The Fed Is Trapped: Why Tomorrow's Dot Plot Will Destroy the Most Crowded Trade in Markets

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to the Capital Flows live stream. Hope everyone

is having a good Tuesday. Had to check really fast on what day it was exactly, but uh we have lot of interesting things

coming up as we move into the live stream today. I have a interesting

stream today. I have a interesting regime model that I'm going to share with all of you guys and then at the end of this stream I'll send you guys a PDF breakdown of that. One of the things

that I'm going to be doing is all these dashboards I'm bringing out and sharing.

What I'm going to be doing is as I share them, I'm going to add an option where I'll be able to export them to you every single day. So if you know

I'll basically be able to you know export this PDF and then I'll have kind of a PDF version of it and then you know here's what the PDF version would look

like and then you guys will have the same regime and dashboards and everything else like that that I'm sharing. So that will be one of the main

sharing. So that will be one of the main things that we'll have on the Capital Flows dashboard and everything like that. So, we'll we'll have all of

like that. So, we'll we'll have all of that out and everything. And then James should be on here.

>> I'm here.

>> Greetings. [laughter]

>> What's up, guys?

>> All right. Well,

the title I want I want to start with going over price action a little bit, but the title that I have for the stream today really sets up for where we're at

as it relates to FOMC tomorrow. And I

think that everyone is kind of aware that [clears throat] we're not going to have a cut tomorrow.

That's that's all known, priced in, all expected.

The bigger question that exists that is going to be the focus of anyone that's trading interest rates or any of the equity traders that are going to unwind hedges, anyone who's actually moving

Bitcoin or any other assets around in size is all about how many cuts are we going to get this year and how the Fed is analyzing inflation. You know, there

was actually an article and let me see if I can pull it up that came out where this this really synthesizes

how everyone is thinking about the FOMC projection and the forecast for rates.

And let me find the the idea and I I covered this partially yesterday was that this regime that we're in right now,

let me switch this. This regime that we're in right now is one where stocks are down, rates are up, dollar is up on over the last five days on a rate of

change basis for ball adjusted returns and things like that. And the the idea here is that the Fed needs to analyze you always need to think about how is

the Fed going to analyze these data points moving forward, right? And the

the idea behind it is that they need to make a decision about how they're going to view inflation because their actions itself will have an input into

inflation. And so when you look at where

inflation. And so when you look at where we're pricing cuts, the Fed would look at this and say, "Okay, we're pricing 42 bips of cuts for this cycle."

That means that between now and the end of the cutting cycle, the market is saying that the Fed is going to cut 42 bips. And then you have, okay, well,

bips. And then you have, okay, well, they're going to cut 42 bips, but when are they going to do that? How fast are they going to do that? And right now,

the Z6 contract is back to 25 bips in cuts. And you can see that right

in cuts. And you can see that right here, we're at 20 bips of cuts. And the,

you know, if we just have, you know, same idea here. here if you have Fed funds, you know, basically 22 bips. Um,

you know, there's a little bit of a basis in there, but not a big deal. We

have one cut functionally priced for this year. And the Fed needs to give us

this year. And the Fed needs to give us clarity about how many cuts should be priced total in the forward curve because what you can see here is between

2026 all these white contracts and 2027 the deepest amount of cuts is right here in the Z7 contract which just means

between now and that period of time we are going that the market is pricing right here in like Z7 you know roughly

42 to 40 uh 45 bips of cuts. And the

implication of that is how if the Fed looks at this and says, "Okay, well, I want the market to price more cuts in the entire cycle between now and terminal, which just means the end of

the cycle." Because right here you have

the cycle." Because right here you have basically the market pricing cuts all the way to the end of 2027 and then after that all hikes into 2030

because the market views growth and inflation to be a little bit higher right now. So it's only a couple cuts

right now. So it's only a couple cuts and then if you have you know growth begin to deteriorate more it would price more cuts and maybe you know more cuts back here depending on the shape of the

curve. And so the Fed is going to have

curve. And so the Fed is going to have to make a decision because if they come out super hawkish, they are going to

push real interest rates on the short end higher. Now, it's unlikely that

end higher. Now, it's unlikely that they're going to do that. The way that you can know and that all of us are thinking about how the the Fed is going

to adjust rates into this period of time is all about where we're at with real interest rates. And you can see that

interest rates. And you can see that real interest rates have come down pretty significantly during this period of time right here. You have one-year real rates right here that have have

fallen, which shows that the Fed is, you know, for the one and two-year, the Fed is looking at all these inflation changes over the last couple of weeks and saying, "No, you know, we're not

going to say anything. We're going to wait a little bit. We're going to see how some of this stuff plays out, but we're not going to say, oh, oil prices are going up. Let's start hiking."

That's not what the Fed is doing right now. The thing that you want to watch

now. The thing that you want to watch for is how exactly the Fed conducts its forward guidance and how their dot plot

begins to move. And so on the let me pull up the chart side of this. Here's a chart of

where we're at in the overall like longer term picture for inflation.

And this is going to determine, I think, if you how the Fed views the the changes just took place because overall

inflation has just been in this range right here for a while, right? and it

has, you know, not really gotten to 2% perfectly, but we made a ton of progress to there.

Now, we're going to have CPI spike a little bit. And if we look at any of the

little bit. And if we look at any of the now casts for that, here's uh CPI, inflation swaps, and

every kind of major uh inflation swap, Cleveland Fed Nowcast, Bloomberg economics, and the BE nowcast. All we're

doing with all these and saying based on oil prices, food prices, and some other real-time metrics, where should CPI be right now? Everyone expects it to kind

right now? Everyone expects it to kind of be around 3.4%. So, it's ticking up because of the oil prices and how high it goes is going to depend on how much

of a corner the Fed is pushed into. And

so you'll notice that's why you know everyone is talking about this entire scenario for the straight of hor moves which is okay well if we have crude

prices stay at these more elevated levels if that's what takes place that is going to take the inflation situation

back on this chart right here and it's going to push it a bit higher. I mean,

one of the biggest issues in in the system is not just when crude spikes and comes back down, but it's when it bids and stays at that level. Because what

happens is that food and energy prices can begin to impact people a little bit.

and someone says, "Okay, well, I have to, you know, go and spend m more money on gasoline and food now and maybe some other inputs in life, and I h I won't be

able to spend as much money on other things, especially discretionary items. So, you can have a little bit of shift take place." Now, here is the positive

take place." Now, here is the positive thing that is a little bit of a joke, but the upper K of the economy is not

impacted by oil prices. Imagine that. No

one in the upper K or in that is more well off even looks at the price of the pump, right? They just go fill up their car

right? They just go fill up their car and they just keep going. They don't

think about it because whether they spend $50 or $80, they don't think about it at all. It doesn't impact them. That

could impact all of the rest of the people on the lower income. But you have to remember right now we have a lot of consumption in the economy skewed toward that you know if you want to call it

upper K which is why there's actually in the same way that you know if equity prices drop nowadays they don't have as much of an impact on

growth as they did in the past because so many of the billionaires own the majority of the market so it has less of an impact on consumption. With that

being said, the same kind of idea applies to crude, which is why understanding the context for the regime that we're in right now is going to be

critical. And that's really where this

critical. And that's really where this dashboard that I built comes in. And

I'll if you are not a subscriber on the substack yet, I'll be sending out a report after the live stream and I will send you this entire dashboard. So, if

you are just a subscriber, free subscriber on the Substack, capital flowsresearch.com, everything's laid out below if you want to, you know, click the link. You you guys know how it

the link. You you guys know how it works. Everything's there. I'll send you

works. Everything's there. I'll send you a breakdown of this entire chart. And I

want to walk you through this chart and then we're going to connect it to markets and James and I will kind of talk through what would it look like to think through the regime that we're in.

Why would that exist in the way it is?

And how do you begin to think about FOMC tomorrow? What the Fed could or couldn't

tomorrow? What the Fed could or couldn't do? How would that impact price actions

do? How would that impact price actions given the premiums that we have in markets right now with crude, the dollar, with cross asset class V um you

know and the hedges that are likely to unwind tomorrow because you know there's obviously already a lot of hedges put on

um from Friday that people put on and I think the fact that you had equities bid on Monday and Tuesday is an indication of that, right? just that because

everyone got so conservative into the weekend rightly so I think which actually kind of funny I mean we'll talk about this but James talked about last Friday actually how you know because of

the changes that took place it actually be interesting uh kind of play to be long equities over the weekend because of the defensiveness people are taking that was probably a little

overextrapulated but we'll we'll go over that in a moment on this dashboard all we're looking at

is the period of time where we have credit spreads right here in blue and

then you have inflation swaps in orange and these are showing the market pricing of growth and inflation. So in blue when

credit spreads are rising that means there's some type of growth risk or credit risk in the economy. there's some

type of indication that's saying, "Hey, we need to pull back our exposure because earnings could shift pretty significantly."

significantly." On the other side of that, you have inflation swaps that are pricing the inflation risk in the economy. And you

will notice that there are a lot of different periods of time where these can accelerate and decelerate. And so

what you want to do is net out how they work because here is the four regimes that you can be in. regime, you know, you can say quadrant or quads or

whatever regime setup that you have where you have reflation which is credit spreads falling and inflation rising. So

growth and inflation are rising at the same time. Spreads are falling.

same time. Spreads are falling.

Goldilocks which growth is positive and inflation is actually falling. This is

usually the best time for risk assets.

uh that happened, you know, for example, during a couple different periods of time, you know, like right here when we have credit spreads fall and you know, this entire period of 2025 um that we

were talking about last year when inflation expectations were falling and credit spreads were falling at the same time right here was one of the reasons I was so aggressively long during that

time. And so that's, you know, really

time. And so that's, you know, really key to to identify. And then recession is obviously when you have spreads rising and inflation falling. That's

basically like this right here. Some

type of growth impulse where inflation expectations are falling and credit spreads are rising. Basically equities

are selling off and bonds are bidding.

So these changes in growth inflation connect to credit spreads and inflation expectations. This is, you know, when we

expectations. This is, you know, when we talk about these four regimes right here, a lot of people are only using economic data to now cast them or to do

whatever, which is helpful if you know how to connect the now casts to these, but they're not helpful if you can't connect it to the market. So, if you just have a regime dashboard on its own and you don't connect it to just the

time series and run a basic regression and sensitivity analysis to the actual impact in the market, you could say that we're in reflation or stagflation. Um,

and there's even more stuff you have to overlay to get it to actually monetize returns and trade the market based off of it. But the the changes that you see

of it. But the the changes that you see in economic data for example, if we go back to the dashboard that I talked

about and um I'll be again if anyone is is watching this, I'll be sending more outputs from this dashboard over the next week or so um as I'm you know,

finishing building a lot of stuff on it.

But you know, you have CPI model right here. You know, I have a PCE model

here. You know, I have a PCE model that's also showing kind of where we're at. PPI model. These are all monthly

at. PPI model. These are all monthly data prints, right? And so you have monthly data prints and then you also have the growth data that's also monthly

data prints. And people will say, "Oh,

data prints. And people will say, "Oh, it's lagging economic data, so it doesn't matter." I'll guarantee you that

doesn't matter." I'll guarantee you that anyone that you ever hear kind of like coming out and saying that is probably not taking risk because every single one of these numbers, they always move the market. So if you have something moving

market. So if you have something moving the market, it's probably an important data point that people are using for their decision-m. And so you'll notice

their decision-m. And so you'll notice right here on the NFP side, non-farm payrolls, that we have this has been trending down for this

period of time. Then we had a negative month- over-month print in NFP on a three-month basis. We've kind of been

three-month basis. We've kind of been chopping around and kind of flat. And

the idea here is that we have a little bit of growth risk in the labor market, but it's not funneling through to every single thing because we still have

things like industrial production pretty pretty strong right now, right? When you

have, you know, these, you know, three-month rate of change right here, it's still positive. And you have the industrial production actually kind of ticking up from these lows and the rate

of changes to the upside. All of those are indications that people are still producing.

And then you just have nominal spending as well, which again is still significantly higher than some type of recession where we're, you know, at 1%.

You know, right now we're at 5% for nominal growth, right? And, you know, in terms of real spending, you know, very, you know, we're closer, you know, we're

at 2% growth. you know, here's kind of in 2008 when we were at, you know, going negative in August of 2008. You know,

once that starts turning negative and you start having significant issues, that's when you want to be concerned.

We're not there yet, but we're closer to it, right? And so those are the type of

it, right? And so those are the type of monthly data metrics and then those are the ones that you want to connect to these types of changes. And so those if you can draw that connection as a

trader, it's actually super valuable because you can know where we're at. And

so here is a chart of the rate of change. Simply put, just the rate of

change. Simply put, just the rate of change in inflation swaps, the rate of change in credit spreads. And you can

see how these periods of time are, you know, incredibly important for where we're at in the growth cycle. And

so you can see right here in terms of the red regime, stagflation, we're in this regime right now which is causing a little bit of concern for people. Now

this is a very short-term regime and it's been driven by oil prices which is why the Fed is going to have to make a decision about how they're going to

interact with supply changes in oil prices and things like that.

Now, the other couple of charts I want to walk through, here's another really interesting chart on [snorts] the supply and demand side for oil. You can tell

right here on the supply side, we have we've had a supply contribution that and and demand contribution, but a lot of the drivers have been a

geopolitical risk premium. And you know, I like kind of seeing charts like this where you can kind of see what the different attribution and drivers are because we're still seeing, you know,

overall the demand for crude in the market accelerate. If that was

market accelerate. If that was decelerating, then I would be concerned about recession growth in the economy or things along those lines. And so where

we're at right now is that inflation expectations are high or they they've accelerated on a marginal basis over the last couple of weeks. That has also over

overlapped with credit spreads rising.

You could see that right here.

And now the question is from right here.

Are we going to move back over or is this regime going to be for a long time?

For example, if we look at we'll go back to 2020 here [snorts] and we will let's do 2023.

Oh, here we go. You can see here in 2022 and let me actually increase the look back. So, this is makes a little bit

back. So, this is makes a little bit more sense.

Notice here during this period of time in in 2022, this is really what happened where you

had inflation positive and then you had credit spreads positive in 2022. That's

you know that occurred for an entire year which is why we had the bare market in 2022. Now you can see that this took

in 2022. Now you can see that this took a long time to really come together and to persist.

That is honestly this is what people are comparing what we're about to move into right now. I don't think that's going to

right now. I don't think that's going to happen. A lot of people are saying,

happen. A lot of people are saying, "Hey, this is 2022 all over again.

Inflation expectations are going to really come in push things around." And

what's what's actually happening is people are saying as we move into FOMC tomorrow, hey, if the Fed looks through inflate or these crude prices, then

that's going to cause even more of an issue because they should actually be hiking rates. Right now, a lot of people

hiking rates. Right now, a lot of people are saying, "Oh, the the Fed should be hiking rates because we have higher crude prices or something like that."

Now, here's the problem with that. Do

you realize that if you were going to say, "Oh, well, we're moving into 2022 right now and we're going to have an inflationary bare market and unless the

Fed hikes, we're going to have a a massive problem." Just think about what

massive problem." Just think about what the issue with that is. The first one is the fact that for CPI,

we have a pretty significant spread and discontinuity between 2022. I'm

trying to pull up this chart right here where this Okay, you can see here during 2022 when

we were moving up into 2021 and 2022, we were already at in in 2021 a 6% headline number for inflation.

before we even had the Fed starting to hike. You see that the difference of

hike. You see that the difference of where we're at? And then in core in 2021, again, all before the Fed started hiking, we were at 4% for core CPI.

We're now at 2 and a.5%.

So this idea that oh well, you know, this this move tomorrow as we move into the Fed meeting means that the Fed needs to start hiking because inflation is rising and we have this massive issue on

the supply side and this is going to be just like 2022. Do you realize how that's just overlooking the entire point about where we're at in the level of inflation, especially for core CPI?

Because headline CPI, we all know that's going to rise a little bit. It's

probably going to go up. If you look at the CPI swaps for the path forward right here, the market is pricing us to move

up to 3.5 from 2 point from 2.4. So the

market is saying, hey, CPI is going to increase 100 bips, which is it's substantial. It's why, you know, if you

substantial. It's why, you know, if you have 100 bips put into CPI overnight, right, or really fast when you have like an oil shock, then it's very possible to

have a little bit of an adjustment in the positioning of the market. But do

you see why when we look at the level of CPI back over here in 2021 before the Fed even started hiking, they were

massively offsides in where they were.

and that and I I'll even show you back in 2021.

If we look at the one-year real interest rates, this entire period of 2021, one-year real interest rates were actually

negative the entire time. Let's see if we can pull up.

See, >> while you do that, can I ask you a question?

>> Yeah, please. This is a little glitchy right now.

>> Yeah. Um

I feel like there's this large disconnect between 95% of people that pay attention to anything macro and real interest rates,

right? Like I [clears throat] feel like

right? Like I [clears throat] feel like you you give me the vibe that real interest rates are really the heavy hitter, the thing that really makes the most impact. Yet,

>> nobody really talks about real interest rates. It's all about just like the Fed

rates. It's all about just like the Fed funds rate and like prices and or cuts and [ __ ] pauses and whatever. How do

you think we should best think about real interest rates um as we like map through these regimes and stuff like people who aren't paying attention enough to them like how do you

think we should first approach them?

I think the real interest rates are one of the largest drivers of macro liquidity in in the system. They're one of the largest

the system. They're one of the largest drivers of FX flows, too. Um, I'll

actually be having some FX models that I put out soon. Um, if you're really involved in the FX market, it'll probably be one of the most important tools that you can have. I'll hopefully

have them out sometime this week.

And the the way that I think about interest, real interest rates is and you know I I really I think to to to show

this real interest rates are all about the the real purchasing power of money of

nominal rates and money relative to inflation expectations. And I I really

inflation expectations. And I I really wanna I'm gonna build this chart in Bloomberg really fast just because I do think I mean I'm I'm honestly surprised that more people don't talk about real

interest rates. Uh it because every

interest rates. Uh it because every single day when I wake up I look at well I actually look at this dashboard right

here now. Um I had all of this in

here now. Um I had all of this in Bloomberg previously but now I just have it all in here because this is actually so much better. But I look at where

nominal and real interest rates and inflation expectations are across every single metric. So for example, I look at

single metric. So for example, I look at here's here's where we are in every single curve. Here's nominal curves,

single curve. Here's nominal curves, inflation swap curves, and real rate curves. And I'm looking at what is the

curves. And I'm looking at what is the shape of the curve across everything and what's happening and why is it happening. And I basically have like,

happening. And I basically have like, you know, AI agents now synthesizing everything and saying, "Oh, here's what the transitions are likely to be. Why is

it taking place? How to think about that from multiple time horizons?" Right?

Things like that. But the idea behind real interest rates, I'm pulling up this chart right here on Bloomberg.

There we go.

The idea behind real interest rates is all about saying what is the price of money relative to the quantity of money

in the system. So for example, we have here oops in white nominal interest rates. So, if

you are going to go get a mortgage or some type of other thing that is connected to debt in the system or if you're the the Fed or anyone that's

trading interest rates, you really care about nominal interest rates because that is going to what going to determine the amount of money you have to pay to

use someone else's debt. That's nominal

interest rates right here. The thing

that people look at less is well why is a nominal interest rate 3.6%.

Right? And I'm actually the the funny thing is if this entire kind of revolution if you want to call it that that's taken place over the last couple of years where people are kind of

questioning money and saying oh well the denominator of money is changing or these things are changing or uh you know this is the reason for all of our

problems in the system. It's the

denominator of money.

Interest rates are the price that you pay to use someone else's money and inflation is about well how much money is in the system because when you have

you know this is an inflation swap that's pricing where are we going to be at in CPI in two years. So the market is saying oh the and these are just free markets. These are not like manipulated

markets. These are not like manipulated markets that people are coming up with or something like that. These are all free markets and the market is saying that over the next

couple of years we're going to have a 2% roughly inflation rate. Two to three well you know 2.7 3% when we're at the highs right here you know is 5%. And

that's on a broad basis kind of for everything in the underlying economy.

And what I would also say is that this is all about the lynch pin for everything. So if you you know that

everything. So if you you know that these are short end rates. So these are kind of the asymmetrical lynch pin on which the kind of entire door of the

economy turn. And so if these change by

economy turn. And so if these change by 20 bips 50 bips that reverberates across the entire economy because it controls

the supply of money for the entire economy. And so the the Fed is always

economy. And so the the Fed is always looking at this spread right here between inflation expectations and nominal interest rates.

So for example, during this period of time right here in 2021 when you had inflation expectations rising, you had more money in the underlying economy.

That's all that that is. It's like very simple. It's just money in the

simple. It's just money in the underlying economy rising relative to the amount of goods and services that exist. When you have inflation

exist. When you have inflation expectations rising like this, if you don't take up the price of money too, what do all of us do? We all say, "Hey,

um, right now the, uh, ability to get a mortgage rate at 2 and a.5% as home prices are going up is

and a.5% as home prices are going up is really cheap. We should all go buy

really cheap. We should all go buy houses and, you know, be able to lock in a low interest rate." And that was this entire period of time because real

interest rates were negative. And the

fact that, you know, you have a mortgage rate locked in at a low interest rate and now your income has probably jumped up since then or you're making more money hopefully

since that period of time is is an indication about how real interest rates impact things.

And so when the Fed has nominal interest rates below inflation expectations right here, it is allowing more money to push

into the system because it's taking the price of money nominal interest rates and it's bringing it below the amount of money in the system which are inflation swaps. I I'm talking a little broadly

swaps. I I'm talking a little broadly about this because there's some qualifications and there's like some minor tracking errors and some other little kind of like things for how is inflation distributed in the system and

all this other stuff. But broadly

speaking, those statements are correct.

And so in this period of time when you have inflation, you know, accelerated so much and then you had the Fed say, "Okay, we need to pull inflation down."

What did they do? They took nominal interest rates and they pushed them up above inflation expectations and then as they pushed them above

inflation expectations now when you have to borrow money above the rate of inflation then now you have to actually pay more money in real terms. So your

income is rising less every year relative to the debt service cost that you're paying to take that out. And the

reason why it's hard to understand and it's not as intuitive is because we all think in nominal terms. I'm paying $5,000 for a mortgage. I'm paying

$10,000 for a mortgage. I'm paying $500 for a car payment. I'm paying this amount for this. The S&P 500 is at this number. None of us think about things in

number. None of us think about things in terms of real purchasing power really in a in our nominal world. Every interest

rate trader out there though, the only thing that well the main thing that they care about is the relationship between nominal changes and real changes.

Because if you understand the relationship between those then he will begin or I'm sorry you will begin to understand why the curve is doing what it's doing and how that impacts macro

liquidity. So now we're in a period of

liquidity. So now we're in a period of time where you know inflation you know these we have nominal interest rates above inflation expectations but now

because growth is still positive over the last couple you know period of time then and this is now kind of what's you making it even harder to understand

is that if we you know zoom into these shorter term changes all of these you can say okay well yeah real interest rates are positive But these moves right

here are on the margin right when this spread right here narrows or widens right here relative to amount of the growth in the economy that is what

determines if equities are rise or it's one of the inputs into whether equities are rising and falling. So, for example, this entire period of time right here when real interest rates were falling

after the tariff draw down and then you had us kind of like consolidate a little bit and then you were kind of moving around a little bit. Now we're kind of moving back down.

This is injecting on a real purchasing power basis liquidity into the system on a real purchasing power basis which is actually happening right now. But the

thing is because the uh the questions around the Fed and the positioning risk that exists right now in not only S&P but other things that's

why we actually still have equities down and why they're compressing likely before we have some type of rally. But

you know when I see interest rates, real interest rates moving over like this and you know again this is on the short end you also have to kind of look at it on the long end as well. But when that's

taking place, then that helps me understand. Okay. When I look at the S&P

understand. Okay. When I look at the S&P here, and I'm trying to pull up the ball chart of the S&P right here, so that and we talked about this,

we talked about this Friday and yesterday about, hey, we're probably uh going to have the S&P bid a little bit because of the amount of hedges that

are in the system right now between uh you know, just from positioning. You

know, here is S&P 500 and you have your put skew right here in red, which is people bidding up puts. You have implied vault rising on an outright basis and

then, you know, puts getting a higher premium in the calls. Now, you know, we kind of made that bottom when we blew out and now we've been moving up as these hedges unwind and now as we're

moving into FOMC, we're going to see if those hedges can unwind even more. I

think they will especially by Thursday and Friday as as long as crude doesn't make a new high here which is you know pretty pretty consequential if crude

doesn't make a new high here and we move through FOMC and also you have where is it eurousd continue to bid up which I think

is going to happen I think euro USD has probably made a bottom here and we're likely to just start bidding right here as the dollar begins to to weaken, which

if you were on the website and you went to the crowded trade thing and you went through the recent report that I wrote right

here talking about, oh, the chart crystallizes how this positioning is cross-c collateralized, which means

[snorts] that where is this right here?

that this is likely to produce equity buying and dollar selling.

And that was the view that I had as you kind of have this regime fade because of how much positioning you have in it. And

that connects to real interest rates in my view. So you have if real interest

my view. So you have if real interest rates begin to roll over a bit more as that positioning unwinds through FOMC, you could see kind of this massive move

down in the dollar right here and begin to break to new lows again, which my view is that, you know, the dollar is likely the administration and everyone and where we're at with rates, the

dollar is likely to move lower in my in my view, which will actually probably bring merit to gold and silver right here, you I think that if we get some geopolitical

and I I think I already said this on the stream yesterday. If there's some news

stream yesterday. If there's some news that says, "Hey, the Iran situation is over or whatever deescalating and these wick down." I would just be buying a ton

wick down." I would just be buying a ton right here for a break to all-time highs with, you know, stops probably down here. Especially if there's like this

here. Especially if there's like this fast wick where it's like, "Oh, geopolitical risk flush." But then everyone goes, "Oh, wait, but the dollar's going down now. Now, we need to bid this and we're gonna make a new

all-time high. Especially, especially,

all-time high. Especially, especially, here's the wild thing on gold and silver right now. And let me pull up this

right now. And let me pull up this chart. All of the ball in gold and

chart. All of the ball in gold and silver has come down just so much.

>> Yep.

So that was probably a long explanation for everything, but no, >> I mean, I just like put all that together and I'm just like the real interest rates starting to roll over to

the downside and then this idea of like the the put call skew and like it is everything feels like you got the opex, you got FOMC,

uh you got end of quarter, like all these things seem defensively positioned to the point where it's just like more and more and more Tinder for a violent

upward move that not many people would expect. And like you add in the like I

expect. And like you add in the like I know it's a a probability curve of like escalation or deescalation, >> but like you have to kind of lean on the side of like deescalation at this point.

>> Totally.

>> Given all we've been through. And I'm

like, man, it's really hard to bet. Like

it's at this point it's just hard for me to find a short at that point. And to to to add on to that a little bit, it's like oh and the the the VS, but um I was

thinking like all right, well if that's the case and you were like you're you're some viewer out there and you're like how could I express that? Like we've

talked a lot about how you can go down your all the way down to the knife's edge of risk, but like you got to incorporate your time horizon too.

somebody might feel more comfortable like, hey, I want to be, let's just say they were bullish off this, right? And I

want to be allocating here. If it's for something that's longer term, they might not want to go all the way out to a a per type of thesis. They might want to

just like buy this S&P. Um, but if their time horizon goes down to like, hey, I just want to do a post FOMC scalp for the rest of the week. Then maybe it's like you go all the way out that curve

to the most violently repricable thing.

Does that make sense?

>> Totally.

Yeah. I think that the the entire setup right now is that there got there was a lot of premium priced and if we move into an inflationary bare market,

it's very likely after we unwind the positioning for it. So it's people are like, "Oh, we're gonna have an inflationary bare market." Maybe, but first this goes back to like the path first we need to wash out the

positioning that believes that's going to take place in the next week.

>> Right.

>> Right. So e this goes back to I just feel like the entire path the path and destination thing and why you need to align yourself with both which is why

quoteunquote investors are all about well where are we going? How do I take a big bet on the ultimate destination?

And why if you're a trader and you can understand the path, if we get overly aggressive or under appreciate and discount the path, then you can have a

pretty significant opportunity to extract additional returns along that way. Especially when you have when you stack these metrics of like I

mean this this setup right here is wild to me that we have you know you had skew blow out right here in red for gold at the highs. So call was blowing out and

the highs. So call was blowing out and then you kind of had the same thing right here when we made this other move up but then now V has just been

collapsing in gold. And when that happens, that just tells me that all of the people that bought a bunch of calls, you know, especially if we're just in

this range right here and we're not actually like collapsing back down to to 4,000. The fact that we're just chopping

4,000. The fact that we're just chopping in this small range and V was so elevated, it just tells me that every single person who bought calls or puts because things aren't happening as fast

as they wanted them to, they now have to sell all of those or those they're going to lose a ton of money. So they're

saying, "Oh, you know, now I bought, you know, the guy who bought calls up here is saying, I need to get rid of those because it's not going to happen this month, which it's probably not. It's I

mean, you know, it would take two months probably." And he says, "Okay, I need to

probably." And he says, "Okay, I need to like take those off and wait to re-enter." And then the guy who bought

re-enter." And then the guy who bought puts at 4,000 or 4,500, you know, we've moved down a little bit, but not a ton.

And now he's saying, "Okay, we're probably not going to move down to 4500 in the next month.

let me just take it off and wait. And

that's literally hedging pressure in like that's all hedging pressure is. Everyone

likes to over complicate it. That's all

it is.

>> Yeah, that's actually pretty fascinating. It's like pinning it

fascinating. It's like pinning it between the bulls and the bears, right?

And just annihilating all the uh the options like ability to make money. Um

>> Oh, yeah.

>> Oh, that's that's hilarious. And then

the fact that you said that like let's say now you're a bear. Uh

if you have like this scenario play out where you're right like maybe the destination is a inflationary bare market or whatever. If you do think that

along that path there's this unwinding of positioning first. Ironically, it

might be best for a bear to to take the most aggressive long here that you possibly can because if you do believe the destination is lower, you need to

you need to take advantage of the unwind and positioning with the most aggressive thing, >> which would be probably the hardest thing for a bear to do, which is hilarious.

>> Totally.

Yeah. I I think this is this is one of the reasons why I never fear missing out on a trade and I feel like I've gotten

better at this over the years where if I have a really good idea about how to map the path of something, right?

like in, you know, the these moves in either direction and just saying like, okay, can I have some type of insight, not just to say, okay, Bitcoin is probably going to be at a, you know, a million dollars in whatever period of

time and say, okay, you know, maybe we'll be up here by 2035.

No, I'm just kidding. We'll move

forward. We'll move closer. We'll move

closer.

>> Don't even get me into that.

>> We We'll give you 2030. We You know, we'll say 2030 is a million dollars. Is

that or do you want it closer, James?

>> Whenever Kamla is president, that's when we'll get it.

>> That's honestly probably true. Um,

[laughter] but I've I've never worried about it just because my view has always been if I can know the path and where the

extremes in the path are, then all I need to do is find the extremes and get on sides there and then try to

constantly get on sides at some type of on [laughter] the path that exists toward this ultimate meltup or destination. or whatever it might be. As

destination. or whatever it might be. As

long as I can use the path to get on sides there, then I can like manage my risk a lot better.

And I think that's that's something that I think if you get better at as a long-term trader, you will save so much money and you will limit so many more

drawdowns if you can align yourself with the path uh on the destination to a meltup or meltdown or whatever it might be.

>> Yeah. And to to couple with that uh time in the seat allows you to realize one thing I've learned especially after this past year with with the AI everything is

that you will have those opportunities along the path like literally no technology has not gone through a trough of like disillusionment right like

getting back to that gardener hype cycle >> it's like we've seen so many different things over the past five years, eight years. I've, you know, I've been trading

years. I've, you know, I've been trading since 2013. Literally, everything has ne

since 2013. Literally, everything has ne there's never been one asset that runs away so fast that you don't get an opportunity for a really good buy multiple times. And Bitcoin's a perfect

multiple times. And Bitcoin's a perfect example of that.

>> So many times where it's like you just feel like you're never going to get the chance again. And it's proven over and

chance again. And it's proven over and over. Everything. I mean, just every

over. Everything. I mean, just every single thing. And if you that helps you

single thing. And if you that helps you in the future when you get a little bit of FOMO.

>> Well, this is this is a perfect example honestly for Hyperlid right here because I know a lot of people are saying like oh well and I talked about Hyperlid and PUR and I know we've both been long for

a while and you know bullish. But the

entire the entire idea behind this and this is like this goes back to us having realistic expectations about the future, right? Like we both know that like

right? Like we both know that like listen, you're probably not going to execute perfectly on the trade. You're

probably going to screw it up somehow and don't think you're going to execute perfectly so that you can kind of actually hedge your own ignorance a little bit. And then on top of that,

little bit. And then on top of that, like the fact that we have so many of these like like the fact that you in your mind

think all of us think that that we're just going to move like straight. We we

think that this is going to happen.

We're afraid of this, right? And we just that happens when in reality it's probably going to be like, "Oh, wait.

We're just here for a while."

>> Are you sharing a screen? We can't see it if so. Wow, you're right.

Sorry, I was drawing this entire time, but I I think the the the entire >> Is that a Stegosaurus, bro? I don't know what kind of uh stuff you're doing, but that looked like a Stegosaurus.

>> Capital Flows, the dinosaur guy.

>> Let's draw a dinosaur. I think No, but I think all of us think that like we're just going to go like straight up and we're afraid of missing out on it, right? So, we're like, I need to bid

right? So, we're like, I need to bid right here and if I don't, I'm screwed.

Especially when it takes place like after one of these moves. Whereas, like

we talked about this earlier off stream is my entire goal is to say like, okay, like I know that like this is probably

potentially at best what a trend could look like to the upside, which is like right here, you're going to get the most amount of fear and trolls like every

single time. right here, you're going to

single time. right here, you're going to get the most amount of euphoria no matter what. And the the most important

matter what. And the the most important thing that you can do is not think that you're going to just like it would be amazing if this trend worked, but you

should prepare for this trend, right?

And [snorts] then like what I do is I go through and I say okay like let's let's be realistic about this and say what

caused this to move up and what caused this to move down and I know okay well this was it hip three this was uh markets not trending and a lot less

volume going through but open interest still remained high and then you still had fees going through but then you kind of overextrapulated this move a a little bit to flush and there's probably a

little bit positioning that got blown out there and then you had kind of the beginning of more HIP 3 volume going through more deviation from Bitcoin and

then you had okay now S&P 500 like when this is bidding and S&P is going down that just tells me that this is actually providing value more value than the S&P

in in a in a relative comparative sense and then this entire move. The fact that it's rising on geopolitical risk premium

is telling me, okay, crude volume, silver, gold, equities, maybe some other things are all going through here right

now. And so if the geopolitical I mean

now. And so if the geopolitical I mean there's the the biggest test that I think about right now is once crude

sells off if hyperlid can maintain its bid above these levels then it's telling me that it's not just dependent on geopolitical risk spiking because it's

very possible. Let's just say

very possible. Let's just say theoretical scenario geopolitical risk gets nuked crude goes down 20%. And then

Hyperlquid begins to trade down because it's like, oh well, there's not as much V in the market. None of these crazy moves are happening. We could begin to sell it down a little bit in in

hyperlquid, right? If that took place, I

hyperlquid, right? If that took place, I would begin to say, okay, that's possible, but I would expect us to stay above these levels right here, right?

The way that we could keep on bidding is if as crude volume decreases in hyperlquid

other assets begin to take the the market share or the share that crude was originally having in the entire

setup which is why I'm watching the hip 3 volume right now so carefully because you know in this tab if you're watching you can watch all the hip 3 and you can

watch a byproduct and say, "Okay, how much is going through crude, Brent oil, silver, because if this goes down, right, and the the funding rate changes

and all this other stuff, right? Then

that I want to watch how those other factors begin to play into it, right?

And if they can kind of take the reigns and take the baton from crude volume, >> if that makes sense, and that that will

begin to to shape how I think about the trend right here. And I actually wanted to pull up I didn't pull this up earlier. I wanted to share this with

earlier. I wanted to share this with everyone.

>> Keep going. I'm going to run to the bathroom.

>> All right. This is

great article that was just recently published on Hyperlid that Hyperlid is taking the CME, not Binance. Now, I

think there's an element of salt that you need to take with this.

You know, a little bit of salt you need to take with this, a pinch of salt if that's the phrase. But I do think there's an element of truth to it.

Hyperlid when you think about the entire idea that I laid out on my substack about it's taking the establishment

where everyone thought oh we just need to get crypto to trad markets so that people can pump our bags instead of how do we create so much value that trads

come to crypto and that's what hyperlquid is doing. When you do that, then the entire question is how should we compare hyperlquid to traditional markets to things like the CME? And this

article did a great job of breaking it down. You can go through this if you

down. You can go through this if you just, you know, search this on Twitter.

Published March 13th. The CME generated 6.5 billion in revenue in 2025 with 28 million contracts traded daily, market capitalization of 114 billion.

Hyperlquid earned 900 960 million in revenue in 2025 on three trillion in trading volume with 125 billion I'm

sorry excuse me 12 billion market cap.

Hyperlid now generates about 15% of CME's revenue but is valued at just 10% of the market cap. The key opportunity is the extent to which traditional

financial volume can move to decentralized platforms like Hyperlquid.

So from sex uh or excuse me, DEX to global derivatives exchange, Hyperliquid, HIP 3 launched in October

2025. It goes over kind of these ideas

2025. It goes over kind of these ideas about hip three per. One of the things

that I was talking with uh James about before uh before stream was about

how exactly per change the game and HIP 3 in itself when you have it beginning to take more and more market share, right? And then you have the Iran war

right? And then you have the Iran war functioning as a proof of concept.

Everyone on Hyperlid and everywhere else is beginning to realize the Iran war is kind of like a test case for how much crazy stuff can happen. And

Hyperlid provides value. On February 28, the US and Israeli Israel attack or struck Iran when traditional markets were closed. Within hours, oil linked

were closed. Within hours, oil linked per on hyperlquid surged 5%. The traders

priced in the shock in real time. By the

following weekend, after WTI posted its largest weekly gain since 1983, oil pers on Hyperlid recorded over 1.2 billion in 24-hour volume and 40 million

in liquidations.

Cumulative crude per volume went from 200 million to 6 billion in two weeks.

Bitcoin flattened near this uh the macro trade was happening on hyperlquid not on spot crypto which just shows six bill

from 200 million over a 6x right that's almost a 12x from that from 200 million to six

billion in two weeks is massive here's trading oil you know uh xyz's per volume I mean this is just so large

in how much all this has changed. I

mean, the fact that they got crude pers on there right before the attack is is huge.

On CME's, total daily volume across all assets is 3.8 8 trillion excluding interest rate products which are structurally complex and unlikely to migrate soon which actually one of the

things that uh we've James and I have talked about and we've talked about even with some of these guys at YXZ is that if you add interest rate derivatives

that will be likely the largest edge that Hyperlid has. uh you know these are uh hyperlquid already dominates in the in the CME volume and equity indices

energy metal agriculture FX is approximately 1.2 two trillion a day.

You have the CME benchmarks and they compare it and then you know goes through scenario analysis and I think these were you know helpful as a baseline.

The idea is you know I I agree with this and I think that Hyperlid uh you know HIP 3 needs an equity index and commodity per to hold volume after the

novelty fades and the zerodte crowd needs a reason to move from options to per beyond lower fees alone. So if you

have all this HIP 4 stuff launched on per so that you have zero DTE options on hyperlquid through HIP 4 and that goes on top of

HIP 3 and all the fees for that are lower than the CME or anything like that. That could be just an absolute

that. That could be just an absolute game changer because everyone says okay now I want to put all my money on Hyperlquid to trade instead of in my brokerage account. So that could be that

brokerage account. So that could be that could be massive. So I think that was a very interesting article. And then this other article, the great perpication

uh by you know Ryan Watkins cool account and he goes over how exactly to think about this entire progress of perpetuals

and you know this you know great perpetualization. And I think that one

perpetualization. And I think that one of the things that is misunderstood still about per

is one of the things is you know here's here's per volume uh or dex between dex and you know centralized exchanges

and then perpetual hip 3 volume has exploded here.

One of the things that I think about for perpetuals is the idea that you know if you think about futures right now all of

us who trade futures the when we trade them at the end of the day we have to sell them so that the contract doesn't expire right and we

have to incur a taxable liability to be able to have that per on the other hand if you just hold that you can actually hold that and just pay the funding rate

and almost like using margin on a stock except you actually have future size volume and now you can actually reduce your taxable liability in many ways. Uh

especially if you get a trade that's on size and you say oh let me just hold this for a year to have a long-term cap gain instead of a short-term one. I

think that's kind of an interesting thing. I'd be curious, you know, James,

thing. I'd be curious, you know, James, you have any thoughts on that? Uh but I think that's actually a thing that needs to be taken into account for the return kind of analysis for fees and things

like that.

>> Yeah, I'm not sure. I haven't I haven't thought deeply enough about the like marginal benefits like that. I

I do just know that nobody really thinks well first of all there's a big segment of not only crypto but just like I mean most normal people that have never actually executed a perp trade right I

mean in the grand scheme of things are pretty new >> right >> so like my personal experience with making a perp trade has been like holy [ __ ] like

[snorts] this is so much simpler and makes intuitive sense and like it just flows goes well. Whereas like setting up a futures account, you got to get approved. You got to pay round costs

approved. You got to pay round costs that could be extremely high and counterintuitive to like what you're actually trading. And like the fact that

actually trading. And like the fact that any if once all these get brought onto these dexes and sex I don't know if they'll be brought on centralized ones

as well but like I assume at some point if anything pops off like if this this is just goes to show you like >> it could get brought on chain or onto these things and just instantly

liquidity can move there like silver went from not existing on hyperlquid to trading like 2% of all f or 2% of all

like notional or whatever in what like a week two weeks I don't even know what it was it was crazy but like that could happen in the tellier that could happen

the yen that could happen in soybeans that could happen in any random stock that goes into an absolute bubble like it could be brought on purpi and traded

like crazy. So,

like crazy. So, >> I mean, just imagine if you had another run of like

like a 2021 style broad market rise and then you had the top 200 stocks, 100 different the all the well all the

cryptos, all the commodities, all the interest rates, all the currencies, all available to trade and you went through one of those moments. Imagine the

numbers.

>> Yep.

>> You know what I mean? Oh, and if it was allowed in America, [laughter] you know, like just imagine the numbers. It would

be unbelievable.

>> Well, this is and this is actually probably be a great point to kind of pull things together and end. But this

is the tweet that I shared the other day. Let me find it.

day. Let me find it.

Um, here we go.

I think okay so here this is the tweet that I shared yesterday and I shared several thoughts and I started with we're moving in lock

step with the view I laid out pin tweet I'm long per everyone knows that the idea that tradfi assets migrating to hyperlquid are creating an uncorrelated source of returns that is causing Hyperlquid to diverge from Bitcoin. This

is happening. I laid that out before it actually happened, right? We talked we we did multiple streams and videos on that idea. This is happening perfectly

that idea. This is happening perfectly as HIPP 3 volume becomes a larger percentage of open interest in volume, but this isn't all that's happening. It

would be one thing if hype diverged from Bitcoin, but it also rallied while global equity markets sold off on geopolitical risk.

We are literally seeing hyperlquid benefit from global volatility. It is in many ways exhibiting anti-fragility. The

second thing is we are still waiting a hyperlid to be integrated into the US regulatory framework. Once this happens

regulatory framework. Once this happens even more flows will come on and arbitrage a lot of the returns so that funding rates collapse. So once it gets added to the US, it's going to have a

lot of institutional volume that comes on that is not able to come on right now. And that's going to cause funding

now. And that's going to cause funding rates to collapse because everyone's going to say, "Oh, I can provide leverage and make a yield. Once funding

rates for leverage on per collapse, even more traders will be get be incentivized to enter the platform and get institutional level leverage as a normal person. Soon enough, you'll have the

person. Soon enough, you'll have the same Israel level leverage as Chimoth.

Third, we have already seen many firms file for the hype ETFs, but we're still waiting on approval in this interim period of time that people are going to be aggressively chasing exposure in hype

in the hype token, but won't be able to obtain it until the ETF launches. In

this window of time, PER is likely to rally the most because it's the the way for larger players to get exposure since they hold the most tokens of any DAT for traders to get size on. If options are

listed on PER, then this would likely create a massive gamma squeeze. Here's

the wild thing. If they get volume to start trading on hyperlquid so that pers and options are trading on hyperlquid and then at the same time you have

options get listed on per like stacking option flow so that it's like this massive thing. Uh that would be again another kind of like there's just so many things that could stack up

and be insane, right? This is why per stock is my largest position right now.

I did an interview with the CEO that's all linked below guys. Finally, what

seems to elude most people is how agentic trading for both systematic and discretionary traders is going to dominate and be the primary place is going to be on hyperlquid. So, you know,

I've talked with a lot of people about agentic trading and the agentic models they're building. And if you think about

they're building. And if you think about the vaults that could get created where everyone says, "Hey, I have this new thing. Hey, do you want to invest in my

thing. Hey, do you want to invest in my Poly Market account where I'm betting on all of this stuff?" And you say, "Oh, wow. This guy has an AI agent that maps

wow. This guy has an AI agent that maps every single betting market except all the betting markets kind of migrate to Hyperlquid instead of Poly Market and

Khi because um those guys are sharks.

Like that would be like huge because then you could have whatever AI agents running everything and finding all the different like bets and opportunities and you can create an entire vault

around it. I suspect that the adoption

around it. I suspect that the adoption will overlap at some time with greater uh memory options that are released with AI, which I still think is like they just released a little bit more I think over the last two weeks. When you have

more memory, you're able to have more informed iteration. Much of this with a

informed iteration. Much of this with a massive amount of compute to fuel it and you have a scenario for the one of the largest productivity booms and liquidity injections in history. This doesn't

account for the possibility, it's very possible actually, of tokenization laws to pass where you can legally tokenize real world assets on chain. Right now

that's illegal in the United States. The

upside is always inconceivable in foresight but obvious in retrospect. My

entire goal, and James and I have talked about this, is that I'm trying to focus more on agentic trading, agentic macro,

why it matters, and how to constantly pull together every single thing that I've done so that my focus is on that because I think that's the greatest bet that you can take. And you don't want to

just take it by saying, "Okay, let me be long hyperlquid." Figure out how can I

long hyperlquid." Figure out how can I be long hyperlquid? and also being able to figure out this AI stuff and also figure out how those can merge together.

And and and stacking all of these edges and differentiations on top of each other so that you can kind of have this ability that takes multiple forms of

leverage and gets them in a flywheel effect so that you can really have a gamecher output for all the bets that you're taking. So that's my view. That's

you're taking. So that's my view. That's

why I've shifted a lot of the substack to say I'm really focusing on all of this agentic macro agentic analysis and I'm going to be sharing a lot more of that. I'm going to be sharing the FX

that. I'm going to be sharing the FX models and some other stuff this week and then um I shared this at the beginning if you guys uh didn't get it

or I'll I'll be sharing this. I shared

this um where I talked about this entire dashboard and I'll put the last 10 years and rate of change. Here's a dashboard that kind of maps where we're at on a

rate of change basis. Let me

if you want to understand where we're at in the macro regime and say, okay, how do oil prices, how do inflation swaps and things like that impact where we're at? And it maps all these regimes. I'll

at? And it maps all these regimes. I'll

be sending this uh PDF out in the report that I sent out today. So, if you want that, I'll send it out to everyone.

It'll all be free. Go to capital flows research.com. Um you guys know where all

research.com. Um you guys know where all the links are. It's everything's

everywhere. Um I'll be sending out more stuff like that and then also integrating a lot more of these agentic things and then I'll be sharing a lot of cloud code stuff as well that pulls

together all these moving parts. So,

um, if you guys are here and you want to continue to be a part of all this, become a subscriber on the Substack, just share the work. I mean, you know,

shoot me a message if you guys want. Uh,

any of the stuff that you guys share on Twitter, super helpful so that I can continue to put out everything. Um, if

you know, I really appreciate everyone that always retweets everything. Like, I

never goes unnoticed. Um, if you ever have something that you're working on that you're like, "This is something that's super sick. I'm trying to learn more and grow the following that I have

or you know map these things like I just shared actually for everyone that's here on the substack one of the subscribers

who I've you know I talk with uh Alfie he built out a lot of trading view models that are directly linked like there are here are all the models that

he built out all of these models right here he built with AI high and they're all trading view models. You can

download all of these right now. And he

just was like, "Hey, you've taught me, you know, you taught me a lot. You

learned a lot from the things." And he pulled together all these models. And he

just said, "Hey, we can just send these to all the subscribers." Because he just wants to help everyone, which is like huge, right? Like that's just being able

huge, right? Like that's just being able to give to people like that and share things is just massive.

So yeah, and you can go here. You can go follow all of his work right here on on the Capital Flows research website. All

the educational primers are right here.

Like just think about where we're going to be in six months on this page. Like

there'll probably be a lot of agentic models. There'll probably be a lot of

models. There'll probably be a lot of like Trading View models. There'll

probably be dashboards. If you have anything that you're like, "Hey, I want to pitch this. I want to share this." I

mean, you can go to liquidation nation with Jared. all the work that he's

with Jared. all the work that he's doing, like it's sick. I mean, this entire dashboard that he built is amazing. Like, you should go subscribe

amazing. Like, you should go subscribe to that. It's all free. So, the amount

to that. It's all free. So, the amount of stuff that's going to be on here is just going to increase. And if you're someone who's saying, "Hey, I want to

just be involved and learn and I want to kind of drink from the fire hose," then you can shoot me a DM and be like, "Hey, I'm trying to think about this or work on this. What do you think I should do?

on this. What do you think I should do?

or if I built this, could you share it with people and I'll let you know. I'll

be like, "Oh, you know what? That's not

that great. You should improve it in this way. Come back in a week after

this way. Come back in a week after you've built it and then we'll talk about it, right?" And just grow and improve with all these different things.

And then I'm always happy to share anything. If you build something that's

anything. If you build something that's like exceptional and you want me to share with everyone, uh, I'll always, you know, if I think it's actually good, I'll always share it. So, that's where I

believe we are in the cycle. That's

where we're at with capital flows.

Things are only going to get better up and to the right. So, James,

any final thoughts, final words?

>> No, I thought this was uh super interesting. I think Alfie uh he's in

interesting. I think Alfie uh he's in the chat, too. I think he made a great comment going back to what you started off with, and that's that the the path of the regime is where the edge is, not

exactly the regime that we're in. And I

feel like often the sentiment and the vibes is people mistracking or leaning too far in one way on the path of the regime or they're focused on

where we are now. So I think I think where your >> your work really comes into play is like seeing like via data and models is is

seeing where the puck is going and then we got to figure out >> if we generally >> if we're biased towards the puck going that way. How do we best express the

that way. How do we best express the biggest bet we can?

>> I think that's >> totally >> agreed. Agreed. Awesome. All right. Well

>> agreed. Agreed. Awesome. All right. Well

guys, all the research is laid out. You

can follow the work I'm doing at capital flows research.com. You can follow all

flows research.com. You can follow all the stuff that James is doing um on Twitter at his handle. It's on the screen right now. Um all of his YouTube videos are on his channel. They're all

really great resource. And I will be doing another live stream tomorrow, same time. So you guys show up tomorrow, same

time. So you guys show up tomorrow, same time, I'll have another live stream going. We'll be covering more on FOMC,

going. We'll be covering more on FOMC, the changes that are taking place, and then the next stage will be some more of these agentic models and FX models this

week. So with that, I will catch you

week. So with that, I will catch you guys later.