The Dark Art Of Copy Trading On Prediction Markets (ft. @Euanker)

What is going on everybody? We are back again for another interview on the prediction market series where we talk to the top traders across prediction markets. Figure out if they can help you

markets. Figure out if they can help you find an edge or a market that might interest you. And we have a very special

interest you. And we have a very special guest today. A top 0.02% polyarket

guest today. A top 0.02% polyarket trader turning 15K into 300K plus.

Without further ado, let's bring him on.

We have Euan. Euan, my friend, how are we doing today?

>> We're doing well. Hello everyone. I'm

Euan. I've um been trading Poly Market for just over a year now and I've turned Yeah, as you say, 15K into just about 370,000 now.

>> Oh man, you got to update the bio. You

[laughter] >> for sure. For sure. But yeah, I thought I'd come on today and talk a bit about how I made that money. Um any advice for others and yeah, my sort of story, I

guess. So, yeah.

guess. So, yeah.

>> Yeah. And I guess I want to start here.

I mean, in the last 17 days, your pin tweet, you made 113,000.

>> Yes, >> that's a that's a crazy um crazy month.

Um well, actually it was a bit less than that, but yeah. So,

>> November 17th to 5 days ago. So, like

one real run.

>> I think it consisted of maybe three bets. Pretty much three bets and then

bets. Pretty much three bets and then then a few small bets in between. But it

was I believe the Gemini 3 release.

>> Yep. um the Google search market. So who

who plays number one in the in the Google year in search and also I'm not too sure there's another one but you see you trade so many marketers you

forget these things. Um but yeah a lot a lot of my edge recently has been in sort of doing deep deep research into potential insiders. You know, sometimes

potential insiders. You know, sometimes you get people that that load it big money into one market and you think, well, maybe these guys are just really stupid or they know something. Um, and

in this in these particular scenarios, they knew something. So, I was basically tracking people that I've tracked before. I've looked through all the

before. I've looked through all the markets they've bet on. I've tried to find old accounts of theirs. Try to see even if I can find a Twitter profile, these sort of things. A lot of work. And

I've been working, you know, one, two weeks on each of these bets. and you

know, you're putting a lot of money on the line and you're just hoping it goes well. But when you, you know, you bet

well. But when you, you know, you bet early, you do all the research, you sort of, you have an idea of how the bet's going to go and it goes that way, it's the best feeling. And also, you know,

you get the money as well, so you can't complain about that. But yeah, so this 17-day period, I made 113K. This is not normal for me, but um a lot of work and I got got the reward for it, I guess.

So yeah.

>> No, I mean, you clearly did. And I have a couple questions along that pathway because it's been interesting to hear the mention market side of things where a lot of people are like, "Yeah, there's not really insiders and a lot of it's trading off vibes and what the previous

precedents been, what the topics have been, things like that." You're on the opposite side of this >> as far as that goes. You're finding

other traders that you're basically replicating and tailing, which I think is extremely extremely interesting. And

because Poly Market's completely on chain, you can do so, right? Like

>> not every platform allows this to see full holder activity. you can find funding sources. I'm a crypton native

funding sources. I'm a crypton native myself. So like using EtherCan in this

myself. So like using EtherCan in this case Polycan and finding the data points I think is a big edge because to your point you did it with Gemini 3 which if you remember

>> the October 15th market there was insiders on it and it went against them.

>> Yeah. So sometimes okay these people that I do track I sort of I was tracking them for a while and now actually one of the posts about these insiders it got like 400k views on Twitter. So that edge is just completely gone now cuz

everyone's trying to track them. But

yeah, I made a lot of money tracking these guys. But they have previously,

these guys. But they have previously, you know, lost a decent amount of money on these open AI markets or Gemini markets because, you know, it happens that tech deadlines, they don't always meet them. Um, this is something that

meet them. Um, this is something that people have an edge in as well. People

think that tech deadlines people they always fail them. as people always fade um Elon Musk with his robot taxi stuff or you know Open AAI with their browsers

or their new um or their new models. So

you know sometimes fading insiders does work but you know you don't want to be betting against an insider of course. Um

and that's this is one thing you have to be really careful of. If you're

counterparty you don't understand why they be betting against you. Maybe

you're missing something. you should

always look into your counterparties essentially because sometimes they're dumb, sometimes they're not as dumb as as you might think. So,

>> I think that that's probably the best advice you can give is sometimes they're not as dumb as you think. The the most recent one we saw with this >> was the Bitcoin on Micro Strategy Purchase over a

thousand Bitcoin.

>> Jeez. Yeah. Yeah.

>> I'm curious, did you dive into that one at all or did you stay away from that?

You mentioned the Gemini market which was very big.

>> Yeah. A few of these others. I'd have

loved to dive into that. The previous

night I was is a bit of a weird one, but I was watching the UFC. It was UFC was it 323? Great card by the way, some

it 323? Great card by the way, some amazing fights. Uh, but I stayed up to

amazing fights. Uh, but I stayed up to watch that and I was betting on it as well. Um, I made about maybe 1k on it.

well. Um, I made about maybe 1k on it.

So, it was a decent night, but I slept 2 hours that night. And [laughter] then the next the next night was when this Micro Strategy stuff was all popping off and I just happened to sleep 16 hours. I

don't know how I did that. that's the

most I've ever slept and I missed sort of the whole thing. So I woke up to this talk of oh insiders insiders and I'm like okay I'm not used to micro strategy micro strategy markets but I'll do the

research that I can and and the case was there was one guy I believe it to be one guy who was on he who was on no he was on he was betting that there wouldn't be over a thousand bitcoins purchased by

micro strategy on this one day essentially um and I believe there was three or four accounts he had and he had about 1.5 million shares um and he was

betting about 700k so this guy for a bit of context. He previously he'd beat the

of context. He previously he'd beat the insiders in the previous market turning I think a 10 C bet um into a winner. He

made about maybe 200 300k I'm not too sure. Um so this guy I was thinking okay

sure. Um so this guy I was thinking okay maybe he's the smarter insider more than them.

>> I tailed him. There's no way this dude's putting up and because I found the same thing. I'm big on looking into the

thing. I'm big on looking into the accounts, seeing the anomalies, seeing where the funding source. Noticed that

the top three holders were all him.

>> And I was like, "Okay, I'm not gonna post about this because I don't want to get anyone else wrecked, but I'll throw a decent a decent position on this trading wallet to see if we can hit on this."

this." >> It got cooked. They bought 10,000. Like,

>> it did. It did.

>> So, that was crazy to see. So, for these markets, what kind of what market when you start to see the insiders, do you like is there any specific niche? Like

is it the tech niche or is there like any market your game to dive into the research?

>> Oh, anything. I mean, one thing at the moment is the Yeah. So, one thing about me is I I come from a a sports gambling background a little bit. I I was betting on football, but I was betting on the

book maker app. So, I was found I found some weird edges like you could bet on things after they've happened or >> okay, >> you could look into promotions and take advantage of them. So, you know, I started with football, but then I came

to Poly Mark and you're like, "Yo, there's there's marketers on basically [ __ ] everything. Is it fine to swear on here?" Yeah.

on here?" Yeah.

>> Uh, 100%. Yeah. Go crazy.

>> Okay. Brilliant. Cuz it's part of my vocabulary. Okay. So, yeah, there's

vocabulary. Okay. So, yeah, there's anything to bet on here. And and I find that if I think I find that it's possible to get an edge in things you don't really understand. I mean,

personally, I didn't know anything about politics before I started Poly Market.

Um, but I don't think you necessarily have to know. I think you know you see the pattern recognition or you can look at who's betting on what. Sometimes copy

trading is going to work quite well actually. So yeah, I think you can get

actually. So yeah, I think you can get edge on anything here. So but insiders they can be on certain markets is very likely they'll be on like an like a tech deadline or um or maybe an award. So at

the moment I'm looking at the time person of the year. I don't think there's anything too suspicious. There's

one guy that's betting maybe like is it almost 100k he's got on AI to win the person of the year award. Um I've looked into him but I don't think there's anything there. But it's all [snorts]

anything there. But it's all [snorts] about getting a sort of percentage chance you think of them being an insider. So everyone I tail it's like

insider. So everyone I tail it's like they might not 100% be an insider but I think maybe a 90% insider. And if I think they're 90% insider then I'm going to copy them. If they're 30%, it's like,

okay, you have to look at what the fair price of this market should be. And then

if if I think there's a 30% chance he's an insider, but the market's sitting a decent price, I'll I'll tail him as well. Let's see. But I don't think this

well. Let's see. But I don't think this guy's an insider. Um, but you you know, there's many things you you look into to get this fair value of them being an insider. You know, you look at do they

insider. You know, you look at do they have transactions with gambling sites like Rubet or Stake? Have they got other accounts linked to them? Have they bet on this market before, similar ones, and

done really well. So, there's many things you can look into because it's all on chain, you know, you you can do anything. You can find their Twitter.

anything. You can find their Twitter.

You can see if they've got connections to a company, you know.

>> I like the Twitter shout, too, cuz I think a lot of people, especially those with like multiple alt accounts, >> people don't like go that far into the wheats. They're not like they'll look

wheats. They're not like they'll look and see like, okay, this person's probably three or four accounts, but they're not going the next tiers down where it's like, all right, let's see if they have an ex. Let's see if somehow there's like a LinkedIn from this person to see if they work there.

>> Yes, that happens. That happens. Someone

has their someone had their like um is it ENS like your Ethereum? Um, yeah,

they had their like actual name as their Ethereum thing and I don't think they're an employee, but I found my LinkedIn office. I was like, okay, you know, some

office. I was like, okay, you know, some people, they're probably not aware you can see these things >> or they think they hid the paper trail or something, but it's like all of a sudden you find this and you're like,

"Oh, wait. They work for a media outlet

"Oh, wait. They work for a media outlet that only covers news event. They

probably have an embargo >> for when this actually comes out and they're just going to make money on it now."

now." >> Yeah. Yeah. I I mean the craziest one I

>> Yeah. Yeah. I I mean the craziest one I don't know if you're aware but I was probably I was the first person to find out that Lord Miles was betting against himself on the waterfast market.

>> That's how I found your page actually >> was when you made that post and it ran so hard cuz I had traded in and out of the Lord Miles bet. I was like if Poly Market's working with this guy, he's probably going to pull it off. They're

gonna change the rules around >> where it works. And then when I saw your post, I was like, "Oh shit." Like he's hammering the no on himself.

>> Yeah. Yeah. That that that was crazy. It

was it's pretty disgusting actually that he do that. But I I sort of had to keep this information to myself and you know make make the money. I had to be selfish in that scenario. But yeah, so I mean I

mean that was an example of someone not knowing how to sort of well you you can hide where your funds come from. You can

use like many different services I guess. What what's the main one? Is it

guess. What what's the main one? Is it

tornado cash? Things like this.

>> Yeah, tornado cash like Mixer. People

use the casinos where they'll deposit and withdraw from a casino stuff like that. But but this this Lord Miles guy,

that. But but this this Lord Miles guy, he um he was doing a water fast and and you could bet on if he completes the water fast or not. And he was betting that he'd fail this water fast on his

own like account and and this Poly Market account was a new is a fresh account and you could go down the trail and it link back to a wallet that he had tweeted on his Twitter before. So it's

blatantly his wallet that he's funding his Poly Market account. And then there was about seven accounts that all linked back to this one wallet. And in total, they made about $400,000 betting on

himself failing this challenge, which is a crazy amount to rub people for. But

now he's he's um you say, "Ah, I don't know. You know, he's going to get away

know. You know, he's going to get away with it sort of thing." But it's pretty mad that he can scam for that amount of money and, you know, still around. He'll

still have a a fan base. But yeah, that that was >> that's wild. I do remember though, you were the first after it had like gotten basically the odds had shifted all the way down towards a no and you had started posting about it and I was like,

"Holy shit." Like this is crazy. Like

"Holy shit." Like this is crazy. Like

>> Yeah. Well, I was quietly accumulating for a while course and then there was, you know, there's people on Yes, that were really smart people, great election betters. They were sort of looking into

betters. They were sort of looking into what's the pro probability that he'll complete his challenge if he wants to complete it. But the issue was he didn't

complete it. But the issue was he didn't want to complete it, of course. So,

>> no, he had given up. That was it. Plain

and simple. No way to spin it. Like, he

had just straight up given up on it. But

I guess then that kind of makes me curious here, too. Looking at this from another perspective. So would you say

another perspective. So would you say all of the trades you take have some level of information on the holder activity versus the market itself? Like

for the Gemini market, you're not looking at tech release and stuff like that. You're looking purely at holders.

that. You're looking purely at holders.

>> So yeah, for those sort of things that that pretty pretty much is what it is.

Um but this is a new edge for me. I mean

personally I'd never touched the blockchain before Lord Miles and that was in maybe was that in October?

>> Yeah, it wasn't that long ago, three months.

>> So yeah, I I mean I'm not I'm not from crypto. I learned this myself.

crypto. I learned this myself.

>> Yeah. So, so you know, it's only a new edge for me, but it's been going really well. I mean, as the site gets bigger,

well. I mean, as the site gets bigger, there's going to be more insiders, and you're going to have to be more careful about betting size against people that you don't know if what they know.

Essentially, it's an issue for the site.

You know, these these people that are legitimate Poly Market users, they can, you know, lose their money to insiders.

It it brings money off the site. But

also, if you're really smart about it, you can tail these people. And I think it's really important to sort of consider who your counterparty is. But

in certain scenarios, like, you know, on a sports game, you know, don't have to worry about that sort of thing. Or on an election, you know, it's unlikely you're trading against insiders. So, but it's all about what market you're betting on

and what sort of activity they're doing.

If there's a ton of fresh accounts, that's very suspicious. I'd say that that's the main thing. But most most I'd say 90% of markets will not have insiders. So, don't worry about it for

insiders. So, don't worry about it for most. It's very interesting to hear too

most. It's very interesting to hear too that you've done so well with the insider tracking >> because that is an edge like plain and simple and I think the most interesting thing is it's about how much effort you want to put in and that's the thing is

like >> you are just outworking the competition >> to get that edge because any theoretically anybody could go down that path right >> yeah well it's it's because everyone takes the market at face value which is

a very you know it kind of makes sense you most people wouldn't think to look at what I'm looking at but now it's it's becoming I think more people are doing it. So, my edge might be depleting a

it. So, my edge might be depleting a little bit. Uh, but I think I'm I am

little bit. Uh, but I think I'm I am good at it and I've got a bit more experience than the competition. So,

hopefully I can still >> I think that edge is honestly going to exist forever. Personally, like crypto,

exist forever. Personally, like crypto, there's some people I know who have been in crypto for five plus years and still cannot read a block explorer or just don't want to because it's effort.

You're tracking things. You're going

down rabbit holes. It leads to a dead end. People could feel defeated.

end. People could feel defeated.

>> It is. But when you find that piece of information that gives you the the signal that this is an insider, it's like you struck gold, right?

>> Yeah, for sure. And I mean, the one thing is um insiders recently have started buying into a trade because everyone's copy trading them. They've

now had um alternate accounts that they filled with their own account and then they'd be buying against the copy traders. So, it's a whole another level

traders. So, it's a whole another level now. These insiders are getting smart.

now. These insiders are getting smart.

Um it's like they're learning. Um, and

so, you know, you can't miss anything.

So, you'll be have you have to look into every single account. You'll have to um make sure there's not someone on the other side. That was the issue with that

other side. That was the issue with that micro strategy market. I wasn't I wasn't extremely confident. Two eyes was his

extremely confident. Two eyes was his name and the other accounts. I wasn't

very confident that they couldn't also be the guys that are on Yes. And they

were tricking a competition. It was a whole mind game for me. And I should have made more money on that. I think I made about a few hundred. Dropper, he's

the absolute goat. if you could interview him. I don't know. He is the

interview him. I don't know. He is the goat. Um, and he made a good maybe 30K

goat. Um, and he made a good maybe 30K off of that.

>> Dropper gets it, man. I'm trying to get him on as well, so I gotta bother him, too. I guess kind of here we've hit

too. I guess kind of here we've hit everything from like how you're trading this. And it's so fascinating to me

this. And it's so fascinating to me because you have some people like, "Don't trail insiders. Just get your information, figure it out." And you're the opposite. You're just like, "Yeah,

the opposite. You're just like, "Yeah, I'm just going to look at the insiders and if they really are an insider, they know more than I do. So, I'm just going to use that as the information edge." I

guess for someone net new to prediction markets, what advice would you give them? Like would you say this is a a

them? Like would you say this is a a good path to take for somebody start small maybe like I'm curious if someone was like today's day one I want to get into prediction markets I don't know not

enough about any market but do you think that there's an edge for them to do something similar >> I think there are many edges there's infinite edges on poly market I personally I came from a sort of a a

news trading side I' you know I'd buy the news sell the news buy the overreaction to the news try and look for something that people are going to this. So, a lot of the time on mentioned

this. So, a lot of the time on mentioned markets actually people get crazy returns. Like

returns. Like >> someone like you know Trump maybe says okay hell or help but you can't really tell what he said. So someone bonds 99 when they think they hear hell but he hasn't actually said hell. Scenarios

like that are really great if someone's going to make a mistake and you look for it and you anticipate it and you get the buy on the other side their trade.

That's a really smart thing to do. just

sort of foreseeing what's going to happen like you know the best soccer players like Iniesta or Bruno Fernandez they see a pass before it even that the pass comes to them um anticipating how a

market is going to go obviously it's very easy to say harder to do but there's me you just I think if you're going to start out deposit small make sure you have an edge in in one way

whether that be on sport whether it be on crypto markets whether it be on politics make sure you have an edge first and then redeposit more if you think you know what you're doing. And

obviously don't bet more than you're willing to lose.

>> I mean, that's that's a big part, right?

>> It goes without saying, but you know, and it's sort of it's kind of a gambling space. It's kind of not. But, um, we

space. It's kind of not. But, um, we should be careful about, you know, betting too much, I guess. But

>> 100%.

>> Just because people get over their over their over their wheels, right? Like

over their bearings on some of the stuff.

>> For sure. For sure. Part

>> Yeah. There is crazy money on this side, though. Do I do wonder sometimes, you

though. Do I do wonder sometimes, you know, this guy's two eyes has just lost 700 700k on this bet. Um, but he must be absolutely meant to be betting that amount on um what wasn't inside.

>> That level of confidence in something that's like >> crazy >> is nuts, dude. I was watching it. I'm

like, this guy's just keep sweeping the order book. Anytime it even dips, he's

order book. Anytime it even dips, he's there. He's just like a bid wall. So, it

there. He's just like a bid wall. So, it

was crazy to watch. I think the advice you gave is some of the best that yes, there's an edge. It is the amount of effort you want to put in. people can do this, >> but just don't don't risk more than obviously you're comfortable losing, which is easier said than done. So, I

think that's the biggest piece. I guess

too before we wrap, but like I said, I want to keep these short. I'd love to have you on again, but is there any closing thoughts you want to throw the audience? This conversation was

audience? This conversation was electric. Like, there's a lot of value

electric. Like, there's a lot of value people can pull from this.

>> Well, if you're news prediction markets, um, have a try. Bet on bet on the market that that interests you the most. Um,

interact with people, join Discords, follow Twitters, uh, speak in the poly market comment section that the comment section is jokes sometimes.

>> I love the comment section. It's my

favorite, right? If I'm bored and I just want to laugh, I'll go to something with high volume and just read the comments because it's absolute jokes.

>> It is. It is great. It's a great platform. I think there's issues with it

platform. I think there's issues with it that I think, you know, need improving.

Um, but I think the the vision of Poly Market, I absolutely love it. I love

that you can bet against other people rather than it being the bookie taking advantage of you or the casino. You make

your own odds and you can bet on absolutely [ __ ] anything. And I think that's amazing. So

that's amazing. So >> yeah, just have some fun. Have some fun >> and don't lose too much money obviously.

>> But yeah.

>> Yeah. Right. Well, that's the goal.

Don't lose too much and if anything end up in the green. You and I appreciate the time my friends. This was electric.

I think it's fascinating to hear your edge and how you've been managing this and not coming from crypto and having this experience.

>> Yeah, >> you I think you would crush on the crypto side now because you can actually understand the block explorer.

>> We'll see. Maybe after Poly Market.

We'll see, won't we?

>> Exactly. You and I appreciate it, my friend. Thank you for the time.

friend. Thank you for the time.

>> Thank you very much.

>> And if you're watching this, go follow Euan on X. Absolute must follow in my opinion. That's just that's just me, of

opinion. That's just that's just me, of course. You

course. You >> I was saying hell yeah. I was hyping you up, man. Come on. [laughter] Follow you

up, man. Come on. [laughter] Follow you and X you and E U N K E R. I appreciate

you. Hit the like, hit the subscribe, and we will catch you next time. Okay.