The SaaS Apocalypse: Who Lives & Who Dies | Insight Partners Co-Founder, Jerry Murdock

Most of the companies their view as they've told me is cursor is obsolete.

That's where the product is today. What

we have with the tsunami happening is a wakeup call to move to higher ground.

Don't get caught on the beach when the damn thing hits the beach. Jerry Murdoch

is one of the most influential venture capitalists of the last three decades.

He's a co-founder of Insight, which now manages more than $90 billion. He led

one of the most eminent rounds for Twitter. And today we sit down to

Twitter. And today we sit down to discuss his biggest lessons from 30 years of investing.

>> If I have any wisdom at all, it's because I [ __ ] up so much and I've learned from it. You really don't know the edge unless you go over it. Here's

the secret. The real secret. I never

left the game. I was lucky because I was losing money every year I've been in this business. I failed. Money does not

this business. I failed. Money does not come with instructions.

>> Ready to go.

Jerry, I've known you for years. I've

wanted to make this happen literally since we first had that lunch. So, thank

you so much for joining me today.

>> Hey, happy to be here.

>> Now, I think it's such an interesting time because bluntly me and a generation of investors are going, "Hang on a minute. Is everything that we've been

minute. Is everything that we've been taught for the last 5 to 10 years completely irrelevant? And now I get to

completely irrelevant? And now I get to sap on your wisdom for the next hour.

When we chatted the other day, you said about tsunamis as an analogy for where we are with the AI wave that we currently face, >> right?

>> What did you mean by the tsunamis and how do you >> Well, f first the first thing I think about a tsunami is that it's harmless when it's out at sea. It's only

dangerous when it hits the beach. Um,

that's number one. Number two, it's messy. You're going to get maybe an

messy. You're going to get maybe an earthquake or two, you know, notifying you there's a something possibly coming.

And it's not just one wave. There's

there's these pre- peak waves and post peak waves, but there's an event coming that is more than a single product. And

in this case, it's autonomous agents.

Autonomous agents is is in my opinion what the tsunami is about. Um, not just AI in general. So autonomous agents is the big wave that comes. And so where are we now? We're in the anticipatory

period where we can see it coming and that's why we're seeing the sassacre or the SAS apocalypse. Is that the case?

>> I I'm not a doomsayer. I I'm but I am one to say look change is coming fast and you need to you need to anticipate that. You need to be on top of that. And

that. You need to be on top of that. And

you know the idea of oh I can just bolt on AI to my company. It's possibly true.

you can maybe get an exit, but being AI native and thinking that way is going to make you a better company. And thinking

deeply about what what is going on in the in the communities that are that are that are driving the tsunami, right? And

uh those those open source communities that are popping up in massive amounts, they're the ones that are going to have the big impact.

>> We're going to get to the bolt-on AI kind of strategies, but you have an incredible portfolio of companies. you

work with many incredible founders. What

do you see in the portfolio that we touched on when we chatted before on the call on Friday that maybe people aren't seeing today when they read the news or think about investing?

>> Yeah. So, if I look at real true AI startups like E2 or Eventual or Lotus AI, um Get Dynasty, these are all native

AI companies that are up and and running. Aven's another great one. Um

running. Aven's another great one. Um

what's happening with them is they're all using um Open Claw, Nano Claw, or one of their own homemade, you know, autonomous agents. The the the And I

autonomous agents. The the the And I think that's not obvious yet in the marketplace, but it's because it's only about 2 months old. These guys have been

doing it for anywhere from 2 weeks to 6 weeks roughly that have brought in autonomous agents to actually write code. That's the thing that I think is

code. That's the thing that I think is mind-blowing.

>> Okay. So, they have autonomous agents to actually write code. What does that mean for Curser, a 27 to30 billion company that's raised a lot of money?

>> Yeah, I I'll tell you. So, most of the companies I just mentioned, their view, as they've told me, is Curser is obsolete. That's where the product is

obsolete. That's where the product is today. Now, my view is, yeah, well, but

today. Now, my view is, yeah, well, but that team is really smart. They've got a lot of money and a lot of customers.

They've got time to embrace autonomous agents, which is what I think they'll do. And they've got shot to pivot and

do. And they've got shot to pivot and figure out what the next direction is.

Um, but you know, in the AI business, you've got to be going where things are going to be. You can't be thinking about yesterday. And um, so I think those guys

yesterday. And um, so I think those guys are going to have to quickly embrace autonomous agents.

>> You mentioned you utilization of openclaw. What do you think is the

openclaw. What do you think is the impact of open claw more broadly that we're maybe not considering enough? Ah,

>> great question. Um, look, first thing you got to do is look at open call and look at the community. I mean, uh, the commitment to open source and the number of people developing for it, right? I

mean, you can look at huge companies like Open AI and you can look at Enthropic putting massive resources and super talented and then you look at open source and you've got sheer numbers of people doing integrations, massive

amounts. If that community keeps

amounts. If that community keeps accelerating and growing, um, we're going to see agents do incredible things that they don't have today. When I think of an autonomous agent, first of all,

we're going to have to come up with what we call the claw stack or some form of stack for the autonomous agent. Back in,

you may not remember, but back in 2003, 2004, you know, we were post 911, the world was miserable. People couldn't

afford to build websites with uh sun sun servers and Oracle databases, which were expensive. But the LAMsack came out

expensive. But the LAMsack came out which was Linux, Apache, web server, um, MySQL, database and PHP front-end

development tool and that led to the explosion in 2004 2005 of websites and ultimately commerce. Uh, Google went

ultimately commerce. Uh, Google went public in 2004 and rode that wave brilliantly. And I think in the same

brilliantly. And I think in the same thing with autonomous agents that you're going to find the open source community coming out with the stack, right? Right

now you've got a reasoning layer that's dominated by Claude and Codeex and Gemini. I think what's going to happen

Gemini. I think what's going to happen with the autonomous agents is ultimately they're going to have an orchestration layer where they can have multiple

different uh LLMs, you know, that they can orchestrate on and triage workflows.

They'll triage workflows and say, "Hey, for this part of the workflow, let's use Claude. They're expensive tokens, but

Claude. They're expensive tokens, but they're going to get the job done better." And then for this other part of

better." And then for this other part of the work, let's use an open- source model like Deep Seek, Llama 3, whatever, you know, and they're going to start from a big picture. Maybe this is going

to happen as soon as orchestration gets solid enough. They're going to determine

solid enough. They're going to determine where the workloads go for reasoning models, which is going to be super powerful. And my guess is this will lead

powerful. And my guess is this will lead to the rise of open- source models more more proficiently. And that's going to

more proficiently. And that's going to lead to the rise of AS6 chips because what's going to happen with AS6 is you're going to put the model on the chip. You know, AS6 is going to be a lot

chip. You know, AS6 is going to be a lot cheaper, a lot more tunable for a specific workload than an expensive, you know, uh, chip from Jensen. So I think

that we're going to see massive you know development of of of uh of of autonomous agents influencing

uh open-source models and AS6 chips from the big picture that's a revolution.

>> So one of my dear friends is Rorio Driscoll from scale and he always says the thing I love about Harry is the statement that's great Jerry but what about me

which I specialize in as a venture capitalist. I have a shitload of Nvidia

capitalist. I have a shitload of Nvidia and I'm thinking through as I listen to you. Can you just play out for me that

you. Can you just play out for me that migration from Jensen chips to A6 chips and and just like how that actually plays out in reality?

>> Right. Well, it's the thing that wasn't mentioned as to why he bought Grock. He

needs that capability so that he can handle uh A6 chips eventually, right? I

mean because Grock is is those guys know how to put you know memory right on the chip and so that's automatically you know an A6 chip today right and so I

think Grock is not just about you know handling different types of workloads and getting memory on the chip it's about making sure that CUDA can also support A6 chips and they're going to

have to go out and make sure that they can get you know they know what's coming they absolutely know what's coming and So they're I think the Grock acquisition is going to help them uh make sure that

CUDA is viable for the A6 explosion that's coming.

>> If the A6 explosion comes and CUDA does migrate with it, does Nvidia retain their value or does it still denigrate because they have a leakage of value with the A6 chip expansion?

>> Depends on execution. This is the thing about the game, you know, who's going to outexecute, who's going to get it more.

I mean, look, you know, a lot of people like to criticize Meta here and there about being behind the game, but they had the balls to say no to Jensen.

Sorry, Jensen. We don't need you. So,

why did he do that? Because he's betting on A6 chips. No question about it.

>> You also mentioned the rooting and the triaging between different models.

>> It makes me think a couple of different things. One, is that not just like a

things. One, is that not just like a commoditization of models where it's a race to the bottom on price and who can deliver the cheapest fastest? And then

two aligned to that what if then we just see models do what we are seeing which is eat into the application stack. How

do you think about those two elements?

>> I think the answer to that question is going to be decided by the autonomous agent not developers. The agent is different than a developer. If you and I are developers we're going to go and do

something based on what our experience tells us what we've what we think. Okay

let's go build something here and we're going to use an A6 chip or whatever.

What's what the difference is an autonomous agent is probabilistic. So

the probabilistic nature of an agent is going to say I don't know which uh which is better A6 or or or or use one of Jensen's chips. Why don't I just go out

Jensen's chips. Why don't I just go out and get 10 Python libraries, run them in 10 different sandboxes, write the write the workload, and then to see which

which one performs better. That's what's

going to happen. And so look look for autonomous agents to have a more of a say in that.

>> But when I think about it again, that's great, but what about me, Jerry? I'm

investing in the agent layer today like many other investors are. And I'm also seeing anthropic release incredible application layer products very quickly, whether it's legal, whether it's their co-work.

>> Yeah.

>> How do we determine between safe for us to invest versus in the path of an anthropic product update? You know,

that's why you get paid the vape bucks, Harry, is that no one's gonna tell you what's safe. And you're gonna have I

what's safe. And you're gonna have I thought that was the point of this.

>> Listen, 80 I'll tell you about 80% of the investments I've made uh have returned less than 1.3x. So, it's the it's the

20% that made all the money in my life and and made all the impact. money is

just a sort of batting score for how much impact you had, you know, as an investor. That's the way I see it. And

investor. That's the way I see it. And

so there is nothing safe right now.

You're going to have to watch who's going to execute and and you know, who's going to execute the best. Do you think the public markets over rotate when it

comes to price responsiveness on these updates? You saw

Cloudflare and Crowd Strike hit like 10% on the back of an anthropic security. Is

that an overreaction?

>> Look, you know, to answer your question and about the markets and they over rotate. If you go to Wall Street, you'll

rotate. If you go to Wall Street, you'll see the giant bull that's there in the statue. It's because of a herd

statue. It's because of a herd mentality. And yeah, I think and I think

mentality. And yeah, I think and I think investors are like, "Hey, I'm not a technologist. I'm just going to sit back

technologist. I'm just going to sit back and watch this." Someone panicked. maybe

the others are just sitting on the sidelines. What you're seeing is is less

sidelines. What you're seeing is is less about panic selling uh because it'd be down a hell of a lot more than it is.

And what you're seeing is is cautious on the sidelines buyers that are saying, "Hey, I don't see a deal here. I'm not

sure I have enough information to jump back into Crowd Strike and bring the stock price up."

So, is it an over rotation or is it just a pause where a lot of investors are sitting back saying, "Hey, let's let's get more information about, you know, who's going to be the winners and who's going to be the losers?" That's the way

I see it.

>> Is there a parallel to a prior time where you can remember this? Whoa, whoa,

whoa, immense uncertainty. I do not know what happens. I'm better to sit out and

what happens. I'm better to sit out and watch because I don't want to see Monday drop another 40%.

>> Yeah. So March of 2000, almost 26 years ago, tech stocks you dropped between 30 and 40% across the board. And then if you missed a quarter, you were down over

50 or 60%. And we lived in that malaise uh March through the summer. And by the way, we were still able to get a couple IPOs out at but at lower um multiples

during that time. And we just sat in misery um until 911 which what I call was the coup degra to finish us off and

uh the market got destroyed and we were thinking hey you know we don't do com investments in insight we're going to be fine cuz we knew then in 99 that there

was a bubble and we knew that were going to blow up. We said look it just can't be sustainable. There's not enough

be sustainable. There's not enough commerce. There's not enough people are

commerce. There's not enough people are on dialup. you can't do commerce on

on dialup. you can't do commerce on dialup and there's not enough fiber in the ground. So sure enough there was a

the ground. So sure enough there was a burst however the tsunami came in took out the dotcoms and then took out all

software we all went down and we were in misery for years.

>> Do you think we are in that same pattern? Do you think there will be a

pattern? Do you think there will be a depressed public markets atmosphere for years or will it be different now? Well,

it's always going to be a little bit different. Um, what's happening now is

different. Um, what's happening now is the speed at which things are changing.

You know, like we have this company E2B and you think, okay, they do sandboxes.

Great. If you talk to most technology people, they don't particularly put much of a um emphasis on differences between sandboxes. It's just a thing to keep

sandboxes. It's just a thing to keep your to keep your agent safe, right? Or

keep whatever code you have safe. Um, in

reality, it's also a a productivity tool. And for the agents, uh, if you're

tool. And for the agents, uh, if you're making sandboxes for an agent, it's going to have a qualitatively different speed. For example, about 400

speed. For example, about 400 milliseconds is about a time period that humans can recognize a delay. So, a lot of systems for mobile on that 400

millisecond time frame, and that's what most sandboxes are. Well, EDB has sandboxes that um respond in 80 milliseconds. I'm like, wow, how no one

milliseconds. I'm like, wow, how no one would ever notice it. He said, the agents notice it and that's what matters. When an agent spins up

matters. When an agent spins up literally a 100,000 sandboxes in seconds, that that's response time is critical.

>> We we've spoken a lot about autonomous agents. When you have autonomous agents,

agents. When you have autonomous agents, do they make your systems of record valueless or do they make them much more valuable because they have existing

distribution which they can incorporate those agents into and leverage? Which

one?

>> Well, it depends, you know. Um, I'm an investor in Carta and have been for a long long time and that's a system of record of sorts for for stocks and it

has a lot of potential. um and I believe they're doing the right thing on all fronts, but if um tokenization of stocks come and they use Carta, then Carta is

going to be infinitely more valuable, right? So, cuz they have the cap table,

right? So, cuz they have the cap table, they can help manage the tokenization.

However, if tokenization comes and they bypass Carta and a new system of records get built, then there's not much to say that that system of records going to be

worth much in the future. So, it depends on execution of the Carter management team and their ability to to go capture the trends that are coming forward.

>> If you were to look at a sales force today, which camp would you put it in?

>> There's a lot of companies that, you know, sit on top of it like in Cenino.

There's dozens and dozens of companies that have built on top of the Salesforce system of record. So the real question is let's look at their health. Let's see

how they do. You know, if those guys start getting knocked off one by one and they enough of them get knocked off that they're, you know, that the underlying value of Salesforce becomes less, then

you're going to say Salesforce is going to be worth less. But in the in the history of companies, Salesforce is like a Mount Everest, right? It's an 8,000 m peak sitting there. It's not going to

melt overnight. That thing is going to

melt overnight. That thing is going to be around for a long time. The question

is how valuable is it? And the way to look at it, that question, the way to analyze it is how valuable are all those companies that build themselves on top

of it. If those guys start going down,

of it. If those guys start going down, well, then you're going to see some issues.

>> I'm a little bit stuck here because our job is to ascribe where we see value and where we think there will be more value.

And the things where we used to ascribe value, revenue, growth rate, margin have become transient slashquestable.

So in that time, how do you think about where you ascribe value?

>> You know, it it depends on what the time frame is. If if you look at most

frame is. If if you look at most software companies that are out there, um normally when a new technology comes, it sort of expands the market before it

contracts. because people are already in

contracts. because people are already in their momentum. They're doing what

their momentum. They're doing what they're doing. I wouldn't expect to see

they're doing. I wouldn't expect to see normal software companies to to see software just fall off the the you know off the radar. That's not going to happen. I think what what happens is

happen. I think what what happens is that people get fearful and prices change and then the underlying quality of the business changes based on how

well the management team adapts to the situation. Um, you can imagine some

situation. Um, you can imagine some companies that have system of records that have great context could actually increase value if they're able to put

that context to work and be, you know, with agents with autonomous agents. And

then you have other people that, oh, they don't really adjust fast enough.

They don't really understand what the new market's like. And then their system of record or their software declines because they haven't really moved fast

enough. What we have with the tsunami

enough. What we have with the tsunami happening is a wakeup call to move to higher ground. Don't get caught on the

higher ground. Don't get caught on the beach when the damn thing hits the beach. Move to higher ground. And that

beach. Move to higher ground. And that

kind of adapting of your business. Some

people will do it, some people won't.

>> You said there move fast. You've been

doing this a long time. I I've

shockingly been doing this 10 years now, which shows on my wrinkled face. Um

really it does. My question to you is we're seeing growth rates like we've never seen before ever. I mean zero to 100 million in revenue actually quite frequently or semi-frequently in some of

these cases. Is triple triple double

these cases. Is triple triple double double dead? Have we completely had

double dead? Have we completely had growth expectations blown out of the water?

>> Well, think about this. Right now all software is eventually purchased by human beings.

software is going to be purchased or used by agents. And what's going to happen is an agent, an autonomous agent becomes an employee. You give it

credentials. You give it identity and

credentials. You give it identity and then it's up to the agent to make the decision. You will review them like an

decision. You will review them like an employee and say, "Hey, what did you buy? What did you spend? What did you

buy? What did you spend? What did you accomplish?" And you will manage that

accomplish?" And you will manage that autonomous agent just like an employee.

So you need to prepare for that. If

whatever you got invested in, is that future going to be done and controlled by agents and am I in the right position for that or not?

>> How does the world change when you're not selling to people but you're selling to agents? How does that interaction

to agents? How does that interaction change the interface? What changes when there's that core change in buyer?

>> Well, first of all, it's never happened before, right? So it's happening now. My

before, right? So it's happening now. My

guess is the way pricing models will work better and it's been in process for a few years. One of my companies, Docker, has been moving doratically toward this as they move into AI, which

is a consumptionbased model. If the if the agent has the has the access and is and and has the authorization to use something, say a sandbox, you're just

going to pay based on consumption. The

sandbox is nothing more than you're buying memory or buying compute. And so

you just open it up, it's free, start using it, and then you get a then you ultimately have to pay. Then the agent will come and tell you, hey, we've reached our limit with the sandbox

company here. What do we need to do and

company here. What do we need to do and that's how it's going to work.

>> Going back to what we said earlier about bolt-on AI strategies. There's a lot of public SAS companies, I didn't want to name any of them, who are who are trying to move and not public actually, even

kind of late private who are trying to bolt on, who are trying to pivot.

Does that work? How do you think about the bolt-on strategy as an effective strategy?

>> Well, you know, look, I was just at the Olympics and there's a lot of people trying to win a gold medal and not many people do. And so, you know, you can try

people do. And so, you know, you can try all you want, but you better be world class at what you're trying to do if you're going to get the medal.

>> So, like I have the CEO of Monday.com on the show tomorrow. When you think about the question, I'm not picking on Monday, but I'm saying the question of will enterprise software and will software just be entirely vibecoded,

personalized, customized, how do you think about that? Because that is the kind of eradication of a lot of their market caps. Well, first of all, um,

market caps. Well, first of all, um, autonomous agents, and it may take a year or longer for most enterprises to

actually enable um, and be committed to autonomous agents, but they're going to write software faster, cheaper than any

human being on the planet. And they

already are. And so again, it's this thing of like if you're making your software for autonomous agents and they have a reason to use it and it's valuable, great. You're going to do

valuable, great. You're going to do fine. But if you're not making your

fine. But if you're not making your software for autonomous agents today, you're going to be challenged in the future. Maybe it's 6 months, maybe a

future. Maybe it's 6 months, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, but you're going to be severely challenged if you still think human beings are going to buy your software. And so we have agents buying

software. And so we have agents buying software and we review their decisions.

Great. I don't have to deal with sick leave. I don't have to deal with

leave. I don't have to deal with entitled millennials. I I sound

entitled millennials. I I sound incredibly old school, but this is the truth as you know. Um are you worried about what happens to labor forces given what you said most importantly being the

speed of change is so fast.

>> You know, I'm glad you brought that up.

Um we're about 2 and 1/2 years from the next presidential election. I'm here to say that that is going to be a major issue on the next presidential election.

It could decide the election. It'll be

one of the most important things because there's no easy answer. There's no

question that um anyone that inputs data into a computer that does scheduling that you know like an executive assistant or people doing marketing

those jobs are are are probably ultimately going to be better done by autonomous agents white collar jobs.

People have been saying that for years.

I mean this is nothing new. The question

is when was it going to happen? And now

with the advent of Open Claw and Nano Claw and all the other autonomous agents that are coming, there are the direct threats. First of all, not to the people

threats. First of all, not to the people with the job. First of all, to the next person in line, the next junior developer you want to hire, the next executive assistant, the next marketing

person. So, the first thing you see is

person. So, the first thing you see is people stopping or slowing down hiring of of white collar employees that input data and use a computer. That's the

first thing. Second thing, depending on the speed at which these autonomous agents evolve because there's a lot that they need to do. We've proven they've proven it's exists that they can write

code and they can do anything you want from a scheduling perspective for your life. So they already can replace a

life. So they already can replace a human being. They will. I think that the

human being. They will. I think that the job market's very uneven. I think the first companies that are going to go with this are going to be smallmedium businesses because they're the ones that

wow one secretary makes a huge difference in their in in in how they you know two three four person company how they handle customer service. I know

one company retro app that is out there today. I think they're using autonomous

today. I think they're using autonomous agents to help, you know, triage their support email, you know, so all of a sudden, wow, their customer support can shift immediately. You don't need humans

shift immediately. You don't need humans doing it. You've got the autonomous

doing it. You've got the autonomous agent doing it. So, I think we have to look at what's the speed at which the autonomous agents grow in three sectors,

consumer, small business, and enterprise. My guess is enterprise is

enterprise. My guess is enterprise is last. this whole AI revolution there

last. this whole AI revolution there have been last um they may catch up in a year or two. We'll see. That's going to be what I think Chatt TPT and Google and

and Anthropic are absolutely going to be focused on is getting their own version of autonomous agents adopted by

enterprises rapidly. When this happens,

enterprises rapidly. When this happens, we're going to see dramatic change. And

I think politically, the minimal viable income may become a reality or at least a ballot question in 2 and 1/2 years.

>> What does that mean, a minimum viable income UBI?

>> It means that that you know what, you're going to go and get a get effectively, you know, a certain amount of money guaranteed to you every month. And so

that you if you're a white collar person, they'll they'll change the unemployment program because no administration's going to want to sit there and say, "Yeah, I've presided over

10 15% of the country un unemployed."

What they'll do is have an option to put them into a program. And we retrain people to do something different, maybe to have a better quality of life. If you

take the optimistic view, people living, you know, you know, those jobs that are going to be going away are not going to be jobs that get you a a vacation in Brazil anytime soon. They're the jobs

that are you're suffering at every day making a living and you're struggling as to whether you can pay your health care or not. And so maybe those people say,

or not. And so maybe those people say, "I'm going to move out of the city, move out of the suburb, and maybe I'm going to move back to the country and and grow food, you know, I'm going to get this grant to do so." Um there's already

innovative businesses in Wyoming where they're taking veterans and giving them uh branches to lease because now with technology, one or two people can run a massive branch instead of eight people.

And so there's new things like that happening everywhere.

>> Does this labor displacement does it help or or hurt a Trump administration?

>> Depends when it happens >> in the next two years. I think we both agree that you customer support we're already seeing bookkeepers, legal would be the three and coding would be the

kind of four really vulnerable areas.

>> I I think I think healthcare may hit that before the the labor market hits it. Um because it's going to happen.

it. Um because it's going to happen.

We'll find out this fall. What's the

impact of healthcare on the election?

Um, and if it's a big impact, then you can assume that labor will be a major impact on the, you know, on any administration.

>> When we think about the impact of agents on companies, I had Seb from Cler on the show and he said that at their peak they were 7,000. By 2030, they're going to be

were 7,000. By 2030, they're going to be less than 2,000. Is headcount a bug, not a feature now in companies?

>> You know, look, the people never really talk about it, but it's all about culture. What's your culture? You know,

culture. What's your culture? You know,

I mean, if you're looking to have a culture of A players, and Steve Jobs talked about this at Apple, you want how do you just continue to grow with A

players, um, you're going to have a hell of a lot more agents than people.

So, it depends on what those 2,000 people are doing at CLA that are left.

What's their culture like with those 2,000? If they're all able to have a

2,000? If they're all able to have a greater quality of life, have more time with the kids, maybe it's an awesome win, you know, but I'm not there. I'm

not him, so I can't comment.

>> Do you think we will have billion dollar single person companies? It's often

said. Do you think it's actually a realistic?

>> Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I mean, it's all about how smart is your agent, how how smart are you to deploy the agents and how

willing you will to listen. I think the thing that's shocking is that autonomous agents work, that openclaw worked, and that's why so many developers are so

passionate about OpenClaw because it's something that's working on its own without having to be reviewed, you know, like it's an employee. You've gone from

an assistant to actual employee. Think

about that. That's major major difference uh uh in life. And I I I think those kinds of changes are going

to be really important to notice.

>> I am Orlando Bravo and I'm sitting looking at my book and I've got Anna plan and I've got Cooper and I'm not picking on him but I'm picking on you >> right

>> he what do how does it impact me? I need

to these assets to go out. They're 15 to 20% typical enterprise SAS companies.

What happens to traditional P tech in this environment?

>> Well, let's go back um to to 911. There

was uh several of these traditional buyout firms. They were called hedge.

Now they're now they're called, you know, something more sophisticated, private equity, but they were kind of buyout shops. Teddy Forceman, who I knew

buyout shops. Teddy Forceman, who I knew ran a great one, except in 2000 he went all in on Telos, virtual Telos.

Then it was over for him after 9/11.

Done. No more Forceman Little. And so

there'll be stories like that. I don't

know about Bravo or anybody else, but there'll definitely be PE firms that end up like Forceman Little. And then

there'll be other ones that had the right bets and did the right creativity and they'll be bigger and better and more important than they were before.

Life is basically a a set of experiences you have and the total sum of the decisions you make. And so any of these firms is about the decisions you make.

And now we're at a point in time when you need to review what your assumptions are and and what decisions you're going to make going forward. If you were to make a decision about where you would

place a firm today, seeing the atmosphere and the landscape that you have, where would you choose your investing shop to be? The problem is you got an old man here who's going to want

to have it up in the mountains in Aspen or in the or in the Alps. That's my new thing. I'm not like Elon or Jensen that

thing. I'm not like Elon or Jensen that are going to do this for the rest of their life. I'm just doing this for

their life. I'm just doing this for impact. I can't even imagine going out

impact. I can't even imagine going out there and doing it for the same reasons I did it years ago. It's like Bob Dylan got interviewed and they asked him, "What was it like for you back in 1964

at Newport?" He says, "I don't even know

at Newport?" He says, "I don't even know who that guy was, you know, and I feel the same way. I don't even know what that guy was like back in 1995. It's

moved on. I I was always into this business for the creative impact and to play a very small role on a team that was doing something meaningful. So, I

want to do that. That's going to be important. But, you know, it it's just a

important. But, you know, it it's just a matter of having the right amount of wisdom about how the change is going to impact people and how you're going to do

it. I mean, VC firms should have their

it. I mean, VC firms should have their own autonomous agents. Everybody should.

I mean, can you imagine the the amount of an analytical work? Certainly, the PE firms are all going to have autonomous agents analyzing markets, analyzing where the opportunity is. So if I was

starting from scratch, the one thing I could imagine is having incredible data I could vet on a new opportunity for the white space for where these new AI

companies are going to go and say, "Wow, the data says this guy's on the right market. He just needs to execute." And

market. He just needs to execute." And

then you evaluate not just the person, but the quality of of how they use autonomous agents. That's going to be

autonomous agents. That's going to be the deciding factor for venture capitalists and startups. we're going to be on the same level playing field. How

well do we use autonomous agents in our job?

>> Going back to I don't remember that and Bob Dylan and that I I think actually money makes people better investors.

I've spoken to some of my most successful friends and I say has becoming rich made you a better investor? I'm intrigued to hear your

investor? I'm intrigued to hear your answer. Have you become better the more

answer. Have you become better the more money you've made?

Well, if we use money as a proxy for success, it's funny, you know, with some of our mediocre companies, we thought about swapping out the CEO, and it's like, well, the problem is it's a

mediocre company, and anybody we would put in would have to already be worth, you know, a couple hundred million bucks, so why would they do it? And so,

you've been forced to sort of limp along with the existing team because you're just not going to recruit someone better. they wouldn't be successful.

better. they wouldn't be successful.

There's no validation unless they've made a lot of money. So number one, you know, they it's a proxy for success and success is a combination of experience

and validation of when and how to make decisions. For me, there's two

decisions. For me, there's two components to every decision. There's

the logic and the second is the intuition and you need the intuition.

And so the one thing that the autonomous agents aren't going to have is intuition. Not anytime soon. And so we

intuition. Not anytime soon. And so we need people. We need good intuition and

need people. We need good intuition and to make good decisions. And without that component, you're not going to succeed.

So in my humble opinion, maybe I've got better intuition and that's the reason I've been more successful.

>> Jerry, when's your intuition been most wrong? And what did you learn from it?

wrong? And what did you learn from it?

>> The first thing is how do you know it's really intuition and not wishful thinking? So that's the

first thing I' I've learned over time that intuition was almost never wrong.

But what I was wrong was me thinking it was intuition. It was nothing but

was intuition. It was nothing but wishful thinking.

>> When did you wishful think too much?

>> When I found an entrepreneur that I liked, it was smart but maybe too comfortable. Maybe a person I liked as a

comfortable. Maybe a person I liked as a human being more and they weren't crazy enough. They weren't really driven

enough. They weren't really driven enough. They didn't have that chip on

enough. They didn't have that chip on their shoulder. They didn't have that

their shoulder. They didn't have that obsession, you know, because, you know, I you want to work with people you like.

And so, most of the people that I liked were the ones that let me down and let themselves down. It's the people that

themselves down. It's the people that you struggle with that are a little sharped edge, that are a little aggressive, um, that are and that you may not like as people that are like,

"Wow, okay. Well, but they're they might

"Wow, okay. Well, but they're they might be the ones that succeed." And you have to find that core of humanity in them that you can like them and help them, right? Um, but most of the most

right? Um, but most of the most successful people are going to be challenged socially.

It makes makes me feel incredibly validated cuz I've never felt more awkward than being at a birthday party for another 30-year-old. I'm much more akin to 60-year-olds. My best friend is

63 years old and uh I feel much more comfortable with him. Uh but Peter Phantom once told me the best founders make you feel uncomfortable and I think that's very true. Have you changed as an

ambassador Jerry?

>> Yes. If you don't change you die. It's

like, you know, changing is what allows you to adapt to the world, right? I mean, um, the most

interesting thing if I look at feature stuff is Fei Lee's new startup about this visual representation of the world.

I mean, what she's clearly articulated is that, you know, language is is a very subpar descriptor of the world. It's it's just limited. So for autonomous agents, we

limited. So for autonomous agents, we need a new system where we can visually recognize the world to be able to have an an objective view of reality for the

autonomous agent. That's why we have

autonomous agent. That's why we have poets because we can't really describe the world in in enough detail with language, but we can give you a feeling

about it, right? And so I I I think that that what we have to do in the world is to definitely be aware that we have limitations in understanding it with

language.

>> I think limitations is interesting, dude. I I often reflect on regret. I

dude. I I often reflect on regret. I

love being in Europe. I have family. I I

make a lot of money in Europe, which is great, but I never tried to go to Hollywood as the actor, and I'm just wondering if I'll regret that. What what

would you say to me as a wise OG?

>> You know, there's a great British actor I had lunch with once named Kenneth Bronno and he was reflecting on exactly that question. He said he's made the

that question. He said he's made the Hollywood movies. He but he's done a lot

Hollywood movies. He but he's done a lot in theater, a lot with Shakespeare. And

he said, you know, I could have been more like Olivier that went to Hollywood and did Hollywood films late in life, but I didn't. I chose a different path.

And for Bronna, I think he was very happy he didn't move to Hollywood. He

could have had that career and he's 65 66 now looking back and he's saying, "Yeah, I could have been that, but you know what? I'm I'm I'm really happy I

know what? I'm I'm I'm really happy I didn't do that." So maybe you're like Kenneth Bronna. You're going to be happy

Kenneth Bronna. You're going to be happy you didn't do to Hollywood. I didn't we we started in New York. I've never left Aspen. I lived in New York part-time. I

Aspen. I lived in New York part-time. I

never moved away from Aspen. Jeff and I found a insight in New York City and I cover the West Coast because it was a lot quicker for me. But Jeff and I just

lived on airplanes for the first 10 years, you know, and that's how we handled it. Back in the day, that was

handled it. Back in the day, that was pretty revolutionary. Remember, Silicon

pretty revolutionary. Remember, Silicon Valley was all about people walking down the street. There was VCs that said, "I

the street. There was VCs that said, "I don't invest in anything more than 5 miles from my office."

>> If you can't cycle there, it's not a deal. That was the thing, I think. Yeah.

deal. That was the thing, I think. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean it look you you choose your life, you choose your path, you shouldn't regret it if you're getting what you want and you're growing as a person. The most important thing

looking back is what have you learned about yourself? When I would talk to our

about yourself? When I would talk to our younger partners, like you had Jeff Lieberman on your show and some of our other partners, I'd say, "Hey guys, you know, it's it doesn't help to get super

rich early like you have, unless internally you learn you have the sense of self and about the and you're comfortable with the decisions you make because that's the key thing. You know,

you you can you can become super successful early, but you've got to internalize that success. Recognize

where the failures are. If I have any wisdom at all, it's because I [ __ ] up so much and I've learned from it.

>> I made money very young and I was also an alcoholic. And the combination of

an alcoholic. And the combination of failing badly and passing out drunk many times and my mother being disappointed in the drunk son that she had actually

showed me like what life's really about.

And I I'm so grateful almost for failing in being like that.

>> Absolutely. You've got to go. Hunter

Thompson was a writer that lived near the Aspen area who I used to love.

Hunter Thompson's works. He said, "You really don't know the edge unless you go over it."

over it." And clearly you did.

>> Dude, I've been over it so many [ __ ] times.

>> So knowing the edge, Harry, is is is that's what it's all about. We've got to all go over the edge and hope to live to tell about it. That's what gives you the

sense of knowing that gives you joy in life and gives you a sense of ease and comfort as you move through it. When did

you go over the edge?

>> Well, I did a different kind at 19. I

got accepted to United States International University in Nairobi, Kenya. So 1977 I get on a plane, go to

Kenya. So 1977 I get on a plane, go to Europe, hitchhike around for a couple of months and then I go spend, you know, six months in Africa and I was spent

weekends documenting traditional dances uh with the director of Bulmas. I was

out in the hinderland and you know Kenya is the size of Texas with you know 13 major tribes with 76 individual clans and dialects and we wanted to document it all and going out and living with

these people in the weekends was going over the edge. I mean I ate things I'd never believe I'd eat again. I mean I lived in little huts with goats, you

know, it was not a pretty sight.

Dude, you've built a firm that many and including me would would aspire to. I

just want to understand some wisdom knowing all you know now. What strategy

did you do with insight or product did you do with insight that with the benefit of hindsight you maybe wish you hadn't done? What did you learn? Wow.

hadn't done? What did you learn? Wow.

That we hadn't done in the early days of Insight. The the big mistake we hired

Insight. The the big mistake we hired some famous guy to start Insight Europe and after 6 months we shut it down. It

was a it was a mistake and a half. We

were not mature enough to do that. And

um Europe was something well you know we we loved Europe early on. Fund one had an investment called SLP in Paris. Fundu

had a company called Metaquatro in Spain. It went public. That was a big

Spain. It went public. That was a big win. We did deals in Portugal. We did

win. We did deals in Portugal. We did

deals in the Czech Republic in the '9s.

So, we thought, oh, let's do a fund. Big

mistake. Too much difference. Too much.

We needed to stay in New York together.

We needed to focus. We needed to learn from each other. Having people in Europe was too challenging. That was a mistake that we made. So I always say the product that we sell our LPs is the

quality of our investment decisions and that reduces with remote decision making. Do you agree or do you think

making. Do you agree or do you think that today remote decisions work just as well?

>> That's a function of the team that's a function of who's involved and that a function of experience. You know,

overall, if I were to invest in a company, I would be very suspicious of remote management because human beings today

need it. As we move to autonomous agents

need it. As we move to autonomous agents and human beings, that's a good question. You know, that's a very good

question. You know, that's a very good question. And I don't know how the

question. And I don't know how the future is going to play out, but in the past, uh, remotely managed situation. I

know for me, cuz I didn't live in New York as a co-founder, it was really hard on my team for me to fly in, fly out, fly in, fly out. And because you have to make decisions remotely, you have to sit

with an entrepreneur. You're in San Francisco and you have to commit now >> and you've got a whole team in New York.

You know, it's really tough being that remote guy. You know, if you're all

remote guy. You know, if you're all local and you're all sitting in the same office, you got to make a decision tomorrow. It's a lot easier. So, I would

tomorrow. It's a lot easier. So, I would argue that remote decision making is very difficult.

>> You mentioned momentum and the importance of momentum in some ways.

>> Yeah. Critics have suggested that momentum was a challenge for the $20 billion fund and the speed with which it was deployed and the high prices. Just

with the wisdom and experience you have, Jerry, I'm fascinated. How do you reflect on that fund? one correlation

you can look across all VC um funds and look at their vintage whether it's a 99 vintage or 2004 2005 vintage and the one

correlation you can make to success was timing timing if you did a if you did a fund in 2005 2006 you know you were in great

shape to take advantage of the mobile thing that started happening in 200 08 when Steve Jobs got 10 million subscribers from AT&T, that's when

mobile became real. And so if you had a 0506 fund, you had a chance to get some of the best most iconic companies, right? But if you started a fund in

right? But if you started a fund in 2009, ah, you're going to miss being early in Twitter, you're going to miss being early in Facebook, you're going to miss being in Uber, you're going to miss all

that. So timing is the most important

that. So timing is the most important thing. Whether you're early stage or

thing. Whether you're early stage or late stage, we can't apply it to just an overall general strategy. Depends on the timing of when you did the investment.

>> Do you think now is the best time ever to be starting a new fund?

>> Absolutely. Absolutely the best time cuz you're in a sea change. Humans are no longer going to be the decision makers about software. It's going to be

about software. It's going to be autonomous agents. This sea change, this

autonomous agents. This sea change, this tsunami is so different than anything that's come in the past that people that embrace this new model can embrace it

from scratch right now and have a huge advantage over people that have been successful with older models that don't quite move fast enough cuz they've already rich. They already made a lot of

already rich. They already made a lot of money. I don't, you know, hard to get

money. I don't, you know, hard to get old old dogs to move fast. How do you feel about getting back in the game then, Jerry? You're doing this show with

then, Jerry? You're doing this show with me. You're talking about

me. You're talking about autonomizations.

Like, seems like you're here. Here's the Here's the secret.

here. Here's the Here's the secret.

Here's the the real secret.

>> I never left the game. I retired from inside. I retired from negotiating term

inside. I retired from negotiating term sheets. I retired from board seats. I

sheets. I retired from board seats. I

retired from internal investment committee meetings. I retired from

committee meetings. I retired from having dinners with LPS and answering LP phone calls, but I didn't retire. Um, I

haven't done a single investment on my own that someone didn't bring me that I love and I trust. Every investment that I've done, which is over a hundred, has

come from someone close to me and said, "Jerry, I need your help to help me think about this thing." And through that process of trying to help someone

else, I end up in it. And that's been fun because it's a it's it's a it's an experience that I'm that you're not doing on your own. You're an experience you're doing with people you care about.

>> Final one before we do a quick fire. Do

you believe the future of venture is like the go big or go home? We see

Andrew and raise 15. We have Insight a mega platform. We have the mega

mega platform. We have the mega platforms of GC and Lighteed. Is it go big or go home now? That's the only way I played the game.

And I mean, I went big on my things, you know, when I invested in Twitter in 2009. Um,

2009. Um, there was 30 something people, no revenue. My fund were like, are you

revenue. My fund were like, are you kidding me? We It was a It was a

kidding me? We It was a It was a watershed moment that my partners allowed me to make that investment.

>> What did you What did you see? what I

saw and this is really interesting like our early investments.

The idea of the of the of Twitter which I call the status update for the world was so

brilliant, so over the top. It was far better than anybody on the team's ability to execute against it. So, I

think Twitter could have been infinitely a more interesting company, but VCs got involved and created politics and they fired Jack Dorsey early and I don't know if that was right or wrong, but they

created issues and the company was pretty messed up from that trauma of firing one of the founders. And at the same time, they were very excited and

the community was growing, the community was helping it. And for me, I saw an incredible idea that wasn't easily replicated. And there was enough

replicated. And there was enough momentum to it that this was for me a no-brainer. And it was the the bet that

no-brainer. And it was the the bet that I put my entire reputation on the line.

I got Jeff Hin and Devin Perk to jump in with me on this. And we I pushed really really hard. We did that investment in

really hard. We did that investment in less than 30 days from the time I met the team and the time we closed and it turned out to be a watershed investment

for the company and got us into lots of things like consumer and things we were doing at the time and um that was uh that was just because the quality of

that idea was insanely great.

>> Did you ever have a trough in confidence?

Um, I was lucky because I was losing money every year I've been in this business. I failed. So, I was always,

business. I failed. So, I was always, you know, balanced in that I knew I was going to fail. I knew it was going to be miserable, but I knew I was going to win

some, you know, and, you know, we were fortunate to do what we did. Um, you

know, we were very, very fortunate, but failure to me was always part of my job and I had to just suck it up. And so

there was nothing that came down the pipe that that that caused me to lose confidence because I'd been taking and dealing with it from day one.

>> Listen, I'm going to do a quick fire around with you. So I say a short statement, you give me your immediate thoughts.

>> Yeah.

>> What advice would you give to a graduate entering the workforce today looking for a job for the first time? I would have him go buy a Mac Mini, have an open

claw, and go to the uh J job interview with his open claw.

>> Who is the best sourcer? When they bring you a deal, you pay most attention to it.

>> Oh, that's easy. The partners at Insight. I mean, what what we've really

Insight. I mean, what what we've really built is one of the great sourcing engines of the world. I mean, uh, Mike Triplet, Jeff Lieberman, uh, Devin,

these guys all just were focused on sourcing and managing their teams and they and to get through the gauntlet of insight, due diligence, and get to

something that could be funded was a pretty big accomplishment. And so, um, I think that those guys were the absolute best sources in the world.

>> Who is the single best picker that you know? Like, they see value where others

know? Like, they see value where others don't.

one.

>> I don't want to build egos up, but Peter Fenton, uh, John Door early on. Um,

those guys were astounding at picking deals.

>> What is the single most memorable first MA founder meeting you've had?

>> Oh, wow. This is not going to be a quick thing.

>> We We edit the shows, dude.

>> Okay. I I had the founders of True Caller in Sweden come to Aspen. I said,

"I'm not going to invest in them." But

they took their last dollars to get a plane ticket to Aspen and they came to me and it was this was written about in the information by Amira, the story about it. But basically, these guys were

about it. But basically, these guys were nice guys and I couldn't let them down.

I didn't want I told him I don't want to invest, but I'll help you. And I ended up helping them and giving them some money and making it a successful company. and it went public a few years

company. and it went public a few years ago and it was a great company for a number of years but that's one I did not want to go into and I didn't want to go to Sweden but I like the guy so much and

they came to ask and I said okay I got to do it >> what's the difference between a used car salesman and a software salesman >> the used car salesman knows that he's

lying >> I love it um you've got you've got open AI you've You've got Anthropic and you've got Grock. Which would you most

want to be in as an ambassador?

>> It depends what stage you get me a shot in.

>> I'm I'm getting you a shot in Open AI at 500 and I'm giving you Anthropic at 380.

>> That's a I take them both.

I take them both. But I think I I I I think for me it's it's open AI because I got 800 million people using it.

>> Wow. really

>> 800 million. I mean, you got 800 million people doing it. When you cross a billion, then you're there. Like, I'm

not that big a Bitcoin fan. I'm big in in a couple of crypto things, but until you get to a billion users, I'm suspicious of of any consumer technology.

>> I get you, but do you not think Gemini and Google can still wipe the floor with the distribution advantage that they have, Demis, and the speed that they're moving?

they can and they are long-term better assets. They've got if I have an

assets. They've got if I have an autonomous agent business and I've got Gmail, you're going to have a phenomenal asset that OpenAI doesn't have. Um, but

the but the issue is who's got 800 million people getting to a billion first. I mean, that just I mean, look, you can say there's a

billion users on their other properties like YouTube and things. If you can convert OpenAI's chatbot to my own Jerry

Murdoch autonomous agent from chat DPT, which is I think what Peter Steinberger is going to do, you're going to have an insanely great business.

>> What do people not know about having money that they should know?

>> Very e very easy answer. Money does not come with instructions.

Just remember that. Well, everything

else you buy, you get, you know, you got a Rivian, it comes with instructions.

You get an iPhone, it comes with instructions. Money doesn't come with

instructions. Money doesn't come with instructions. So, you need to learn to

instructions. So, you need to learn to respect it. It's energy. Money is the

respect it. It's energy. Money is the equivalent of energy and you need to respect it. You know, you don't just uh

respect it. You know, you don't just uh leave the lights on at home and the air conditioner on your home all day long while you're gone. You respect energy.

You you treat it with respect and you use it for good and you use it to make things happen. And you don't waste it

things happen. And you don't waste it foolishly being an idiot. You know, you don't want to go to Las Vegas and hand out $100 bills to just random people.

Take that energy and do something great.

I mean, I don't know. As Larry Paige has said, if he had extra money, he'd just give it to Elon to let him build things to change the world. Um, you know, um I

I think that that if you've got money, you've got energy, you can give it to entrepreneurs that'll do amazing things.

You had kids quite later in life.

>> Yeah.

>> You wish you'd had them earlier.

>> Well, it you know, it's like if you've had a fantastic life, you look back and you say, "It's already great. Why would

I change it?" You know, number one.

Number two, that guy when I was younger, he wasn't ready for kids. All he was doing was building a business. He was

building >> possible to build insight if you'd had kids during >> I would have been divorced and a pretty sad character probably. Look, I mean

when Jeff and I went out to raise money and we were getting sand kicked in our face. He was 30. I was 35 or 36. We both

face. He was 30. I was 35 or 36. We both

had acne. I mean, nobody wanted to give us money. Me, that guy with kids, like I

us money. Me, that guy with kids, like I I can't imagine him, you know? I imagine

he's a disaster. What was the breakout moment? You said there, you know, sand

moment? You said there, you know, sand kicked in face money and then you raised $20 billion funds now in single moments.

What was the breakout? Was it a Twitter?

Was it a It was the fact that we survived 9/11.

>> I mean, if you want to know, Insight had incredible funds. You know, funds one,

incredible funds. You know, funds one, these incredible successes. Fund one and two are still some of our best funds ever. And then fund three, our 99 fund

ever. And then fund three, our 99 fund was like all challenged and it it it did pretty well all things considered. But

the fact that we survived that collapse, a lot of VC firms were zombies, walking dead, partners splitting up, people going different directions. We hung in there. We hung in there and survived.

there. We hung in there and survived.

That's the breakthrough moment.

>> What's the biggest parenting advice you give me now knowing what you know as a papa? Your kids are always always

papa? Your kids are always always watching you. So use that as an

watching you. So use that as an opportunity to be your best self. Put

your heart first and be your best self every moment of the day that you can with those kids.

>> Final one. What are you most excited for in the next 10 years? Jerry, I like optimism. We sit in this incredible

optimism. We sit in this incredible moment in technology in terms of development, adoption. What are you most

development, adoption. What are you most excited for? There was a movie in the

excited for? There was a movie in the 1950s called The Long Hot Summer and the character Big Daddy was uh dying of cancer. And at the end of the movie,

cancer. And at the end of the movie, things were working out with the family and he says, "I feel like I'm going to live forever." And I think about

live forever." And I think about autonomous agents and AI and maybe it's going to help me live forever.

>> That's what I think.

>> I I actually do think it will increase longevity significantly in the next 20 years. Yeah. Do you agree?

years. Yeah. Do you agree?

>> Yeah. I mean, what I've heard is if you can live another five years, you're going to extend another five years. So,

if you're whatever state of health you're in today, if you make it five five years, you're going to at least get five years in the back end.

>> Jerry, you're a star. Thank you so much for this.

>> It's great and great catching up with you again, Harry.