TR39: Dylan's "Favorite" Semi Equipment, Intel, China

Bring it to sounds.

>> We're back.

>> Welcome to Transistor Radio.

[Music]

>> The amount of ponytails

>> I see in the playgrounds is truly

obscene.

All those sevenyear-old girls have these

like 6 in, you know, like no like six,

we're gonna get copyrighted, right?

Like,

>> oh yeah, we're

>> demonetized.

We have none of us about monetizing this

except Jordan, you know, greedy greedy

Jordan.

>> Greedy Jordan sluming it here in the

national security podcast community. You

guys are my transistor radio is my

ticket out.

>> Jordan's not greedy. All right. He

resisted multiple VC offers to buy him

out. He He's He's a moral human being.

All right. We tested him recently.

>> Actually got an offer to be bought out

or what happened?

>> No comment. No comment.

>> Compromised through acquisition talks

with semi analysis.

>> Well, no, no, no. I mean, the offer's on

the table for uh for John to be

acquired, you know.

>> Yeah, I haven't earned my keep yet. It's

I understand. We'll keep we'll keep

grinding. Wait, Jordan, do you want to

be the lead of all media and China

analysis at semi analysis?

>> No, I want to be vibe coder and chief,

man. That's way

>> you can do that. You can do that because

we're a company with no titles.

>> Great.

>> For an example, for example, way here,

his title is literally uh head of

like

>> totally made it up. Me and Dylan

>> like my life for

>> like Starcraft

>> like Starcraft

>> Weey and I's first conversation was how

I was way better at the him at

Starcraft. So like

>> hold on the the ranking systems back

then weren't super clear. Like

>> I mean I was it was Wings of Liberty

days.

>> I know. And like Diamond was peak,

wasn't it?

>> No, they had masters then. They had

masters in GM too.

>> I I might have clipped.

>> Okay. Transistor Radio's better. Welcome

back.

>> Fine. Fine. Fine. But we're having a

chip chat and today's going to be

especially unhinged because we have a

lot of topics to talk about.

>> Oh my god. Okay, we've got so many AI

releases. We've got Nvidia Nvidia and

Trump saving Intel. We've got Huawei

doing stuff. Maybe still needs a whole

lot more HBM to do more stuff. Where do

we want to start? Chat.

Oh, wait. There's no chat. We got

>> Let's Let's talk about like I don't know

who here has watched K-pop Demon

Hunters. and curious.

>> [ __ ] I'm literally the only one. And

guess what? I'm also the only single

one. It's [ __ ] over.

The face when you can't watch social

media pop culture icon that is K-pop

demon hunters because you have no one to

watch it with and you refuse to watch it

alone because you know how cringe is

that?

>> You can watch things alone, bro. You can

just get it sloppified in 30 seconds. I

just have to accept it, Dylan. It's

okay.

>> Now, today we're going to rank all of

What is the honeymoon? Who is the demon

king? And let's let's make the entire AI

What is the AI one to one?

>> Yes. Yes.

>> No, no, no, no.

>> There's nothing to be spoiled.

>> Save the golden moon for later.

>> Okay.

>> Okay. So, the golden moon is the mandate

of heaven. We'll just use that analogy.

Who has it?

>> I mean,

>> what song will be number one?

>> The whole moon right now. Who's

harmonizing the battle? Is there a way

you can relate this to semiconductors?

That way I'll at least understand half

of the references.

>> We already changed. Okay, we did Mandate

of Heaven, bro. But your call,

>> you know,

>> I feel like we do Mandate of Heaven

every two episodes.

>> Well, it's cuz we It's It's supposed to

be every quarter, but you guys keep

[ __ ] not showing up. So,

>> one episode on the Mandate of Heaven.

>> New Made of Heaven every episode.

>> Easy content. All right. Okay. All

right. We Let's start with the Intel

Nvidia stuff or Intel or just Nvidia.

How about just Nvidia stuff, right?

They've been doing so much.

>> Nvidia's back.

>> GTC GTC GTC DC. I'll see you there. Um

my favorite take is that I expect the

Apple announcement to be done at um

Nvidia GTC for no reason other than uh

Trump is going to go walk out on stage.

Intel LBT will be there and then it'll

be like wait one more guest and Trump

will be in the audience of course and

then Tim Apple walks on stage and says I

want to invest in

>> No, no, no, no. You've got this all

wrong. Trump would never allow himself

to not be on stage during this.

>> Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry. He's on a

throne elevated above the people. Uh,

and then they and then he comes out on

stage and Tim Apple is actually crawling

on all four on all four limbs and he

says, "Uh, I will now invest in Intel."

and then he stands up and then then we

have all the other you know Andy Jasse

will be crawling and then he says I will

now invest in intel and then he stands

up then that's that's the way the whole

like Catholic thing where you're

crawling on the cobblestone as you go to

the church like like the Mexican

Catholic

>> brother

>> Spanish isn't it? Yes, except for it's

Intel 50% of production in America soon.

TM

>> Wait, wait. I still don't like I've

asked a couple people. I don't

understand this one to one thing right

on the tariffs like like legitimately

like I saw the headlines people are like

messaging all about. I'm like I don't

understand what one even means.

>> One transistor.

>> Yeah. One transistor to one transistor.

And then Lutnik trying to pull some like

like uh mobster [ __ ] on Taiwan, saying

unless you move 50% of your

capacity to the US, we're not going to

protect you anymore.

>> Sure. Okay, guys.

>> Um,

>> but are we feeling good? I mean, well,

the thing about the Nvidia Intel example

was they didn't say they were going to

use Foundry, right?

>> No.

>> Like step up and say like, I'm doing

this. We're actually making chips with

you.

>> The interesting thing is they even

capable of making chips like outside of

x86 chips.

>> Yeah, it's a it's a CPU plus uh

packaging play, but not actually um not

actually a chip

>> like fabbing.

>> Do you think I mean though is it's kind

of interesting that TS would TSMC be

packaging doing any packaging or is it

Intel doing the packaging?

>> Right, makes sense. TSMC doesn't package

other people's stuff.

>> Honestly, how I see it is that it's

going to end up being like an M1

competitor with Nvidia and Intel

in a gaming laptop with a triplet from

Intel package at at Intel. And they'll

make 40 of them.

>> Yeah, I think they can make a lot.

>> I think they can make a lot. I'm [ __ ]

I'm meing around here. They'll make

40,000 of them.

>> Trump will have them.

Yeah, it'll be the it'll be it'll become

the default laptop is semi analysis.

Everyone will get one.

>> We we we did we did make sure that the

default laptop is an Intel laptop cuz

>> Yeah, we did.

>> NGMI

>> I I have a freaking boomer laptop, bro.

>> Oh, so maybe this is the thing is just

Trump mandate every every company he

takes a bite out of. He like says the

federal government has to like purchase

what they have. So like everyone in DHS

working on.

>> It's all just vibes, man. You're

thinking you're you're thinking way too

hard.

>> It's all just vibes.

>> Intel in every home for every child, for

every person.

>> And Nvidia,

>> everyone.

>> But yeah, I expect

>> Everyone needs a GPU, man.

>> Dude, Greg was saying did it with EVs,

right? So, I think I think it's got to

work.

>> Greg Brockman is saying everyone needs a

GPU. That's $500 trillion to spend.

We're going to get there, guys.

>> Why?

>> What? What do you mean? Why not?

>> Why not? Wait, why not? Why not in a

data center

in my house?

>> You want your AI you need?

>> All right. You don't want to share that

GPU with other people. All right. Cuz if

it's, you know, you're sharing your GPU

with other people, you know what they

say right?

>> Yeah. Not Not your weight's not your

waifu.

>> Not your weight. It's not your waifu.

>> No. Okay. Um, so realistically, uh, No.

No. Real I don't think it matters, man.

We're post We're post It's all vibes

now. Everyone gets a data center. Think

bigger, bro. the data center is

>> how come no one's been um waifu slop on

Twitter for Sora 2 launch like I've seen

a lot of like

>> cuz you've had it for like 45 seconds

dude

>> 30 30 minutes

>> also I have one more invite code left

>> wait no no no I still need to use it I

still need to use it

>> wait how do you have

>> actually give it away will get five

invite codes and you can send it to the

rest of the team and you have to

>> there's tons of invite codes in the semi

analysis slack dude

>> I just assume that

>> Doug just copy the

>> we I have investors is DMing me for

invite codes.

>> No, no, you got to keep one for I need I

need to actually I gave the invite code

I got from open eye people to to Doug

and then Doug's spreading it.

>> Okay. Okay. But but Dave Okay, David,

Cam, and Jeff all have one.

>> Just go to Slack, dude. This is not so

hard. Anyways, uh you know what? How

does this sound? The head the we'll have

a video instead of us talking to each

other. It'll all be us waifued and um

yeah, that's that's going to be the the

actual video for this.

>> That'll that'll be our thumbnail is

waifu Dylan Patel. Not Dylan Patel's

waifu. Dylan Patel as waifu.

>> Man, come on. I mean,

>> sorry. I mean, what better what better

companion for Dylan than himself?

>> Yeah.

>> Jesus,

>> he's just roasting me side.

>> Dude, there'll be a lot of cushion for

pushing.

>> Jesus,

>> it'll be K-pop

>> because no, you go on all these

podcasts, Dylan, no one will give you

[ __ ] That's like that's like the

problem.

>> That's true. That's true. You know, by

by by by me going on all these podcasts,

Transistor Radio rankings continue to

fall.

>> Wait, can we talk about how I'm I don't

know. I know. Since since we're talking

about me being, you know, like very like

a megalomania, not megalomaniac, what's

the right word?

>> Ego Egoomaniac.

>> Egoomaniac and a megalomaniac, right? Uh

um Sure. You know,

>> how come how come when I go on someone's

podcast, it's always the top viewed show

in like months, you know? Just got to

say. Just got to say.

This happened with A16Z.

It happened with Lex. Except for, you

know, I'm ignoring Modi and uh Putin and

uh

>> so so community adjusted IBIDA there.

Yeah.

>> I'm adjusting to not the [ __ ] people

in a war, right?

>> So a community adjusted IBIDA. Okay,

that's fine. We'll we'll take that

adjustment.

>> The Lexus and community adjusted EBIDA,

right? Uh I mean, we go down the list,

right? They're all It's all of them.

It's all of the ones I've been on

>> cuz people like

>> Transistor Radio yet.

>> Wait, wait, wait. The the one episode

without me. All I'm saying, right? All

I'm saying is everyone was bad. All I'm

saying

>> I don't know. Dylan Doug popped off on

that one. The Doug Doug Doug um uh that

was that was my favorite Doug

performance.

>> Wait, what did he do?

>> [ __ ] I didn't listen.

>> It's my second favorite Doug performance

after Steve Jobs in a Coffee Machine.

>> I don't remember, bro.

>> What about Mr. Hatachi. That's my

favorite John performance.

>> The best performance. I haven't

>> We haven't done enough of this to be

like self-referential. I'm sorry. We got

to get Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Hey, back to

>> All right.

>> We're already creating slob, dude.

>> So, we're feeling good. LBT, you know,

we I remember we recorded an episode

where we were worried they were It was

like It was like in the last episode we

did, it was the in between time where

Trump was saying that he should be fired

for being a communist spy. Um

>> Yeah. And I don't know. I think I think

we were right. I think he's, you know,

he's the best shot we get. Um, let him

let him run with it.

>> And also, I I'm just I'm like so bullish

for more announcements. I know this is

like very consensus at this point, but

literally I think like if you think

about it, it's your fiduciary duty as a

public company CEO to bribe Trump. And

this is one way you can paint his

investment. I just like I'm like

manifesting this. Close your eyes. a

year maybe like six months from now

Trump is gonna be like I made10 billion

dollars for the American tax people on

his like he's like he doubled his

investment in

>> in right like cuz the stock's up like 50

or 60 you bought it

>> no no no that's only five bro we got to

do math Dylan you got

>> the warrants are worth a lot now right

>> the warrants only only kick in on a

change of control

>> okay so so he bought it and then when he

when when he bought it went up like 10%

and then when when Nvidia bought it went

up like another 20, right? So, it's up

like 40%.

>> You can paint the mark. Yeah, you can

paint the mark, dude. We What I going to

say is Intel $100 per share. Andy Jasse

buying the last trunch. Just saying.

Just saying. Or or who who buys next?

Actually, let's let's speculate. This is

actually a good one. Who Who is the next

announcement? I think Apple is

consensus. Who's the one after that?

Trannium 3 cancel.

>> Whoa, that's not happening, bro.

Gaudy 4 replaces Tranium 3 as the

preferred accelerator for AWS.

>> All chip.

>> Amazon.

>> Allip more than basic.

>> More than basic. Oh yeah. All

>> wait. This is this would be amazing,

right? Amazon subsistence level. Okay.

Amazon subsistence is the new version of

Amazon basic for a

>> third world Amazon. You can rely on

Amazon's assistance and gouty forum.

>> Wait, actually though all we all we do

is uh you know end this all chip Marll

debate

>> by getting Intel in there.

>> Absolutely. Get Intel in there.

>> Enough of this. Wait, there can't be and

like backend, front end, that Intel

everywhere.

>> That's what Emib

inside.

>> When's uh when's Qualcomm gonna show up

to the table?

I hope they don't.

>> They're They're trying to show up to the

table.

>> Wait, didn't they buy a Certis IP?

>> They bought Alpha Wave. Yeah.

>> Which apparently has problems for the

two G30s or at least rumored I heard.

But hey,

>> who doesn't have problem?

>> I mean, it's it's no Broadcom, so

Marbell.

>> Is it Is it Is it synopsis?

>> No. MediaTek.

>> Is it synopsis? Media's good.

>> Media's fine.

>> Is it synopsis level?

>> Yeah. Yeah, I think I think I think

they're like on 100 gig they were way

better than Synopsis and Cadence. On 200

gig it's it's it's a little bit better

maybe or on par.

>> Well, I mean the reason why I'm saying

is cuz you know have to do a fabled

alpha drop, right? Synopsis stability

rumor. Uh so maybe they maybe that's

alpha wave and Qualcomm for the third

ASIC vendor for tranium 3.

I'm totally trolling. Who else? Who else

could be in there?

>> For tranium or for tranium. Restranium.

Let's let's let's make market rumors.

Man,

this is this is how Taiwan works, right?

Except the only difference is we'd all

be in the same room and we'd be drinking

and then and then rumors get invented

and pushed.

>> Well, first they rumors get invented

like all of us buy the stock and then we

push it out to people online and then

people online forward it around and then

stocks go up and then you sell. This is

like this is how Taiwan market works.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Except the place with

>> bathroom breaks. I can confirm literally

true that that's where it mostly

happens.

>> Yeah. You know that there's a line to

the bathroom at market open for at TSMC.

>> Uh it's not the only not the only

company.

>> Wait, what? What do you mean?

>> Yeah. Like I mean

>> like they're just running to buy stock.

Yeah, but you have to do it in the

bathroom. So there's like a line to go

to the bathroom.

>> I'm sure they also DJ us, you know. So

morning's like the perfect

>> Yeah. So, but morning and then also when

they

>> Oh, guys, I went I went inside Fab 52 on

Sunday.

>> How was it?

>> It was [ __ ] sick. I went into Fab 52.

Um

>> John, did you go?

>> I saw I saw EUV Tools.

>> Um I saw other tools. Um, you know, it

it was really funny because it was like

it was like a bunch of like analysts in

media, but no one knew anything about

manufacturing except for me and Jeff.

Um, and me and Jeff and and like the the

tour the tour person was literally the

lithography manager at the FAB and we're

just like,

>> "Did you see Sculptor? Did you see

Sculptor?"

>> You know, I can't I can't drop that

alpha on here, bro.

>> What the [ __ ] man? You didn't even post

this [ __ ] on the Slack, dog.

>> We did talk about this on Slack. We did

talk about this on Slack, but you know,

we don't need to talk about this here.

You know, it's a it's alpha drops, alpha

drips.

>> Okay.

>> Alpha drip. But like, okay, so what was

really really cool

>> was um you know, you could see in Fab

42, they had a bunch of old model tools,

uh older than the FAB itself is, right?

Like they didn't use the most up-to-date

one. Um but like on Fab 52, it was like

much better. It's like, you know, cuz

Fab 42 is kind of old, but Fab 52 is

really new. and uh they don't have any

of the old model tools, which means they

stop doing their [ __ ] copy exact,

right? Um to the teeth degree, right?

Just buy the better tool and make it

work rather than like continuing to use

the shitty qualified tool that's old. Uh

I thought that was awesome. The other

thing that was really fun was like uh

seeing seeing like how many tools were

in there, right? And and all these other

things. Like it was just it was just

awesome experience. Um

>> did you get to [ __ ] the tool? That's my

only question. I I I wish. Dude, dude, I

would I would Could you

[ __ ]

No, no, no, wait. Could you put I was

gonna say, could you put your penis in

the ultra pure vacuum? Think about it.

Think about it. It' be so

>> If I had to put my penis inside of, by

the way, our female viewership continues

to

put my penis inside any of the [ __ ]

tools, right? It's probably a screen

cleaning tool because that that thing

spins real fast and it's water. It's

like lubricated like you know like that

that seems reasonable, right? Whereas

like I don't want a [ __ ] litho tool,

right? Like have you seen the wafer

stage and the reticle stage like

accelerate like 39 gs. Like I don't want

to [ __ ] have my dick propped off.

Like that's crazy. Like do I want to

[ __ ] do I want to [ __ ] stick my

[ __ ] in the collector of the [ __ ]

EUV tool? Like you you see all these

drops tip tip tip on your [ __ ] bubble

as a [ __ ] laser annihilates it. Like

no.

>> I'm so sorry.

>> This this has been demonetized.

>> Don't cut this. Jordan, don't cut this.

>> Okay. Wait, wait, wait, wait. So besides

the screen cleaning, what's number two?

Cuz I We can go pretty deep on this one.

>> No, you got to go.

>> Bottom out on it. Is that what you're

saying,

>> dude? I I I can't I can't top that.

We're done. We're done here. We're done

here.

>> We'll stop it. Okay. I mean, every major

tool vendor's in there, right? Like, you

know, like people, you know, it's not

like,

>> you know, it's really, really, really

hard to see which company's got which

tools.

>> Hard to see.

>> No, no, we mean like it's hard to

understand, right? Because you'll see a

deposition tool from Lamb and Applied

and tell

>> and it's like which one is which? What

are Or not which one is which, but what

are they doing,

>> right? Like,

>> yeah,

>> you know, what layers like I I you know,

it's like takes a [ __ ] trained eye,

>> right? And you'll see like you'll

literally see a CBD tool from multiple

companies and in like like rows away

from each other. It's like okay what

which one is which.

>> Yeah. I guess it's just like each layer

has different different spec and then

they're like

>> oh my favorite thing was they they

showed us like uh um they showed us a

regular lithography tool, right? Like a

a dry an ARF tool. Then they showed us

an ARFI tool and then they showed us an

EUV tool. And like you know you see the

videos and all that but like seeing it

up close and personal the size

difference like you know um some people

are size queens so

>> yeah.

>> Did you see the high UV tool?

>> Uh there's no there's no high in

Arizona.

>> Did they make your reticle size go up?

>> Package package size up. Reticle size

up.

>> I said ret I said reticle size up, dude.

Sorry. Okay. Okay. Okay. Excellent.

>> Um

>> okay. What else do we have here?

>> Mandative. mandated. Oh, Huawei.

>> Huawei. New chips. We want to do that.

>> Can I Can I do an alpha drop, Dylan? I

got a good one.

>> Okay.

>> It's uh the anthropic one. No, no, not

>> no. No, no, bro. Bro, bro, no.

>> Okay. Okay. I That's the one I want to

say. It's so bad about it.

>> We've already talked about it. Intel

Gouty 5.

>> No. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There you go.

We We were not talking about it.

>> Yeah. Yeah. like you know like the the

hypers skill stuff we do like the that's

like the culmination of all of our

stuff.

>> No no no no no no no that's not what I

was saying

>> like like training and TPU and all that

right.

>> No no no no no that's what I was that's

not what I was saying.

>> Oh okay. What are you talking about?

>> What are you talking about? What

anthropic stuff

>> dude how uh 80% of anthropic coding is

from outside of the United States.

>> Wait this coding agent.

>> Oh it's from their

>> bro. It's from the notes in the [ __ ]

Slack dog.

>> Yeah it's it's from

>> Dude. I'm sorry. There's [ __ ] 8,000

messages a day.

>> But but but but but

who is using it from outside the United

States? That's the real question.

>> Think about it. Think about it really

hard.

>> I mean,

>> Japan and Korea would

>> Indians and Eastern Europeans.

>> Japan and Korea are big.

>> Japan and Korea.

>> Wait, really?

>> Wait, is this for is this for claw code

or what was the exact

>> Do you know you know why that is, right?

>> Code.

>> Yep, I know why it is. That's what I'm

saying. That's the alpha drop.

>> Wait, why? Come on, think about it.

Anthropic has a very basic country

filtering mechanism.

>> Oh, okay. Okay, fine, fine, fine, fine.

>> Yeah.

>> Oh,

>> but they just um uh but they just said

they were ban I mean this was a new

announcement they made a few weeks ago

that they were banning uh uh even like

uh Chinese subsidiaries outside of uh

Oh, let me get I'll cut the

>> Yeah, sure. Sure. Enthropic can figure

out who's a Chinese subsidiary or not

when TSMC can't and the US government

can't and Nvidia can't. Oh yeah, I'm

sure they're B. Actually, they actually

like would ban Chinese.

>> Well, they actually they actually like

will try in a way where Nvidia like

couldn't give two shits. So

>> yeah, Nvidia does everything in their

power to stop

violations of their of the US export

controls. Come on. Corpo Dylan on

>> everyone come to DBC.

>> I just I think I just saw Jensen's hand

come out of his [ __ ] dude. When he

was

>> the ghost of Jens

>> in the He's like in the corner. He's

He's

slid underneath the table.

>> He's like behind. He's like,

>> "Oh shit."

>> What do you say? What did you say about

this?

>> That's what I thought. All right, Jill,

you get a chance to redeem yourself.

Jensen on uh podcast recently said that

China is nanoconds behind the US in

shipm.

>> You know, I think I think when you think

about the um the galactic time scale,

right? It is it is accurate that China

is nanconds behind the US when we think

about human civilization and the

progress that has been made and and you

when you when you juxtapose that against

the galactic time scale and how how

insignificantly small our time here has

been and how dangerous it is if we go to

war right if we have some you know

geopolitical incident you know I I think

he's right I think he's right they're

only nanconds behind uh and nanconds is

a few years

>> what about a plank

because as a China hawk, do you feel

that? Do you feel like that label is a

badge of shame?

>> Um, I don't think I'm a hawk. I think

I'm a [ __ ] bald eagle.

>> Like literally.

>> Oh,

>> at least he's saying the quiet part out

loud. you know, it's not uh we're no

playing games, no, you know, PR firms.

It's just look, that's if that's what he

thinks, then let him, you know,

>> No, I I mean I mean, he's doing a really

good job at at convincing people. Um and

and and you know, it's it's there is a

level of where it's like ridiculous to

ban too much [ __ ] from China. Uh because

they will just [ __ ] us really hard back.

Um there's a level where it doesn't make

sense, right? You know, like you don't

want them to have the best thing, you

don't want them nothing. like there's

some there's some middle ground now. Is

the middle ground where we were four

months ago or is it where it's today? Is

it after the B30 gets released? Um who

knows, right? Um where that where that

where that proper middle ground is

because everyone's just posturing,

right? Um and so when you read our piece

at semi analysis, it was like very

clear, right? like this is how much we

think production is across the time

scale of various um

you know various um you know from

various parts of the supply chain for

Huawei. Um and then in the accelerator

model also Cameracon if anyone cares. I

think we actually posted a social media

thread recently about it. So that's also

in the public but um you know so so when

you look at these two companies you know

what are they shipping uh what is the US

shipping you know what is the right like

deficit/lead for America to have you

know how much is it okay for China to

rent externally you I think I think you

know I it's it's funny to see like like

I think Trump I mean I think Jensen is

right that people need to just like say

what it is it's that they want to

economically slow down China like if

that's what you want to do just say that

right like you know all this nonsense

about oh you know AI is dangerous don't

do it you know everything else is fine

but not AI it's like no no no you just

want to economically slow down China

because you want the US to be a global

hedgeimony which is like not a different

opinion from you know I think most

people uh who are opining on the topic

but the method of you know sort of

keeping US hedgeimony is what's like the

difference right and so Jensen is so

smart that he's like he's made that

argument in a way that like the like EAS

and the like AI doomers don't haven't

found a good way to counter

>> they're less comfortable with yeah

>> they haven't found a way to properly

counterargue you know cuz what Trump is

I mean what I what what Jensen is saying

is is you know we win we win right like

you know it's it's it's it's you know we

win if we do what I say right not not we

lose if we do what I say I'm not being

greedy I'm making sure we make the money

and China is relying on us right and

that's his argument I don't you know

it's it's it's it's a very difficult

complicated ated question. Um it's it's

one of the top questions of our time. I

think I think when we go forward, you

know, 10 years, you know, it'll we'll

look back on it like like people look

back on like you know, decisions around,

you know, other major things like like

uh sovereignty for, you know, people

voting, whether it be, you know, women

or black people, right? It'll be the

same thing for AIs, right? And you know,

what what what we do with hardware and

the sovereignty there. Um we'll look

back and it'll it'll not be it'll not be

that great. incredibly

flaming hot take. I was going to say

what the actual [ __ ] was that, dude. Um,

okay. I was going to ask the only

question I had on it. Yeah, I was going

to say

the whole time. There was like bits and

>> I know I know you were trolling a little

bit. I was going to

>> I I I mean I was like, bro, the [ __ ]

legal team has has gotten to has gone to

Dylan. Okay, so my question is CXMT

actually HBM cuz like CXMT seems to be

very serious about the ramp um on HBM.

Do you agree disagree it's got a chance?

Is is there a future? Is there no

future? Walk me through CXMT. No care.

No. Okay, we've lost his attention. His

context windows collapsed.

>> Oh, no.

>> No. No. I I heard you. I heard you. It's

uh um Why Why do I have to be the Leo

dancer? Like, why why is there four

people?

>> Because all these [ __ ] people, it's

just you and me talking like 35% 45 50%

of the time. Or Jordan occasionally.

John, what do you think?

It's

>> 7 a.m. John, have you done a video on

CXM?

>> I have.

What? Is it accessible only on Patreon?

>> No, it's it's out, which means you

haven't watched it. Uh,

>> sorry. My YouTube recommendations are uh

are complete [ __ ] now.

>> Just like your Instagram

recommendations. Just like your

Instagram recommendations.

>> No, no, no. This is this is next level

of slop. Um,

>> okay. Back to Jensen. I don't even know

where you guys just took this

>> to stop the bleeding for the injured

man. But she had no idea that the person

she was saving was actually a ruthless

and decisive gang leader just because of

this kind.

>> My shorts are Chinese dramas. It's like

it's like the scheming woman uh tricked

the CEO and the CEO like was reborn and

it's like this [ __ ] like ch like oh

my god I'm infected.

>> This is 100% comp. What happens next

>> dude? I could send you a lot of videos

if you want.

>> Please do.

>> Jensen,

>> I still watch. It is frustrating for him

to say they are a nancond behind the US

and semiconductor manufacturing and then

have the logical conclusion not be oh

well actually the US can do something

about that and like we have levers here

when it comes to Huawei when it comes to

CXMT when it comes to Smick and even

though we could have pulled them a while

ago and haven't like that doesn't mean

that these firms aren't still depends

levers

top three lovers copy like I trust you

guys on your levers like HBM seems to

make a lot of sense.

>> Okay. Okay.

>> I'm just curious. I'm actually curious.

>> I mean

>> what

>> I mean just the way DM is. Is there any

>> equipment thing that you can do? I mean

they're throwing thousands of people

very smart people to squeeze everything

they can possibly do out of DRAM. I mean

the equipment doesn't necessarily need

to be that new

>> so I just don't know

>> needs to be new sure but like

>> is it UV no way and you don't need to be

UV and

>> I mean guys 25% of the cost of a process

for logic and it's like it's like 18 or

>> we're talking memory here

>> yeah it's 18 or 17% for DM like all the

value is not litho right like all the

value is

>> yeah I know

>> is is other stuff But what are you

squeezing out? So what are you kind of

putting So what are you sort of trying

to stop people from getting at CXMT? So

like

>> there's a lot of uh complicated EPI

tools for um for uh for making highk

metal gates for example. Um there's tons

of tools around uh etch uh that are that

need to be really really freaking good

to make the like like the capacitor etch

good. Um there's all sorts of different

like processes that just like I don't

know government doesn't care about

banning and you know I don't think they

ever will. Maybe it's too complicated.

Maybe they're too worried. There's also

like the risk of like you know just like

to be clear like you know we don't have

a unilateral hammer right like you know

there are consequences if we ban [ __ ]

right um from not from a business

perspective not talking about US

businesses [ __ ] them let them lose their

revenue. It's more like what China

retaliates with, right? Um,

>> and it's got to be like,

>> you know, the right amount of

>> I think Yeah.

>> Here's the thing is like the Biden

administration.

>> Yeah. For all it screwing up, didn't do

anything. So, like the ramp was slow and

steady. It wasn't like Liberation Day

where then all of a sudden China's like,

"Oh, I guess we it's time for us to

punch back now." And now that we've got

Dylan walking scared about rare earths.

>> No, no, it's not it's not even rare

earths. It's it's Taiwan. I think I

think people are silly, but Taiwan

Taiwan invasion risk is very much there.

>> And it's I think it's more real than

ever. Um

and I think I think America and the West

is absolutely [ __ ] if Taiwan is is

erased off the map. Right. Which is

which is, you know, one scenario. If

Taiwan is blockaded, that's another

scenario. The West is absolutely [ __ ]

Yeah. Over over a epi subsystem, Dylan.

Come on.

>> No, I mean it's it's it's it's constant

pushing against China, right? It's not

like one one thing gets you

>> Well,

>> it's it's got you've got to be really

like calculated and and and and smart

about what you

>> So, how do you how do you boil the boil

the frog is really what it comes out to?

You have to do it in a smart way that's

like dials, but you can't do too much or

the frog's going to jump out, right?

Like this is a whole process. Actually,

I wanted to ask because uh I heard uh

did you know guys see this rumor about

what what she is pushing for for the

biggest uh the biggest concession in

trade talks? Anyone? Anyone? Anyone?

>> Winters?

>> No. No. No. No. Close.

>> Close.

>> No. It's for Trump to recognize Taiwan

as as part of China.

>> Like it's

Yeah, it's it's happening, brothers.

Like it's going like Yeah. I don't know.

my second job after sending an announce

and it doesn't mean anything or does

that have ramifications?

>> Uh I think I think there'll be some

ramifications because then they're gonna

be like well crate sovereign country of

mine I'm going to start sending

everything over and then slow

>> this little light of mine. I'm going to

let it shine.

>> What?

>> I want to play the song again. That song

was so good.

>> This is This is our worst This is our

worst episode yet. I don't know.

>> Yeah.

Worst episode yet.

I am trying so hard to drop just a hint

of alpha here, brothers, but I am tired.

>> We had a good episode last time when

Dylan left. That was actually like that

was like the best.

>> As far as I understand, I got so many

DMs that were like, "This is terrible."

And I saw the watch I I saw you guys

post the watch time. It was low. Um,

guys guys guys.

>> All right. Okay. Our last mandate of he

>> try not to hurt your hand jerking

yourself off, dude. Sorry. We had We had

Open AI sole position at S tier Google.

>> Wait, wait. We're not doing this. We're

not We're not doing this.

>> We got What is this?

>> This is ranking.

>> What?

>> It's too short, bro.

>> It's a circle, dude.

>> It's like, you know, one guy will come

out with a better model, though. I I

have to say OpenAI definitely S tier for

compute right now.

>> Let's talk Let's talk about Let's talk

about just today's announcements.

>> Sora 2.

Yeah,

>> and then what's the other announcements?

>> We got Metavas 4.5.

>> [ __ ] 4.5.

>> 4.5 is real.

>> Was that yesterday though, right?

>> That was yesterday.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Whatever, dude. All It's all the same

day dude.

>> Depends on what day when your day

started and ended, bro. Someone in

Hawaii or something has had both in the

same day.

>> But guys, don't you love the ship speed?

Since since China got access to a bunch

of GPUs, we're getting like crazy AI

stuff. It we're like desensitized to AI

launches now. Just think about like last

year like versus now. Last year we had

like two model releases. Three.

>> No, I mean it's it's it's RL, bro. It's

RL, right? Like you know, you do RL, you

get better, you know, it's faster

release cycle, you know.

>> What what what kind of chips do we do RL

on those? You know, like is is there a

specific chip for that? That certain

laptop you think?

>> Cambercon.

>> Camberon.

>> Is it Camber? Cameracon or how do I say

this?

>> It'sorn

Capricorn.

Oh man. Um, I don't know. I have a

question.

Semi analysis

semi analysis.

>> It's very good.

>> Oh my god. Very good. Um, my question is

uh, when do you think RL stops? Like

when do we get a new base pre-trained

cuz cuz I confirmed today in public chat

GPT5 is just a new RL for same base

model as 01.

>> We already said this.

>> Yeah, we already said this.

>> I know. But now it's in very very Wait,

what did he say in a newsletter article?

What did he say? He say it was at a

conference. Conference. Conference

information

>> was

>> the disinformation.

>> Oh, okay. Did you also go, Doug?

>> No, dude. I [ __ ] worked all day.

Otherwise, if I went, we would have sent

out the article.

>> Nick went Nick went

>> or the thing. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's

okay. Nick and AJ went. I was like, go

find.

>> Dude, we we we had a real problem with

too many uh too many divas in the

kitchen recently. um you know whether it

be me, Doug, and uh and Jeremy uh on

this article we released today and and

>> I don't even want to cook in this

kitchen.

>> And then and then and then other times

it's been me, Weey, and Jeremy, right?

We've got too many divas like you know,

you know, my favorite thing is way when

he was Jordan, he's like, "Dylan, you

don't have enough you don't have enough

divas here." Or he said, "Bullet, you

know, guns or whatever." He said, "You

don't have enough guns.

>> You have more you have more barrels.

>> Barrels barrels barrels.

>> Too much ammo.

>> Too much ammo. Not enough barrels." But

now you know and what happens when the

guns shoot each other?

>> No, no, no.

>> Wait, so sorry. Sorry. Going back to

what you said, Doug. You said uh 4.5.

>> When do you think when do you think we

see a new uh pre-trained base model?

>> N

>> I don't know. Probably probably like

twice a year would make sense.

Maybe maybe like once every nine months

or twice a year, like kind of thing. Um,

>> so once every nine months it gets burst.

>> Six to nine months you get a new

pre-train I think. But then like

>> I think RL you could do like constantly

like I bet I bet Enthropic is going to

release like a 4.67 89 whatever it is

right soon enough like in like 3 months.

>> Oh Doug, we got to get your Oracle take.

>> Which one?

>> Oh. Oh, I'm tired. You got to prompt me

first.

>> All right, Doug. Ora O or Oracle dropped

earnings. Most unprecedented thing I've

ever seen in the history of the stock

market. Tell me about it.

>> It went up a lot.

>> No, no, no.

>> Come on.

>> Wait, wait, wait.

Awesome. Also, okay, awesome. 450

billion RPO. Really big number. Pretty

much an entire like, you know, I way

actually that was like way common in the

Slack, but no one has ever done a

four-year rev guide with like 150

billion is like or like whatever

comment. And I've said it on three

podcasts.

>> Yeah. Oh yeah. So Dylan Omega Brain take

that Weey stole and then post an

internal slack. That's usually the

direction of things, right? Like Dylan

puts it on podcast and then we steals it

and posts an internal slack.

>> No, no, no. I said I said after reading

your com. Actually, I did credit you on

their most recent one though. I credit

you on invest like the best.

>> You said my Asian analyst.

>> I said no. I said I said I said we I

credited I credited none for the GPT

super act take

>> cuz that was [ __ ] fire. Um and and

and and talk about that

>> first of all. Yeah. Doug, go.

>> Yeah. There you go.

>> Okay. Actually, yeah, dude. Okay. One,

totally [ __ ] right. All the OpenAI

researchers can suck it. Two.

>> I literally had so many of them DM me

like, "You're wrong. You're wrong.

You're wrong." And then it's like,

>> I'm like, "Motherfucker, look at this

paragraph."

>> Did you read the pro, you know, like all

Well, the other thing, too, is Pulse

looks like in Dude, Pulse looks like

inventory. Uh ad inventory, man.

>> Pulse.

>> Have you Have you been using Pulse? the

chat GPT feed, the little daily feed

that slopifies you.

>> No, okay,

>> it's okay.

>> It's fine. It's a slop. It I used to

have a a every single day gives you like

your little slot feed of like, oh, here

are your interest. My interests are

about

>> Yeah. You never saw this?

>> But utilities, Vistra in the permanent

basin, Pentagon forums council,

>> RTX missile contract, HBM4 production

analysis,

>> missile contract. What are you doing

there Beck?

>> I just was researching some [ __ ] last

night. Uh, and then key new LLM research

papers instant checkout. Anyways, so

that looks like a feed, dude. What do

you put against feeds? You put slop. You

[ __ ] have orders, brother. It said,

"I saw that you wanted to purchase these

shoes yesterday. You want to buy it

again, you little slop boy." And then

and then FJ will RL that crap to your

brain, and you're going to be like,

boom. That's the future. Also, um, in

one of the the screenshots that, uh,

Samma took of the side thing, it said

orders in it. So, orders are coming.

>> Oh my god, dude. At least. So, there's

like orders on the side like pretty much

it's it's all happening, dude. Instacart

CEO shows you the way. We're going to

see aic purchasing and everyone's going

to I don't know. And also, aentic

purchasing purchasing only got released

to free people, not for paid or it got

released to free first. And you're like,

>> Dylan, what's what's your uh what's in

your pulse?

>> I'm I'm watching

>> K-pop demon hunter.

>> I'm watching my nephew.

>> What a video call.

>> Literally on another call while on the

podcast while potting.

>> Yeah, I don't know. I'm tired.

>> I think we've just been desensitized

this AI stuff, man. We've had like

whatever 500 billion dollars of [ __ ]

being announced and now everyone's just

like, "Okay, what's another time?"

>> I'm getting fatigue. I'm getting

fatigue. I was I was going to say um the

OpenAI uh Nvidia contract uh that kind

of conversation. I don't think it's in I

don't even think it's in our numbers,

bro.

>> No, it's not. It's like

>> Yeah.

>> I mean, cuz it's so it's so long like it

kicks in 27.

>> Hasn't even been

>> Yeah. But it's like, dude, all this [ __ ]

you're like, "Wow, what is the number?"

I think it starts with a T. You know who

has been shockingly quiet recently

>> besides Dylan? Microsoft.

>> Think about this guy.

>> Get off the

>> All this [ __ ] going on, you know,

Oracle, Meta with their [ __ ] you

know, New Yorkized data centers, Amazon,

who's apparently back or not back

depending on which core research article

you read. uh Google who's like, you

know, moving moving fast and and trying

to become the next Nvidia. And where's

Microsoft and all this, guys? You ever

think about that?

I mean, it's up 23% to date. So, that's

where they are. I'm just kidding. Um I

think the thing Wait, wait. How much

alpha dropping we doing? Dylan, dude,

pre principal's out of the office.

Microsoft's back, brother.

>> Microsoft's back, brothers. Microsoft's

back.

They're also back.

>> No, I will not I will not substantiate

it in any way. But they're also back.

>> Not everyone can be back.

>> No, no, no, no. We're all so back. We're

also back that it will begin to be over

because then you have to come even more

back. Dude, get your [ __ ] together, man.

Keep up, dude. It's a [ __ ] It's a

yin-yang. So, um, no. Microsoft

>> is going to be more back.

That's That's

>> Microsoft back. Yes or no?

>> No.

>> I'm saying.

>> There you go.

>> Principal's back over.

>> We're working on it.

>> We're working on it.

>> Maybe. Maybe. I don't know. We We'll

see. We'll see. We'll see.

>> We'll see. It's path dependent.

Everything's path. Wait. So, so actually

actually Okay. So, Microsoft isn't back

yet, but in the heart of it's so over,

we might be so back. That's where we are

with Microsoft. We're we're we

definitely troughed the it so it

troughed the internal it's so Ober, but

the external it's so Ober will continue.

>> Yes. But then who knows in the in the

heart of it's so over.

>> We may come back.

>> Yeah, that's yin and yang. Right inside

of each of the yin and the yang you have

the

>> Dylan understands exactly what the [ __ ]

I'm talking about. Yep. Exactly, bro.

>> You magnify it. You magnify it's even

smaller.

>> It's like a fractal, right? You keep

zooming in and [ __ ] keeps coming.

>> Exactly. Has anyone made the gift? Doug,

this is your This is This is what you

need to do with Sora.

>> Dude, this is over.

>> Fractal of it.

>> Sat's face splitting into thousands of

parts.

>> Okay.

>> Okay. Um, what else do we have not

talked about?

It's so I mean, is it so over or is it

so back? Someone explain to me. I've

lost track now. What do we even What is

even over and what is back, guys? We

probably need a I don't know. We've

dropped alpha, but in the shittiest way

possible here.

>> Yeah, you just have to listen to me

talking about wanting to put

>> technology.

I

>> You buy the ones that Dylan wants to

[ __ ] and not

>> Oh my god. I I Okay. Okay. actually ETF.

Where's that investment strategy?

>> Is it is I have a question for you. Is

this more sloppy than Sora 2 or less

sloppy than Sora 2 as a podcast? I have

a qu like like we should actually have a

temperature check one day when you're

like, "Wow, somehow our quality is worse

than AI because I think we're getting

there very quickly."

>> The thing is the the entropy of this

podcast is far too high for AI to

predict yet.

Like this is pure chaos incarnate.

>> Okay, we're gonna one one one one day

we're going to put a fully AI generated

transistor radio on the feed and you

guys can tell us if it you you can call

us out whether it's not whether it's

real or not. That that'll be our full

test. We'll have the transistor radio

touring test.

Um

>> I don't know. Can I represist

VC fund? How where are we on that?

Oh, dude. If you are a full-time VC

professional or partner, you should

actually reach out to Doug

semiinalysis.com. We are interviewing

for the beginning of a of a of a new

fund.

>> It's not just venture capital though,

right? That's for freaking losers,

>> right? It is the new age and there's a

there's a really good thesis. I'm not

ready to drop it here.

>> Um, not the end of a trans radio.

>> Yeah. If you made it this far, slop

sons, then and then like just come just

[ __ ] email me anyways, dude. Doug

analysis.com. Um, [ __ ] it. I'll take fan

mail. I'll take fan mail this week,

guys, if you make it this far. Um,

>> but seriously, we are actually

>> we actually House of Sound. We'll do a

Q&A uh we'll uh next episode if we all

show up. Um but seriously we are

actually hiring for someone with a

venture capital background with hardcore

interest in AI specifically and you know

not like the big models but where AI

could touch you on your body or in your

life or in your soul you know um don't

get so many places.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I don't want to give

away too much.

>> Um but seriously we are actually hiring

for that and we would love for someone

who's excited to work with us to talk to

talk to us. So, anyways, that's an

aside. Um, I don't know anything else

here.

Thanks, slob sons and slap daughters for

listening.

>> Appreciate you.

>> All right, I guess we're calling

>> the sloppiest episode yet.

>> So bad.

>> This is not This is not China Talk feed.

This does not cross the China Talk feed

bar.

>> You You got to go straight to the

transistor radio feed for this. This is

the So my new my new benchmark

>> in there.

>> My my my new my new benchmark for

quality is that I don't want it to be on

China talk. That's right. I want it not

to be on China Talk. Yeah. [ __ ] yo China

Talk, dude. [ __ ] yo China Talk.

Transistor radio.

>> You know what we do now? Every every

between every alpha drop, we just say

insane [ __ ] so that Jordan can't

actually put it up. Yes. Yes. Cuz cuz

otherwise it's like I'm uh Dylan tries

Oh, or we should just keep it this way.

Dylan tries to to [ __ ] a semicap

equipment material this this and we just

we just like really sloppy the titles

and then and then viewership moons, bro.

I'm just saying

the boys try to [ __ ] at EV to

[ __ ] Mary kill EV tool DV or whatever. I

don't know.

>> You know that Black Mirror episode where

they have to like have sex with the pig,

right? Maybe this is like how Trump

decides whether or not Huawei gets its

tools,

>> you know, like they need to dominate.

>> It's It's pretty funny when you see um

you know, ASML's like, "No, no, guys, we

promise no one cares about being being

half the size. It's about how you use it

when they're talking about high. It's

like half field reticles and oh man,

it's so the the memes write themselves

here."

>> All right, we have the title.

>> The boys want a [ __ ] UV tool. The

>> Dylan puts his dick in a machine.

>> Dylan puts his dick in Dylan puts his

>> Not not normal. Not normal machine.

>> Not normal.

>> Fab Fab 52 becomes Fab 69.

>> Hey, is there a Fab 69 though for real?

>> No.

>> That's a blast. Oh. Oh. Oh. Actually,

actually another pump cuz while we're at

it, if you are looking for an

internship, mostly data labeling fabs on

a on a freaking map, we are hiring.

Well, we we have like 12 people like

that that Jeff said he's accepting

>> more.

>> That's like a job to wrangle the

freaking like interns.

>> More slops, dude. Tell me that. Tell me

I'm wrong.

>> Okay.

>> Okay. Sorry.

>> All right. Well, uh, thank you. Thank

you for this incredibly professional

episode on Transistor Radio where we

talk about We have an episode every two

weeks. You know, tune in. It's Tuesday

at 9 5:00 p.m. every time Pacific time.

Uh, and come back in two weeks for not

another episode. Thanks, guys.

>> And if you And if you have a desi

daughter, you can definitely

>> I really want to cue the outro. Cue the

outro. Yeah, desi daughter.

>> Oh, yeah. Cue the outro.

>> We're taking applications.

>> Closer to the mic. Closer to the mic.

>> No one's going to want to send their

daughter.

>> Closer to the mic. Closer.

>> Closer to the mic. Closer to the mic.

People already send their daughter.

>> It could be a cousin. It could be a

cousin.

[Music]

[Music]

Can you stop recording, Jordan?

>> That was [ __ ] ridiculous. Jordan, cut

it. The worst one yet.