Three Questions That Will Decide the Fate of the World - Prof Jiang Xueqin

We continue our analysis of the US Iran war. And in this war, there are three

war. And in this war, there are three major questions that will determine the outcome of this war as well as the world afterwards.

Okay. And these three questions are number one, will the US launch a ground invasion?

So right now the United States and Israel are primarily focused on a ear war striking um Iran from a distance. In the past we

would call this siege warfare.

And as long as it remains an ear war, the United States can choose to deescalate and withdraw from the Middle East. They would lose this war, but the

East. They would lose this war, but the loss would not be catastrophic.

Whereas if they choose to launch a ground invasion, it would escalate very quickly and they would be trapped in Iran for the next 5

to 10 years. It would be a catastrophe whether or not they win or lose because in order to fight a ground war, the United States would have to institute a

national draft where young men um as young as 18 will be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in Iran. Okay,

so that's the first big question for us.

Will the United States send in ground troops? Remember this. There's the idea

troops? Remember this. There's the idea of mission creep where maybe in the beginning you're like, I'll send out a thousand troops to do a small mission, but then

it doesn't go well. So, you send in 2,000. Okay, it slowly creeps up. It's

2,000. Okay, it slowly creeps up. It's

what we call mission creep. And that's

how the United States enrolled itself in Vietnam. All right, so that's the first

Vietnam. All right, so that's the first big question. Second big question is,

big question. Second big question is, will nukes be used?

There's a lot of concern online that Israel is preparing a nuclear strike on Iran because the Israelis don't like how the world how

how the war is going and they want to reclaim the initiative.

Nukes are a taboo in geopolitics.

The Americans used them at the end of World War II and no one's used them ever since.

If Israel were to use tactical nuclear weapons, they would break this universal taboo and we might find ourselves in a nuclear apocalypse. Okay, so that's a

nuclear apocalypse. Okay, so that's a great concern that everyone has right now. And the third question is the Al

now. And the third question is the Al Axac mosque.

This is the third holiest site in the Islamic world. There's Mecca, there's

Islamic world. There's Mecca, there's Medina, and there's an Alax mosque. The

the Muslims believe that it is from the alaxic mosque in Jerusalem where Muhammad ascended to heaven

and the Jews believe that the Alexic mosque sits on the site of their temple which is the house of God. So

religious Jews, extremists want to destroy the Alexic mosque to rebuild the third temple.

And if the religious Jews, the extremists destroy the Azac mosque, then the two billion Muslims in this world

would be religiously obligated to go to war against Ishel. Okay. So these are

the three big questions that um uh will determine how this war will determine the future of the world. Okay.

So um in this class I teach you game theory to make predictions about the future. So right now I'm going to make

future. So right now I'm going to make three predictions.

Um, and then I'm I will show you my analysis as to how I make these predictions. Okay? Now, what's what's

predictions. Okay? Now, what's what's important to understand is that these are only my guesses based on my analysis and whether or not they turn out correct

will determine the validity of my analysis. I don't have inside

analysis. I don't have inside information. I don't know more than you

information. I don't know more than you do. Okay? I'm just working out of public

do. Okay? I'm just working out of public knowledge and doing game theory analysis. So according to game theory,

analysis. So according to game theory, this is yes, the United States will send in ground troops. According to game theory, this is no.

And number three is yes.

Okay. So what I'm going to do is my next two classes explaining to you my game theory analysis as to how I come to these conclusions and we can watch how

world events unfold. Now I want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my analysis to be valid. I have to be I have to be

be valid. I have to be I have to be correct on all three. Okay? If I miss one then all my theory is wrong.

Um, I know there's a lot of concern from around the world that nukes will be used and I am 100% confident that nukes will

not be used at this time in this war.

And if I'm wrong, I apologize to the world. Okay? But at the same time, we'll

world. Okay? But at the same time, we'll all be dead anyway. So, it doesn't really matter. All right? Okay. All

really matter. All right? Okay. All

right. So let me explain my analysis.

Okay. So remember today what I'm going to do is do number one and number two explain to you why Israel will not use nuclear weapons and why there will be a ground invasion. And then next class

ground invasion. And then next class I'll explain number three to you. Okay.

That's a plan for this week.

All right. So to understand what's going on, I need to I need to teach you some basic geopolitical theory. Okay. So in

military u affairs in geopolitics there's a concept called escalation ladder.

Escalation ladder.

Okay.

And the dominant theory is that whoever has estrogen dominance has the most advantage. Okay. So, so

what this means is let's just say you and I get in a fight. Okay, I have a knife. You have a gun. Well, gun is more

knife. You have a gun. Well, gun is more dominant than a knife. Therefore, you

have a greater advantage over me and therefore you should win in theory.

Okay?

And apply to this war in the Middle East. Israel and United States have

East. Israel and United States have escalation dominance because they have nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't.

Therefore, the United States and Israel have a huge advantage over Iran. Okay?

But what I will show you today is that this theory is incorrect. It actually

doesn't work that way. Right? So, let's

start off with a very simple um example. Let's just say that two people

example. Let's just say that two people get into a fight. Okay? A and B.

And how the escalation ladder will work is that maybe A and B run into each other. Okay? And then A says, "Hey man,

other. Okay? And then A says, "Hey man, say sorry." And then B is like, "It's

say sorry." And then B is like, "It's not my fault. You say um sorry." Okay?

So there's a conflict and it's usually a very small conflict. No one knows uh why and no one knows who's at fault.

Okay? So they start cursing each other.

Okay? So the first step is a conflict.

Second step is they start cursing each other, right? Screw you.

other, right? Screw you.

Screw you.

And then they might start pushing each other right?

Push. Push. And then they hit each other. Okay. Punch. Punch. And

then they start the fight.

And then one pulls out a knife and the other pulls out a gun. All right. and

then B should a fight over right okay so there are certain things that we need to keep in mind about this example first of

all the fight is not contained in itself okay you cannot perceive this game as just one between A and B who's physically stronger there are other

players involved as well okay so for example there are spec spectators or friends, there's a crowd watching you. Okay, this

is important because there's also the police, right? Eventually the police

police, right? Eventually the police will come um the government and they'll ask people, "Hey, what happened, man? Whose

fault was it?" Right? And also for people who are religious, there's also God, right? If you die, you have to go

God, right? If you die, you have to go up to God heaven and God's going to ask you, "Hey, man, how did you die?" So you have to explain how you died.

All right? So in other words, in this escalation ladder, there's three factors that you have to consider that drive people up this escalation ladder. These

three factors are of course emotions.

Second uh is power and the third is reason or logic.

Okay? And what drives people up is adrenaline.

In other words, it is impossible to go to skip the escalation ladder, right?

You don't go from like, "Hey, screw you," to like the guy pulling out a gun and shooting you, okay? You have to go step by step by step because adrenaline is rushing in your system. And this

adrenaline, it's making you more angry, but it's also making you stronger and more resolved. And it's also telling you

more resolved. And it's also telling you how to fight this battle. Okay? And the

thing to remember about this is this is really important is that it's not about how fast you climb up the escalation ladder. Okay? If you get too angry and

ladder. Okay? If you get too angry and you overreact, then you are at fault, right?

What you want to do is climb it up strategically. And that means you have

strategically. And that means you have to remain calm and controlled. Because

if you remain calm and controlled, you have three advantages over your opponent. The first is

opponent. The first is um focus, second is clarity, and the third is

um focus uh you you're clear and resolve. Okay,

sorry, resolve. Okay, what this means is like you know what you're doing. You

have a strategy. You are clear about how to achieve your strategy and your goal and you are determined to achieve it.

Okay. But in order to have all three, you have to remain calm and therefore you need to control yourself as you climb up this escalation ladder. Because

remember, it's just not about being your opponent. It's about justifying yourself

opponent. It's about justifying yourself to your friends, to the police, and to God as well. Because you might hit that person, he might go to hospital, and you've won the fight, but then you go to

you go you go to prison for 10 years, in which case you've lost the fight. Okay?

All right. So the main idea I want you to remember is this and this is the law of escalation.

Okay, this is a very important idea in my game theory model.

Control is more important than dominance.

Okay, control is more important than dominance. Why? Because control is the

dominance. Why? Because control is the idea of calibration.

Calibration means that you time or you structure or you strategize your response in a way that helps you achieve your strategic objective. Okay? You're

not just throwing punches. You're

throwing a punch in a certain way that allows you to defend yourself that strikes fear in the opponent and also

allows you to seem as the good guy among spectators.

Okay? And then when the police come, you can justify why you threw the punch in a certain way to the police so that you don't go to jail. Okay? All right. So

another way of saying this is that calibration is ultimately about strategic flexibility.

And the idea of strategic flexibility is in a fight, the person who has the most options, the person who um

has the most flexible strategy will usually win the fight. Okay? There's a

lot of escalation and I'll explain to you how this applies to the US Iran war.

Okay. All right. So before I actually talk about the war, what I what I want to do is do is what I want to do is do a thought experiment to examine how we're

going to understand what's going on between United States and Iran. Okay. So

let's do a thought experiment. And

thought experiment is this. Let's just

say that there's a bully. Okay?

and he's the biggest guy in the school and he has a gang. Okay, these are his friends and there's like uh maybe four of them.

And so what they do is they basically pray on everyone at the school. Okay? And there's maybe a

school. Okay? And there's maybe a hundred people at the school, right?

And so what they do is they make everyone in the cafeteria pay a tax.

Okay? If you want to go in the cafeteria and eat, you have to pay a tax. Maybe a

dollar, who knows? Okay? And the friends of the bully go collect the tax and then give him all the money. Okay?

And that is the structure of the school where if you want to eat lunch in the cafeteria, you have to pay a tax and the bully's friends collect the money and

the bully shares the money among amongst his gang. Okay. Now, at first people are

his gang. Okay. Now, at first people are okay with this system because think that it's actually beneficial because the bully is keeping the peace and order in

the cafeteria, right? He's keeping

everyone safe. So yeah, I pay a dollar, but it's not that much money and we're all safe so that we can all enjoy our lunch in peace in the cafeteria. Okay,

but then what happens over time is that the bully gets more and more arrogant because he feels invincible. Everyone just obeys

feels invincible. Everyone just obeys him. So he develops the idea of hubris.

him. So he develops the idea of hubris.

And the idea of hubris is that no one's no one has the courage to challenge me.

Everyone's afraid of me and therefore I can do what I want. So what does he do?

Well, the first thing he does is that he charges more money from everyone. Okay?

So the tax goes up and so people are disgruntled about this. Okay? They don't

understand why they're paying more to the bully. Okay? But not only that, but

the bully. Okay? But not only that, but what he will also do is pay less money to his friends so that he can have more money because he wants to buy a car or

he wants to go to Paris for the summer.

Okay, does that make sense? Okay, so

everyone's not happy about this, but but this the reality that they live in and there's nothing they can do about it and so people just put up with it. One day a

new kid comes into the school. Okay, the

new kid and he doesn't really understand the rules of the game. He goes to cafeteria and he doesn't know he's supposed to pay a tax,

right? So the bully's friend comes over

right? So the bully's friend comes over and says, "Hey man, where's where's a dollar?" And he's like, "What dollar? I

dollar?" And he's like, "What dollar? I

just got here." And he refuses to pay.

And so what they decide to do is teach him a lesson by ostracizing him, by making him sit alone by himself in the cafeteria. Okay? You have no friends

cafeteria. Okay? You have no friends because you don't know the rules and you refuse to play along. And the new kid is like, "I don't care. I'm happy not having any friends." Okay? And so then

the bullying and his friends start to discuss, "How can we get this new kid to play along?"

play along?" And so they decide what they're going to do is they're going to curse him.

They're going to bully him. Okay? So the

new kid goes to lunch and he's eating his lunch and the friends come down and start to curse him. Says, "You're a wimp. Do you want to fight us?" And what

wimp. Do you want to fight us?" And what the new kid does is he just ignores the these these guys. And these guys are like, "What's going on, man? Why is he

afraid of us?" And slowly what happens is that the other people, the other kids recognize that, wow, maybe it is possible to rebel against

the bully. Maybe it is possible not to

the bully. Maybe it is possible not to pay these stupid taxes.

And so they start talking to him secretly, okay? They give him presents.

secretly, okay? They give him presents.

They start say smile at him. They say hi to him. Okay? But the new kid just

to him. Okay? But the new kid just ignores everything, right? And then the friends are like, "You know what? We

don't actually benefit this much from this relationship anyway. Maybe if we appoint this new kid as the new bully, the new boss, he'll treat us better."

And then you have other friends who are like, "You know what? This bully, he's he's fat, he's ugly. Maybe I should be the boss." Okay. So just because a new

the boss." Okay. So just because a new kid comes in, doesn't know the rules, and he's willing to challenge the reality, challenge the assumptions, the

values of this cafeteria. Now there's

dissent. Now there's rebellion going on.

Okay? And different people are talking to him and um trying to form alliances with him.

But what he does, and it's really really interesting, is that he just ignores everyone and keeps focused. Okay. And

then one day, um, the bully's friend comes over and says, "You know what?

You're a whip." And the new kid finally says, "I'm not afraid of you." Okay. And

this friend goes back and tells his boss, "Hey, this new kid said, he's not afraid of you, man. What are you going to do about it?" The new and the bully gets really angry. Says, "I'm going to

go punch his face." Okay. So, the bully goes in front of N and says, "If you don't apologize, I'm going to PUNCH YOU IN THE FACE." And

Luke is like, "What did I do wrong? What

should I apologize for?" And the bully's kind of confused, so he goes away, comes out the next day AND SAYS, "YOU APOLOGIZE NOW, MAN." AND THE KID is like, "Okay, for what? Tell me tell me

to apologize for what?" And this goes on for a long time. Okay. And then

eventually the bully gets so pissed off that he punches the new kid in the face.

Okay, so he started it. The new kid he's he's he's um uh hurt, but he decides to punch the bully back in the face. Okay,

and the bully stronger. So he beats the bully up. So he beats up the new kid.

bully up. So he beats up the new kid.

But what's happened now is that everyone in the school has seen that the bully is not that strong. everyone's seen that

the bully is actually um pretty weak and so they recognize that hey if we stand alongside the new kid we can beat the bully.

All right and eventually what happens is the bully is defeated. Does that make sense to you guys? All right. So certain

things to understand is that yes, the bully has escalation dominance because he's stronger and he's the biggest kid in the school. He he can

beat up everyone. But what wins the fight is control. What wins the fight is collaboration. uh sorry cal calibration

collaboration. uh sorry cal calibration strategic flexibility the fact that the new kid has many different options and he's picking the option that is most strategically

advantage to him.

Okay. Now and what you will notice from this example is the bully doesn't have that many options actually because he needs to maintain the idea of face or

credibility. Right?

credibility. Right?

This is the essence of his power. The

his power lies in the fact that if you not listen to him, if you not obey him, he will come and beat the crap out of you. Right? That's credibility.

you. Right? That's credibility.

And he doesn't. But the moment that you show that it's actually it's actually not that big of a deal to be punched by him. He's not that strong. Then he loses

him. He's not that strong. Then he loses all credibility. Okay? Which means that

all credibility. Okay? Which means that he either retreats or he's forced to strike harder to kill you. Okay? To

maintain his credibility. So another way of saying this is that um by calibrating your movements

strategically, you can manipulate the bully into selfdestruction.

Does that make sense you guys? All

right, any questions?