🔴 The Iran War Just Changed David Hunter's Global Bust Scenario (here's what changed)

I would say that, you know, particularly because of what happened in Iran, we've rebuilt the wall of worry and you have a

um a fear-based backdrop and that wall of worry is the fuel for the next advance and that whereas equity markets have gone to new highs, I think there

was more damage done to the metals and it's taken more, you know, the investor is still pretty skeptical about where it's going. So, but I'm, you know, I I

it's going. So, but I'm, you know, I I think you're going to see new highs in both gold and silver this quarter. So,

in the second quarter, you're watching Capital Cosm. My name is Danny. It is April 21st, 2026, and my

Danny. It is April 21st, 2026, and my guest today is David Hunter. David,

thank you so much for coming back on the show, my friend. you're a big fan favorite. So, people have been wanting

favorite. So, people have been wanting to get an update on your your bus scenario. Uh see see if that's changed

scenario. Uh see see if that's changed since the last time we spoke back in early January. Clearly, lots has changed

early January. Clearly, lots has changed around the world. So,

yes.

Yeah. So, you know what? Let's just kick it off with that. But before we do, I just want to say that today's episode is sponsored by the forecaster.biz. Uh be

sure to check out our link in the description box as well as the pin comment to get your discount link to the forecaster.biz. will be using uh the

forecaster.biz. will be using uh the tool throughout the show. So Dave, let's go ahead and kick it off with some highle introspection or high level

analysis on the S&P. Uh you can see here, I mean, we're pretty much just a smidge off the highs of the S&P. Why is

the S&P making new alltime high? seems

like you were it seems like it was pretty much done and dusted a few weeks ago um at the tail end of March, but now, you know, we had an all-time high a couple of days ago and here we are. So,

yeah, go ahead.

As as you know, it's not it's not surprising to me. I've been calling for this meltup and I think we have begun the that final leg of the run to a top.

Um and frankly um you know we we had the correction um because of the war. So you

know we sold off all through March. Um

and I think what you've seen from that bottom basically uh um you know a few weeks ago. Um it it really is um

weeks ago. Um it it really is um anticipating that what we did in Iran is going to run its course pretty quickly.

Um, you know, we had a lot of bearish talk out there, you know, less than a month ago, about actually a couple weeks ago even, about oil going to $200.

Um, that it was going to be a disaster for the economy. Uh, that, you know, Iran was going to be a long drawn out uh war like Iraq. And, you know, you had

you had everybody coming out of the woodwork talking bearish. And the market in its typical wisdom looked ahead and said no that's not the case. Uh and we

have seen since then you know oil has come down uh you know topped out at 120 or thereabouts on WTI. Um it's come down

uh I think it's going to come down a lot more once we get this thing um resolved.

And uh you know again we're we're up against the deadline for the ceasefire. you

know, was supposed to be over by uh you know, it was a two week ceasefire which ends Wednesday night. Um so, you know, market's nervous about whether um as

soon as uh you know, this negotiation doesn't go well that we're going to see bombs dropping again as as early as Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Um

and I, you know, so the market's nervous. That's what today is about. I

nervous. That's what today is about. I

think today is also about uh the confirmation hearing for Kevin Moore.

So, you've got a couple things there, but you're right. I mean, the market's at all-time highs, you know, made all-time highs in this uh this week. Um

and I think uh there's a lot more to go.

So, um you know, I'm I'm pretty sure you're going to find that Iran is not a long drawn out situation. Whether it

happens in a negotiation now or whether we have to drop some more bombs and it takes a little bit longer and you get a little more volatility. Either way, I suspect it's going to be over pretty

quickly here. Um, you know, people

quickly here. Um, you know, people misread Trump. He doesn't want war. He

misread Trump. He doesn't want war. He

doesn't want uh this thing to be drawn out. He knows that he he can't afford

out. He knows that he he can't afford going into the midterm elections, you know, oil going to, you know, a lot higher. Um people are pretty upset with

higher. Um people are pretty upset with him now. Um but on the other hand, he

him now. Um but on the other hand, he also knows that if he doesn't deal with this now, it's not going to get dealt with and they're going to just keep coming back. So we have done a lot of

coming back. So we have done a lot of damage. Their military's been, you know,

damage. Their military's been, you know, pretty much destroyed. Uh but they can still obviously we've seen with the straight hormuz they can cause a lot of

um worldwide uh problems. And so he doesn't want that. He wants to get some resolution here.

Um, ideally it'd be nice to get regime change, but um, you can hear in his comments he's trying to trying to indicate that what we have now are are

more moderate people in the leadership because they took out a couple levels of leadership. I'm not sure that's the

leadership. I'm not sure that's the case. Obviously, the, you know, the

case. Obviously, the, you know, the Iranian Guard is not that. They're

pretty radical still. Um, but I've heard talk and I'm sure you've seen this too, that a lot of um, you're seeing a lot of defections from the army or from the

military there, the Iranian guard. Um, I

think they see the writing on the wall.

So, you've got the hardcore leadership.

Uh it's just a question of what how much they will um you know play ball here, how much they will agree to some kind of a negotiated settlement where we do take

the uranium uranium out of there, the enriched uranium out of there and we really have the ability to control what they're doing going forward. Uh that

would I would say that's the most likely thing. Um but you know we'll find out in

thing. Um but you know we'll find out in a couple days.

Interesting. So, you know, you look back at the S&P's performance and uh you you know, we're making this case or you're making this case that uh you know, we're

we're in the last leg up in this uh blowoff top, so to speak, until we hit a global bust. Um an interesting look at

global bust. Um an interesting look at the last several years of the S&P. 2023,

the S&P was up 24%. 2024, 24%.

Uh 2025, 16%. And so far in 2026, 3.3%.

Couldn't you also make the case that we've been in a blowoff top since 2023 here David?

Um, you could. There's certainly a lot of people that think we're at a top or that we've been putting in a top. I

would argue that I I kind of look at it a little different time frame. Um, if

you stretch out uh and look, you've had these steep um legs. If you go go back just uh probably to 2020, but certainly to 2022

and what you'll see is you had, you know, each each leg each successive leg has gotten steeper. Um, and we're I I think what we're in now, if you look at

the move out of last April, you know, a year ago, April, when we had the tariff sell off, um, and you went up 41% in the

S&P between April of 25 and October of 25.

I think, as I've said, these are each of these legs has gotten steeper from the previous leg. I think we're about we

previous leg. I think we're about we have just entered the final steepest leg. So if we did 41%

leg. So if we did 41% in um six months last year I think this one you're going to see and my my call

is for 90. I've raised my targets probably since we last talked. Uh no I think I raised them last in October 25.

So it's the target I had when I talked to you last in January. I'm still at 9500 on the S&P. So, if you go from uh

where do we get down to 60 uh 300 maybe? So, no 6200 maybe uh and you run it up to 9500, you basically got

a 50% move there from the lows of last month to where I think we're going to top out this summer. So if you can do

50% in four or five months and you did 41% in six months last time, you've got that steeper leg that I think is the

final leg. Um so you know there's a lot

final leg. Um so you know there's a lot still ahead of us if we're at 70 where are we 70 uh almost 7100.

Um you know to run from 7100 to 9500 whatever that math is uh is probably something under 40% now. So, um, pretty good run, but, uh, I think I think we

can do it.

Uh, does this year being a midterm year have any impact in your mind on the stock market? You look back in 2022,

stock market? You look back in 2022, which was the last midterm year.

Obviously, you saw a big correction in the stock market from I'm looking again at the S&P 4,700 all the way down to 3600. And then before that was 2018.

3600. And then before that was 2018.

Uh not as big of a correction, but from 2,800 down to a low of uh what is it? 2600.

Y um or all the way to Yeah, the low is actually right here at the very tail end of 2018.

2500 or something like that. Um does the fact that it's a midterm year have any bearing to certainly there are a lot of calls for you know coming into this year for this

to be a pretty uh mediocre year because it is uh midterm election year and that's the history I would say I I look at as you know I look at sentiment a lot

and I would say that you know particularly because of what happened in Iran we've rebuilt the wall of worry and

you have a um a fear-based backdrop and that wall of worry is the fuel for the next advance. And that's that's really

next advance. And that's that's really to me more important than whether historically we, you know, typically see midterms because midterms are are what

they are partially because you have the runup the year before and then they kind of go sideways to down. um because

midterms are you know there's a lot of back and forth from the parties and um you know I I think this time around

sentiment will will um dwarf that and I view it from a contrarian standpoint obviously if sentiment's pretty bearish it's fuel for the next advance and I think it's going to be a big advance and

because I do think we're coming to the the end of what will probably turn out to be a 44 year secular bull market that

started back in 1982.

Um, you know, you're you're up on stilts if you stretch your you know, your chart back to, you know, 40 years ago. Um, but

um I I think the last the last run is going to be the steepest one yet.

I see. Yeah. I mean, I've pulled up the market mood meter here on the forecaster, and I'll just uh zoom it back in here for a second. So, let's go ahead and take a look at the last 6

months. Uh yeah, so you see, you know,

months. Uh yeah, so you see, you know, the fear index was all the way down here at the bottom, extreme fear. Um if you zoom out, zoom out to a year's time, or actually it's due five years or three

years. Uh the last time we hit a bottom

years. Uh the last time we hit a bottom like that was during the April 2025 sell-off during the uh tariff stuff. And

uh since then, since uh the the low here in at the end of March that we just talked about a few moments ago, um the mood has swung all the way up. Now, it's

important to note that the mood can swing up, but as we saw here in 2025, you know, the m, you know, the we went from extreme greed and we corrected all the way back down throughout the course

of the year, but nonetheless, from a valuation standpoint, the market kept going up, although be at a decelerating rate. Do you see something like that

rate. Do you see something like that coming down the the pike for the rest of the year, or do you see it more parabolic? Yeah, I don't I don't know

parabolic? Yeah, I don't I don't know this particular assignment indicator, but they flip around quickly. But as you see, it's during that period after they've peaked out where they're giving

up some of that that extreme bullishness. The consensus is still

bullishness. The consensus is still buying stocks. So, yeah, I think I think

buying stocks. So, yeah, I think I think what you just talked about is kind of accurate of what I think we could see again is, you know, yes, you spiked up sentiment very quickly from the, you

know, the bottom in March. Um, but it doesn't mean you quickly sell at the, you know, top of that sentiment indicator because there's still probably several months where people have to act

on their their bullishness.

I see. So, would it be fair to say that your global bus scenario, David, is still pretty much intact despite uh, everything that's gone on the last couple of months?

I think so. I think in fact what went on in Iran and what went on with oil um just creates creates more fragility in the system. I mean you've got not so

the system. I mean you've got not so much in the US uh although some because you know there's half the economy that is just getting by. So it doesn't help

them to have gas prices up a dollar. Um

however the real problem is in Asia and in Europe. I mean, you know, they've

in Europe. I mean, you know, they've they've not only got a a big price increase, but they also have availability issues. So, so I do think

availability issues. So, so I do think not that that's what's going to trigger the bust, but I think it just continues to move the global economy towards a

bust.

Interesting. So, uh just from a thought experiment standpoint, what if uh some sort of peace settlement doesn't come into play? H how would that change the

into play? H how would that change the the global bus thesis?

Um well, for sure. I mean, if if things turned uh south in a hurry and and you had um you know, Iran had the capability to take out a lot of oil fields in the

Middle East, um you know, some of their neighbors. And if we if we did what

neighbors. And if we if we did what Trump threatened and and bombed the the Iranian oil fields, you know, oil

infrastructure, um you'd probably send oil a lot higher and and stock south. Obviously, I don't expect that, but that's why the markets

are nervous. I think that's that's the

are nervous. I think that's that's the risk.

Yeah. So, let's uh hone in really quick on oil. just give it its its time in the

on oil. just give it its its time in the spotlight here. As you can see, we we

spotlight here. As you can see, we we hit a high of 120 at the start of the the war and now we're at just a little

south of $90, $8848 today at the time of this recording. And so, you know, you

this recording. And so, you know, you see oil coming down lower here. Yeah, I

if if it's a big if still, but if we get a um a negotiated settlement here, I would not be surprised to see oil down

to 70 very quickly. Uh from there it might take some time to get back down into the 60s, but I think that would be your next I think you'd have another,

you know, from this this short rise we've had recently uh this week, uh I think you'd see another sharp sell off down into the 70s and maybe even down to

the low 70s. Um if we don't uh and the bombing commences again um you could see this thing back up over 100 for sure.

Has has everything that's transpired the last um you know 50 plus days or whatever it's been since the start has has all the damage that's been done to

these oil fields and refineries is that recoverable in a short amount of time to you know recover oil back down to the 60s and 70s do you think? I do I'm I

know the I know the narrative out there is that this is going to take a long time to you know because because of some of the the lost um supply but don't

forget going into this oil dropped dramatically down into the mid50s because we had this surplus of oil. Um

you've got um you know and and we had what happened in Venezuela. We have

obviously what's happening in Iran. I

think people are I think traders are overly bearish uh in terms of or overly bullish I guess on oil prices in terms of what it's going to do uh overly negative in terms

of you know the impact it's going to have um I think you're going to find once this gets resolved um we're going to go back to a situation

where not in every place Europe's going to take some time to get straightened out Asia's probably going to get take some time to get their inventory is back up. Um, but I think you're going to see

up. Um, but I think you're going to see that the markets being forward looking are going to move oil down pretty quickly.

Interesting. Well, let's shift over to gold here. Uh, gold and oil oftent times

gold here. Uh, gold and oil oftent times are somewhat tied at the hip because, you know, during times of crisis, both may move up. O, uh, gold did not move in tandem with oil, though.

Uh, but it has been. Yeah, go ahead.

gold, gold and silver are basically risk on trades right now. I mean, they're they're not so concerned about um oil

and and inflation as they are just risk on trades. And so when well, you know,

on trades. And so when well, you know, they obviously we had the big selloff in in February uh after the big runup in in

gold and silver in January. Um but then they started to go again and then the war hit. You can see it pretty easily.

war hit. You can see it pretty easily.

You know, first day of March, they rolled right over and they went to lower lows. Um, that's all the riskoff trade.

lows. Um, that's all the riskoff trade.

You know, same thing that happened. They

track really the stock market more than they track anything else at that point because they were both riskoff trades.

And we've started to build it back.

Whereas equity markets have gone to new highs, I think there was more damage done to the metals and it's taken more, you know, investors are still pretty skeptical about where it's going. So,

but I'm, you know, I I think you're going to see new highs in both gold and silver this quarter. So, in the second quarter,

um, so we'll see. you know, today's you're getting some selloff because of um you know, the the nervousness about I think the the war sharing didn't h help

at all, but I think also you know it's the whole negotiation over in Iran or over in Pakistan. So, um we'll see if they hold here somewhere in here. I

think they'll resume probably later this week. If they don't hold here, you may

week. If they don't hold here, you may have to take some time to kind of rebuild it again.

Interesting. Here's silver as well.

Silver is a lot lower off its all-time high um at $77 compared to $120 a few months back. So, you think there's a real shot of silver? You mentioned

gold, but also silver making an all-time high this quarter? Yeah, I'm and if not this quarter this summer, I am um I raised I guess after we talked last time

um with that runup in silver in January and then the the first sell off down to the mid6. I'm trying to think what I

the mid6. I'm trying to think what I what I put out.

It's at 95 now. It's at 95. Yeah.

Yeah. No, my my GDX target is 180. My

GDXJ target is 250. my uh SIL which is the large cap silver miners is at 220 and my SILJ which is the junior minor uh

silver miner is at 90. So those are big runs and in the silver cases certainly juniors you know it's it's a triple um so

and I think that happens this year so it it's you know these are aggressive moves if they happen um and then and then I think along with the stock market you've

got big downside on the other side of this so this is kind of the end of a move not the beginning of anything you know looking at these uh mining stocks indices

you know, they haven't really, yes, they've sold off, but given like a hundred and we've we've been over $100 oil many days throughout the course of the

last 50 days or so. And even at $88 oil, I mean, the the input costs you would anticipate to go up significantly for these mining stocks, but they pretty much kept pace with the price of their

respective metals. They haven't really

respective metals. They haven't really underperformed in any significant way.

Um, yeah, I think the miners this time around, not only that, but in past cycles when you've had a move like this in the metals, you saw all kinds of M&A

activity, right? They these companies

activity, right? They these companies always went out and tried to get bigger and buy other companies and they they thought, you know, they almost acted like retail investors. They bought at the top.

This time around, they've shown much more discipline and they're much more focused on their operations, I think.

So, um, you know, you don't capture all of that spot move in in silver and gold.

Obviously, they have contracts that have to run over time, but but they're obviously their selling prices have moved up a lot because of metals have moved up a lot and so they've got

they've got room to absorb the, you know, the increased costs from oil, etc. I see. Well, uh, let's, uh, shift over

I see. Well, uh, let's, uh, shift over to the bond market here. I know we have a big, uh, hearing today with Fed chair

pick Kevin Worsh, but before we get into some of the politics going on there, let's get your take on, uh, yield. This

is a TNX, the 10-year bond yield, the US 10-year yield, and it looks like we've just been moving, we've been hitting our heads on this 4.3% number for a while

now. Uh where do where do yields want to

now. Uh where do where do yields want to go here, David?

Yeah, if you look at that, there's a lot of people that see that as a um you know uh a kind of a base built for higher rates. I

see it as a big top, basically a two and a half to threeyear top in in rates. And

I think we exit out of this on the downside, not the upside. So,

we're kind of we're kind of in the trading range, as you say, between kind of low fours and and the mid fours.

Um, in terms of the 10-year, I think we're going to see very shortly um it move down under four. Once we get under four, I think we're we're heading for

3%, maybe even two and a half percent this year.

Under 3%.

Yeah. I what I you know right now the kind of narrative out there or the the consensus forecast out there I think for the economy is that it's you know it's

moving along. It's not it's not robust

moving along. It's not it's not robust but it's not recession either and inflation's heading higher uh is what people I think the consensus is. I think

as we move along here we're going to see the economy slower than we expect whether it's in recession or not. It's

pretty, you know, it's moving in that direction. Uh, and I think inflation

direction. Uh, and I think inflation once, if oil rolls over here, I think the inflation will move back into a we're trending down, not trending up

type of situation. So, um, both of those things of slower economy and and better news on inflation, I think, are going to help the bond market. Um and and I think

as we move into the fourth quarter this year, I think the economy will be clearly slowing and maybe slowing quite a bit.

Interesting. So bullish bonds in this case because again guys lower bond yields imply bond buying. Um bullish

bonds and stocks is uh Yep.

Is that the call? Interesting.

Yeah, definitely bullish bonds and stocks and I think surprisingly bullish on both of those. I mean, far outside expectations of of the consensus, uh, even the bulls, um, and bullish metals.

So, you're going to have all three major markets, I think, moving together. Uh,

it does happen. It doesn't happen all that often, but it does happen.

Interesting. When did it ever happen before?

Um it usually when you usually see that is early in a coming out of a recession, you know, usually like coming out of 82

or coming out of um um 20089, you had metals moving up, you had bonds moving up and you had, you know, stocks moving up. So it's it's funny because we're in

up. So it's it's funny because we're in my opinion, we're at the end of a cycle.

So this is rare to see um all of those moving. And what else is rare is I think

moving. And what else is rare is I think we're going to see in this final rally in the stock market a broadening in the market um where you know both small cap

and large cap play um tech plays but also um financials play and industrial play etc. So it's unusual again as you move towards a major top normally you're

you're seeing narrowing of a market. uh

we had that a couple years ago as you know when we had the mag seven dominating everything but I said consistently since then that the market would broaden out and we've seen that in the Russell the Russell's

at new all-time highs and nobody thought they'd see that. Um so and I and my forecast in terms of the Russell is that we're going to 3800. You do the math on that and that outperforms the NASDAQ. It

outperforms the S&P from here.

Outperforms the Dow. So, um, yeah, it's kind of a a little different setup than if people are basing their forecast on president. I don't think they'd get

president. I don't think they'd get here.

Is is the forecast dependent upon like some sort of QE or like they inject a bunch of liquidity into the market and so like every market kind of gets a bit up in the process or is or not?

Uh, not. Yeah, I'm I'm pretty I've been pretty consistent saying I don't my forecast, this bullish forecast was not based on expectations of big QE. In

fact, I've said part of the reason we'll have a bust is because they'll be slow to introduce QE again or slow to get to

a right-sized policy because of what they did in 20089 and and 2020. And you

know, Pal's been consistently saying we aren't going back there. I think Kevin Worsh has been consistent in saying he wants to shrink the balance sheet, not grow

it. Um, so that may be their, you know,

it. Um, so that may be their, you know, their intention or their desire, but ultimately when the bust hits, there's only one thing they can do and that is

print money like there's no tomorrow. So

it will come, but it'll come late. And

that's why you'll have a bust is because almost because of what happened before, they're fighting the last war. They're

they're reacting to what they realized was a mistake last time and saying we don't want to make that same mistake and this time around they're going to need to.

Does that imply that the capital or their liquidity if it doesn't come from the QE or the money printing then it must come from I guess outside the United States from foreign investments or like where do you see the liquidity

come from?

No, it's I that's why I talk about it.

you you've got a lot of um you know really since 2000 since 2022 since the bottom in 2022 institutional investors have fought this market all the way up so they've been

defensively positioned uh doesn't mean they have a lot of cash because a lot of them can't carry cash but you know they're going to get more aggressive I

think they almost if you go back to when we we were at 7,000 before the war they were just beginning to come around to um

you know for the first time in you know three years they were beginning to believe we were in a bull market for a long time they were saying yeah it's going up but it's it's a chance to sell

you know this market they were skeptical of how far it had to go because valuations were high when we went over 7,000 first time was the first time you really saw institutions talking more

bullish raising targets and then the war hit and they went right back into their bearish mode. Um, so I think that wall

bearish mode. Um, so I think that wall of worry, uh, even though it's bounced here, you know, the the sentiment has gone up, there's still a wall of worry

out there in terms of real underlying skepticism towards this. And it's it's that move from that skepticism towards, wow, this thing has legs and it can go

on for a couple years that's going to be that final move into the top, I think.

Um, and so there's there's cash. People

seem to think, you know, markets move up when the Fed eases and that they don't move. You know, I've been in this

move. You know, I've been in this business going back to 73, 1973.

Back then, it wasn't markets didn't depend on the Fed. Nobody was saying, "Oh, the Fed, if the Fed's not easing, I'm uh, you know, market's going down."

that that kind of u mindset I think got built in particularly since 2008 because that's what really drove us out of you

know the 2000 bottom 2009 bottom and then you had QE1 QE2 QE3 so people started thinking that equating that's what you need to have an up market now a

lot of times it's you know it's it's basically organic it's coming out of the institutions getting more aggressive and retail but retail's already been pretty

bullish through this. So,

interesting. Um, what's so, so what's the late So, you gave us a timeline for your gold and silver price targets, but what about the timeline for the global bust? Uh, what's the latest on that?

bust? Uh, what's the latest on that?

When do you anticipate us kind of running out of juice with this bull?

I think I mean, it's if you I've been guilty of having to extend it. the cycle

just keeps getting extended. So it could again but um my best guess right now is that it could start before the end of this year. You know again you bust comes

this year. You know again you bust comes recession comes first. You know you don't go right into a bust. I think

initially it'll be a slowing economy into a recession but you could if if things start happening if something triggers it it's a possibility it could

start before the end of this year probably late this year. um may not maybe next year and then I think most of

2027 is is a global bust uh or all of 2027. So whether it starts fourth

2027. So whether it starts fourth quarter or first quarter next year, I think that's kind of the time time

horizon for when it comes. It's it's

possible it gets delayed further, but I like I said, the oil thing maybe creates more fragility. Um there's certainly a

more fragility. Um there's certainly a lot of problems. Our, you know, our housing is probably going to get a bounce if rates come down here, but

housing's already really rolling over.

Uh certainly in in Florida, Georgia, um you know, Dallas area. So, so I think um you know, we're already seeing the

signs of a rolling over economy. And

then you add to that the massive leverage in the system and you can go from things seemingly okay to disaster pretty fast when when

things start rolling over.

So, uh, Kevin Walsh, who is the supposed next in line to replace Jerome Powell here in a bit, um, he's a former Fed

governor and, uh, you know, at the time of this recording, he is in his, uh, Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing. And so, I haven't had time to

hearing. And so, I haven't had time to actually listen in on, uh, everything that's that he's been questioned on so far, um, because it's ongoing right now.

It's ongoing live. But what do you anticipate? Do you anticipate any big

anticipate? Do you anticipate any big policy changes from Kevin Wars depend you know based on what we know about him or how do you how do you expect the Fed under Kevin Wars to differ from Jerome

Powell if it will differ at all?

Yeah, interestingly. Yeah, I I mean I saw a little bit of the hearing and for sure um you know he's getting hit from the left, you know, from the Democrats uh um and we knew that was going to

happen. That's typically what happens in

happen. That's typically what happens in the confirmation hearing anyway. So, but

he's as qualified a um candidate for this position as we've ever had. You

know, as you say, he's been a former Fed governor. He's he's steeped in monetary

governor. He's he's steeped in monetary economics. Um more so than I think

economics. Um more so than I think almost any Fed chairman going back all the way. Um and so I I mean I think he's

the way. Um and so I I mean I think he's a great pick. Uh I interestingly um because everybody thinks Trump wants lower rates and and you know

interestingly somebody understands monetary economics like I understand it which is you know you don't lower rates by um you know it's not the Fed that

cutting rates that lowers rates. It's

controlling inflation and inflation is a monetary thing. He's basically a

monetary thing. He's basically a freedmanite. you know, uh, inflation

freedmanite. you know, uh, inflation ultimately is, um, comes about because of overly um, printing money or

expanding the money supply. So, he's

he's talked about wanting to shrink the balance sheet back that we, you know, went from, as I say often, in October

2008, the Fed balance sheet was 875 billion going into the crisis.

uh it expanded from there to over three trillion and then uh up 3.7 trillion I think going into the 2020 crisis and

then went from 37 up to 9 trillion in response to the 2020 crisis. So we've

gone from 875 billion back in 2008 to 9 trillion and now we've he brought it back down to I think six and a half trillion. Um he's somebody that looks at

trillion. Um he's somebody that looks at that and says we're way out of bounds.

You know, it needs to get brought back down. Uh I would argue I agree with that

down. Uh I would argue I agree with that ultimately in a long-term theoretical from a long-term theoretical standpoint.

The problem is if we're heading for a global bust, no matter what he thinks, and even if it were Powell in there, whoever is in that seat isn't going to have a choice. Like I said, they're

going to be slow to and it probably wouldn't have been much different whether it was Powell or Worsh. They're

going to be slow to want to print money.

They're going to be slow to react to a an economy that's demanding more liquidity. You know, they'll do do it in

liquidity. You know, they'll do do it in fits and starts. I'm not saying they won't um expand money supply by at all.

But what I think it's going to take, if I'm right about a global bust, and this is global, it's not just the US.

I think you could see 20 trillion expansion in the Fed. So if the Fed got up to 9 trillion, you might see it get up to 30 trillion in terms of their balance sheet. If you told him that

balance sheet. If you told him that today, he'd say that's impossible. We'll

never do that. I would never allow that.

That's easy to say until you have a free falling financial system. And that's

what I think the global bust will be more so from, you know, probably Europe.

I think European banks are uh more in more trouble than we are. Uh Canadian

banks are more leveraged than we are now. They they were in great shape in

now. They they were in great shape in 2008. They're now in in much worse shape

2008. They're now in in much worse shape than we are. you know, we were forced, our banks were forced to get religion, to delever, to, you know, build capital.

So, our banks in 2008 were a disaster.

They're not today. However, banks around the globe, Europe, Asia, uh Japan, uh Canada, you know, if they if they start running

into big trouble, if we see, you know, financial failures overseas, our banking system is not going to skate through that. We'll be in trouble, too.

through that. We'll be in trouble, too.

So, you know, it's just there. It's a

small world. So if that happens, you're going to see every policy maker around the world, every Fed, every central banker around the world at some point

finally recognize we only have one solution that can move fast enough to save the system. And that's when you'll see all that money. But that will come well into the downturn, you know, many

months into it. Initially they'll be doing pieces of things you know well they might print a trillion here or a trillion there but ultimately when they

see that this thing is just I mean 2020 was a good example when things are really starting to unwind quickly you can't go to Congress and say can you come up with a solution can you figure

out fiscally what we can you know it'll take months for them to figure out what to do even if they move fast the only thing that you can do that that is quick

is money and it will take all kinds of liquidity poured into the system to stabilize the system and begin to move it the other way. So that's frankly um

as much as I think Wars is the best person for the job um ultimately I think the macro trumps no pun intended but the macro trumps any

policy. It it it doesn't matter who it

policy. It it it doesn't matter who it is, they're going to be forced into this both here and in the central banks abroad.

Got it. Understood. Well, David, it's uh it's always a pleasure having you on, my friend. Um this is all the these are all

friend. Um this is all the these are all the questions I have lined up for us today, but if there's anything you specifically like to talk about, uh feel free to do so. The floor is yours. If

not, then we can kind of transition over to closing statements. Yeah, just

because of where we're we are in the cycle, I just want to kind of make a little bit of comment about, you know, if if I'm right, and again, that's still an if. Um, but if I'm right that this is

an if. Um, but if I'm right that this is a blowoff top, that we're going to see, you know, potentially 35 or 40% move here in a very short period of time,

four or five months. Um, I would just caution people to understand who you are as an investor, as a trader, whatever you are, understand how psychology works

and just be aware that as we get closer to that top, if we see that kind of a move in a short time, the way psychology works is you're going to be more

bullish, not more bearish, most people at the top. And there's going to be a compelling reason. You know, you don't

compelling reason. You know, you don't go to a top with everybody thinking negatively. You're going to be at that

negatively. You're going to be at that time hearing all kinds of narratives that will convince a lot of people that this thing has legs, it can go on for a

year or two or three more, that the Feds behind us, you know, the winds at our back. Um that, you know, the situation

back. Um that, you know, the situation in the Middle East is resolved. We have

peace breaking out around the world.

There's going to be a bullish narrative out there. I can guarantee that. And

out there. I can guarantee that. And

what you have to guard against is getting caught up in that. And people

need to understand how sentiment works and how markets work. So that at the very top of a market um it's it's hard to sell. It's hard.

You're looking and you're saying, "Well, what if what if they're right? Look what

I could miss." And I would just caution people, don't be greedy. If you're in and you've and you've written it um you know understand it as as it's saying and

it doesn't mean the minute you hear bullish sign is up like we saw on that chart. It over time you'll people keep

chart. It over time you'll people keep asking me how will I know when the top is in and I say I I obviously won't be able to call the exact top. Hopefully I

can get close but I may not. Um but my signal will be when everybody else is all in. you know, when when you're

all in. you know, when when you're hearing everybody tell you that this thing has legs and that, you know, they're in with both feet, that's a signal to say, "Hey, I may not be

capturing the top, but I think I've captured a good part of it." So, just I would just tell people as a as a contrarian, um, you know, it's important to understand how markets work and how

sentiment works with those markets.

Excellent. Well, Dave, it's always a pleasure having you on, my friend. Where

can people find you if they want to see more of your work?

Yes, I am on X every day um replying to questions and comments. Um so if you go to Daveh contrarian

uh I'm on there as I said pretty much every day. Um and then I also put out a

every day. Um and then I also put out a quarterly investment letter um that comes out the second week of every

quarter. It's by subscription if anybody

quarter. It's by subscription if anybody is interested in that. Uh you know comes with a cost obviously. So they can uh direct message me on Twitter which is

their new chat feature and I will provide details.

Excellent. We'll have the link to your Twitter account down below. Um and guys let me know if you enjoyed the podcast.

Drop us a like. Comment. Go David. Go in

the comments section. Let me know your thoughts. Do you think uh do you

thoughts. Do you think uh do you subscribe to Dave's global bus thesis?

Do you think this is the final run in the stock market for a big bust or do you think that the bus is much closer than uh we talked about today? Let me

know your thoughts down below. But you

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time. Thanks for watching. Bye. Thanks.