The Crowded Exit

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Capital Flows live stream on Monday.

What is the date today? March 16th.

We have geopolitical risk in the markets, a lot of premiums across assets, dispersion, some liquidations,

all of it happening just as we're moving into FOMC, which is perfect. So, there

are a lot of different moving parts that I want to cover today in the live stream. I have a bunch of slides that I

stream. I have a bunch of slides that I want us to cover. I'm going to even go over some research reports that I've been walking through and I even want to just walk through a couple of them with

you and really lay out how I'm thinking about the markets right now and the research that's being put out. And here is the goal. By the end of this entire live

goal. By the end of this entire live stream, I want to be able to share how I'm thinking holistically about the changes in macro, the changes in markets, the bets that I'm thinking

about taking, why I think about taking those bets, and how they all form together. So, the

together. So, the the first thing that I want to I want to start with is the chart that I have here

of crude. And also, uh, I'll let

of crude. And also, uh, I'll let everyone know if if you're if you're watching this video on Twitter, I'd really appreciate it if you guys are able to reshare it, uh, you know, like

and retweet it, all that good stuff. And

then give me one second. Hang on.

Okay. Uh, you know, like and reshare on Twitter. I'd really appreciate that. And

Twitter. I'd really appreciate that. And

then one of the things that I um I actually had subscriber who I talked to pretty frequently um on here and he's been watching a lot of the models that I've built. You know, here here are some

I've built. You know, here here are some of the models that I've built. These are

all available on the Capital Flows website. I'll I'll break them down for

website. I'll I'll break them down for you. I'll show you where they're at. But

you. I'll show you where they're at. But

he, you know, saw all the things I was building out on the dashboard right here and said, "Oh, wow. This is really cool.

It would be really nice if we had these in Trading View. I don't really build anything in Trading View these days. Uh

maybe some stuff here and there. Um but

you know, all of these and saying, "Oh, all these things are really awesome."

And he went worked with Claude Code and built a ton of indicators and then pulled them all together and then sent them to me and said I could share them

with everyone. And so I will be sending

with everyone. And so I will be sending out that entire list. I'll also link uh you know kind of his social media and stuff like that if you want to follow

him. He's a really solid younger guy who

him. He's a really solid younger guy who is now, you know, doing a lot more trading. I think he's doing an excellent

trading. I think he's doing an excellent job at like learning macro, understanding a lot of these moving parts, and he's building a lot, adding a ton of value. I've really benefited from his work, actually. I've found it really

helpful. I love being able to interact

helpful. I love being able to interact with people and learn all the different ways that people are seeing things in the markets, shifting, all these

different things. So, if you were here,

different things. So, if you were here, I'll send out the link for that later today. And by the way, here on the main

today. And by the way, here on the main website, if you're at capital flows.com, click on this and go down.

I'm going to actually put the link for that here. Here are all the Trading View

that here. Here are all the Trading View models that I have. You can go to these right now and save these yourself, right? You can click on this link. It

right? You can click on this link. It

will bring up this exact tab and you told me here and click copy. You make a copy of that chart and then all of these indicators are yours 100% free. They're

all yours. You can do whatever you want with them. You can go give them to

with them. You can go give them to someone else if you wanted to. And so,

whoops. Hang on one second.

And so here, you know, here are all the models and tools I would be using. If

you don't have a Bloomberg, you want to use all of these. You want to download all of them and understand how to use them, especially the Seaball tool, especially Quick Strike, especially liquidation nation. You know, Jared just

liquidation nation. You know, Jared just put out a new video today. I've really

appreciated all the value he's added to me and all the ways that he's helped me think about factors, equity, sector dispersions, a lot of that stuff. A lot

of the different things that he's shared has been really instrumental in my thinking. And I actually want to start

thinking. And I actually want to start on his website analytics dashboard for liquidation nation. If you want this,

liquidation nation. If you want this, it's liquidationnation.ai.

it's liquidationnation.ai.

Throw that in your browser. You can make a free account right now. All this is free and you can go to all of the different factor breakdowns they have.

I'll let you know that in the entire space in general overall, no one else has provided this type of value besides

Jared. when you are actually quantifying

Jared. when you are actually quantifying these factors, you'll realize um that it is actually very difficult to go through all of these factors and say okay you

know in terms of the they have a lot of beta products on here but in terms of all of these factor spreads right where you have AI adopters that are early

adopters versus the AI let's go to I know there's a disrupted by AI one.

Let me find it right here because this one is very interesting.

Let's see. Actually, I'd like to do China Tech because that's an interesting one.

So, AI early adopters which is going to primarily be in the United States. Um,

and that's what I'm guessing versus Chinese. Or we can kind of go to the AI

Chinese. Or we can kind of go to the AI early adopters versus let's see here.

I know there's a I mean you could tell look look at all these factors like the amount of factors here is just

insane. And let me go to

insane. And let me go to private credit.

Oh, you can't see. If you click on this button right here, it's not showing on the screen when you guys are watching it. If you click on this button right

it. If you click on this button right here, it shows you a list. I mean,

there's probably hundreds here, right, of different factors that you can go to.

So, here's here are two that I want to I want to really lock in on. So, we have early adopters. Here's just 2025 AI

early adopters. Here's just 2025 AI early adopters versus the S&P minus MAG7. So, we're saying, oh, how is the

MAG7. So, we're saying, oh, how is the AI trade working relative to the index?

And you can tell that, you know, as we moved into 2026, it's come down a little bit right here. [snorts] That's pretty key because a lot of these flows have

shifted, right? And you can tell that

shifted, right? And you can tell that this move down is all the AI early AI adopters have shifted a little bit in the flows. And you can go through all of

the flows. And you can go through all of these different things on here. And I

want to I'm going to pull these together as we move through. But what you want to do is as we're going through this live stream, you want to have a couple things up. Have liquidation nation up. Pull up

up. Have liquidation nation up. Pull up

the Substack. Okay? Because we're going to go through this crowded exit report that I that I shared. We're going to go through that and then pull up Trading

View because these models, how they work, the flows that we're seeing in markets right now, that's what I want to cover. And a lot of this starts with the

cover. And a lot of this starts with the crowded exit report that I shared recently. And here is the starting point

recently. And here is the starting point that I had. There's several different factors in markets right now. But

markets are pricing geopolitical risk premium as a short-term inflation accelerates. So this is pushing rate

accelerates. So this is pushing rate expectations lower, right? less cuts in the forward curve and raising the stagflationary impulse in the market.

The dollar is strengthening as a result of this as short-term inflation expectations are rising while real rates are rising on the long end. So this com

combination has a mechanical support to the currency.

So if where we'll go to this regime itself on my dashboard, but this is the chart that I shared last night where you

can see right here you have the s the Dixie the DXY index in orange rallying and moving up. You also have the 10-year rate in blue right here moving up and

then you have stocks down. This regime

does not occur very often. It is

actually something that doesn't occur a ton of times, right? In the back test that I have here, it occurs 4% of the the time. Typically, stocks are going up

the time. Typically, stocks are going up and then when stocks are going down, typically you have rates moving down.

So, it it's about this inflationary bare market. And especially as it relates to

market. And especially as it relates to where we're at with crude right now, crude has injected this massive amount of premium in the entire system. And

this premium, here's a chart of it, is at an extreme right now. You'll notice

right here in white, you have crude put skew or I'm excuse me, call skew, which is basically

saying calls are more expensive than puts in terms of options or the premium is higher. Now, could they go higher?

is higher. Now, could they go higher?

Yes, premiums can always go higher, but what we're saying is in terms of the premium versus discount and things like that, they're incredibly high right now.

Also, notice that this has dragged up put skew in yellow for the S&P 500 and then also put skew in the Euro USD. So

simply put, when you had this geopolitical risk premium in markets, it began to increase a little bit of stagflation in the system, not a ton,

but a little bit to the extent and this happened and it overlapped with and and this is actually the let me pull this up. This is the chart that I shared in

up. This is the chart that I shared in the report last night. I'm actually

going to switch to this report.

In the report last night, I shared this chart. And you'll actually probably want

chart. And you'll actually probably want to save this chart because mapping this relationship is going to frame how to think about this kind of stagflationary

impulse idea.

Let me go.

Here we go. Notice right here in blue we have NFP, which is showing the labor market.

NFP on a month-over-month basis turned negative right here in blue. That's the

most recent print. And then you can see the three-month rate of change in NFP has basically been flat. It hasn't been

that strong. And so the idea here is

that strong. And so the idea here is that the labor market is not as strong as it was during 2022 when the the

impulse was higher. So, let me actually show you right here. If we go to the growths tabs that I have, we go to NFP.

Again, you can pull up any of this data on the FRED website. You can even ask the you can ask Claude Code to pull it up for you.

Here is in July of 2022, right? So,

think about it. A May April, December, February 2022, March, April, May of 2022. The the labor market, this is not

2022. The the labor market, this is not impacted by inflation. These are jobs that are adding or getting taken away.

The labor market was growing on a 5% basis on a year-over-year basis. That is

is massive. And so the idea here is that we are seeing a massive growth in the labor market during 2022.

And so when you have an inflationary impulse, then it's not, you know, you can actually have the Fed raise rates.

But when you have a stagflationary impulse into weaker growth, that's why equities can sell off a little bit.

Notice that here's the same period of time right here. And you know, I actually think that I could find the data on here. Non-farm payrolls.

I know this is the data. Let's see if Oh, yep. This will work.

Oh, yep. This will work.

So, again, you can pull up any of this data yourself if you want to.

All right. Notice right here, non-farm payrolls on a month-over-month basis grew by 845,000 jobs when inflation was accelerating. at

the lows here, even in the lower side of the month-over-month print, we added 287,000 jobs. And so you had inflation

287,000 jobs. And so you had inflation accelerating during this time and the the Fed hiking into that. What caused an

inflationary bare market. However, the

risk to growth was much lower because you'll notice, look where we're at now.

If we look at where growth is now, we are now negative in non-farm payrolls and crude is back up to these levels.

So, we're at a much more challenging spot, which is why understanding how to thread the needle, having some more

nuance in these changes is going to be absolutely important. Um, on real quick

absolutely important. Um, on real quick question from someone, can you post the CV rate cut model? I don't think it's listed anywhere. If you go into

listed anywhere. If you go into the educational primer section, which I'll actually show you guys this in real time um on uh on the model that I'm running, but if you scroll down, it'll

be in one of these models right here.

So, if you just go through these, save all of them, it'll be in one of those.

And then for for what is that rate cut model? What are we even talking about? I

model? What are we even talking about? I

think I actually have it here. Yeah,

right here. So, if if we look at where we sit with rate cuts right now.

The Fed 3.64.

All right.

And I'll actually keep NFP there.

And we'll go to the Z6 contract and we will put the central bank monitor on there which maps how many rate cuts we're getting. And

again, this indicator, if you just go to the free section of the the substack right here in these models, it'll be there. And if you come here, you can see

there. And if you come here, you can see that we went down to this level where we priced almost no cuts this year. If we

move back up to this level, the market will be pricing 25 bips of cuts. You

know, if you ever wonder, oh, how in the world do people know how changes in Fed expectations impact things like

long-term nominal interest rates or things like that? So, you know, for example, when you have these changes in the Z6

contract, these changes are connected to things like the five-year interest rate, right, which is moving. And if we just actually flip it because we're looking

at a contract, it moves in lock step with this, right? There's a spread, but it moves in lock step with these contracts, which makes sense because these contracts are pricing what the Fed is going to do. And the five-year

interest rate is all about what's the Fed going to do plus some premium for five years out, right? And so

understanding, you know, when people say, "Oh, well, what's the market pricing? How does that, you know,

pricing? How does that, you know, connect to changes in the market?"

There's always, and this actually connects to the premium that we see in the market right now. You always need to ask what is the market pricing and what do I think will take place? Because

right now, I I I'll give you an example of how you kind of begin to think about the trade right here. Right now, there's likely limited downside to price hikes

this year. If we moved below this level

this year. If we moved below this level right here in this contract and we came down here into this box, the forward curve would be pricing hikes for this

year. So, hikes.

year. So, hikes.

So what you want to ask is what is the market pricing and how is that likely to be realized or not realized that's what all of us are asking and any of us that are in markets and using any type of

information or fundamental data or coming up with views for things we are always trying to decompose a time series to say what is it implying in the time series what is the expectation the sofur

contracts have a very explicit expectations because they have to settle at these levels right and so when you settle at these levels it makes something very explicit but you have to

remember these contracts are meant to settle at December 2026 so there's a time on it a thing you know some other contract like an equity it doesn't have a period of time that it settles in

right it goes on for perpetuity until the company goes bankrupt or you know the capital stack gets changed or it can just go on forever I guess theoretically or technically it can um if if you think

the company's going to exist forever so but you when you have these specific speific temporal markers for the derivatives. This is why derivatives are

derivatives. This is why derivatives are so important in the market. People like

to share all these charts about derivatives going up and the open interest for them going up. Derivatives

are the most one of the most important things in the market to have price discovery because you're able to more efficiently quantify the changes that are taking place. If the sofur contract

moved down here, the market would be pricing hikes. Let's say the mar the the

pricing hikes. Let's say the mar the the contract moved down here and inflation hadn't risen or anything like that. I

would view that as the market giving me an opportunity to take the other side of some type of trade. It would be traders here saying, "Hey, I think that we're going to have hikes this year." And I

would say, "I don't think we are." And

so I would likely buy that from them if we move down to, you know, this level right here. If crude didn't make a new

right here. If crude didn't make a new high and we moved down to this level, I would likely buy a bunch of Z6 contracts and then I would say, okay, I think we're going to at the very least settle

here or move back up to 25 basis points because I think the Fed is going to cut at least 25 bips this year. And then you can begin to say, okay, I think the Fed

is going to do this or that and here's how I express it versus what's the market pricing versus what you should do. So, for example, if this contract

do. So, for example, if this contract goes to right here in this little box right here, if the if this contract goes right here into this box and I say, "Oh, well, I

think the Fed is going to cut by 25 bips this year." Well, that doesn't really

this year." Well, that doesn't really matter because it's already priced to perfection. If it's already pricing 25

perfection. If it's already pricing 25 bips of cuts right here, then me getting long and saying, "Oh, I think this is going to stay here," is a losers game for me. I need to find asymmetry

for me. I need to find asymmetry somewhere. So that's really where you

somewhere. So that's really where you want to decompose something and say what's the expectations that it has around it and is this mispriced? And so

the sofur contracts in macro or you know really if you know you're using your IBO or any other stir contracts or anything like that if you're talking about macro that's where you always start is where

are the short-term interest rate contracts and how are they pricing things.

So, this is a great question um by James and um I actually need to see if I can get him on the stream. I don't know if he's

able to right now.

So one of the things that is about these changes in rate expectations and these contracts is actually you know how do we

know if something is mispriced and the the way that you figure that out is with this dashboard. And I I'll walk you

this dashboard. And I I'll walk you through this model a little bit by saying where are we at with inflation?

And this actually connects to the to the situation that we're in right now. Um,

so let me shift to this dashboard. Let's go to the CPI

this dashboard. Let's go to the CPI model right now. Actually, I'm going to start with the PPI model just because PPI has more sensitivity to the transportation and energy costs. Right

now, PPI is probably going to accelerate a little bit. We already kind of know that. Everyone already expects that. on

that. Everyone already expects that. on

PCE and CPI the entire question is is headline going to accelerate? We already

know that or excuse me is core going to accelerate.

So we already know that headline CPI is probably going to accelerate a little bit just because of energy prices. And

if you look at CPI contracts or the inflation swap contracts, they're already pricing a bit of an acceleration and then deceleration right here. So a

little bit of a spike. The reason why these CPI contracts are not more aggressively higher, and I'll give you an example of what it

would look like for them to be higher.

Let me There we go. There we go. If CPI

contracts or I'm sorry, inflation swaps, uh, which are I mean, I guess technically CPI contracts. If we look at the longer term rate of inflation

expectations, we look at inflation swaps right here. They were rallying really

right here. They were rallying really aggressively for two-year two-year swaps, fiveyear swaps during that time, and even 30-year swaps during that time.

Now, you'll notice that we have a little bit of an impulse like last time, but you'll notice that 10-year swaps are actually not that aggressively rallying

right here. They've actually fallen a

right here. They've actually fallen a little bit and the ones 10 spread and the ones 30s, twos, fives, those have all been falling, which means that we

have some short-term inflation risk. The

entire question we need to ask is how extreme is the short-term inflation risk? If we can know how extreme the

risk? If we can know how extreme the short-term inflation risk is, then we can begin to understand how much risk there is in markets. And

this comes to the couple charts that I want to share and it will connect with some of these changes in AI. But when we look at

where we're at with the with the changes in V right here, we

have pretty significant premiums priced in crude, in S&P, and in Eurousd right here on all of these, which means that we're pricing extremes across all of

these right now. Now, you'll also notice this is why I'm actually bullish equities here is because here is a chart of S&P 500 V. You can see that we've

come up a lot right here, just implied V. We're at pretty significant premium.

V. We're at pretty significant premium.

And here is put skew that is moving down where people are bidding up puts and put protection right now. And that has taken

place as this entire inflationary kind of event has happened. And you know, you have the S&P falling back a little bit, right? My view is that even if we are

right? My view is that even if we are going to have another leg lower, we likely need to take out this positioning first. I don't think we're going to have

first. I don't think we're going to have another leg lower, but even if we do, I think we're going to move back up and shake out this positioning because this

put skew right now is traders positioned or at the very least hedged for more downside in the S&P 500. And what you need to ask is, is the geopolitical

situation going to cause more downside in the S&P 500? And if you think the answer is yes, then maybe you should short the S&P. If you think the

geopolitical situation is going to decrease or remain constant, then you probably don't want to short equities right here because there's such

a large premium. And over time, at the end of the day, over time, this premium needs to unwind. So, if the S&P just sits right here above the 61 or 6710

level right here, because of how um just the amount of premium that exists in the market, if people are just holding those hedges, they're losing money on them every single day because of the theta

decay. So, if you've ever bought a put

decay. So, if you've ever bought a put against a position, even if it's in the money, if your if the S&P 500 is not moving down, you're losing money on that

hedge every single day because of the theta decay. Unless one of the other

theta decay. Unless one of the other Greeks is offsetting it, which means that you have to have either ball rise more and people pay a higher premium for that and an entire a higher implied ball

discount or you need to actually have the delta uh or just the index move down so that you have more realization of

that hedge and it bids up the hedge more. In the absence of that, you have a

more. In the absence of that, you have a significant premium right here that you'll probably lose money on every single day. And so, you know, that

single day. And so, you know, that doesn't mean that you shouldn't have it.

It's just about how are you hedging. But

my view is that we're probably making a bottom right here in the S&P and especially the fact that we are remaining above these levels right here.

And you know, you had the nic bid 2% overnight. We're right here. You had

overnight. We're right here. You had

Euro stocks which are actually, you know, Europe and Japan, they're short energy more than the United States. I

mean, we're net exporters of energy, right? We have all of the XLE companies

right? We have all of the XLE companies that are still at highs, right? Which is

big positive. And then you have all of these other countries, they're short oil fundamentally, right? Um, I'm actually

fundamentally, right? Um, I'm actually I'll go over some of the other FX stuff that's very interesting in a couple of reports, but my view is that we're probably going to make a bit of a bottom

here and move higher in the S&P 500. And

here's the reason why. Let's say nothing happens in the geopolitical risk arena.

Nothing happens. You have so much premium right here that could unwind.

Now, if the geopolitical side escalates, then that's very possible. But the the question is how much of that is priced.

Let's say you say oh well if the let's say there's an escalation in on the geopolitical front. What you would need

geopolitical front. What you would need to ask is how much of that is already priced in the market because if you already have any geopolitical escalation priced perfectly and you say, "Oh yeah,

we already traders already know they're already pricing that then any unless something escalates more than what's priced, then we're going to move down,

especially with premiums that are fundamentally mean reverting." And so this is this is really the the situation that we're in right now, which is why

FOMC this month is so important and it's in this report that I I laid out that there's likely to be a crowded exit because FOMC is going to function as a

catalyst for this. If you know, again, I laid out a lot of the ideas for some of this in the live stream yesterday and I I went through things in a lot more depth there. What I really want to focus

depth there. What I really want to focus on is the positioning side of today. And

so one of the things that I said last night is the chart crystallizes.

Crude call skew is blown out. By the

way, you can just go to the sea tool on the CME website. I'll let me just pull it up really fast actually because you know I think this is just so important.

If you are if you don't have a Bloomberg, you should just go to the CME website right here. pull up WTI crude

right here and you can see all of these metrics yourself. You can see the skew

metrics yourself. You can see the skew ratio right like you can see all of this all of these factors right here. So you

have the SEAL index which has been rising relative to crude and the underlying all of this is free. You can

just get this on the website right now.

Put skew is still very elevated or I'm sorry call skew skew is very elevated right here. which means there's a lot of

right here. which means there's a lot of premium in the market. So if this escalation stops, you are going to have a ton of selling pressure in crude. My

view is that you could have a 20% down day in crude just because of how Trump plays things. I mean, he comes out

plays things. I mean, he comes out aggressive and just runs things super hard. So if you don't have a Bloomberg,

hard. So if you don't have a Bloomberg, this should be your best friend every single day. And so on the geopolitical

single day. And so on the geopolitical side, the the question that exists is when is that going to to shift? My view

is that because of the amount of premium that we have in markets, even if it remains constant, we're likely to bid in equities and sell in the dollar a little bit. And that's kind of what I I made a

bit. And that's kind of what I I made a case for right here. What makes this move genuinely unusual is that for all four measures have spiked in unison suggesting that positioning is

crossolateralized across assets rather than idiosyncratic in any single market.

Traders are hedging the same macro thesis simultaneously with crude equities FX which means the trade is crowded from multiple directions at the same time. This is the setup heading

same time. This is the setup heading into FOMC. Now we have a macro catalyst

into FOMC. Now we have a macro catalyst where people are going to unwind hedges.

the pause itself is not the question with the forward curve pricing it as a certainty. You know, I said this last

certainty. You know, I said this last night about 17 basis points being priced. You know, if we actually look at

priced. You know, if we actually look at where we're at in the sofer contract about where how many basis points of cuts we're pricing now,

uh you know, we're actually at 18 and a half bips now right here in the sofur contract. So you can actually see that

contract. So you can actually see that if if we look at the move, we moved up just a little bit. Again, this is very small, right? Overall, it's very small.

small, right? Overall, it's very small.

We've kind of bumped off these lows just a little bit. And again, you can kind of see, let me add the indicator here for the Z6 contract. You know, you can see

if we move up, uh, this is this is the sofur contract itself.

If we move down, this is the same indicator that I had in Trading View.

Right now, we are pricing almost a complete settlement, almost complete pause for the entire year. Now, I think we need to move back up to 25 bips or at the very least normalize a little bit.

As that happens, you're going to have some premiums unwind, especially into FOMC. And let me actually pull up

FOMC. And let me actually pull up another chart from Bloomberg because I think the rhetoric of FOMC is going to be important.

to think about this meeting because the the Fed has actually turned a little bit hawkish in their language in the last prince in

their last uh forward guidance.

But in my view that that stance by the Fed is they're going to look at this situation,

I think, in a very similar way that they looked at the tariffs and they're going to say, "Oh, you know what? This is a short-term supply shock. Um, and

this is not something that you should all worry about." Here's the Fed's forward guidance in their rhetoric. So

you can see that this is them being more dovish in their language. All this is is a natural language learning model that quantifies all the sentiment of the Fed.

You can build this, by the way, if you just go to Claude Code, ask it to pull every single news transcript of Fed

speakers for the last like five years or 10 years and then decompose it into a time series. And then you could say,

time series. And then you could say, "Hey, uh, search the internet at the end of every single day for any Fed speeches and aggregate them all together and then

weight them and run a regression of it against interest rates or the yield curve and you can basically come up with this chart itself. Like super easy to build. Uh, especially if you have clawed

build. Uh, especially if you have clawed code, you could just take a screenshot of this and like feed it in. It'll build

it for you. And so the idea here is that when you have these moves down, that's the Fed becoming more dovish. We need to ask, okay, is that likely or not. Now,

what happened is they've, you know, all of this move up where they become a little bit more hawkish relative to where we are at down here. Um, which I actually think that this was probably a policy mistake, which is why we have the

curve flatten a little bit prior to this geopolitical risk. when you have, you

geopolitical risk. when you have, you know, this move right here, this is all pre the oil prices.

Now, what they're I believe they're going to do this week, and I could be wrong about this, but I believe what they're going to do is they're going to acknowledge the oil prices. They're not

going to cut this week. You know, there was some news about Trump saying, "Oh, maybe they'll cut this week." Not going to happen.

We're going to have likely in my view them look through the oil prices and then they're going to say, "Oh, you know what? Like even though the oil prices

what? Like even though the oil prices are here, we think that because core CPI is still lower, you know, we're not going to, you know, have our rhetoric move above this level." and they're not

looking at this level, but we're just saying broadly speaking, they're not going to turn more hawkish because if they turn more hawkish relative to what the market is pricing right now, then yeah, you could price price maybe hikes

this year. The issue with that is that

this year. The issue with that is that Trump is going to replace Powell and the market's already looking through what

Trump is going to do with Powell. And so

what you want to think about is how exactly are those moving parts expressed in these premiums. And let me pull up

the cross-sectional momentum indicator.

If you are trying to understand cross-sectional momentum, which is just all it means is the relative momentum between stuff. uh you know the the

between stuff. uh you know the the problem with with this stuff is if you just took the outright returns of the S&P and subtracted them from like crude

it wouldn't work really well because you know the the crude prices gapped up 20% and you know the S&P is probably not going to gap up or gap down by 20%. Um

especially on that news and stuff like that. So you have to adjust it. this

that. So you have to adjust it. this

indicator right here, which you can download in the free educational primer section right here. It's this first indicator. You can download all of that.

indicator. You can download all of that.

And so it's on this part of the website, main page right here. You click on this, scroll down, go there, you can pull up this. All I did is add the base security

this. All I did is add the base security of crude, added ES, the Russell, NASDAQ, ZN, ZT, and Bitcoin here. And then you put volatility scaled right here. So, we

use ball adjusted returns to look at things so that they're like for like, you know, anytime you talk about cross-sectional momentum, you can go read a bunch of SSRN papers on how to

think about cross-sectional momentum.

There's a great actually podcast I think it's on flirting with models on uh multivariant trend following and uh it's

it's a great uh breakdown of how to think about cross-sectional momentum but you can see here you know I have crude in the top here all these other tickers right here and then we're using ball

adjusted so we have like for like right now crude has been outperforming shocker I know crude has been outperforming all

of these assets. Now the question is right here when we look at crude prices right here we have seen crude prices gap

up during this time and you know they they really aggressively rose but then as we moved into this high right here the cross-sectional momentum collapsed

and you can actually see the cross-sectional momentum collapsing before the outright price collapsed. In

simple terms, crude was beginning to fall relative to these other assets first. And typically speaking, you will

first. And typically speaking, you will have cross-sectional moves occur at inflection points. And so you can see

inflection points. And so you can see that we move down all the way right here. We begin to consolidate and you

here. We begin to consolidate and you actually had, you know, the cross-sectional momentum begin to move up against these assets before it kind of broke out right here again and pushed

back up. And now we've kind of come back

back up. And now we've kind of come back down. So here's how I would be thinking

down. So here's how I would be thinking about this type of situation. We

obviously have the high right here in crude, but I would also be watching very closely this level right here because you'll

notice this is when we began to roll over more and have this lower momentum right here. Now, it's it's likely that

right here. Now, it's it's likely that we need some actual news to shift the entire situation on this side of things.

So, you need an actual durable move of news to set a clearer top. But, we're

already seeing a little bit of a rollover here. And, you know, I think

rollover here. And, you know, I think that there's, you know, I wouldn't want to get short yet just because I want to see more of a news catalyst that shifts

things. But we already know that we're

things. But we already know that we're likely at the bottom end of the range in positioning on these factors, right?

There's a reason why in the S&P right here, we're at the bottom end of the range for positioning. And then also for crude, kind of top end of the range for crude va, right? So you're you're watching that right there as well, which

is why when you kind of have these things right here on cross-sectional momentum, you know, you're you're looking at multiple things that are occurring at the same time. And I think it's possible for crude to to roll over.

And if that happens, you're going to have a really aggressive bid in equities, Bitcoin, and other things.

Another factor that's kind of connected to this is the fact that as crude has has had this move like this,

Bitcoin has actually maintained its bid.

And notice right here, let me actually see if I can pull up the articles that I wrote or excuse me the tweets that I shared

on the Bitcoin side because my view is that when when we had these changes in Bitcoin that took place

um and the market didn't it rejected the lows. Here we go.

lows. Here we go.

Here's one of the tweets that I put out.

You know, right here I was saying, you know, Bitcoin can't seem to make a new low on the geopolitical risk. So, notice

right here when you had Bitcoin, you know, hold its level right here. But

what happened during that time? You

actually had crude was bidding during this time.

Let me build this chart out a little bit more. You had crude bidding during this

more. You had crude bidding during this time. It pushed down Bitcoin a little

time. It pushed down Bitcoin a little bit, but then Bitcoin just regained its same level and showed resilience and then made another high right here and is

now making another high above that level. And that's why even prior to this

level. And that's why even prior to this tweet, I said over here, hey, every catalyst, you know, right here, every catalyst that's happened over the last

two weeks seems to not be able to cause Bitcoin to sell off further, right? And

so all of the things that took place over this period of time were not able to cause Bitcoin to sell off further.

And that's why, you know, I was kind of talking about here, bullish equities, bullish, you know, probably Bitcoin conviction and hype and purr especially.

And you'll notice right here in hype, we're now, you know, bidding and we're at a new high on the day. Same thing

with PUR. I mean, we're pushing up right here. Purr continues to be the largest

here. Purr continues to be the largest position.

Perr continues to be the largest position that I have. And I think that it's going to continue to aggressively bid just because of all the changes that

are taking place in the decentralized space. I think the the per play is kind

space. I think the the per play is kind of a leveraged bet on all three and it's actually outperforming, right? So when

you have hype here, I mean the fact that hype is rallying during the crude move, I mean that tells you a ton. If you have

an asset that benefits from geopolitical risk, one of the most important things that you can note for a signal because once equities bid, what do you think hype is going to do? It could have a 10%

20% upday when equities really bid and if Trump comes out on some news that says hey we're done with the war in Iran or we're shifting things or whatever it might be you could have a massive bid

massive bid and so the the crude side is going to be very important to watch right here in my view on let me move through actually I want to go through a

couple charts on hip three let me pull up. Here we go.

Okay. So, if you don't have this website saved, it's hyperscanner.asxn.xyz.

If you just type in hyperscanner, I think it comes up. Um, let's see if this Let's see if this reloads

right here. HIPP 3 volume for those who

right here. HIPP 3 volume for those who don't know is all about how exactly things are or how exactly

the volume is on Hyperlid for assets that are TRDFI assets on the blockchain.

And so notice right here, HIP 3 volume overall daily volume. Uh it actually drops off on the weekends, which I actually think is kind of funny um because people talk about it being the main thing on the weekend. uh but you

know we we continue to have these spikes during the week of volume and overall open interest continues to scale up and then if you look at hip 3 daily volume

versus total it's only been increasing and then same thing hip 3 daily open interest is a percentage of all it's only been increasing when you have this

happen this is why hyperlquid deviates from Bitcoin in its correlation so when you have more and more percentage and

this moves to 50% plus you are going to have a complete decoupling of hyperlquid from Bitcoin and traditional crypto markets because more volume will be put

through that is connected to traditional assets than it will be on crypto assets which is supposed to be the entire point

of a decentralized exchange and so I would be watching these very closely if you're long hyperlid I remain long I'm watching these every day and I think they're going to be a critical factor as

we move into the next couple of uh couple of months. All right, I have several other things that I want to cover on the liquidation nation

dashboard and a lot of that connects to where we are in this geopolitical risk and how it's impacting assets. So on the

day today we have the top factors actually and bottom factors right here.

are the ones under pressure. NASDAQ

vault is down and crude itself is down on the day. And then you also have things like software versus software

versus semis. So let me see if we can

versus semis. So let me see if we can replicate this very simply. I mean this is not going to be perfect but you know

if you look at the software ETF versus the semis ETF that's down in the day. I

I'm watching that ratio every single day because when you have this shift back and forth between softwares and semis it is an indication of hardware versus

software flows. So just remember in the

software flows. So just remember in the entire AI play right now there is this entire divergence taking place between software and hardware and that the

hardware side is pricing a pretty significant premium on companies like Nvidia but they hold all the cards whereas the software side I think there's a little bit more normalization that needs to take place uh before you

know they can really shine more because they need to integrate with all these new tools and their data needs to kind of come to the forefront a bit as Well,

all right. On the

all right. On the other side of things, let's see.

Factors to own.

This is kind of that very similar dynamic here. Okay. Here's here's kind

dynamic here. Okay. Here's here's kind of what I wanted to focus on right here on the see cumulative factor returns. Yes, this

is it. Okay. So

cumulative factor returns all of the factors that we have and I want to start scrolling through these and go through a couple. So go through a couple. So

couple. So go through a couple. So

the strong balance sheets I want to do weak balance sheets as well. Let's go

through none first on these and then let's do none on this and then let's see if we can.

All right. You can see right here that I'm trying to see if we can expand. Here

we go.

Okay.

Since end of 2025, we have had in terms of, you know, what's what's up or down, weak and strong balance sheets. You've

had the weak balance sheets actually outperform just a little bit. But a lot of the the changes that have taken place have more in my view to do with let's

see if we can do all the AI plays and all the changes there. So, let me pull up capex changes

and capex versus buybacks. Here we go.

And then also AI winners.

And then let's also do AI private credit. That actually sounds

credit. That actually sounds interesting.

And then let's do actually I want home builders on here. I

think that's actually going to be interesting. I think it's something that

interesting. I think it's something that people are still not talking about as much. the fact that uh you know

much. the fact that uh you know homebuilders right here have kind of pulled back a little bit in the most recent pullback, but if you

look at XLR, it's actually holding its highs. Just remember, everyone talked

highs. Just remember, everyone talked about how oh, housing is going to do uh you know, commercial real estate's going to do horrible relative to housing and stuff like that. I mean, the XLR chart just looks like it wants to make a break

to all-time highs. That's what it looks like to me. Uh same with like utilities.

I mean utilities are up on the day right now. Really close to making another

now. Really close to making another alltime high as well. XLI seems like it's just primed for another leg higher

as well. And so in liquidation nation

as well. And so in liquidation nation right here we have the primary names that have come down is

all the AI private credit. And then when we have all these other names, we have the homebuilders, they're down year to date, we have or since the beginning of

December. And then the capex versus

December. And then the capex versus buybacks, they're up right now. So all

the people that, you know, for example, all all the companies that are saying, "Oh, let me, you know, have, you know, put money out into capex instead of buying back my own stock." Those

companies are actually doing well right now. the AI winners are also doing well

now. the AI winners are also doing well as well because you know the the AI capex is is overlapped obviously with AI winners to to a certain extent and then

let's go through a couple other oh this is a cool one the hedge fund unwind index so you can see here in February you have a kind of an unwind in the hedge fund

index right here and then we've come back down right here. So, this will be interesting to see how hedge funds function right now and if they'll get squeezed out of their short position and if they're, you know, really

aggressively net short right now. So, on

the analytics dashboard, I would be watching this every day because I mean, I'm I have this up usually every single day. And then you can also go to the

day. And then you can also go to the shared research section. I haven't I don't think I've published any research on there. I think you can put research

on there. I think you can put research on here um I believe. But I like this because when we're talking about the

entire capex side, you have all the different cases for OpenAI funding dashboard. What's the bull case? What's

dashboard. What's the bull case? What's

the base case? You know, what's their likely revenue conversion and things like that? And then you have, you know,

like that? And then you have, you know, lowquality versus high quality, things like that. And you can go through and

like that. And you can go through and say, let me move Oh, here we go. You can go through and say, well, how many users are we going

to have in these different cases, right?

If we have, you know, millions and millions or billions of users, that can really change. And then conversion rate,

really change. And then conversion rate, annual churn, like all these different kind of metrics that you can analyze.

So, I'm really enjoying those. I think

those are very interesting. And then on the the topic of where we're at with crude and some of these other FX moves and things like that,

here is a very interesting chart from Barclays that I was looking at recently and it focuses on as the Iran conflict drags

on. This is from I believe last week

on. This is from I believe last week um March 10th.

As the Iran Iranian conflict drags on, the key question is whether risk premium has risen enough for a dip buying opportunities to emerge

and then looking at aggregate asset class relationships help sheds light on this first. So we're watching, you know,

this first. So we're watching, you know, at on Monday of last week, you know, oil remains uh unsurprisingly the asset with the largest reaction up 33% since the

start of the conflict. A 6.4 sigma move.

This underscores that oil remains the epicenter of the shock. And notice right here through the lens of sigma moves, oil remains at the epicenter of the shocks. European assets follow. US risk

shocks. European assets follow. US risk

assets lag. the traditional safe haven assets, gold and bonds have yet to react. A lot of this is because there's

react. A lot of this is because there's already so much premium in gold, right?

So, it's not surprising to me that that's taking place. And then on bonds, I mean, they actually did bid originally for the changes in the geopolitical

risk. But if it's stagflationary risk,

risk. But if it's stagflationary risk, you should not expect bids to bond. Bond

bonds don't have any rules around them that say they need to bid during certain periods of time.

It's all about if someone is forced to buy them which primarily happens when real purchasing power is increasing on a

real basis and you are having growth and inflation fall. So for example in the

inflation fall. So for example in the the dashboard that I provided or that I have let me pull it up.

All right. All right. If we go to cross asset, the cross asset dashboard section and we look at the the changes that take place.

Let me go to synthesis.

All right. Notice right here the stock bond regime right here you have growth and inflation. Goldilocks

and Fed put are stagflationary risk, right? And the idea behind this is that

right? And the idea behind this is that growth and inflate are growth and inflation rising. And actually, hang on,

inflation rising. And actually, hang on, let me edit this really fast so that it is a little bit more visual.

So these are the the four different regimes that you would look at. Stocks,

bonds, stagflation, flight safety, stuff like that. And

like that. And interesting. And so I'm going to edit it

interesting. And so I'm going to edit it later. I'll go through that in a second.

later. I'll go through that in a second.

But the idea is that we are in a a period of time where stocks are down, rates are up, dollar is up because of stagflation and it's short term. You

know that my view is that because of where poor CPI is, these moves are unlikely to to persist. And so the the view that I have is that yes, we have a

pretty strong correlation between these.

If you look at the co-variance matrix that I put up here, see in the regimes tab, you know, right here we're at a 67%

strength for the regime. 66% on the day.

So it's kind of strong but not really.

It's not at, you know, 83% or, you know, 86% or 8 90%. which is what happened earlier this year when or in 2024 for

example or this was end of 2024 when we had a lot more strength in the correlation between that regime. So the

the idea, let me pull up this other chart we were at, is that these sigma moves that the Barclays

report is noting are across European equities rates commodities credit US equities, FX and V. And you can see oil is at the top and then we have, you

know, European investment grade CDS. We

have the Euro stocks index and then we have you know European consumer index indices the DAX right you have European

government yields you have the footsie European autos European travel all those things become more expensive why because Europe is short oil they don't produce

oil right then you have US materials and then you have you know European industrials European banks that's why you know in my you you want to watch the countries that especially I mean this is

one of the nice things about the overnight session is that the nicke is up 2% right now Japan and Euro stocks

and Europe and then you know if you're watching uh the DAX and then also the Footsie all of these countries don't

produce oil so they're net short on oil and that means that they're importing it at higher prices and they don't have as

much to offset those costs in a kind of a PPP purchasing power parody basis between different countries. And so I'm watching these in the overnight session

right now because if we have some news by Trump and some selling, you're going to see it probably impact the nicay and euro stocks and the Footsie and the DAX in the overnight session first. And you

know, again, I keep saying this to people, you know, could I be wrong on the timing? Absolutely. You know, I

the timing? Absolutely. You know, I think that's where you need to be careful and have risk management. But

overall, I think there's going to be some type of move maybe this week, maybe next week where Trump is going to come out with some type of, you know, indication about

wherever we're at with the Iran situation. There's so much premium

situation. There's so much premium priced in markets right now from implied ball, especially for the S&P right here with how much put skew

exists that I think that it's it would be very easy to see an incredibly aggressive unwind.

and the other, you know, ideas when you when you have this type of chart right here where you see which ones are leading,

which ones are lagging. Well, watch

these down here too. Watch these

different assets. US financials, US staples, the S&P, European financials, you know, watch all these very closely because these are going to also indicate their sensitivity to things like these

are going to move around a ton. These

will move around too but just not as much. I mean I would be watching gold

much. I mean I would be watching gold because for example it is very possible.

I mean I'm not bearish gold here. I

actually am bullish gold because of all these things that are taking place in the world. But I would not be surprised

the world. But I would not be surprised if there's some Iran news that is bearish for oil. And what happens is

they say oh we're deescalating.

Gold wicks down really fast. flushes out

a bunch of people that tried to bet on gold for geopolitical risk and then just absolutely rips. That's what I would be

absolutely rips. That's what I would be looking for right now. So, if if we are trying to get positioned into or respond to something like that, if gold wicks

down in any type of Iran news, I would be looking to bid it. Same with silver, same with copper because the underlying situations for

them still have remained the same. And

so that's how I'm thinking about the the situation for that. And then if that happens with crude, we're going to have a massive bid.

All right. Excuse me. If that happens with crude, we're going to have a massive bid in equities. All right.

Several final things before we wrap up and I'm going to go over another kind of report that I want to cover. Now here

was just a report that was rel released uh earlier and this is really what the entire investment banking community thinks right now. US stays dominant for

now. Concerns over higher food and oil

now. Concerns over higher food and oil is shaping the FX divide. US uh

exporters, right? You have all of these kind of you know things that are taking place. Oh yeah, here we go. Um,

place. Oh yeah, here we go. Um,

you know, everyone kind of knows about this idea that gold is steady but pressure is a safe haven, right? Real

yields are rising, which is pushing up the dollar, right? Like that's what I covered in the the dashboard yesterday if you watched that. You just scroll

down or I'll scroll down to real interest rates. I mean, real interest rates on the long end, they've been rising right here. That's why the dollar is moving up because real

interest rates are rising right here.

30-year interest rates rising right here. Um 1030s is going to be really

here. Um 1030s is going to be really interesting right here because if that steepens more it could cause another leg up in the dollar. But I'll be watching that because if it flattens in 1030s

reels uh that could definitely begin to put a top in the dollar which I think is especially with how much V is priced in EuroUSD. Again, right here in green is

EuroUSD. Again, right here in green is uh EuroUSD V. And again, you can go to the SEAL tool. Go to the SEAL tool,

right? Go to this tab. You can scroll

right? Go to this tab. You can scroll down right here.

And if you go to FX, you can go to EuroUSD.

This is all free. You can just go to the CME website. They have all their stuff

CME website. They have all their stuff for free. You can go to three-year

for free. You can go to three-year history. We actually go to one year. You

history. We actually go to one year. You

can see the underlying which has come down a lot. Here's Euro USD. It's been

rallying all year. Comes down a lot.

What's happened? V has come up as it's moved down. And then you have the skew

moved down. And then you have the skew ratio has come down. It's so extreme right now. So extreme. And it's pricing

right now. So extreme. And it's pricing in a lot there. That means that if the Fed comes out this week and says, "Hey, we're actually

we actually might cut this year," you better believe that the dollar is probably just going to get nuked. I

think that's that's what's likely to happen. Let me post this chart really

happen. Let me post this chart really fast.

All right, final thing that I want to go over.

I found this chart that I found helpful for oil and it is this is just Bloomberg's weekly piece that they put out and

stuff. And the idea is that Bloomberg,

stuff. And the idea is that Bloomberg, their weekly indicators are still bullish for oil. Shocker. They usually

just bet with momentum no matter what.

But um on the fundamental side right here, we have that right here. And you

say, okay, refinery margins in key refining areas were mixed over the last week. And then you have US refinery

week. And then you have US refinery utilizations rose. So basically more

utilizations rose. So basically more people are producing oil because of these higher prices in the week of March 6th from 89% and were up 4.3% higher

than the same week last year according to the EIA. Canada refinery rates also rose the week of March 3rd. So, we're

we're seeing acceleration of people saying, "Oh, let's refine some more oil." Japanese refinery rates dropped a

oil." Japanese refinery rates dropped a little bit. And then you have Chinese

little bit. And then you have Chinese state-owned refineries, they dropped.

They're operating a bit. And on crude stocks in the week, you have uh in the week to March 6th, land crude oil storage levels um you know, tracked in

the region, they increased. So you have some crude stocks increasing but you know you have really everything focusing on where we at with OPEC and some of the things in the Middle East right on the

demand side I think these are interesting global jet demand for commercial passengers flights is set to fall I think that's interesting because

you know if you look at things like the jets ETF you know you have uh you this move down that's taken place

since crude has risen and you know oil prices have obviously contributed to that but part of it could also just be because people are saying you know what let me just push some travel trips a little bit just because of all this kind

of crazy stuff going on so I think that's you know really interesting and then um a couple other notes here you know in the week for the Euro control

area flights in the Euro control area declined to 96%. So it's not just for the oil,

to 96%. So it's not just for the oil, it's you know flights itself are declining or it's not just from margins but it's also for flights. US transportation

security administration passengers throughput rose to 10.5% of the 2019 average. So clearly some

people are still traveling um on the US security uh administration side. So I

think you know these are little things that I like to look at as well and and all of these connect because energy the energy sector

is still holding its bid right here and you can even have that this is one of the things that I I talked about. I'm

watching crude versus XLE right now because I think that let's let's just do this.

I think that XLE is going to outperform crude here. Very similar to what took took place during this period of time. I would be watching this very

of time. I would be watching this very carefully because if crude starts to outperform XLE, that would be really interesting. Here's

another thing I'll pull up. I want to I want to actually I I had this chart up earlier and I think you guys would find it interesting on where we're at with V or

crude versus XLE.

So, let me pull that up really fast because this is a interesting setup.

Almost there. Hang on one second.

All right.

Boom. All right. Here's a chart of crudevall and XLE right here. And you can see that we're having a massive spread that has

increased where people are really bidding up crude but not XLE bowl, right? And part of that, you know, let

right? And part of that, you know, let me let me just show you a little bit here.

where we're at with V in XLE. You know,

you can see right here that on orange you have XLE. V and XLE is higher than the index right now, right?

And you have S&P V has risen a little bit, but XLE vault, it's kind of stayed in this range. It's increased a little bit. I'm sure Koulsk has has risen in

bit. I'm sure Koulsk has has risen in it. Let me let me pull that chart really

it. Let me let me pull that chart really fast so that you can see that.

Well, that's interesting.

This is actually a very interesting chart because you can see here that this is a 25 delta call minus the

25 delta put in XLE. Let me make sure I get that data. That doesn't be pretty surprising.

Call minus the foot. Yep,

>> that's right. So, what we're seeing is on this side right here, we're not seeing call skew blowout for XLE, which

means that we're not pricing a massive premium in XLE relative to crude. So, it

means that we could see crude move down, but XLE remain high, which is why, which actually makes sense. Um the idea here is that it actually makes sense

that XLE would outperform crude here if the premium unwinds in crude because there's not a massive premium in XLE um even on an equity beta basis. So I think that's that's actually a pretty

interesting trade being long XLE and short crude here and you know having a little bit wider stops and then tightening them after some news. I think

that'd be pretty interesting because you're not betting and I actually wonder Let's do the Jan. Where is it?

Let's do May.

Here's the crude Brent spread.

Also interesting right here. Um

[snorts] the fact that we're already, you know, we kind of move down like this in the crude Brent spread and then we also have XLE and CL like this. That's a

pretty interesting thing that we're seeing this mean revert right here as we know that there's more of a premium in crude than there is in XLE. So you could have mean reversion up here in XLE

versus crude. And you know, you could

versus crude. And you know, you could also have this spread narrow, uh, depending on kind of where where we're at with things. I'd be very interested to see how that kind of plays out. So,

that's something I'm definitely going to be watching as well. Um, and I depending on how things play out, I might put in some orders for this spread. So, we'll

uh we'll kind of see what that what that ends up taking place. All right.

Cool. Well, those are the main ideas that I wanted to cover. Um, I think we're at the hour mark, just over the hour mark. If you are new, I would

hour mark. If you are new, I would encourage you go to the website capitalflows.com.

capitalflows.com.

I will be going through a entire list of models and let me pull up Okay, this is, you know, there's an entire list of models that I'm going to

be sharing. So, if you are a subscriber,

be sharing. So, if you are a subscriber, um, you know, one of the subscribers actually built all of these. He's very

kind. And, uh, I'll be going through all of these models and I'll break them down for you. If you are a subscriber on the

for you. If you are a subscriber on the Substack, go to the main page.

Obviously, become a subscriber. Just

become a free subscriber. Um, and go down to this section right here. I'll

send out an email and then I'll also add the models here in this section tonight.

Um, I gota I got to run right now, but if you are on the website, you'll get the models and I'll I'll go over those and then you can just go through all the research that we're going through every single day here. And so there's going to

be a lot of really interesting things to cover and especially with this entire idea of a crowded exit, FOMC, these tensions the supply side versus core CPI and things like that. So those are the

main ideas that I wanted to cover.

Everything is laid out on capital flows research.com. I will be doing another

research.com. I will be doing another live stream tomorrow at the same time.

I'll send out a link for it tonight. Um

and if you guys have any questions, go ahead and throw them into uh the chat.

and any other questions that you have.

And uh actually, let me run through them really fast for awesome. Thanks, man. I really

awesome. Thanks, man. I really

appreciate the kind words.

Uh you've built a terminal using AI similar to yours, but featuring different proprietary models. Since you

were an inspiration behind it, I'd love your feedback on the work I've done.

Totally, man. If you shoot me a message on Substack or Twitter with a link to it, I'll totally check it out. Um, more

than happy to. If any of you guys build something that's like super cool, I always like if I think it's actually good, I'm not just going to share whatever, but if I think it is actually good and it shares adds value, it can be

a model, it could be analysis, it can be whatever, right? Like you need to have a

whatever, right? Like you need to have a very high bar, especially in today's world.

If you have that, you can send it to me and if I believe that it's something that is like amazing work, I'll just reshare it. I have no issue doing that.

reshare it. I have no issue doing that.

I'm I'm not one of these people that's like trying to only like keep all the stuff for myself. Like if someone is way better at every single single thing that I'm doing. I mean, I would love to just

I'm doing. I mean, I would love to just give them my money and just say, "Hey, why don't you just take my money and analysis and why don't you just do all this stuff?" Like, I'm more than happy

this stuff?" Like, I'm more than happy to to have, you know, to to support everyone else. I think everyone should

everyone else. I think everyone should have a Substack or at least a place where they can share their ideas with their friends or with the people they know and they can get feedback and help each other. So, uh, please send me any

each other. So, uh, please send me any stuff that you have. Uh, if I don't respond, sometimes I don't see messages.

Just keep pinging me and bugging me until I respond. Um, and I always I always try to. So, on the sofa model, it is in this section right here. Go down

to the model section, download all of these. These are all free. And it's in

these. These are all free. And it's in one of these. I'm pretty sure it's in one of those. I'm 100% sure it is.

Awesome. All right, guys. Thank you so much for joining.