The Iran War Has No Exit — ft. Ian Bremmer | Prof G Conversations

I believe that Trump understands that the midterms are lost. I think he knows that he can't turn the economy around.

That's why he's suddenly pivoting towards patience on Iran. That's why he said, "I'm surprised oil prices are so low. I thought they could be $250, $300.

low. I thought they could be $250, $300.

They're under 100." Um, I think he knows that that he's in too deep. And so the midterms are lost.

Ian, where does this podcast find you?

Hey, Scott, I am back in my office in New York City. Sunny, springike New York City. Thank God we need something.

City. Thank God we need something.

Oh, that's nice. Um, so let's bust right into it. Uh, abroad, the the war in Iran

into it. Uh, abroad, the the war in Iran drags on with no end in sight. Blockades

were exchanged. Uh, the state of Hormuz is still effectively closed and talks keep collapsing. At home, we had another

keep collapsing. At home, we had another incident of political violence earlier this week, the attempted assassination of the president at the White House Correspondents Center. Ian, in your in

Correspondents Center. Ian, in your in your view, what's the state of play in geopolitics right now, particularly in Iran? Uh, well, I the biggest thing that

Iran? Uh, well, I the biggest thing that happened today is the Emiratis, ally of the United States, unilaterally withdrew from OPEC, an organization the Americans

don't like, uh, and is now going to be weaker, more fragmented, more led by Saudi Arabia. uh uh that is part of what

Saudi Arabia. uh uh that is part of what is a growing divide uh between an Emirati block and a Saudi block on security, on economics and technology uh

in the Gulf and definitely the Iran war has accelerated that pretty dramatically. But take a quick step

dramatically. But take a quick step back. The other big news this week out

back. The other big news this week out of Iran is that the German chancellor publicly said the United States is being

humiliated. The French president

humiliated. The French president publicly said that the US president um the Russian president, the Chinese uh president are all directly against

Europe uh acting together against Europe. Those are those are things that

Europe. Those are those are things that at best you usually hear with inside voices. you don't hear them saying

voices. you don't hear them saying publicly. So I mean this this unwinding

publicly. So I mean this this unwinding um of US alliances uh this anger and fragmentation geopolitically both in the

region and more broadly is clearly becoming more front and center. Um and

you know there's there are questions over how how much this is in America's advantage over the short the medium um and the long term. But but the anger the

the feelings are raw and and the view that these institutions these alliances are not serving um the purpose of the US or the allies those things are growing

and becoming much much more direct and and the pain that comes from an Iran war that we're now in the third month of no end in sight as you said the economic

consequences are massive uh as well as the geopolitical uh is is really leading to a lot of uh a lot of anger and hostility and mistrust on the global

stage. So maybe that's the way I would

stage. So maybe that's the way I would frame it just to start.

So I want to bifurcate it into what I think is a really interesting story and I'm I'm interested to get your take and that is the UAE deciding to divest or leave OPEC and then obviously US allies

be adding more stride in terms of their criticism of the US. Why? Why would the UAE see it to their advantage to alienate

other Gulf partners in OPEC? Weaken

OPEC? What what is the mechanization and the sort of the industrial logic behind the UAE coming to the decision that they're going to leave OPEC?

So, Scott, there are lots of reasons.

It's hard for me to tell you which ones are the most important, but they all move in this direction. one is that um Dubai

uh which has been like so much of the model of of future growth like we're the Switzerland of the Middle East and we're attracting all these expats and everything is safe and stable and you've

been there I've been there many times right um that that looks a lot more vulnerable uh when suddenly uh the Iranians are able to shut down the

straight and use their missiles to strike directly your five-star hotels, your airport and the rest. And so, you know, suddenly you see Abu Dhabi um the

the uh capital of the UAE uh willing to focus much more on what they see as in their national interests

right now. Um and and that is we're

right now. Um and and that is we're aligned with Israel. We're aligned with the United States. Those are the countries that are coming to our aid,

not the Saudis. um we are uh going to sell as much oil as humanly possible in the near term as soon as the straight is opened at higher rates. We're not going

to align with voluntary restrictions on oil export because we can make money on that now. But long-term we've got to

that now. But long-term we've got to diversify away from oil. We've got to focus on tech investments. We've got to focus on postcarbon energy. That's the

win for us. Then then you have the fact that their view on Iran and this war is completely different from Saudi Arabia.

The Emiratis really want the war to continue. Uh they certainly don't want

continue. Uh they certainly don't want to see this Islamic Republic stay in place and they don't want this regime to

have the military, the ballistic missile capabilities, the proxy support um or uh potentially the nuclear capabilities. In

that regard, if the war were over today, in 6 months, in 12 months, I could see the UAE joining with Israel in so-called mowing the grass, which you and I and

Dan Senior talked about a few weeks ago when we last had a public conversation.

Um, the Saudis on the other hand, their principal alliance outside of the US is with Pakistan, a nuclear power. Um, and

they are increasingly aligned with Egypt, with Turkey, uh, but also are thinking long term about how to, uh,

make a deal with a postwar Iran to ensure their own security. They don't

need to use the strait. They don't have to worry as much about Iran disrupting it or tolling it because they can get 7 million barrels a day through the Red

Sea from their export terminal in Yanboo, the East West pipeline that they have. They're focused much more on a 35

have. They're focused much more on a 35 million strong population that they are they want to make sure has the ability and the money to develop, not an expat

heavy 90% population that the UAE has.

Um and so um this war again there have been fights between NBS and MBZ that predate this war. We saw that play out in Yemen. We saw that play out in Sudan.

in Yemen. We saw that play out in Sudan.

Uh we've seen that play out in financial decisionmaking. Um but it has been

decisionmaking. Um but it has been accelerated and intensified by the war and the very divergent responses to the

war geopolitically, militarily and economically by these two very successful countries with very different models. And I think that's what has led

models. And I think that's what has led to the UAE to make this announcement. An

announcement that's made when the straight is closed. So it doesn't have any approximate economic impact tomorrow, but it will. Uh it would not

surprise me if the Emiratis uh leave the Organization of Islamic Countries, the OIC. Um I have heard from both the

OIC. Um I have heard from both the Emiratis and the Saudis and others in the Gulf, that they think the Gulf Cooperation Council, the GCC, which is

the overarching regional framework, however loose, is not fit for purpose uh anymore. So that could also fall apart.

anymore. So that could also fall apart.

It's a it's a it's becoming a Gzero Middle East.

um in that regard.

Yeah. One of the stats that just blew me away is that more projectiles have been shot at the UAE from Iran than Israel. I

mean, it appears that Iran has decided that the UAE is, you know, absolutely not their ally.

And it's a lot it's a lot closer. It's a

lot easier to hit if you're Iran, right?

You need longer range missiles to hit Israel, which they don't have many of.

And and Israel much hardened targets.

Do you think this brings one or the other? or the UAE or Saudi closer to

other? or the UAE or Saudi closer to Israel and the US and alienates the other. I mean, I see this as a pretty

other. I mean, I see this as a pretty big deal. One, I hate cartels, so I'd

big deal. One, I hate cartels, so I'd like to think over time this lowers the price of oil for everybody, but this does feel geopolitically like a pretty big shift in the chessboard.

I don't like cartels. I don't like monopolies, uh, whether they're US platforms, uh, or they're global commodity unions. Um uh and and in that

commodity unions. Um uh and and in that regard uh the break up of OPEC will uh lead to more competition and lower prices over time. I believe that is true

and that certainly redounds to America's overall interests. Um now the UAE and

overall interests. Um now the UAE and Saudi Arabia are both allies of the United States. Um militarily they both

United States. Um militarily they both rely on the US for intelligence to a very great degree. Now, Saudi Arabia, their missile program is provided by

China, and that is important. Uh, it's

also because the Americans weren't about to sell tomahawks to the Saudis. Uh

longer term, I see Saudi Arabia uh becoming more aligned with China in terms of who's going to buy their oil export. And Saudi sees themselves as the

export. And Saudi sees themselves as the the big producer of the last inexpensive barrels over decades that will still be needed in a global economy that's

transitioning but still very much reliant in part on oil and gas. Um, I

also think that the Saudis will be more enticed to buy Chinese technology, including AI, because it will be less expensive for their own population, than

the Emiratis, uh, who will want to be more aligned with the US military industrial technological complex. So,

for now, both of these countries are still aligned pretty strongly with the United States overall militarily. Over

time, I expect that that will become more true for the Amiradis uh and it will become less true for the Saudis. There's also the kleptocracy

Saudis. There's also the kleptocracy piece, the fact that so many billions of dollars um are trading hands uh from the Gulf uh to the Trump family and the

Trump inner circle. There's also massive investments made into the United States.

I think that the Saudis, even though they've promised a trillion dollars and Trump went there at the beginning of the term and he made that huge announcement of how much the Saudis were going to

give them, I think the Saudis are much more likely to downgrade how much money they'll put in the US and they will they will repprioritize

domestic investment for their own sovereign wealth funds. Um while the Emiratis uh I I think are going to be doing uh

much more globally um and in that regard they will be seen as deeper pockets and more attractive partners for a lot of western multinationals. That's uh so

western multinationals. That's uh so these things are again I I think geopolitically there are lots of consequences that will be playing out for a very long time on the back of this

war but the most immediate and consequential is probably this dynamic which we are seeing play out with the headline of the Amiradis leaving OPEC.

So Iran has offered to reopen Hormuz the straight of Hormuz if the US lifts its naval blockade and ends the war. um

setting aside or kicking the can down the road for nuclear talks. Rubio,

Secretary Rubio called it unacceptable.

Uh Trump canled the Islamabad follow-up talks. Um a ceasefire technically

talks. Um a ceasefire technically technically is doing a lot of work here.

Holds, but both sides keep probing.

Qatar is warning of a frozen conflict.

Who do you think has more leverage right now? Uh Washington or Thrron? Uh

now? Uh Washington or Thrron? Uh

the Americans say they have more leverage. Um the fact that um the

leverage. Um the fact that um the Germans uh spoke the way they did implies they think the Iranians have more leverage which is not helpful. Uh I

I will say the Iranians have an information advantage. Uh they have an

information advantage. Uh they have an asymmetry here, right? Trump for a very long time has talked about the fact that you you never know what Trump is going to do is an advantage, right? Like he

could do crazy and so people have to be careful with him. Well, uh, we actually know less about the Iranian leadership, who is willing and capable of ultimately

implementing a decision, how decentralized the decision-making process is, and we don't have good information on who's saying what to whom, where in the United States, we've got polls, we've got impact in the

markets, uh, we've got all sorts of people inside the Trump administration that are talking to the media. So, it is easier for the Iranians to assess that

Trump wants a ceasefire, that he's not he's looking for an offramp, that that, you know, he's promising the American people that this war will be over soon.

I mean, all these things, it's very hard for the Americans to make that assessment of the Iranians today. Now,

America, of course, is vastly more powerful than Iran. And so in principle that should give the Americans a lot more leverage. And yet the Iranians are

more leverage. And yet the Iranians are showing that they are willing and capable of taking a lot more pain. 150

of their leaders have been assassinated.

No American leaders have been assassinated. No Israeli leaders have

assassinated. No Israeli leaders have been assassinated. So the Iranians are

been assassinated. So the Iranians are taking a lot more damage. They've got,

you know, over a million people displaced. They've got well over a

displaced. They've got well over a thousand dead. Americans 13. So I mean

thousand dead. Americans 13. So I mean the Iranians are clearly showing that they are capable of tolerating a lot more pain than the Americans had

expected. They're also showing that

expected. They're also showing that their military capacity at this point is much greater than the military planners in the US believed. And here here Scott, I'm not talking about what Trump thought

having ignored what a lot of his military planners were telling him. I'm

actually talking about the military planners. They are very surprised.

planners. They are very surprised.

Sentcom is very surprised that in the third month of this war that the Iranians still have over 50% of their ballistic missile capacity

intact. They're very surprised that

intact. They're very surprised that after strikes um on uh la on uh launchpads that in some cases the Iranians were able to dig them out and

relaunch within 24 hours. They're very

surprised by that. They're surprised by the hypersonics um that were able to get through American defenses um in the Sultan air

base in Riad and destroy American advanced aircraft. They're surprised um

advanced aircraft. They're surprised um by the range that the Iranian missiles were able to show um to launch a small

attack on the base of Diego Garcia. So

there there has been more capability shown militarily on the part of the Iranians despite all this damage. The

the long and the short of it, Scott, is that it's hard to say who has more leverage here, but it is clear that

President Trump is looking for an offramp. It is clear that President

offramp. It is clear that President Trump is not um in any way interested in

a shortterm return to war fighting and it's not as clear uh what the Iranian incentives are in this environment.

So I'll put forward a thesis and way to respond to it. It feels like the president has really backed himself into a corner that they can't just leave.

They could be accused. I love I think it was you use this term of having a glass jaw. It doesn't matter how big and scary

jaw. It doesn't matter how big and scary you are. If you get punched once and

you are. If you get punched once and you're down and you're out. I don't

think they can politically leave if the straight of Hormuz is not open. I I I don't think it can be we broke it. It's

up to the rest of the world to fix it.

At the same time, it feels like every day that the war goes on, Iran can claim credit for surviving and that whether it's the Taliban, the Vietkong

or now the IRGC, they win by just surviving it. It feels as if one, do you

surviving it. It feels as if one, do you agree with that? And two, what is the likelihood that the US is able to enforce free passage of the Strait of

Hormuz and then leave, you know, kind of declare victory and leave with what is arguably a weakened Iran in terms of its military capacity, but then do they just leave the Gulf States more vulnerable?

It it it definitely feels as if he's painted himself into a corner here. Your

thoughts?

Yeah, I I think you've framed it extremely appropriately. right on the

extremely appropriately. right on the money. Uh Scott, this is the question

money. Uh Scott, this is the question I'm exercising myself with and my analysts at our firm every day. Um I I

think you're right that Trump feels like he cannot just cut and run here, even though that is clearly the right thing for America's national interests. The

longer this war goes on, the more damage, the more costly. But Trump is unprepared to declare victory even though he has tried to. I mean he how

many times has he said ah the strait is the European problem. It's the Asian problem. They're got they have to deal

problem. They're got they have to deal with it. He has said this. He has set

with it. He has said this. He has set himself up to declare victory and leave.

But he's not willing to do it because he knows it just looks horrible. It knows

it feels like too much of a loss even for Trump who is one of the most incredibly shameless uh at at saying things that just aren't

so and willing them to be the truth for himself and his supporters even he does not believe that this is plausible and credible. And and yet we're in an

credible. And and yet we're in an environment where the baseline outcome, even if he were to declare victory and leave today, the baseline outcome is

worse than the deal that was on offer to Jared and Witkoff by the Iranians at the before the war started. It is um it is a

a worse outcome than if Trump had not left the Iranian nuclear deal, the JCPOA at the beginning of his administration.

And it becomes a worse outcome for every day that he chooses to continue with this blockade. The costs are so much

this blockade. The costs are so much greater than the benefits of continuing with this fight. And he's chasing he's

chasing the dragon, right? I mean, he needs a bigger hit and a bigger hit every moment. Um, and and he's becoming

every moment. Um, and and he's becoming Tupot committed, and you and I both know, we've seen, you know, people uh with gambling addiction problems, um,

they they end up getting themselves in bigger and bigger holes. So, this I I think that he should declare victory and leave. what he seems to believe right

leave. what he seems to believe right now and what I've been hearing from the White House is um and this this reflects him saying to the public you need to be more patient after he told the public that we're going to be done in two to

three weeks max the war will be over that has proven not to be the case he told the G7 allies a few days just a couple more days and at the beginning of the war and the Iranians are going to uh

surrender um you know unconditionally that that turned out obviously to be very very far from the case he's now saying if we just give it another month

or two privately, um then the Iranians will be under such economic pressure because of the blockade, which isn't biting yet and isn't biting in part because he

suspended the sanctions on Iran at the beginning of the war so he could keep the oil prices low. Turned out not to be such a foresightful move. um that then

they will be forced to come to the table and negotiate more seriously uh with the Americans and give him the nuclear win that he is seeking. Um and

that that is a theory of the case that is plausible. It will cause a far far

is plausible. It will cause a far far greater economic damage to the US and globally to the American consumers, American voters. But that also relies on

American voters. But that also relies on the idea that the Iranians are negotiating in part in good faith and on

the basis of a cleareyed view of their national interest and not out of revenge or vindictiveness or ideology and

theocracy. Um and and that there are a

theocracy. Um and and that there are a suitably unitary actor to implement what the negotiators agree with and and all of those things are open to question.

So, for all of those reasons, I I think that Trump is only getting himself in deeper and deeper trouble here. So,

you're right. He painted himself into a corner, but like that doesn't mean digging yourself into a hole after you're painted in the corner, right? I

mean, it's lo at some point logic tells you, okay, you're going to get some paint on your shoes. Walk out of there.

Walk out of there. Do you think they can do you think America can feasibly leave without ensuring free flow or free navigation to the straight of Hormuse?

Of course. Of course they can. Um the

question is what are the implications of that? Now, um I think that were the

that? Now, um I think that were the Americans to do that, um the Iranians, um if they were to charge prohibitive

tolls and no one signs up to it, only very small numbers of countries, then oil prices are still high, the Americans could easily turn back to a blockade at

any moment. So, that option remains

any moment. So, that option remains there for the United States. Number one,

turn the money off for the Iranians. Um,

number two, you've got the option of what Trump intimated by saying it's the problem of the other countries that they end up doing deals with the Iranians.

Um, and you can call it a toll or you can call it reconstruction money. um you

can have, you know, sanctions uh suspended again off of Iran and then a whole bunch of the oils actually getting out and then the Europeans may send some

destroyers and other ships to help ensure the navigation and the insurance comes back online and the the the ships become crude. Um and and then prices

become crude. Um and and then prices come down again. Um, and the US economy has taken comparatively less of a hit than most of the other economies in the

world. Now, is this embarrassing for

world. Now, is this embarrassing for Trump because you still have the same Iranian regime in place? Well, yes, but I I don't see any strategy to remove the Iranian regime at this point. It's not

like Trump is still talking about rescuing the Iranian people. the

Iranians would still have their nuclear capabilities, but Trump has said now on a few occasions that if they try to get those at those nuclear capabilities, we've got satellites on them. We can

blow them up at that point. You and I looking at this, Scott, it's it should be plainly obvious to everyone, irrespective of what Trump admits to

that there's no win here for the Americans. Um, so the question is, how

Americans. Um, so the question is, how are you going to reduce your losses in ways that allow everyone to move

forward? And and I I do think the best

forward? And and I I do think the best the least worst scenario at this point is to conclude the war and and open the

straight as soon as humanly possible.

And I I would have argued that 6 weeks ago easily. It would have been much

ago easily. It would have been much better than now. I I mean I I I don't see what's been gained in the last 6 weeks other than far far more economic

damage.

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So let's keep moving around the globe.

Um, I get mixed reporting, mixed messages about the war in Ukraine. I see that the oil

in Ukraine. I see that the oil infrastructure in Russia is being damaged and that Ukrainian drones and technology are increasing or ramping

up uh their attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and registering a lot of success. At the same time, I see I other

success. At the same time, I see I other reports that Russia's industrial machine is just overwhelming Ukraine with more and more drones. What? Give me what you think the state of play is in that

conflict.

For the last 3 months, uh Ukraine has taken back a small amount of territory.

Uh and that is because the drone capabilities and the unmanned ground vehicle capabilities

are are increasingly changing um the advantage on the front line, if not in favor of Ukraine, at

least no longer in favor of the more highly manned Russia. Uh Russia benefits from the war. uh they're selling a lot

more oil, gas, fertilizer, commodities at higher prices.

Uh some sanctions have been suspended by the US. Furthermore, the Ukrainians are

the US. Furthermore, the Ukrainians are having a harder time getting access to some of the weapons that the Europeans want to buy for them because they are in

short supply and necessary now for the Iran war, American weapons. So um there is a uh tactical advantage to the

Russians that come from the Iran war, but the war itself between Russia and Ukraine has at best for Russia shifted

to a stalemate. Where the Russians are showing more advantage is that they now are manufacturing more ballistic missiles. Their drone capabilities are

missiles. Their drone capabilities are not what the Ukrainians are, but they're high. And they're now launching a lot

high. And they're now launching a lot more of those record level rates and some days more than we've seen at any point in the four years of the war against Ukrainian cities. And the

Ukrainians are running low on interceptors.

Um, not not on the lower tech uh drone responses, but interceptors for ballistic missiles, having a harder time defending their cities. So you could imagine a situation where the Ukrainians

end up taking more land back, but the Ukrainians also take more casualties, civilian casualties in cities, and their own critical infrastructure becomes more

damaged, their economy gets more hurt.

still um I I guess your big takeaways here and this shouldn't surprise you. Uh

number one, zero incentive of Putin to negotiate a ceasefire in the near future.

And number two, um zero slowdown at this point of the Ukrainians to continue to defend themselves because they no longer need quite as many troops on the front line. And that's been the biggest

line. And that's been the biggest vulnerability is that they've had harder time raising reserves in a Ukrainian democracy um than the Russians are. They can send

North Koreans, they can send, you know, mercenaries, they can they can send convicts, all this kind of thing. The

Ukrainians have a disadvantage there with a smaller population. That's

becoming more balanced.

And I mean what do you see any resol do you see any resolution here? Do what do you think

resolution here? Do what do you think looking 12 months in? I mean we're now several years into this war. Does either

side have an incentive to figure this out right now or to come to some sort of resolution?

Doesn't look that way. Uh you know you know that Trump uh his his top priority foreign policy when he became president was to end the war. His repeated quote of 24 hours it'll be over. Um he's

failed at that and he's admitted that he's failed at that. He's frustrated

about it. He blames the Ukrainians at least as much as the Russians, which is not analytically sound. Uh but it does express his frustration that he doesn't have the leverage to muscle around Putin

in the way that he does with Zalinski.

So that irritates him. Um the Europeans are all in supporting Ukraine and they're spending a lot more money uh on their own defense. Certainly the Germans

are, the Poles are, the frontline states are, they're also now spending all the money for Ukrainian defense. American

taxpayers are no longer spending anything on Ukraine. So this is 100% the Europeans and that that's what really I

think you know has has so antagonized when the Europeans are are doing all of the burden on for Ukraine in defending a

democracy uh that the Americans wanted to invite to join NATO. It was Condandy Rice and Bush that pushed that. It

wasn't the Europeans first and foremost.

So the Americans are the ones doing the Europeans are now the ones doing all of the lifting for Ukraine to help the Ukrainians and then the Americans decide to engage in a war in Iran that is going

very badly. They didn't tell the

very badly. They didn't tell the Europeans about it in advance and then the Europeans take more economic damage from the war and then Trump calls them

cowards when they don't stand up and join him. I I mean the the level of

join him. I I mean the the level of anger among European leaders right now towards the United States is

unprecedented in my lifetime. I have

never seen anything like it. And and it it and that's even before we talk about the trade hostilities. It's before we talk about Greenland. Uh it's before we talk about Trump's recent flirtation

with Argentina and the Faullands. I mean

all of that stuff. I can give you so many more, you know, sort of uh c count so many more uh data points on this, but the the Russia and the Iran wars and the

American response to that as the Europeans do feel like they're they're absolutely stepping up. They're spending

money like they never have before on defense and they they should have for decades, but they're also doing all of the lifting on Ukraine. And Trump's

like, "Okay, but what are you doing for me on Iran?" Um it's it's extraordinary.

So trying to find a brief moment of sunlight here. Uh thoughts on Victor

sunlight here. Uh thoughts on Victor Orban's defeat.

Great one. Absolutely. Um and here's one that Trump should have been in favor of.

I mean, here's you've got a a new leader who wants to drain the swamp. He's from

the populist right. Um he believes in strong borders. He really opposes all

strong borders. He really opposes all the migration coming in. Um he wants um

a a strong transatlantic alliance uh that's capable of defending itself against Russia and against the Chinese, principal adversaries of the United

States. He defeats Orban

States. He defeats Orban who has wildly redistricted um their political system and controls

the media and has you know enormous amounts offormational advantage. Despite

all of that, he was able to secure a constitutional majority. This should

constitutional majority. This should have been a win for a conservative, nationalist, America first president.

And yet Trump wanted Orban. Orban supporting the

wanted Orban. Orban supporting the Chinese, supporting the Russians, wildly kleptocratic, deeply anti-democratic.

the the swamp incarnate, but liked Trump and came to CPAC and said all the right things and flattered him

and ultimately what matters what MAGA is unfortunately is what Trump says it is and what appeals to him before it helps the country and that that's that's the

part that's going to lead him to lose the midterms in such a spectacular way.

Um, and and it really plays out most clearly in Hungary. Most clearly in Hungary. And it's why Georgia Maloney,

Hungary. And it's why Georgia Maloney, who was the only European leader that came to be there with Trump for his second inauguration, has now broken

decisively from Trump on the Iran war and on other issues. It's why he's losing support from the far right in

France um and Le Pen um and Bardella and others. I mean, it's kind of

others. I mean, it's kind of extraordinary that the populist right in Europe um would not be proTrump and pro

MAGA. And it's because Trump and MAGA

MAGA. And it's because Trump and MAGA are no longer reflecting the populist right. They're they're starting wars.

right. They're they're starting wars.

They're expanding the swamp. um they're

not doing precisely what the people that voted for them really wanted them to do.

So let's keep heading east. Uh thoughts

on the Trump she summit? What's your

read on China US relations right now especially given the war?

Xihinping should in the near term he's taking it pretty hard um from this war. Uh his

economy is I mean they say it's 5% growth. In reality economic experts

growth. In reality economic experts believe it's more like two to three.

There's high unemployment uh particularly among the youth. There's

enormous amounts of bad corporate debt.

And the Chinese response has been very cautious and incremental. So this is not a time when the Chinese want to see reduced demand for their manufactured exports. The one part of their economy

exports. The one part of their economy that has been outperforming. Um but now you've got people around the world that won't be able to buy as much, can't afford as much from the Chinese. Uh

China has big stock piles of oil and of commodities, but still uh all of this disruption from the strait is costing them. They need the plastics, they need

them. They need the plastics, they need the polymers. Um and they're not getting

the polymers. Um and they're not getting them. And when they are, it's at very

them. And when they are, it's at very expensive prices. So they really want

expensive prices. So they really want this war to be over. But but Scott, the Chinese are also the one country in the world that has made the long-term

strategic investments at scale in moving past oil and gas and in electrifying their economy uh and in having the solar

and nuclear and wind at scale getting cheaper and the batteries and the rare earths and the critical minerals that are powering them. So long-term, the

more this war goes on and tells everybody the future is not oil and gas, which the Amiradis clearly understand today, but the big beneficiaries are not the Amiradis. The big long-term

the Amiradis. The big long-term beneficiaries are the Chinese. So they

are extremely well positioned despite all their domestic challenges on the back of this Iran war. And the worse the war gets, the longer the war goes on,

the the more the long-term Chinese bet looks like the most intelligent bet they could make. Now, in the context of all

could make. Now, in the context of all of that, China has said, "We want peace.

We want this over." They've engaged with Pakistan, but they're not taking the lead um in negotiations. They don't want responsibility for that. They don't

expect it will go well and they don't want to be responsible for it not going well or perceived to be attached to a failure. Having said that, um they are

failure. Having said that, um they are proceeding allin with this um now delayed summit in uh just a few weeks um

in Beijing which Trump appears to be willing to continue with despite the ongoing blockade. And I do think that

ongoing blockade. And I do think that even if um the blockade is in place, as long as the ceasefire holds, I think Trump still wants to go. Now, I think

what Xiinping is going to do, he's going to welcome Trump like no American president has ever been welcomed.

There'll be extraordinary military parade and robotic display and drone display and a huge group of American CEOs and all the corporates and all the

top leadership from China will show up and they'll say what an amazing president that Trump is. Um, and then when Xiinping meets Trump directly, he's like, I know you want to be the best dealmaker and you've ended all these

wars and the biggest deal you could possibly do is we can create peace in Taiwan. And if you were just to say,

Taiwan. And if you were just to say, sir, that um you know, you do not support Taiwanese independence, here are all the things that we can do for you.

Here's the money that we can spend. And

this time it won't just be Ivanka's handbags that we're giving you licenses for. It's going to be big big purchases

for. It's going to be big big purchases of American goods and a whole bunch of stuff for the family, too. I I think that Xihinping

um would be der derelict in his duty as head of the communist party as chairman if he did not try that with Trump because we know that Trump does not care much about Taiwan. He does not care

about a territory thousands of miles away from America. He wants to be seen as a dealmaker and his own advisers who are much much more hawkish on China will

will readily admit that they have no idea what Trump would do in a room alone with Chi if he's given an offer like that. Now, will Trump accept it? What

that. Now, will Trump accept it? What

will he say? How? I don't know. But I do know that Trump understands that China has leverage. They're willing to use it.

has leverage. They're willing to use it.

He shows a lot of respect, even difference to Xihinping. talks about a G2 between the Americans and the Chinese. He would never afford any

Chinese. He would never afford any American ally ally that kind of positioning and brand power and uh and he really wants this summit to happen.

So um I certainly don't think there's going to be a fight. I I think the question is whether or not uh Trump is inclined to give away the store for things that he considers personally important.

So let's keep uh going on our world uh world tour right now. Another topic that has fallen somewhat behind the news cycle is Cuba.

Do you think what do you think is going on there?

What do you think is the likelihood that we try and pull a Venezuela on uh you know that's the best case scenario? Pull a Venezuela or worse an

scenario? Pull a Venezuela or worse an Iran on Cuba. What do you think is going on there? And what do you think is the

on there? And what do you think is the likelihood we take military action against Cuba?

It's not an Iranian type scenario. Uh I

mean the Cubans don't have that capacity. They don't have the resources,

capacity. They don't have the resources, right? I mean, so I and Marco Rubio, I

right? I mean, so I and Marco Rubio, I think, has who who is really running point on this uh decision-making process as opposed to Iran, which has been where

Trump has been the decider. Um I think readily admits that there is no military solution here. So the question is how

solution here. So the question is how really the question is not whether whether or not Cuba is going to be Venezuela, but rather how small of a

deal uh is acceptable um that can be announced as a breakthrough because the Cubans are getting hit hard economically. The the blockade really

economically. The the blockade really matters. They're not getting the energy

matters. They're not getting the energy from Venezuela or from Mexico.

um rolling blackouts, you know, I mean, sanitation's not getting picked up, the buses aren't running, and people don't know when they're going to have electricity. I mean, it's it's it's

electricity. I mean, it's it's it's really this is incredibly hard for the Cuban population. Uh and they're getting

Cuban population. Uh and they're getting angry and uh they're getting angry in part with the Cuban government. So, I

think that the Cuban government is highly incented to see if they can do something with and for Trump. And so the question is if it's basically the same government, if it's still the Castros,

because there there really ain't nobody else right now, at least no one in the country. Um, and and they're willing to

country. Um, and and they're willing to open the Cuban economy to American investment big time in terms of tourism

and real estate development and the rest. They don't have much in terms of

rest. They don't have much in terms of commodities. Some a, but nothing that

commodities. Some a, but nothing that really moves the needle. If they were willing to do that with a similar government, does Trump announce that as a huge win? I because it's kind of it's

it's you can call that Venezuela light or you can call it Obama plus because Obama essentially was trying that. He

just didn't get he didn't get much from the Cuban government. Ultimately, they

were slow rolling it. They weren't sure it was real and they thought they had time and they thought the opportunity would always be there and they they failed. They botched it. Um, here it's

failed. They botched it. Um, here it's very clear that the urgency is there for the Cubans. Um, I don't think there's

the Cubans. Um, I don't think there's that much at stake other than for Cubans living in Cuba, Cubans living in Miami, Marco Rubio. This is not going to have

Marco Rubio. This is not going to have the same national impact um that Venezuela has or Iran has, but it it is set up to be at least a significant

foreign policy win at some point for Trump. I just don't think it's going to

Trump. I just don't think it's going to be massive. Yeah, there's no I don't

be massive. Yeah, there's no I don't know. There's no minerals, no economic

know. There's no minerals, no economic prize. 13 presidents have tried to thaw

prize. 13 presidents have tried to thaw relations or do something and have it failed. I this is a

failed. I this is a an unusual analogy, but about 20 years ago, I raised a bunch of money uh to go become the largest shareholder in Gateway Computer, which I realize is a

really Gateway. Yeah. And I I just want to

Gateway. Yeah. And I I just want to acknowledge that's a pretty weak flex.

And I met with the board and said,"I want this. I want this. I want this many

want this. I want this. I want this many board seats or I'm going hostile." And I I can't remember if it was Ted waiter or one of the guys on the board said, "Scott, why don't you just start buying stock and we'd love to have you on the board." It was like, "What? You don't

board." It was like, "What? You don't

you don't need to come in guns blazing.

Wouldn't wouldn't the right strategy with Cuba be to show up with energy and humanitarian aid and do a deal to open McDonald's and Chipotles and just sort

of, in other words, go the other way to use the carrot, not the stick here?"

Well, I I think that that is I mean the stick is presently being used to get to the carrot because the Cuban government has historically shown that they are very reluctant to allow the Americans to

make those investments because they worry that's a slippery slope to eventually the end of the Communist Party, the end of their control. Right?

So the I do think that there is a utility in in having some coercive diplomacy if the intention is to open an

economy that otherwise they refused to open. There has to be more of a stick

open. There has to be more of a stick than what the Obama administration was itself trying to accomplish. Um because

the Obama administration had sticks too.

They had like, you know, the the continued sanctions on the Cubans, but that by itself was inadequate because Cuba could deal with that hardship over many decades. The hardship is so much

many decades. The hardship is so much worse now. Now, has Trump overdone it in

worse now. Now, has Trump overdone it in terms of the damage that the Cuban uh population is living with and under? You

could make that argument. You could also argue if ultimately this leads to allowing lots of investment in and sure that's going to include, you know, a whole bunch of stuff that will touch the

average Cuban people. What you don't want it to be is a small number of deals that um Americans that are connected to Trump make money in their investments

and it's all picked up by the Cuban military and the Cuban people don't get any of it because then then Cuba's not opening, right? That that's not what you

opening, right? That that's not what you want. What you want is the opportunity

want. What you want is the opportunity for Cuban, the Cuban people to develop a real economy, to like have small and medium enterprises that they can be a part of, to have employment

opportunities that they can be proud of, to to actually themselves be able to participate in a global economy that their own country has cut them off from

for 60 years now.

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And finally, let's return home. Uh, you

know, I don't even want unless you want to talk about I don't even want to talk about the shooting of the white or the ballroom. I think it's such a

ballroom. I think it's such a distraction at this point. Um,

I'd be very surprised that people are talking about it in a week to be honest.

It feels again, I think the Secret Service did a pretty good job. violence

assassination attempt, but ultimately the guy didn't get into the ballroom.

So, it's not close to Charlie or or the assassination attempt that that came this close. Right.

this close. Right.

Agreed. Uh any thoughts on the state of um the parties right now headed into what will at some point be election season for the midterms?

Well, I so I'm interested in your views on this too, Scott. I mean, I at this point I believe that Trump understands that the midterms are lost. I think he knows that he can't turn the economy

around. That's why he's suddenly

around. That's why he's suddenly pivoting towards patience on Iran.

That's why he said, "I'm surprised oil prices are so low. I thought they could be $250, $300. They're under a hundred."

Um, I think he knows that that he's in too deep. And so the midterms are lost.

too deep. And so the midterms are lost.

And so then the question is, does that make him more risk acceptant?

Does it make him more willing to allow this war to go on and roll the dice and maybe even use ground troops? Because,

you know, one of the things so far, one of the that has been a a limitation of how badly this war is perceived as going by the Americans is 13 Americans have

been killed, but but no ground troops have been inserted. That could change very easily, and there are plans for that. and there are troops that are in

that. and there are troops that are in the region for that, but Trump recognizes that they're they're extremely risky and they're they're not being recommended by his adviserss. So,

if he knows he's going to lose no matter what and and he knows that in the following two years he's going to become more of a lame duck, does that make him

more risk acceptant in trying to end checks and balances against him and just throw everything at the wall? Um, or

does he give up on that and start focusing more on monetization? He's

worth 5 billion that he's made through the presidency in the last year. How

about 50? You know, what how does he how can he potentially use the the the remainder of his period in time to make as much money for himself and his family

as humanly possible. And I'm not saying he can't do both, but I do suspect that there will be a prioritization of one or

the other. And it is not clear to me

the other. And it is not clear to me that uh the closer he gets to the end of the administration whether he really is

trying to go all out like Bolsinaro in Brazil and I must find a way to ensure that my political opponents are defeated and they're investigated and they're

arrested and I control the elections and I select the next person or he just gives up on that because it ain't happening. um and and he focuses on the

happening. um and and he focuses on the stuff that he can do, which is make a [ __ ] ton of money um as president. And I

don't I don't know the answer to that.

Yeah. I I always learned from you and the thing that um take away from this conversation that's literally sent chills down my spine. It just makes so much sense and I think the media or most

of the media has missed it and it just if you just look at the fact patterns here, it's such an obvious insight.

Um, and I but I had I had missed it. I

think you're right. I think there's a non-zero probability he trades Taiwan for billions of dollars of personal enrichment. If you're absolutely right,

enrichment. If you're absolutely right, she can say to the guy, figure out a way we'll work with you to kind of slow step a creeping takeover of Taiwan. You start

making noises about we need peace in China and Taiwan. You withdraw the military umbrella coverage of Taiwan and and wink wink. Once you're out of

the presidency, I'll figure out ways, whether it's buying billions of Trumpcoin or or doing hotel deals in in China that are

guaranteed to to work, so to speak.

Yeah. I I it seems to me that seems to me like the most obvious path here. And

I love what you said that she would be derelict in his duty not to offer that.

That's the cheapest way to invade China right now is to bribe a corrupt president. I mean I how far you could

president. I mean I how far you could actually go in implementing something like that uh because uh Congress exists and there would be uh strong resistance

from inside Trump's administration himself. Um but but that's very

himself. Um but but that's very different from an announcement by Trump that I do not want an independent Taiwan which creates facts on the ground. So, I

mean, a a a withdrawal of American military uh engagement that that seems really hard to actually implement. Um

willingness to talk with the Chinese about what defense the US sells to Taiwan. Trump is already willing to at

Taiwan. Trump is already willing to at least engage with Xihinping on that.

Trump has already shown after the Japanese prime minister got herself in trouble in responding in a slightly inmperate way to a journalist question on whether you defend Taiwan or not. And

the Chinese cut off their tourism to China to Japan, cut off their seafood imports from Japan. And Trump's response was not to defend her position, which is

aligned with the historic American position, right? It's it's rather well

position, right? It's it's rather well calling her and said why don't you calm it down on Taiwan. So Trump has already shown his bonafites to the Chinese as someone that wants

peace and security and stability in Taiwan even over the historic position of some of his predecessors Democrat and

Republican. The question is how much

Republican. The question is how much farther can Xiinping push that? and and

I'm suggesting that that proposition is going to be tested um when they meet one on-one and and and the best time to do that is not when it's a big formal

meeting with both sides arrayed but rather when it is the smallest possible venue between she Trump and a couple of translators.

But at the end of the day, can he just say to him in a private meeting, "Yeah, we have Ohio class submarines that have nuclear launch capability of France, each of them." And that's I would imagine that's one of the biggest

deterrents to taking any sort of military action or a blockade against Taiwan by the Chinese. Can he just say wink wink, I'll tell him to stand down?

Uh, no. Well, I don't think he can do that because that implies that what the Chinese are into here is a a surprise military attack against Taiwan, which

would be incredibly risky for them to do. And and and actually um you know,

do. And and and actually um you know, cuts against everything that China's been showing us. Uh China's the biggest move China's made on Taiwan um since the

war in Iran started was they invited the head of the quamang the opposition party which is more in favor of um of peaceful crossstrait relations softer towards

Beijing invited her um to Beijing to meet with Xiinping and on the back of that they made a bunch of unilateral offers to improve cultural and diplomatic engagement as well as

economic engagement with Taiwan much of which was rejected by the more nationalist president of Taiwan. But this was Xihinping showing that the future is not

about the military. The future is about we're so much bigger and and and we're not trying to engage in hostilities.

It's this rebel troublemaker president that you have who you should not be voting for in the next elections by the way. And you know, he's trying to show

way. And you know, he's trying to show that Trump is part of the solution. So,

it's not it's not a wink wink we're going to attack and you're not going to do anything. It's more about how can you

do anything. It's more about how can you nudge shift the the the table in our favor in

a long-term trajectory so that there is a peaceful unification of Taiwan with China, which is what Xiinping sees as an ultimate legacy issue of his of his

leadership. So, you don't even think the

leadership. So, you don't even think the Chinese would consider a naval blockade.

You think it's going to be a quote unquote they're going to attempt a softer reunification or a soft take?

I don't think they believe it's remotely necessary in the near term. I think if things went badly in the upcoming elections and it proved to be a a

landslide for the DPP, I could imagine the Chinese starting to do things like um boarding uh some suspicious vessels

with the Coast Guard as opposed to the military. So, it didn't require an

military. So, it didn't require an American military response. I could see that. Um so, again, even in the worst

that. Um so, again, even in the worst case scenario, it's longer term and it's more incremental. I don't think there's

more incremental. I don't think there's anything this year that the Chinese are going to try on the military front. I

think it's much more we've got a shot to really improve our lie by engaging with this guy that doesn't care about Taiwan and and that he can be bought off individually. And so many leaders, the

individually. And so many leaders, the Pakistanis, um you know, Honduras, others around the world, leaders, former leaders, they're showing us that they can they can buy indulgences, they can buy pardons, they

can buy policies. You know, this is the one thing we really want. By the way, we already gave him Tik Tok, which was the thing he most wanted to have control over algorithmically with his friends so that they could have more control over

the media environment. Hey, we in China, we respect that. We've got complete control of our media environment. So, we

understand why Trump wants that. So,

they gave it to him. They let him buy it, right? So, I mean, they have built

it, right? So, I mean, they have built credibility with Trump already that shows that we are willing to give on the things that matter to you. So you need

to give on the things that matter to us and Taiwan may matter to America, but does Taiwan really matter to Trump? I

mean, it's it's hard to make that call.

So, last question here. uh in I'm trying to be and I don't know if I'm talking my own book here or trying to manifest something but it fills with or bond's defeat with what looks like to be a

pretty significant um pickup for Democrats in the House and possibly in the Senate. When you look at Trump's popularity, when you look at the

fact that the world feels more insecure and full of wars and conflict right now, might there not just be a blue wave in America, but a blue wave that absolutely

sweeps the West? I mean, there are countries where you don't see that happening uh right now in the UK, you certainly don't see that happening. You

see reform UK is doing far better and labor's imploding. You don't see it in

labor's imploding. You don't see it in Germany where the AFD is picking up um and the the center left the social democrats are in complete disarray. Um

so I can give you counter examples but what I what we are seeing I think that reflects um the broader point you're making is that in democracies where

leaders are showing themselves to be wildly corrupt andor wildly incompetent um there is a real reaction function

from the publics that thought that they represented them to to knock them out of power. And uh I do think that that is a

power. And uh I do think that that is a a throughput line of Hungary and the United States right now. I think that Trump had a whole bunch of things that

he stood for when he ran for office.

Ending the wars that you're fighting on the backs of a lot of people that don't have money and connections. Yeah. End

those wars. Securing the borders when you're taking care. inviting all these illegals in and you're providing them with benefits and and you're not taking

care of me and my family. Noms don't

want any of that. Um and drain the swamp because you got all these powerful people and you've got a two-tier system injustice and and I'm done with that and and that's why we want the Epstein files

out. And now he has gone against his

out. And now he has gone against his populist impulses and instincts on all of these things. Um, I mean, the border is still secure. That's gone well, but

the affordability crisis is real, and it's on him because of the Iran war.

He's fighting an unnecessary war that Israel certainly cares about, but the Americans don't. Um, and he's doing it

Americans don't. Um, and he's doing it at the price of the pump and of of of groceries and these things that like this is why people voted for him. Said,

"We're going to stop doing this crazy international stuff because you're going to take care of Americans." He even he was the guy that cut a horrible deal with the Taliban, allowing them to

basically take over the country, right?

But he got to end a trillion dollar unnecessary bleeding war on the back of not well-connected, not wealthy

Americans. And people supported that.

Americans. And people supported that.

and and now whether it's Epstein or whether it's Iran or whether it's the economy or whether it's it's the extraordinary corruption, Trump has gone against

all of the things that got him elected.

And and I I don't I I certainly think, okay, there are some MAGA supporters that act like it's a cult and they'll support him literally no matter what he does. But that's not even all MAGA

does. But that's not even all MAGA supporters. Not at all. This is not a

supporters. Not at all. This is not a These people are not brainwashed automatons. They're not idiots. They

automatons. They're not idiots. They

they ultimately see when their leader is screwing them and it matters to them.

And some of those people, they may not vote for Dems, but they'll stay home and that matters. And the independents,

that matters. And the independents, absolutely not. And the Bernie swing

absolutely not. And the Bernie swing voters, absolutely not. So, I I think that happened in Hungary. It was a lot harder in Hungary. Hungary, this guy had

power for 16 years. Hungary. This guy

made it so hard for any opposition candidate to actually come in and take out a seat. So much harder to actually win. And he didn't just win a little. He

win. And he didn't just win a little. He

won a constitutional majority. And now

Orban is giving up his seat and he's going to spend the summer in the United States. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

States. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Um, and uh, I think it's fantastic that the people of Hungary were capable of voting this bastard out in favor of someone that actually represented their

national interests. And I feel quite

national interests. And I feel quite confident that's going to happen in November here in the United States.

Ian Bremer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk and research and consulting firm. Uh, and GZero Media, a

consulting firm. Uh, and GZero Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs. He joins us from

international affairs. He joins us from his office in New York. Uh Ian, uh always appreciate your time and always learn from you. Thanks very much.

Thanks. Great to see you, Scott. Thanks

a lot.