伊朗沒牌了，抄底信號要出現了

Hello everyone The US-Iran war has been going on for a full two weeks now The next week or two will be crucial Because the current market nerves are already stretched to the limit Any bomb from the US or Iran or an explosion of a mine could potentially drop the market by 15% Today I will analyze for you what the current situation is and what Trump's next move will be When will the Hormuz Strait be navigable?

And how can we as investors prepare?

Attention: The content of this video is my personal investment notes and thoughts.

It does not constitute any investment advice.

The stock and ETF codes mentioned in the video require further in-depth research.

Currently, all global assets are being repriced by the surge in crude oil prices.

So we must analyze this.

Next, the United States and Iran What cards do they have left?

The war reached a fever pitch yesterday Both the United States and Iran are exerting maximum pressure on each other Trump tweeted He has recently ordered One of the largest bombing operations in Middle Eastern history has been carried out Targeting Iran's most important strategic asset, the Qeshm Island and leveling all military facilities on it But the oil facilities were left behind.

Trump also warned Iran that if they dare to continue obstructing the free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, he would immediately bomb the island.

Hormuz Island is known as Iran's energy crown, with only one core message: it is the lifeline of Iran's oil exports.

80% to 90% of Iran's crude oil exports all need to be loaded onto tankers here.

If Harq Island is bombed, or if Iran's oil exports are occupied, Iran's finances will collapse instantly.

In the future, Trump may send the Marine Corps to occupy the island first, to control the oil exports, instead of bombing it first.

Now Iran's economy has already collapsed, and the remaining money in the treasury is all used to pay the Revolutionary Guards.

But in the early hours of March 11th, the United States bombed the Sepah Bank's headquarters data center in Tehran.

This bank, which is specifically used by the Iranian government and the Revolutionary Guards to pay salaries, was targeted in the bombing.

With this bank destroyed, these Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers may have to rely on faith alone to fill their stomachs in order to resist the United States.

And what's even more ruthless is Yesterday, March 13th, the United States announced a plan called Justice Rewards, saying that if you provide clues about the top leader, Mugitaba, and other high-ranking officials, you will be rewarded immediately with up to $10 million and a U.S. green card.

So in the face of hunger and huge rewards, there is also the U.S. green card.

I wonder if there is a key figure inside the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who might defect in these days.

Trump still holds many cards in his hand.

Among them are two aces.

One of them is this island of Hormuz.

If they occupy this island, Iran's economy will collapse completely.

So today Iran says, this island is their red line.

You can't move.

Actually, Trump has another big card.

That is to bomb Iran's power infrastructure.

Trump said, he could cripple all of Iran's electricity within an hour.

But he doesn't want to do it now.

Because once bombed, the entire country of Iran would need to be rebuilt, and it would take 25 years.

This is actually not an empty threat.

Because in the power grids of various countries around the world, there is a huge vulnerability, which is the large power transformer.

This transformer is very large, usually weighing three to four hundred tons, and towering two stories high.

They are all custom-made, and they are indispensable equipment for transmitting power from national power plants.

Now in the construction of AI data centers in the United States, This demand is exploding for large transformers globally has been pushed out to 2030 I mentioned earlier, the GE Vernova which is a subsidiary of General Electric specializing in this If the U.S. were to bomb Iran's large transformers all of them along with sanctions then Iran's power It may really need to be after 2030 to recover on a large scale

So now Trump holds these two aces Either paralyze Iran's economy or paralyze their electricity But Iran also has cards now They are all small cards And they are headaches for the United States Iran is a very large country In their underground tunnels Hidden are many low-cost drones and missile launchers They constantly use these things to bomb airports around the world hotels, oil fields, and so on Iran is now also leaderless

the current Ayatollah son of Khamenei Mujtaba now serves as the supreme leader Also got bombed by Israel It's said that two legs need to be amputated Liver and kidney ruptured Said by Israel's Mossad He's basically like a dead person now Iran's only card now is to use drones Missiles and mines block the Hormuz Strait They want to push the oil price to $200 Dragging out the time Dragging until the U.S. inflation rises

Inflation Dragging the whole world into stagflation Then came the midterm elections in the United States Trump's approval rating plummeted This was a pincer attack Trump became very passive at this point Iran was thinking When that time comes It's not me who will seek peace It's the whole world coming to force you to stop So the essence of current investment is when you buy into the petrochemical industry, fertilizer, food and other sectors that have skyrocketed,

what you are betting on is Iran, without air superiority, using this small drone with a rifle attached, you can block the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, dragging the United States into a protracted war.

But if you invest in AI technology stocks and the AI industry chain now, You're gambling.

The United States will use the latest generation of AI warfare weapons to open the Strait of Hormuz in April or May and resume the navigation of oil tankers.

So our current issue is when will this strait be opened?

When will the oil price drop?

Based on historical experience, the day when the oil price drops is when the United States, United Kingdom, France, and other countries On the day when escorting in the Hormuz Strait On March 12, the US Treasury Secretary Besent said in an interview that the US Navy will escort oil tankers through the Hormuz Strait but the prerequisite is that Iran's maritime threats must be minimized Now the oil price suddenly rose to $100 or $120 and so on

the additional part here is the war premium If this sea route is opened this premium will quickly disappear and US tech stocks and chip stocks will rebound quickly and there is another feature in this financial market that if during a war there is nothing bigger or more sensational news to emerge the world will slowly adapt to this high oil price and this war premium will also quickly disappear Someone asked me When will the oil price peak?

Will it only drop after the war ends?

The answer is no.

Such things have happened in history.

It was during the 1987 Iran-Iraq War.

Something happened later on.

It was called the Tanker War.

Also known as the Oil Tanker War.

The oil price once peaked on American warships.

While escorting in the Hormuz Strait At the moment of being bombed September 1980 Iran and Iraq erupted into an 8-year war In the previous years, it was a land war But by 1984 But by 1984 Iraq started using Exocet missiles To attack Iran's Halgheh Island The island that the US military just bombed yesterday The war between Iran and Iraq escalated from land to sea

with both sides resorting to various methods to attack each other's oil tankers This became known as the Tanker War By 1987 Kuwait couldn't hold on any longer and sought help from both the United States and the Soviet Union At this point, the United States agreed to hoist Kuwait's oil tankers under the American flag and provide naval escort by the U.S. Navy

This operation is called Operation Earnest Will.

It was the largest surface escort operation since World War II.

The result came on July 24, 1987.

During the first escort mission, there was a super tanker of 410,000 tons, called the Bridgeton.

At this time, the U.S. warship turned around

the U.S. warship turned around and hid behind the tanker, letting the tanker lead the way and clear mines.

The Bridgeton was torn open in an instant.

A hole of over 40 square meters.

At this moment, All the newspapers around the world were mocking the U.S. military,

calling them cowardly.

Meanwhile, The world's oil prices in July reached a peak of $21.

Then, the oil prices began to plummet, dropping $13 by September 1988.

So the oil prices peaked at that time coinciding with the worst news for the US military What happened after the incident in 1987?

The US took swift action by deploying minesweepers and helicopters They captured an Iranian mine-laying ship in September and bombed two Iranian oil platforms in October as retaliation By April 1988 the US launched Operation Praying Mantis Sank two Iranian frigates within a day and speedboats as well as two other oil platforms July 18 Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei accepted the ceasefire Looking back at this history

Despite the global turmoil from the 70s to the 80s with high oil prices and US interest rates peaked at 20% But from 1982 to 1987 the Dow Jones Industrial Average tripled By '87 due to the overheated stock market coupled with program trading a Black Swan event occurred on October 19 known as Black Monday with a 22% drop in the S&P but it eventually rebounded so the 1987 Oil War

Just tell us two very important conclusions First, the peak of oil prices occurs when there is the most bad news from the US military Second, once the conflict between the US and Iran reaches a peak, everything that should be bombed will be bombed, there are no new targets left, then the market will digest this risk premium within one or two months, or even 3 months, and oil prices will fall This stock will rise

Then we go back to 2026 How to judge the rapid disappearance of the war premium This signal This turning point The first is the U.S. military escort

From this statement to become the norm Trump and Europe announced the establishment of a continuous Regular escort mechanism The risk of passage through the strait From being uncontrollable degradation It became controllable in an instant Although the cost of this escort is high But in this world There's nothing that money can't solve 1987 was a turning point like this The second one is The price of crude oil Started to become numb to the whole bad news

It was the day when Iran attacked another oil tanker Or maybe it's another country bombing an oil field But the oil price has just gone up a little bit Or it hasn't gone up at all It indicates that the market has become numb The risk premium has already been priced in This is called bearish news blunting It's also a very reliable signal of a market top Once either of these signals appears Everyone should pay attention

Reduce energy positions Increase the allocation of technology or growth stocks In the future, the investment theme dominated by AI technology will not change.

So in these few days, with major news breaking every day, it's better to watch more and act less.

Holding cash is the best option.

What we are waiting for is the signal I just mentioned.

There is another indicator.

I suggest everyone take a look recently That is Bitcoin Bitcoin has a pattern It starts 3 to 6 months ahead of the US stock market If it hasn't ended now But Bitcoin is slowly rising Rising to 80,000 or 90,000 The US stock market should follow in the next month or two It should also start This is an investor A signal of risk preference conversion Buy Bitcoin Just explain

Everyone feels that there are opportunities in this market Can take on a certain amount of risk To achieve higher returns Now, in terms of the technology of Bitcoin Its bottom keeps being lifted It feels like there is a bottom rebound This needs to be monitored closely at all times If Bitcoin continues to fall it means everyone is panicking again and there are some bad news that we didn't expect before appearing

the stock market will also fall accordingly A friend left a message asking how to arrange the bullets in hand for bottom fishing whether to divide into three times or how many times I think the funds for bottom fishing It can be divided into about 5 times The quantity is relatively small in the first few times Now I have already bought in The quantity will gradually increase later

Approximately the first 30% to 40% of the funds in three transactions Buy slowly Establish a bottom position The last two transactions together make up the majority About 60% Specifically waiting for panic selling Buy when the market plunges sharply Some people ask If it surges after you buy half, You don't have to regret making less profit Because you already have a base position You won't miss out either There are plenty of money-making opportunities in the stock market

Don't chase high because of regrets You must control your emotions This is the hardest for retail investors to control It's okay to earn less The key is not to chase high and lose money As long as you don't lose money Earn a little less each time Accumulating compound interest in this way is also amazing And it's not a bad thing to have cash on hand We need to prepare for the worst-case scenario

The U.S. stock market recently

The U.S. stock market recently This oil price increase Or something like inflation rate cuts postponed Even future rate hikes will occur There are some chain reactions And recent AI replacements Such as artificial layoffs and other storms May trigger a black swan event The stock market will plummet all of a sudden And now this QQQ SPY On a technical level Has reached a very tense moment If it falls further

Dropped below the red 200-day moving average This is getting more risky There is a possibility of further 10% decline Friends who have already invested don't need to worry Let's take a look back at the S&P 500, QQQ and other indices In fact, they have all been rising for three years The cumulative increase over these three years is 70% While QQQ has seen a 90% return over three years So it's quite normal for a pullback this year

New investors in QQQ and SPY It's really something you can invest in regularly.

So let's hold onto cash now.

According to your own pace.

Watching how this Trump and Iran conflict ends.

Finally, a reminder to everyone.

The situation has been heating up these days.

Everyone is playing their big cards.

So everyone must watch more and act less.

Always pay attention to Trump's actions.

Alright, see you next time.