The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next

You've been running simulations on a war with Iran.

>> Yep. Every strategy for 20 years and it's playing out right now. So I can tell you that we are losing control of the situation. Like we don't know where

the situation. Like we don't know where that nuclear material is, but they have the material for 16 nuclear bombs and we've given them every incentive to develop them.

>> Professor Robert Pap might be the single most important credible person we all need to listen to right now. The Supreme

Leader that we took out was against nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader,

nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader, and he's way more aggressive.

>> He's advised two decades of presidents in the White House. President Trump is really stuck, but he thrives in chaos and spent 30 years building the curriculum that trains the Air Force for

the exact type of war that's taking place now in Iran. And one of the most mind-blowing things I've learned is that there are three stages to this conflict.

Unfortunately, Professor Robert Pape, who has two decades of being correct with his predictions, gives a 75% chance that Trump is about to escalate to stage three. In this episode, we're

going to explain exactly what this means.

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world. And uh yeah, let's do this.

Professor Robert P.

What the hell is going on in the world?

Now, I should ask I should ask first, who are you and what have you spent the last several decades of your life studying and doing and how does that relate to what's happening in the world right now?

>> We are going through a crisis uh more very intense right now, but it's a crisis that we have been through before.

um 20 years ago with the Iraq war. Uh

even before that um we saw the bombing of Gaddafi, we saw the reactions there.

Now I have been studying military strategy, air power, international terrorism, now terrorism inside the United States and also political violence in the United States. It's not

related to particular groups. So I've

been studying political violence for 40 years. What is the headline that people

years. What is the headline that people need to be aware of when you've looked at 30 years of these types of wars?

>> That bombs don't just hit targets, they change politics.

>> What does that mean?

>> That means that before the bombs fall and even as the bombs are falling now, we tend to focus on the tactical success of bombing. We tend to ask, did the

of bombing. We tend to ask, did the bombs hit the targets? And it's with the smart bomb age, it's almost mesmerizing.

They hit the target and destroy the target crater build crater dirt crater concrete destroy buildings 90% of the time. The problem is wars are not just

time. The problem is wars are not just about the hardware. They're not just about the military operation of putting a bomb on a target. They're about

politics. And when the bombs start to fall, the politics in both the target, the enemy change and the politics in the

attacker, the initiator change. And that

threshold is the beginning of what I'm calling the escalation trap because you get at stage one tactical success. Often

what's missing here is the next consideration which is politics. who

have you advised and at what level have you advised them on strategy, war, etc., etc. >> So, uh, in the when I finished my PhD, uh, right away we started to fight the

first Gulf War, which was an allair power war and I found my work from the 1980s suddenly more relevant than ever.

I was in the Washington Post, USA Today, frontline uh, designing the stories because, uh, we didn't have the talking military heads at the time. And then I get a call from the US Air Force and

they're asking me to come in and help not just teach but to build the curriculum. Then what happens as time

curriculum. Then what happens as time goes on, I end up I end up advising every White House from 2001 to 2024 uh including the first Trump White House.

>> I also heard that you've been running simulations on a war with Iran.

>> Yep. The last class of every strategy for 20 years. In fact, we did it just last uh uh last um uh May uh just before we started the bombing and 90 minutes.

So we the the class goes a whole quarter uh strategy in all kinds of different ways and we ended with the bombing of Iran and what did that mean? That meant

we uh look took out the whole target. We

have the target set laid out. We have

the attack plans. We really go through the bombing of Natans, Ford, uh Esfon there. there's a number of these

there. there's a number of these facilities and so forth. Um, and then we play out and then we look at what's going to happen and what you see right away is 90 plus% those B2s are going to

destroy those targets.

>> B2s being the aircraft >> these stealthy aircraft that can penetrate the airspace very few risk of small risk of loss and then you see but

we don't know where the nuclear material is. The whole point of this is not to

is. The whole point of this is not to destroy a building. It's to get at the

5% 20% 60% enriched uranium. That's the

material for bombs. And last May, it was very clear they had the material for 16 bombs. Now, not to

bombs. Now, not to >> 16 nuclear bombs.

>> One six >> nuclear bombs.

>> Yes, nuclear bombs. Not to produce them all in a single week, but over a period of months. And then at after we did that

of months. And then at after we did that simulation, we didn't know where a single ounce was. And we weren't going to know for months after. So at the end

of every I make some predictions. I say

what's going to happen? What's going to happen is after about a year, we are going to panic because that material could be dispersed anywhere in Iran, anywhere in that country. And that

country, look how big that is compared to the United States.

could be dispersed anywhere now. And how

many of those are are actually developing toward a bomb? We will not know. So what will we do? Regime change.

know. So what will we do? Regime change.

>> From all of your years in I mean 31 years old you start teaching about air power and and war in this regard. And

you are 65 now.

>> Yeah. What is the from everything you know 30 30 plus years studying this stuff Iran running simulations on Iran advising the White House being a master and probably arguably the most informed

person in the United States right now about air attacks like the one the US performing on Iran? What is the headline that you're trying to send to the world at this moment in time? Like what is it we're missing? Because we're seeing

we're missing? Because we're seeing Trump come out and Trump say it's going well. Everything's amazing. We've taken

well. Everything's amazing. We've taken

out all their guys. What is what what are we missing? We're missing that.

We're stuck in a trap of our own making.

I'll explain what that trap is. But the

key consequence of the trap is we're losing control. We are losing control of

losing control. We are losing control of the situation. And what you were seeing

the situation. And what you were seeing with President Trump is he's trying to regain control. Now the problem is that

regain control. Now the problem is that starting not just a week ago Saturday but starting back in June when we took

out Natan's fore we started to lose control and what are we losing control of knowing where that nuclear material

is and we now have civilian satellites and you can see them moving things. What

would they be moving around the nuclear areas? I wonder you think they're moving

areas? I wonder you think they're moving the the the the you know what are they moving here? It's most likely going to

moving here? It's most likely going to be that nuclear material cuz they're planned for this war just as we have except

they've been preparing for how to be resilient, how to now lash back in increasingly aggressive ways. They are

winning the escalation part of the war and that's not an accident. this you can see coming in stages.

>> But for anyone that doesn't know, we've got leaders that have different levels of sort of uh information and knowledge here. I'm going to try and summarize

here. I'm going to try and summarize this and butcher it in the most uh indelicate way I possibly can. So

earlier last year, last year the United States suspected that Iran were very close to enriching uranium. They're at

60%.

>> They're at 60 already.

>> If they get to 90%, they have a bomb. Uh

yes, but possibly even with the 60% Stephen. It depends on just how good

Stephen. It depends on just how good their scientists are and we're not really sure. So there's somewhere we're

really sure. So there's somewhere we're at 60%, we're already very worried. You

go to 90, it's a gimme.

>> And then the United States dropped these big bunker buster bombs. They flew those B2 um airplanes in, dropped these bombs, >> smashing up the site.

>> Yeah.

>> And then it felt like it was over. And

then we the United States went into negotiations with Iran to try and get some kind of deal done >> to get the material we didn't get. You

see, why are we even talking to them? If

this is really obliterated the program, why are we bothering to talk to them?

What exactly are we talking about here?

Do you notice the inconsistency here? So

when you say we thought it was over, that's the public. Okay. Now the public need to understand they're very busy people. They're playing for the price of

people. They're playing for the price of eggs. Okay? So, this is they're not

eggs. Okay? So, this is they're not supposed to be able to be up on us.

>> It's a good point. I've never thought about.

>> Yeah. Why would we be talking to them?

>> Why Why are we talking to them? You see,

so right from the get-go, and and by the way, all of the um it's the Israelis, uh we have a thing called the Defense Intelligence Agency. Um their reports

Intelligence Agency. Um their reports that were done after the bombing, uh were leaked and they all say the same thing, which is we created holes. We

probably shook these underground chambers. We're not sure because we had

chambers. We're not sure because we had no eyeballs on that, but we have no idea where that enriched uranium is. And we

have good reason to worry they got them out because we actually have a satellite picture that shows two days before we bomb Ford, there's a bunch of trucks

moving stuff out. Gee, what do you think you might move out if America's about to bomb your site again? I I don't think they're moving out the popcorn. So, um,

and it's pretty this material can be moved in what look like large scuba tank. They call them scuba tanks, but I

tank. They call them scuba tanks, but I I I I try to show pictures of this, too.

They're they're they're actually like as large as this table. So, you need basically trucks. Trucks like that

basically trucks. Trucks like that satellite photography shows they took out. So, so we can't say for sure, but

out. So, so we can't say for sure, but what you see is these are the indications that you worry they've dispersed the material even before we hit the site. So,

>> and then we attack.

>> Yeah.

>> The United States attacks in February.

February 2026, which is >> No. Feb. Yep. February 2026. February

>> No. Feb. Yep. February 2026. February

2028. We start again. This time with regime change. Notice we don't go even

regime change. Notice we don't go even after the physical m the nuclear material. We don't know where it is. So

material. We don't know where it is. So

for the average person, the average person would think if you take out the supreme leader, then the war is over.

Drop the bomb on the person and the war is complete.

>> Yeah. So let's talk about your your Jenga thing here because what what I find Stephen. So keep in mind I am

find Stephen. So keep in mind I am advising teaching some of the most brilliant minds in the in the country.

Now a lot of these smart people though, they don't know that they they've been given like one inch deep briefings, maybe even one sentence briefings. So

their image is often like this and it's wrong. This

is what they think the regime looks like. And they think that because

like. And they think that because they've been given b they basically have been consuming probably for years one or two sentences about the structure. They

know there's a supreme leader. They

might know there's nuclear facilities, missiles command. And so it looks like,

missiles command. And so it looks like, oh my goodness gracious, that if you could just simply take out the right node, you would be able to make this

whole thing fall down. Okay, but that's the wrong image, Stephen. This is the way smart people think. The problem is

this is a false image of most regimes, even the bad ones, and certainly the Iranian regime. Let me just focus on the

Iranian regime. Let me just focus on the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is

Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is more like a matrix. It's more it's not brittle the way this is. So you can keep

trying to pull things out but with a matrix or uh I think the corporate structures now are built to be adaptive to change because you have so many

changes that happen. The structure needs to adapt to change. That is basically the structure of revolutionary regimes going back to before World War I.

>> Okay. I want to ask a dumb question.

>> Y >> when they took out the supreme leader in Iran, I who's going to give out the instructions?

>> The adaptive system adapts and fills in the holes. It fills in the holes usually

the holes. It fills in the holes usually with what's left. And in this case, the supreme leader that we took out this

particular hole, this was the guy who had two fought was they're called these are religious edicts. It's like a people uh edict

>> against nuclear weapons. It's a

religious he's the leader of essentially the religion a little bit like the Shia pope >> and he um is actually issuing religious doctrine

>> and as and that's called a fatwa and as a religious doctrine he issued two that said Iran should not have nuclear weapons. The guy we killed was one of

weapons. The guy we killed was one of the guard rails against nuclear weapons.

How does that He was He was developing them in his >> No, no, he's developing the enrichment material. They hadn't been fashioned yet

material. They hadn't been fashioned yet that we know of as nuclear weapons.

Okay. So, we're worried about again this enrichment going from 5% to 20%, to 60%.

But they hadn't actually taken that next step, which is more of an engineering step to develop the nuclear weapon.

Now we took out the person who at the very tippy top was balancing the hawks and doves and he had decided for decades to issue this these fatwas. He did it

not just once but twice. His son who took over the new supreme leader no fatwa yet. That fatwa died with this

fatwa yet. That fatwa died with this guy. So will the new leader come in? uh

guy. So will the new leader come in? uh

it's not clear he's got the religious authority to do anything like what his father did. This is this is a very

father did. This is this is a very different world and he's known to be way more aggressive than his father. Uh he's

been in charge of the the bosi the uh basically the uh the the police that like to go and kill the protesters. He's

been the guy who's who's been very very uh strongly uh supporting if not leading that particular effort. And last night it was announced that he has been appointed as the new leader of

>> the new supreme leader.

>> Did did Trump expect this?

>> I think that he u expected it because he kept trying to talk the Iranians out of it. This is what he meant by uh last

it. This is what he meant by uh last week when President um Trump was saying that he wanted um uh not this guy. He

specifically said not the sun. And then

he he had a problem because people kept pushing him and they said, "Okay, well, if you don't like the son, who who would you pick?" And he said, "Well, it is a

you pick?" And he said, "Well, it is a problem because when we killed the Supreme Leader, we killed around the leader 20 or 30 others who we actually thought were better. So, we actually

took out the best alternatives when we killed the when the Supreme Leader was killed." And every So, everybody's

killed." And every So, everybody's scratching their heads going, "What are we talking about here?" So, so we actually helped the by killing the competitors to the sun,

>> we made it more likely the sun. And so

what I'm trying to explain, Stephen, is this adapts. Okay? So that you're not

this adapts. Okay? So that you're not really taking these uh pieces out.

You're rearranging them and you are moving up in this case.

You're moving up >> the next Supreme Leader. Well, it's

there's the Supreme Leader, but what we're not showing here, you're see you're seeing the target sets that are being discussed. You're not seeing the

being discussed. You're not seeing the Revolutionary Guard.

>> What is that?

>> That is part of the army. The Iran has a million men in arms. A million. That's

is that's as many as we have in our 300 million people. They have 92 million.

million people. They have 92 million.

They have a million in arms. And about 150 or 200,000 of them are what are called the revolutionary guards. These

are the most aggressive, the most uh well-trained. Um these are the most

well-trained. Um these are the most dedicated to the regime. The news the son who just we just uh just took over

is the prime candidate for that group.

So when we took out a link here, it's not just being replaced by another It's being replaced by a very aggressive individual who's backed by some of the

most aggressive part of that millionman army. So this is what I was trying to

army. So this is what I was trying to explain in my substacks where when you take out the leader, you may kill the leader, but you get in its place a

harder regime, a more resilient regime, a tougher regime that wants to lash back even more aggressively >> because you killed dad.

>> You killed dad. And also, if you don't lash back, how does the new leader get his credibility with everybody else? If

he's a wimp, why doesn't he get a bullet in the back of the head? You see the new just because he's appointed a new leader, he's still just just like when you're the head of a new uh company like

let's say you take over a there's a company that's in shambles and they get rid of their CEO and they bring you on.

Okay? Well, you got to have a plan. You

see, and if you don't have a plan to turn that thing around pretty soon, you know, Elon Musk had to have the big plan. If you don't have that plan, guess

plan. If you don't have that plan, guess what? You're out. Same here. So you have

what? You're out. Same here. So you have incentive structure here for not just replacing not just wimpy replacements

certainly not pro-American replacements.

You have incentives for lashing back against the attacker. Which is why when we tried to kill Gaddafi in 1986, he

lashes back and uh takes out Panama Flight 103, killing 271 civilians, 190 Americans. When we try to take out the

Americans. When we try to take out the Malloic regime to degrade it in uh March 99, Malloic lashes back, sending 30,000

ground forces into cleanse, that is get rid of a million civilians in Kosovo. uh

this over and over.

>> I mean you have written books about suicide terrorism.

>> That's right.

>> I've got one of them in front of me here called dying to win. So I mean you know a lot about this subject and this is one of the concerns that actually my fiance had said to me. She said I explained to her I was like you know Iran they really just have drones at the moment so I

think that's fine. And then she posed a question to me. She was like yeah but what about suicide terrorism?

>> Let me just explain. So here we are. It

is uh here is of course Iran and imagine it's back in June. So I'm going to start the story in June. This is the beginning of the smart bomb the escalation trap

stage one. We hit uh Foro which is right

stage one. We hit uh Foro which is right around there and then we hit Natans uh and some other sites right around here.

And what does Iran do here? They lash

back. And who are they lashing back against? Israel here. They have their

against? Israel here. They have their missiles focused on Israel. They're not

really hitting our bases here. They're

hitting Israel and they send 3,000 Israelis to the hospital, the most since the 73 war. So, a long time. That is

stage one. Okay. Now, what happened when in February 28? February 28, they're lashing back a bit against Israel for sure, but now they're at stage two. This

is why I published this piece today in foreign affairs about how Iran's winning the escalation war. So it just came out just a few hours before we came on. And

what's happening here is called I call it horizontal escalation because what they're doing now is they're using drones mostly a few missiles but mostly drones. This was almost all missiles no

drones. This was almost all missiles no drones and they're using their drone capacity which they have a lot of and it's precision. These drones are like

it's precision. These drones are like precisiong guided weapons. They go right to the target and what they're trying to do is break this coalition.

>> For anyone that can't see at the moment that they counted with horizontal escalation against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, >> the coalition that had been formed against them, they're trying to break

the coalition, you see.

>> Um, and they may well do that.

>> Why Why would they want to break that?

Why my friends are escaping Dubai at the moment? And I've got a friend staying in

moment? And I've got a friend staying in my house in Cape Town because he doesn't want to be >> because they want these countries to kick the Americans out of their country.

>> Okay?

>> Get rid of the uh embassies. Get rid of the bases. If you can then we don't have

the bases. If you can then we don't have the platforms to plaster them. You see,

these are our basically groundbased aircraft carriers. I thought they were

aircraft carriers. I thought they were they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for example, because that will make Saudi Arabia call Trump and say, "Listen, stop, please. We're losing our tour

stop, please. We're losing our tour tourism. We're shutting our airports."

tourism. We're shutting our airports."

But well they do want to they are threatening the tourism hitting the economic nodes they're hitting uh hotels uh they're hitting the airports what

they are trying to do is by threatening tourism which it varies from 5% to 10% of the GDP of these countries. It's not

trivial amounts here. They're basically

trying to drive wedges between these countries and America. And America right now, I don't see any movement through Congress. I where where is this hundred

Congress. I where where is this hundred billion dollars going to the region to make up for their lost tourism? I I

don't remember seeing that bill come through Congress last week. So, um, I'm just putting a little humorously to point out these countries are losing a fair bit right now and that tourism may not come back for a while.

>> I've got friends that are that have moved.

>> I've got friends that one of my friends was thinking about leaving is now in my house in Cape Town and he's been there for 5 years. He's leaving and he's going to move to America. I've got so many friends that have called you

>> and imagine that we have 500,000 American citizens here and we have the State Department on CNN. call this

number, we'll help you escape.

>> It's even the media in the UK, you see it. It's like it's they're showing like

it. It's like it's they're showing like the BBC are showing like evacuations of UK citizens as they're being greeted in the airport, putting microphones.

>> So, this is putting a lot of pressure here and there's something else that's not widely known, which is there's a big gap between what the leaders of the

countries want willing to support US and Israel and their publics. You see, this coalition that's been built against Iran

here is not clearly going down well with Publix. These are publiclix. They may

Publix. These are publiclix. They may

not like Iran. They may be Sunni and Iran Shia, but they don't want to be part of an Israeli expansion plan where Israel is going to conquer more and more territory and so forth. And so this is

this is this is where the soft underbelly here of this this isn't just about the tourism. That's the short term. The longer term is bottomup

term. The longer term is bottomup pressure. Uh Sadat, he was a leader of

pressure. Uh Sadat, he was a leader of Egypt in the 1970s. He cut a deal with uh Israel. It's called the Camp David

uh Israel. It's called the Camp David Accords. Peace uh uh for land. There was

Accords. Peace uh uh for land. There was

but it was very favorable. Well, after

Saddat did that, the president of Egypt in 1981 in a military parade, his own security guards at the military parade

marched with their guns, came up to his place, and they shot him dead.

So, you don't this is the real world here. So, this is very, very dangerous

here. So, this is very, very dangerous for these leaders. Now, that's stage two. Now, what what happens if we decide

two. Now, what what happens if we decide to have one of these limited ground uh uh deployments here? Because after all, we still don't know where this material is.

>> What does that mean? So, for anyone that doesn't know anything about the war, what does a a ground deployment mean?

Cuz I I saw Trump being asked about this on the plane yesterday, and he didn't seem to deny it was going to happen. It

means you try to control a limited amount of space, say the space around Fordo or the the nuclear facility that you bombed in June, and you would send

the say 82nd Airborne in to control the space.

>> This I don't know what any of this stuff is.

>> I see. So 82nd Airborne is is a division that we have that's especially equipped to uh go into hostile area and land and

control say airports control space.

Think about controlling all the size of LAX.

>> Mhm.

>> So if you want to control LAX, you bring in the 82nd Airborne. They will have 5,000 men and women, not just guys now.

And they will come in and they will control that space LAX, but they will also be doing this probably not for a day, not for even a week. They're going

to have to spend weeks and weeks to search for that material because we don't know where it is and it's all deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has

been the the entrances have been blown up. So this means this means long-term

up. So this means this means long-term presence there. You might also take some

presence there. You might also take some of the oil fields to cut off some of the um money uh here for the uh uh for the regime. That is where that book comes

regime. That is where that book comes in.

>> Do you think it's likely that America will put boots on the ground, American soldiers in Iran?

>> I think it's at least 50/50 if not immediately. So people keep expecting

immediately. So people keep expecting the escalation to be continuous and then when there's a pause uh as there was between June and February, they think, "Oh, it's over. I'm going to go now

worry about something else." And then believe me, there's plenty else to worry about. So we got Minneapolis. We got

about. So we got Minneapolis. We got

plenty to worry about here, even with violence. But that's not how escalation

violence. But that's not how escalation operates. Escalation

operates. Escalation can happen have a ratchet effect that has that's spaced out by months of what

seems like peace only to come right back and you're stuck in that escalation momentum >> which is what we've seen >> which is exactly what we've seen and for

the reason I'm telling you we don't know where that nuclear material is that has been the $64,000

weakness in this entire entire idea of using air power not just in the last 10 days going back to June. It's not just even about the regime change. It's about

how are you going to get that nuclear material out. We had a deal this deal

material out. We had a deal this deal with Obama. Trump did not like it. But

with Obama. Trump did not like it. But

with that deal that held and Iran took out almost all virtually just only a tiny bit was left. They not enough for a bomb. all out of the country and we

bomb. all out of the country and we watched it. We monitored it. We had 24/7

watched it. We monitored it. We had 24/7 cameras to monitor this. We had human on-site inspections to monitor this.

2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked away unilaterally, and from that point on, it's been pedal to the metal by Iran in upgrading that enriched uranium. And

that's how you got to that material that would be enough for the 16 bombs. And

right now, we don't know where that is.

So >> yeah, >> stage one is >> okay stage one you are beginning the escalation trap. In this case it's a

escalation trap. In this case it's a smart bomb trap but it because it's with smart bombs where you have tactical success near perfect call it 100%

because it it really is but that doesn't mean you have strategic success tactical success plus strategic failure.

Then that strategic failure weighs on you over time because the enemy still got the thing that you wanted to get in the first place. Now you do stage two, which is regime change because after

all, you've already hit the targets. You

can make the rubble bounce, but what more? That's why we didn't bomb them in

more? That's why we didn't bomb them in the last 10 days. We might go back and bomb for some more. Okay, but we already bombed that. So, so there's only

bombed that. So, so there's only watching the bubble, but now we're in stage two because what are your options?

The only other option is well let me get rid of the regime because then the regime I will control and the next regime will just give us the material.

That's not working now. And you hear today Trump is dancing trying to figure out what to say. He doesn't want to say the war's over. Okay. Doesn't want to say the war is going on. But the bottom

line is we don't even he won't even be clear about why we're fighting the war anymore. And I'm telling you there's a

anymore. And I'm telling you there's a real problem. The nuclear material is

real problem. The nuclear material is still there.

and it can still be fashioned into those 16 bombs over time. So this is where then you get this horizontal escalation where now they've really really working on this because now it's a long war.

>> They start attacking their neighbors >> and tried to make it a uh the consequences go on for months. So just

imagine when are your friends exactly going to move back? So let's say the war is over tomorrow. Are they moving back tomorrow? And when was uh last time uh

tomorrow? And when was uh last time uh have you started to plan for your next vacation in Dubai? I've been I was I was planning speaking there in a month's time, but it's been cancelled already.

>> Well, just Yeah, just starting to think about that and you know, minor thing like a drone attack could suddenly come out of nowhere. You know, you're not even you think it's I'm just trying to point out that this is this is the world now that a lot of people this was a

luxury market. This was the playground

luxury market. This was the playground of the rich and famous here. This is

really now changing and it may come back a year or two from now, but it took two years for air travel to come back after 911. Just think about that. this. Now,

911. Just think about that. this. Now,

we haven't gotten to stage three yet, which gets to your girlfriend's point.

>> How do we move from stage two to stage three?

>> Oh, well, because you still don't know where the the nuclear material is, >> and we don't have to move to stage beyond uh to stage three this week. We

could do it a month from now, 6 months from now. The problem is we've now put

from now. The problem is we've now put in place a much more aggressive leadership, much more aggressive regime.

We've taken away some of the uh what may have been guardrails. who can't say for sure for the nuclear weapon. This this

new regime much more likely and we've given them every incentive to develop the nuclear bomb. We're killing them.

So, so what exactly is their incentive?

They're they're their best way to survive is to have a nuclear weapon. And

you'll say, "Well, we're going to kill them." Well, we're already killing them.

them." Well, we're already killing them.

So, we've taken away their incentive not to have a nuclear weapon. So, we will start to worry as each week goes by. Not

because we have great intel, not because our human well, it's because of the opposite. We don't have the exquisite

opposite. We don't have the exquisite intelligence we had with the Obama deal to know we had frozen the program. Now,

that we have Swiss cheese at best. And

what we will see in the holes of the Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear development. And that will make us worry

development. And that will make us worry because what happens with the nuclear weapon is it going to go to Hezbollah and is Hezbollah going to help put it in uh uh uh Hifa? What's going to happen

with these? Are we going to give is are

with these? Are we going to give is are they going to give it to the Houthies?

So these are the kind of worries we will have that will push us to the ground options and that that is with stage

three the retaliation approaches the homeland >> is that realistic >> if ISIS with its 30 to 40,000 uh

remember ISIS was not a state Iran is an actual state with 92 million people so if ISIS can fment commander directed

inspired suicide attacks and other attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind of bring it a little bit closer to home here across the United States. Paris,

remember the big Paris attack. So why

exactly is Iran not if I mean ISIS was a lot weaker than Iran?

>> Do you think in Iran at the moment they're working on that? They're working

on a terrorist attack. Well, I don't I think that my work tells me that it's most likely to come with the presence of the ground forces by us. Doesn't mean

it's it's a necessary condition, but it's just most likely. Russia in 96 with our help, we played a trick on them.

Assassinated the Chchin leader. It's a

leader of its republic in uh in Russia called Cheschna Dunv. Only a million people. And Russia um killed the guy.

people. And Russia um killed the guy.

And we actually have pictures of him seeing the the missile hitting him because we can put the cameras right in the nose cone.

Then the new guy took over. His name was Bazv. And he uh launched within three

Bazv. And he uh launched within three months, not the next week, Operation Jihad. And his operation jihad was much

Jihad. And his operation jihad was much more vicious tactics. Kick the Russian forces. Russia is a big country. You

forces. Russia is a big country. You

know, hundred almost 200 million people compared to this little province of a million. Kicked the Russians out after

million. Kicked the Russians out after three months. Launches a waves of

three months. Launches a waves of suicide attacks, massive kidnappings here. This really went on for years and

here. This really went on for years and years. So when you say, are they

years. So when you say, are they planning it? I I don't think it's quite

planning it? I I don't think it's quite right, Stephen. It's not like they have

right, Stephen. It's not like they have the detailed plan they're about to execute. they have the next wave of

execute. they have the next wave of possibilities which would come I think most likely with stage two so stage three so as this is expanding as the war expands it will

go global >> really >> you are already seeing it global with the supply chain and you're seeing it with the oil so that's already happening so um what Iran said today the the uh

response to Trump's press conference today that just literally happened before we came on is okay we will allow Gulf States your oil tankers to come

through if you kick the Americans out.

So kick the Americans out and we'll let you pass.

>> If you don't, >> if you don't, we got drones. So they

didn't put that in there, but everybody knows they got drones.

>> And again, for if you were explaining this to a 16-year-old.

>> Yeah.

>> Just to keep it super simple, there's this passageway across the water where a lot of the oil tankers go.

>> Yep. It's straight of Hormuz.

>> Hormuz. And it sounded like the tankers are refusing to go through there at the moment.

>> Sure. Because one has been hit, but it only takes one to be hit with a drone.

Only one. Because the people driving those tankers here, they're doing it for a paycheck, not a bullet. They're not

really wanting to die for this. This

isn't a nationalist cause to ship the the oil.

>> Explain why it matters to the world. If

if oil doesn't go through this straight of Hummus, what matter? What happens?

>> Yeah. Well, we can talk about it in like technical terms, but the big thing to say is this is what's going to increase the price of gas at the pump and it's

already gone up. When you cut the flow of the oil, it has global effects. It

doesn't just affect this little region here. It doesn't just affect China over

here. It doesn't just affect China over here. It affects everybody. And that's

here. It affects everybody. And that's

why the Europeans are starting to freak out because this they're already every government worries about we talk about affordability. That's about to change.

affordability. That's about to change.

>> And is this your point about how it changes the politics at home because people someone goes to the pump today, they go why is the oil higher?

>> That's right. Why is the we just came we we now have 4.4% unemployment. Um if we and and President Trump was trying to say it's all getting better, the

interest rates are going down. Well,

that all predicated on us not having inflation. You see, when the oil is cut,

inflation. You see, when the oil is cut, the inflation goes up, the affordability becomes a problem. That is what is

panicking a lot of the businesses right now because they're going to lose business and and it's a problem of risk.

It's not just about the damage. So, a

little a few of these drones can have an inordinate effect on risk. Now let's

bring in another piece which is Russia we find out is providing targeting intelligence to Iran much the way we

provide targeting intelligence to Ukraine to hit uh uh targets in Russia.

And what does that mean? That means

those drones which are precisiong guided now can more easily find exactly which ship to hit. So

>> we know that Russia are doing that.

because we've got it pretty well confirmed from Yeah. It's you would hear much more push back here. And what

you're hearing from Secretary Hegsth is not it's not happening. You're saying,

"Oh, no. Well, let's not overw worry."

No, it's happening. And they're worried because that's the that's the again the dancing around. They're not denying the

dancing around. They're not denying the fact that it's actually happening.

>> I think Trump actually when asked said something words to the effect of, "I wouldn't blame them because that's what we do to them."

>> Exactly. Exactly. And why is he talking to Putin today? He's not talking He was just on the phone with Putin before he did his press conference. What's he

talking to Putin about? Bad intel, I'm sure, and maybe cutting a deal, which is we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if you deny. You see, this is the this is

you deny. You see, this is the this is this is the the cascading effects of the politics dominates the tactics.

>> And that's exactly what Trump said. He

said on March the 7th when asked about Russia teaming up with Iran on intelligence, he said, "If we asked them, they'd say, "We do it against them." Wouldn't they say that we do it

them." Wouldn't they say that we do it against them?

It's almost justifying it.

>> Trump often just speaks his mind. Uh

sometimes he kind of hides things, but some often he speaks his mind. And what

you're seeing here is of this is the natural thing. Russia is uh what's good

natural thing. Russia is uh what's good for the goose, good for the gander.

They're doing the same thing to us that we've done to them. And they have and they're doing it to hurt us, you see. So

rather than just spasmotically or spasm response here, which we often think the the foes we're up against are stupid. We

essentially think they're dumb. We call

that irrational. But what's really happening, Stephen, is um since the Vietnam War, we have been up against foes that have understood something about America, which is the way to get

at us is polit politically. Make it a long war. Play the politics. You can't

long war. Play the politics. You can't

go toe-to-toe with us on the battlefield. We'll just clean their

battlefield. We'll just clean their clock over and over. They don't often try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us.

try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us.

We lost the Vietnam War with never losing a battle. How did we lose? We

lost the long game. 58,000 dead, no end in sight, a forever war. What are we doing this for? That is how the North

Vietnamese won. And that's how the

Vietnamese won. And that's how the Afghan Taliban won. That's how the bad guys typically beat us. They don't

always win, but the bottom line is we have a soft underbelly. It's not the military.

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>> What do you think happens next? If you

had to, no offense sitting. Yeah.

>> If you had to predict what you think happens next, what would you predict?

>> Well, I say this at the end of the foreign affairs article that just literally came out a couple hours ago, which is President Trump is on the horns of a dilemma and he has no golden

offramp. He's looking for offramps, but

offramp. He's looking for offramps, but there's no golden one where he comes out politically ahead. So, he's got a

politically ahead. So, he's got a choice, sometimes called a Hobbesian choice, a Hobsonian choice where you cut your losses, accept political loss now.

And right now, if he pulls back, and what does it mean to pull back? You got

to pull your forces back. It's not

enough to say you're just doing a pause.

If you want to stop, if you want to stop for real, you take those aircraft carriers and you send them out somewhere. You send them to Asia. You

somewhere. You send them to Asia. You

send them here. You got to actually make you got to do something here. So, choice

one is you stop your bombing campaign.

You cut your losses. You do your best to say we just wanted to destroy missiles even though nobody will believe it.

Okay. Um but that means you accept a a modest loss now. Or the other is you double down and you go on for more weeks. go on for more weeks hoping

weeks. go on for more weeks hoping you'll kill this leader and maybe the next one won't be so bad or you'll you'll have some other sort of uh outcome that you can't imagine. And

Trump is nothing I call him a chaos kid.

He thrives in chaos and he often comes out of this with something happening like when you know sort of down the road you didn't expect it. He probably didn't expect it. But in this case, the price

expect it. But in this case, the price is more likely going to be a political failure of the first order because we have the midterms coming. So if if he

he's got a choice, stop now, cut your losses, accept a limited political defeat, or double down, go on for a few months, go through more stages of this

uh smart bomb trap I'm explaining, and you're really now in Lynden Johnson territory. Remember I mentioned before

territory. Remember I mentioned before where in Vietnam he kept escalating, kept moving up the escalation ladder.

Every rung he said, "Well, no, we have escalation dominance. We're just going

escalation dominance. We're just going to double down. We're going to hit them harder the next time. We're going to do this the next time." Sound familiar? And

then what happened is it became absolutely clear uh that this was going nowhere and the 68 election came was coming and Lynden Johnson's own

Democrats said, "Mr. president, we can't ride your horse into that. We got to do something. And the problem is they

something. And the problem is they didn't pull the plug fast enough here.

That's how they lost. They don't they they don't pull the plug fast enough.

So, you end up having a bigger loss later.

>> When you talk about the the um underbelly that the United States has where they can't prolong these wars, am I right in thinking this is basically a function or a a consequence of living in a democracy where every four years

>> I I think it's a function of a war of choice. So when we were attacked in

choice. So when we were attacked in Pearl Harbor, we were attacked.

>> We were reluctant to get in World War II and we were we didn't get in until we were actually struck at Pearl Harbor.

That was enough to really make us angry.

We were pissed off as a country. Okay?

And we were going to get payback not just for a month, but we were getting some real payback here. And that's how vicious that island hopping campaign was and why it was so vicious here. And that

went on and on. And when we ended the war um in in dropping those atomic bombs, 22% of the American public wanted us to forget the Japanese surrender and

drop more atomic bombs. 22%. We are that angry. So when we are attacked first, we

angry. So when we are attacked first, we have the politics and our advantage.

When we do a war of choice, we can make up all the reasons why it was a good idea to start throw the first punch.

They were going to hit us. We were gonna But when we throw that first punch first, that's a war of choice. And this

puts the politics in the other camp's advantage. And that's the problem that

advantage. And that's the problem that we're facing here. Iran didn't hit us first. They didn't hit us first in June.

first. They didn't hit us first in June.

They didn't hit us first before that.

>> So on this point of war of choice, >> y there's really two questions I have front of mind. One is was Trump right that if he didn't attack then they would

have enriched uranium they would have made a nuclear weapon and that would have put not just the region but the world at danger in your view and then the second one is this sort of ongoing

debate around the role of Israel in this war and I think it was Marco Rubio that came out and I think maybe accidentally said that the reason why they attacked

Iran was because they heard that Israel were about to attack Iran.

>> So, so let's go back to the Friday, the day before we start the bombing campaign. This is February 27, literally

campaign. This is February 27, literally 3:15 Washington time. That's when Trump makes the go decision. But what's in his

what what is he choosing between? He has

an offer on the table from Iran for a better deal than the Obama deal for America. And it is uh it's not

America. And it is uh it's not absolutely perfect. They still want to

absolutely perfect. They still want to have some minor enrichment to but that uh verification lots of things here. Now

maybe it's still not perfect but President Trump has a choice on that Friday afternoon. He can go back and he

Friday afternoon. He can go back and he can work this deal. He can, you know, after all dealmaker, right? Let's let's

assume he's good at dealmaking. So he

can go back and work the deal. But

that's not what he does. What he does is he throws that deal away. And also the supreme leader when he killed that's the supreme leader was on board with that deal too. And what do we do instead? We

deal too. And what do we do instead? We

we go through regime change. So the

choices here Stephen were before we got to stage two we were in stage one. Stage

one we had hit fore it it would there were were negotiations and Iran's coming up with a better deal than the Obama deal. And what does he do? he goes to

deal. And what does he do? he goes to stage two instead. So I don't think this is this this story you're hearing they were gonna do X Y or Z is there was a

deal on the table and >> why did Rubio say that then? Why did he say that they attacked? Because Israel

were going to attack.

>> Okay, I want to play this video which is what I'm referring to.

>> Okay, >> if we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties. And

so the president made the very wise decision. He we knew that there was

decision. He we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew

that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even hire those killed. And then

we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and didn't act.

>> So what that shows you is that it's the tail wagging the dog that Israel is going to attack. as I'm saying just happened in June. It's a replay of what

happened in June. Israel may well have We don't know why Israel decided to attack and kill the Supreme Leader. It

was actually Israeli bombs who killed the Supreme Leader. Uh and also those other replacement leaders as well. But

Israel may well have been thinking that my goodness, Trump is getting too close to a deal. That's what happened in June.

Trump was on the edge of a deal with Iran and then Israel goes and kills the negotiators. You see? So just think

negotiators. You see? So just think about that for a moment. They're ne

Trump is negotiating with the Iranians and then they say, "Well, okay, come back the next day and what is there the next day? Israeli bombs killing them."

next day? Israeli bombs killing them."

>> So I mean, that's not a good that's not a great way to handle a partnership.

>> Well, it's just it's just showing you we had another choice. We could have told Israel not to do it. We could have told Israel if you do this, we're going to cut off all your military aid for the next three years. That would be put some

pressure on Israel. now then Trump would have to pay a price politically. So I'm

not saying that's an easy thing to do.

Don't get me wrong, but we need to understand that that Trump these are the these are the pressures for escalation in the escalation trap. So I'm trying to

explain why this isn't just randomly happening, Stephen. It's not like, oh my

happening, Stephen. It's not like, oh my goodness, I can't follow what's occurring. So that's why when Trump says

occurring. So that's why when Trump says in today's briefing uh talks about stopping the air campaign, is he going to stop Israel's campaign? That's the

question that did not come up today.

It's in my I put on my accent. The one

of the big questions that did not come up is President Trump, are you going to call Netanyahu and tell him to stop bombing Iraq?

>> Does Trump control Netanyahu in your view?

>> Well, again, it's about pressures here.

It's about what are the uh what are the ways you you you you don't it's not about a matter of like a personal loyalty relationship. This is politics

loyalty relationship. This is politics of the first order. That's what I'm trying to explain. So for President Trump to stop Netanyahu from doing this, this will be paying a price. He will

have a there are a big part of his MAGA constituency is very pro not just Israel pro-Netanyahu version of Israel. So, this is the tension in and the politics that I'm

trying to explain, which is why you don't really want to start the trap in the first place.

>> And I asked you a second ago, no fence sitting, what happens next in this war based on everything you've studied for the last 30 years, the 20 years of doing >> I think it's more likely than not that maybe not in the next week or two. I've

said uh on my substack it's more likely than not we will get to a limited um uh ground deployment here because of the fizzle because of the I'm keep saying because of the the enriched material

that is floating around and we know it's dispersing. We know it's dispersing. We

dispersing. We know it's dispersing. We

don't know where it is. And there could be literally hundreds of rooms not much bigger than this size, maybe two or three times this size that we're in.

That could be used to uh fashion an an a fat man style a bomb. Not to

miniaturaturize it, to put on a warhead.

That would be more sophisticated. But if

what you want to do is you want to have a Hiroshima bomb that can kill 75,000 people in a second or 10 seconds, that

is what they are in the the the the that's what we're talking about here.

We're not talking about can they put miniaturaturize the bomb to put it on the nose cone of a war of a missile.

This is they don't need to. That's very

sophisticated stuff. We couldn't do that for 10 years.

>> So I guess there's two there's two questions that come to mind. The first

is to understand someone's behavior, you have to like understand their motivations. And I I think a lot about

motivations. And I I think a lot about like where Trump is in his career, legacy, how how much that matters to him. It appears from what I've seen, the whole thing around him

wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, the the Peace Board, the being the president that stops all, it appears that he's thinking about how he's going to be remembered. And when I'm looking at some of his interviews recently, he's saying things like, "I don't want it to

be the case that in 10 years time or in 5 years time, the US have to go back in again because like I didn't do a good job." And it made me start to believe

job." And it made me start to believe that actually one of his one of the reasons why we might escalate this war further from a United States perspective is because

legacy changes in hindsight. And if we think about George W. Bush,

>> I think you're putting your finger on it Stephen.

>> George W. Bush's legacy now is like completely tarnished because of this one war and actually how it ended.

>> Yeah. But also

>> it's a mistake in hindsight.

>> But also now mirror image that to the Iranians. Why aren't they thinking about

Iranians. Why aren't they thinking about their legacy?

>> Think about that for a moment. Why would

the Supreme Leader 86 years old decide he's not going to take too many more precautions? How many more months does

precautions? How many more months does he had cancer apparently? How many more months does he got? How does he want to go out? How does he really want to go

go out? How does he really want to go out? What's he want to be remembered

out? What's he want to be remembered for? A coward or does he want to be

for? A coward or does he want to be remembered as somebody who stood up for Iran, the revolution, the whole thing he built his whole life for? You talk about

Trump where so when I get into behind when the cameras go off and I get a chance to uh again, let's just say go to the West Wing. I'm not seeing people

being picky, minor, petty. I see them worried about their legacy.

the national security adviserss, their assistance. They're worrying about their

assistance. They're worrying about their legacy. Do they want to go down in in

legacy. Do they want to go down in in the history of American history as X, Y, or Z? And this is how humans are. It

or Z? And this is how humans are. It

doesn't stop uh with like how much money do you have? It's what's going to happen with your legacy.

>> So with that in mind, if you think Trump is legacy motivated, does that increase the >> in part? I want to be careful in part.

it's always he can't be reelected. So

I'm like that's not motivating him because you know you play differently if you think you can win a second term which I knew would be important to him.

But the if he is legacy motivated now when you think about which direction he's going to grow go in it does appear on the balance of things that he's not going to want it to be left a mess. And

the biggest mess that could really embarrass him and his legacy uh in with international is if Iran has a nuclear bomb and they detonate a test say next

September.

Let's just imagine what would happen next September. So people need to think

next September. So people need to think about see the discussion of Iran and nuclear bombs here is not very strategic. It's to scare you. It's oh

strategic. It's to scare you. It's oh

they're going to get a bomb and the first one's going to go on Tel Aviv. The

second one's going to go on New York. I

don't think that's the sequence. Why

would they? Why? If they're willing to commit suicide to take out Tel Aviv, they don't need 16 bombs. Okay? If

they're willing to have their entire population destroyed by they just need one bomb, take out Tel Aviv, they're done, right? That's not what's going on.

done, right? That's not what's going on.

They're following the North Korea plan.

The North Korea plan that North Korea figured out when we went through this with North Korea in the '9s. Okay? the

very same thing except we didn't do the bombing cuz cuz it was not going to we didn't get we we avoided the trap. What

they want is multiple bombs at the same time. So what they want to do if they

time. So what they want to do if they can do this is have say five bombs working at the same time and the first

bomb goes off as a test in the mountains. In the mountains and then

mountains. In the mountains and then what do we say? Oh, they blew it.

They're stupid. They blew their one test and then they do a second test.

Still in their mountains. Okay. When we

dropped the first bomb on Hiroshima, wasn't clear we had any more. When we

dropped the second one, nobody needed to wait for a third or fourth. Nobody

really we they knew more would come. You

see what I mean? So with Iran the this is again we're talking about now um you know let's let's call it the brown belt or black belt strategy here that they

are and notice they have been very smart in their escalation.

What you would do is the North Korea strategy which is again you want multiple bombs and then you want to do some tests and even if one doesn't quite work you want to have another. You want

to have multiple bombs so that you can do multiple tests. You see, and that is how North Korea basically stopped Trump

trying to kill the leader. So notice

that Trump wants to say it was just his winning personality because, you know, Trump is so charming here. But North

Korea now has 60 working nuclear weapons as, you know, best we can tell. And the

idea that uh we're going to start killing leaders in North Korea anytime soon, I'm not sure that's going to happen.

>> They're kind of immune now, right? Well,

and notice that Ukraine had a bunch of nuclear weapons in the 90s, gave them up, and there's a lot of people in Ukraine right now are saying, "Boy, I wish we had those nuclear weapons back or else we wouldn't be fighting this

war." So, you start to look at the

war." So, you start to look at the history. Why does America have nuclear

history. Why does America have nuclear weapons here? Are we an evil country and

weapons here? Are we an evil country and the reason we have is because we're evil? We want it for our security. So,

evil? We want it for our security. So,

why doesn't Iran want it for their security? So, this is the strategy part

security? So, this is the strategy part that we have to the politics. Steve and

I keep trying to talk about.

>> So you're saying your prediction is that we're going to move to stage three where Trump >> Okay, I'll go 7525.

>> 75% which way?

>> That we will put we will send in some ground forces to get that dispersed material. Um the only 25% would be if

material. Um the only 25% would be if somehow magically the Iranians gave it to us.

>> So >> So that's where the 25% comes from because there is some chance >> that there there's some I don't want to I mean we live in the real world um here. So I but I think the problem we're

here. So I but I think the problem we're going to face is it's going to become more and if you're in Iran right now exactly why aren't you fashioning the

nuclear weapon? We're already killing

nuclear weapon? We're already killing you. We can pause for months and say we

you. We can pause for months and say we won't kill you and then you wake up one day and you're dead. This we've done this movie now several times on Iran.

Your best chance of survival is a nuclear weapon. And so we now know that,

nuclear weapon. And so we now know that, our intel knows that, Israel now knows it, we've taken these options. Uh so

unless Trump will make a deal, that's that 25%. So I I think if he makes a

that 25%. So I I think if he makes a deal, then there's a chance that Iran will go forward here.

>> If the 75% path plays out, >> Yep.

>> we put boots on the ground.

>> Yep.

>> What happens then?

>> Now we're at stage three. Now we've

moved to stage three because we have to search very not just so we will start by deploying ground forces in a very

limited area. Say we're going to go to

limited area. Say we're going to go to Esphon it's called that's that's the the uh do we have a >> I mean you could try and write on there does that work?

>> Um the thing I'm trying to explain yeah assume this is Iran. Yeah. Okay. We will

start by putting in um a small footprint and again we have several options here to do it. Um and so the hunt will be for

the enriched material. But let's say that we even find it Stephen, how do we know that in the intervening almost a

year since the bombing, 10 months since the bombing, how do we know they haven't enriched more somewhere else? Because

this is what happened with um the WMD and Iraq and Sodom Hussein in the '9s through 2003. We had inspectors in. We

through 2003. We had inspectors in. We

could never be sure. There wasn't

material.

And the problem was over time the fear got worse and worse and worse. And the

fear is a nuclear handoff or the radiological handoff. You hand off some

radiological handoff. You hand off some of that material to Hezbollah to the Houthis. They

Houthis. They >> who are Hezbollah and the Houthies?

They're like >> they are terrorist groups.

>> They we call them terrorist groups. Um

and the uh and Hezbollah uh which is this famous terrorist group started in 1982. How did Hezbollah start? Where'd

1982. How did Hezbollah start? Where'd

it come from?

>> Is it the CIA again?

>> No, it's Israel. Israel invades southern Lebanon in June of 82 with 78,000 combat soldiers. 3,000 tanks and armor

soldiers. 3,000 tanks and armor vehicles. So, think about that. That's

vehicles. So, think about that. That's

like invading Chicago with 78,000. So,

just or LA with 78,000.

Okay? So, they invade uh southern Lebanon with 78,000. Israel does. One

month later, Hezbollah is born as resistance movement. So, Hezbollah was

resistance movement. So, Hezbollah was born out of resistance to Israel. They

have hated Israel from the beginning because that's how they were born. You

see? So what you have is you have a group that's hot been radical since and since 82 this has been going on since 82.

Israel just can't put that country that Hezbollah group out of business. And

what are they doing literally this week?

They're trying to depopulate this Beirut, the city of Beirut. Because what

happens when you go up against terrorist groups, which we haven't described, but the terrorist group here is like a group that's in a sea of people. Okay? and you

keep saying all I want to do is get rid of that terrorist group. The problem is that in all that effort, military effort to get rid of the terrorist group, you

do kill them, but they regenerate and they regenerate and they regenerate just as Hezbollah has for God 45 years almost. Okay. And so what do you then

almost. Okay. And so what do you then push to do? Get rid of all the people.

>> So you think I'll just genocide?

>> I don't want to use those terms because I've written about that. That's a that that has certain very spec. So that's a whole conversation here. But I just want to point out how is it that Israel got

itself into the idea they were going to cleanse expel um large portions of the 2 million out of Gaza. That happened because they got

of Gaza. That happened because they got into stage three of the escalation trap in Gaza. So this isn't just about

in Gaza. So this isn't just about America. So we're only talking about the

America. So we're only talking about the escalation frameworks with respect to this one conflict. really it applies much more broadly. I've developed these

since I taught for the Air Force because I needed to find a way to help our government, our military understand

how the transition from the bombing or the military piece to the outcome. And what's in the middle is the military, the bombs change

politics. They change politics in the

politics. They change politics in the enemy. They change politics for us. For

enemy. They change politics for us. For

us, we don't want to lose. And that's

why we got stuck in a for in two forever wars. Um, and now we may well just get

wars. Um, and now we may well just get right back into another one. Not because

Trump wants to. He's being sucked into it.

>> So, what happens after stage three?

>> After stage three, this is what America has faced in Vietnam. And President

Biden faced this in spades here. When

you try to pull out after you're in stage three and end these ongoing conflicts here, usually it ends poorly for your legacy. And you saw that with

Lyndon Johnson. And you saw that with um

Lyndon Johnson. And you saw that with um President Biden. President Bid actually

President Biden. President Bid actually President Trump is the one who was negotiating with the Taliban to pull out.

>> But President Trump wouldn't leave. Not

leave. He didn't leave before. Who who

did he hand it off to? He handed it off to Biden. Biden pulled out. And what has

to Biden. Biden pulled out. And what has Biden's legacy been? It's been negative ever since. If you look at his opinion

ever since. If you look at his opinion polls, pres President Biden, you will see he was riding high until he withdrew from Afghanistan and he never recovered.

Yes, inflation hurt too. The bigger hit was the Afghanistan problem. And this is where this is why President Trump is really stuck. You see, he's on that

really stuck. You see, he's on that horns of the dilemma. Does he want to accept the short-term price, which is real, or does he want to go and double

down? And then you face the potential

down? And then you face the potential long-term price of becoming LBJ and President Biden.

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>> I have to ask then, you know, you said when you're in the White House, they're very smart people.

>> Yeah, pretty smart. Presumably Trump

knew this stuff or someone around him knew that by the way when you drop bombs these sort of very specific bombs we have now that can hit a hit a very narrow target and take out a leader um

you get into an escalation trap. Surely

he knew this.

>> I believe I believe General Kaine told him almost this this in so many words. I

believe and I don't have the exact evidence for it but we have some inklings of it.

>> What do you think he thought was going to happen? I think he I I've described

to happen? I think he I I've described Trump um as the ultimate chaos kid.

There are people who thrive in chaos.

They feel the best when they're in a chaotic situation. And I think that he

chaotic situation. And I think that he um believes he can navigate the chaos better than anybody else. So what I want to the the answer to the question I was looking for is what did he think was

going to happen? Did he think I'll drop these bombs, Hermione will be out, someone else will come in, then we'll negotiate with that guy and then we'll get a better deal? I think that's not quite I think that's too specific.

People keep looking for that. In my

experience here, it also um is that's too narrow of a way to understand what I think happened here. And again, we're reading quite a bit into very few tea leaves here because this will come out

over time. But um I believe that what

over time. But um I believe that what you're seeing with President Trump is he likes to do what's called mixing it up.

He wants to get the chaos going and then he um he reads the chaos very well and and when it's um a media storm, man, there's very few people that have beaten

him. Just think about that. That's why

him. Just think about that. That's why

he's president twice. He's he's beaten quite a few black belts at this, right?

But this is a different story. So if you take that same MO and you apply it to political violence, now you have these other actors. You have this other set of

other actors. You have this other set of momentum. you have Israel uh playing

momentum. you have Israel uh playing this big role. You have the Iranians playing a big role. You're suddenly uh now have more players that can trap you

in the chaos. And this is I think what has happened. Um now with Venezuela, he

has happened. Um now with Venezuela, he also went through the first stage of the trap. And notice that with Venezuela, he

trap. And notice that with Venezuela, he just said, "Oh yeah, we're just going to forget about developing the oil." No

second stage. Okay. So in in with Venezuela, there's a reason why that has paused. It's because he didn't go to

paused. It's because he didn't go to stage two because the oil company said, "We're not going to die for you to build that oil." So he is basically um he took

that oil." So he is basically um he took out one person, just literally one person. That person's not even dead yet.

person. That person's not even dead yet.

And he's not really developing any of those oil fields in Venezuela. They're

just not being developed.

>> He said he has a good relationship with the Venezuelan government. Now the

>> as long as because he's not doing any the the Venezuelan government, he's leaving them in place. He's basically

declaring victory and moving on.

>> He removed Maduro, kept the others in and it sounds >> and kept the regime.

>> It sounds like that might have somewhat inspired his move to Bomaran because it appears on the surface that Venezuela kind of didn't go too badly. It kind of was a uh political victory.

>> Chaos Kida chaos >> snatched him out of bed with his snatch.

But then he stopped. So this would be the equivalent would be last June. So

last June, okay, he went through stage one and he tried to stop. What made the difference here? It wasn't Trump. It was

difference here? It wasn't Trump. It was

the intel he got from Netanyahu. The

phone call from Netanyahu, which is uh President Trump getting ready. We're

about to assassinate the supreme leader and about 20 of his associate the other leaders here. you decide how you want to

leaders here. you decide how you want to handle this, but we're we're taking off.

And so that is that did not happen with with uh with um uh the Maduro regime. So

just imagine that there was another country that had after Trump took out Maduro decided they were going to keep assassinating u the regime in uh

Venezuela. Now you would be in a

Venezuela. Now you would be in a different story.

>> You made a quite famous prediction, professor. You predicted in 2009 that

professor. You predicted in 2009 that America's era as the world's only superpower was ending.

>> Oh yes, and I think that is true. We

haven't talked about China, but I believe that since Trump has come into office, he's making China number one.

His tariffs have done nothing but um uh help China. Uh China's been on charm

help China. Uh China's been on charm offensive since the tariffs have have been and and they're picking up all the pieces. I was just spent two weeks in

pieces. I was just spent two weeks in China in June while we were bombing um Iran. I said I had to learn how to do

Iran. I said I had to learn how to do social media. I toured Advanced

social media. I toured Advanced Industries in China for two solid weeks.

One of the most amazing visits uh trips I've ever had in my whole career and it was stunning. So Stephen, since co

was stunning. So Stephen, since co almost nobody has gone to uh China. Now

if they have they've gone to Beijing or Shanghai. They haven't gone to Wuhan.

Shanghai. They haven't gone to Wuhan.

They haven't gone to Shenshen. Visited

the BYD uh electric car factories. Um

seeing the robots that are now doing the metallergy and you can't see it very well on the web because China's keeping it to themselves. They don't want to brag about it. They're going they're

motoring ahead. So Wuhan, to give you an

motoring ahead. So Wuhan, to give you an example, Wuhan is kind of like Pittsburgh. It's a bigger version of

Pittsburgh. It's a bigger version of Pittsburgh. It's an old steel area.

Pittsburgh. It's an old steel area.

That's not Wuhan today. Wuhan today is the AI. It's it's developing not just a

the AI. It's it's developing not just a robotic company. They're uplifting 9

robotic company. They're uplifting 9 million people in Wuhan. Their uh

medicine is improved. Their

infrastructure is improved. They have

more construction jobs than ever before because they have to build so much to uplift the whole 9 million people. This

is what Pittsburgh should have been and hasn't been. And I know I'm from Western

hasn't been. And I know I'm from Western Pennsylvania. It's heartbreaking to me

Pennsylvania. It's heartbreaking to me to watch what's happened to Pittsburgh over the last 30 or 40 years. Wuhan,

exactly the same trajectory. An old

steel uh um city is now one of the lead areas here in they have a robotic Silicon Valley there that I visited um and so forth.

>> And why does this matter? Why does it matter if the US are no longer the world's superpower? What what then does

world's superpower? What what then does history tell us is the consequence of that?

>> The consequence is first of all you get enormous tension here uh for violence.

So when you see big hegemonic shifts >> hegemonic >> uh that means when one leader the the world's number one becomes uh replaced

by another bad things happen. This is

what happened how you got the wars between Britain and France when they were fighting theirs wars. This is how you got world war essentially world war I because of the the rise and fall of

Germany versus uh uh Russia versus Britain. So these rising and fall they

Britain. So these rising and fall they make a huge difference. Doesn't always

happen. The one time it was peaceful was when America replaced Britain as number one. So just think about that. But other

one. So just think about that. But other

times have been very tense.

>> So how does China feel that the US are now at war with the Middle East? So,

what's interesting is to get ready for coming on here. I listened to the All-In podcast, and I hope that's okay to talk about somebody else's podcast. I love

that.

>> I think they're brilliant, by the way. I

love it. But what they said just in the most recent is that that Trump's playing a game for China. What they said is China shaking in its boots and that what this is about is uh it's it's kind of

Venezuela plus Iran is all about to cause shei to be shaking in his boots in in April so that um he will somehow make some bigger deal with Trump. I think

this is just wrong. I think that it may be that there's some uh uh you know, China does absolutely buy 90% of Iran's oil. There's no we're not disagreeing

oil. There's no we're not disagreeing with the facts of the matter. It's the

interpretation and the consequences for who's going to be number one down the road. So my assessment here is China uh

road. So my assessment here is China uh is probably thrilled that we're on the verge of getting into another quagmire in the Middle East and that they would

gladly give up. They have about 20% of their GDP that turn energy not GDP 20% of their energy it's a much smaller fraction of their GDP that turns on the

oil issue. uh most of their energy is

oil issue. uh most of their energy is not generated through through oil. And

so I think they would really if they had to give all of the Middle Eastern oil up to suck us in to a another forever war with Iran that would go on for years and

years. Oh my goodness gracious. Because

years. Oh my goodness gracious. Because

they see themselves as growing through Asia and spreading their wings through Asia. And so to get us pinned down in

Asia. And so to get us pinned down in the Middle East with an even bigger problem than we had with Iraq, this is mana from heaven for China. And that's

what I they told that's what I saw when I was there.

>> If I was Putin or if I was running China, based on everything you've said and based on everything I know, I would really want this war to go on for a long time.

>> Oh, for sure.

>> I'd really so I'd really be helping Iran, you know, prolong this thing. And

also because Russia are in their own situation at the moment with Ukraine.

So, it's quite a distraction from whatever Putin's objectives are in Ukraine. No one's really talking about

Ukraine. No one's really talking about Ukraine this week.

>> And it's bad for the Ukrainians because what's happening is by by by the little bit that Putin has gotten himself involved here, there is a chance he set the stage for a deal, which is again

America stops the intel to the Ukrainians, if Russia will stop the intel to Iran. That is much much much to Putin's advantage with Ukraine. So, I

think that you have a situation here, Stephen, where Putin, it's not so much he's he's itching to get in the fight, is he's trying to do it in ways that he gets something out of it in his in his

relations war with Ukraine.

>> Think about that with President Xi. I

don't think the Chinese want to get in the fight. I think, in fact, right now,

the fight. I think, in fact, right now, if I'm if I'm assessing this correctly, they're probably not wanting to get in the way of an enemy who's shooting himself in both feet. So right now,

America's damaging itself a lot more than China could. And if China inserts itself, there's a very good chance then that would help Trump again pull a rabbit out of a hat. I don't think they

want to do that. I think right now you just look at this from we're running out of what's called standoff PGMs. Remember, Secretary Heg said, "Well, yeah, okay, we're running out of standoff PGMs, but we got to do

something from the from the the the bombs that we can drop more over country." Well, that's the problem for a

country." Well, that's the problem for a problem for Taiwan. If we're going to defend Taiwan, we've got to do this with long standoff precision weapons. And we

all everybody who studies this knows that. So, if we're really running low on

that. So, if we're really running low on standoff precision weapons, she's just licking his chops thinking, "My goodness, how much better does this get?"

get?" >> If Trump was listening, probably not the case. I think he just watches CNN and Fox News.

>> Um, but if Trump was listening, what would you say to him?

>> What I would tell him is take the deal.

I would say stop right now and do everything possible to go back to the deal you rejected the day before you started bombing. And what your goal

started bombing. And what your goal should be is to get as much of the 60% enriched uranium out of the country as possible. If uh you could also get the

possible. If uh you could also get the 20% enriched uranium out, that would be good, too. But you're probably not going

good, too. But you're probably not going to get as good a deal. Uh because the supreme leader you were dealing with is gone and you now have a much tougher. So

you might have to accept President Trump a worse deal.

>> Are we just kicking the can down the road here? Because if you're an Iranian,

road here? Because if you're an Iranian, like you've said, you've watched bombs drop. You've you've realized that the

drop. You've you've realized that the reason why you are such a target is because you don't have these nuclear weapons. So is there not an element

weapons. So is there not an element where Iran getting nuclear weapons is um inevitable in some way? So Stephen, this is the myth of 100% security. So we see

this in not just America but in lots of uh conflicts in history where the idea that you don't have 100% security leads you to essentially do things that look

like suicide for fear of death. So so we know that that there is a long-term problem out there. And sometimes a really good solution is to freeze it for

20 years. just freeze it for 20 years.

20 years. just freeze it for 20 years.

And you know what? It's you're right.

You didn't permanently take it off the table. But if you can freeze a problem

table. But if you can freeze a problem for 20 years, that's actually a lot of you might get lucky. You might get something good like the Soviet Union might just fall apart on you, you know,

out of the blue. It might just fall apart on you. And not because you did anything. It's just because something

anything. It's just because something else changed in the world. So the way to think about this, Stephen, is not this idea that we're going to take an action

and have 100% security. This is how big powers lose wars.

Big powers are up against these little countries. And think about how often

countries. And think about how often they lose. We lose to Vietnam. That's

they lose. We lose to Vietnam. That's

how I got into this business in the first place. I wanted to understand

first place. I wanted to understand that. And so this idea of the search for

that. And so this idea of the search for perfect security is often getting us into trouble.

kick a can down. You You're right. It's

only 20 years. I'll take that. That's

better than where we are right now.

Professor Robert Pap of all the things that we've talked about um >> which has been a wonderful conversation by the way >> and very diverse but really focused on this subject of what's going on in the

world at the moment with Iran and Trump and America as decline. What is the thing that we should have talked about that we didn't talk about? The big

thing, well, we're finally getting to it at the end, is the real consequence of what President Trump has done since coming into office. uh the real

consequence of the tariffs, the real consequence of not just uh threatening um uh discussion of Greenland, but but becoming very aggressive with our

European allies on Greenland, being very aggressive to the point of um um a taking out a leader from Venezuela, which is uh in our Western Hemisphere.

So, it's creating what this is really doing is it's threatening America's primacy. So I am a big believer that

primacy. So I am a big believer that America should be the strongest most secure state on the planet. I think that is good for us.

That means that it does make it is valuable to be the top dog to be the number one strongest economic military power. But in order to do that you have

power. But in order to do that you have to be the world's number one economy for real. And with $40 trillion in debt, um

real. And with $40 trillion in debt, um with uh us pushing away our trading partners, with us uh engaging in hostile

actions here which are scaring the rest of the world to further drift away from us and maybe not side with China, but be neutral. Oh my goodness gracious. And

neutral. Oh my goodness gracious. And

and again, as I said before, China is motoring ahead on the AI revolution.

We're talking AI, but are we really doing Wuhan? Are we up to Wuhan? I think

doing Wuhan? Are we up to Wuhan? I think

it would be interesting for uh for uh folks to go to Wuhan um and actually visit uh or go to Senchan uh and visit

um or go to Hang Cho and visit and see where uh Alibaba is and see uh that it's it's not just one company here. It's not

just deep seek that there's clusters that are being built that are uplifting 10 million people at a swath. And my

goodness, why aren't we doing that in America? We certainly need that in the

America? We certainly need that in the restaurant belt.

>> We're too distracted.

>> We're too distracted, which is what I'm trying to say is to China's advantage.

And I think this is the real long-term price, which is are we actually eroding our position as the world's number one?

And I think our primacy is in is in danger.

>> Professor Robert Pap, we have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest, not knowing who they're leaving it for. Ah,

it for. Ah, >> the question left for you is what is the prediction you have for the future that most people do not want to hear?

>> Well, this is going to lead into the conversation. So, I have a book coming

conversation. So, I have a book coming out in September called Our own Worst Enemies. As bad as all this problem is,

Enemies. As bad as all this problem is, Stephen, as bad as it is, I have spent the last several years focusing on what's happening with political violence

in the United States and its normalization.

And the most the biggest danger that we face, even bigger than Iran and all the problems we've just talked about, is the normalization of political violence in

our own country. And by political violence, you mean >> I'm I'm talking about in the last 10 years, we have seen a surge of violent

riots. We have seen a surge of political

riots. We have seen a surge of political assassinations that we haven't seen since the 1960s. On

top of that, we've just had Operation Midway Blitz in my city, Chicago. That

is the surge of militarized um enforce immigration enforcement. Oh,

immigration enforcement. Oh, >> which surged ice which surged into neighborhoods over over almost 300 times.

>> Crazy.

>> Not just a small. And then what happened after they left um uh Chicago is they did even more of that in Minneapolis. So

these this trajectory Stephen that we're on where we are seeing the incredible normalization of political violence and it's happening on both the right and the left. It's not

I'm not trying to make moral equivalence but it is h and the book will explain this is probably the greatest danger that we face because if we are our own

worst enemies. Think of what that means

worst enemies. Think of what that means for us being that great power that that is so important for us and the great future we want for our families and our

our our communities here. We are in danger of becoming our own worst enemies. Not for a day, not for a month,

enemies. Not for a day, not for a month, but for years.

>> Professor, thank you so much. Um, if

anyone wants to go and read more about many of the things we've talked about today, where do they go? Substack. I'll

link below.

>> I would I would go you can read my books on it. You can get them from Amazon. I

on it. You can get them from Amazon. I

would go to Substack. And then, and that's the escalation trap. Um, and I would also just be aware that there will be uh more discussion of political violence. So, it's not just political

violence. So, it's not just political violence abroad and it's not just political violence at home. It is both happening at the same time.

>> Professor, thank you so much.

>> Thank you very much. Really, really

enjoyed it. Thank you.

>> Thank you so much. That was fantastic.

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