The AI Collapse Is MUCH Worse Than You Think

What's up, guys? It's Graeme here. And

if you have any money in the markets whatsoever, you're going to want to hear this. Apparently, the stock market is

this. Apparently, the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026. And

then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline. Unemployment is going to rise above 10%. Trillions of wealth is going to be wiped out in less than 2

years. And all of those safe mortgages

years. And all of those safe mortgages will finally start falling into foreclosure. How? Well, Satrini Research

foreclosure. How? Well, Satrini Research just revealed what they believe is a realistic warning for our economy over these next few years. And I have to say it is shocking. Not just because it

sounds dramatic, but because the logic is incredibly convincing. That's why we need to talk about exactly what's happening, why some of the smartest people in the world believe that this has already begun to play out, how you

could prepare today, and whether or not this is something to be worried about.

Because I got to say, the real risk isn't the market crash we see coming.

It's that pressure builds quietly beneath the surface that nobody realizes until eventually something breaks.

Although, before we start, if you appreciate videos like this where I've spent the entire day reading through dozens of articles like this, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribed if you haven't done

that already. Yes, this is probably my

that already. Yes, this is probably my 900th time asking, and I am tired of it, too. But it does continue to help out

too. But it does continue to help out the YouTube algorithm. And as a thank you for doing that, as promised, here's a picture of an ant. So, thanks so much and also big thank you to Gemini for sponsoring this video, but more on that later. All right, so to bring you up to

later. All right, so to bring you up to speed, all of this starts with the most controversial article that I have ever discussed, appropriately titled the 2028 global intelligence crisis. Look, it's

no surprise so far, AI has helped push the stock market higher. Without it, we might already be in a recession, and it's been one of the biggest drivers of growth across the entire economy. But

what if we're wrong? What if it's all smoke and mirrors designed to look good on paper while quietly extracting the wealth of everyday Americans? Well,

that's the entire theory behind this paper and it's quite interesting. The

theory is that AI continues getting insanely good and extremely proficient.

All of a sudden, companies use it to replace their white collar workers like consultants, financial analysts, software engineers, the people who make up 50% of US employment and drive about

75% of all discretionary spending. So

what happens next? Well, those workers lose their jobs or see massive pay cuts.

They stop spending money. Businesses see

revenue decline. This causes companies to invest even more in AI to cut their costs further. More layoffs repeat. We

costs further. More layoffs repeat. We

see less spending from workers and then it just spirals. So in terms of how this plays out and whether or not this could actually happen in the next few years, Satrini breaks it down into five phases

with the first being the software collapse. At this point, AI coding gets

collapse. At this point, AI coding gets so incredibly good that a single developer could replicate a mid-market SAS product in weeks. So, when a business is renewing a $500,000 annual

software package, we'll start to ask themselves, "What if we just built this ourselves to save the money?" This is going to start becoming even more apparent when we see phase 2, zero

friction. Pretty soon, AI agents will be

friction. Pretty soon, AI agents will be able to handle everything. I'm talking

shopping, insurance renewals, travel booking, tax prep, financial advice, even real estate transactions. From that

point onwards, commissions will be reduced from 2 and a half% down to under 1%. And agents will start routing

1%. And agents will start routing payments through stable coins instead of credit cards. After all, why would a

credit cards. After all, why would a machine pay a 2 to 3% interchange fee when they could settle the transaction in seconds for a fraction of a penny?

This leads to phase three, the doom spiral. This, unfortunately, according

spiral. This, unfortunately, according to them, is where things get really ugly because displaced white collar workers don't just disappear. Instead, the

Salesforce manager making $180,000 loses his job and starts working for Uber at $45,000. From there, multiply that by

$45,000. From there, multiply that by hundreds of thousands of workers, and all of a sudden, you have a flood of highly qualified people entering the jobs market, competing with one another,

pushing down wages for everybody. Like

keep in mind the top 10% of earners drive more than 50% of all consumer spending in the US. So when those people lose their jobs or see a 50% haircut in

income, spending drops dramatically.

That's why in Q2 of 2027, in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession. And this means we'll see

recession. And this means we'll see phase 4, a private credit collapse. Now,

for anyone who's not been following this, more than $2 and a half trillion dollars has been invested in software priced at valuations that assume that revenue never goes down. Like, take

Zenesk as an example. It was taken private for $10.2 billion, backed by a $5 billion loan. However, once AI started replicating customer service without any humans, their entire

business model started becoming obsolete. However, there is a bit of a

obsolete. However, there is a bit of a twist. These companies didn't raise

twist. These companies didn't raise money from private investors.

Instead, they bought life insurance companies to fund their deals. So, this

impacts everyday retirement accounts, annuities, pensions, you name it. All

wrapped their money into these deals that are now under pressure. And if that continues and worsens, we'll finally see phase 5. The mortgage market starts to

phase 5. The mortgage market starts to crack. The fact is, when white collar

crack. The fact is, when white collar workers see a reduction of income or lose their job, they scale back. If they

have to sell their home and everyone has to sell at the exact same time, home prices begin to fall. If they owe more on the home than what the home is worth, they end up going into foreclosure if

they're not able to bridge the gap. And

if that sounds crazy, here's a line that really stuck out to me. In 2008, the loans were bad on day one. In 2028, the loans were good on day one. The world

just changed after the loans were written. Anyway, this scenario ends with

written. Anyway, this scenario ends with the S&P 500 falling 38% to roughly 3500, a level that we've not seen since before Chat GBT launched. Home prices fall in

all major metros. And the scariest part is that some of the world's smartest people already believe that some of this has begun to happen today. So, in terms of what this means for you and how this

might realistically play out, here's what you came for. Although, before we go into that, I got to say it's worth zooming out and taking a look at what's happening throughout the markets because nothing moves in a straight line

anymore. On top of that, your cash is

anymore. On top of that, your cash is losing purchasing power. Prices are

going up, and if you don't take steps to get ahead of this, you're going to fall behind. That's why I think everyone

behind. That's why I think everyone should at least be trying to optimize their everyday spending without changing their lifestyle or trying to outsmart the market. And one of the ways I do

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with the link down below. Thank you so much and now let's get back to the video. All right. Now, before we go over

video. All right. Now, before we go over the counter arguments to this entire doomsday scenario and what you could do about it, I want to be fair because there are real data points today that suggest that all of this could actually

be happening. For example, the CEO of

be happening. For example, the CEO of Anthropic just went on record as saying that AI could wipe out nearly half of all entry-level white collar jobs. Ford

believes that employment will nose dive.

Salesforce's CEO claimed that AI is already performing up to 50% of the company's workload. And JP Morgan

company's workload. And JP Morgan managers have literally been told to avoid hiring people as the firm deploys AI across its businesses. Not to

mention, Microsoft's AI chief says he gives it 18 months for all white collar work to be automated. Now, yes, this does sound a bit extreme, but when the head of AI at one of the world's most

valuable companies in the world says this, it's worth paying attention to.

Now, in addition to that, in terms of the actual data, Stanford Labs found that entry-level hiring has already dropped 13%. Goldman Sachs estimates

dropped 13%. Goldman Sachs estimates that 6 to 7% of US workers could lose their jobs because of AI. And in 2025 alone, nearly 55,000 job cuts were

directly attributed to automation, not including the 5 million white collar jobs facing what Microsoft calls extinction. Separately, the private

extinction. Separately, the private credit risk is also very real. Shadow

defaults are rising, and none of this has been stress tested in a market that doesn't constantly grow. However, it is important to keep in mind that a compelling narrative is not the same thing as an accurate prediction. And

despite everything that we've just covered, there's another scenario that says the exact opposite is going to happen. And in fact, we are going to see

happen. And in fact, we are going to see instead infinite abundance. So, here's

the thing. Within a few hours of that article going live, a counterpiece was published called the 2028 global intelligence boom, which was in the exact same format, but with the

completely opposite conclusion. And when

I went through it, they made some very interesting points. First, the Doomsday

interesting points. First, the Doomsday article assumes that every domino falls exactly in the right way without any adaptive response whatsoever. And

throughout history, this just hasn't been true. In fact, we could prove it

been true. In fact, we could prove it because similar predictions have been made throughout history. And so far, they've been incorrect. For example, in 1964, a group of experts told President

Johnson that automation would create permanent mass unemployment. Congress

literally created a national commission to study it. And as you would guess, they found that technology eliminates jobs, not work. Unemployment at that time was 5 a 12% and by the late 1960s

it had fallen to the 4% range. So it

literally created more jobs, not less.

Then of course we had the dot era. The

internet was supposed to dismantle everything. And to a certain degree,

everything. And to a certain degree, they were right. Travel agent deployment did fall 70%. Newspaper ad revenue dropped 80%. But the timeline was 15 to

dropped 80%. But the timeline was 15 to 25 years, not 2 to 3 years. From there,

we could also look at crypto in 2021. It

was supposed to replace money, banks.

Instead, banks just ended up adopting it. From my perspective, the pattern is

it. From my perspective, the pattern is always the same. That technology shows up and then all of a sudden narratives run wild. All of these models just

run wild. All of these models just assume that nobody adapts, nobody competes, and nobody innovates. People

just lose their jobs and sit back and do nothing. Instead, history shows that

nothing. Instead, history shows that yes, some areas completely wiped out, but it's usually not overnight and it takes a lot longer than people expect.

The second, and this is a big point that they brought up, is that when AI makes something cheaper, the money doesn't disappear. It usually goes back to

disappear. It usually goes back to consumers. For instance, the average

consumers. For instance, the average American household spends about $18 to 12,000 a year on services whose value is basically just navigating complexity. If

AI is able to lower those costs by 40 to 70% all of a sudden, that's a $4 to7,000 raise for the average person tax-free without doing anything else on their

end. Third, the Catrini piece also

end. Third, the Catrini piece also assumes that people just lose their jobs and then do nothing and doesn't account for the people who then use the AI to create even bigger or better opportunities. Like from my perspective,

opportunities. Like from my perspective, the cost of starting a business has already fallen about 70 to 90%. like you

today could go and create an e-commerce business or anything that you could think of for practically free. And

fourth, when you actually go and look at the data, mass unemployments aren't quite happening. Like even a Yale budget

quite happening. Like even a Yale budget study found that there's been no meaningful rise in unemployment across AI exposed occupations. And finally,

fifth, Sam Alman said it himself that a lot of the layoffs attributed to AI are simply AI washing where basically companies are blaming AI for layoffs that would have occurred anyway, and AI

is simply the scapegoat to make it sound more legitimate. That's why in terms of

more legitimate. That's why in terms of what I think and what you could actually do about this, here's what you came for.

Personally, this piece is one of the most thoughtprovoking articles that I have read in a very long time. But it

also assumes that every single if then then that scenario happens in the exact right order for perfect doomsday without any intervention whatsoever which

historically is pretty unlikely. The

fact is people adapt, markets adjust, the government steps in, and new industries are created that we haven't even thought about yet. So in terms of what the average person could actually

do about this, here's what I think. One,

diversify your income. If a 100% of your income is derived from white collar work that involves repetitive tasks, most likely you should be looking for something additional beyond that today,

not tomorrow. Because the fact is, if

not tomorrow. Because the fact is, if you begin to use and leverage AI, make it work for you. Otherwise, it's going to be competition. Two, learn the tools.

The people who will do best in this transition are going to be using AI to their advantage. And the people who

their advantage. And the people who ignore it are going to be the ones that fall behind and later have to do it because they have no other choice. Plus,

I got to say there are so many resources out there to get started for free and I'll link a few of them down below in the description as a nice gesture that you can just watch these things and

you're good. Three, keep investing. For

you're good. Three, keep investing. For

myself, I literally buy every single morning before I even get out of bed. I

check the markets. I dollar cost average. It's become a part of my

average. It's become a part of my routine at this point. On top of that, so far the market has survived every technological revolution, every recession, every crisis in history. Just

stay out of margin. Don't overlever

yourself or make stupid risky bets going all in on like one thing. Don't do that.

Instead, you should really just diversify across as many different sectors as possible and invest money that you preferably don't need for at least the next 5 to seven years. Four,

build an emergency fund. Yes, I know I mention this every single video. You

don't think I'm sick of it, too. It's

just the thing is like it makes the most sense. Save up six months of emergency

sense. Save up six months of emergency funds at all times that you could rely on if you absolutely need to. There's no

reason not to do this. And I'll just keep saying it until eventually I don't need to say it anymore, but I still need to say it because I guarantee someone's watching out there who hasn't done this yet. Please do it. Finally, five. Don't

yet. Please do it. Finally, five. Don't

panic. Yes, the S&P 500 is near all-time highs. The economy is still growing.

highs. The economy is still growing.

Unemployment is still low. Selling

everything because you read a scary article has been the wrong moment to sell so far every single time in history. This has been the case in 1987,

history. This has been the case in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020. These ended up being years of insane profits. On top of that, the Centrini piece ends with the canary

is still alive. And I think that's exactly right. In this case, our job is

exactly right. In this case, our job is to pay attention to what's going on and then you can make a plan for a better move ahead of time, like hitting the like button and subscribing if you haven't done that already. Oh, and also

just keep in mind that I am a random dude in a half-converted garage making YouTube videos and I have no idea what I am talking about. So, if you agree or disagree with me, let me know down below

in the comments and I will do my best to read and reply to as many of you as I can. Thank you so much and until next

can. Thank you so much and until next