中日關係兵凶戰危，是暫時決裂還是長久對峙？高市早苗是真準備為台灣出兵還是另有算計？

Hello everyone I am your Xia He, Uncle Xia Recently, I have written more than 10,000 words Manuscript on Sino-Japanese relations I plan to make a video But the reason why it was delayed until today started recording It's because of my entire writing process I hit and stopped a few times But when I stopped There is no way to truly calm the mind Because I know very well in my heart Sino-Japanese relations have reached this day

It is no longer just a diplomatic dispute Instead, a game is unfolding The storm of the times we don't want to see China is my homeland I believe I love China If I don't love China I won't leave China for so many years I also continue to pay attention to the suffering and joy in that land of China Japan is a country to which I entrust the rest of my life

If I don't love it, I won't recognize a foreign land as my hometown Because of my soul and body It belongs to both lands at the same time So today's political storm For me, it was a double oppression From personal emotions I really don't want Japan to intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue But I know it very well Starting from national interests and geopolitics

Japan has the calculations it has to do So I am not surprised by Ms. Sanae Takaichi will say words that are enough to change the pattern of East Asia But at the same time, I know very well China The Communist Party of China would rather fight fiercely and dangerously It will never let its words drift in the wind Looking at the trajectory of China and Japan sliding towards collision again

If you ask me what I am feeling at the moment I can only say four words: compassion for people This Sino-Japanese conflict has been going on since 1945 For the first time, Sino-Japanese relations sounded the alarm bell of war Whether you are a Chinese or a Japanese Or a bystander from another country I need to take the seriousness of this incident Let everyone sort it out thoroughly

The first point in the last few decades No matter what friction there is between China and Japan Whether it is the Diaoyu Islands, nuclear wastewater, or trade disputes This can be collectively referred to as diplomatic friction At this moment, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi put the Taiwan issue It is defined as a crisis of life and death in Japan This nature is very different

The second point is that this is the beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan For the first time, there was a sitting prime minister There is something wrong with Taiwan and something happens to Japan Thoroughly preached it in Congress And Takaichi claimed that Japan had the right to self-defense The third seriousness This is the first time since the end of the war in Japan

For the first time, the Taiwan issue was officially put on the table It is different from the speeches of any Japanese politician in the past Japanese politicians in the past Although it is also very ambiguous about the Taiwan issue But the premise is still to recognize Taiwan as China's internal affairs It is simply a call for peace by the sea And this time Sanae Takaichi put the Taiwan issue

It is completely equated with Japan's life and death Fourth, everyone has seen it these days It's a bombardment of news China has taken a systematic strategic countermeasure against Japan this time and the so-called diplomatic quarrel of the past few decades populist incitement The nature is completely different The fifth point is also the most terrifying thing in my opinion

The countries involved in this conflict are not just China and Japan It has even shaken the security landscape of the entire East Asian region At present, South Korea, North Korea, Russia, China These four surrounded Japan's neighbors They went to Japan one after another to attack Japan Especially in China in the past few days

There are as many as 16 diplomatic negotiations and official statements alone If the above 16 times many netizens think However, China's diplomatic intimidation has no substantive meaning Then China is at the practical level What practical countermeasures have been taken?

First, China will be on the 17th to 19th of this month Live fire exercises were held in the Yellow Sea No vessel is allowed to pass during this period Second, the ship formation of the China Coast Guard A full-scale maintenance cruise was carried out on the Diaoyu Islands, which were actually controlled by Japan Third, there are discussions at the United Nations on Security Council reform

Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Fu Cong publicly criticized Japan, calling it Japan is completely ineligible to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council Fourth, joint exercises between China and Russia at sea It is becoming more frequent in the waters around Japan Fifth, China announced the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood The Japanese side also announced

China's controls also include Japanese beef Okay, after listening to these long and boring news briefings I believe that many viewers are like me There is a question floating in my heart This is why China's reaction this time is so extreme Why should China make a big fuss Sanae Takaichi's remarks in the National Assembly In the end, I unintentionally stepped on China's red line

It still just fell into the political trap that China has laid out for a long time People who often follow international politics find out This time, China's operation is excessive But it is very stable and it is not a sudden outburst When Sanae Takaichi finished her speech in the Diet China did not immediately choose the usual military exercises

Let the foreign envoy in Osaka first Ferment this problem It caused a storm of public opinion Then China increased its weight layer by layer This segment upgrade is more like an internal evaluation A countermeasure package after multi-departmental cooperation and consultation It is not like a certain leader's angry slap on the table to decide the emotion So a lot of sane people

That's how I feel This sentence said by Sanae Takaichi It seems to have opened the toolbox that Beijing has been preparing for a long time Then inside this toolbox How many tools can be used in the future?

There is no way to know We only know that this toolbox has just opened Then this series of operations of the Chinese side What kind of effect do you want to achieve?

The first point is that Beijing is giving The war destined for the future is characterized Beijing has repeatedly emphasized Sanae Takaichi's words in the Diet It is not a personal gaffe It was a downright militaristic threat of war Beijing wants to consolidate this attribute to prepare for future military actions

Paving the legal basis The second purpose is to kill chickens and monkeys And kill a big one for the whole world to see Prove to the world the Taiwan Strait issue Any intervention by external forces is completely self-inflicted Beijing has been waiting Such an exemplary case emerged It can make its series of tools go on a big show

And at this time, Sanae Takaichi's words In the middle of Beijing's arms Because we all know that between the two sides of the strait There has been a very ambiguous ghost floating around It's called Shinzo Abe Shinzo Abe once said a sentence after leaving office It's called something happening in Taiwan, something happening in Japan And these eight words There are many believers in the green camp in Taiwan

Think of it as a spiritual talisman One of the biggest believers is Lai Qingde Even Lai Qingde erected a statue for Abe Shinzo Founded the Shinzo Abe Research Center And the CCP has long seen all this It's just that I can't find an opportunity and an excuse Carry out public opinion countermeasures Then this opportunity has come, and the CCP cannot miss it

This is a great opportunity for the program to be launched Beijing will definitely do everything in its power Create a very deterrent specimen Hold this specimen high Tell all countries in the world In the future, if anyone dares to intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue If you dare to claim that something is wrong with Taiwan, you have something wrong I will definitely let you really have something

The third point is Sanae Takaichi's cruel words It is precisely the great news of the Communist Party of China Why do you say that?

We all know that Chinese society is also full of crises Economic downturn Young people are unemployed This is a well-known thing I won't go into detail here And every time there is a great internal crisis Transferred to external contradictions It's all an excellent solution And at this time China has repeatedly emphasized the Taiwan Strait issue, which is the core of its national interests

Suddenly a century-old enemy jumped out of Japan Come and threaten to start a war with yourself When you are usually safe The Communist Party also took Japan out every now and then It should be a target and shoot Let's condense the patriotic feelings of the Chinese people At such a sensitive time node at this moment Sanae Takaichi wanted to interfere with the dispatch of troops because of China's reunification issue

Do you think the vast majority of Chinese people will listen to it What would it feel They waited for 80 years and finally waited for Japan to speak again The cross-strait issue has been completely put on the threshold of international jurisprudence Unite internally, liquidate foreign enemies, and unify the great cause These three things are the foundation of the Communist Party The CCP has been tossing for so long

What is the Japanese side's reaction?

I believe this video is very familiar to everyone recently Japanese representative Masaaki Kanai bowed his head slightly Chinese representative Liu Jinsong, Director of the Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China Hands in pockets Arrogant attitude It's not hard to guess He was holding the script sent from above Just this diplomatic video After causing an international uproar

The Japanese side also gave an official reply Let me give you a brief translation The core content of this reply No apology, no withdrawal, no bowing Japan's unprecedented rigidity There were many netizens from Chinese mainland before Crazy shouting on the Internet said that Japan was sanctioned by China this time There will be heavy losses in the future Sanae Takaichi will be under pressure from society

Stand up and retract her remarks and even choose to apologize But I tell all the audience friends in Chinese mainland You will never put 10,000 hearts into it First of all, you have to figure it out Sanae Takaichi is the leader of a far-right political party in Japan He was the Prime Minister of Japan at the time If Sanae Takaichi speaks in the Diet Just because of China's suppression, it chose to withdraw immediately

What is the face of Japan as a country?

If she withdraws, it is equivalent to announcing it to the world Japan is afraid of China China is furious The Japanese prime minister immediately withdrew his speech in the Diet Although Japan's national strength and international influence are not as good as before But after all, Japan is still one of the world's four largest economies Japan is still an established East Asian economic empire

It is impossible to compromise with national dignity The second point is that Sanae Takaichi apologizes once he apologizes Or retract her own statements Her political persona will collapse in an instant Anyone who knows a little about Japanese society knows it Japanese politics is a political arena full of family families It is not open to civilians The whole of Japanese politics has been in the past few hundred years

It was firmly controlled by several major families Commoner children can enter the political arena Standing at the top is very rare And Sanae Takaichi is one of them Then Sanae Takaichi has no family background What kind of person is it based on to chase it in Japanese politics?

It relies on the far-right conservative iron-blooded faction Her political philosophy has two core points of support One is called a strong army, and the other is called anti-China If she withdraws or apologizes She will be used by all of Japan Her audience basically scolded until there was no day to look up Will she one day resign? Maybe that's the case

But she could never bow her head and apologize The third point is that the LDP can withdraw Takaichi Many people may not know much about Japanese politics But I can tell you with certainty Whether it is Shinzo Abe, Fumio Kishida, or now Takaichi The China threat theory has always been their political belief

And the China threat theory is not groundless, it is true Everyone has preached political beliefs and political theories for more than ten or twenty years If it is because the CCP is now attacking and martial arts She immediately withdrew Then the LDP will fry the pot This compromise is in a sense It is equivalent to political suicide in Japanese politics Then many people may be curious when they hear this

Japan could never withdraw And China's bottom line is that you have to withdraw Otherwise, I wouldn't have been able to give up So how will Japan meet it in the future?

China will definitely increase its countermeasures I think there are three ways Japan can go Or they will choose these three roads in parallel The first is cold treatment It is all the key political figures No more new provocations and extreme statements Let some of the following system grassroots bureaucrats to deal with this matter to delay the change

Let time cool down your emotions This is also a classic technique of Japanese diplomacy The second way Packaging itself as a democracy bullied by dictatorships China's strong countermeasures The Western media portrayed the unease of the manufacturing area And then tell the world Chinese online articles have been published again and again

In fact, it is an outright political threat It is to make yourself a victim To create the image of Japan's consistently gentle and rational nature It also uses this image to contrast China's consistent retaliation and bullying This is a typical Western democracy The usual method of dealing with political crises This technique is certainly a classic But now I feel a little sad inside

Because there are more and more democratic camps This is the only technique Economy The economy is not good Military Military is not good Let's talk about geopolitics To be honest, most Western countries are scattered It's not as cohesive as China The only thing that can be done is ideological cloud kidnapping The third way I call it the Asia-Pacific miracle

It's just that Sanae Takaichi is really like Thatcher It is the Iron Lady of the new era She fought She stud and she bet to the end She took this opportunity to emphasize Japan's security policy Revise Japan's peace constitution To achieve her ultimate true purpose She will take advantage of this momentum to incite hateful remarks in China

Alert all Japanese citizens China is pressing us all the time We must promote military normalization Then in politics Give the LDP the opportunity to promote national security reforms Play a trick to kill crazy and stop cycling The more China counters, the stronger our army becomes Just put Japan, an island country All people are tied to this chariot of history

A bet on Japan's national fortune A bet on the U.S.-Japan security treaty Whether it can really flash its power The miracle of this third path is not impossible Although it is slim But this miracle was created It will definitely be accompanied by a third world war There is no suspense about this Of course, many mature observers have also said so

Both China and Japan are economic powers And so close, basically won't take the initiative to provoke A major war on the homeland Then if we don't go to the point of war and danger How will the future relationship between China and Japan continue?

We must both hate each other and not sever diplomatic relations with each other Then take a look China's series of countermeasures What kind of practical damage does it have to do to Japan?

From the current point of view, China has exported from diplomacy, tourism, study abroad, and exports military, cultural and other fields carried out all-round encirclement and suppression of Japan So does Japan hurt?

First, the embargo on aquatic products It cannot be said that it does not hurt but only local pain Known because of the Fukushima problem China has actually embargoed Japanese aquatic products for a long time This time, it was just opened and banned again Then let's take a look at 2022 before the total embargo Japan's exports of aquatic products to China What is the proportion?

The annual export of aquatic products to China is about 87.1 billion yen It accounts for 22% of all seafood exports in Japan These more than 80 billion yen In fact, it does not account for a large proportion of Japan's total economic output But why do I say it's localized pain?

Because this is for fishermen in areas such as Hokkaido, Aomori, and Miyagi It was a fatal blow Although its economic aggregate is not very large Japan's economic foundation cannot be shaken But the CCP has identified the exact victim This is not much pressure on the Japanese government The second layer of suppression

That is, as we all know, Chinese tourists are not coming After the CCP issued a countermeasure message against Japan In just three days, 500,000 Chinese people chose to refund their tickets Hotels in many major cities in Japan I received a thousand chargebacks in one day And this data is still expanding and spreading Although the Chinese official said

Do not travel to Japan unless necessary But you also know If the Communist Party dares to say this The grassroots departments below Your school, your unit, your parents, your street How will it infiltrate your thoughts?

It's not that you don't have to go, but you can't go Most people are social animals I'm afraid they will obediently choose to refund the ticket So this year is not over yet We can only look at last year's data In 2024, tourists from Chinese mainland came to Japan for tourism It accounts for 24% of all foreign tourism in Japan

That is, a quarter Note that this is only the Chinese mainland Hong Kong and Macau, China are not included Hong Kong and Macau, China Proportion of Japan's tourist population It's also quite amazing And Hong Kong It seems that Hong Kong people have been inciting Hong Kong people not to travel to Japan recently Then only tourists from Chinese mainland come to Japan every year

How much does it cost about 1.6 trillion yen?

I saw it on the Internet as well Many bluebird friends from Taiwan expressed disdain and indignation at this Mainlanders don't go, we Taiwanese go We Taiwanese support Japan How many people do you have in Taiwan?

You are all the people of the green camp in Taiwan Everyone goes twice a year May I ask if that is compared to a three-day 500,000 air ticket to the mainland?

Is it enough to make a drop in the bucket?

There are also many Chinese living in Japan who have made such arguments Very naïve, everywhere to highlight one's superiority The quality of mainland tourists is so low, it is best not to come If they don't come, we will enjoy the beauty of Japan alone What are you pretending to be high?

Not to mention in the eyes of the Japanese It doesn't matter what visa you get You are all Chinese and can never be changed In other words Do you know the local Chinese in Japan?

What percentage of the two countries are doing business?

If all mainlanders in China don't come to Japan to travel May I ask those of you who run immigration companies?

Is anyone else looking for you for a visa?

You people who do purchasing agents Is anyone else looking for you to buy something?"

You people who drive black cars and black travel agencies Is there anyone else looking for you to accompany you?"

Do you who run Chinese restaurants still go to eat?

You know very well in your hearts A business run by local Chinese in Japan It is completely open to Chinese What you want to earn is the money of your compatriots The Japanese will not look for you to spend at all If Chinese mainland blocks tourism trade between the two countries The first to suffer were the Chinese in Japan Do you know?

What can the mainlanders lose It's a big deal not to come to Japan to play That's all you can spend a little less And what about the Chinese in Japan, just think about it During the three-year epidemic, mainlanders were not allowed to come to Japan What kind of life do you live and how many B&Bs have gone bankrupt How many people can't hold on in Japan at all

I couldn't earn a penny and returned to China in disgrace Have you forgotten that day, the days when you couldn't open the pot?

Are the cherry blossoms still pink and the maple leaves still bright red?

Not to mention everyone who has lived in Japan for a long time I know very well what Japan's economic situation has been in over the years If the tourism industry is directly cut in half What about department stores in Tokyo What about hotels in Osaka?

Kyoto is beautiful in all four seasons, but there are no pillar industries A city that lives entirely on tourism It has gone bankrupt several times Don't you count in your heart, looking forward to ordering yourself Do you think that if China and Japan reach the day of war and danger, they will be in danger Will we Chinese in Japan end well?

You think the Japanese government Japan's far-right elements will also come out to say it Oh, you're patriotic, is he a good day?

No one has time to care about your inner thoughts In the eyes of others, you are all Chinese who should be expelled The third blow is cultural prohibition Everyone has seen it recently All Japanese movies that are about to be released in China All Japanese dramas and comics to be launched have been stopped Including some offline meet-and-greet events that had been sold for a long time have also been canceled

And China has also canceled the convention All Sino-Japanese friendship conferences including this one in Hiroshima These are not exactly official Many of them are a kind of non-governmental organization For example, which cities in China and which cities in Japan What sister cities are they sister cities to each other Even basic non-governmental exchanges have been stopped Maybe a few movies and a few anime

The economic losses that can be brought are not very large But what is the scary thing?

When there is no culture as a bridge When communicating with the people of the two countries Only each other is left in each other's information cocoon It was constantly escalated by hatred We all know what about China and Japan It has very complex historical origins When China needs to fight fiercely It will keep playing all kinds of anti-Japanese movies Conduct extreme hate education and propaganda

Let everyone not forget history But when its relations with Japan began to improve It began to frantically introduce various Japanese entertainment works Tell everyone that history is just the past We want to look forward to the future and work together to bring water together So the Chinese attitude towards Japan It has always been two-sided And the paddle in the middle of the double side It is always in the hands of the CCP

So when the CCP now lets you see It was the time of Japan's threat theory It will make China's anti-Japanese public opinion very noisy When evaporating to a certain height That is when China is really going on an expedition And this day doesn't matter what time it is I believe that peace-loving people in both countries are unhappy to see it

In the past two days, I have a Chinese friend who also lives in Japan He asked me very anxiously, and he said Uncle Xia How long do you think such a confrontation between China and Japan will last?

When will this matter be completely over?

I told him very pessimistic It will take many, many years After China has completely resolved the Taiwan issue Only then can we sit back at the international negotiating table to solve the problems of neighboring countries And how long that day was, I don't know Three years, five years, or decades In short, before the Taiwan issue is resolved

Sino-Japanese relations cannot undergo any fundamental changes For Beijing, it has been repeatedly emphasized Taiwan is the core of China, and this issue cannot be discussed It's not an economic issue, it's not a diplomatic issue It is a matter of sovereignty of life and death I know many people hear this Let's start talking about those PUAs like foot wraps

That's how stop stop my ears are about to callose It doesn't matter whether the CCP is evil or not And whether its evil is legally rational But it is going to do it now And it firmly believes that it has the strength to do this Who can stop it?

If no powerful force can successfully stop it Then it is running wildly towards this road We must accept that its steps are getting closer This is an objective fact So based on this fact It is now on par with Japan Because Japan was the first to stand up Countries that put the Taiwan issue on the table And for Tokyo

Can it change its mouth in a short period of time?

I just said it This matter is about the face of Japan as a country If at this time Sanae Takaichi began to withdraw her remarks How will she implement security plans in Japan in the future?

So in this game of Sino-Japanese confrontation It is no longer the words of any country It's just a little heavier But the people of the two countries Inevitably, he was tied to this chariot There is no room for easing in the short term As a result, long-term confrontation has become almost an inevitable trend And it can unlock the political problems of the two countries

It comes from a small island called Taiwan And when will the Taiwan issue be resolved?

Is it independence or unification?

No one knows the answer to the time We only know Every day before the outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait As long as any country dares to mention Taiwan It stepped on the CCP's nerves If you want to break through this encirclement What kind of power can Japan use?

It has only one ally, and that is the United States And it's a pity This ally is again a very uncertain ally Because after the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese crisis American journalists went to interview Trump Trump actually gave such an ambiguous and intriguing answer Trump's answer Many people are very stunned and can't help but question in their hearts

Is Japan-US relations really as strong as they seem?

Even if it is, is the United States willing to go to war?

Obviously, the attitude of the US official this time is very cautious This means that the United States may take the initiative to attack Japan this time It is also embarrassing Although Japan is the United States in the Asia-Pacific world One of the most important right-hand men But in the political abacus of the United States The old Japanese saber hangs there The greater role is to complete its clamping function

I didn't want to let it come out of its sheath After saying this In fact, my heart is very heavy, and I even have some sadness You must know that Japan at the end of the last century What a brilliant thing Japan is a civilized country that once stood on top of the world It serves as a small island nation The economy was once comparable to that of the entire United States

The speed at which it has risen industrially is a miracle of mankind Panasonic, Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi and a series of well-known brands In that era foreshadowed the future where Made in Japan was equal to the world It is no exaggeration to say that Japan used to be It is recognized by mankind as the most successful form of capitalism

However, after 1990, with the bursting of Japan's bubble economy The country seemed to be cursed It seems to be trapped in a certain year And then it went around in that year and never came out again Although Japan's family background is really rich It can make Japan eat the old book like this for 35 years It still ranks fourth in world GDP

But everyone lives in Japan Everyone who has the opportunity to see Japan up close It is very clear Japan is aging gracefully This eagle that once spread its wings and soared over the Pacific Ocean Gradually turned into a sleeping old cat At this time, Miss Sanae Takaichi appeared Where is she going to take Japan?

Can she make Japan?

Become a chess player on the world stage again It will still make Japan a pawn between the Sino-US game Finally, I reiterate my position I want world peace Although my vision is unrealistic But I still hope for it China and Japan can use each other's political wisdom Get back on track of peace as soon as possible