The AI Super-Cycle Has Begun — You Have 1 Year To Get UNFATHOMABLY RICH! | Chris Camillo

The $20,000 that I initially invested has generated roughly $80 million of returns over the past 17 18 years. If

you're not willing to take real risk, you're simply never going to get rich quick.

>> What do you know that others don't about AI?

>> So many people misunderstand what AI actually is, but I've never felt more confident about the AI trade than I do today. I think the next billiondoll

do today. I think the next billiondoll company can be built by a single person without any employees. This is the first time where the future is not necessarily

owned by those with the most money or the best education. It's owned by anyone that's willing to adopt quickly and create. I'm calling it like the great

create. I'm calling it like the great reset.

>> So then what advice would you give our viewers so they can capitalize on this information? This is a very different

information? This is a very different gold rush for this generation. The

window is very small. So if you're young and you've been complaining because you did not have any opportunity, you just got it.

>> Chris Camilillo, thank you so much for coming on the Ice Coffee Hour.

>> Yeah, happy to be back, guys. In mid-

November, we had you on the podcast and that specific day, one of your all-time favorite stocks was tanking and you walked in and you cooly said, "I just bought another million bucks today while

I was absolutely panicking because I was losing a lot of money." And then that exact stock plummeted even further. It

went down from 100 that day to $70 where you took a levered position in the stock and everyone was calling you insane like they usually do. And then of course, like you usually are, you were

absolutely right because now it's at an all-time high of around $150 a share. So

you basically doubled your money. Had

you guys watched that episode three months ago, you would be up 50% on that one stock that we discussed that episode.

>> They would also be up over 200% on your initial call of Robin Hood when it was $38 a share. And you said your one regret was not having more money to invest in more Robin Hood.

>> Yeah, that's all true. Um,

I'm fully margined, so there's no more money left to invest at this point.

>> Well, the reason why we wanted to bring you on is because you were absolutely correct with all these predictions and also the market is at a very scary place right now. It does not seem like a

right now. It does not seem like a confident market. Like every day it's a

confident market. Like every day it's a coin toss up or down and it's usually by quite a big amount. There doesn't seem to be any consistency in the market either. It also seems like the fear

either. It also seems like the fear index is at a very strong fear level even though we're only like 1% from all-time highs.

>> So, the market hates unknowns. We know

that, right? Like more than anything else, the market does not know how to handle unknowns. And there's never been a

unknowns. And there's never been a larger unknown in the history of the market in our lifetime than artificial intelligence.

It really doesn't matter how pedigreed you are, uh how much money you manage. I

don't care uh if you're at the top of the food chain in Silicon Valley in technology. Everybody has differing

technology. Everybody has differing opinions on how this is going to play out and that's a scary place to be. So,

it does make sense that we're having this volatility. However, I think

this volatility. However, I think there's an opportunity for investors to get to the ground truth. Maybe not in

terms of what's going to happen in 10 years, but in terms of what's happening right now because there's so much noise in the market and so much confusion that

people are just panicking. And the

reality is there's a fairly uh good amount of transparency as to what's happening right now with artificial intelligence if you know where to look

and you're willing to actually spend the time cutting through the noise and and finding that ground truth.

>> So while everyone is absolutely panicking, you're digging your heels in.

And I'm curious, what do you know that others don't about AI? Yeah, I I've never felt more confident about the AI trade than I do today. And most of that

is based on what I've seen surface over the last, I would say, you know, 2 weeks. You guys are probably familiar

weeks. You guys are probably familiar with what's been happening with Agentic AI. Uh there's been some really big new

AI. Uh there's been some really big new products uh that have surfaced. Uh Open

Claw is is probably the biggest one. I'm

seeing things today that I didn't think I would see for at least another year.

And AI has started to accelerate rapidly in terms of its actual uh

integrated adoption and its use cases and its productive value uh inside of enterprise and small business and for

personal use. So, a lot of the question

personal use. So, a lot of the question marks that I think existed just a couple months ago are gone now as it relates to AI.

>> What was the biggest question that you think people had and what is the answer to that question?

>> Well, I I think the two biggest misunderstandings about AI. One is that we're in this bubble and everybody likes to relate it to the dotcom bubble which

I was intimately involved with. I was

young. Uh, I was living in LA working at a dot and I remember it like it was yesterday. But there's a very big

yesterday. But there's a very big difference between what unraveled in 1999 and 2000 and what's happening today in AI.

Back then, Wall Street and the world saw the future of what the internet could be and likely would be and all the dollars flowed very quickly into enterprise to

fund that. However, it didn't evolve

fund that. However, it didn't evolve quickly enough, right? So it took the internet like 15 years for us to start to see the type of productivity and the

type of efficiencies and the type of acceleration that we knew would be possible. Um the money was invested many

possible. Um the money was invested many years earlier and it just took too long to play out. So we weren't able to see the productivity increases. We weren't

able to see the stepups in revenue generation from internet companies quickly enough. And that I think is a

quickly enough. And that I think is a large part of what led to the dot boom busting.

>> Does it worry you though right now that the top 10% of households are responsible for 50% of the spending?

>> No, not at all. Um I think that's a totally separate issue. I I think you know the main difference that I'm discussing is AI has the opposite

problem of what happened during the dotcom boom in that the acceleration of enterprise adoption of artificial intelligence is moving too quickly. Now

that presents other issues like potentially, you know, the systematic destruction of humanity, which is a

possibility, like that's bad if it happens. Um, but I because it's moving

happens. Um, but I because it's moving so quickly, we're starting to see rapid adoption of massive amounts of productivity and efficiency in the

business world. Um, I've never seen

business world. Um, I've never seen anything like this in my life. I didn't

think it was possible. Okay, so all of the things that led to the.com bubble busting are actually happening but in the opposite way right now.

>> How could that be shared equally? And

how do you ensure that the top 1% don't get 99% of the productivity gains?

>> I can't. But that will always take care of itself. So the the issue that you're

of itself. So the the issue that you're surfacing is potentially very real but that always I think that has a way

of taking care of itself through politics through regulation through taxation.

Uh there are an infinite number of policies that we can adopt if if this plays out in that way. And my assumption

is that we will figure it out because if we don't figure it out, yes, we there will be people wanting to overthrow the government and nobody wins in that scenario, right? So, you just have to

scenario, right? So, you just have to assume that we'll figure it out. But I

think I think you're jumping way too far ahead.

>> The big issue that everyone has with AI that's causing the instability we're seeing right now is is it a bubble or is it not a bubble? Well, I don't think

it's a bubble because we are actually seeing the things that we need to see in terms of productivity and revenue generation uh to ensure that there's

value in the money that's being spent.

Now, we're always going to have a degree of creative destructionism, right? In

the.com bubble, it was pets.com. We're

going to have lots of pets.coms

of the artificial intelligence revolution, right? There will be a lot

revolution, right? There will be a lot of creative destructionism, a lot of rappers that will go bust, uh, a ton of overspending on the wrong companies.

That's natural. That's to be expected.

But I don't think we will see the type of massive bubble burst just based on this not being real enough quick enough.

But the other big issue and I think this is very real and very important and I think this is part of the reason why we

might ultimately have uh an issue with a very small concentration of companies and people uh getting the bulk of value out of this is because so many people

misunderstand uh what AI actually is. um they just think it's an autocomplete because quite honestly a couple years ago it kind of

was an autocomplete, right? That's not

what it is today. So if you were to give today's LLM or any of the agentic agents, any of the Agentic uh AIs that

are out there right now, a nuanced problem, uh a a a a a problem that it has never seen before. Okay, a problem that it can't just go dig up an answer

and serve it to you like Google would.

It's able to actually extract a solution to the problem without simply just pulling it from a data set today. And if

you want to understand how it's doing that, all you have to do is ask it, right? Say, "That's incredible. How did

right? Say, "That's incredible. How did

you actually solve that problem for me?"

And it will show you how the problem solved. Okay? Um, and we get really

solved. Okay? Um, and we get really confused because we think this is not really intelligence because it works a little bit different than the way our minds work. In fact, we don't fully

minds work. In fact, we don't fully understand the way our minds work and we still today don't fully grasp 100% of

how some of the AI is working today. But

this is critically important because, you know, a plane doesn't like flap its wings like a bird. We used to think to fly to gain altitude, you'd have to flap

wings, right? A plane doesn't do that.

wings, right? A plane doesn't do that.

But does a plane fly? Yes, of course it does. Um, you know, all compute, uh, all

does. Um, you know, all compute, uh, all technology is based on zeros and ones, very simple things, right? So when you have these very simple things and you

apply massive amounts of scale to simplicity, you get complexity, right? that is able to do things that you never thought

would be imaginable with what you started off with zeros and ones. Same

thing with human biology and living life with, you know, everything's an atom, right? Uh very simple, but the

right? Uh very simple, but the complexity once you bring massive amounts of scale to that very simple thing gives us all of life. Do we fully

comprehend how we get from here to here?

No. But it happens. And so a lot of the pattern recognition that artificial intelligence is based on seems like it's

fake to us, but it's very real and very important. Um, and

important. Um, and it we can't quite comprehend just how powerful that pattern recognition is going to be in a few years. So I think

once you understand those two things, you you you become a bit more relieved that the of the realness of this.

>> Yeah. Someone was showing me yesterday a YouTube channel that was completely AI.

And if I watched this channel, I'd have no idea it was AI. I was actually blown away by it. I was shocked. And so what I did right afterwards is I bought Claude,

whatever the most expensive one was.

>> Yeah. And I uploaded 25 of my scripts to Claude and I had it analyze every single stylistic approach that I've taken to videos, every nuance, every joke, everything. And it gave me a whole

everything. And it gave me a whole 20page report on exactly how I script my videos down to every detail. And just

for fun, I had uh another program do Deep Research. I put that into Claude

Deep Research. I put that into Claude and it gave me a script back in five minutes that was probably 90% as good as what I would do sitting there for eight

hours. Now, it's not perfect, but that

hours. Now, it's not perfect, but that to me was remarkable that this thing got it down 90% in a few minutes. Cuz I

remember a while ago, years ago, I put out a uh notice on my Instagram. I said

I'm looking to hire a script writer. Uh

and I was willing to pay $100,000 a year. Couldn't find anyone that did it

year. Couldn't find anyone that did it in my voice. And I figured I'm just going to do it myself. But this replaces what would have been $100,000 a year. If

someone if someone was able to do this 5 years ago, I would have paid them for it.

>> Would you say it's even better than what you would have likely been able to hire for $100,000 a year?

>> Yes.

>> Okay.

>> Oh, yeah. And it's nearly instantaneous.

>> Yeah. You just give it any topic 24/7 and it and it does a good job. Again,

it's not perfect. And if I were to read this off as my own words, it just didn't sound mean. and it sounded a little

sound mean. and it sounded a little robotic, but I'm sure at some point it'll get there. It

>> It's the worst it will ever be. I I'm

launching a fairly uh complex venture, and I had a 24-hour period to get a business brief to the management team of

a potential podcast host for this venture that would be the marketing arm.

And I got home late night after being out with my wife and some friends and I had been drinking and my head wasn't exactly straight. But I had to deliver

exactly straight. But I had to deliver this the next day. I went into a side bedroom and I just rambled off into chat GPT for 45 minutes. A bunch of weird random ideas of what I wanted to be in

this business brief. There were points where I didn't even speak for 2 and 1/2 minutes. And I I don't even know how it

minutes. And I I don't even know how it understood what I was saying. quite

honestly, it put out the equivalent of like a six- page McKenzie style brief. I

was actually stunned. Now, what's even more interesting is um things didn't work out with that podcast host and I sought out another podcast host that had

a completely different style. It would

have not only have changed the style of the podcast, but potentially the brand and the venture itself. So I asked uh

the AI if it was possible to kind of rethink the entire format of the podcast and the business and the venture and the marketing and the branding based on this

one other person that had a very unique style and what it did for me I it actually melted my mind. I couldn't

believe it. And not I mean it came up with an entirely new format and I didn't understand how it was able to assess the

nuances of this content creator style so much and how to bridge that into a very complicated business venture and still have it be seamless with the ventur's

ultimate objectives but completely change the venture positioning and the branding and the marketing and the podcast and how it would be filmed and

what the skits might look like. And it

did it in 30 seconds. And I said, I have to understand how you did this. Please,

Doc, I I want to know exactly how you did this because what you did does not seem possible to me for an AI. And it it wrote like a three-page brief showing me

all the steps that it took. And when I read this, I was like, honestly, guys, I it was one of those moments. Well, I could not believe what

moments. Well, I could not believe what I was reading. the the the degree that this use reasoning, okay, and nuance to

kind of figure out these problems and to map these problems and then figure out how to sew them together in in like this seamless new package for me for a

complicated business venture in 30 seconds is something that I would spend months on with a team of people and probably not accomplish even remotely as

well as the AI did for in 30 seconds.

And this is just one use case for one individual person with a business venture. Now extrapolate that across

venture. Now extrapolate that across every single business and problem on earth.

Like that's happening today, not in 5 years, today. For most people, and

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thing that I did a while ago on ChadBt was I asked to write a joke in the style of a few different comedians. Now,

obviously this is like what you just explained, but like a very basic level and it is phenomenal. Like you could ask for the exact same joke delivered in Tim Dylan style or Theo Vaughn style or

Chris Dia style or Andrew Schultz style and it totally accurately does the exact same joke in their styles which I thought was phenomenal. I should have asked how it was able to determine the

tone. On the topic of TragBT, if someone

tone. On the topic of TragBT, if someone has a limited budget, which subscription services should they pay for and at what level?

>> It really depends on your use case. I

think for most people, it actually doesn't matter that much. Um, whether

you use Gemini or whether you use Chat GPT, we're talking about like the $20 level. For most people, that's

level. For most people, that's completely fine. for anyone that's

completely fine. for anyone that's actually doing any sort of deep research, business analysis, that's actually

starting businesses, running a business, even if it's a small one, um you should probably pay up for like a $200 a month style subscription.

>> And which one? How do you know which one to purchase?

>> Well, again, it it really depends on your use case. And and right now today, everything has changed in the last two weeks. So I guess I just answer the

weeks. So I guess I just answer the question as if we were doing this show 2 weeks ago. But the reality is today, now

weeks ago. But the reality is today, now that we live in a world of agentic AI, not every AI company has put out their

full agentic AI stack. So today,

Anthropic has put out something that that they call uh a co-work, right? An

anthropic co-work essentially gives you the ability not just to run a prompt uh but to actually have numerous agents.

It's like having a multitude of employees and you simply tell it what you want to do and it will have five, six, seven agents. One will be

running a marketing department, one will be running a tech stack for you, and it will piece together all the things that it needs to piece together in order to accomplish any task or any goal that you

have. And it will work 24 hours a day,

have. And it will work 24 hours a day, right? So, it's not just like putting in

right? So, it's not just like putting in a prompt and waiting for an answer and then copy and pasting and doing it the way we've been doing it through chat GPT the last couple of years. Now, there is

another way to do this which I think most people are adopting in the last couple weeks and you've probably heard of uh Open Claw, right? It's gone

through a few different naming changes, but this is essentially the same thing except it's open source. It's not run by a big model. And because it's open-

source, it's completely free. So,

everyone's going out right now and buying Mac Mini, uh, you know, Mac minis, and they're basically running Open Claw. And you don't have to be a

Open Claw. And you don't have to be a technologist to do this. Anyone in the world can do this really easily. You

just simply tell it, hey, I want to start this business, how do I do this?

What do I need to do? And you set up Open Claw with its own email account.

You set it up with its own social media accounts. You set it up with its own

accounts. You set it up with its own credit card if you want with its own limits. Uh it has it's its own person

limits. Uh it has it's its own person and it runs on a Mac Mini and the reason why you want to run it on a Mac Mini is because it's new and because it's open

source. So the safety standards aren't

source. So the safety standards aren't really there yet. So it becomes an employee and in fact it can become an employee that's managing five or six or seven or eight employees because it will

create other agents inside of itself to do an infinite number of things. So, it

will actually run a business for you from A to Z on its own. And that's

what's been happening the last two weeks.

>> Possible to me. That just doesn't seem feasible that you could tell it this idea like I want to make this app that does this do it that it'll actually go

and like make the app and put it on the app store and charge your card for it and like h how >> Graham's doing all of it. I know. This

is why I haven't slept in two weeks. I

mean, this is why I initially missed the first, you know, when we were supposed to be doing this show a couple days ago, and I just didn't even realize because my life is this crazy. I can't keep up with the technology the last couple

weeks. So, um, you know what I do as an

weeks. So, um, you know what I do as an investor? I essentially spend 4 hours a

investor? I essentially spend 4 hours a day uh, dissecting thousands and thousands of comments on videos to try

to surface change in the world, right?

cultural shifts, consumer behavioral shifts, and then I try to connect the dots of that change to investable opportunities in the stock market. And

that's what a social ar trader does.

That's what I've been doing for 18 years. Um, there are a lot of people

years. Um, there are a lot of people that follow me obviously. And um, there are at least six people that I know of in the last week that have set up uh,

open claw uh, boxes and said, "I want you to replicate everything that Chris Camila does." And a few of these people

Camila does." And a few of these people have actually put the results and and have shown it working uh on X and it works 24 hours a day doing everything

that I do. So it actually goes into Tik Tok and it starts watching videos. It

runs through comments. It knows what words to look for. It knows to look for words like sold out everywhere, obsessed. Um, so it understands my

obsessed. Um, so it understands my methodology and it knows what to search for on Tik Tok and then it scans comments and it evaluates what's

trending in real time and then it extrapolates what might be a good investment to make. This was done in 48 hours. They basically replicated 18

hours. They basically replicated 18 years of my work in 48 hours on a Mac Mini just voice prompting. Hey, can you replicate what Chris Camilillo does at research me? And then it started it

research me? And then it started it started a company and it started doing this in real time. And so I'm just one

very niche individual with a niche um business, right? It can do this for any

business, right? It can do this for any business in the world. In fact, like this is this is the most exciting piece of this in that I I'm calling it like

the great reset. Okay? And I'm so excited for it because there's so much negativity around AI right now.

Everything that you just talked about with so much of the benefit of AI getting concentrated to one class of people.

It doesn't have to be that way. This is

the first time in my lifetime where the future is not necessarily owned by those with the most credentials or the most

money or the best education.

um it's owned by anyone anyone in the world that's willing to adopt quickly and create. So you know Gen Z has been

and create. So you know Gen Z has been complaining for a wrong for a very long time and they have a they have a valid complaint that they don't have the

opportunity that you know boomers had right and we could all agree that to an extent the pathway for them isn't as clear. They could spend a lot of money

clear. They could spend a lot of money on education and still end up with no job in debt and no clear pathway to success and financial freedom in their

life. Well, right now,

life. Well, right now, anyone in the world that is willing to adopt and create can do what I just told

you. Because for the past 20 years,

you. Because for the past 20 years, if you wanted to start a business, you would have to raise money. You would

have to build a team. you would usually have to understand technology or have to communicate what you were trying to build through a technologist and it would take a lot of time. There was a

tremendous amount of risk involved with all of that and because of that most of the world's problems did not mandate starting a business to fix them because even if you had the solution to a

problem the cost of actually implementing that solution was way too high for that particular problem. So the

business wasn't viable.

Now every single solution to every single problem in the world is theoretically viable. So there are

theoretically viable. So there are millions, tens of millions of nuance problems throughout every industry, every sector, even in people's personal

lives.

Every single one of those problems is solvable with AI for the most part. And

all you have to do is surface the problem and have the wherewithal to go out and adopt and spend two or

three days of your life learning how to use these tools. And you do not have to be a technologist.

>> How do you start learning about these?

What's the first step? First step, you go on Tik Tok, you go on the search bar, you type in the word AI, and you filter down for videos that have come out in

the last week, and you just watch 40 of them. That's it. Then you go on to X and

them. That's it. Then you go on to X and you essentially do the same exact thing.

And there are numerous people, hundreds and hundreds of people that are excited to show you how to use this tool and get ramped up in 24 hours. as a complete

newbie that has no technological background. Okay, you do not need to

background. Okay, you do not need to know how to do anything. I'll give you a very specific example, okay?

>> Um, you can pick any business, an HVAC business, a sprinkler business. There

are millions of these businesses. Almost

none of them are willing to embrace AI right now. You can simply go to one of

right now. You can simply go to one of them and say, "Hey, I'm an I'm an AI guy. Give me one area where you're

guy. Give me one area where you're leaking money, one area where your business is leaving money on the table, and I'm going to fix that for you for

free. And they might say, "Hey, we are

free. And they might say, "Hey, we are slow to react to phone calls that come in late at night. Uh sometimes we don't respond to them at all or by the time we

respond to them, they've then contacted one of our competitors. In 24 hours, you can set up an AI agent that will uh

answer those calls, send out immediate uh automated text responses, then uh get that person signed up uh and

get them a a quote bid in next to real time. You can have it integrate with

time. You can have it integrate with every single service that that business uses currently. It could input into

uses currently. It could input into their CRM. Okay? It could email all the

their CRM. Okay? It could email all the people within the business that need to know about that, including the business owner.

You can set that all up within days for that business at essentially very close to no cost. You just fixed a huge problem for them. You might increase

that company's revenue by 5 to 15% in 2 or 3 days.

Immediately, you become invaluable. and

you just probably picked up a client that will pay you two or $3,000 to be their AI guy to fix all their other problems. You can replicate that across 10 or 20 other businesses and probably make half a million dollars a year.

There are people right now doing this.

They just started in the last week.

Historically, like during the com boom, the gold rush was trying to pick the right company to work for. I was part of that. If you pick the right company, you

that. If you pick the right company, you get your stock options and two or three years later, you're a millionaire, even if you're 22 years old. And I had so many friends that were that age that became millionaires overnight because

they picked the right company. You pick

the wrong company, maybe you end up with nothing.

This is a very different gold rush for this generation. It's not about who they

this generation. It's not about who they pick to work for. They have to do it on their own. But the opportunity is near

their own. But the opportunity is near infinite. The difference is the window

infinite. The difference is the window is very small. So you have to do it right now, like this year. Not like in 6

months, not in 9 months, but like today.

So over the course of the last week, I've probably gotten 15 calls from people in my network that told me they were about to quit their job. Some of

them were 23, 24. Some of them were in their mid-30s, some of them were in their 40s because they got a box, they got a Mac Mini, they got this set up, and they said, "Chris, I can literally start any

business in the world and have it running in 48 hours. I've never seen anything like this. Every hour matters.

I cannot give up hours. I must quit my job." So if you're young and you've been

job." So if you're young and you've been complaining because you know the world was jaded against you and you did not have any opportunity, you just got it.

So one word answer, should every single person at the end of this podcast, not right now, but at the end of this podcast buy a Mac Mini and download OpenClaw?

>> No.

>> Okay. So not everybody >> for anyone that is willing to adopt and create.

Yes, you should do that tomorrow.

>> Would you say the highest leverage AI for the average person out there? Not

for a very specific person, but the average person would be OpenClaw would be number one. And then maybe just a basic Gemini or Chad PT or something like that.

>> I wouldn't think of it like that. First

of all, they're all changing every week.

So, whatever we decide on today is going to be different in three or four weeks.

They're all evolving their models. They

all do things slightly differently. If

you want to have an entire company operating 24 hours a day, then you have to have agentic AI. You have to have agents.

>> So if you look at the monitor that is being used for this open claw agent AI thing, it's literally just like windows that are scrolling and then clicking buttons and then creating a Gmail account.

>> You could think of it like that.

Exactly. Yes.

>> Simultaneous. You wake up, you'll wake up in the morning and you could see everything that it's done for you over the course of the night and you can communicate back and forth with it. It

will even help you decide what the best businesses for you to start. Right? So

based on things that are happening in your city, based on your interest, based on your expertise, based on your relationships, on your contacts, it will

help you figure out what would be the best business for it to start for you.

And the difference between open claw and something like chipt is that chacht doesn't really have a true memory. That

is correct. But open claw sort of actually can compound exorbitant amounts of data and synthesize the data and then act on the data.

>> So what openclaw can do is it can document and then store. Right? The same

way that you guys do this. It will have documents. It has files. It creates

documents. It has files. It creates

things and then it saves them in files.

So now you have that it's not just living right a as part of an index that an AI has to tap into. It literally

creates regular files on a regular computer just like you do. It works just like a human does. If it needs to make phone calls, it will make phone calls

for you. It will create a voice and it

for you. It will create a voice and it will make the phone calls if you give it the ability to do so and if you allow it to do so. There are people out there that have amazing ideas, but they don't

have the resources, the money, the network, the team, the technical knowhow. None of that matters anymore.

knowhow. None of that matters anymore.

We are going through a great reset where if you have an idea in your head and you are willing to adopt and you want to create, you can do it right now for the

first time ever in history this week.

like that people are not there are people that understand this cuz every phone call I take the people are borderline in tears when they speak to me they're like Chris have you seen do you understand what's happening right

now do you understand what I just built last night I cannot believe it like this is every conversation I have with someone that's building on Agentic AI right now there are actually no words to

describe how mind-melting the capabilities are because you no longer have to like go through all these systems and all these blockages that you used to in the past. I've been an

entrepreneur my entire life. I've wanted

to do a billion things. I did like a very small number of them because of of all the friction involved with going from an idea to a product. There's

virtually no friction anymore. I know

it's hard to believe, but there's like virtually no friction with so many of at least these digital ideas. You know

what? This does remind me I I have this feeling that I've had the last 2 weeks and I haven't felt it since the early days of co February 20120 is the last

time my body felt like this where it was like a very small number of people know about something and like the entirety of the rest of the world is just going on

with their life and you're like why isn't every single human on earth talking about this right Now, I really was excited to dive into the

Epstein stuff when it finally came out and it's came out the last two weeks. I

have not spent one minute of my day reading Epstein stuff, watching the videos. Like, I see the headlines and

videos. Like, I see the headlines and I'm like, I don't even care about it anymore. I was so waiting for this to

anymore. I was so waiting for this to happen. Like I wanted to go down the

happen. Like I wanted to go down the rabbit hole of seeing like all the truth and who's involved and I don't even care. And I think once you know what's

care. And I think once you know what's happening, you just you're oblivious to everything else happening in the world.

I haven't watched TV in 2 weeks. I

haven't like I haven't done anything other than this. And I think all of the people that are in this world that are either building with AI agents right now

or have friends that are building that they're watching or who are hyperactive in this community on X are like they can't think about anything else cuz they're like dude this is like

the biggest thing that's ever happened in our life and we don't even know where it's going next. Like we don't even know like you saw what happened to the SAS companies. Like that's because a handful

companies. Like that's because a handful of people on institutional Wall Street are in these are in this world and are seeing this and they're like,

>> "Holy crap, this is happening."

>> Like, okay, we we can make a case that a lot of these SAS companies have massive amounts of security and massive amounts of learning over 20 years, and they're

not going to be just displaced. But wow,

are they going to be disrupted the next 5 years because you can there's so many options now. You can have your agents

options now. You can have your agents basically replicate most of that stuff on the fly. And it might not work for a big company that has to, you know, be a

be aware of the code base and has to make sure it's maintainable and has to make sure that the security is tight and, you know, has 50,000 things that they figured out with with Salesforce

over the past 20 years >> that they're not going to go through all of that just with a aentic AI app that does 80% of it or 90% of it. They're

just not going to do it. They're not

going to take that risk. But if there are parts of their company that they could not have on that CRM anymore or new companies that they're spinning out

that aren't as like it's going to meaningfully impact these companies.

>> Now, really quick, here's what I noticed. February always seems like the

noticed. February always seems like the right time to slow down. The weather is colder. Everything seems a bit quieter.

colder. Everything seems a bit quieter.

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here. So, celebrate everyday love with comfort, that makes the little moments count because you have your finger on the pulse and you know exactly what's going on. I'm curious, how has this

going on. I'm curious, how has this expressed itself in terms of your own investing style for this year? because I

remember also you were at 70 million now you're at 8 mill 80 million so you've probably cleared $10 million relatively recently with your investing and I imagine a good amount of that is bloom

and then there's some other stuff I'm curious like how has it materialized in terms of your portfolio >> my account's volatile I've lost a lot of money in the last two weeks it has not

been a good last couple of weeks and I've had to go deeper into margin to double double down on what I believe are very high conviction bets that I'm

making right now. And this is no secret.

I'm very open with my large trades.

Bloom has been one of them for a long time.

Uh Amazon is my new biggest trade.

>> I know you literally just said on your podcast, you're like, I just bought another medium-sized house of Amazon right now after buying three medium-sized houses yesterday.

>> I've gotten like three more since then.

Yeah. So,

>> what do you see in Amazon that other people don't? Because I bought in this

people don't? Because I bought in this morning. 196.

morning. 196.

>> He was proud of himself cuz I think $3 a share after he bought $420.

>> A friend of mine brought me to the Dallas Open tennis match. His niece was there. She was 11 years old and she had

there. She was 11 years old and she had saved up $500 and she was thinking about investing for the first time. So, obviously they asked me, you know, talk to her. what should

she do?

>> She was thinking she would take $50 of the 500 to invest.

>> I looked at her straight in the eyes. I

said, "If I were you, >> weekly calls in Amazon, >> 500, and then get margin for another 500, >> 50 bucks out of the money." Well, her dad was right next to her and he heard

all this and I said, "If I were you, I would take the whole $500 and I would tell your dad to borrow $500 of margin.

That way, you can invest $1,000 with your $500 and put all of it into Amazon on Monday."

on Monday." And she her eyes got so wide. And I was like, I think if you do that,

>> there is a better than 5050 chance you will make four times your money in the next two or three years, maybe even better. So that $500 can turn into

better. So that $500 can turn into $2,000 or more.

>> So if you're right, then you'll get like a, "Oh, that's awesome. Thanks so much."

And if you're wrong, it's like, "Daddy, where did my money?" And dad's like, "Sorry, hold on, hold on, hold on. I

told her, I said, "There is a very small chance that this could go bad. Let's

call it 1 or 2%. And you might lose all of your money, but you're young. You'll

make it back. So, if I'm telling you there's better than a 50/50 chance that you can make four times your money or there's only a one or two% chance in my

opinion that you might lose all of your money or most of it, does that sound like a good bet to you? And she said yes.

And I really what I wanted her to do was start thinking in probabilities. And I

wanted her to start thinking about expected outcomes because that's something that investors do not do because our brains do not really

allow us to analyze risk properly because we we generally are all so risk adverse. So we can't make rational

adverse. So we can't make rational decisions about probabilities and outcomes.

But like that was that I she's 11. But

by the way, part of this is that she was 11. if she was 70, I would not have said

11. if she was 70, I would not have said that to her. And I told her, I was like, "You will make that $500 back in the worst of all worst case scenarios." And

in fact, I will admit something. Before

we left, I said, "Hey, I really want you to do this. If you lose all the money, I will pay you back all of it myself." And

the Dow was like, "Now that's a deal you should take." And I said, "But

should take." And I said, "But in the 1% chance that you lose all your money, I might be in really bad shape, too. So,

as long as I have the $500 to give you, I will personally give you that $500 back."

back." >> Why do you continue to take these potentially lifealtering bets when one could argue that you've already made it?

If you already have all of this money saved up and yet you're digging your heels in more and more and taking on more margin and more margin, the quality of your life will not vary if you are

right. But it absolutely will if you're

right. But it absolutely will if you're wrong >> with two reasons. One part of it the game. I've been in this game a long

game. I've been in this game a long time. It's fun. I want to see

time. It's fun. I want to see >> but he's like a smarter Togei. Togei is

the person we're having on next who is maximum like degenerate gambler. But

you're an educated.

>> Yeah. No, I'm not about that. Um, part

of it is it me I I have a mission and an objective of what I'm trying to accomplish with my investment account, right? You guys know this. I have a

right? You guys know this. I have a foundation. I'm passionate about my

foundation. I'm passionate about my found foundation for kids uh for animal welfare and elder care. I want to build it into a billion-dollar foundation.

There's no way that I'm going to have a billion-dollar foundation unless I take big risk around high conviction thesis that I have.

>> And are you doing this in that account as well?

>> Uh I'm not allowed to unfortunately. So,

uh once the money gets in my foundation, I have to be relatively conservative. I

can't even borrow on margin. So what I do is I I I ball in my regular account and then I give money to my foundation.

So I grow it as aggressively as I can in my regular account >> and I have and in my private businesses and then I donate it to the foundation and then it has to grow relatively

conservatively which is so annoying by the way. If I was able to uh invest in

the way. If I was able to uh invest in the foundation account like I do with my normal account, I would have 4xed it over the past, you know, four years since I started it. Three, four years.

>> So, you probably have maybe like say 70 million in your charity account and then you have like 10 or so personally.

>> I I don't talk about exact numbers.

>> Yeah. Uh, but I'll just say, and when you say 80 million, just to be very clear, um, the $20,000 that I initially invested has generated roughly $80

million of returns over the past 17 18 years. So then you have to take taxes,

years. So then you have to take taxes, then you have to take life expenses. And

as I've discussed with you guys before, I take the bulk of my money out every year that I make and I invested in private companies. I'm invested now in

private companies. I'm invested now in almost, you know, 170 early stage companies over the past 17 years which was the biggest investment mistake I ever made because I don't generate

outsized returns on those private companies. So I no longer do that. I no

companies. So I no longer do that. I no

longer invest in early stage companies because my returns are generating north of 70% annualized uh over the past 17 18 years. And why would I take money out of

years. And why would I take money out of a public portfolio that's generating 70 plus percent annualized returns and put them into private companies that's generating returns between I don't know

10 and 15% portfolio average. It took me a long time to realize the mistake I was making and to stop doing that.

I don't regret doing it because I met so many amazing people over the past 17 years. hundreds of founders, interesting

years. hundreds of founders, interesting people, had a lot of fun along the way, and it really expanded my network and and my horizon in terms of the things that I'm involved with. But if I was

smart and about the money side of it, I would have done nothing but social arbit trade on my phone.

>> And you argue that most people should have an allocation in their portfolio for what you call risk assets. If you

were to define what percentage people should have in risk assets and what exactly is a risk asset, that would be great. Also, Graham, what percentage of

great. Also, Graham, what percentage of your portfolio is quote unquote risk assets?

Do you include a Bitcoin ETF in that?

Probably. What how would you define a risk asset?

>> I call it the big money account. It's

the you know, everyone has this like I'm going to get rich slowly attitude, which is awesome. I think it's a great

is awesome. I think it's a great attitude to have. Compound your money over time. It's relatively low risk and

over time. It's relatively low risk and high likelihood that you will get rich over time if you just follow those simple rules. But almost no one has an

simple rules. But almost no one has an account that they can invest more aggressively like wealthy people do dayto-day, right? You have to have what

dayto-day, right? You have to have what the Russians say, no champagne without risk. If you're not willing to take real

risk. If you're not willing to take real risk, you're simply never going to get rich quick. So there's no reason not to

rich quick. So there's no reason not to have that account. Uh the account should be different for everyone. It depends on your goals in life. Some

>> is it like a fully separate account you would you would recommend? Like

>> it really doesn't matter. It all depends on your your ability to be regimented.

>> Yeah. Compartmentalized.

>> Compartmentalized. For me, it's not separate. I think for a lot of people,

separate. I think for a lot of people, maybe it should be separate. Um and it depends on how important it is to you. I

don't think it's money that you should put in from your own wallet, though. I

think it's money that you should find for making trade-offs in your life, right? So, if you think about every

right? So, if you think about every dollar is $100, all of a sudden, you start finding money all over the place.

You're clipping coupons. You're, you

know, washing your own car instead of taking it to the car wash. You're just

making tradeoffs in your life to save a dollar here, $20 there. Every time you make a trade-off, you know, make your coffee at home, take the money you save and put it in your big money account.

That's the money you take big risks with. That's the money that you make

with. That's the money that you make investments that might go to zero or might do something spectacular. Um, you

need to have that account because the rich just keep getting richer and richer because they all have that account.

Every wealthy person has that. People

that are not wealthy don't think they're allowed to have that. And that's just a terrible mindset. You have to have that.

terrible mindset. You have to have that.

>> What percentage do you think is worthwhile?

>> It's not. It's not. If you're making trade-offs, it just organically grows from zero. So, it's how many trade-offs

from zero. So, it's how many trade-offs are you willing to make in your life when you start thinking about every dollar is $100. Are you willing to skip

the coffee at Starbucks for $300? cuz

that $3 coffee is $300 if you invest it aggressively and you get a little bit lucky. So would you not go to Starbucks

lucky. So would you not go to Starbucks for just $300 a day? Probably for $3 maybe not. So you see when you start

maybe not. So you see when you start thinking of every dollar like a hundred it changes the entire game and you're finding money everywhere. So, it starts to get really exciting because you're starting with five bucks and that

account gets to grow really large. And

it's because you're now thinking like a wealthy person thinks you're you're investing in startups, you know, you're investing in options, you're investing in I don't know, I'm not a crypto guy, you know that, but if you want to do

crypto, fine. But you're investing with

crypto, fine. But you're investing with leverage. So for me, I maybe have 10 or

leverage. So for me, I maybe have 10 or so percent of my portfolio that's in quote unquote risk assets. And by that, it's mostly just like Robin Hood stock

and Bitcoin basically is what my 10% is, which might be less than 10%. 7 to eight >> 7 to 8%.

>> Yeah. But that's really just a Bitcoin ETF.

>> Yeah.

>> So it's mostly just Bitcoin realistically and then a couple other single stock picks outside.

>> Very I mean that that is a small percentage.

>> Mhm.

It's different for everyone, guys. It's

not about what percentage of your capital is there. It's about how you think about that capital. And if all the capital that ended up in the big money account was capital that was other people's money and that you won through

a trade-off in your life, then you're not worried about losing it. If it's

money you pulled from your kids' college savings, and we should talk about college in a minute, but if it's money that you're pulling from a retirement account, you're going to feel really guilty buying stock options with it.

>> Yeah. as not responsible.

>> What jobs are going to be completely annihilated from this? Like I was talking to a buddy who was thinking about becoming a lawyer and my first thought was well that's going to be replaced in 5 years. Like why go to

school for that?

>> Yeah. Um certain

there there is a wreck kind of a reckoning coming. you know, we kind of

reckoning coming. you know, we kind of have this like this this transformational period and it is a little scary to think about,

but we really shouldn't be that scared about it. Uh there are jobs that are

about it. Uh there are jobs that are where there's a lot of automation or doing the same thing over and over again or it's simple intelligence

that will just get cut. Um, however, if you're working in an industry, if you're trying to figure out what industry is going to be safer, um, industries where

there's a moat, so there could be a data moat, a distribution mode, a regulatory mode like healthcare or finance, um,

where AI is not going to be permitted to just come in and, you know, rapidly take over the entire industry. Um there are

also moes when it comes to brand. Um

there are moes as it relates to people's relationships. There are trust modes. So

relationships. There are trust modes. So

you have to ask yourself is this profession or is this company or is this career path is there a viable

moat that will help protect it from AI moving too quickly to displace everybody within this sector. So just think about all the things I talked about like

regulatory, distribution data reputation trust relationships, brand, those are all

really meaningful moes and you should be thinking about how you leverage those moes for yourself because I think if you have a brand, if you have great

relationships, if you're in an area where people trust you, AI is not going to displace you

easily. So, it's not all scary. And by

easily. So, it's not all scary. And by

the way, there are new jobs that will come out of this AI revolution. There

are new industry sectors that will pop up out of it. We're already seeing it, right? Like, it's not just like

right? Like, it's not just like everybody pulling from the same pie. The

pie is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger over time, right? So,

industry will get bigger. Opportunity

will get bigger. I just told you there are millions of companies that all need an AI guy right now. The same way millions of companies all needed a social media person back in the day.

They all needed a search marketing person back in the day. The difference

is that with Agentic AI, every single person could be that person. All you

have to do is spend a few days watching some videos and learning and you're in.

You're done.

>> What about the movie industry? I saw one on X recently where this this person did this entire AI like three minute trailer and it looked incredible. It was like this lady in New York and all of a sudden this like bomb comes and hits and

she gets in a cyber truck and drives around and they're saying this was a $200 million movie that was created in a

day for minimal cost.

>> Another moat is taste obviously and I saw that same clip. I thought it was pretty horrible.

But >> I thought visually that was impressive what I could do. Would you watch the movie?

>> Uh just just objectively if you didn't think it was AI. So don't even think it was AI. Just like would you watch it?

was AI. Just like would you watch it?

>> No, but that was because the Cybertruck had engine sounds and it just to me that took me out of it.

>> It's inevitable that video AI is going to take over everything and all of our cinema, right? It it that will happen.

cinema, right? It it that will happen.

It it's almost a guarantee that will happen in time. We soon will theoretically have usergenerated content for every single product in the world.

And that user generated content might eventually be customized just for you, Graham, or just for you.

>> Um it where we can go with this, who knows? Like I think it's really

knows? Like I think it's really important for us not to try to think about where we're going to be in seven or eight or nine years because there's too much happening right now, right this

second. In fact, getting back to your

second. In fact, getting back to your question about why Amazon, this AI efficiency wave, I think might

be the last big generational investing opportunity um within the AI sector. So, you have to think about what companies will be able

to operate at meaningfully less uh uh uh employee count and meaningfully less cost.

without sacrificing output. In fact,

what companies could actually decrease their cost meaningfully while meaningfully increasing their output.

And I cannot think of another company in the world that will benefit from the AI efficiency wave more than Amazon will.

And that's why I'm taking this bit big bet on Amazon because that is just a tailwind that will continue to give year after year after year. And I know everyone is so concerned about the $200

billion that Amazon just committed to capex. It's part of the $650 billion

capex. It's part of the $650 billion uh that big tech in the US committed to capex just this year.

>> I don't think it's too much. I think

it's too little. In fact, I think that's just the down payment on what's to come in terms of capex spend. And I think if there's a concern, it's that we're spending too little, not too much on

capex right now.

>> Why is China such a big threat to the United States?

>> Because China has the ability to move independently from the companies that operate in China. When when China decides that they

China. When when China decides that they want that this is important, they can put the full resources of the country behind it. And that's exactly what they're doing with artificial

intelligence. It's what they're doing

intelligence. It's what they're doing with robotics right now. They have a national mandate to lead the world in artificial intelligence and robotics and automation. And they don't have to

automation. And they don't have to convince companies. They don't have to

convince companies. They don't have to convince investors. They could just move

convince investors. They could just move on it. Also, one might say that they

on it. Also, one might say that they have a lower ethical threshold for how they get there. So, there are a lot of

rumors circulating about Chinese models that are essentially just stealing our state-of-the-art models and building on

top of them uh at a much lower cost, right? Uh the same way that China has

right? Uh the same way that China has been doing that with a lot of our technology over the past few decades.

So, there are some advantages there uh if you're willing to play dirty, which they are.

>> What disadvantages do you think China has? is do you think they have access to

has? is do you think they have access to the same level of talent that we have in the United States?

>> I think they're getting there. Yeah. In

fact, the one disadvantage that China has had historically is they really haven't had had that like entrepreneurial spirit, that like cowboy

spirit that we've had here in the US.

But I'm seeing that change >> and because I'm so deep in the robotic space, >> I I've seen some things the last two years that have really impressed me. Um,

and I've had a lot of my friends travel throughout China and visit a lot of these small robotics labs.

>> And it's tiny little companies. It's

tiny little backroom young people experimenting.

They've caught the entrepreneurial bug in China probably the same way that they've caught so many things from the west, right? They wear our clothes now.

west, right? They wear our clothes now.

They like our trends. They like So, it's shouldn't really be a surprise that they were inspired by our entrepreneurial

spirit and have adopted that too. So in

recognizing the fact that Amazon could be the company to benefit the most from AI adoption, decrease their costs, more output, more profit. You have invested,

I'm guessing, a lot into the company.

It's probably now your your biggest holding, would you say?

>> Yes.

>> Amazon is number one your biggest holding. And you don't have uh an

holding. And you don't have uh an expected time horizon on any of this or how do you determine on the daily that I need to go in deeper? like what is the logic >> and what's the price target that you're

hoping for and that you're looking to buy in at?

>> I never look at price. I never have price targets. Um what I care about is

price targets. Um what I care about is information asymmetry and that's all I care about. I look at how institutional

care about. I look at how institutional investors and retail investors look at Amazon. I see what they're worried about

Amazon. I see what they're worried about and then I try to poke holes in their thesis or, you know, validate my thesis versus theirs theirs. And I do this

every day when I have a big trade. So,

anything that could remotely touch Amazon in any way I'm assessing on a day-to-day basis, uh, trying to get to the ground truth. So, I understand where

their concerns are with capex. I'm not

concerned. In fact, I think Amazon's spending too little on capex right now.

I'm probably the only person in the world that thinks they're spending too little on capex.

Um, I think they are not fully appreciating the tailwinds that are coming of the efficiency wave for AI.

That's the thing I was just speaking about where Amazon will be the biggest beneficiary in the world for their retail business. They spent 15 years

retail business. They spent 15 years building a moat uh a logistics and distribution moat globally uh that takes an incredible amount of money and an

incredible amount of time and resources to build out and it's really expensive and historically Amazon's margins on products are really thin because of how much money they've had to spend to get

products delivered to you and well now like 2 hours. uh it will take a long time for AI and robotics and automation

to play out across the entire chain of Amazon's facilities globally, but it's inevitable. It's coming and it's not

inevitable. It's coming and it's not easily replicated by anyone else on Earth. The amount of capex budget that

Earth. The amount of capex budget that you need, the amount of resources you need, the amount of experience that you need, uh the local knowledge that Amazon has in every city around the world, this

took 20 plus years to develop. Uh they

are I love this so much cuz normally for me to find a company where there's this much information asymmetry I have to go far beyond the mega caps.

But the fact that I found so much what I believe to be information asymmetry with a mega cap that's highly liquid is amazing.

>> And how could you be wrong? I think

there's a real risk on the retail business them getting uh displaced by another front-end artificial intelligence. So if the entire world

intelligence. So if the entire world moves to open AAI chat GPT, we have over a billion people using chat GPT every

day. If Chat GPT decides to show you

day. If Chat GPT decides to show you product links that are outside of Amazon, that's a problem for Amazon. Cuz

instead of going to Amazon, if you use your agent to buy everything and to assess what is the best, >> I don't know what what is the best popcorn to buy, your agent will decide

that and then buy it for you. And it

will buy it for you from someone other than Amazon if it thinks it can get it a little cheaper. uh or if it can make

little cheaper. uh or if it can make more money doing that. So, you've heard about the rumors going around where Amazon's maybe going to invest as much as $50 billion in Open AI. I think

that's a big part of the reason why they're doing that. They get a chunk of Open AI, but I think there will also be a side agreement in that deal, basically giving Amazon preference over product

queries that come off of chat GPT.

That's just my thesis. But Amazon is not dumb. I'm not the only one seeing that

dumb. I'm not the only one seeing that threat. Amazon obviously knows the

threat. Amazon obviously knows the threat is there and I think that's why they're probably willing to invest so much money in Open AI.

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down below in the description to learn more about Relay. Thank you so much, and now, let's get back to the episode. What

are your other main holdings aside from Amazon? And I'm curious, what happened

Amazon? And I'm curious, what happened with Bloom Energy?

>> Okay. What do you mean what happened with them?

>> Well, you put a million bucks in that one day when the market was dumping and then I think you bought much more bloom went down.

>> Yeah, I have a lot more in that in Bloom Energy. uh Bloom Energy I is is a thesis

Energy. uh Bloom Energy I is is a thesis that revolves around uh speed to compute. So there is a race to get

compute. So there is a race to get compute online because the demand for compute globally is insatiable and most people like myself feel like we are

going to be short compute for years and years and years. And that's why big tech is spending $650 billion this year to

build out more compute. However, compute

uh is bottlenecked by energy. And what's

happening right now is a lot of cities and counties are saying, "Hey, if you data centers are going to suck up all this energy, you can't do that." Uh and

also screw the people that live here and the small businesses by having their energy rates go up by 2x. So, there's

this new kind of uh legislation that's popping up in cities called you got to bring your own energy, right? Like if

you want to build a data center here, fine, but figure out your own energy.

You're not tapping into our grid. You're

not going to like increase our energy cost uh for our residents.

Bloom Energy is one of the only companies in the world uh that has a method to essentially uh bring almost an

infinite amount of energy to these data centers. Uh and we won't get into all

centers. Uh and we won't get into all the technology but they are now working with hyperscalers and they are a

resource for energy that will allow a data center to get ramped up quicker. So

even though it costs a little bit more money today uh to put an energy cell from Bloom, an energy box from Bloom, which are energy cells, it it essentially takes things like natural

gas, but instead of burning the natural gas, there is a chemical process that turns that natural gas into energy for the data center. And it's just a

fascinating technology they've been working on for 20 years. So Bloom is the theoretical fix to this big energy problem. Now the

other theoretical fix is nuclear and you've seen all these nuclear companies, you've seen small uh modular nuclear reactor companies uh I think you know at

crazy valuations right because that's the other fix but that fix is still a few years away from being deployed where Bloom is deployable like right now

today. And that's why Bloom is up, I

today. And that's why Bloom is up, I don't know, six, 700% over the course of the last year. Now, that said, Bloom is not a technology company. They are a

technology company, but they're not perceived as a technology company historically by Wall Street. So, they

have energy analysts covering them who do not believe in artificial intelligence for the most part. The

technology analysts don't really understand Bloom because they're not covering Bloom. So, it's this weird

covering Bloom. So, it's this weird company that was an energy company, but actually they're a technology company and should be covered like a technology company. So, it's really volatile. The

company. So, it's really volatile. The

stock trades all over the place because nobody really fully understands it. So,

uh one of my very close friends spent I would say 5 months uh re deeply researching Bloom uh wrote one of the most comprehensive reports on Bloom

Energy. And fortunately, he just

Energy. And fortunately, he just happened to be a close friend of mine and I spent a lot of time with him and got to learn a lot about Bloom and that's why I made a big bet on Bloom this last year.

>> Can we just link that down below?

>> Yeah. Uh yeah, Gian Shu Dong. And I

think I've retweeted his report. I think

it sits on LinkedIn.

>> Okay. Yeah, we'll just link it down below if you guys want to read it there.

What would you say are the other most mispriced assets right now?

>> I think all the AI stocks are potentially mispriced. uh because

potentially mispriced. uh because there's a lot of confusion and a lot of doubt and a lot of concern about the unknowns around AI. I continue to think

that this super cycle is going to be bigger than anything we ever experienced in our lifetime and that Nvidia, Amazon,

Oracle Meta I think all of them are going to benefit way more than we're anticipating. But

there are risks. Each of those companies has risks like Oracle and Microsoft have concentration risk related to Open AI.

If OpenAI doesn't raise you know hundred billion and have a successful IPO then they simply won't have the capital to spend on compute and data centers that

are in the earnings projections for Oracle and Microsoft. Uh Amazon is fairly concentrated into Anthropic, right? Enthropic builds their models on

right? Enthropic builds their models on top of Amazon's Tranium chip. And I if something bad happens to Anthropic, that could be a big negative for Amazon. Now,

by the way, there's rumors out this week that, you know, we're about to see Deep Seek 4 come out, right? And it's going to be 20 times more efficient than the

US models. And you'll be able to do the

US models. And you'll be able to do the same thing with a lot less compute. The

same way we had the Deep Seek scares, remember like a year ago, we're having those same scares. That could be something that completely wrecks the market in the AI trade. However, I

believe that long-term, the cheaper compute gets, we're just going to come up with more things to do with it. So,

if you make compute 10 times cheaper, we will come up with 100x the ways to utilize that compute. If we figure out

how to make compute so cheap that Hollywood can make an amazing movie that you cannot decipher from a real film and they could literally make the whole

movie on a computer without having any of the actors have to take 4 months off of their life. I think that will happen.

And then if the compute gets so cheap that that could be done by anyone, I think it will be done by anyone. And

then if we get to a point where every single human gets their own version of that movie with their own favorite actors and maybe they're in the movie, I

think we will go there. I I don't know how far we're going to go with what we can create in our minds of what would be an enriching amazing life to have on

this earth, but I have absolute confidence that every time we figure out how to make this cheaper and better that we are going to come up with a new use case for it that's even cooler that's

going to need more of it. That's my

overall thesis on AI and why I'm going all in on these stocks. What question,

if answered, could completely change your investing philosophy?

I think um probably the biggest thing that I'm concerned about and worried about right now uh is the existential risk that AI

poses to the economy, to humanity, to the world. I think there is a real chance that we blow ourselves up. I hate saying that. There are almost

up. I hate saying that. There are almost an infinite number of ways that that can happen. Of course, you know, I think the

happen. Of course, you know, I think the one that I want to say the anthropic CEO recently brought up, which is on my mind and a lot of people's minds are, you

know uh the next virus, right, that's AI designed. Uh the artificial intelligence

designed. Uh the artificial intelligence is getting recursive over the last few weeks. So, OpenAI basically came out

weeks. So, OpenAI basically came out with their model called Codeex and in kind of the the log of how that model

was formed, they admitted that the AI is now writing itself and improving itself.

So, that's the thing that we've all been worried about the last few years. That

is the big existential risk. Once the AI starts writing itself, it starts to accelerate how good it is and what it's capable of doing. Um,

so now we're actually, you know, over the course of the last year, AI was mostly the same and then we get a little model bump, right, guys? But it was mostly the same over the past year. What

we're seeing over the course of the last few weeks is acceleration. And we do not know where that acceleration is going to

take us because now we have agents that are in there making the code better, right? We have agents that are figuring

right? We have agents that are figuring out how to make the next AI. And when

that starts happening, we really do not have a sense for how quickly this moves.

So obviously when it's accelerating and moving quickly, that could result in a lot of really amazing things like our ability to have personalized feature length films that are indistinguishable

from what Hollywood has been producing.

But it also has the ability to give bad actors uh uh the knowhow to create a virus in their bedroom and to tell them exactly how to deploy that to destroy

the world. Okay. So like as scary as

the world. Okay. So like as scary as that sounds, that's real, guys. And like

I am not someone that was really that worried about it up until two weeks ago.

>> So how would you how would you express that as a question?

Does AI move too quickly to the point where we can't contain it and control the negative consequences of it falling

into the hands of bad actors? And if the answer to that is yes, it's moving that quickly and we're not able to contain it, we're not able to work together as

as companies and as countries if we're not able to collaborate with other labs with China to say, "Hey, I know we're competing against each other, but this

is more important." Right? So the same way that we did with nuclear arms, right? We all wanted to have the best

right? We all wanted to have the best and the most nukes. At some point, we all figured out that, hey guys, if we continue to go down this road,

we're we're done. We're all cooked because someone that we don't want to have nukes is going to get the nukes.

So, we have to come together and realize that our collective power, we have to ensure that no one else gets these nukes. and we're going to have to to

nukes. and we're going to have to to also kind of tone it down ourselves here in terms of what we do with the nukes that we have. So, that was actually

pretty miraculous. Um, that's amazing.

pretty miraculous. Um, that's amazing.

And we need to do the same thing again.

Will we can we or is this is this moving so fast that we don't even have the time and the right people and the right

people in politics right now to actually sense what's happening and to put proper measures in place to have those conversations.

>> People already do this though. What

makes AI so unique and that it could accelerate this to that degree?

>> No, I mean a AI is bringing the cost of all intelligence down to close to zero.

It's fully democratizing all intelligence.

>> But like if someone wants to destroy humanity, they they did they won't have the ability today, but they might in a year from now.

>> Yes. Yeah. I I think the ability to destroy humanity will get meaningfully easier uh with artificial intelligence and agentic AI. I just told you how how

a person with no technological knowhow can create a business that would take dozens and dozens of employees and maybe hundreds of thousands of dollars and

months to years of time. How your random friend from high school with no technical knowhow can do that in 48 hours for $600 in their bedroom.

So that's a good thing. Mhm.

>> But that person can also do something evil with $600 in their bedroom now because they have a whole army of super

intelligent agents that can work with them and figure out how to put all the pieces of this master plan together, right? And how to actually enact it and

right? And how to actually enact it and do it.

>> And so what conclusion does your brain go to when you start asking yourself these questions?

I don't let myself go go there. It I I tell myself that I am not one of those people that can actually enact change. I

hope there are people that will actually take those steps who are working at the big labs who are working in government.

Um that's not me. So, I'm not I'm not going to like >> Why don't you give a message to the people watching because chances are there might be somebody in the group who can make a change and listening to you

might be the push they need just to get it over that edge. I hope someone can leverage this technology and this intelligence

to help figure out how regular people can actually enact change with the head of of these labs and with government,

right? Like like you don't have to go at

right? Like like you don't have to go at it alone. Let the AI help you figure out

it alone. Let the AI help you figure out what we should be doing collectively.

Everybody has their one political cause that they'll go to a rally for, they'll contribute money to. It's astonishing to me that more people aren't making this

their cause because this is the thing that could just take us all down really quickly and then nothing else actually matters. All your other causes don't

matters. All your other causes don't really matter. So I think a big part of

really matter. So I think a big part of it is people don't yet fully appreciate how real it is and what's happened in the last 2 weeks.

>> And that's purely because of the AI agents.

>> That's correct.

>> It's just that >> that's correct.

>> So I was seeing it explode online unlike anything I've seen in a long time. The

use of it was originally like clawed code, right, is like what they would or claude bot is what they would say and then it turned into open claw, right? So

>> well and by the way also you know codeex by open AI again being you know outwardly coming out and saying hey we're using the AI is now writing itself

and now improving itself. That's a big piece of it as well. So there are a couple things going on here. There's

aentic AI but there's also the fact that these labs have figured out how to leverage the AI itself to improve itself. But it's not your job to predict

itself. But it's not your job to predict the future in terms of how will this all play out. Will humanity end up

play out. Will humanity end up destroying itself or will we end up being able to come to agreements with competitors and thrive because of it?

It's your job to be able to see in a snapshot present tense right now for what it is and then find asymmetrical information stuff that you can see for

what the reality is and other people they don't see it that way and you can make money off that difference.

>> That's exactly correct. Um, I'm more focused on properly assessing the ground truth that is the present as opposed to trying to predict the future. And there's so much

happening in the present. It's changing

every day. And the amount of misinformation and noise has never been bigger, which means that the opportunity for someone who's able to properly assess what's real and what's not real

is huge. So, do you think kids these

is huge. So, do you think kids these days should go to college to learn or should they just spend 6 hours a day learning AI?

>> Um, it's it's it's funny because I've always been, you know, pretty hard on my kids when it comes to them doing well at school and not missing class. One of my

kids uh recently, they turned 16 recently and they dried themselves to school and they slept in and I was so astonished at first. I was like, I cannot believe like how does that even

happen? Like if I would have done that

happen? Like if I would have done that when I was a kid, I the thought of what my parents would have done to me and like but there was a part of me in the back of my head that was like does it

even matter anymore? I was like I'm looking at my kid going, why are you even in school right now? I

know that seems crazy and I can't really say that to them, but I'm like, does any of this really matter at all right now? Like, what are you even doing? Like, the world is

moving so quickly and I can't even imagine the stuff that you're learning.

How slowly it And by the way, guys, I mean, it's gotten to a point where every single kid in America is using AI for every single assignment and every single

test. It's actually I don't think people

test. It's actually I don't think people realize it's like close to 100% of every high school and college student is using AI for close to everything that they do.

How do you prevent that? Because let's

just say cuz I'm thinking if if I get like a math page, I'm just taking a a photo of it, uploading it to Gemini and saying do these problems, show me the math, show me how you did this, and it's

just like I just copy it. Like how do you prevent against that? And is that even are test scores decreasing because the kids aren't learning? Like I'm sure that's a pretty easy study to find. I I

actually so because I use AI all day every day um like a maniac I actually think the AI is making me smarter because I'm spending less time like I

won't spend you know hours just arguing with myself over like a the wording in a three-page brief

going back and forth with the AI to kind of cultivate a paper um to understand

certain elements of it and to enhance it is such a better use of my like I'm learning so much by having the AI do 95% of the work because you don't trust the

AI completely right and you still need to make sure that you know you're bringing your own taste and your own

your your own kind of like you want to bring your own tone to whatever you're writing or turning in and and you still want to have some element of yourself in

that. I think I think these kids are

that. I think I think these kids are probably learning way more using the AI than if they were doing it the old way, even though the AI is doing almost everything for them because it's just so

quick and they're not wasting. How much

time did we waste just on stupid stuff when it came to school? Like it seems ridiculous quite honestly. Um the AI and by the way at some point the AI is just

going to teach the kids personalize customize.

>> That's what I think.

>> Yeah, it's >> I think what it's going to get at some point in the future is like a neural link that basically you pay a subscription to and you could download whatever information you want. So if you want to be fluent in Japanese, you pay a

subscription 99 bucks a month. You

download fluently Japanese and all of a sudden you just understand it and then maybe as soon as you stop paying this the ability goes away but it's able to like download information and assimilate in your brain in such a way that you

could just know everything.

>> Did you watch a lot of sci-fi when you were a kid?

>> No, not necessarily.

>> Every time we talk about uh a progression, you make a quantum leap with it. every single time and

with it. every single time and everything you're saying is true but I think far down the road but yeah >> part that was watching pluribus and

having a collective knowledge and me thinking well we have a collective knowledge already online >> everything is already there it's just not in our heads but what if all of us

learned and can progress equally because what you learn I pick up instantly and then what I learn Jack picks up instantly and then we all share that knowledge globally. I mean, think of the

knowledge globally. I mean, think of the things that like we could cure cancers.

We could fix so many things. Every

problem that society has, we would understand it from that person's point of view.

>> But but Graham, the AI is already doing that because it already has access to everything that we have ever expressed that has come out of all of our

collective brains. So that's what I was

collective brains. So that's what I was trying to explain earlier when it when it recreated this entire business venture and podcast that I had around

this totally new person. The complexity

involved in that and the number of discrete elements that it brought into it. It brought in like 60 different

it. It brought in like 60 different things that I can't even imagine. It

would have taken me a year just to find all these different elements that it thought might be relevant for this exercise that I wanted it to go through.

It was using the collective brain power of an infinite number of people and past content in order to kind of

contextualize and to sculpt something brand new for me. It's already doing that. We already have plurbus. It's just

that. We already have plurbus. It's just

not fully connected inside of our brain yet.

>> Like but it's already here kind of >> and if not like very quickly. Yes,

>> it's here. The smartest people I speak to and I have access to some really interesting people um in that world and they have all told me that, you know, if

we remove at the FDA process, which takes forever, they really believe we're going to cure like every single disease within 10 years. Like they're like just live 10

years. Like they're like just live 10 years. like we don't know exactly how

years. like we don't know exactly how this is going to work with, you know, studies and delays and stuff, but we will have the tech to cure every disease in 10 years.

>> They really believe that. Like these are people that scans I've seen that they could detect certain cancers and and illnesses way before a doctor might even know what's going on because you don't

even have symptoms. Do you think AI should be able to replace humans in the courts or in policy decisions? Yes. And

>> how long do you think that'll be before someone goes to court and their AI argues against the government's AI?

>> It's going to call out all of uh the information gaps. So, anywhere where

information gaps. So, anywhere where there's an information gap because maybe someone a a juror isn't able to mentally process something or maybe an attorney forgot to say something or they said it

in a way that didn't resonate with a juror. The AI is not going to miss that.

juror. The AI is not going to miss that.

So, it's going to catch all the information gaps. It's going to catch

information gaps. It's going to catch all the biases. It's going to solve all of those problems and be so much better,

okay, than any human would be. And I

think that's going to benefit everyone.

It's going to benefit uh for a real estate transaction. It's going to

estate transaction. It's going to benefit both the buyer and the seller because they're going to know that the negotiation was negotiated with perfect information. I think in a court

information. I think in a court situation, this is one of those regulated industries. I think there will

regulated industries. I think there will always be a human over it. I don't want to say always, but for a very long time.

>> But I think the human Okay, at the tennis match I went to on Friday, this is wild. It was the first time I had

is wild. It was the first time I had ever been to a sporting event.

>> The the the line judge didn't call anything. The AI did.

anything. The AI did.

>> This is I didn't know. I don't watch tennis, so I had no idea. People that

watch tennis probably, yeah, we've been doing that for years.

The AI called every shot and if it was close, it would show it on video as an instant replay for everyone to see to make sure that we know that the AI was

right. Okay. And there was still a line

right. Okay. And there was still a line judge there. I don't know what they were

judge there. I don't know what they were doing because even the voice that would come out was an AI voice. It was

>> line judge union is what it's coming from.

>> Yeah. Right. You have to employ one person. And I've been saying this

person. And I've been saying this because I I you know my my kids have been doing youth sports forever. And the

big thing with youth sports, if you guys ever have kids, you're going to find out like people take it way too seriously.

And there is horrible arguments between parents, there's yelling, there's curt I mean it's wild. I'm like, gosh, why can't we just And by the way, the talent

that you get to like be a ref for fifth grade football. Okay, maybe not the best

grade football. Okay, maybe not the best talent in the world, right?

>> You might be one of the yellers is what I'm seeing.

>> I No I No, that's my wife, not me. I I am totally even killed when it comes to stuff.

>> But I was like, man, why can't we have AI for this? this would just solve. So,

this would make our community stronger.

>> I think it's it's genuinely the unions is what I've heard because I asked myself the same exact question on TV.

They have the strike zone in baseball and even if the ball shows that it's in the strike zone, the commentators can say, "Oh, wow. Yeah, he missed that strike. The umpire called that a ball,

strike. The umpire called that a ball, but that was a strike." It's like, well, if it was a strike, then call it one.

>> Yeah. So, I listen I I I think there's an emotional element. There's

discretion. there's nuance

uh where you need a human to make the ultimate decision. Okay. But I think the

ultimate decision. Okay. But I think the human will be able to make a much better decision with the assistance of AI. Let the AI

basically make the decision for you and then you can overrule it. Um but I think wouldn't everyone benefit if you were on a jury. Wouldn't you like to have an AI

a jury. Wouldn't you like to have an AI basically create the perfect assessment of the case? And then

>> yeah, it depends if you're guilty or not.

>> Okay. But but like you all right fine I I I think it's inevitable. I I think with government does anyone believe that our government officials are making the

best decisions for the best reasons?

Okay. Like can we all agree that government would be massively enhanced >> 100% by the government. We all agree except the government.

>> True. True. But but

>> they would argue that they employ a lot of people who rely on that income.

>> Well, I hate that argument. I I I hate that argument because I don't care if we got to take that income and just reroute it to the same people to have them do

something else that's actually benefiting humanity. Let's just tax it,

benefiting humanity. Let's just tax it, take it, redistribute it, have them work as uh health service, >> community service. Uh help have them

help the elderly, have them be advocates for the sick. There are animal welfare.

There are a billion things that humans can be doing that will actually benefit humanity. Let's not have them do

humanity. Let's not have them do something just to do something that an AI can do better. Let's let's let's put them doing something else and not take their income away. Let's let's figure

let's let's leverage the AI to figure out how we make the transition, this AI transition, which is going to be super difficult. I I bet the AI can help us

difficult. I I bet the AI can help us figure it out. How do we get these people that are about to be displaced in a better place? How do we get them through the transition into better jobs?

It's not going to be easy. The best

thing is for the first time ever, we have like a massive intelligence to help us figure this out. We don't have to do it alone. So, because I think a lot of

it alone. So, because I think a lot of people are tuning into this episode, we're going to title this something that has to do with the market and AI,

what stock would you say is maximum risk but maximum opportunistic?

I think that Google is such a fascinating company because they have 80 roughly 85% of their revenue is tied

into a legacy search business that is at risk of getting completely displaced

by AI queries, whether they're Google AI queries from Gemini or coming from Open AI or from any number of other places the bulk of their revenue is at risk.

However, Google is making moves that are maybe more ambitious than any

other frontier lab in the world towards super intelligence and to solving some of the world's biggest problems. And I

think Google actually has a pretty good degree of trust globally because of the legacy value of what they've done over

the past few decades that they could be the company to solve all the biggest worlds the world's biggest problems

and be trusted to actually put those solutions in place. So, when I think about Google, there's a tremendous amount of short-term risk there, but in

the long term, they are probably positioned better than anyone else to hit a grand slam. And I hope they do because everything that they're working

on is for is generally for good, >> right? Um, it's a fascinating company.

>> right? Um, it's a fascinating company.

Tesla even more so is so committed to the ultra long game, specifically what their play in robotics,

um that the concept of owning the full stack on an infinite labor machine that can

rebuild the earth and essentially create new industries from the ground up is probably the biggest theoretical win

that any company could have. Um, and

Tesla because they still kind of operate under Elon uh like an early stage company. If, and I'm going to say if cuz

company. If, and I'm going to say if cuz I haven't seen the goods yet, Optimus 3 should be shown in the next 6 months.

If they crack the code on generalized robotics, Tesla could be the biggest winner, but they have to show the goods. Like, they

have to actually execute on that. Um, I

think Elon is willing to move quicker and do more ambitious things than any CEO on Earth. Uh so again if generalized robotics materializes like I think it

will over the next 5 to 10 years I think Tesla might be in the pole position to benefit more than any other company on earth because you're creating an

infinite labor machine and we can't even wrap our head around what that means for the future of industry.

>> Who do you think is the best founder?

I think that Oh boy.

to date.

>> Mhm.

>> Alive now.

>> God, that's a I think Jensen >> I think Jensen uh no one would have done what he did. The the risk that he took

on the projects that he took on 12, 13 years ago that brought us to the compute that we have today.

um is just absolutely astonishing that he did that. He put that entire company at risk time and time again and not one person thought that it was a

good idea. Like I speak to people that

good idea. Like I speak to people that knew Jensen back then and they're like he was freaking crazy. Like we all thought he was nuts. Like because the he

was talking about doing things that clearly wouldn't pay off for like a decade plus. And who would have thought?

decade plus. And who would have thought?

Like the the the chipsets that they're on right now.

>> Uh I would say you'd have to give it to Jensen, but you'd also have to give a nod to a guy who is technically no

longer CEO, uh but Demis Habibus at Google DeepMind. So he was founder and

Google DeepMind. So he was founder and CEO of DeepMind, which was acquired by Google. But Demis Habibus is probably

Google. But Demis Habibus is probably the guy that you would have to attribute um most of the breakthroughs that we

have today beyond the chip itself that we have to attribute Jensen and his team to. Right.

to. Right.

>> So I'd say Jensen and Deis Habibus uh would be the two guys that come to mind. Now, you got to have Elon's right

mind. Now, you got to have Elon's right up there obviously and I also think Vlad at Robin Hood.

>> Mhm.

>> You know, it's a it's a financial firm, so it's not it's not as sexy in terms of its, you know, obvious, you know, interaction with all people if

you're not an active investor.

>> Mhm.

>> But I think VOD should be up there as well.

>> Now, speaking of that, what are your thoughts on the prediction market trend?

>> Yeah, I love prediction markets for one thing and one thing only. in that it forces people to think about probability and

outcomes. And I think thinking about

outcomes. And I think thinking about probabilities and outcomes is the core um attribute that you have to have to be

a great investor. So the issue with prediction markets is it drives a tremendous amount of dopamine and it makes you think that you're investing

when you're not. So prediction markets operate out of a fixed pie.

>> Mhm.

>> So there is a winner and a loser. So

every time somebody wins, somebody loses. There's there's no net gain in a

loses. There's there's no net gain in a prediction market. The world of

prediction market. The world of investing is a constantly bigger pie every day, right? the entire

global capital market and industry is getting larger every single year. And if

you're an investor, you're trying to get a bigger piece of a growing pie. So, if

you're going to play in one of those two games, which game do you want to play in? You want to play in a game where

in? You want to play in a game where you're trying to get a bigger piece of a pie that's getting bigger every year as opposed to a pie that's always the same size where there's always an equal winner and loser and then someone taking

shaving a little bit. Right.

>> Do you think a lot of younger investors are going to start in placing investing with prediction markets and that's going to be their exchange?

>> Yes, absolutely they will.

>> Absolutely they will.

>> And what's the risk of that?

>> Um not all by the way. Uh, I was a gambling addict when I was younger.

Shouldn't surprise you guys, right? So,

I would drive my car from Dallas to Shreveport uh, and sit in poker rooms till 7 a.m.

Uh, when I moved to LA, I was in my early 20s.

I would occasionally I' I'd be out at night partying with my friends. 2 am.

Everyone would go home. Uh I would drive down by LAX. There was a casino down there uh off of Century Boulevard, I think. And I would play poker with a

think. And I would play poker with a bunch of 60-year-olds. And I hated cigarette smoke. And man, that that was

cigarette smoke. And man, that that was the smokiest room ever again till 6:00 7 in the morning. So, uh I was an I was an outofthe-oney options addict

>> in college. I would skip class. I would

trade out of the money options on a pay phone in the basement of the business school. I would go broke every few

school. I would go broke every few weeks. I'd make more money, go broke,

weeks. I'd make more money, go broke, make more money, go broke. So, I know what it's like to chase that dopamine. I

get it. It's It's a young man's game.

And it's part of the journey for most now. For most. Uh some people will never

now. For most. Uh some people will never break out of it, but I have absolute confidence that most people will. Why?

Our brains change, our lifestyles change, we mature. Um, we get a family come this happens to every most every

person and we have more investment education now than ever before. So, you

start to see people around you and you see the guys that are just gambling with their money and what's happening to them in their lives and their bank accounts.

And then you see your friends that are investing on Robin Hood in actual stocks and equities. You see the AI revolution

and equities. You see the AI revolution happening right in front of you. You see

news cycles about billiondoll companies and trillion dollar companies. It's not

like you're not exposed to all this every single day. And especially when you get out of the fraternity house and you start working at a company and

you're around professional people, it's an evolution of life. and and and most people will break out of it. Now,

does it mean they're not going to play around in prediction markets for the rest of their life? No, of course. I

still do it. I do it for fun, right?

>> I don't know what percent I mean, it's such a nominal amount of my money when I do it. I'm really just doing it for fun.

do it. I'm really just doing it for fun.

The same way when I go to Vegas, I'll hit up the worst odds card game like Caribbean Stud or something where I think every time I play a hand, they're

getting 7% of my money or something like that. 78% of my money. But I do it

that. 78% of my money. But I do it because it's fun. Now, what's

interesting is that I read a study that allegedly found that on KHI, users lost an average of 27 cents for every dollar that they put on the platform versus

sports betting where they lost an average of, I believe it was 11 cents.

And so they argued that these prediction markets were actually worse for your finances than straight up gambling. and

that when you put gambling on an app that you primarily invest, it really blurs the line between what is gambling, what is prediction markets, what is

investing. And because they make it so

investing. And because they make it so easy, it's like, well, you know, I could just do this coin flip over here. May as

well, and then I have more money to invest.

>> I don't buy it. I I you lose money enough gambling on this and that.

Eventually, your mind assesses the pattern subconsciously.

It just does. You're not going to lose your money over and over and over again and just keep doing it for 50 years.

>> You just have to double down, though.

That's that's why you need to like and more.

>> I've been there, Graham. I was a gambler. a problem gambler when I was

gambler. a problem gambler when I was young.

Most problem gamblers when they're young grow out of it. Some don't. Like I said, it's this is not black and white, but

you your your brain does start to assess patterns and if the patterns are losing losing losing, you try different things. that like that

that's the entirety of the human species and how human evolution happens, right?

The weak go away, the strong survive.

Even within our lifetimes, we're learning and we're getting smarter every day. And I I I just don't buy the whole

day. And I I I just don't buy the whole thing where prediction markets just existing are going to lead to the collapse of society. I am more excited

than I've ever been about the next generation becoming prudent investors because of these apps because they're learning about probabilities. They're

learning about outcomes and they're also investing in stocks. I don't care that they're on the same app. It doesn't

bother me one bit.

>> There will always be anomalies. There

will be exceptions to the rule. There's

always people with gambling problems. Um that's never going to change. But as a general rule, I don't think it's a huge issue.

>> So, if we're just to entertain the viewer and pull out some crazy lofty predictions, >> what would you say just a one simple

answer is a company that you think will likely go bankrupt?

>> I think eventually Dolingo goes bankrupt.

And do you think that's just because people can spin up other apps that are going to be similar pretty simply with with OpenClaw or that you know thing will be

>> put in? I think you could just talk to Gemini at this point.

>> Teach me Spanish and it just walks you through. You just have conversations

through. You just have conversations with like you have your own tutor. I

think your agents are going to know more about you than a third-party service will ever know about you. So, it will

know exactly how to teach you Spanish based on what you did that morning. So,

it will actually teach you Spanish um based on some of the tasks that you need to complete that day that you are probably not going to want to share with

Dolingo.

Okay? So, it's going to have better access to you, better information about you. it's going to be better positioned

you. it's going to be better positioned to teach you language and to teach you math and all the other stuff than some legacy company uh that doesn't have

access to your day and everything else that it's doing with you. Does that does that kind of make sense? So, I don't think Dolingo is going bankrupt anytime soon, but I feel like the writing is on

the wall that it will get eaten by the AI that's closer to you. What's going to happen to budgeting apps when pretty soon you could just plug in your finances and your bank accounts, your

investment accounts to like Gemini or Chat GPT and that'll give you everything you need to know to optimize every single expense.

>> So, you're saying what's happening to the apps now that are just plugins, >> correct?

>> They probably go away. And what happens at that point when all of a sudden chatbt is able to get access to your banking information and is able to say, "Hey, we could offer you these loans. We

could offer you these products and services." It just seems like a huge

services." It just seems like a huge untapped industry that will completely disrupt a lot of companies.

>> It's massive, guys. In in the early 2000s, every single ad was a popup ad that wasn't even for the gender it was shown to.

Okay, that's how bad advertising was in the early 2000s on the internet.

You were mostly seeing ads for women as a guy or you were mostly seeing ads for a 70year-old or someone that has this weird like that's what it used to be.

And look at where we are today. Like and

we all complain about it, but let's be honest, like the ads are pretty good today.

>> They're really good.

>> They're really good, right?

>> Um >> I'm not even upset by them anymore.

>> Yeah. Do you I mean the amount of friction in our life is actually insane.

>> The amount of time that I spend every day with enormous amounts of friction doing all the stuff you're talking about.

>> My agent should just have it all down.

It should have access to everything. It

should just know that everybody should know everything. Everybody should be

know everything. Everybody should be customized to me and I shouldn't even have to think about it. What's crazy is that I did uh taxes recently for the index, which is that group that you met up with with the link down below in the

description. I was able to do the entire

description. I was able to do the entire year of taxes in 5 minutes. And all I did, I uploaded every single statement, every single credit card statement,

every single bank statement, and it categorized every expense. And when it had a question, it asked me how to categorize a certain thing. And it broke everything down in 5 minutes. And then I went through to double check a few like

random things to make sure it was correct and it was correct. I've never

seen it actually get numbers correct before to this degree ever. In five

minutes, the whole thing was done.

>> I spend a solid week of my life every year doing taxes.

>> Yes.

>> And by the way, preparing taxes for my CPA. A whole week of my life.

CPA. A whole week of my life.

>> Same. That's what I do.

One week of the 52 weeks is spent just aggregating stuff for

how is that even possible? Like what a waste of a life.

>> I take a weekend I take a full weekend and I lock myself in the room and I'm like, "All right, I'm going to go through this, this, and this." And I write down everything and I make sure it's all categorized properly and I double check things. And sometimes even

between Jack and I, I'm sending Jack numbers and Jack's like, "Well, I did it on my end and we came up with like a few hundred dollar discrepancy and we have to find which one of us is correct and

incorrect.

>> We are going we are all going to have so much more time to do real stuff once aentic AI takes off and we're just not

bothered by admin work." I mean, and if you look at the admin work we're doing just as people, I mean, the admin work that exists inside of companies globally,

it's just so ridiculous.

I'm like I said, I I always come back to a good place. If we don't blow ourselves up, uh, we are going to be in such a good place as long as we could manage through

the transition.

gonna be hard if we can get if AI will just help us through the transition.

I am so optimistic. I am, you know, I don't listen to Elon when he talks about all this crazy stuff cuz his timelines are off by a factor of 10. But I am a

huge believer in the age of abundance. I

think the age of abundance is actually going to happen. And I think it's not going to be an overnight thing, but I think it's all about people that all get to live like we live for the most part.

I don't think it's this thing where everybody's going to be infinitely wealthy like Elon says, but I think there is a point where most of the people in the world get to live like we

live at the top of the first world. And

how could we not be excited about that?

Like that's kind of insane. I think we are going to cure almost all the diseases we have today.

I think we're going to get to spend more time with people we love and get to do things that we like. I think there will be more stuff like people spending, you know, $16.5 million on a Pokemon card in

15 years. I think that's going to become

15 years. I think that's going to become norm because we're going to get to lean into our passions. Oh, by the way, >> if you look at history, anytime there's

been like a technological jump, even before we called it technology, there's always been like an equal amount of thirst for the opposite. So, I think all the stuff that's offline is going to

come back.

>> So, you think hard physical assets?

>> It's not even about assets. It's how you spend your time. So I think people are going to like thirst for all the cool

stuff that AI brings to the world and how it makes our lives easier and better and all the instantaneous intelligence democratizing intelligence. You want to

democratizing intelligence. You want to create a business, you can create a business. Anybody can, right? Uh you

business. Anybody can, right? Uh you

want to create a movie or a TV show that's in your head, you can just create it. That's awesome. But then I think

it. That's awesome. But then I think there will be an equal amount of desire to do things that are interpersonal that are totally disconnected from

technology. And like like I said, if you

technology. And like like I said, if you look at history that there there's usually that like even split when something like this happens. And I think that's going to be really cool because it will awaken us and we'll start

appreciating like the nostalgic interpersonal stuff that I think we've already gone like the last transition we've been going through since social media has kind of sucked.

Let's be honest, right? Like

>> we all agree it's too much. We need to get away from it. And I think it's time and I'm starting to see signs of that.

I'm starting to see so like you know uh you know I own Collecton. It's the

largest Pokemon trade show in the world and it is booming. I mean we have like 15 20,000 people coming to every show and there's no phones out. People are

playing card games now. It's a niche of people right?

>> Um >> but I'm kind of like I'm kind of seeing it all over. There's a thirst for it.

People want to do stuff like at my restaurants. I've never seen this

restaurants. I've never seen this before. The last few months, I'm

before. The last few months, I'm starting to see groups of people playing cards and games at my my restaurant and my bars. Like groups of women will come.

my bars. Like groups of women will come.

Like I saw people playing dominoes and there's people playing marjon and there's people like people. This all

started happening in the last few months and it's super weird and I don't I'm still trying to wrap my head around it.

We're very early, but I think that will be the ne like a next big like super trend that we see because there's going to be resistance with the AI stuff.

There's going to Our brains can only tolerate so much change at once.

>> So, what should people be investing in if it's not AI? Like, what other like the Pokemon card that sold for 16 million? Are there other things like

million? Are there other things like that, collectibles that you think are going to be doing really well?

>> Um, yeah. I mean I I I would just say look look for things where you have modes that AI cannot penetrate. You know

AI is never going to fully be able to penetrate things where there has to be physicality. Now one day will we have

physicality. Now one day will we have robots? Yes. I'm a big robot advocate.

robots? Yes. I'm a big robot advocate.

But the the world where we have billions of robots is not happening in the next few years. So if there has to be

few years. So if there has to be physicality, relationships are super important. Any type of job or industry

important. Any type of job or industry or company where trust is super important. Um where there's regulations,

important. Um where there's regulations, uh where there's a high degree of nuance taste involved. I think those will be

taste involved. I think those will be relatively protected. So you just have

relatively protected. So you just have to look for things that AI can't just displace. And I think those things get

displace. And I think those things get bigger, not smaller, over time.

>> If you had a billion dollars and you just could hail marry that into any stock, this stock could have huge risk, huge loss. Uh, what would it be?

huge loss. Uh, what would it be?

Short-term. Short-term. So, not long term.

>> Can I split it between two stocks or no?

>> Yeah.

>> I'm going to split it between my favorite two stocks, Bloom and Amazon.

>> Mhm. And that's shortterm. Even short

term, I cannot pinpoint when the market will fully start to appreciate and properly balance

the positives versus the theoretical negatives on a company like Amazon and Bloom. Uh, but I think every month that

Bloom. Uh, but I think every month that we go, we're more the market is more likely to see it.

>> What is one stock everyone should own at least a little of?

>> You have to own Amazon. I mean, you you absolutely have to own Amazon. And

>> I the next question was, what stock has what stock obviously has the most long-term like potential like in terms of information asymmetry? And that would

be Amazon.

Like the information asymmetry is so obvious that it wouldn't be difficult to find.

Uh there is a company in Japan called Ricotta and they make the 3D

imaging machines that are able to assess if there is anything not working or

broken or misaligned in a computer chip or a memory chip. And the way that AI is progressing right now, you could think

about the way chips were made.

Historically, they were very flat, right? It was very easy to kind of

right? It was very easy to kind of visually see um if the circuitry was correct in that chip. Well, now chips are getting very dense. If you look at the next generation and generation after

that Nvidia platforms, everything is becoming stacked now. So, data centers are about to become way more dense. the

the servers, the chipsets, everything is is now like it's it's going from a one-story house to like a tower.

A lot of sophistication, uh, a lot of circuitry, a lot of stuff going on for a simple person. Like, we

won't get too into the minutia of it all. It's an extraordinarily expensive.

all. It's an extraordinarily expensive.

And if you go ahead and put these chips, whether it's a memory chip, whether it's a GPU, uh, inside of a stack, inside of a data center, and then find out it's

not working, it takes that offline and is extraordinarily costly. So the value in being able to assess that all of the

pieces of the compute that ultimately go into the data centers are working before they actually get implemented and deployed

>> is becoming exceptionally important because the cost of having it go down later is really bad. Also, you want to be able to quickly assess what was wrong because if you manufactured a whole lot

of these that have the same issue, you want to be able to stop that run and fix the issue. So, this is like an unknown

the issue. So, this is like an unknown company in Japan. Uh, I am in the process of trying to buy shares in it.

The problem is to buy shares in a foreign company like that.

Sometimes they have ADRs. This one has an ADR, but it's not traded with any real liquidity, so I can't really put a lot of money into it. I have to open up

a Schwab Global account, which I do have. Uh, Interactive Brokers will allow

have. Uh, Interactive Brokers will allow you to do this as well, but even Schwab Global told me this last week that they didn't have the ticker set up to trade cuz no one in America has ever traded

that ticker.

>> No, the first person in America. So, I

had to request that Schwab add the ticker to Global. Um, it has to get approved and then added. So, they're

going to call me. They say they are more likely than not going to do it. Uh, but

they're going to call me once it's added and I will hopefully be the first person to purchase this through.

>> They're going to buy. They're going to front one you on this one. They're going

to buy it first. Be like, "Ah, Chris is buying. All right, let's just buy a

buying. All right, let's just buy a little too. I'm going to dump the

little too. I'm going to dump the entirety of my global account into this company uh which is a relatively small company

that I think has asymmetric upside downside because their core business is fine. It is what it is but this AI

fine. It is what it is but this AI business is totally new and just totally value add to their revenue stream. not

approach this company directly and just say, "Hey, I want to invest in you. What

could we work out?"

>> I don't even like traveling like to another state. I'm not going to Japan.

another state. I'm not going to Japan.

No, I mean, they're a publicly traded company, right? So, like if you want to

company, right? So, like if you want to buy, you just buy them on the Japanese exchange. So, just so you know how it

exchange. So, just so you know how it works, it's actually kind of it's interesting. Most people don't

interesting. Most people don't understand that you can do this. You can

buy almost any company in the world through something like Schwab Global, but you have to open a global account.

Then you have to transfer money into the global account. Then you have to buy the

global account. Then you have to buy the local currency first. And that's where you really get hit with commissions because it costs like half of 1% to 1% depending on the currency. Do the

currency trade. It's like it's 1986 with commissions. Then when you get the local

commissions. Then when you get the local currency, you could trade the stock and then you got to transfer it back into the US currency eventually, right? So I

look for things like this all the time.

I have people on my team that are looking for stuff like this. Uh it's

getting harder and harder to find like true information asymmetry that's totally unknown in the AI space cuz all of Wall Street is looking for it. But

this is what I mean. You asked for it.

>> So So that's it. I mean, if you want to know, that's it. That's fascinating. I

appreciate it and it's impressive how much research you've done. That's quite

phenomenal.

>> Well, I I I have a partner. He has done the bulk of the research. In fact, um I'll get his permission to link it. I

think he has a 70page report.

>> It'll be linked down below as well if we get the permission.

>> But Chris, thank you so much for coming on the ice coffee hour podcast. And of

course, thank you for being flexible with the timing and everything. I mean,

>> we asked this relatively last minute, so we appreciate that. Thank you so much to all of the viewers watching that have made it this far. We are so appreciative of you, of course. Also, big thank you

to our members who support the channel.

Big shout out to you. Really appreciate

it.

>> And of course, big thank you to Caleb Hammer because we are using his studio and it's very generous of him. So,

appreciate it. Thank you so much, Chris.

Until next time. See you.