT IN IRAN IS ON THE RADAR TOO.

YOU HAVE THAT TO DEAL WITH. YOU ARE NOT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, PER SE, BUT THERE WILL BE KNOCK ON EFFECTS.

WHAT WILL BE THE MAJOR ONES FOR DAIMLER AND HOW DO YOU PLAN TO DEAL WITH RISING FUEL PRICES AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO FREIGHT AND SO ON? EVA: ABSOLUTELY.

ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST FIRST, FROM A BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE IT'S ONLY 1% TO 2% OF OUR GLOBAL REVENUES, WITH THE MERCEDES-BENZ TRUCKS BRAND. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE SAFETY OF OUR PEOPLE IN THE REGION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO US.

THEN, WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE IMPACTS ON SUPPLY CHAIN AND LOGISTICS. YOU MENTIONED THE BIGGEST RISK

LOGISTICS. YOU MENTIONED THE BIGGEST RISK WE SEE IF THE CRISIS PROLONGS IS THE IMPACT ON THE MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT.

WE ENDED LAST YEAR WITH A VERY POSITIVE MOMENTUM IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA. OUR TWO MOST IMPORTANT MARKETS

NORTH AMERICA. OUR TWO MOST IMPORTANT MARKETS WHERE WE ARE ALSO NUMBER ONE IN THE TRUCK MARKET.

WE OBVIOUSLY HOPE THE POSITIVE MOMENTUM CONTINUES.

WE DO CLOSELY LOOK AT FUEL PRICES.

THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE OPERATING COSTS AS OF OUR CUSTOMERS. AT THE MOMENT WE SEE THE

OUR CUSTOMERS. AT THE MOMENT WE SEE THE POSITIVE AUTO MOMENTUM CONTINUING AND WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION PROGRESSES. VONNIE:

WE OBVIOUSLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT MILITARY TRUCKS BUSINESS.

I'M CURIOUS HOW YOU PLAN ON TAKING ADVANTAGE OF CERTAIN SITUATIONS IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE BUSINESS? EVA:

IN EUROPE, WE DO SEE THAT BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MOVING INTO A POSITIVE DIRECTION AND THE SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR AFTER A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LAST ONE TO TWO YEARS. WE'VE BEEN HOPING THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION IN

TWO YEARS. WE'VE BEEN HOPING THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION IN GERMANY WOULD PICK UP QUICKER, FUELED BY INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING AND DEFENSE SPENDING THAT WAS ANNOUNCED BY THE NEW ADMINISTRATION ABOUT A YEAR AGO. WE DO NOT REALLY SEE THAT IN OUR ORDERS MOMENTUM YET IN GERMANY, BUT WE SEE ORDERS

BEING A BIT BETTER IN RECENT WEEKS AND HOPE IT WILL PICK UP BECAUSE GERMANY REPRESENTS A BIG MARKET FOR US.

DOUBLE THE MARKET SHARE IN GERMANY THAN THE REST OF EUROPE.

EUROPE WE HAVE ABOUT 17.7 PERCENT IN MEDIUM AND HEAVY-DUTY. WE SEE A GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF

HEAVY-DUTY. WE SEE A GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF OUR DEFENSE BUSINESS OVERALL. WE HAVE WON TENDER WITH THE FRENCH ARMY, DELIVERING 7000 VEHICLES. WE BELIEVE WE ARE WELL-POSITIONED FOR DEFENSE GROWTH BECAUSE WE FOCUS ON

LOGISTICS VEHICLES THERE. AS ONE OF THE LARGEST TRUCK MANUFACTURERS IN THE WORLD WE KNOW HOW TO SCALE PRODUCTION QUICKLY BECAUSE WE KNOW HOW TO MANAGE A CYCLICAL BUSINESS AND WE HAVE A GREAT SERVICE AND PARTS NETWORK AVAILABLE THAT HELPS ALSO IN THIS MARKET. VONNIE:

SPEAKING OF PRODUCTION, ARE YOU IN ANY TALKS WITH THE U.S.

ADMINISTRATION ON EXPANDING PRODUCTION OR PERHAPS INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES OR EVEN A PLANT? EVA:

WE ARE IN CONSTRUCTIVE DISCUSSIONS WITH THE U.S.

ADMINISTRATION. WE HAVE A STRONG AMERICAN FOOTPRINT.

WE ARE THE MARKET LEADER IN CLASS-A TRUCKS IN NORTH AMERICA WITH 39.6% MARKET SHARE LAST YEAR.

WE HAVE SEVEN PRODUCTION SITES IN THE U.S.

AND WE CONSTANTLY INVEST INTO THEM. WE HAVE APPLIED FOR PREFERENTIAL TARIFF TREATMENT. BASICALLY ACKNOWLEDGING THE U.S.

CONTENT THAT WE HAVE IN OUR TRUCKS THAT WE ASSEMBLE IN MEXICO, AND WE ARE POSITIVE THAT WILL HELP US REDUCE THE TARIFF BURDEN. SO, WE ARE INCREASING OUR U.S.

TARIFF BURDEN. SO, WE ARE INCREASING OUR U.S.

CONTENT THERE AND CONSTANTLY LOOKING AT HOW WE KEEP STRENGTHENING OUR U.S. MANUFACTURING. VONNIE:

THE SHIFT TO ELECTRIC TRUCKS, HOW IS IT GOING?

ON THE ONE HAND YOU HAVE CHINA IN YOUR REARVIEW MIRROR TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH YOU. ON THE OTHER HAND, IN SOME AREAS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY THE ELECTRIC MARKET IS NOT A PRIORITY ANYMORE. EVA: IN THE U.S.

PRIORITY ANYMORE. EVA: IN THE U.S.

WE BELIEVE IT WILL BE DIESEL FOR LONGER.

WE ARE WELL-POSITIONED THERE BECAUSE WE HAVE THE LARGEST HEAVY-DUTY POWERTRAIN IN THE WORLD IN UNIT SALES PER YEAR.

WE ARE INVESTING IN THE NEXT GENERATION OF EFFICIENCY FOR OUR DIESEL POWERTRAIN. IN EUROPE, THE ZERO EMISSION TRANSFORMATION IS GOING A BIT FASTER THAN IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD, AND I'M HAPPY TO REPORT WE HAVE THE MOST SUCCESSFUL HEAVY-DUTY ON HIGHWAY TRUCK THERE IN THE MARKET. WE HAVE A MARKET SHARE AS OF

MARKET. WE HAVE A MARKET SHARE AS OF QUARTER FOUR LAST YEAR FOR THE FULL YEAR OF AROUND 40%, BUT 50% IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, SO A POSITIVE TREND.

WE TAKE CHINESE COMPETITION SERIOUSLY BUT BELIEVE WITH OUR BATTERY TECHNOLOGY AND HIGH-EFFICIENCY LEVEL WE CAN DELIVER VALUE TO OUR CUSTOMERS AND BUILDING ON OUR STRONG INFRASTRUCTURE, SPARE PARTS, AND SERVICE NETWORK IN EUROPE.

VONNIE: GROWTH IN INDIA WAS ONE OF YOUR STRATEGIC GOALS. IS THAT NOW A LITTLE ON PAUSE

STRATEGIC GOALS. IS THAT NOW A LITTLE ON PAUSE GIVEN HOW THE COUNTRY IS BASICALLY SUFFERING PLENTY OF SECONDARY EFFECTS FROM THE WAR? EVA:

IN INDIA? TALKING ABOUT INDIA, RIGHT?

VONNIE: YES. EVA: I JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE THAT I HEARD YOU CORRECTLY. INDIA IS ONE OF OUR GROWTH MARKETS. WE SEE GENERALLY A POSITIVE

MARKETS. WE SEE GENERALLY A POSITIVE MARKET MOMENTUM THERE FOR OUR PRODUCTS.

FOR US, INDIA IS REALLY A STRATEGY THAT GOES IN TWO DIRECTIONS BECAUSE WE ARE USING INDIA AS AN ENGINEERING AND I.T.

HUB FOR THE WHOLE WORLD AND ALSO A MANUFACTURING HUB FOR VARIOUS OTHER COUNTRIES. WE ALSO HAVE A LOCAL FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS THERE WHICH IS IMPORTANT FOR US TO DELIVER REALLY COST-EFFECTIVE TRUCKS TO PRICE-SENSITIVE REGIONS.

AND ALSO WITH OUR STRONG BRAND FOR THE INDIAN DOMESTIC MARKET.

VONNIE: A PLEASURE TO SPEAK WITH YOU.

THANK YOU. HOPEFULLY NEXT QUARTER AGAIN.

THAT IS EVA SCHERER OF DAIMLER TRUCK. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

VONNIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF, ON VONNIE QUINN IN LONDON, TIME FOR YOUR FRONT-PAGE NEWS.

ON THE NEW YORK TIMES, META DELAYING THE ROLLOUT OF A NEW AI MODEL AFTER PERFORMANCE CONCERNS.

THE TIMES REPORTS THAT THE MODEL, CODE-NAMED AVOCADO, HAS FALLEN SHORT OF COMPETITORS ON INTERNAL TESTS FOR REASONING, CODING, AND WRITING. NEXT, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTING THAT BYTEDANCE IS ASSEMBLING COMPUTING POWER WITH HIGH-END NVIDIA CHIPS OUTSIDE OF CHINA TO FUEL ITS AI AMBITIONS. THE JOURNAL REPORTS THAT

AMBITIONS. THE JOURNAL REPORTS THAT BYTEDANCE IS WORKING WITH SOUTHEAST ASIAN COMPANIES ON PLANS TO USE BLACK WHILE COMPUTING SYSTEMS IN MALAYSIA.

THE FINANCIAL TIMES' FRONT-PAGE, CARLYLE OVERHAULS ITS PRIVATE EQUITY FUND DUE TO POOR PERFORMANCE.

CARLISLE HIRED NINE PEOPLE TO THE FUND LAST YEAR AND PLANS TO RECRUIT TWO MORE. THE FT SAYS THAT IT'S A SIGN THE FIRM HAS RECOMMITTED TO EUROPE AFTER A PERIOD OF TURBULENCE. LET'S CHECK OUT THE MARKETS

TURBULENCE. LET'S CHECK OUT THE MARKETS GOING INTO THIS FRIDAY THE 13TH. S&P FUTURES ARE APPOINTED MARGINALLY LOWER. THE VIX IS FLIPPED.

MARGINALLY LOWER. THE VIX IS FLIPPED.

IT IS A NEGATIVE TERRITORY. COMING UP, WE WILL PUSH AHEAD TO PCE. ♪

TO PCE. ♪ VONNIE: 5:30 AM IN NEW YORK CITY AND 9:30 A.M. IN LONDON, I VONNIE WITH YOUR

9:30 A.M. IN LONDON, I VONNIE WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. THERE'S NO EASING IN SIGHT.

BLOOMBERG BRIEF. THERE'S NO EASING IN SIGHT.

PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENS ATTACKS ON IRAN AS TEHRAN VOWS TO KEEP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED.

PRINT ABOVE $100 A BARREL. ROUND TWO, THE U.S.

BEGINS ITS SECOND-RATE PROBE AS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RUSHES TO CONSTRUCT A NEW TARIFF REGIME. U.S.

TREASURY VOLATILITY JUMPING TO A NINE-MONTH HIGH AS THE WORST OAKS INFLATION CONCERNS AHEAD OF PCE DATA LATER THIS MORNING.

LET'S LOOK AT BRENT. WE ARE JUST OFF OF OUR HIGHS OF THE DAY, BUT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 101 DOLLARS.

NEW YORK CRUDE ABOVE 90 FIVE DOLLARS.

THE 10 YEAR YIELD IS CREEPING EVER HIGHER AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THERE'S NO LET UP INSIGHT FOR

ON. THERE'S NO LET UP INSIGHT FOR THE WHOLE OIL COMPLEX AS TRADERS CONTINUE TO REPRICE THIS ON AN HOURLY BASIS, IT SEEMS. IN TERMS OF EQUITY INDEXED FEATURES WE HAVE BEEN HIGHER, WE'VE BEEN LOWER ALL MORNING. RIGHT NOW POINTED TO A VERY

MORNING. RIGHT NOW POINTED TO A VERY MARGINAL LOWER OPENING. DON'T FORGET, WE ARE NOT THAT FAR OFF OUR RECORD 4.4% FOR THE S&P, 6.4% FOR THE NASDAQ.

THE YEN IS TELLING A BIG STORY.

159.3 FIVE. WE ARE WATCHING THE OIL MAJORS AS THEY CONTINUE TO DO WELL ON HIGHER PRICES.

MANY OF THEM HIGHER IN THE PREMARKET AND MANY OF THEM UP 30 %.

ALTERED BEAUTY -- ULTA BEAUTY IS DOWN AND ADOBE IS DOWN MORE THAN A PERCENT AFTER BIG EARNINGS QUARTER.

IT HAD A BEAT ON THE TOP AND BOTTOM LINE.

THE CEO WILL STEP DOWN AFTER 18 YEARS AND THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS SURROUNDING THE USE OF AI IN GENERAL.

THE STOCK PHOTO SEGMENT WAS REALLY BATTERED BY AI GENERATED IMAGERY. ANNUAL RECURRING IMAGERY IS NOT

IMAGERY. ANNUAL RECURRING IMAGERY IS NOT AS LOW. BACK TO ULTA MISSING ON THE

AS LOW. BACK TO ULTA MISSING ON THE BOTTOM LINE. PROFITABILITY WILL BE A KEY

BOTTOM LINE. PROFITABILITY WILL BE A KEY QUESTION ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO GROW.

IT NEEDS BASKETS TO BE BIGGER AND THE U.S.

CONSUMER TO HOLD UP, BUT WILL THE U.S.

CONSUMER HOLD UP IF GAS PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE? WE WILL SEE.

JUST UNDER THREE HOURS TO JANUARY PCE DATA.

JOINING US IS SEEMA SHAH OF PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHERE TO BEGIN BUT WE HAVE TO START WITH OIL. THIS WILL GO ON FOR A FEW WEEKS

WITH OIL. THIS WILL GO ON FOR A FEW WEEKS AT THE VERY LEAST, SHE SAID. WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS, YOUR BASE CASE?

SEEMA: OUR BASE CASE HAS TO BE THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED. YOU SEE OIL PRICES STABILIZE AROUND THE $90 MARK. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE.

WHAT HAS BEEN INTERESTING IS THAT THE DOWNSIDE SCENARIO HAS SHIFTED INTO A MORE NEGATIVE WAY IN THE PAST WEEK.

A WEEK AGO PEOPLE WERE TALKING ABOUT A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 120 DOLLARS A BARREL FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

THAT SEVERE SCENARIO HAS SHIFTED TO HUNDRED AND $50 OR EVEN SOME $200. THE EQUITY MARKET RESPONCE HAS BEEN QUITE MUTED SUGGESTING A LITTLE BIT OF COMPLACENCY, SOME VULNERABILITY IN THE MARKET IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. VONNIE:

WE SEE THE VIX SPIKING EVERY NOW AND THEN BUT IT COMES BACK AND WE AREN'T THAT FAR OFF OF OUR RECORDS. IT IS THE U.S.

STOCK MARKET MORE FOCUSED ON THINGS LIKE PRIVATE CREDIT CONCERNS, SOFTWARE CONCERNS? OR WILL IT AT SOME POINT PRICE IN A WORSE OUTCOME TO THIS WAR? SEEMA:

I THINK THE MARKET HAS BEEN CONDITIONED TO BELIEVE THAT GEOPOLITICAL CRISES ARE TYPICALLY SHORT-LIVED, AND THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE UNLESS IT HITS FUNDAMENTALS.

OIL PRICES ARE KEY HERE. THE EQUITY MARKET IS FOCUSING ON THE IDEA THAT BECAUSE OF AFFORDABILITY PRESSURES IN A MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR PRESIDENT TRUMP IS LIKELY TO BACK DOWN, CALL VICTORY, AND BRING IT TO AN END AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS THERE'S A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE YOU SEE A SNAP BACK OIL PRICES.

THE EQUITY MARKET IS A LITTLE AVERSE TO CHANGING POSITIONS SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS, BUT THIS IS A REAL CONTRAST TO THE BOND MARKET WHERE IT IS MORE CONCERNED THIS WILL BE A SUSTAINED CRISIS. YOU SEE OIL PRICES REMAINING OVER $100 A BARREL FOR A WHILE AND THAT FEEDING THROUGH TO INFLATION. THERE'S A CONTRAST BETWEEN

INFLATION. THERE'S A CONTRAST BETWEEN EQUITIES AND BONDS RIGHT NOW. VONNIE:

WHEN IT IS BROKEN YOU CANNOT REEL SOMETHING BACK IN AND ACCORDING TO JEFF CURRY THAT HAPPENED.

THERE'S NO RESPONSE TO OIL ABOVE $100 A BARREL.

YOU SEE MECHANISMS WHERE THAT WE COULD SEE OIL COME BACK TO EVEN $65 A BARREL, WHERE IT WAS BEFORE THIS, PRETTY SOON? SEEMA:

THERE'S THE POSSIBILITY THIS COMES TO AN END.

THIS COULD END AS QUICKLY AS IT STARTED.

AS DAYS ARE GOING BY COME RISKS ARE INCREASING THIS WILL BE A MORE PROTRACTED CONFLICT. AS YOU SEE A NUMBER OF THE PRODUCTION FACILITIES COME TO A HALT, ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, SOME OF IT BEING DAMAGED, IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THINGS MOVING WHILE THIS CONFLICT, OR WHATEVER IT IS, COMES TO AN END.

HAVING OIL PRICES SUSTAINED AT A HIGH LEVEL -- THEY MAY COME DOWN A LITTLE, BUT HAVING IT SUSTAINED AT A HIGHER LEVEL IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD. VONNIE: THERE ARE AT LEAST 10 CENTRAL BANKS MEETING NEXT WEEK. ALL THE BIG ONES AND SOME SMALLER ONES. WILL A RATE HIKE BE ON THE

SMALLER ONES. WILL A RATE HIKE BE ON THE TABLE? MAYBE NOT THIS COMING WEEK, BUT

TABLE? MAYBE NOT THIS COMING WEEK, BUT IN THE NEAR FUTURE? SEEMA: THIS IS THE WORST NIGHTMARE FOR CENTRAL BANKS BECAUSE IT CREATES SUCH A DYNAMIC WITH PRICES MOVING IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION THEN CENTRAL GROWTH. WE WOULD SEE THEM LOOK THROUGH

GROWTH. WE WOULD SEE THEM LOOK THROUGH THE PRICE INCREASE IN THE NEAR TERM.

THEY WANT TO LOOK THE WRIT FOR THE SAME REASONS WE WERE SAYING BEFORE THAT IT COULD END PRETTY QUICKLY AND THERE'S NOT REALLY ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPACT FROM A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE.

THE LONGER THIS GOES, THE MORE DIFFICULT IT IS TO IGNORE.

INFLATION HAS BEEN ABOVE TARGET FOR FIVE YEARS NOW.

THE HURDLE FOR SHIFTING TO MORE HAWKISH RESPONSES, FOR US, WE SEE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF HIKES IN THE U.K.

THAN IN THE U.S. BECAUSE THERE IS STICKIER INFLATION IN THE U.K. FOR THE FED, WE CAME INTO THIS YEAR EXPECTING TWO RATE CUTS AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.

IF THINGS PROGRESS IN A NEGATIVE WAY, WE WOULD PROBABLY TAKE THOSE RATE CUTS OFF OF THE FORECAST. FOR THE U.S., MAY BE SHIFTING TO RATE HIKES IS MORE CHALLENGING.

IT IS AN EASIER THING TO SEE FOR THE ECB END BANK.

-- FOR THE ECB AND BANK OF ENGLAND. VONNIE:

THAT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS? DONALD TRUMP STILL CALLING FOR A CUT AND WE KNOW THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS ON THE FOMC BOARD RIGHT NOW. WHAT IS NEXT WEEK'S MEETING GOING TO LOOK LIKE? SEEMA: NEXT WEEK'S MEETING, I THINK THEY WILL STICK TO THE SCRIPT IN TERMS OF NOTING INFLATION PRESSURES ARE STILL THERE, STILL VERY MUCH PRESENT,

ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN MAY BE DECLINING IN SOME REGARD.

THE LABOR MARKET IS SHOWING CONCERNING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS.

THE INTERESTING PART WILL BE FOR JEROME POWELL WHAT HAPPENS IN THE PRESS CONFERENCE, THE QUESTIONS HE WILL BE ASKED.

THEY ARE LIKELY TO SAY THAT AT THIS STAGE THE FEDERAL RESERVE ALMOST HAS TO LOOK THROUGH SUPPLY DRIVEN -- VONNIE: HE CANNOT BRING BACK THE WORD TRANSITORY. SEEMA:

ALSO, IF THIS WERE TO BE SUSTAINED THIS CREATES A BIGGER DILEMMA FOR CENTRAL BANKS, NOT JUST THE FED BUT FOR SO MANY CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD. VONNIE:

WONDERFUL TO HAVE YOU IN PERSON IN LONDON.

SEEMA SHAH OF PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT.

LET'S TAKE A DEEPER LOOK AT OIL IN DUBAI WITH ANTHONY DIPAOLA.

NOTHING MUCH CHANGING WHEN IT COMES TO MARITIME SAFETY.

PROMISES OF TANKER ESCORTS AND MAYBE EVEN MINES LAID.

WHAT IS THE LATEST FROM THE REGION WE KNOW FOR SURE?

ANTHONY: HI, GOOD MORNING. THE ONLY THING WE KNOW FOR SURE IS THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS CLOSED AND THAT IS PUSHING OIL UP TO AROUND THE $100 A BARREL LEVEL.

IT'S INTERESTING TO HEAR THE COMMENTS FROM YOUR GUESTS.

SEEMA TALKING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR OIL MOVING HIGHER IF THE MARKET BECOMES A LITTLE DESENSITIZE TO SOME OF THE RISKS.

PERHAPS IS LOOKING TO A QUICK END TO THE CRISIS IN THE GULF AND THE CLOSURE OF HORMUZ. WE HAVE HEARD SOME COMMENTS RECENTLY, AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY FROM THE U.S.

ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT, TALKING ABOUT A NUMBER OF WEEKS FOR THE CONTINUED CLOSURE. THAT'S A RISK.

WE'VE HEARD THAT THE LONGER IT GOES ON THE MORE RISK THERE IS FOR EQUIPMENT OR OIL FIELDS THAT ARE SHUT DOWN TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL DAMAGE, BECAUSE OIL FIELDS CAN LOSE PRESSURE INTO BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO BRING THEM BACK.

THAT IS A LONGER RAMP UP TO GET US BACK TO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE.

LET'S NOT FORGET THAT ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE CONTINUES TO BE TARGETED. WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY MAJOR

TARGETED. WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY MAJOR DAMAGE YET, BUT THAT REMAINS A RISK.

THAT SEEMS TO FEED INTO SOME OF THE COMPLACENCY IN THE MARKET THAT WE HAVEN'T YET SEEN ANY FACILITIES OR FIELDS DAMAGED AT THAT WOULD IMPEDE THEIR COMING BACK IF HORMUZ DOES REOPEN, BUT AT THE MOMENT WE DON'T HAVE THAT ACCESS TO A MAJOR QUANTITY

OF OIL THAT IS NEEDED IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS, WHOSE -- GLOBAL MARKETS VONNIE. VONNIE:

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SEEMS TO THINK THERE ARE MECHANISMS IT CAN USE TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BUT IS THERE ANY OPEN STRAIT WITHOUT IRAN'S SAY-SO? ANTHONY:

THIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN A SUBJECT OF MILITARY HYPOTHESIS, OF GAMING THINGS OUT. THE THOUGHT HAS BEEN THAT THE U.S. NAVY WOULD BE ABLE TO OPEN HORMUZ ONLY AFTER A FEW HOURS,

U.S. NAVY WOULD BE ABLE TO OPEN HORMUZ ONLY AFTER A FEW HOURS, OR MAXIMUM A FEW DAYS.

NOW WE ARE SEEING WITH REALLY LITTLE EXPENDITURE OF HARDWARE FROM THE IRANIAN SIDE, IT'S MORE THE THREAT OF HITTING VESSELS GOING THROUGH HORMUZ THAT HAS STOPPED VESSELS FROM GOING. VESSELS HAVE SEEN A DANGER

GOING. VESSELS HAVE SEEN A DANGER THERE. WE HAVE SEEN VESSELS HIT IN THE

THERE. WE HAVE SEEN VESSELS HIT IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE CONFLICT IN AND AROUND THE HORMUZ AREA.

NOT VESSELS THAT WERE ACTIVELY TRANSITING.

SINCE THEN WE HAVE SEEN VESSELS HIT ACROSS THE GULF.

OWNERS, SHIPPERS, TRADERS ARE SEEING THE RISK SAYING WE ARE NOT GOING TO GO THROUGH. IT'S TOO RISKY.

THERE'S TOO MUCH OF A RISK AND THEY ARE NOT GOING TO TAKE THAT.

WITHOUT A MAJOR FLOTILLA OF VESSELS, WITHOUT OBVIOUSLY MINING THE STRAITS. WE HAVE HER DISCUSSION ABOUT THAT AND ASSESSMENTS FROM THE U.S. AND U.K.

MILITARY -- WE HAVE HEARD DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THAT AND ASSESSMENTS FROM THE U.S. AND THE U.K.

MILITARY, BUT WITHOUT CLARITY OF WHAT THE IRAN MILITARY IS DOING THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SHUT THE STRAIT WITH MISSILES, SHIP MINES, SMALL VESSELS APPROACHING OTHER VESSELS, AND THAT HAD ENOUGH OF AN AFFECTED CHILL ANYONE'S DESIRE TO CROSS THROUGH AND THAT HAS CHOKED OFF ALL THE TRANSITS.

IT DOESN'T SEEM THERE IS AN EASY SOLUTION TO GETTING THAT REOPENED. AT LEAST NOT WHILE THE CONFLICT

REOPENED. AT LEAST NOT WHILE THE CONFLICT IS ONGOING, VONNIE. VONNIE:

FANTASTIC CONTEXT FROM BLOOMBERG ANTHONY DIPAOLA. TURNING ON THE TERMINAL, THE

DIPAOLA. TURNING ON THE TERMINAL, THE U.K. ECONOMY UNEXPECTEDLY STALLED IN

U.K. ECONOMY UNEXPECTEDLY STALLED IN JANUARY AND GDP WAS UNCHANGED AFTER GROWING .1%.

THE SERVICES SECTOR STAGNATED. MANUFACTURING AND CONSTRUCTION GREW SLIGHTLY.

HONG KONG IS CRACKING DOWN ON A SLOPPY LISTING APPLICATION, EXPANDING THE NAME AND SHAME REGIME.

PROFESSIONAL PARTIES INVOLVED IN A DEAL THAT INCLUDES AUDITORS TOO WILL BE PUBLICLY IDENTIFIED IF AN APPLICATION IS REJECTED FOR NOT BEING SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLETE.

THE PLAN AIMS TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF IPO'S IN THE CITY.

HOLLYWOOD ENTERS OSCAR'S WEEKEND AS THE FILM INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE IS A CRISIS. THE INDUSTRY IS FACING TENS OF THOUSANDS OF LAYOFFS, DECLINING ATTENDANCE IN THEATERS, AND FEARS THAT AI WILL REPLACE TRADITIONAL MOVIEMAKING.

THE ACADEMY WILL HAND OUT ITS HIGHEST AWARDS TO FILMS AND FILMMAKERS THIS SUNDAY. COMING UP, MORE TRADE PROBES.

MORE ON THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S CONTINUED EFFORTS TO REVIVE ITS TARIFF AGENDA. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

VONNIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF LOOKING LIVE AT THE PRINCIPAL ROOM. COMING UP ON OPEN INTEREST, AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAEL O'SULLIVAN, THE BURLINGTON CEO.

THAT IS AT 10:30 NEW YORK, TWO: 30 IN LONDON. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

VONNIE: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF, I AM VONNIE QUINN IN LONDON. U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE JAMIESON GREER INITIATING A SECOND ROUND OF TRADE PROBES INTO 60 ECONOMIES.

WHETHER THE LABOR ACT POLICIES AND PRACTICES ARE UNREASONABLE OR DISCRIMINATORY IN QUESTION. THE BURDEN ON U.S.

COMMERCE IS ALSO UNDER QUESTION. JOINING US FROM WASHINGTON IS JONATHAN TAMARI FROM BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT.

HOW QUICKLY CAN THESE INVESTIGATIONS PROCEED?

JONATHAN: THE GOAL OF THE ADMINISTRATION IS TO HAVE THIS WRAPPED UP IN JULY WHICH IS WHEN THE CURRENT TARIFFS THAT THE PRESIDENT IMPOSED AFTER THE SUPREME COURT DECISION WILL EXPIRE. THEY ARE BASICALLY TRYING TO PIECE BACK TOGETHER THE REGIME THAT WAS STRUCK DOWN BY THE SUPREME COURT. THE TEMPORARY TARIFFS CAN LAST

SUPREME COURT. THE TEMPORARY TARIFFS CAN LAST FOR A FEW MORE MONTHS WITHOUT APPROVAL FROM CONGRESS.

THE IDEA IS THAT THESE INVESTIGATIONS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL TARIFFS THAT REPLACE THE TEMPORARY ONES IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. VONNIE:

RIGHT NOW. VONNIE: JONATHAN, IT COULD BE SEVERAL MONTHS, RIGHT?

WE MAY NOT SEE THESE TARIFFS GO ON UNTIL AT LEAST THE SUMMER TIME? JONATHAN: IN THE MEANTIME THE PRESIDENT

TIME? JONATHAN: IN THE MEANTIME THE PRESIDENT DOES HAVE SOME TEMPORARY POWERS THAT HE HAS RE-IMPOSED TARIFFS FOR PEER INVESTIGATION WILL PLAY OUT FOR A FEW MONTHS.

THE IDEA FROM THE ADMINISTRATION IS THAT THEY WILL HAVE ONE SET ROLL OFF AND ANOTHER SET ROLL ON, BECAUSE THE ORIGINAL TARIFFS THE PRESIDENT IMPOSED WHERE WIPED OUT. BUT HE'S NOT BACKING AWAY FROM

OUT. BUT HE'S NOT BACKING AWAY FROM THE IDEA THAT HE IS IMPOSING WIDESPREAD TARIFFS ON AS MANY DIFFERENT COUNTRIES, JUST TRYING TO FIND DIFFERENT MECHANISMS TO DO IT NOW THAT HIS ORIGINAL METHOD WAS DEEMED ILLEGAL. VONNIE:

ILLEGAL. VONNIE: JUST ON IRAN, JONATHAN, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND PRESIDENT TRUMP HIMSELF MORNING AROUND TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. WE ARE ALREADY HITTING THE TWO

NEXT. WE ARE ALREADY HITTING THE TWO WEEK MARK. DOES HE HAVE A PLAN TO BRING

WEEK MARK. DOES HE HAVE A PLAN TO BRING THIS TO A CONCLUSION? JONATHAN: THAT HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST QUESTION SINCE THIS BEGAN. IF YOU LISTEN TO HIS RHETORIC, IT HAS CHANGED FROM DAY TO DAY, SOMETIMES OUR TO OUR ABOUT THIS BEING CLOSE TO AN END OR WE CAN GO AS LONG AS WE WANT, LONG

TIME IF WE NEED TO.

AT TIMES HE WOULD SAY A -- AT TIMES HE WOULD SAY WE HAVE ACCOMPLISHED OUR CHAPTERS AND THEN THERE IS A LOT WE WANT TO ACHIEVE. IT IS WHAT HE WANTS TO SEE

ACHIEVE. IT IS WHAT HE WANTS TO SEE HAPPEN TO DECIDE THE U.S. ACHIEVED ENOUGH AND WANTS TO END THESE HOSTILITIES. I DON'T AGREE HAVE A LOT OF CLARITY AND IT CAN CHANGE FROM HOUR TO HOUR TO BE HONEST. VONNIE:

THE TREASURY HAS GIVEN THE GREEN LIGHT FOR MORE RUSSIAN OIL. THE TREASURY SECRETARY IT'S NOT

OIL. THE TREASURY SECRETARY IT'S NOT GOING TO FILL OF RUSSIAN COFFERS , BUT IT CAN'T HURT?

JONATHAN: IT SHOWS HOW THE CONFLICT IN IRAN IS RUNNING CROSS CURRENT TO OTHER ADMINISTRATION PRIORITIES INCLUDING APPLYING PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO INTO THE WAR IN UKRAINE. IT'S A SHORT-TERM WAIVER.

IT WILL APPLY FOR ABOUT A MONTH. IT WON'T MAKE A HUMONGOUS DENT IN THE MARKET. MAY BE A FEW DAYS OF FULL EXPORTS BEING LOST CAN BE REPLACED.

IT IS NOT A MASSIVE CHANGE, BUT IT SHOWS THE TENSION IN THE ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES, AND AS YOU POINT OUT IT WILL HELP RUSSIA AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WITH SOME OF ITS OIL SALES. VONNIE:

THANK YOU SO MUCH. JONATHAN TO MARY OF BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT. I WANT TO MENTION THAT WE ARE

GOVERNMENT. I WANT TO MENTION THAT WE ARE JUST GETTING CONFIRMATION THAT FOUR HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED DECEASED IN THE LOSS OF THE REFUELING AIRCRAFT, THE KC 135 OVER IRAQ.

FOUR CONFIRMED DECEASED IN THE REFUELING AIRCRAFT. THE U.S.

SAYS IT'S INVESTIGATING THE INCIDENT.

THE CIRCUMSTANCES ARE UNDER PROBE.

AGAIN, REITERATING THAT IT WASN'T HOSTILE NOR FRIENDLY FIRE.

ONE STOCK WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON IS ADOBE WITH SHARES EXTENDING THEIR SON DUCKWORTH CEO ANNOUNCED PLANS TO RETIRE AFTER 18 YEARS -- EXTENDING THEIR -- JOINING US IS TOM MACKENZIE. DIFFICULT FOR ADOBE THIS

MACKENZIE. DIFFICULT FOR ADOBE THIS QUARTER. TOM: THE BACKDROP IS THAT ADOBE HAS

QUARTER. TOM: THE BACKDROP IS THAT ADOBE HAS BECOME A POSTER CHILD OF SCRUTINY OVER A SOFTWARE COMPANY THAT WILL NEED TO ADAPT TO THIS NEW AI WORLD.

INVESTOR QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH IN TERMS OF EMBEDDING AI SOLUTIONS AND HOW VULNERABLE THEY ARE, HOW DEFENSIBLE THE BUSINESS IS PR THIS QUARTER RESULTS WERE PRETTY SOLID.

THEY CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR FORECAST FOR THE YEAR, AI MONETIZATION IMPROVED. THE CEO AFTER 18 YEARS AT THE

MONETIZATION IMPROVED. THE CEO AFTER 18 YEARS AT THE HELM WOULD BE STEPPING DOWN. THIS IS SHANTANU NARAYEN.

CITI ANALYSTS PUT OUT A NOTE SAYING THAT THE STEPPING DOWN OF THE CEO AT THIS POINT "AT ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY AT A DELICATE MOMENT IN THE STORY." DETAIL ON THE STORY, BECAUSE I HAVE BEEN SPEAKING WITH THE CEO OF A VIBE CODING PLATFORM.

YOU OR I OR ANYONE WHO DOESN'T HAVE CODING SKILLS, IT ALLOWS US TO BUILD A WEBSITE. THIS IS THE KIND OF COMPANY THAT INVESTORS .24 DISRUPTION OF LEGACY NAMES LIKE ADOBE.

THAT INVESTORS .24 DISRUPTION OF LEGACY NAMES LIKE ADOBE.

LISTEN TO WHAT THE CEO OF LOVABLE HAD TO SAY.

>> I DON'T THINK THEY'RE GOING TO DIE.

I THINK MANY OF THEM MIGHT INNOVATE, WHICH IS USUALLY WHAT HAPPENS UNDER PRESSURE. THAT'S A GOOD THING.

COMPETITION AND NEW CHANGES MAKE COMPANIES EVOLVE, INNOVATE, AND CREATE MORE VALUE IN THE END.

HOW MUCH OF THAT THEY CAN CAPTURE IN TERMS OF PROFIT IF THEY DO INNOVATE THROUGH THIS PHASE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE AMOUNT OF PROFITS FROM THESE COMPANIES CONTINUE TO DECLINE. TOM:

I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE AMOUNT OF PROFITS FROM THESE COMPANIES CONTINUE TO DECLINE. ADOBE HASN'T SEEN A DECLINE OF PROFITS, EARNINGS WERE STABLE, BUT IT'S PART OF THE SAASPOCALYPSE STORY AND SCRUTINY AND CONCERN FROM INVESTORS. NOW YOU HAVE A CHANGE WITH THE

INVESTORS. NOW YOU HAVE A CHANGE WITH THE CEO. THAT'S THE VIEW OF ONE OF THE

CEO. THAT'S THE VIEW OF ONE OF THE KEY DISRUPTORS IN THE SPACE, LOVABLE. VONNIE:

HE STEERED THE COMPANY FOR 18 YEARS, A LONG TIME.

META IS DELAYING THE ROLLOUT OF SOMETHING.

WHEN IS THAT HAPPENED AT META BEFORE? JUST KIDDING. TOM:

MARK ZUCKERBERG IS STILL NOT WINNING IN BUILDING FRONT TIER MODELS IN AI DESPITE HOW MUCH HE SPENT ON TALENT AND SPENT OVER $14 MILLION TO SCALE AI AND THAT HE TOOK ON THIS WONDER KID THAT LEAD PROSPECTS FOR THEM.

THEY WERE MEANT TO COME OUT WITH THE LATEST MODEL IN MARCH.

THE NEW YORK TIMES IS REPORTING THAT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MAY BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT YET COMPETING IN GETTING UP TO THE SAME LEVEL AS GEMINI, ALPHABET, OPENAI.

INTERESTINGLY FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES REPORT AS WELL, SUGGESTIONS THAT META HAS CONSIDERED LICENSING GEMINI AI TO POWER META'S PRODUCTS. THAT SOUNDS LIKE A DESPERATE MOVE.

THEY HAVEN'T GOT THERE YET BUT THE FACT THAT THEY DISCUSSED THAT WILL BE A RED FLAG. OTHERS SAY THAT META HAS TIME TO CATCH UP. THEY ARE PRODUCING FOUNDATION MODELS, INCLUDING THIS ONE, THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, IS JUST NOT UP THERE WITH THE BEST ONE YET.

IT'S A CHALLENGE GIVEN HOW MUCH THEY HAVE SPENT AND THE COMMITMENTS OF THIS YEAR ALONE. VONNIE:

IT WAS SUPPOSED TO COME OUT THIS MONTH AND NOW WILL BE AT LEAST ME. TOM MACKENZIE, THANK YOU SO

LEAST ME. TOM MACKENZIE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. ON HIS NEXT EPISODE HE WILL

MUCH. ON HIS NEXT EPISODE HE WILL TAKE A DEEP DIVE INTO THE SHIP MAKE HER ARM ON APRIL 10.

YOU CAN WATCH IT ON BLOOMBERG TV, THE TERMINAL, AND YOUTUBE.COM, AND OUR VIDEO HUB AT BLOOMBERG.COM/VIDEO.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

VONNIE: BECAUSE OF DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME WE WILL BE BACK ON BRIEF ON MARCH 30.