The Bottom Is In.

Over the past week, I've been aggressively buying Bitcoin because I think the bottom may be in. In this video, I'll explain why that is, despite many calling for a much longer and deeper bare market. This is the agenda for the video. So, let's get right into it. I first want to go over my framework

for trying to predict tops and bottoms. This is the same framework I used to predict the most recent top in October of 2025, and I will try to apply it uh here uh to try to predict a bottom. Uh so after I go over my framework, I'll

make the case for why I think Bitcoin is bottoming primarily due to the reemergence of Sailor uh and his new stretch product. So let's get right into it. Um I did mention that I think we are at the phase where you want to buy when

it. Um I did mention that I think we are at the phase where you want to buy when no one else wants to buy. When I suggested people sell um near the market top, I got clowned on it. And now when I'm starting to tell people that I'm

buying um they are baffled that I am not waiting for the Q4 bottom. uh but I think there is merit in doing the opposite of what the herd wants to do um and at least try to think critically about who is buying and who is selling.

So this is the framework uh that I use and it's very simple. It's a gross simplification but I do think it's important especially when you know we're dealing with crypto that tends to go parabolic both to the upside and to the downside. But number one, how are people positioned? What is their outlook for

downside. But number one, how are people positioned? What is their outlook for the markets in the next month, three months, six months? and how are they expressing that trade? Number two, who is left to sell? Number three, who is left to buy? So thinking about how are people positioned now and then who could

potentially sell, who is the marginal seller, who is the marginal buyer. I

think, you know, being able to write this down, I think is a good way to think about where the markets are going to go in the future. So, you know, this is kind of a cringe chart, right? Um, this 2025 Q4 all season uh that were guaranteed to me, uh, but didn't happen. Um, but generally when I see stuff like

this get a lot of engagement and I'm sure you know some of you fell for this too. Uh, it doesn't I mean first of all it doesn't really make any sense, right?

too. Uh, it doesn't I mean first of all it doesn't really make any sense, right?

Um, just because something happened four years ago it doesn't mean that it has to happen this time around. Um, and when everyone is positioned for this alt season, that means that everyone is long alts and there is no one really left to buy these alts. Uh, that also means that there's a lot of these people that are

going to be marginal sellers of these alts. And I think a good I guess limus test or a good way to gauge sentiment is looking at my videos. I mean not just my videos but other videos, right? Try to think of what the opposing view is,

right? Uh the inconvenient truth. Um everyone wants to hear that your bags

right? Uh the inconvenient truth. Um everyone wants to hear that your bags are going to go up, but there's this Asian guy saying that their bags are going to go down. Uh how are people reacting? And I mean obviously, you know, at this point, uh it's kind of funny reading these things because I

mean the engagement uh was insane, right? uh where people were just clowning on me u and then you know love you man but you should stick to farming DeFi and not calling tops or bottoms but in a way right um calling tops and bottoms is a way to farm DeFi protocol so I can like short on the perex anyways

uh I mean this when I look at this I it reminds me of the five stages of grief um and it's also worth considering where we are at right now um I think in October in Q4 everyone wanted an all season so anyone that suggested we won't

get one uh you know people were in denial and then people were angry at me.

I argue right now we are in the acceptance phase. I think we were in the depression phase around February but I think we are approaching depression/acceptance right now. Um and in terms of marginal buyers and sellers you know uh there was or you know it's kind of interesting

because the reason I became bearish in Q4 was because of Sailor and his inability to buy at least in the future. Uh but now right I'm bullish because of Sailor's in ability to buy. So I'll talk about that later. Um but yeah, marginal

buyers uh which was Sailor and Tom Lee, they were running out of money, right?

Um Tom Lee Tom Lee pumped ETH up 2x. Uh he ran out of money or he was running out of money. Uh and you know, uh the ETH pump, right? Led by the Tom Lee was completely retraced. Uh so you know the marginal buyers were uh the DATs and the

completely retraced. Uh so you know the marginal buyers were uh the DATs and the marginal sellers were retail levering up uh to prepare for you know this season that didn't really happen. Um, and if you really think about it all that

together, yeah, I mean, maybe it was obvious that, you know, it we topped one E10, like 5K or so. Uh, of course, it's really hard to see these things um when you're in the moment. And in a way, I did get lucky, right? Um, it's not like,

you know, I'm I think I'm like a great trader for this, right? Um, I just was like so focused on Tom Lee that maybe I got one thing right and that one thing led to other things being right. Uh, but I also think that it it is important to

think about I mean there's a lot of noise right now, right? geop

geopolitics, AI bubble, etc. Um, a lot of uncertainty, but what is the most important metric that is driving the markets? I argue in Q4 of last year, it was Tom Lee and the Bitmine MNAV. And this time around, I think it's going to

be stretch and Michael Sailor, which I'll go about later. But yeah, to summarize, people were all in, right? Uh, position for the Q4 season. So, the

marginal sellers were everyone that was all in on leverage. Who was left to buy the DATs, but they were running running out of money? Uh, so the markets were already fragile. uh maybe there was confluence of the four-year cycle so

already fragile. uh maybe there was confluence of the four-year cycle so people were ready and itch you know itching to sell anyways. Uh so a combination of all these factors led to this deleveraging cascade uh that you

know kind of summarizes the past six months of the crypto market. Um so that being said why do I think that the market has bottomed and I mean all these things you can kind of like flip it right change

the wording a little bit. Um but I mean of course I'll go step by step. Um but

yeah, how are people positioned right now and then who's the marginal seller and buyer? I think right now in terms of positioning, people are, you know,

and buyer? I think right now in terms of positioning, people are, you know, generally aware of the Hoyer cycle, people are prepared for a potential Q4 bottom. And there's a lot of these people um that say, oh, you know, I'm

bottom. And there's a lot of these people um that say, oh, you know, I'm just going to sell my coins now uh and then, you know, I'm going to buy like 45k Bitcoin in Q4. uh in the meantime I'm gonna just do nothing and you know

I'm gonna ride my 5x um in the next two three years which sounds like a nice idea right the idea that you can just do nothing wait until Q4 buy this magical bottom and then make money and go to Valhalla together but I do have a few

problems with this mindset of course it could pan out but I also think it's very lazy these assumptions are very lazy you know and if you think about it from first principles I mean, we've had six like we're six months in six months into the bare market, right? That means people have

had six months to prepare for this, you know, theoretical Q4 bottom. Um, and,

you know, people are aware of how things how badly things can get. But then

again, for there to be a Q4 bottom, we have to have a market where the participants are aware of it. Therefore, they have d-risked. And also, not only have they d-risked when it's Q4, we need people to be just exorbitantly selling

all their coins, right? Because for us to hit new lows in Q4, there has to be some, you know, liquidation or some capitulation event. But if people are already, you know, comfy in cash to some extent, right, like maybe 50/50 cash, crypto, like whatever the ratio is, I just like don't really see how something

like this can happen. Of course, if there's a recession, if there's some AI bubble deflation or some war, I mean, yeah, these things could happen, but I tend to not assume that I have an edge in these things. So, I try to focus on

crypto native flows. And when I study the positioning across traders, fund managers that I talk to, most of them are over 60% cash. And it's not that they're bearish crypto, they're just waiting for one leg lower. And then the

question is, what happens if that doesn't happen? And I think that the reemergence of sailor will prevent the next leg lower meaning that these people have to buy back higher. And you know, of course, I mean, the number two

question, it's kind of, you know, hand hand wavy, right? Uh, of course, there's always marginal sellers in crypto. Um, it can always get worse. Um, but loosely and generally, uh, what I observe is that this market is a lot of the

tourists, crypto tourists are gone, right? Um and a lot of the crypto believers are just you know heavily in cash and you know maybe that's fine but you know like if your target position for crypto is X I think

that you know across the board it's definitely under X whatever that you know percentage is. Um, and of course, you know, just focusing on the lack of sellers is not good enough, right? Uh, we can't bottom if or bottoming requires

two things. Sellers to be exhausted and then buyers to step in. And for a long

two things. Sellers to be exhausted and then buyers to step in. And for a long time, we really haven't had a marginal buyer that was ready to just take us, you know, take us higher. But I think stretch and sailor is really going to be

that marginal buyer that takes us higher. So, let's talk about stretch and the reemergence of sailor. So if you study micro strategy or sorry if you study sailor's I guess Twitter or X you see that all he talks about is stretch.

You can just scroll down like all he does is talk about stretch and you know I think this is true for the other seuite um executives and I think they know that the only way out for MSDR uh to get out of their the rut that they're

in is to really really pump the usage and adoption of stretch. And what

stretch is is it's this fixed income product that's meant to pay 11.5% fixed yield and sailor right issues this credit and with that money that he

borrows he is looking to buy more BTC with it and the idea is that you know there I mean MSDR owns a lot of Bitcoin they can you know issue credit against that capital um and they can monetize the appreciation of Bitcoin um and pay

the interest payments by issuing MSDR or selling MSDR on the bag holders. Uh so

stretch holders receive cash flow and stability right they get a fixed 11.5% rate and you know MSTR holders can benefit from you know if they buy Bitcoin with it and Bitcoin goes up by more than 11.5% then MSTR in theory

benefits so this is a chart for STRC uh so they launched around July it's there's a lot of volatility right um they also launched basically at the top so um you know I think when Bitcoin was volatile and going down uh it was hard to own this thing uh but in the last two months you can kind of see that there's

less volatility and more demand, right? In terms of volume bars here, uh, which is kind of interesting. I'm not going to go over, you know, the the nitty-gritty part of Stretch. Um, if you want to learn more, I mean, I highly suggest, you know, reading this article via Victor. Uh, you know, if you think that

there's there's even like a 10% chance that Stretch can bottom Bitcoin, I think, you know, you you owe it to yourself, right? Uh, to try to understand how this thing works. Uh, in this video, I'm going to try to, you know, compress it down into the important factors, um, and, you know, kind of dumb it down. So, you know, DJens can understand, right? You know,

um because I'm a DJ myself. Uh but the TLDDR here is yeah, it's a yield yield instrument. It pays 11.5% monthly. Um you know, anyone like all the all the

instrument. It pays 11.5% monthly. Um you know, anyone like all the all the money that goes into Stretch goes into buying Bitcoin. Uh this thing can scale without increasing their leverage. And you know, every dollar of Stretch issued

uh could roughly translates to like $2 to three dollars of Bitcoin, right, being purchased by MSDR. Um so, you know, Stretch holders receive a stable yield with less volatility. MSDR holders absorb the rest of the volatility, but

they get more upside at least or at least that's the trade. Um, to put it really simply, right, um, like I mentioned earlier, Sailor is just saying that, you know, I expect Bitcoin to go up by over 30% per year. So, if the market allows me to borrow cash at 11.5% and I buy Bitcoin with it, then it's

accretive to our shareholders and that's good for our um, you know, Bitcoin per share metric, right? Um, we obviously like know, you know, how I mean I personally have a hard time owning strategy. Um, but at least I can respect this the financial wizardry. Uh, so of course this is a form of leverage. Um,

and you know, he is essentially taking money from the future to buy Bitcoin with it in the present and the way this works is if Bitcoin goes up a lot obviously, right? Um, if it doesn't then it does not work. But for the time

obviously, right? Um, if it doesn't then it does not work. But for the time being, stretch Oh, sorry. Uh, so if you look at the USD reserves, they have, you know, over $2 billion in here. uh which equates to roughly 28.5 months of

dividend coverage, meaning that they have enough cash to pay over 2 years worth of liabilities. So in the short term, he has enough runway to pay

liabilities for yeah over 2 years. So as a farmer or as a capital allocator or investor, it seems like a pretty interesting proposition, right? uh this

thing is promising an 11.5% rate and this company has over 2 years worth of Norway to pay these dividends and for me I mean I personally right um I've never owned MSTR but I bought some stretch right just to experiment with and then I

thought to myself wait like if I'm buying stretch like the the money going into Stretch is going into Bitcoin and if I think Stretch is a good product then I should expect more money to flow into Stretch but if that happens then

all that demand goes into buying Bitcoin Can this, you know, situation cause problems in the future? Yes. However, because they have enough runway, I I don't have to worry about that. And the simple question is in the next 12, 16,

18 months, will there be more or less demand for stretch? I think there's going to be more. And if that's the case, I just think that there's going to be a lot of, you know, uh, I guess, Bitcoin demand that Sailor can leverage in order to, I guess, capitalize on this. And, you know, Sailor is very

interesting. I mean there's more points I want to share later in the video. Um

interesting. I mean there's more points I want to share later in the video. Um

and it's really really fascinating what he has done here. Uh so obviously uh Stretch IPOed um in July and they raised like 2.5 bill at like 80 or $90. Uh and

then you know in the following weeks and months they didn't really do much uh just because the markets were kind of kind of bad. But you know ever since we bottomed around 60K uh around February/March

two weeks ago they bought $377 million worth of Bitcoin via stretch and last week 1.18 billion. And I just don't see how this stops, you know, and if you think that there's going to be more demand for stretch, then that's, you

know, indirectly or I guess directly more demand for BTC. And I think you know I mean I could be wrong on this but my thesis here uh and this is like the main Bitcoin bull case I think the stretch can be reaching some sort of

escape velocity velocity where it's becoming more trusted over time and the risk profile is safe enough I guess in order to extract in order to attract not only know crypto investors but also outside investors and that will enable

him to buy hundreds of millions of Bitcoin every single week if not billions and it's interesting to me because generally like these DATs including including including strategy, they usually buy tops, right? Like they

just it's very it's so positive like there's so much reflexivity that they just like top blast, right? Um which sends coins higher. Um and then once we enter a bare market, they just stop buying. But via stretch, you know, they're essentially just levering up to buy the bottom, right? And if it works,

then it works great for MSR shareholders and also for Bitcoin holders. Uh so I thought that was interesting. And you know to get into the nitty-grittiness of I I mean I said I won't get into this but um I I I also think this is kind of

uh important to know. So obviously Stretch pays monthly dividends. So uh

the vertical lines here the yellow lines they mark x dividend dates for stretch meaning that if you hold stretch into these dates uh you get the monthly dividend. So what you see here is you know historically uh a lot of holders I

dividend. So what you see here is you know historically uh a lot of holders I suppose uh hold stretch into this and then they dump it before or after the X dividend date uh because they're already eligible and then you know uh stretch I

guess deepex below 100 and then no buyers step in and of course when the markets were volatile and going down uh this was you know a lot a lot of weird stuff happening here but in the last two months here in the month of February uh

you know it went down less than 1% and then got back to 100 immediately and now We're basically at 99.7. Um, and how Stretch works is, you know, once if if Stretch is over 100, you know, Sailor can borrow money, right? Essentially,

right, he can issue more shares, uh, essentially borrowing money. So, if

Stretch quickly gets back to 100 this week, tomorrow, like whenever, uh, then that's a signal that people are buying Stretch, right, for the 11.55 11.5%

yield. Sailor is taking that money and saying, "Cool, I'll buy Bitcoin." So

yield. Sailor is taking that money and saying, "Cool, I'll buy Bitcoin." So

yeah, Sailor is turning demand for I guess yield, right? A demand for dollar yield, I suppose, into Bitcoin buying and structural demand. So you can imagine a world where if this thing gets big enough, that's just constant buying

of Bitcoin, right, through Sailor. Uh and you know, he can create new products like a stretchbacked stable coin, right? uh maybe it's like 80% backed by stretch, 20% backed by tea bills and maybe there's other things that he can

trunch and try to ship it and or like I guess pitch it to Wall Street institutions. Um and it's one of those things where in the short term it's a

institutions. Um and it's one of those things where in the short term it's a pretty good product and I don't mind holding it. Can it get more risky in the future? Yes. But in the short term it's a pretty compelling product. So I'm in

future? Yes. But in the short term it's a pretty compelling product. So I'm in there. But if I'm in there I should be bullish Bitcoin. That's kind of where

there. But if I'm in there I should be bullish Bitcoin. That's kind of where I'm at. Um and you know taking out the lines to make it uh make the chart more

I'm at. Um and you know taking out the lines to make it uh make the chart more clean. We see that there is more volume more demand more Bitcoin buys which

clean. We see that there is more volume more demand more Bitcoin buys which should imply that there's more trust um and yeah demand for this type of product and we see that in the last two months less volatility which also means more demand and there should be more trust around the product because this is a

product that should trade around $100 over time. Uh that way sailor can you know pitch the idea that oh like the sharp ratios are high there's no volatility you know um you get bitcoin backed yield digital credit etc. Um and

my bet here buying bitcoin is that we are in the early stages of the capitalization phase of stretch and this is an actually this is actually like the first strategy product that I can consider like using as part of my portfolio. Um, and if it works for me, then it should work for others. And if

portfolio. Um, and if it works for me, then it should work for others. And if

it works for others, that's a lot of demand that can go into this product, which means that Bitcoin is going to be bid, right, for the foreseeable future.

This is the com uh I guess the the total Bitcoin purchased from Stretch and obviously since July, it's been kind of slow, right? Um, it's hasn't really been able to do much. Um, and then recently, it's really accelerated in the new year.

Um, and my bet is that it's going to continue going up. Um, so yeah, you can believe in the four-year cycle, but if Sailor is able to like lever up his firm and just buy more Bitcoin, then I just don't see how Bitcoin can stay, you

know, in the 70s, uh, is at least my view. So, an interesting way to reframe this, uh, and this is like what my friend sent me. So, you know, when you're long per uh, you're essentially, you know, paying a funding rate, right?

Uh, so on Binance, and this is also the case for per taxes, but the baseline funding rate is 10.95%. So, you know, if you're like lever longing Bitcoin, you're paying 11 like roughly 11% to lever long Bitcoin. And if the markets

are hot, then the funding rate can go up. If the markets are bearish and people are super short, and then it can go down. But generally, right, it's around 11% uh and then it goes up and down based on the state of the market.

And I'm not sure if you can see this but like under my face but my what my friend sent me and I was like this is like very very interesting but stretch is in a way like a way for sailor to long pers right for bitcoin because he's essentially

borrowing money to buy bitcoin right which is kind of like how pers work right like leverage and instead of paying like funding that varies depending on the state of the market he's paying a fixed funding rate right

so instead of you know us having to worry about whether or not funding can go like to 30% to 100% or minus 30% whatever right um he gets to say okay like we issued this new stretch product and we're just going to long Bitcoin at

a fixed 11.5% rate um and it it also creates this new like dollar not it's not really like a dollar a stable coin but stretch is kind of like this like this Athena thing uh where you know you can just get a decent coupon as long as you trust you know Micro Strategy and Sailor to do the right thing. Um, I just

thought that was interesting, right? Like this fixed rate per long. Um,

and I was like, huh, that's kind of bullish, right? Like

Sailor is starting to just lever long per if you really think about it. Um,

and the cost to long is going to be fixed at 11. It's like not even that bad. Uh, if you if you're actually bullish Bitcoin. So, going back to this,

bad. Uh, if you if you're actually bullish Bitcoin. So, going back to this, you know, how are people positioned? Who's left to sell, who's left to buy? I

mean, I mentioned that, you know, sentiment has gone extremely bearish and market positioning is the lightest it's ever been. Um, I mean, I can't really prove this, but uh, you know, in my conversations with people and I guess like what I see online and yeah, uh, looking into people like funds

positioning, uh, this seems like it's the case. And at the same time, Sailor has essentially found a way to leverage his Bitcoin holdings to buy Bitcoin and his buys are accelerating, right? So positioning is light. Marginal sellers

still exist, but I worry about the LMA. I I I worry about them less. And now we have Sailor just going ham. And when I think about it, I just think it's a good setup to be long. I had a hard time going long, honestly, just because, you

know, I I am scared about, you know, downside volatility, like downside risk, just because I mean the price action has been so bad for crypto for the past 6 months. But at some point, right, a setup forms. Um, you know, I think about

months. But at some point, right, a setup forms. Um, you know, I think about who's buying, who's selling, and then Sailor is just going ham. Like, it's

it's hard for me to be bearish. It's hard for me to envision a world where crypto doesn't go up from here. Um, you know, absent like, you know, geopolitical tensions. But, I mean, we've we've also had that for like the

geopolitical tensions. But, I mean, we've we've also had that for like the past month. And, you know, crypto hasn't even gone lower. So, you know, there's

past month. And, you know, crypto hasn't even gone lower. So, you know, there's like really some relative shrink there. Risks. Obviously, there's risks. You

know, I'm sure you're you know, there's like warning signals in your head, right? It's like, oh, this sounds like Luna US. Um and you know it's not like a

right? It's like, oh, this sounds like Luna US. Um and you know it's not like a one to one compar it's not you know uh it's kind of like apples to oranges right um it's not like same however it is a good framework to think about how

this could go wrong um of course Luna had this redemption mechanism with USD so there was like this ludoom loop where if US goes below goes goes below a dollar then yeah there's like this infinite Luna that gets minted and then

you know this thing goes to zero that's not the case for stretch you know um even if stretch goes below due to market forces, you know, that's fine. Um, the way this ends poorly is if Bitcoin stays in, let's say, a two-year

fine. Um, the way this ends poorly is if Bitcoin stays in, let's say, a two-year bare market, right? Because they have two years worth of dividend payments and sailor just depletes his cash reserves. They he keeps buying Bitcoin and Bitcoin

just doesn't do anything. Uh, at that point, he's he might have to sell his Bitcoin to meet his liabilities. But then again, that's not something we have to worry about right now. Uh this is like why I think that we are in the

early capitalization of this panzenomic flywheel and I'm not really worried about this even though it could happen right it's good to be aware of this you know um I don't think anyone should be like too bullish a stretch in in and like allocating your life savings into it uh but it's something to at least

consider and also you know Peter Schiff had this comment uh today I think where yeah if you keep this pace up for another year you're going to waste another $80 billion buying Bitcoin and make all the whales sold you there is much richer, which could be true, right? Um he might just be exit liquidity for

existing holders because he's, you know, signaling to the markets that he's going to keep buying. Um and if you just study the, you know, the chart of stretch, right? You can kind of see when he's buying because if it's trading over 100,

right? You can kind of see when he's buying because if it's trading over 100, you know, that's when he's buying. Um sure, but also, you know, I mean, I'm a recovering midcurve and I think it's a mid-curve take, right? Um saying that stretch is a Ponzi and it's going to end in tears. Maybe you're going to be

right. But the better question to ask yourself is, how can I make money off of

right. But the better question to ask yourself is, how can I make money off of this? Right? Um what does this mean for the price of Bitcoin, the price of other

this? Right? Um what does this mean for the price of Bitcoin, the price of other coins? Uh and what does that mean for the future outlook for crypto over the

coins? Uh and what does that mean for the future outlook for crypto over the next 12 24 months? And what I think is even if it does end like end poorly, like end in tears, if stretch gets too big where that's a problem, I mean

that's going to be pumping Bitcoin in the short to medium term. And I'm not essentially making a bet that this will collapse or something, right? I'm just

making a bet that Bitcoin is going to go up because this is a compelling product in the short term. I mean, it's a pretty simple trade. Uh, does it make sense to long stretch Bitcoin? I mean, it's up to you, right? Um, Ethereum, I don't know.

Uh, but I choose to long Bitcoin. Double case for ETH though, right? Um, is

imagine if Tom Lee says this or looks at this and is like, wait, I think my retail followers would love 12% 13% fixed yield. And I can say things like, oh, you know, this new digital credit is backed by the future of finance. This

internet bond backed by Ethereum staked Ethereum earning 2.5% APY backed by Mr. Beast chocolate bars. Buy my bags, right? Uh if I mean, if Tom Lee issues like a stretch equivalent for Bitmine, I think it's going to work and it's

probably going to represent a form of leverage for Ethereum that the market desperately needs. And who knows, maybe I'll buy Ethereum for the first time in

desperately needs. And who knows, maybe I'll buy Ethereum for the first time in a long time um and not short it. Um, but who knows? Maybe I'll short Ethereum once I buy it um after it goes up some percentage. I mean, that's something to worry about in the future. Maybe the market's pricing this in. I have no

idea. Uh, but yeah, I think crypto generally requires leverage to go up,

idea. Uh, but yeah, I think crypto generally requires leverage to go up, which I mean is not always great. Uh, but, you know, it helps. And this is a form of leverage that's being created at the bottom, right? If you believe this

to be the bottom, which I think is fairly bullish and who knows, right?

We're talking about all these risks. um assuming that sailor is going to blow up. But I mean it's the year 226. He still hasn't blown up. Maybe he pulls it

up. But I mean it's the year 226. He still hasn't blown up. Maybe he pulls it off. Maybe Bitcoin goes to trillion like millions of dollars. Uh maybe Stretch

off. Maybe Bitcoin goes to trillion like millions of dollars. Uh maybe Stretch has a trillion dollar, you know, market cap or, you know, like all all that usage and you know, Bitcoin goes up by 50% in perpetuity. Uh and you know, the

Stretch yield is like 15%. Um and there's all this product like demand for it and it works. Who knows, right? Um we all talk about what happens when sailor blows up. We don't often ask about what happens if Sailor makes it, right? Um,

blows up. We don't often ask about what happens if Sailor makes it, right? Um,

and who knows, maybe he does make it. Hard to imagine. But anyways, if you like this uh content and analysis, make sure to check out the premium Discord. I

post three videos every single week and you join a crypto community. Pretty

humble, pretty uh pretty uh pretty wholesome. Uh you don't have to, right?

Um maybe your money is better off longing Bitcoin or like longing stretch or something. Uh which which is fine, but you know, if you're interested, make

or something. Uh which which is fine, but you know, if you're interested, make sure to check that out. Uh so that being said, let's talk about what I'm doing, my portfolio. Uh, so I, you know, I've been buying Bitcoin in hype. Um, kind of

my portfolio. Uh, so I, you know, I've been buying Bitcoin in hype. Um, kind of top lasted hype, honestly. Um, not the best entry, but I want a position and I'm just okay just, yeah, owning it. And I'm also owning onchain versions of

Stretch because I'm a DGEN. Um, I think onchain stretch is interesting. You

know, you open up this Bitcoin backed yield to all this onchain capital that's searching for yield. Onchain yield is like dead right now. It's really, really bad. Um, so you know, if all these onchain stable coins just like go into

bad. Um, so you know, if all these onchain stable coins just like go into stretch, then I mean that could reignite some DeFi stuff and that can also I mean that is literally money going into Bitcoin, right? That's kind of

interesting. And if the markets do go up, then I might start hedging my spot

interesting. And if the markets do go up, then I might start hedging my spot bags with potential shorts. I'm thinking Salana over ETH at this point um because Salana has supply issues like with the FDX estate sales from 2023. Um those are

those started like unlocking last year. So, I feel like Salana is a better short than to eat, but I mean, I'm not going to talk about shorting right now. Only

good vibes from here. Uh, this is the thing I'm farming, Apex. It's backed by the Defi DevC Corp guys, which is the Salana, which may not inspire that much confidence, but um I've talked to them. They seem like, you know, um they know what's up. Um I mean, it's risky, so I'm not going to spend too much time on

what's up. Um I mean, it's risky, so I'm not going to spend too much time on this, but that's what I'm doing. Do your own research. It's riskier. It's more

liquid. Um, but yeah, they might have governance tokens and um, who knows, maybe I'll sell them. I probably will. Do your own research. Invalidation for

my bullish Bitcoin thesis uh, is if stretch growth and adoption slows. But

like I said, two years of of like cash runway, 11.5% yield seems good enough for me, right? Um, if anything, you can be an extractive farmer and just get in there for a few months, get the yield, leave, and just live your life. Maybe

that's the correct trade here. Uh, and of course I think generally we're at this stage of the cycle where I think we can generally agree that it's probably a good time to buy over a long enough time horizon. But why would I buy now when I

can buy in Q4? You know, why why buy now when, you know, there's like one more leg lower? Uh, which I I I think is how people are feeling now. Um, and of

leg lower? Uh, which I I I think is how people are feeling now. Um, and of course, I can't really predict if whether or not there's going to be one leg lower. Uh, or we bottomed. I mean, my bet is that we bottomed because of

leg lower. Uh, or we bottomed. I mean, my bet is that we bottomed because of the reemergence of Sailor, but who knows? Maybe, you know, there's like some I mean, anything can happen, right? Um, but I think right now is the time to

think more longer term and or instead of trying to, you know, perpetrate or, you know, get some quick gains. Uh, because real wealth is made in bare markets. You

know, uh, people that buy Bitcoin at low prices in a bare market and just hold for a few years, you know, like they're the ones that make a lot of money, right? um the people that trade meme coins at the top maybe some of them make

right? um the people that trade meme coins at the top maybe some of them make money but generally it's a PVP game uh where most people end up losing and the reason I bring up the fear and greed is uh on the left hand here left hand side

here you see the 30-day forward returns uh whenever the fear and greed hits above 20 sorry below 20 or above 80 so fear versus euphoria right um so you can kind of see there and then on the right you see the 60-day forward returns for

the same thing so generally you know your forward or your one to two month returns are much better when the markets are pumping, right? Because momentum and it's not that good when the markets are dumping, when there's a lot of fear.

However, if you zoom out and you look at the mean and medium forward returns once, you know, we're in extreme fear. It's a lot better when we're in extreme greed. Of course, this is like, you know, 12 to like 18 months out. Um, I

greed. Of course, this is like, you know, 12 to like 18 months out. Um, I

think we're kind of in here where, yeah, I mean, if you start buying now, you might make some money, you might lose some money. Uh, but generally, I mean, at least you get to start the clock for your long-term cap gains. Um, and you know, you kind of simplify your portfolio so you're not constantly worrying about, oh my god, the markets are green. Oh, did I miss the bottom?

Uh, and then like stressing your out that like stressing yourself out that way. Um, I think there's nothing wrong with just dollar cost averaging and, you

way. Um, I think there's nothing wrong with just dollar cost averaging and, you know, using your Bitcoin as collateral, borrowing against, you know, farm stuff.

Um, or just DCA spot and just chill that way. And this is like something I think about but know the like actually like the riskiest time in markets is when people are telling you that it's not risky to buy you know uh it's like oh

guaranteed Q4 all season time to buy altcoins not risky at all. I mean no like that's literally when things are riskiest. And the least risky times in markets are when people are telling you that things are going to blow up. You

know it's like why like why are you buying now bro? Like don't you know that we're going to go to 45k in Q4? Uh I mean they could be right but you know it also represents market positioning and sentiment that

people are like not I guess I guess like buying or allocated right and I mean I shared this in September. Hopefully this helped people take some profits or something but um you know let me just read this. For one thing we usually act too quickly when we are trying to make money and too slowly when we are trying

to protect our money. When you are pressed to make a decision ask yourself am I doing this to protect my money or to make more money? If the answer is to protect money, act more quickly. If the answer revolves around making more

money, act slowly. I think we are in this act slowly phase. And generally, I think if you're just buying good coins, um you know, fading bad coins. I mean,

easier said than done, but I think, you know, this is the time to just, you know, I mean, okay, may not not financial advice of course, right? Um

but for me, right? Um I just see back to this, right? uh

like how are people positioned fairly lightly. Who's left to sell? I mean,

there's always people left to sell, but who's left to buy? I mean, there's people that's in the sidelines and also Sailor uh just like blasting tops with leverage. And if this works, then Tom Lee can do it, and then that can just

leverage. And if this works, then Tom Lee can do it, and then that can just cause like some crazy reflexivity. It's something to think about. Um I think in bare markets, people often, you know, worry about all the things that could go

wrong, will go wrong. And in a bull market, we only think about things that could go right will go right. I really encourage everyone to do the opposite, right? Um in a bare market, think about what could go right and in a bull

right? Um in a bare market, think about what could go right and in a bull market, think about what could go wrong. And I think that type of mindset maybe, right, it'll uh lead you to miss up like miss on like the insane gains of like just like going 10x long some memecoin. U but also, you know, the you know, the

reason my premium discord is called a humble farmer army is I mean I'm not always humble, right? in the sense that I take on like leverage sometimes. Um I

long like Farcoin or something, right? Uh but you know, it's it's always nice to know what to do. Uh in in the sense of okay, like you know, if I go into cash, there are these types of yields. Um if I want digital credit, I can long

stretch on my brokerage account or I can do it on chain if I want like amplified to generate exposure. Anyway, I mean, okay. Anyways, um I hope people are holding out well. Um I think stretch, you know, I think it takes some time uh

to understand stretch. I encourage everyone to at least I mean, everyone owes it to themselves, right? Um to try to understand it. Um because I think it's a really fascinating product. And let me know what you think. Are you

buying Stretch? Are you farming Stretch? Are you fading me? Right? Am I the counter signal again? Who knows? Maybe I am. Um but I don't know. I'm feeling

optimistic about the future. I'm buying. We'll see how it goes. Thank you guys for watching. See you another time. Bye-bye.

for watching. See you another time. Bye-bye.