The REAL Reason America Has No Idea What's Coming

I mean you have written books about suicide terrorism.

>> That's right.

>> I've got one of them in front of me here called dying to win. So I mean you know a lot about this subject and this is one of the concerns that actually my fiance had said to me. She said I explained to her I was like you know Iran they really just have drones at the moment so I

think that's fine. And then she posed a question to me. She was like yeah but what about suicide terrorism?

>> Let me just explain. So here we are. It

is uh here is of course Iran and imagine it's back in June. So I'm going to start the story in June. This is the beginning of the smart bomb, the escalation trap.

Stage one, we hit uh Foro, which is right around there. And then we hit Natans uh and some other sites right around here. And what does Iran do here?

around here. And what does Iran do here?

They lash back. And who are they lashing back against? Israel here. They have

back against? Israel here. They have

their missiles focused on Israel.

They're not really hitting our bases here. They're hitting Israel and they

here. They're hitting Israel and they send 3,000 Israelis to the hospital. The

most since the 73 war. So, a long time.

That is stage one. Okay. Now, what

happened when in February 28, February 28, they're lashing back a bit against Israel for sure, but now they're at stage two. This is why I published this

stage two. This is why I published this piece today in foreign affairs about how Iran's winning the escalation war. So it

just came out just a few hours before we came on. And what's happening here is

came on. And what's happening here is called I call it horizontal escalation because what they're doing now is they're using drones mostly a few missiles but mostly drones. This was

almost all missiles no drones and they're using their drone capacity which they have a lot of and it's precision.

These drones are like precisiong guided weapons. They go right to the target and

weapons. They go right to the target and what they're trying to do is break this coalition.

>> For anyone that can't see at the moment that they counted with horizontal escalation against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, >> the coalition that had been formed against them. They're trying to break

against them. They're trying to break the coalition, you see.

>> Um, and they may well do that.

>> Why Why would they want to break that?

Why my friends are escaping Dubai at the moment? I mean, I've got a friend

moment? I mean, I've got a friend staying in my house in Cape Town because he doesn't want to be >> because they want these countries to kick the Americans out of their country.

>> Okay?

>> Get rid of the uh embassies. Get rid of the bases. If you can then we don't have

the bases. If you can then we don't have the platforms to plaster them. You see,

these are our basically groundbased aircraft carriers.

>> I thought they were they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for example, because that will make Saudi Arabia call Trump and say, "Listen, stop please. We're losing

our t tour tourism. We're shutting our airports." Well, they do want to they

airports." Well, they do want to they are threatening the tourism, hitting the economic nodes, they're hitting uh hotels, uh they're hitting the airports.

What they are trying to do is by threatening tourism, which is varies from 5% to 10% of the GDP of these countries. This is not trivial amounts

countries. This is not trivial amounts here. They're basically trying to drive

here. They're basically trying to drive wedges between these countries and America. and America right now, I don't

America. and America right now, I don't see any movement through Congress. I

where where is this hundred billion dollars going to the region to make up for their lost tourism? I I don't remember seeing that bill come through Congress last week. So, um I'm just putting a little humorously to point out

these countries are losing a fair bit right now and that tourism may not come back for a while.

>> I've got friends that are that have moved.

>> I've got friends that one of my friends was thinking about leaving is now in my house in Cape Town and he's been there for 5 years. He's leaving and he's going to move to America. I've got so many friends that have called you

>> and and imagine that we have 500,000 American citizens here and we have the State Department on CNN. Call this

number. We'll help you escape.

>> It's even the media in the UK, you see it. It's like it's they're showing like

it. It's like it's they're showing like the BBC are showing like evacuations of UK citizens as they're being greeted in the airport putting microphones.

>> So, this is putting a lot of pressure here. And there's something else that's

here. And there's something else that's not widely known, which is there's a big gap between what the leaders of the countries want willing to support US and

Israel and their publics. You see, this coalition that's been built against Iran here is not clearly going down well with publics. These are publiclix. They may

publics. These are publiclix. They may

not like Iran. They may be Sunni and Iran Shia, but they don't want to be part of an Israeli expansion plan where Israel is going to conquer more and more territory and so forth. And so this is

this is this is where the soft underbelly here of this. This isn't just about the tourism. That's the short term. The longer term is bottom up

term. The longer term is bottom up pressure. Uh Saddat, he was a leader of

pressure. Uh Saddat, he was a leader of Egypt in the 1970s. He cut a deal with uh Israel. It's called the Camp David

uh Israel. It's called the Camp David Accords, peace uh uh for land. There was

but it was very favorable. Well, after

Saddat did that, the president of Egypt in 1981 in a military parade, his own security guards at the military parade

marched with their guns, came up to his place, and they shot him dead.

So, you don't This is the real world here. So, this is very, very dangerous

here. So, this is very, very dangerous for these leaders. Now, that's stage two. Now, what what happens if we decide

two. Now, what what happens if we decide to have one of these limited ground uh uh deployments here? Because after all, we still don't know where this material is.

>> What does that mean? So, for anyone that doesn't know anything about the war, what does a a ground deployment mean?

Cuz I I saw Trump being asked about this on the plane yesterday, and he didn't seem to deny it was going to happen. It

means you try to control a limited amount of space, say the space around Foraux or the the nuclear facility that you bombed in June, and you would send

the say 82nd Airborne in to control the space.

>> What is this? I don't know where any of this stuff is.

>> Oh, I see. So 82nd Airborne is is a division that we have that's especially equipped to uh go into hostile area and

land and control say airports control space. Think about controlling all the

space. Think about controlling all the size of LAX.

>> Mhm.

>> So if you want to control LAX, you bring in the 82nd Airborne. They will have 5,000 men and women, not just guys now.

And they will come in and they will control that space LAX. But they will also be doing this probably not for a day, not for even a week. They're going

to have to spend weeks and weeks to search for that material cuz we don't know where it is and it's all deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has been

the the entrances have been blown up. So

this means this means long-term presence there. You might also take some of the

there. You might also take some of the oil fields to cut off some of the um money uh here for the uh uh for the regime. That is where that book comes

regime. That is where that book comes in.

>> Do you think it's likely that America will put boots on the ground, American soldiers in Iran?

>> I think it's at least 50/50 if not immediately. So people keep expecting

immediately. So people keep expecting the escalation to be continuous and then when there's a pause uh as there was between June and February, they think, "Oh, it's over. I'm going to go now

worry about something else." And then, believe me, there's plenty else to worry about. So, we got Minneapolis. We got

about. So, we got Minneapolis. We got

plenty to worry about here, even with violence. But that's not how escalation

violence. But that's not how escalation operates. Escalation can happen have a

operates. Escalation can happen have a ratchet effect that has that's spaced out by months of what seems like peace

only to come right back and you're stuck in that escalation momentum >> which is what we've seen >> which is exactly what we've seen and for the reason I'm telling you we don't know

where that nuclear material is that has been the $64,000 weakness in this entire clear idea of using air power and not just in the last

10 days going back to June. It's not

just even about the regime change. It's

about how are you going to get that nuclear material out? We had a deal, this deal with Obama. Trump did not like

it. But with that deal, that held and

it. But with that deal, that held and Iran took out almost all virtually just only a tiny bit was left. They not

enough for a bomb. All out of the country. And we watched it. We monitored

country. And we watched it. We monitored

it. We had 247 cameras to monitor this.

We had human on-site inspections to monitor this. 2018, Trump just ripped it

monitor this. 2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked away unilaterally, and from that point on, it's been pedal to the metal by Iran in upgrading that enriched

uranium. And that's how you got to that

uranium. And that's how you got to that material that would be enough for the 16 bombs. And right now, we don't know

bombs. And right now, we don't know where that is. So

>> yeah, >> stage one is >> okay stage one you are beginning the escalation trap. In this case it's a

escalation trap. In this case it's a smart bomb trap but it because it's with smart bombs where you have tactical success near perfect call it 100%

because it it really is but that doesn't mean you have strategic success tactical success plus strategic failure.

Then that strategic failure weighs on you over time because the enemy still got the thing that you wanted to get in the first place. Now you do stage two

which is regime change because after all you've already hit the targets. You can

make the rubble bounce but what more that's why we didn't bomb them in the last 10 days. We might go back and bomb for some more. Okay, but we already bombed it. So so there's only watching

bombed it. So so there's only watching the bubble but now we're at stage two because what are your options? The only

other option is well let me get rid of the regime because then the regime I will control and the next regime will just give us the material. That's not

working now. And you hear today Trump is dancing trying to figure out what to say. He doesn't want to say the war's

say. He doesn't want to say the war's over. Okay? Doesn't want to say the

over. Okay? Doesn't want to say the war's going on. But the bottom line is we don't even he won't even be clear about why we're fighting the war anymore. And I'm telling you there's a

anymore. And I'm telling you there's a real problem. The nuclear material is

real problem. The nuclear material is still there.

and it can still be fashioned into those 16 bombs over time. So this is where then you get this horizontal escalation where now they've really really working on this because now it's a long war.

>> They start attacking their neighbors >> and tried to make it a uh the consequences go on for months. So just

imagine when are your friends exactly going to move back? So let's say the war is over tomorrow. Are they moving back tomorrow? No. And when was last time uh

tomorrow? No. And when was last time uh have you started to plan for your next vacation in Dubai? I've been I was I was planning speaking there in a month's time, but it's been cancelled already.

>> Well, just yeah, just starting to think about that and you know, minor thing like a drone attack could suddenly come out of nowhere. You know, you're not even you think it's I'm just trying to point out that this is this is the world now that a lot of people this was a

luxury market. This was the playground

luxury market. This was the playground of the rich and famous here. This is

really now changing and it may come back a year or two from now, but it took 2 years for air travel to come back after 9/11. Just think about that. this. Now,

9/11. Just think about that. this. Now,

we haven't gotten to stage three yet, which gets to your girlfriend's point.

>> How do we move from stage two to stage three?

>> Oh, well, because you still don't know where the the nuclear material is.

>> Mhm.

>> And we don't have to move to stage beyond uh to stage three this week. We

could do it a month from now, 6 months from now. The problem is we've now put

from now. The problem is we've now put in place a much more aggressive leadership, much more aggressive regime.

We've taken away some of the uh what may have been guardrails. We can't say for sure for the nuclear weapon. This this

new regime much more likely. And we've

given them every incentive to develop the nuclear bomb. We're killing them. So

So what exactly is their incentive?

Their their their best way to survive is to have a nuclear weapon. And you'll

say, "Well, we're going to kill them."

Well, we're already killing them. So

we've taken away their incentive not to have a nuclear weapon. So we will start to worry as each week goes by. Not

because we have great intel, not because our human well it's because of the opposite. We don't have the exquisite

opposite. We don't have the exquisite intelligence we had with the Obama deal to know we had frozen the program. Now

that we have Swiss cheese at best and what we will see in the holes of the Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear development. And that will make us worry

development. And that will make us worry because what happens with the nuclear weapon is it going to go to Hezbollah and is Hezbollah going to help put it in uh uh uh Hifa? What's going to happen

with these? Are we going to give is are

with these? Are we going to give is are they going to give it to the Houthies?

So these are the kind of worries we will have that will push us to the ground options and that that is with stage

three the retaliation approaches the homeland >> is that realistic >> if ISIS with its 30 to 40,000 uh

remember ISIS was not a state Iran is an actual state with 92 million people so if ISIS can fment commander directed

inspired suicide attacks and other attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind of bring it a little bit closer to home here across the United States. Paris,

remember the big Paris attack? So why

exactly is Iran not if I mean ISIS was a lot weaker than Iran?

>> Do you think in Iran at the moment they're working on that? They're working

on a terrorist attack. Well, I don't I think that my work tells me that it's most likely to come with the presence of the ground forces by us. Doesn't mean

it's it's a necessary condition, but it's just most likely. Russia in 96 with our help, we played a trick on them.

Assassinated the Chetchin leader. It's a

leader of its republic in uh in Russia called Cheschna Dunv. only a million people and Russia um killed the guy and we actually have pictures of him seeing

the the missile hitting him cuz we can put the cameras right in the nose cone.

Then the new guy took over. His name was Bazov and he uh launched within three months, not the next week, Operation

Jihad. and his operation jihad was much

Jihad. and his operation jihad was much more vicious tactics. Kicked the Russian forces. Russia is a big country. You

forces. Russia is a big country. You

know, hundred almost 200 million people compared to this little province of a million. Kicked the Russians out after 3

million. Kicked the Russians out after 3 months. Launches a waves of suicide

months. Launches a waves of suicide attacks, massive kidnappings here. This

really went on for years and years. So

when you say, are they planning it? I I

don't think it's quite right, Stephen.

It's not like they have the detailed plan they're about to execute. They have

the next wave of possibilities which would come I think most likely with stage two. So stage three. So as

this is expanding, as the war expands, it will go global.

>> Really, >> you are already seeing it global with the supply chain and you're seeing it with the oil. So that's already happening. So, um, what Iran said today,

happening. So, um, what Iran said today, the the, uh, response to Trump's press conference today that just literally happened before we came on is, "Okay, we

will allow Gulf States, your oil tankers to come through if you kick the Americans out." So, kick the Americans

Americans out." So, kick the Americans out and we'll let you pass >> if you don't.

>> If you don't, we got drones. So, they

didn't put that in there, but everybody knows they got drones. And again, for if you were explaining this to a 16-year-old.

>> Yeah.

>> Just to keep it super simple, there's this passageway across the water where a lot of the oil tankers go.

>> Yep. It's straight of Hormuz.

>> Hormuz. And it sounded like the tankers are refusing to go through there at the moment.

>> Sure. Because one has been hit, but it only takes one to be hit with a drone.

Only one. Because the people driving those tankers here, they're doing it for a paycheck, not a bullet. They're not

really wanting to die for this. This

isn't a nationalist cause to ship the the oil.

>> Explain why it matters to the world. If

if oil doesn't go through this straight of hummus, what matter? What happens?

>> Yeah. Well, we can talk about it in like technical terms, but the big thing to say is this is what's going to increase the price of gas at the pump. And it's

already gone up. When you cut the flow of the oil, it has global effects. It

doesn't just affect this little region here. It doesn't just affect China over

here. It doesn't just affect China over here. It affects everybody. And that's

here. It affects everybody. And that's

why the Europeans are starting to freak out because this they're already every government worries about we talk about affordability. That's about to change.

affordability. That's about to change.

>> And is this your point about how it changes the politics at home because people someone goes to the pump today, they go why is the oil higher?

>> That's right. Why is the We just came we now have 4.4% 4% unemployment. Um, if we and and President Trump was trying to say it's all getting better, the interest rates are going down. Well,

that all predicated on us not having inflation. You see, when the oil is cut,

inflation. You see, when the oil is cut, the inflation goes up. The affordability

becomes a problem. That is what is panicking a lot of the businesses right now because they're going to lose business. And and it's a problem of

business. And and it's a problem of risk. It's not just about the damage. So

risk. It's not just about the damage. So

a little a few of these drones can have an inordinate effect on risk. Now let's

bring in another piece which is Russia we find out is providing targeting intelligence to Iran much the way we

provide targeting intelligence to Ukraine to hit uh uh targets in Russia.

And what does that mean? That means

those drones which are precisiong guided now can more easily find exactly which ship to hit. So they

>> do we know that Russia are doing that?

>> We've got it pretty well confirmed from Yeah. It's you would hear much more push

Yeah. It's you would hear much more push back here. And what you're hearing from

back here. And what you're hearing from Secretary Hegsth is not it's not happening. You're saying oh no well

happening. You're saying oh no well let's not overw worry. No, it's

happening and they're worried because that's the that's the again the dancing around. They're not denying the fact

around. They're not denying the fact that it's actually happening.

>> I think Trump actually when asked said something words to the effect of, "I wouldn't blame them because that's what we do to them."

>> Exactly. Exactly. And why is he talking to Putin today? He's not talking He was just on the phone with Putin before he did his press conference. What's he

talking to Putin about? Bad intel, I'm sure, and maybe cutting a deal, which is we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if you deny. You see, this is the this is

you deny. You see, this is the this is this is the the cascading effects of the politics dominates the tactics. And that's exactly what

the tactics. And that's exactly what Trump said. He said on March the 7th

Trump said. He said on March the 7th when asked about Russia teaming up with Iran on intelligence, he said, "If we asked them, they'd say, "We do it against them." Wouldn't they say that we

against them." Wouldn't they say that we do it against them?

>> It's almost justifying it.

>> Trump often just speaks his mind. uh

sometimes he kind of hides things but some often he speaks his mind and what you're seeing here is of th this is the natural thing Russia is uh what's good for the goose good for the gander

they're doing the same thing to us that we've done to them and they have and they're doing it to hurt us you see so rather than just spasmotically or spasm

response here which we often think the the foes we're up against are stupid we essentially think they're dumb we call that irrational rational. But what's

really happening, Stephen, is um since the Vietnam War, we have been up against foes that have understood something about America, which is the way to get

at us is polit politically. Make it a long war. Play the politics. You can't

long war. Play the politics. You can't

go toe-to-toe with us on the battlefield. We'll just clean their

battlefield. We'll just clean their clock over and over. They don't often try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us.

try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us.

We lost the Vietnam War with never losing a battle. How did we lose? We

lost the long game. 58,000 dead, no end in sight, a forever war. What are we doing this for? That is how the North

Vietnamese won. And that's how the

Vietnamese won. And that's how the Afghan Taliban won. That's how the bad guys typically beat us. They don't

always win, but the bottom line is we have a soft underbelly. It's not the military.

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