The OpenAI Internet Browser Has Arrived: ChatGPT Atlas w/ Dave Blundin & Alexander Wissner-Gross
By Peter H. Diamandis
Summary
## Key takeaways - **OpenAI's Atlas Browser: A Distribution Channel for Superintelligence**: OpenAI's new Atlas browser isn't just a product; it's a strategic distribution channel for their superintelligence. The focus is on how AI will become a personal portal, seamlessly pulling data and advising users, regardless of the specific browser used. [00:26], [16:42] - **AI's Role in Accelerating Biology and Longevity**: Anthropic sees AI's primary beneficial use case in life sciences, aiming to make AI conversational with scientific tools. This integration could lead to significant acceleration in biology and potentially double human lifespan within the next decade. [23:57], [25:04] - **GPT-5's Math Discoveries: A Fog of War Phase**: The debate around GPT-5 solving mathematical problems highlights a 'fog of war' in AI's capabilities. While AI is making progress, distinguishing between genuine discovery and rediscovery of known solutions is an ongoing challenge. [32:37], [33:29] - **Uber's Gig Economy Shift: Training Robots for Service Tasks**: Uber's move to use drivers for microwork to train AI signals a future shift in the gig economy. This could evolve from physical tasks like driving to training robots for various service economy roles. [37:24], [37:46] - **Meta's AI Infrastructure Investment: Borrowing for Data Centers**: Meta is borrowing $27 billion to fund AI data centers, demonstrating a significant commitment to AI infrastructure. This move signals that companies on a true AI mission are willing to invest heavily, even borrowing, to achieve their goals. [51:45], [52:00] - **US Nuclear Reactor Costs Skyrocket While China's Decline**: US nuclear reactor construction costs have surged by 1000% since the 1970s, contrasting with China's declining costs. This disparity is attributed to the US halting nuclear plant construction, leading to a loss of expertise and increased regulatory overhead. [01:25:26], [01:26:44]
Topics Covered
- Can Universal Basic Services prevent civil unrest?
- Is the AI browser war really about data?
- AI will solve biology, extending human lifespan.
- Is AI replacing human knowledge creation?
- Will superclusters and Dyson swarms tile Earth with compute?
Full Transcript
OpenAI has launched a full-blown
browser. The competitive positioning
versus Google is basically all out war.
>> Today, we're going to launch Chat GPT
Atlas. This is an AI powered web browser
built around Chat GPT. We think that AI
represents like a rare once a decade
opportunity to rethink what a browser
can be about.
>> Okay, great. But Google's going to come
in and do at least this and, you know,
take back any market share they lose.
>> I don't think we should think of it as a
product. I think we should think of it
as a distribution channel for open AI's
super intelligence.
Having a local agent mode I I think is
potentially transformative.
>> If Sam wins the data aggregation race,
if he falls behind for a month or a year
in the AI race, he still has your data.
>> We're going to have an AI that is our
personal portal into everything. And I'm
not going to care what browser I use.
I'm just going to be able to have a
conversation with my AI and it will pull
up the data from wherever it is, whether
it's using super intelligence from, you
know, OpenAI or Google.
>> Now, that's a Moonshot, ladies and
gentlemen.
>> Everybody, welcome to Moonshots, another
episode of WTF Just Happen in Tech. I'm
here with my moonshot mates Dave Blondon
and AWG Alex Wemer Gross. Good morning,
gentlemen. Hey, good morning. Hey, and a
huge th shout out to the team. You know,
we were going to shoot this podcast last
night and Alex had so much material that
happened in the last three days that we
just needed to get in here. I mean,
things are changing so quickly. So,
basically, the team pulled an allnighter
last night to pull together these
stories and it's epic. So, thank you
team behind the scenes.
>> Yeah. Right now, our fourth Moonshot
mate, uh, Seem is on an airplane. Uh, I
just spent the last four days with him
here in Calamigos in Malibu for X-Prize
Visionering 2025,
which is a story I want to open up with.
Dave, I wish you were here. Alex, I wish
you were here. Uh, it was awesome. So
for those you don't know X-P prize every
year gets together uh our brain trust
and our benefactors and we debate and we
discuss what are the problems that
aren't being solved that need to be
solved or what are the challenges that
are too far out and we need to
accelerate them and bring them forward
and that's visionering. It was an
amazing uh 2 and 1/2, well really four
days in total, but two and a half days
in which we raised uh Dave, you're on my
board here at X-P Prize. Uh we raised
$3.5 million in capital last night.
>> So uh so that
>> do every night. That's a billion dollars
a year.
>> Yeah,
that would be awesome. And someday we
will.
>> Just so the audience knows the
sacrifices Peter makes to bring you all
of this information, you know. So he's
on stage all day yesterday. uh tomorrow
boards a flight to Riad. So we'll be in
Saudi. He'll be on stage the day after
that with Eric Schmidt kicking off that
event. That's 10 time zones away. So
watch the footage of him from Riad and
see see what that looks like.
>> How how wired will I be on caffeine?
>> Oh my god. It's great. But you know we
announced yesterday the uh our impact
report for X-P prize and uh the numbers
are staggering. We have massive detailed
report uh and it's we every dollar
invested in a prize we get a 60x return.
So you know milliondoll prize is driving
$60 million of R&D invested by all the
teams. They're all optimist. They all
think they can win and they're all sort
of like a Darwinian evolution to go and
solve these problems. So super pumped
about that. But I want to report you
know this is the first group to hear
about it on who won X-P prize
visionering. So we enter uh the 2 and
1/2 day program with about 20 concepts.
We have five different domains, five
different grand challenge areas and
we've got uh four concepts per. We
narrow it down to two and then down to
one which leaves us with five that enter
the uh battle royale as we call it. and
we go from five to three and then last
night uh we got down well let me just
show you the the numbers here. So X-P
prize visionering winners for 2025
uh we were expecting to just have one of
these prizes get funded to go into
development. It turned out all three of
these got funded to go into development.
Let me mention what they are because I'm
very proud of them. Uh the first prize
is called abundance and which you know
got to love the name. Uh and it was
actually two of our abundance 360
members who proposed this and raised the
capital to get this going. So what is
the abundance x-priseze? It is deliver
to a community food, water, housing,
electricity, and bandwidth for $250 a
month.
That's the goal. So everything that you
basically need and you know the
conversation last night we can talk
about this is
>> uh there's potential for a lot of civil
unrest right as people start losing jobs
as you know uh subgroups start becoming
wealthier and we've talked about this
I'm absolutely clear in the next decade
we're going to have you know
extraordinary abundance uplifting
everybody but it's this turbulent period
of the next 2 3 4 5 years that's
concerning and the idea here is if all
of a sudden moms and dads have all of
their bases covered. Um, you know, the
the basics of life for 250 bucks a
month, then they can start to think
about, okay, how do I use AI? How do I
use this technology to be an
entrepreneur to create a better life?
Any thoughts on that, Dave? Well,
especially that last fundamental of
food water shelter bandwidth
you know, if you're going to contribute
in this global revolution, I love the
fact that they added that as a
fundamental necessity.
>> Uh, you know, inside the 250 buck limit.
That's just just such a great great
idea. But that unlocks your ability to
contribute to make a living to get
educated. You know, every all education
will move to AI so you can have a you
know the healthare
>> healthcare all of that that ties to
bandwidth. So, it really is a
fundamental necessity. I love it.
>> Yeah. Alex, any thoughts?
>> Yeah, this sounds a lot like a universal
basic services concept. UBS is sort of
the symmetric duel to UBI, universal
basic income. I'm very bullish on
universal basic services in general. I I
think I I would expect it's an artifact
of a mature economy that the the cost of
living can be driven down to to near
zero as part of a sort of lifestyle
subscription and Amazon super prime if
you will.
>> Yeah. I know super excited about
>> there's a lot of studies that say that
universal basic income backfires in
terms of it causes depression, causes
alcoholism, causes drug use, but
services uh you know where you actually
get the things you need to survive still
encourages you to work and contribute on
top of the service. It's a much better
idea. But we learned in our pregame here
that that Alex doesn't even use
caffeine. So I don't know how that's
possible but
>> caffeine is a universal basic service
for sure. Uh so so this uh won the most
uh capital last night and it's going
into prize development. I'll report on
it. We'll have this team at the
abundance summit. Both of them are
abundance members. Uh and uh we'll talk
about it. The second prize uh
surprisingly that got top honors and
received enough enough capital to go
into development is a fusion XP prize.
And so here I am thinking okay there are
37 fu uh ventureback fusion companies.
There's about $10 billion invested into
fusion. What do they need a fusion prize
for? And uh amazingly and I met with uh
there were four fusion companies, you
know, four, you know, solidly funded
ongoing fusion companies as well as uh
some of the top faculty, one professor
at MIT and saying, "No, no, we need an
X-P prize to move this forward. We need
the public to understand how this
important is and how the government
needs to come in and support it." So,
uh, this one is not fully defined as a
prize, but, uh, $500,000 was committed
to develop the prize and move it
forward, uh, into potentially a prize.
Um, you know, Alex, I think you have
some feelings about this one. Yeah, I I
think fusion is is already well
capitalized, but I I would say
ultimately to the extent that the limits
of economic growth are bound by our
ability to solve fusion. I I think on
the margin it would be more helpful to
to allocate more capital toward fusion
energy sources and perhaps this helps
with that. Alex, you know, you know what
happens after this visionering phase is
the world's greatest experts on the
topic all get together, you know, in the
Peter versse and then they contribute
all their ideas and not all of them get
from there to actually being a prize,
but you learn so much about the state of
what's happening along the way. So, I
love it when a topic like Fusion gets
through this part of the funnel
regardless of how it ends up because the
amount of information we'll bring back
into the podcast on this will be just
immense.
>> You know, it's interesting. Uh the CEO
of Commonwealth Fusion, Bob Mumgardner,
um is
uh going to be with us in Riad and he's
going to be on stage with me at the
Abundance 360 Summit in March. And I was
on the phone with him getting ready for
what we're going to be doing in in Riad
next week. And he said, "Listen, I heard
that you're talking about a Fusion X-P
prize. I am so excited about that." And
so here we have the best funded, most
advanced fusion company.
Actually excited about a Fusion X-P
prize. So I'm excited to dig in further.
All right. The third prize is actually
something I love. Uh it's called Wall-E.
We'll have to be uh uh you know in
debate and discussion with with Disney
about this. But here's the prize. Dump a
machine into a garbage dump. And the
machine sorts the trash and and
generates uh you know piles of metals
and foods and paper and basically can we
take our current uh you know what do you
want to call them landfills and actually
reutilize them. So I have the way I
would actually win it but uh I don't
know I think this is a convergence of
technologies. It's going to be AI it's
going to be robotics. It's going to be
material sciences. Any thoughts, Dave?
>> Alex brought us Alex keeps bringing us
deal after deal after deal and every one
of them so far has been a winner. Um, so
it's really exciting. But, uh, Alex, you
brought us that rare earth company. You
want to talk about that? And I learned a
lot about this just studying that
company.
>> Maybe just a a broader comment on the
space. I I I think there is such a long
tale of physical world service jobs that
are ripe for automation, not just
limited to repurposing junkyards, as it
were. But I I I think if you look around
the world today, I I I often sort of
look out in the street and you can
ponder where are all the robots where
we're supposed to be living in the
future. Why haven't we seen anything
that that looks facially transformative
when you look out in the street? I I
think in the next 5 to 10 years, we will
look out onto the street and we will see
an abundance of robots and physical
automation that enables communities to
be visually transformed. Uh aesthetics
that would otherwise be out of reach for
an economy our size, as the economy
starts to grow radically, we'll start to
deploy robots everywhere for for even
the most minor tasks that would be
otherwise economically inaccessible
today. So I think this is actually just
maybe a special case of a much broader
opportunity over the next 5 to 10 years
of just deploying automation everywhere.
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before anyone else. All right, now back
to this episode. I just wanted a robot,
you know, just walking up and down the I
10 freeway, the 405, picking up the
trash on the side of the road. But the
idea that we can actually take our
landfills, which are have so many
different problems and everything from
methane production to just, you know,
disease and we're sending so much of our
trash overseas to Southeast Asia uh with
heavy metals. I mean, the idea that we
can actually use it as a feed stock um
is amazing. So, I don't want to belabor
the point. Congratulations to the teams
that won X-Prize Visionering.
Congratulations to Nusan and Shari and
the entire leadership team of X-Prise.
It was an awesome two and a half days.
Uh and we recorded a podcast which we
dropped a couple of days ago. So uh you
know we had Immodust uh and Eric Pulier
See and myself being a podcast.
Hopefully everyone listening has heard
that one. We're going to be expanding on
some of the ideas because I want to make
sure to bring in the, you know, the
brilliance and vision of AWG and Dave.
All right, let's move on. Uh, the, uh,
main course today, AI chips and data
centers as it is every day.
All right. Do you want to introduce this
video uh, Dave or or AWG?
>> Yeah. Uh, so so this is one of the
reasons we needed to get together
quickly. This is this just came out. Uh
so OpenAI has launched a full-blown
browser. Uh the functionality it won't
blow you away yet, but the positioning
the competitive positioning versus
Google is basically all out war. So I
went back and researched you know Google
launched Chrome. Chrome was not in the
world. You know it's people don't
remember this and it they leveraged
their user base to install it and now
they have two-thirds market share of
browsers and so this is people's point
of contact with information goes through
Google. They get to see everything you
do. Then later on they turned on Chrome
sync so they watch everywhere you
navigate. All that information goes back
into Google's great AI machine and
serves you ads. Brilliant and kind of
kind of scary. Uh so then OpenAI, you
know, Sam being the strategic genius
that he is says, "Okay, this is one of
those fundamental Bill Gates style
points of control we absolutely have to
play in the browser game." So, we're
going to launch the Atlas browser, and
what's going to make it better than
Chrome is it's going to learn what you
like and don't like far far better and
use our our AI advantage to serve up
better ideas. And the integration of GPT
and what you're browsing will be
completely seamless. It'll be advising
you. It'll be taking you to the next
website. It'll be curating your news all
through that integrated browser.
>> It'll be taking your data.
>> Yeah. Yeah. That too. I mean, that's
that's the key, right? You know,
>> let's watch this a short video of Sam
and his team announcing Atlas and then
we'll talk about it.
>> We're going to launch Chat GPT Atlas,
our new web browser. We think that AI
represents like a rare once a decade
opportunity to rethink what a browser
can be about and how to use one and how
to sort of most productively and
pleasantly use the web. And then there's
three special core features of Atlas
that Ryan's going to walk you through in
a bit. The first is chat comes with you
anywhere as you go on the web. The
second big feature is browser memory.
The third which we're really excited
about and uh Justin's going to show this
later is agent which is in Atlas Chatbt
now can take actions for you. It can do
things.
>> All right. So my first reaction is okay
great but Google's going to come in and
do at least this and you know take back
any market share they lose. I don't
know. Do you agree with that? Alex, what
are your thoughts? I I I think there's a
misconception that Atlas is a product. I
don't think we should think of it as a
product. I think we should think of it
as a distribution channel for OpenAI's
super intelligence. I I think all of
these products, these discrete products
are just going to dissolve over the next
few years into a uniform medium of
distribution for super intelligence. So
whether it's one browser on the desktop
versus another browser competing, I
almost think it's the wrong question.
And I think the the right question is
what form of back-end super intelligence
is being surfaced via which channels.
Browser is one, intelligent code editor
environments are another. I think robots
and and various wearable devices are
going to be another over the next few
years. And I think it's really the super
intelligence at the end of the day
that's the differentiation less the the
particular Chrome if you will that is
that that's just an embodiment of it to
deliver it to the user. And I I think
along those lines, the most interesting
for me part of the Atlas launch was the
agent mode. Uh less so the the other
features having a local agent mode I I
think is potentially transformative for
for a number of use cases and feels a
little bit more sophisticated than prior
agent launches that we've seen from
OpenAI. If you remember Operator or if
you remember the cloud-based chat GPT
agent, this one is at least partially
local.
>> So you've got you've got the the big big
guys with infinite budgets. So you've
got Google, you've got Zuck, and you've
got Elon. But then you've got the two
little startup, you know, super hyper
creative startup guys. So that's Daario
and Sam. And and so, you know, Sam,
OpenAI,
uh, is playing a very different game
from Daario. Daario is relying on
exactly what you just said. I'm going to
build a more intelligent fundamental
machine, and because it's more
intelligent, people will navigate to it
and we'll go out through corporate
channels. Then Sam is playing the old
Bill Gates game where like I'm not going
to take for granted that my AI is better
than Google's. But right now I have
twice as big an installed base as Google
does. So what can I add to protect my
position that makes me the default
choice in the case where the two AIs are
on rough par. So he gets Johnny IV to
build a device. Uh he's building his own
data centers with Broadcom and now he's
adding a browser. And so he'll add
everything that Bill Gates would have
added that's a user point of control or
an entry point into the use of AI in
order to defend that turf and encourage
more of the innovation to come through
him rather than work around him through
Google. But it's like all that warfare
all of a sudden between Google and
OpenAI and it's just really fun to
watch.
>> Dave and Alex, you know, my favorite
model for this is still Jarvis from Iron
Man, right? We're going to have an AI
that is our personal uh compatriate and
and our portal into everything. And I'm
not going to care what browser I use.
I'm just going to be able to have a
conversation with my AI and it will pull
up the data from wherever it is, whether
it's using super intelligence from, you
know, OpenAI or Google.
>> Well, the only thing I'd add to that is
that that very very soon that data will
be your personal health data, your
personal preferences, your everything
about yourself. So, and when you have
your your virtual girlfriend or
boyfriend, everything you like and don't
like in life will be in there. So, if
Sam wins the data aggregation race, if
he falls behind for a month or a year in
the AI race, he still has your data. And
that personalization might create a much
more compelling experience, allow him to
catch up again. Uh, so, you know, the
the personal data warfare is like
kicking off in a huge way right now. You
mentioned it a second ago, Peter.
>> What's what's the downside of what we
see here with Atlas? I mean, we have the
ability of OpenAI to not only look at
the data you have on your browser, but
probably every tab that you have open
and everything you have going on in your
computer. And they're not promising to
keep it confidential. Um, thoughts on
that Alex?
>> I I I I think we'll see forcing
functions for for greater forms of
confidentiality and privacy, but I'm
just reminded, do you remember the
browser wars?
>> Yeah, of course. Right. And Google
Google one with 70% market share today.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. So, so there's sort of a long
history of sleepy periods of relatively
low innovation separated by Cambrian
explosions of functionality. I I I
remember all of the browser wars and I I
think a browser war today over competing
among other factors on whose browser is
most private while also being AI
agentic. I I think that's a valid front
for competition and I welcome the
competition.
>> Amazing. Uh Alex, would you introduce
this next uh this next slide here? You
built ch a chess game. But before I play
it, explain what you built here.
>> Yeah. So, uh with with computer use
assistance, uh CUAS of which arguably
this this new chat GPT atlas agent mode
is is one example. I I have my own
emails. Um, one of my my favorite evals
for for testing these CUAs is to see
whether they can win at simple uh and or
complicated single player web games. So,
uh favorite easy example is is to see
whether I turn Atlas loose on a single
player, not not double player, single
player game of web chess and see whether
it can win. Uh, I've I've used this eval
against uh historically operator from
OpenAI. What we're seeing here is is a
time lapse uh of it just being asked I I
turned it loose on on a web chess single
player asked it to win. Uh, and
interestingly, this is the best
performance I've seen to date from a a
web-based CUA turned loose on just
sometimes I'll turn it loose on a game
of web civilization if folks are
familiar with the Civilization
franchise. But in in this case,
intriguingly, it asked for hints, which
I've never seen before. Uh, so it used
it sort of used the helpline built into
the the web game to ask for hints and
was winning at the end of the day. I I
think this is a preview. In short,
>> did it ask you for hints or did it ask
some other?
>> It asked the website for hints once it
discovered, which it did pretty quickly
that it could ask for hints. It asked
for hints and use that to win the game.
And and I I think this is a preview of
CUAS for everything, not just winning
easy games of chess.
>> Amazing. Amazing. All right, I'm going
to jump into anthropic. And this is a
conversation between Jonah Cool, who's
the head of life science partnership and
development, and Eric uh CH Cower
Abrams, who's the head of biology and
life sciences research. You know, in
January at the World Economic Forum, uh,
we heard Dario Amade, the CEO of
Anthropic, talk about one of his
passions, which is the ability of AI to
accelerate biology and longevity. And
very famously, he said, you know, if
we're able to hit the targets we have
for AI, we could see the doubling of the
human lifespan the next 5 to 10 years,
which perked everybody's ears up,
including mine. uh you know are we going
to see longevity escape velocity within
this decade? Uh increasingly the answer
is yes. Let's take a listen to uh to
Jonah and Eric have this conversation.
>> I'll start with why are we focused on
the life sciences when we talk about the
beneficial use cases of AI and all the
amazing things that we can do in the
world with the frontier AI that we're
developing. Actually the number one
place that we at anthropic are excited
about applying it is within biology in
the life sciences. Right? If you read
our foundational material that's the
primary area where we're really focused
on on delivering um the the beneficial
impact. We need claude to be conversant
with all of the tools that scientists
are using every day. Right? And so
there's a whole ecosystem of important
tools and partners out there that we are
integrating with. Right? So we talk
about benchling on the you know
experiment administration lab notebook
side of things. TEDx Genomics with Cell
Ranger, right? Incredibly important
platform for um analyzing single cell
experiments and then PubMed, for
example, for being able to query the
literature, right? And so these are just
three of a three incredibly important
partners in a much larger ecosystem. And
so that that base level is we need to um
make sure that cloud can can talk to all
the major sources that scientists are
using throughout, you know, their their
daily. We want to bring Claude to
performing at the level of a superhuman
research assistant that can assist you
as as a scientist throughout all stages
of your project. Alex,
>> I I I speak from time to time on this
pod about super intelligence solving
math, science, engineering, medicine. I
I think this is likely how biology gets
solved. I I think I was talking a moment
ago about computer use assistance, CUAS.
I I think we're entering the era of CUAS
for biology where we have baby super
intelligences that are completely fluent
and and well-versed in the tools of
computational biology and are able to
read PubMed fluently and then go and
perform experiments even. I I think this
is what solving biology with AI looks
like.
>> Yeah. You know, there's a company I just
recently invested in that I'm very
excited about. It's called LIA, L I L A.
People can look it up. It's out of MIT
and Harvard. Uh George Church is the
chief scientist. Uh uh Jeffrey Vmolson
is the CEO. And what they're doing in a
similar fashion, but I think more
advanced is they've set up these uh
science data factories, right? So they
have a a super intelligence model
they're building and these these science
data factories are basically 24/7 lights
out robotic uh you know robotic farms
looking for information out of nature.
So if you imagine the super intelligence
will come up with a scientific theorem
or you know a proposed research. They'll
program the robots to go do the research
at night, gather the data, bring it
back, check their their theory, iterate,
put the next experiment forward and
running on this 24/7 cycle to sort of
mine data out of science uh itself and
focusing on biology first and foremost,
but chemistry and material sciences. And
I love this as we're searching for new
data out there in the world to help us
understand what's going on in our 40
billion cells. You know, C, you know,
it's 5 to 10 chemical 10 5 to 10 billion
chemical reactions per second per cell.
Uh, we need to we need to be able to
reach in and get the data out to build
our models even better.
>> I I think that it as as as I I think
Peter, you might know, Jeff was a
labmate of mine when we were undergrads
at MIT. And I'm a huge evangelist for
dark labs. I I would like to see dark
labs for everything.
>> Yeah.
>> Well, and Jeffrey von Maltson, I know
it's a harder name to find on the
internet than Jonas Cool or Jonah Cool,
but uh but definitely look him up. The
guy is going to be huge. Uh you you
know, you can see it coming out and Alex
will reaffirm this, but he will be one
of the key figures cracking life
sciences. And and I'll tell you what
else. um you know we'll see later in the
pod
there there are some people saying look
we got to slow down AI we got to stop
it's not going to actually happen we're
going to move full throttle and there
are two reasons one is China the other
one is this people are not going to sit
and let people die unnecessarily from
illnesses if AI can discover solutions
to that that's not going to happen
>> so that's why the AI labs are talking
about this use case so much because it's
it's life it's preserving lives
>> yeah And uh by the way uh Jeff uh
Jeffrey Van Molton and uh and Laya will
be at the Abundance Summit. Uh super
excited for him to present our theme in
March of 26 at the summit is super
intelligence and the rise of uh humanoid
robots. So he said okay that's
definitely a subject I want to cover.
All right let's move on. Uh Wikipedia
says uh human traffic has been dropping
down 8% yearon year. less humans are
coming to Wikipedia. Uh, we can dive
into this. I'm still waiting for
Guacipedia to come online.
>> Alex, what are your thoughts here?
>> Yeah, I get asked the question a lot.
How do we incentivize humans to create
new knowledge in an era of generative
AI? And I I I suspect the question
itself is is probably faulty. I I think
knowledge gathering is likely itself to
transition to AI. I think we'll see
investigative reporting that's AI based.
So I I I I'm not losing sleep over human
traffic dropping in an era when
knowledge synthesis is abundant, but
knowledge generation by AI is not yet
abundant. I I think AI generated
knowledge is right around the corner.
>> You know, I have a Okay, Dave, I'm going
to go ahead and then I have a rant on
this.
>> All right. Well, this is this is right
in my wheelhouse, so I need to wax
poetic for a minute on this topic. So,
you know, I've been the founder of 20
direct to consumer AI companies. First
and foremost, every time someone
complains about their traffic going
down, it's going somewhere else. It's
not going away. Traffic overall traffic
is going up very very quickly. And so,
you know, I'm involved in a company I
can't name right now that's gone from
from nothing to 600 million of revenue
purely from online arrivals, 100 million
of profit on the bottom line. And so,
when when Wikipedia says, "Hey, traffic
is going down, it's going to some other
place." And the formula for getting the
traffic is is well known now. You know,
first and foremost, you need to create
huge amounts of AI generated content,
but it has to be good content, but you
also have to pay the man. You got to pay
Google. You got to pay Facebook. And if
you do that concurrently with putting
your your content out there, then
they'll give you the traffic. Also, you
need to reformat your content so it's
it's easily readable and interpretable
by the AI, hence GEO at the bottom of
the slide, generative engine
optimization. Because in the future, you
know, people do not go to Wikipedia for
their content. They just ask the AI. The
AI's got all the information, but it
still needs to be factually accurate and
correct. And so that that role, and I'm
a big Wikipedia fan, but you know, I was
at the Washington Post when it was
getting obliterated by the internet, and
it felt like, hey, we're we're important
for the country. We're we're factual. It
doesn't matter. You're going away. And
so that's what's happening. My my my
rant on this, you know, I've been trying
to update my Wikipedia page for
literally two years. I hired consultants
to update my Wikipedia page and every
time it's updated, they bring it back to
what it was. It's like so stuck 20 years
ago. And, you know, I don't know. I I
used to use Wikipedia. I don't anymore.
and the ability for an AI to actually
search the web and get consistent and
relevant and accurate information about
me. So I think maybe Graedia will be a
solution here or in fact any AI that
just says you know spin up a page on
Dave London that can send somebody u
that's going to be awesome. I
>> I'll give you one other you know pro
tip. Get a get a similar web account
similar.com get a similar web account
and you can see exactly where that user
went. the the guy that would have gone
to Wikipedia yesterday, where did he go
instead today. And so then if you track
where it's all moving, replicate that
behavior and you'll succeed.
>> Amazing. All right. Uh, next article
here is GPT5 rediscovers longforgotten
math connections. Uh, this has Alex
Wizzer Gross written all over it. Dr.
Gross, please tell us. Uh Peter, I I I
talk frequently about how super
intelligence is and will be solving
math science engineering medicine
other fields. There was a lot of hand
ringing o over the past week plus about
a specific set of math problems and
whether AI in general and GPT5
specifically was actually uncovering new
math. And I I think this this story sort
of beautifully encapsulates the fog of
war we're in right now. the the level
the water level of intelligence is
rising day by day and some of the
earliest math problems open math
problems to to be solved are I think
will will be math problems that where
the solutions were known to a subset of
humanity but not to all of humanity like
and and and we're going to ring our
hands collectively as a civilization
quite a bit over well was this open
problem in math really open or was it
solved or was it half open where some
people knew how to solve it and other
people didn't know that it had even been
solved. That that's the fog of war phase
that we're in. So I there was a lot of
discussion over the past week like was
this a real accomplishment, a real
discovery in math by AI, one of the the
Erdish problems um number 143 for
example. But there was I I think
ultimately a lot of really revealing
discussion and and commentary on on this
particular problem and also other Erdish
problems that actually this is just a
phase right now like early days we're
we're still cleaning up house as it were
in terms of understanding even which
problems are open closed or somewhere in
between and after this phase I I predict
we'll get to a phase where a lot of the
uncertainty is reduced regarding whether
a given problem is actually open or not.
>> Yeah. I think
>> open means solved, right? You mean
solved.
>> Open means unsolved. Closed means
solved.
>> I think this is also a great little case
study and how the academia world is
like, well, this proves that it didn't
really solve it. It looked up an ancient
like when you're trying to do something,
you don't care a wit how it solved it.
It came back with the right answer. This
is a lot like uh you know uh ThinkStruct
in our lab. you know it's a company that
does academic research and now patent
research using AI. So Nikki Abate and
Julius Hidekutter and it is actually
turning out to be a really good hybrid
of writing your patent application while
doing all the background research for
all prior applications and all prior
knowledge. And so those two things are
are integrated. And this is where you're
seeing AI being superhuman because
normally you'd say, "Oh, well research
of old documents is this guy, but
thinking of new things is this other
guy.
>> The AI doesn't care. It just does both."
>> I'm so excit so excited about the use of
AI in in writing up uh and submitting
patents and talk about something that is
extraordinary. But one of my most one of
my favorite applications of AIS and
patents were the following. Uh this was
a conversation with an abundance member
who was like, you know, I want to figure
out how to use these technologies on my
business. I said, well, why don't you
just ask? And so what I what I showed
her said, okay, here's, you know, here
are three patents you're interested in.
Uh put them in the browser and say, this
is my business. How would I combine
these three patents together to make a
new product or service in my business?
And oh my god, it's extraordinary,
right? This is literally a creative
engine.
>> All right.
>> Well, anyone who's a real fan of this
podcast by now has to have read
Accelerando because Alex Wisner Gross
says it's the best piece of writing in
the history of humanity. If you if you
heard that and then didn't read it,
something's wrong with you. But the very
first chapter, the opening scene is
exactly what we're talking about right
now. the the lead character makes a
living with with AI generated patent
filing.
>> Yes. Consistently and gives it away.
Anyway, let's not go there. All right.
Our next article here is Uber tests
microwork for drivers to train AI. So
Uber is paying between 50 cents to a
dollar per task that can take two to
three minutes uh and get processed
within 24 hours. So is this sort of a
digital task rabbit? What is this Dave?
Uh this is uh this is really really cool
because you know Meror is is almost you
know closing in on a billion of revenue
going all over the world g grabbing
expertise and getting it into a format
where the AI can assimilate it and then
the AI can be an expert in that topic
too. Well you got all these Uber drivers
driving around. They're sitting sitting
around a lot of the time. Do they have
knowledge that may be a contributor back
into the great AI machine? you know,
because a lot of what's missing is
physical motion, common sense, you know,
just all this information. So, you know,
why not use that same platform you've
already got to be another another
Merkore type AI data gathering machine?
>> Alex, your thoughts on this?
>> Yeah, I think this points directionally
to the future of the gig economy. The
gig economy historically was focused on
the physical world, physical tasks,
inclusive of driving other people uh to
their locations or or driving food to a
person's location. I I think this points
toward a near future where training
robots to perform service economy tasks
is the new deacto gig economy.
>> Yeah. So fascinating that Uber turned
this way. it, you know, it's all about
the relationships it has, right? It has
a relationship with a large number of
people that it knows wants to earn money
on the margin. Uh, and we'll probably
see other companies follow suit as well.
>> Well, you know, during co, you know, got
annihilated and Uber did fine because
they had launched Uber Eats. Uh so
they're you know they're very very
thoughtful about this you know in fact
when when I don't know if you remember
Travis Colick when Uber was going public
but he got on stage and he said Uber is
not a ride sharing hailing cab company
we're a internet fabric it was some some
like really ethereal but now they're
actually doing it it makes sense in in
hindsight so they don't view their
platform as being about cars and rides
they view it about like
>> we're going to spend time with Dra the
CEO of Uber he's going to
on stage with us at the abundance
relationship with DAR. We'll talk about
what he's doing in the data side, but
also you know they're now partnered with
Whimo. Uh you can in certain places hire
a Whimo through Uber and they're you
know they're hooking up I think with
Joby on the you know flying cars let's
call it that for the moment. So Uber's
been an incredible platform for
experimentation and sort of integration
of various exponential technologies.
>> So that'll be fun.
>> All right,
>> Alex, I'm going to turn to you on this
one. Deepseek is packing text into
images. Uh talk about this, pal. What's
this significant uh transformation,
isn't it?
>> Yeah, this is a major advance from from
Deepseek. So a new model that Deepseek
announced, Deepseek OCR. Uh so maybe a
bit of background first. Foundation
models, frontier models like GPT aren't
thought to perceive text in the way that
humans perceive text. Humans look at
text on a page and we see text visually.
The frontier models, the foundation
models, most of them are are believed to
to still consume text in the form of
chunks of letters called tokens. and
they don't perceive have any based on
publicly available information any
visual perception of letters on a page.
So they don't visually see the shape of
a character or formatting or desktop
publishing type layout on a page. They
perceive none of that. They perceive at
best maybe like HTML formatting
instructions. So I I think DeepSk OCR,
which is I again if you squint at at the
the model architecture, it's it's sort
of an autoenccoder that that does
optical character recognition after a
fashion, but in a really in a really
interesting way. It it consumes raw
images of entire pages and encodes those
as image tokens, not as text tokens, and
then tries to decode those image tokens
into text tokens. So a few things fall
out of this. One, optical character
recognition at at high accuracy rates,
which is pretty incredible. But
secondly, this is able to perceive
formatting at the way humans do. And I I
I think the the practical upshot of this
would be better grounding. Like wouldn't
it be wonderful if we could have desktop
publishing type formatting of outputs
from from Frontier models with beautiful
layouts? I I would expect that to fall
out for free or better understanding of
mathematical equations that are
dependent on the way the equations are
written and how they appear visually. I
think better understanding of fonts, all
of these I expect eventually to fall out
of this line of research.
>> Interesting. And we're going to be
seeing an article later about Amazon
getting into the AR uh glass
marketplace. And we're going to see from
Meta and Google and probably Open AI and
all of them were transforming, you know,
from a from a phone as the medium of
interface to glasses at this medium
interface. So, uh I'm assuming that this
kind of technology is going to help your
your glass effectively translate
everything you're seeing into something
it can be uh understood, read, and uh
responded to. I I think that that's
table stakes. Uh so yes to that, but
also having AI that understands at a
visual level all the text, I I think
that is is going to be quite
transformative.
>> Dave, you want to comment on this?
>> Well, I'm still blown away that when I'm
if I'm writing code in cursor or winerf
and I take a screenshot and say, "Hey,
there's a bug in here somewhere. It's an
image. It's not text." And I just slap
that right back into cursor. it it has
no problem with it at all. Now I know
under the covers it's not doing this.
It's actually converting it to text and
then moving forward from there. So this
will put the AI engine much more in tune
with human with human thinking because
you're using the same exact pixel by
pixel interface that we use with our
eyeballs for everything whether it's
text or images or whatever. So it'll
it'll be a big advantage in multimodal.
But what works already is just
mind-blowing to me. Do you expect, Alex,
that we're going to see this type of OCR
uh come into all the models next?
>> Yeah, I I think we're moving towards a
near future with universal tokens, that
tokens that span modalities. And I I I
I've long thought, wouldn't it be
wonderful aspirationally if if we had
just a single modality that everything
else flowed through? So rather than
having a text modality and images and
audio and video, if we just had maybe
like a single universal maybe video
style modality that everything else
flowed through, it it might have certain
benefits. You know what's really
interesting about that, Alex, is that
that that's happening and it puts the
models much more in touch with humans
and at the same time it's going the
other direction in in very specific
domains like you know magnetic bottles
and and you know quantum computing where
the knowledge is so far out of the human
domain that you want completely
different data representations at the
front end of the funnel. And so these
these first models are going to use the
second models as tools. It's It's really
cool to watch the two kind of spread
apart and and think about how they're
going to end up interacting.
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>> All right, let's jump into our next
article here. This is OpenAI hires
bankers to automate junior work. So
OpenAI has hired over 100 bankers paying
them 150 bucks an hour to train AIS on
M&A, LBOs, IPOs. Effectively, uh these
bankers are in one sort of the way
traders helping to eliminate jobs of
fellow bankers. So I don't know my first
take on this is open AI is basically
eliminating what I would have imagined
an entrepreneurial startup would do. I
imagine lots of startups are looking to
do this and this is sort of a shot over
the bow. Well, you know is open a going
to do this for every field. Um you know
get rid of white collar work across the
board. Um and well the answer to that is
absolutely yes. They're going to do this
for every field and they're going to do
it quickly. And I just had this
conversation with two of our companies.
Make sure that you're the guy that Sam
calls and they're they're like, "Well,
Sam's not going to Sam's not going to
call me." Like, why would Sam call me?
They said, "Okay, eliminate everybody
else. He's not going to call State
Street Bank. He's not going to call like
he doesn't want to talk to big legacy
bloated entities." All right? And he's
also not likely to call two 22 year olds
out of Y Cominator who haven't even
gotten to market yet. So if you're
somewhere between those two things,
you're you're just need to position
yourself like Brendan Foody did at
Merkore, get into the building and be
the person that solves that problem for
open AI. But yes is the answer. He'll do
this in absolutely every category of
human endeavor.
>> So I would imagine this kind of a
vertical would be something an
entrepreneur would say, okay, we're
going to go and do this ourselves for
whatever field. But uh again, we talked
about this when we were up with Kevin
Kevin Will that is open AI going to be
moving into and eliminating all the
entrepreneurial vertical channels? Um I
find this fascinating.
>> Yeah, I go ahead.
>> I I I think that the sort of the
superficial story is that this is what
the end of so-called white collar work
looks like. vertical by vertical, labor
category by labor category. Each
existing form of the service economy,
each manifestation of it gets digested
and and turned into AI automation. But I
I think that creates enormous
entrepreneurial opportunities for for
everyone. There are thousands if not
tens of thousands of labor categories
with domain specific knowledge that will
require automation. Same with industry
subverticals. And every platform company
always instills maybe a modicum of fear
in other companies. Oh well, the
platform will just absorb what I'm I'm
doing and we'll we'll lose our footing.
But I I don't think that's an accurate
representation of of the real economy
where there is just tens of trillions of
dollars of service economy labor that
can be automated. And I I do not expect
a singleton scenario where any one
company or any one platform or any one
model just consumes the entire economy.
We'll have I think a completely
heterogeneous economy indefinitely into
the future.
>> So bottom line here is that this effort
by OpenAI could eliminate between a
quarter and half of the junior headcount
across Wall Street within two years.
>> All right. Uh moving on. Uh I love this
article. So Google is prepping Genie 3
for public experiments. So uh Genie 3 is
going to let users create interactive
worlds with text prompts. We talked
about this um extraordinarily powerful.
This is this is persistent and uh
consistent worlds that are generated
from a text prompt that are
photorealistic
that uh you can get into and you can use
for a variety of different uh of
different areas. Um, Alex, do you want
to jump in? Well,
>> first of all, you have to admire that
the user interface, which we're now
seeing previews of, looks identical
almost to the grid of the Holodc in Star
Trek.
>> Yes, I love that.
>> Have to admire that that we're catching
up with the future. It's very exciting.
A level deeper though, I I I do think
world models, so-called right now, are
going to merge with the foundation
models. I I think this is very likely to
be an instrumental element of general
purpose generalist foundation models and
frontier models that you'll not just be
able to have textbased conversations
with them or audio-based conversations.
They'll create entire worlds that you'll
be able to walk around on the one hand.
That's the consumer use case. And the
enterprise use case is these world
models that are fully interactive will
enable us to create new inventions,
create new products. it this is the mode
through which AI understands and will
understand the physical world and be
able to create economically
transformative inventions. It's the
democratization of interactive content
creation, right? Uh at a level of
reality and resolution that is shocking.
Just to hit on on some of the ideas,
right, for the individual, if you're
thinking about this, how would I use it?
Uh you can build personalized gaming,
it's creative storytelling, it's
customized education. Uh for companies,
I think a lot of companies could be
using this for game development, uh for
education tech. I I personally think the
most extraordinary way to educate and
learn about something is to dive into
that world. I've used this example so
many times. If you want to learn Greek
history, you can read a very dry
textbook. You can even watch a movie.
But imagine being able to drop into
ancient Greece. You see a guy in a toga
on a chunk of marble and you walk over
and he says, "Hey, I'm Socrates. Let's
go for a walk. Let me show you around.
Meet my friends."
That kind of immersive experience is the
future of education uh without for me
any question at all. Dave,
>> well, just not to disappoint everybody,
but this is going to be another one of
those things that everybody instantly
loves. uh just like deep research. If
you've tried using Gemini deep research
lately, you'll sit there for like 10 15
minutes unnecessarily and then it'll
give you something great back, but it's
just enough to frustrate the hell out of
you. It's entirely
>> more GPUs.
>> More GPUs, man. Keep tiling cuz people
are going to love it. It's incredible.
And unless you buy your own Nvidia box,
you're not going to be able to get the
speed you want. All right, our next
article here is Meta borrows $27 billion
to build an AI data center. So Meta SPV
is borrowing this money at 6.8% to fund
a multi-gawatt le Louisiana data center.
Dave, you had some thoughts on this one.
>> Yeah, absolutely. So, so Mark Zuckerberg
has taken every penny of cash flow uh
from one of the biggest tech companies
in the planet, you know, from Meta,
Facebook, and pumped it all into this AI
initiative uh and now is borrowing, you
know, going to the next level. And the
market, stock market loves it. So, what
does that tell you as a CEO? Like, if if
you're a true AI company on a and on a
true AI mission, you can invest like
crazy from your public capital or from
your from your venture capitalists. uh
and they love it because they see the
the future is is here. But it's I don't
think it's probably unprecedented in
history for a company that used to be an
absolute bottomline cash cow producing
huge amounts of EBIT to take every penny
of it and then more then borrow even
more to pump it into an initiative.
>> I mean Mark has said over and over again
he will do whatever he needs to get to
digital super intelligence first.
>> It's like his is his war cry. Alex,
>> I I I think it's also worth adding the
credit markets are just as interested in
financing this project, call it tiling
the earth with compute, as the equity
markets. Uh, and the the fixed
income/credit/
debt markets are enormous. And I I I
think we're we're starting to see this
financial model where the lower half of
the AI infra stack is being funded by
credit as we're seeing here. And then
the the upper half where the the models
and the applications live is being
funded by equity. So so we're we're
seeing sort of a whole of economy
financing model emerge for this full AI
infrastruct.
>> It's you know the implications of this
though is capital from public equities
from sovereigns from debt all flowing
into AI at the exclusion of so many
other technology areas. Well, one of our
best partners, uh, Kush Pavaria,
phenomenal guy, uh, just co-founded a
company called ORN.
Uh, yeah, check it out. But my point in
in this is that people that are kind of
technical and engineering wouldn't
normally get into the finance side of
things. But, but, you know, kind of like
Chase Lock Miller, they're getting drawn
into this in a big way. And it's a very
very good strategic move. If you if you
have any interest in finance whatsoever
and you understand GPUs, chips, data
centers or just math, uh it's a great
direction to go. It's just a huge amount
of capital, you know, redirecting into
this direction and and and you know,
making it move intelligently, the right
investments, the right locations, that's
not a trivial problem at all. So, if you
have an engineering mindset and you're
interested in this area, you can really
do well.
>> Yeah. Amazing. Okay. On the data center
world, here's the uh news from Oracle.
Oracle is planning a 16 Zetaflop AI
supercomputer. We don't talk about
Zetaflops all that often. So, it's
announced a nextgen cloud computer
designed scaling to 800,000 GPUs. You
know, is Zetaflop here? Is Zetaflop
there? All right, I'm going to feed Alex
on this one. I can't wait to hear what
he has to say. But I remember on that
podcast a couple months ago, we were
talking about uh the 10 E26 models. So
they, you know, E26, that's that's the
regulatory definition of a AGI super
intelligent register it with the
government type thing. So that's one
E26.
>> Uh, a Zaflop is what 1E21.
So that's per second though. That's, you
know, that's that many flops per second.
>> So we're talking about an exponent of
>> Yes. Go ahead.
>> Yeah. So So to get from, you know, 10 16
to 10 21, you need you need five more.
So that's 100,000. So every 100,000
>> those are orders of magnitude just to
translate
>> five more. Five more. So 100,000x. So so
every 100,000 seconds a one zetaflop
computer can create a foundation
frontier level AI model every 100,000
seconds. So 100,000 seconds is 1.1 days
as it turns out. So every day you get a
new foundation and that's at one zoflap.
This is 16 zeta flops. So 16 times a day
you build a foundation frontier level
model. Does that sound right, Alex? Did
I get any of that wrong? I'm doing
>> I need to double check, but it sounds
approximately right.
>> I I I I would add. So uh Oracle is uh
this is all in the public reporting.
Oracle is both financing and operating
Stargate Abolene. And Stargate Abene is
I I think uh together with this 16
Zetaflop super cluster. It is emblematic
of a new form factor for computing. The
the personal computer was a major new
form factor. The smartphone was arguably
a major new form factor. These
superclusters with approximately a
million GPUs and tens of zeta flops.
This is a fundamentally new form factor
for computing with high-speed
interconnect which we're not talking
about but which is arguably just as
important as the raw compute power being
a key architectural innovation and it's
not going to stop with Stargate
Appaline. Th this form factor again in
in the spirit of tiling the earth with
compute we are unless something radical
changes we are going to tile the earth
and and maybe near-earth solar system
with this type of new form factor of
computer.
>> Incredible. All right. Uh continuing on
this conversation anthropic uh to expand
to 1 million TPUs on Google cloud. So
their goal is to bring this compute
online by 2026.
Uh there's a I think there's a a very
loving relationship between Google and
Anthropic. Anthropic is sort of the
little brother there and they're growing
closer and closer. Alex, what do you
make of this?
>> Well, I I I I I want to say something a
little bit glib per perhaps, which is
that when you have when you have super
intelligence that's incredibly thirsty
for compute, it makes for some
interesting combinations in in the
market. I I think the the the thirst for
compute is is creating enormous pressure
on the frontier labs to diversify their
infrastruct. So we're seeing Nvidia GPUs
up against Google TPUs up against Amazon
traniums up against AS6 including
Frontier Lab specific AS6. I think these
are all in the mix. So for for those who
are worried about some sort of
architectural monopoly or singleton
where only one GPU or accelerated
compute architecture completely
dominates the market. I I think this is
a healthful dose of both diversity and
reality that now actually we're seeing
heterogeneous architectural combinations
at multiple levels of the stack. The the
future light cone of compute
architectures is not going to be
dominated by any single company. Alex,
for those who don't know the difference
between TPUs and GPUs, would you uh give
us a 101 here?
>> GPUs, this is branding that was
popularized by Nvidia. So, graphics
processing unit. This was originally
conceived and went to market for
accelerating video games where Nvidia
was the arguably the the chief actor for
accelerating compute specifically for
video game purposes and professional
graphics as well. Then eventually it
found its way to Bitcoin and other
crypto minings. And then fortunately the
need and the thirst for for accelerated
compute for AI arrived just in time to
uh to sort of recover from a bit of a
mini crypto winter and step in.
Meanwhile, TPUs, tensor processing
units, this is a a term from Google, but
the the underlying architecture is
pretty similar to uh to the way GPUs
from Nvidia and other firms handle AI
operations. the the t the tensor refers
is is a reference to this idea that the
central operation that they need to
perform in support of AI and machine
learning is taking large matrices which
if generalized become tensors sort of
highdimensional matri matrices of of
numbers and multiplying and adding them.
Uh so that that's sort of the to to
oversimplify that that is the core
operation of accelerated compute for
machine learning just taking matrices of
numbers and multiplying them.
>> That's a great point.
>> Appreciate that. Uh we talked about this
on the podcast we recorded at
Visionering uh a few days ago. Hopefully
you enjoyed that episode. But I wanted
to bring Alex and Dave into the
conversation here. Uh this is StarCloud
bringing data centers to space. I'm
going to play a short video from Philip
Johnston. Actually, Philip, who's the
co-founder and CEO of StarCloud Cloud,
was here with me for the last few days.
So, it was fun to see uh his points of
view. Let's play the video and we'll
talk about it afterwards.
>> The reason we're building data centers
in space is mainly for the energy that
we can draw from solar energy in space.
So, there's almost unlimited access to
abundant solar energy in space. The
problem on Earth is we're very quickly
running out of space and actually energy
on Earth to build large data centers. In
space, we can have these enormous solar
panels um which can power these data
centers. And then another advantage is
we can then run large radiators to
dissipate that heat and infrared out
into the the vacuum of space. So, it's
interesting. Uh, Philip Johnson was on
stage pitching, uh, a prize called, uh,
you know, the spa, uh, let's see, the
space cool X-P prize. It was something
like that. And basically, one of the
challenges they still have is radiative
cooling. Uh, space is very cold, but
there's no there's very little uh, you
know uh
atoms to carry the heat away. So, you're
focused on infrared radiative cooling,
which is a challenge. So, I'm so
curious, Alex, what do you make of this?
Is this the future, or is this something
that isn't going to happen?
>> Well, I I think at at the heart of this
is what I would argue is one of the most
important civilizational questions that
we face. We don't know the answer, but
the the question is, does a mature
intelligent civilization build a Dyson
swarm or not? Dyson swarm. swarm,
meaning taking apart the planets in our
solar system to to build lots of
computers that orbit the sun. I don't
know the answer. I I suspect the answer
will depend on physics discoveries that
haven't happened yet. And just jumping
out a few decades, play playing this
tape forward as it were, playing the
recording forward. I I think if humanity
ends up being permanently latency
constrained, we're probably going to do
it. that this this probably then is the
beginning of the construction of a Dyson
swarm. On the other hand, if if physics
make it ergonomic to easily travel to
other star systems, presumably with
physics that that we're not aware of
yet, then I I could imagine scenarios
where actually building a Dyson swarm,
you know, turning StarCloud and and and
other orbital computing platforms into a
fullon Dyson swarm probably doesn't make
that much sense. One could also imagine
other contingencies. Maybe the demand as
unconscionable as it is right now. That
demand for accelerated compute might
peak at some point in the future if that
ever happens. I could also imagine we
don't build the Dyson swarm. Otherwise,
I I think just straight shot uh this is
the beginning of a a long-term trend.
Mark this point in time. We're at the
beginning unless something changes of
the construction of a Dyson swarm.
>> Yeah. Just to clue folks in uh Dyson's
form of the terminology comes from Dr.
Freeman Dyson who was at Institute for
Advanced Studies at Princeton who
basically said as you become an advanced
civilization you're going to want to
capture all of the energy coming out of
your star. So you'll dismantle your
solar system and you'll basically build
a shell around the star that captures
all of it. Um this is the earliest days.
So, you know, I just want to point out,
I had this conversation with Philip. You
know, we have 8,000 times more energy
that hits the surface of the Earth today
than we consume as a species. And the
challenge is, can we build the square
meterage of solar and uh and dissipation
arrays in space? You know, there's going
to be a lot of robotics required to do
that. And when do we get there? um you
know is it 10 years from now 20 years
from now uh we're going to find out.
Along these lines uh we saw Caruso uh
you know basically announce that they
plan to support this by 2027. Uh and I'm
not exactly sure what they mean by
supporting it. They're going to put an
H100 uh up in space and H100 in space
represents 100 times more compute than
any other satellite has had. But it's
it's a single H100. It's not a uh uh
it's not a cloud, not a Cruso cloud.
Alex, did you dig into this further?
>> Yeah, I I would maybe also just comment
on time scales. So putting a single H100
in low Earth orbit or LEO may not sound
like that much now, but I if if you just
starting from from physics, like if if
we have this notion that we know or at
least have a prediction that the end
state of all of this is taking apart our
solar system, you could actually just do
a few calculations to figure out the
time scale for when that would happen.
So, one of my favorite statistics, if
you ask like if if we could completely
encircle the sun with solar collectors,
capture all of its luminosity and
channel all of that that power to say
unbinding Jupiter. Basically
disassembling Jupiter. Jupiter's created
it its own gravity well. So, uh so we
the the term of art would be unbinding
it from its own gravity. it would only
take approximately two centuries if we c
captured all the the light from the sun
to disassemble or unbind Jupiter. So I I
I view you know one H100 going into
space in in the next couple of years.
This is the the first step in a
potentially a a two century journey to
to deploy compute at scale in our solar
system. And I think
>> exponential growth double something 30
times you get a billionfold increase.
Dave, what are your thoughts on this?
>> Well, Peter, you said, you know, that
the sunlight hitting the Earth every day
is 8,000 times more energy than we
consume. But have you ever done the math
on the fraction of all the sun's energy
that hits the Earth in the first place?
>> Oh, yeah. It's it's it's a you know, far
far less. It's a fraction of 1%.
>> Yeah, I know. I don't know how many
decimal points are in there, but it's
like there's a monster amount of energy
in that that Dyson sphere, Dyson swarm
view. Uh so yeah it's it's you know 200
years sure why not. Um what's
interesting in the short term this could
be a great idea or a terrible idea for
Cruso and it depends entirely on the
timeline diffusion which we're about to
talk about.
>> Uh so so that's an interesting factor in
all this.
>> It's worth pointing out while the term
StarCloud sounds like it's got Musk
behind it uh Elon is not involved in
this. uh he did retweet uh the StarCloud
announcement, but uh you know I I love
Elon. He's incredibly brilliant, but at
the end of the day, if he were to take
this on, he would probably do it on his
own. Uh that's my experience. All right.
Uh moving forward. Uh okay, now on to
Elon here. So Elon says the A15 chip uh
by some metrics will be 40 times better
than A14. We deleted the legacy GPU.
It's basically a GPU. I poured so much
life energy into this personally. It'll
be a real winner. So, you know, we've
seen this before where Elon goes heads
down and focuses on a very specific
element, you know, all the way down to
the engineers, scientists, the
production line.
Alex, you've been tracking this. What
does the A15 mean for, you know, for
Tesla, for Optimus, for XAI? the the uh
so I've spoken in in the pod on the pod
in the past about this notion that super
intelligence is not going to stay just
bottled up in the data centers. It is I
I've argued in past it is literally
going to walk out the doors of the data
centers in in humanoid robotic form in
in driverless car form. I I think what's
most intriguing about the AI5
architecture is it's a unified
architecture that this is a this is a
single accelerator that is planned for
use both in the data center side and in
the robotic/car side single chip which
is this is something new that that the
world hasn't seen before a single
unified architecture for both cloud data
center compute and also embodied in
robots and cars and so I I I think this
is quite literally potential eventually
the embodiment of intelligence walking
out the door of the data center into
into our homes and into our lives.
>> Well, and this ties back to our last
story, too. Uh, you know, all the big
guys now have their own chips as Sam
announced in our last podcast that that
he has uh his own Broadcom custom
designs. So, Enthropic is the one
exception. And so, they're going to
adopt the Google TPUs. that was in that
other slide. But that's not a very
comfortable place to be if all the other
competitors have their own chip designs
and they're as they're modifying their
algorithms. They're tweaking the AI is
tweaking the chip design. So once you're
in bed with Samsung or TSMC or Intel and
you have your whole supply chain going
right into your own data centers, you
can innovate innovate redesign the chip
and get it back into production very
very quickly. You know, Google's already
got that cycle down cycle time way down.
So it leaves Anthropic in kind of this
uncomfortable position where well we're
buddying up with Google. Yeah, but
you're on their TPUs. They're going to
give you whatever they want to give you.
>> Fascinating. But all of this comes back
to TCMC production capability, right? In
Sam in Samsung, there are basically
choke points. Uh
>> yeah, there's no doubt that any one of
these companies would be buying TSMC,
Intel or Samsung tomorrow if the
regulators would let it happen because
because that's the choke point and they
all know it. So all these really, you
know, high level partnerships and
relationships are really really forming
and it's a very competitive playing
field
>> you know week by week we're seeing the
the shifting relationships and uh in
capital flow here. All right, this next
article comes from Amazon and their new
delivery glasses. Let's take a look at
the video here and then talk about the
implications for this. It's fascinating
what this means for uh for labor.
>> Well, check out these nerdy smart
glasses. These are smart glasses
developed by Amazon for their delivery
drivers. So, they're just in development
now, but basically they use technology
to uh like a head-up display, show you
what you need to do. So in this case,
instead of using your mobile phone as a
driver to scan the parcels, you simply
look at them and work out which parcel
needs to go where. But then when you
head out to deliver, it gives you actual
information about the place you're
delivering. It give you warning about
dogs and things and shows you exactly
where to leave it. And it's all done.
Even the photos are taken and you never
need to use the mobile phone. So cool
technology, very much like Meta's Ray-B
bands or maybe Apple Vision from Amazon.
>> Okay, so this is what I think is going
on. It's this is put forward as we're
going to help our drivers you know keep
them away from you know barking dogs and
help them you know do this with
hands-free delivery. I think this is a
mechanism by which Amazon uses the
drivers to collect a lot of information
to train their delivery robots. This is
just like uh like Tesla uh with its
cameras training its its full you know
self-driving models. Dave, what do you
think?
>> Yeah, you're exactly right. And and it
shows you how the technologies interact,
too, because the glasses will be
profitable instantaneously within their
internal use case. They can perfect them
and then they can decide later. You
remember there was a Kindle phone,
Kindle Fire phone. It didn't succeed,
but they they've tried before to compete
with Apple and and anthrop or or Android
in the device warfare, you know, game.
So this is a great stepping stone for
them to make money and perfect the
device while gathering all the data
which will then feed their robotics
initiative but also the consumer glasses
initiative which will come later. So
you're you're exactly right.
>> Yeah. Do you want to add anything Alex?
>> I'll just add I I think this
functionality can generalize well to
non-dely functions as well. I think this
is the tip of the iceberg for for using
wearables to automate and even before we
get to automation to capture telemetry
and training data for the entire
services economy. So I I think that this
we're going to see this across many many
other verticals, healthcare, energy,
hospitality. Expect smart glasses and
wearables for building training data
sets and post-training data sets across
every possible
>> also construction. Construction, you
know, we're doing the biggest
construction buildout in the history of
of America and certainly probably the
world and it's all, you know,
electricity and plumbing and buildings
and everything. But because those are AI
forward projects like you know Chase
Lock Miller at Cruso and and Project
Stargate they're going to be early
adopters of exactly the same thing
you're talking about for construction.
So that'll that'll be and construction
is a huge fraction of the global
economy. Uh so that'll be a really fun
>> and for me this the most important thing
for me uh for a aging population is
going to be memory augmentation right
using these glasses to remember you know
who you're talking to the last
conversation you had I mean personally I
can't wait I meet so many people and I
love being able to you know remember the
details but sometimes it's just a
challenge. All right, we're going to go
into a subject we covered on the last
pod with Emod in particular and Eric
Bolier, but I cannot wait to hear the
take that Alex you have on this and Dave
you have. It's again this is Google's
quantum breakthrough nears realworld
use. So this is the Willow quantum chip.
Uh a friend in Santa Barbara Hartmoot
Nevin who heads the Google quantum team.
Congratulations.
Uh but at the end of the day, Alex, what
does this mean? Well, f first maybe a
little bit of the background. So, I read
the the core nature paper behind this
announcement. Very interesting. Uh this
was the the Google team.
>> And by the way, Alex, I have to say I
really appreciate the fact that you dig
in
>> on everyone's podcast to go and read the
actual science, you know.
>> Well, it's difficult to comment on it if
I haven't read it, but thank you.
>> I understand that.
>> Well, everybody else on the planet is
commenting on it without reading it.
You're the only one doing it. And I
>> I've heard I've seen these I've seen
these uh these comments in uh on YouTube
that Alex is an AI. I've seen him
glitch. Uh you know, God knows.
>> We want to use this as our cold open.
>> I'm not going to I'm not going to
disclose any any details. Uh but maybe
we'll see you in live. Anyway, dive in
please. You read the paper. What does it
say?
>> Right. So, so uh I I read the core
nature paper behind this announcement.
It's very interesting. The the the
premise is that there's a a certain
physical quantity and in the case of of
this announcement, it's called a second
order out of time order correlation. And
it this is basically a measure of
quantum chaos. It it measures how
chaotic a given quantum system is. and
and the Google and collaborator team
showed that it would be very challenging
for a classical computer, which was to
say a nonquantum computer, to be able to
to compute it. So, I I think it's it's
very interesting. It's nice progress in
terms of demonstrating quantum speedups
or quantum advantages versus classical
computers. What I'm still waiting for
though, I if if I got my wish, is a more
call it economically transformative
quantum algorithm. What I'm waiting for,
what I'm hoping for is that sometime in
the next few years, we will achieve a
definitive breakthrough speed up for
quantum acceleration of AI. I I think
applications like this where there are
applications in quantum simulation,
quantum chemistry, simulating materials,
optimizing molecules, I think it's
great. I don't think it is necessarily
worldchanging. And the the worldchanging
use case for for quantum acceleration if
if the physics of our universe are so
kind as to allow them would be I think
something like being able to achieve
orders of magnitude speed up in training
or inference for a frontier model. I
think that would be utterly
game-changing. Amazing. The term quantum
advantage was coined a few years ago as
the point in which a quantum computer
demonstrates the ability to do a real
world thing better than any classical
computer, right? With ones and zeros.
And so people have been chasing this
idea of a quantum advantage really to
rationalize the massive investments and
to actually get traction. Uh now we have
a number of public quantum companies and
you know wanting to get revenues. Uh I
think one of the other important things
to note here is uh the concept of error
rates in quantum computers. Um and uh
how do we get to logical cubits and how
do we reduce the error rate so we
actually uh have something that's going
to be useful. But let me ask you a
different question here Alex. How big is
quantum computation as compared to AI?
How big a a you know relative is it
larger many times larger what are your
thoughts? Well, I I want to answer I I
want to bisect the question into
nowshortterm versus long-term at the
moment and in the short term the the
actual applications are relatively
pedestrian prosaic not economically
transformative. the the the best
applications I I think that that I've
seen anywhere close to to being useful
in the short term are for quantum
simulation leveraging the fact that it's
relatively straightforward as Richard
Fineman who are arguably helped to to
create the entire field of quantum
computing pointed out you can use one
quantum system to simulate another
quantum system relatively easily. I but
these aren't economically transformative
not in the same way as AI that is just
turning our service economy as we were
discussing earlier and just automating
it. Quantum doesn't have that capability
in the short term. In the long term I
would hope quantum will enable us to to
build much faster AI systems. So in the
long term holding out hope that quantum
in the end there's almost an angle
you'll forgive me for this. There's
almost a redemption arc that I'm hoping
for of quantum information systems
because so many of the problems right
now that AI is is solving grand
challenges like protein folding. Do do
you remember 10 20 years ago there was a
sizable community that thought protein
folding would require quantum computers
to solve. That did not happen. We were
able to solve it with just AI on top of
classical computing. So there's there
there's almost a who moved my cheese
angle to to the the sense like the the
the grand challenges that quantum was
supposed to be the the the great white
knight and solve for us keep getting
devoured by AI instead. I I'd love to
see a bit of turnaround sometime in the
next 10 years on
>> fascinating my my favorite science
fiction books all have uh digital super
intelligent AIs conscious AIs uh doing
so on the backs of quantum clusters. So
>> there would be certain advantages like
>> yeah go ahead.
>> So potential advantages like energy
efficiency if if we could build a fully
reversible AI supercomput that that
would are probably be have some sort of
quantum coherent foundation that would
be transformative. We wouldn't need to
we wouldn't need to to build all these
SMRs and uh and vision plants and NATG
gas collocation facilities if if we had
fully reversible quantum computer based
foundation models everywhere. But we're
not there yet.
>> Nice. Uh Dave, let's go to the next
article here and I'd love your your
thoughts on it. Uh which is that
President Trump eyes equity into US
quantum firms. So, you know, this is the
potential beginning of a sovereign style
VC fund for the United States. Uh, he's
targeted IMQ, Regetti, D-Wave, Quantum
Computing Inc., and Atom Computing. Uh,
I mentioned uh on the last pod when we
talked about this that I had taken
D-Wave public through a uh spa um huge,
you know, 8,000x return from the
earliest uh lowest point to where it is
today. Uh Dave, thoughts on this?
>> Yeah. Well, I I love it and I hate it as
a president, but I still love it because
Alex is always pointing out that what
we're what we're doing right now is
unprecedented, except maybe during the
buildup to World War II. And you think
about 1939, we're basically flying
biplanes in the US Air Force. By the end
of 5 years later, we have we have jets.
>> Uh so just incredible amount of
government investment. Yeah. So that's
what's going on right now in AI, and
it's great. It's what we need. So now
that's moving into quantum too. And
you've made the point many times Peter
that our our fun our economy doesn't
function well in these areas that
require you to think more than 5 or 10
years in the future. China works really
well thinking 10 20 30 years in the
future but we don't do that well. So the
government kickstarting quantum is a
great move uh if you believe in it 5 10
15 years in the future. Uh but as a
precedent for government involvement in
the economy, it's terrible. You know,
it's cuz cuz they're going to make
terrible decisions in the long run.
These are very good decisions in the
short run, but that's because all this
incredible talent has gone to Washington
for the first time in my lifetime. But,
you know, that's not sustainable. And
so, I hate it as
>> we see and we see the government
investment triggering huge amounts of
private investment that follow on,
right? So, after the Intel deal, you
know, Intel stock doubled between $20 a
share before and 40 bucks a share, you
know, a day or two ago. Uh, and we're
seeing this again, a 10 to 15% increase
in these quantum stocks after this, uh,
the story got leaked.
>> I wonder where they're going to go next
when they go, you know, I think the
government's be going going into rare
earth metals. We've seen some of that
conversation. Where else might they be
making uh sort of strategic investments?
Well, I I hope they take that, you know,
Alex's World War II analogy and and stay
focused on the things we need in this
very specific race uh to AGI and ASI.
>> So, Rare Earth would fit for sure and
and energy would fit for sure. Quantum
may or may not
>> I'm kind of I'm kind of shocked that the
government hasn't made a move to get
into the fusion companies or the SMR
companies uh really to help accelerate
that because I think that one thing uh
would bring a lot more capital. I mean,
Commonwealth Fusion um is probably the
best funded. You know, I was talking to
some of the fusion companies here at
Visionering and talking about Helion. Uh
interestingly, they said, you know,
Helion is so closed lip. We have
actually no idea what they're doing and
how far they're they're along. You know,
there's public disclosure, some
information. They're claiming 2028
Microsoft, but we don't actually know.
And these were from the top fusion
experts. Uh Commonwealth Fusion, you
know, targeting 2030, but they still
have a lot more development. Alex, do
you have any thoughts on that? Yeah, I'm
not going to second guessess the
commerce department or the executive,
but there is some reporting that there
may have been some money left over from
the chips act and quantum firms might be
interested certainly would be interested
in either obtaining uh equity
investments or my guess is more likely
loans or or warrants or or some other
financial structure. I I think the the
question of how strategically important
quantum is as a technology when you
compare it with more obvious feed stocks
like rare earths or energy or compute or
fabs. I I I think that's that's to be
decided. I don't know.
>> Well, I will say I can't add anything to
Alex's insights on this at all, but I
will say I talked to Frank Wilchuk about
it. He's a Nobel Prize winner in was
winner in physics and you know famous
and spent his whole career in quantum
physics and he said almost exactly the
same thing Alex said. So there's two
data points.
>> All right, let's jump into energy. A few
different articles here. Uh this one's
interesting. Uh in particular's a chart
showing us the increasing price for US
construction of nuclear reactors versus
China. And here's the quote.
Construction costs for nuclear reactors
in the United States have risen roughly
a th000% since 1970s while China's costs
have steadily declined. Um, that's not
good news. Alex, do you want to weigh in
on this?
>> Yeah, I I think there is an alternative
history where the US never basically
stopped building nuclear plants in the
late 1970s. And if you're familiar with
all of the the microeconomics around
experience curves, costs, unit costs
tend to collapse the more you make of a
given item. And as a country, the US
basically stopped making nuclear power
plants decades ago. And we're going to I
I think if if we're going to feed the
voracious energy appetite of of these AI
data centers, we we need as a country to
relearn how to build lots of next
generation nuclear plants. And the good
news is the demand signal is being sent
by the AI data center companies. But I I
think there will be all of these
knock-on benefits, not just for AI data
centers, but for everyday life if we
live again in a a truly powerrich
society.
>> Well, Alex, it's worse than it's worse
than that sounds too because it's not
just about unit costs. If you look at
the actual construction of a nuclear
facility in the US, it's mostly
overhead, regulatory, political garbage,
cost.
>> It's regulation, it's litigation, it's
loss of manufacturing expertise, all of
these things. said, "We've done it to
ourselves." All right. Uh, next article
here is fascinating. US is offering
nuclear energy companies access to
weaponsgrade plutonium. So, this comes
out of energy secretary Chris Wright.
The US Department of Energy will let
private firms use 19 tons of plutonium
from old warheads to fuel their next
generation reactors. Um, the moving the
move is boosting domestic nuclear
supply, reducing reliance on Russian
uranium. Uh I find this as a fascinating
move. I mean talk about you know sort of
removing the shackles uh and giving
entrepreneurs access to feed stock.
Who wants to take it?
>> Well, everybody everybody probably knows
this, but the cost of the fuel in a
nuclear reactor is tiny. It's it's a
rounding error. And so everyone's been
buying their fuel from Russia for a long
time. Opening up the US supply doesn't
really change anything. It's a rounding
error in the overall costs anyway, but
you know, if you're going to buy it from
Russia anyway, what's what's what's the
harm in using our surplus plutonium? So,
it's not it's not changing the math one
iota.
>> Alex, take I I'd also comment maybe even
more broadly on nuclear engineering as a
vibrant discipline. There there was
maybe a bit of a hot take uh but there
was a period of time for a few decades
when nuclear engineering unless it was
for say some biomedical application was
positively unfashionable uh to to study.
Uh, and I I I think that um I I don't
want to call it a nuclear winter for
obvious reasons, but that there there
there was a I think that period of time
we're coming out of that now. And as a
society, speaking particularly of the
US, but the the West in general is is
entering an era when we need to
refamiliarize ourselves with with the
nuclear fuel cycle and get comfortable
with nuclear fuel cycles in general.
It's part of the future. uh in
particular part of the future is fusion
uh and so the US has put forward a new
roadmap for fusion energy. The DOE road
map touts commercial fusion by the mid
2030s
actual aim to for public infrastructure
uh in the 2030s to scale up. Uh
interestingly this has zero dollars of
federal funding behind it uh and $9
billion of private investment. Alex, you
found this particular timeline. Talk to
us about it. What does it mean?
>> Yeah. No, I I I I enjoyed reading the
road map. I I thought it was delightful
in in some respects. So, the the road
map calls for three stages of
advancement in in fusion energy in the
US. The the first stage, call it the
short term over the next 2 to 3 years,
calls for early stage price
demonstrations. So, that takes us
through 2027 2028. the the second stage
medium-term calls for early stage fusion
pilot plants uh between 2028 and 2030.
And the the third quote unquote
long-term calls for actual operation at
production of generation power plants
between 2030 and 2035. So this is
actually a very I I think some would say
it's a very ambitious timeline at least
by historic standards where fusion was
always 30 to 50 years out. Now it it's
basically in in our short term. Uh and
it also I think aligns with some of the
public announcements that Helion on the
one hand and Commonwealth Fusion on on
the other hand have made regarding
actual test facilities being in
operation between 2028 and 2030. So I I
think in in short this road map is more
a reflection or at least I interpreted
as more a reflection of some of the the
most ambitious private sector players
and their actual plans. Yeah, Dave,
we're going to be having uh dinner with
uh Bob Mumgard on Wednesday night in
Riad. We have our abundance dinner that
we're co-hosting uh with uh Amjad from
Replet uh and Link Ventures. A lot of
incredible people are going to be there.
So, I look forward to asking him more
about this.
>> Yeah, me too. Yeah,
>> I mean the head of Commonwealth Fusion,
he's done extraordinary work. Uh I'm
excited to see where they're going to
go. All right, continuing on the energy
theme. Amazon bets big on nextg nuclear.
So this is uh the state of of SMR, small
uh modular reactors. This one is with X
energy. We've talked about X energy
before. its initial 320 megawatt output
that can scale to nearly a gigawatt uh
which can power data centers obviously
carbon-f free um you know I love SMRs
and I love the Gen 4 nuclear reactors uh
you know we unfortunately shut we talked
about this we've shut down our ability
to manufacture these and so this has
become an entrepreneurial effort but one
of the things that I find fascinating is
while we have the designs we have
permissions the timelines for getting
these SMRs out. Um they're not like 26,
27, 28. They're 2030s.
>> Um which is concerning. Why can't we get
these going going faster, right?
>> No, the timelines are timelines are
really interesting to track and it'll
come up at FII next week in a big way.
But uh you know, a gigawatt you we you
know, Eric Schmidt said we need 100
gigawatts by 2030. And that's just a
that's just a fact. You know, it can't
go up or down because that's the number
of GPUs we'll be making. they're going
to go into production one way or
another. And so you need to find 100
gigawatts um by 2030. That's only about
a 10% expansion of the US power supply.
So it's not it's not insurmountable. But
then 2031 2032
the the GPU the new fabs will be online
and the GPU production will go way up in
2031 2032. And so then you need some
massive you know the 100 gigawatts is a
stepping stone to something much bigger
just a few years later. So if the fusion
comes online in 2029 2030 it's massively
important but if it's just 5 years late
like where's that power going to come
from then suddenly you're launching them
into space and so these completely
different ideas you know and the modular
reactors here they're fision so that's
the third option plus renewable is a
fourth so all those things are racing
against this 2030 clock
>> I have to imagine by 2030 we're going to
have figured out more energyefficient
compute um 10x or 100x more efficient.
And you know, Alex, I'd love to hear
your thoughts on that.
>> The intelligence of the AI between here
and there is going to be like,
>> yeah, but also like I I I I have to
invoke Jeban's paradox. We're we're
going to have presumably much more
demand for it as well, even though cost
per computer algorithmic advances are
going to to 5x to 10x every year. may be
uh optimistically the the amount of
energy uh the energy reduction that we
need in any given year. So I I I don't
know when or if there will be a turning
point where we need less energy. I I
will point out though with the SMRs I I
think it's striking no cooling towers.
This is a totally new form factor.
Decades of acculturation people being
trained to look for those iconic
cylindrical cooling towers. No cooling
towers. These can be put in so many more
locations. They are compact. They can be
put into novel sites that otherwise
might never been might never have been
on the table for for some of the first
generation nuclear power sites. So even
if there is a sequencing issue and even
if the the the first boatloads of SMRs
start arriving circa 2030, I I do think
they they're very likely to end up being
an important part of the overall power
mix for AI data centers and otherwise.
Yeah, keep in mind the vast majority of
the data centers don't need to be near
population centers.
>> And that's a big difference. You know,
the those iconic cooling towers that
Alex was mentioning, people hate them
when they're on the beach in front of
your house.
>> But these these SMRs can be, you know,
Wyoming and and Texas and Nevada in the
middle of, you know, very unpopulated
areas. That's a great place to put some
of these really large scale data
centers. So, this will happen for sure.
>> They look like they look like normal
buildings. That that's what's most
striking to me. You you would never at
least with the eyes of 2025 today look
at the the building that you're sharing
and say, "Aha, that that's that's
obviously a fision site. It looks like a
normal building."
>> Amazing. So, you know, we're going to
see a continued mix. Um, I sure hope
that the government does start backing
solar and backing SMRs and backing
fusion more. We need to accelerate our
energy production uh beyond just natural
gas and coal and other areas. Uh, I'm
going to end this with what I'm going to
call uh a weird science article. So,
let's uh let's end on something that um
doesn't normally enter our conversation
in the exponential world. Alex, you
found this one. Uh it's called butt
breathing, a real medical option. Do you
want do you want
>> Sure. Sure. Peter, I I'll take the hit
for ending on a low note. So, so but but
in all seriousness, um this is a
transformative breakthrough or at least
the beginnings of a transformative
breakthrough for people suffering from
severe respiratory failure who can't
breathe through their lungs. Uh and if
folks have seen the abyss, the the
science fiction movie where there's a a
famous scene where uh a character is is
consuming uh oxygenated or I should say
an oxygen substitute liquid. So
breathing liquid basically uh deep
underwater that they'll have some
familiarity with novel forms of of
respiration and blood oxygenation. This
was also the subject of last year's
Ignobbel Prize u for for discovering
that non-human animals could oxygenate
their blood supply by uh by consuming
oxygen uh via the other end as it were.
So only only so many euphemisms I can
use here, but
>> well the intestines are a very bloodrich
large surface area part of your body.
And so if you're able to put sort of a
uh hyper oxygenated fluid enema, let's
call it that. Uh then you can perhaps
oxygenate your blood supply and get
enough uh enough of your uh your red
blood cells oxygenated to get to your
brain. Seriously,
>> I mean,
>> it's like it's
>> but but to elevate just a little bit,
>> we've lost our entire audience on this
particular art. The only reason I like
this story and I wanted it in the
podcast is because every time Salem says
something in the future, we have the
option to say, "Oh, he's butt breathing
to to to maybe just to to try to elevate
a little bit that there's been interest
over the decades in uh nanoobots that
would help with uh with oxygenating the
blood, so-called respirites.
And to the extent that it's possible,
and I I should add also parenthetically,
sci-fi scenarios like enabling humans to
be able to hold their breath underwater
for hours on end. So there there's been
like persistent sci-fi pressure to
discover new ways to oxygenate the blood
in uh in environments that are call them
uh less than hospitable. So to the
extent
>> you're you're really really reinforcing
the theory that you're an AI
So I you know all of this all of this
materializes on the backside of
nanotechnology and one of these times
you know I really want to dive into not
wet nanotechnology where we're using DNA
origami but you know drexlerian uh you
know assemblers that just opens up
everything and respites are fantastic
you know uh literally BCI enabled
through uh it's through nanobots in in
the brain um I can't Wait. So, you know,
I'm going to get Ray Kerszswwell on our
podcast uh so we can have the
conversations with him. Uh Ray's been a
dear friend and a mentor for so many
years. At the end of the day, you know,
his prediction is nanobots by uh the
early mid 2030s, so 2033. And that's
going to unlock uh you know high
bandwidth BCI but unlocks basically
longevity escape velocity or I don't
like using the term immortality cuz it
sort of hits so many different negative
buttons but if you can repair on a
cellular and subcellular level all parts
your body that is an incredible future.
>> Well if you get Ray and Alex on the same
podcast that podcast could also be
immortal. That would be something I
would kill to see. Well, we'll we'll do
that uh for sure. And uh again, to all
of our friends listening, I hope you've
enjoyed this episode of WTF. Uh if
you're not a subscriber, please join us.
We'll let you know. You know, it's
interesting. We're putting out news as
it breaks. So, while we try and do this
once a week, sometimes it comes out
twice a week. And uh you'll get a notice
of that. Uh we hope that uh other than
butt breathing that this helps you
understand how fast the world is
changing. uh and that you know we're
living this extraordinary time uh where
we can solve any grand challenge.
Congratulations to the visionering
x-priseze teams uh for winning
visionering and to the entire x-prise
organization for really accelerating
these grand challenges. I'd love to know
in uh in the notes here if you have an
X-P prize that you'd love to see in the
future. Let us know what it is. Uh Dave,
I'm heading to the airport in I think
two hours to head to Saudi.
>> Crazy.
>> It's gonna be fun. I'll see I'll see you
and Immod and Sem there. Alex, we will
miss you.
>> You'll be there either digitally or in
spirit, but we have quite quite the week
lined up uh meeting with the top CEOs
from all the AI and tech companies. Um
it's going to be fun. Any favorite
meetings you're looking forward to,
Dave?
>> Well, you know, you're kicking it off
with the the big shots. So, you know,
you've got Eric Schmidt, Larry Fank,
just like the the big big money people
and the big vision people. So, that's
the that's going to be such a fast
start.
>> But then backstage, it's like God, it's
just like a who's who of incredible
people. So, I'll be backstage the whole
time.
>> Uh it's Yeah, it's going to be wild.
>> So, thanks all. Uh
>> yeah, no, a pleasure. I chair FII out of
Saudi. It's the future investment
initiative and I'm on the board there
and I chair their AI activities. You
know, one of the things that's going to
be interesting this year is we have uh I
think 20 something heads of state and
I'm going to be co-chairing uh a
conclave with uh and uh an Mida from
A16Z
uh and we're going to be talking about
how to use AI to accelerate governance
for countries. You know, one of the
biggest challenges we have, we'll talk
about this when we come back, is that
the speed of change is so extraordinary
and so disruptive in terms of AI and
humanoid robots and longevity that
countries out there are having a
difficult time trying to understand what
policies do they put in place? How do
they, you know, what do they do best for
their for their nation state, for their
citizenry? And so, we're going to be uh
announcing a program uh called Sovereign
AI governance engine. We'll talk about
what that means, but it's really to help
people around the world deal with the
disruptive change and disruptive
opportunity uh at the speed of AI versus
the speed of uh governing governments
and PDFs.
Yeah,
>> it's going to be good. Yeah. And the re
the reason that's coming out in Saudi
Arabia at RI in Riyad is because uh the
deployment rate of ideas like that can
be very very very fast in those
countries because you know they make
decisions kind of in a in a very
tight-knit little very very fastmoving
group. And so that'll be a huge bell
weather for Western democracies because
it'll it'll happen there long before it
happens in the US and Europe.
>> Alex, what's the week like for you
buddy?
It's in some sense the the same as every
week for me, which is trying to
accelerate and smooth out the gentle
singularity.
>> Yes, I love that. By the way, our
episode on the singularity is now has
just done incredibly well. People um I
mean I've had people telling me uh f you
know faculty at UCLA and others saying
I've assigned this to all of my students
to listen to
>> to that podcast. Yeah. No,
extraordinary. It's It's really done. Uh
it's gone viral. So, if you haven't
heard that episode, the Singularity is
now. Go listen to it. Uh it's the
Moonshot Mates at their best. Love you
guys. Uh see you on the other side of
the pond. Dave, Alex, see you in a week
when we're back.
>> All right.
>> Sounds great.
>> All right.
>> Take care all.
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