大通缩来了：中国人如何自救？为什么国家买黄金，而你在被“洗劫”？

Have you noticed what is the most terrifying thing in China's economy? Since

the early year of 2026, China has printed 3.4 billion yuan, which is more than the currency sum of the United States, the European Union and Japan. The

data of the first M2 in the world is scary. According to common sense, because of so much money, the price should rise, and even the RMB should become a waste. But the reality is completely the opposite. The dollar exchange rate of RMB is very strong now. Even in the US dollar-increased gold and silver wave, the US dollar exchange rate has been firmly in the upper and lower seven.

Recently, it has directly rushed to the 6.9 level. At the same time, the national team is still crazy about gold. The country is very rich, and the exchange rate is very strong. But look back at us ordinary people. The house is cramped, no one wants it. The shop is closed, no one rents it. The wages

are not increased, the wealth is not paid. There is only one cruel truth.

目前,中国正处在可怕的资产通缩时代。

除了钱和黄金,你手里那些曾经引以为傲的房子、商铺、股权都在迅速的贬值。

在这样一个资产飞速贬值的狂暴风浪中,普通中国人又该如何自救呢?

钱是如何被吃掉的?

我们首先要纠正一个常识性的误区。

In the modern financial system, what is printed out by printing machines is not the wealth that our people understand. To be more specific, what it prints out is actually debt. When the economy is good, everyone is confident that enterprises dare to borrow money to expand, and you dare to borrow money to buy a house. The currency will be created by madness in this loan behavior. This is called

house. The currency will be created by madness in this loan behavior. This is called credit expansion. But at the moment, we are facing two huge black holes in the

credit expansion. But at the moment, we are facing two huge black holes in the middle. The new currency that has been printed in the past few years has reached

middle. The new currency that has been printed in the past few years has reached hundreds of billions of yuan. It's not even time to go around the world. It's

been devoured by two black holes. The first black hole is called the interest of the stock. Think about the past 20 years. How many skyscrapers have we built

the stock. Think about the past 20 years. How many skyscrapers have we built on this land? How many bridges have we built? Behind these mechanical miracles is the local government financing platform and the capital company's accumulated astronomical debt. Now these debts have reached the peak of the return of the

debt. Now these debts have reached the peak of the return of the debt. The bank does have new money. But how did this money flow? It just

debt. The bank does have new money. But how did this money flow? It just

came out of the bank. Borrowed from Chengdu company. Chengdu company returned it to the bank. Used to repay the interest of the amount of debt. This money is

the bank. Used to repay the interest of the amount of debt. This money is empty in the financial system. Just to prevent debt mine from being blown up. It

didn't become a wage. Didn't become a stock of raw materials. It's not a consumerism of the common people. This is a pure financial maintenance.

For the actual economy, this money has never really existed. We call it "money transfer". The second black hole is even more terrible. It concerns the destiny of our

transfer". The second black hole is even more terrible. It concerns the destiny of our wealth. It's called "destruction of asset prices". This is a logic that many

wealth. It's called "destruction of asset prices". This is a logic that many people have not thought of. If the expansion of the credit is the creation of wealth, then the fall in asset prices is the destruction of the currency.

Let's give an example of the most intuitive way. In 2020, you may have spent 5 million to buy a house, pay 1.5 million to the bank, and bring 3.5 million to the bank. At this moment, the commercial bank created a new currency of 3.5 million on the account. This money went into the market, became the income of the developers, and became the profits of the

upper and lower classes. At that time, everyone thought that there was a lot of money in the society. But in 2026, the price of houses in the same community fell to 2.5 million yuan. What happened? On your family account, the wealth of 2.5 million yuan disappeared directly. On the red-light account of the

whole society, this means that the biggest undercut value is shrinking. Real estate is China's largest investment asset in the past 20 years. About 70% of the currency is anchored in land and houses. Now this huge water-loss pool is shrinking sharply. The central bank is trying to build a water tap in front of it,

sharply. The central bank is trying to build a water tap in front of it, trying to maintain the water level, but the price of real estate is falling, like pulling out the sieve under the drain. In other words, the speed of asset shrinkage is far beyond the speed of printing. This is why the macro data is so good, but you do feel that business is getting harder and harder. We are

experiencing a asset debt table decline of the level of a textbook, also called asset shrinkage. In such a period of time, in addition to a few people

shrinkage. In such a period of time, in addition to a few people who have cash and hard goods, most people who have bubble assets are experiencing a silent wealth crisis. Japan's historical situation This kind of domestic asset collapse, currency, but an extraordinary phenomenon, is not the first

time in human history. Many people's imagination of economic crisis is too shallow.

总觉得最严峻的经济危机无非就是像1991年的苏联或者是现在的津巴布韦那样 钱变得像纸一样推着一册钞票去买面包 这种对恶性通涨的恐惧深深地刻在中国人的骨髓里 也成了过去20多年大家买房抗通涨的信仰支柱

但这种基于短缺经济时代的推演在今天完全失效了 China's current situation has not collapsed like the Soviet Union. It is more like a close, long and even more selfish Japanese decline. Let's look at Japan from 1990 to 1995. On December 29, 1989, the Japanese capital reached

a historical peak of 38,915 points. All Japanese people think they can buy the whole United States. But we all know the script afterwards.

United States. But we all know the script afterwards.

股市在短短几个月内腰斩,紧接着房地产市场开始雪崩。

按照普通人的理解,一个国家的泡沫破了,资本应该疯狂外逃,货币应该大幅度贬值才对。

但历史跟所有人开了一个极其残酷的玩笑,在泡沫破裂后的整整五年里,也就是1990年到1995年, 日本经济最痛苦的时期,日元没有贬值。

恰恰相反,日元走出了人类金融史上最疯狂的生殖区限。

1990年,1美元大概能兑换145日元。

到了1995年4月,日元竟然狂飙到了1美元兑换79日元的高位。

这一幕是不是和现在的中国极其相似?

国内资产价格腰斩,汇率却硬得吓人。

The logic behind this is that the Japanese companies at that time were like Chinese companies today, having huge assets overseas. When domestic assets were hit by the Chinese government, there was a huge deficit, and in order to save the country, the companies had to sell overseas US dollars on a large scale, and transfer the funds back to China to fill the holes. This kind of massive capital return, hard-wonly bought Japanese

yen into the world's hardest currency at that time. This was a very divided survival experience for the Japanese middle class at that time. As a consumer, you feel more rich. Travel abroad becomes super cheap. Buying LV bags is like buying cabbage. Tokyo

rich. Travel abroad becomes super cheap. Buying LV bags is like buying cabbage. Tokyo

convenience stores still have 24-hour lights. Subway is still operating at a good pace. The whole society is quiet. Even more quiet than the bubble

good pace. The whole society is quiet. Even more quiet than the bubble world. But as a person with assets, you are like living in hell.

world. But as a person with assets, you are like living in hell.

您名下的房子价值跌去了60% 但您欠银行的房贷 那几千万日元一分都没有少 更要命的是 因为日元升值 出口企业受到重创 财源和降薪成了常态 您每个月拼死拼活赚来的工资 甚至不够还银行的利息

这就是经济学家顾昭明所说的 资产负债表大衰退 这种衰退并不会让人饿死 现在工业社会的生产力 其实足够保证大家吃饱饭 它真正恐怖的地方在于 它会让你僵死 一个典型的1992年日本家庭

无论怎么努力 赚来的每一分盈余 都要拿去填补那个债务无底洞 他们不再消费 不再贷款 不再投资 整个社会进入了一种 低欲望的防御状态 这种状态持续了整整30年 This is a new method of cutting meat with a soft knife. Compared to the

Soviet-style "Kyokuryo" method, that is, the old order is immediately dissolved and the new order is established quickly on the waste. The Japanese model is a long-term stagnation. It

uses the surface of social stability and high marriage to maintain the quality of the body. The price of breaking the bubble is equal to the price of every

body. The price of breaking the bubble is equal to the price of every generation and every day of life. The price of strong marriage. If you understand Japan, look back at China now, you will understand the many actions of the country now.

人民币兑美元汇率在7.0左右,顽强防守,不仅有日本当年的经济逻辑,更叠加了当下极其严峻的地缘政治考量。

很多人在后台问我,曹操,既然国内经济这么难,既然房地产摇摇欲坠,国家为什么不干脆像2008年那样,再搞个大水漫灌来救楼市?

为什么不让人民币贬值来刺激出口?因为棋盘变了。

If China has been running under economic logic for the past 30 years, China has switched to a safe logic and even a war logic in the next 30 years.

Please note the other part of the Chinese central bank's asset balance sheet, a very important parameter, gold. The Chinese central bank has been trading gold on the international market for more than ten months, even longer, on a large scale. This kind of national strategic strategy is definitely not to earn a little difference.

在国家战略的棋盘上,黄金只有一个属性,超主权的新预债体,以及极端情况下的最后支付手段。

看看俄罗斯被踢出Swift系统后的遭遇,所有人都心知肚明。

一旦台海局势激化,或者中美之间发生极端的金融脱钩,中国持有的几万亿美国国债,以及存在西方银行系统里的美元,都有可能在一夜之间变成被冻结的数字符号,在那个至暗时刻, 只有躺在自家金库里的黄金才是真正属于你的,谁也抢不走的,硬通货。

所以,中国现在的策略异常清晰而坚定,一方面通过大规模置换黄金,降低对美元体系的依赖,提升金融安全的绝对底线。

另一方面,死守人民币汇率是为了给人民币国际化铺路 是为了在金砖国家支付体系里确立老大的地位 是为了让那些一带一路的国家相信 收人民币比收美元更安全、更保值 在中国高层看来,这是一盘关乎国运的大棋

为了在这个动荡的世纪中争夺一席之地,这步棋不得不走 In the current semi-open environment, in order to ensure exchange rates and financial security, the central bank must give up the option of releasing water through the bottomless pit to save the floor. If we do a big flood in order to save that pile of

floor. If we do a big flood in order to save that pile of steel and water now, the RMB exchange rate will definitely collapse, and it may fall directly to 7.5 or even 8.0. In this way, the cost of importing people and food will rise, and funds will escape the big scale. China's financial

defense line will break. 两害相权取其轻

中国决策层选择了保汇率 保金融安全 保高端制造 这就意味着必须有人为这个宏大的战略买单 这个买单的对象就是国内的资产价格 主要是房地产 房地产泡沫必须在可控的范围内进行除清 这就是我们感受到含义的真正来源

中国政府正在修筑金融的长城,城墙越来越厚,护城河越来越宽,足以抵御外部的风浪。

但对于生活在城墙内的普通中产家庭来说,我们手里原本以为最值钱的房子,因为失去了大水漫关的支持,正在回归它原本的居住属性,也就是在价值上大幅缩水。

We are now experiencing a Chinese version of the Japanese asset deficit fall and a unique geopolitical pressure. In the long term of the future, the era of relying on asset politics, such as buying houses and buying stocks to get wealth, is completely over. The Chinese and Russian governments have already linked resources to security and

over. The Chinese and Russian governments have already linked resources to security and high-end manufacturing, and ordinary people's excessive production and bubble-based assets are destined to be cleaned up a little bit in this long period of dryness.

杀估值还债 国家为了金融安全和人民币国际化 选择了死守汇率 不可能没有代价 而这个代价就是国内资产价格的变成重估 有一个非常隐晦的专业术语叫化债 在新闻联播和各类中国官方文件里 你经常能听到一览着化债方案

或者守住不发生系统性风险的底线 This word sounds like a long-standing life. It seems to be a high-level game between the local government and

life. It seems to be a high-level game between the local government and the bank. Many people think that the debt is the state's hard money to

the bank. Many people think that the debt is the state's hard money to help the local government to pay back the debt. Everyone is happy. This

idea is not only childish but also dangerous. There is no free lunch in the world, and there is no debt that disappears in vain. Debt is essentially a resource collection that crosses the time cycle. Since the money has been spent, it becomes the highway where no one runs, it becomes the industrial park where the weeds are reborn, or it becomes the profits in some merchant's pockets. Then

this debt must be paid by someone. If the country does not plan to use the bad money to make money, that is, to make money to make big money to absorb debt, then there is only one way left. By suppressing the asset return rate and asset price of the whole society, to make room for debt rebuild.

This is a big economic operation that is not very good The first person lying on the table is a local financing platform and real estate company that is carrying huge debts And the blood of the blood is the thousands of ordinary families This operation has two core consequences One is that the house can't be sold Another is that interest rates are getting thinner and thinner

Let's talk about the house now For Chinese people in the past 20 years Buying a house is super belief This belief is built on a simple logic The house is a printer, it can grow when it is bought, it can sell when it is sold, and it is free of money when it is sold Now this logic has completely failed In the year of 2026, the role of

real estate happened a turning point today It is no longer a engine that pulls GDP, nor is it a symbol of wealth In the eyes of the country, the core task of real estate is no longer a dispute Its only mission now is to lock the liquidity You may find it strange, why don't countries just let go of all restrictions and even go straight to the bottom and buy

all the houses? Why do we see policies that are always like a fake high?

The interest rate is down a little, the interest rate is down a little, but the house price is still falling, and the turnover is still shrinking.

There is a very deep political economics consideration here. If the house price is allowed to fall freely, according to the real supply and demand relationship of the market, Currently, China is at a rate of rising population and a decline in income expectations.

Many cities may need to wait for the price to rise overnight to find buyers. If this happens, the value of the stock market will collapse instantly. The

find buyers. If this happens, the value of the stock market will collapse instantly. The

bank's asset debt will explode and the entire financial system will be paralyzed. This

is a systemic risk that the Chinese government must not tolerate. On the other hand, if the country resorts to the stock market like in 2016, and uses the Penghai currency-based "Snowfall" 房价是能拿起来的,但那样会直接击穿人民币汇率。

所以既不能暴跌,也不能暴涨。

那剩下的路是什么?

就是阴跌和冷冻。

也就是为什么你会发现,现在卖房变得如此艰难。

你挂牌500万,中介告诉你没人看。

你降到450万,还是没人看。

你新一横降到380万,终于有人看了。

但买家还要再看你50万。 During this process, the government and the bank came to a consensus. They maintained a high price on private property, that is, the bank's guide price, so that the bank's account assets looked healthy and there was no large-scale bad debt. But in fact, they used various means,

including cash flow, complex taxes and strict loan audit, to basically cut off the route of real estate rapid transformation. This formed a strange situation, with no price and no market. For those who own a house, this is a very cruel psychological torture. You

market. For those who own a house, this is a very cruel psychological torture. You

look at the software of your cell phone, although the price of the old-fashioned army in your neighborhood has fallen, it seems to have fallen not much. You think

you still have tens of millions of rich and poor, but it's just a piece of paper. Once you continue to use money, you will find that the inner door has been sweat-stained when you want to exchange this pair of steel and water for cash. This is what I call "vibration black hole".

In the period of inflation, assets are meaningless Only assets that can be transformed are assets That is debt Do you understand this? For example, an entrepreneur in Shanghai district in order to pay the company's salary He wants to sell a set of rowing villa in his hand Three years ago, the market

value was 18 million The second brought 10 million to the bank Now he is in a hurry to hang 12 million No one asks for money Finally someone paid 9.5 million He found that selling the house was not only not enough to get a penny, but also had to pay 500,000 yuan to the bank to pay off the debt. This house is no longer wealth

for him, but a laborer who has to eat tens of thousands of dollars of interest every month. This is the face of the debt. The country doesn't need you to sell a house, because once you sell a house, you either break the bank's plate, or you change it into cash to raise a few dollars or gold. The country hopes that you can hold the red notebook with a good heart,

gold. The country hopes that you can hold the red notebook with a good heart, even if it has actually shrunk by half. As long as you don't trade, this bubble will not break on the account You have to continue to work, continue to pay the mortgage Use your cash flow in the next 30 years to fill the holes left by the bubble in the past 30 years If the

lock of the house is not moving Then the bank interest is at a disadvantage It's just a piece of meat for you Did you find a phenomenon? The deposit

interest rate dropped rapidly, it's just a slide But the loan interest rate, especially the loan interest rate of the deposit room 降的却像蜗牛爬,这就是金融压抑的典型特征。

在正常的市场经济里,如果经济不好,大家都不想借钱。

银行为了把钱贷出去,应该大幅降低贷款利息,同时为了吸引存款,存款利息应该维持一定水平。

但我们现在看到的情况恰恰相反,银行在拼命压低存款利息,大额存单从3%降到2%,再降到1.5%。

Even some banks' long-term deposit interest rates have been forced to go up one time. The reason the media is doing this is to stimulate consumption. So

one time. The reason the media is doing this is to stimulate consumption. So

because saving money is not cost-effective, people will take money out to buy things.

That's right. This is indeed a reason. The country requires banks to lower interest rates in order to drive you out of the bank, forcing you to consume and invest. This is a battle between the country and the rich. But from the

invest. This is a battle between the country and the rich. But from the perspective of the bank itself, its purpose is a little different. It is more about one thing, to repair the gap between banks. This is also a loophole of debt. The local government owes the bank too much money. Many debt debts are already

debt. The local government owes the bank too much money. Many debt debts are already rotten in nature, can't pay the capital, or even interest. If the bank wants to ask for debt, the local government will have to bankrupt. If the bank doesn't ask for debt, the bank will have to bankrupt itself. So the central government came up with a plan to reduce the debt. Let the banks take the

high-level debt of the local government, which used to be 8% or 10%, and now it is replaced by a long-term loan of 1% or about 3%. Then give the local government a chance to breathe. Who will bear the

3%. Then give the local government a chance to breathe. Who will bear the interest losses in the middle? Banks? Banks are commercial institutions. They want to make a profit. They want to share the share with shareholders. Finally, this cost is transferred to the household.

营养通过大幅度降低存款利率,也就是你的利息收入少了,来对冲它在资产端,也就是借给地方政府和企业的钱,收益下降的风险。

简单的说,就是用储户少拿的利息去填补了地方债务的窟窿。

除了储户,还有一个群体在为这场化债买单,那就是老房奴。

Although the loan market price interest rate is declining, but for the stock market users, adjustment is always a big responsibility. More importantly, many people have up to 4.5% or even 5% interest interest. And now the deposit interest rate is only 1.5%.

This is a very amazing interest rate reduction. You have a bank deposit of 1 million, 1 million interest rate of 1.5 million. You owe the bank 1 million interest rate, 1 million interest rate to pay 4.5 million. The 30,000 yuan difference in the middle is the bank's blood from you to maintain its operation and to cover up those bad debts. So you will see that a wave of crazy

early repayment of loans appeared in the past two years. The people are not fools, everyone can count on it. But what is the reaction of the bank? It is a setting barrier. At least queue for three months, even have to

bank? It is a setting barrier. At least queue for three months, even have to pay the interest. Why are banks afraid of paying back? Because for current banks, like you, they are so eager to pay back, and they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they

are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay

back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so

eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that

they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to

pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to pay back, that they are so eager to Now China's M2 index is slowing down and money is turning empty. This means that China's current currency volume has not been as bad as it used to be. The

total cake of social wealth has not changed rapidly. So if someone cuts off more, someone will eat less. The nature of the internal circle is never that everyone works hard. Its nature is that a group of people are making a comfortable

hard. Its nature is that a group of people are making a comfortable fight on the table with only one cake. In this cruel stock market, we can clearly see the fate of two types of people. A kind

of people who are rapidly falling back. This group of people's typical identity is to follow the traditional land lease economy. Their wealth accumulation in the past 20 years mainly depends on buying houses, doing government projects, relying on traditional Internet platforms to make a fortune, or doing financial money-making in financial institutions. Their wealth is

essentially a bubble of interest. When the country decided to focus on eating bubbles and doing debt relief, this group of people were among the first. Look

who's the worst now. It's the grasshopper customers with dozens of houses. Their assets are locked up, cash flows are broken, and small bosses who make greenery and municipal projects are in charge. They have a bunch of government bonds in their hands. If they don't get the money back, they can't even pay their workers' wages.

hands. If they don't get the money back, they can't even pay their workers' wages.

It's those million-dollar financial workers.

随着降薪令和裁员潮 一夜之间从中产跌落 这些人的反贫真不能怪他们不努力 根本原因在于他们过去依附的那艘旧船 也就是土地财政和信贷扩张正在沉没 相较于反贫的人群 另一类是正在历史暴富

或者至少能独善其身的人 这群人的特征是掌握硬核的生产力或者出海能力 In the support of the renminbi, the real beneficiaries are those who can sell things to the world. Do new energy vehicles or cross-border e-commerce Or master the factory group with high-end precision manufacturing technology Even in overseas, the foundation of the foundation Why? Because their income comes

from the foreign market, earning US dollars or euros. And their cost, that is, the domestic artificial raw materials and supply chain, is constantly declining in the market.

This kind of currency exchange, or using low-cost domestic advantages to drive global competitors, is the source of violence that few Chinese people have at the moment.

This is also a manifestation of the state's will. The Chinese government hopes that wealth will be transferred from the hands of the rich to the hands of the productive. The state does not want young people to go to the grocery

the productive. The state does not want young people to go to the grocery store to do finance or to buy houses. The state wants young people to go to factories to do research or to go to the overseas market. This is

a very painful transformation for most ordinary people. Because most of us don't have the ability to develop in high-end countries, nor the courage and capital to give birth to children, most of us are still stuck in the old economic map, guarding that unrepairable house with a salary that may disappear at any time. So

this is a cruel truth of the current Chinese economy. Your wealth is being killed by the stock market.

国家通过锁定流动性和压低利率,把民众积累了30年的财富,通过一种极其隐蔽的方式,转移给了负债累累的地方政府和亟待升级的制造业。

这是一次规模空前的财富大逻辑。

在这场逻辑中,如果你还抱着坐地收租或者闭眼买房的旧木不放,那么你注定会成为那个被时代列车无情甩下的牺牲品。

So, since the house is a pit, what should ordinary people do? Can we just sit and wait? Of course not. In any chaotic and chaotic situation, there is always a line of promotion. The biggest risk for ordinary people. I talked about the chess game of Chinese red crown and the shrinkage of assets. Many

people may have a sense of error when they see this. Since the house can't be bought, the risk of stock is too high, then I just have the cash in my hand, is it a big deal? This is another huge misunderstanding.

In the era of the "common talk", although we often say that cash is the king, there is a cruel premise to this sentence. You must have the ability to continue to get cash. The real crisis we are facing now is not the kind of worry about the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the

price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the

price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the

price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the

price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the

price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price of Because you don't know if

you have money to invest in your next month's salary card. This is the biggest wave of cash flow that ordinary people face in the era of big talk. To

put it bluntly, it's a debt that's just a credit, but the income is a debt. I want to ask you to review your family account again. In the

debt. I want to ask you to review your family account again. In the

past decade, many Chinese middle-class families have a very fragile financial model.

I'll give you an example. My husband and I are working hard in the city. Our annual income is 500,000 yuan. It feels very good. It's more than the

city. Our annual income is 500,000 yuan. It feels very good. It's more than the income of many people around us. So I carried 4 million yuan in my mortgage, bought a car worth 300,000 yuan, and gave birth to two baby bears. The fixed

expenditure of each month is the mortgage, car loan and education. It's 30,000 yuan.

When the economy is good, it's no problem. There are bonuses at the end of the year, and the stock has a profit. Occasionally,

it can jump a tide and rise by 30%.

大家都觉得未来会更好,今天的负债是为了明天的幸福,但现在,这个链条上的核心环节,收入运气崩塌了,企业赚不到钱了,在通收环境下需求萎缩,企业的利润表被上下游假的喘不过气,老板想活下去,最直接和最快见效的手段,只有一招,砍人力成本。

So, the workplace is now a hobby. 35 years old, become a life and death line. High-ranking general, middle-class, and rich. Once the unemployment comes to the high-ranking middle-class family, that is the death of the debt. You

should know that the exchange rate of RMB is so strong, even if it goes up to 6.0, it has no meaning for a person who has no cash flow. The bank will not cut off your mortgage because of the increase in exchange rate. On the contrary, under the same circumstances, the actual interest rate, which is the interest rate minus the inflation rate, is actually higher. Your

debt burden is actually increasing. I have seen too many cases like this. The

original decent factory employees were taken away by the bank for six months because of their unemployment. What's worse is that the price of the legal party cannot

their unemployment. What's worse is that the price of the legal party cannot cover the loan. The house is gone, the handover is gone, and the bank still owes more than 1 million yuan. This is the ultimate form of money gone.

这些通说时代,我们要防守的不是资产贬值,这个是大趋势,你防不了。

我们要防守的是生存权的上市。

只要现金流一段,你所有的体面尊严和健身属性会在几个月内归零。

所以我给所有人的第一个警告是,如果你现在工作还不稳定,或者所在的行业正在下行, 千万不要为了所谓的炒底去消耗你宝贵的现金储备。

The savings you have to save for your family at least two years in the absence of income. In addition to the breakage of cash, there is a more hidden risk that is growing. That is the financial crisis of the banking system.

In the past, we thought that money in the bank was absolutely safe. Banks are

the country's. How can it be a problem? But from the Hengnan Village Bank incident to the blockade of Changzhou Bank, the reality has proven that the bank's absolute safety is purely illusion. We must see a fact clearly.

中国有4000多家银行,他们的命运是不一样的。

四大行,也就是工农中介,确实是大而不能倒的。

他们背后直接占着国家信用。

但是那几千家地方性商业银行,村镇银行和地方农信社,他们的底色是什么?

他们的底色是地方债和房地产。

很多地方小银行,本质上就是地方政府的钱袋子。 In the past 20 years, they have brought a lot of money to the local dust companies to repair and build buildings, and to the local developers to take over the land. Now the dust can't be paid back, and the developers are in trouble.

land. Now the dust can't be paid back, and the developers are in trouble.

In the asset debt table of these banks, bad debts are already increasing. This problem

can be covered by borrowing and saving. But in the period of slander and evasion, the lid can't be covered. Even if the deposit rate of the four major banks is low to the point of embezzlement, I still recommend that everyone deposit large amounts of money into the major banks. Why? A few days ago, there was a so-called deposit special forces. Many young people sit on high-speed crutches to deposit money.

On the surface, they are trying to get a 0.9% interest rate. But in the subconscious, this is a kind of instinctive avoidance. Everyone began to realize that money and deposits are two different things. 你账户里的数字,如果是存在一家深度绑定的

烂尾楼和地方坏账的小银行里, 那么在特别极端的情况下, 这个数字可能真的就只是个数字, 取不出来,转不走。

这就是信任危机,在通说时代,信用是分层的, 国家的信用最硬,央企自知,地方国企再次,民企最弱, 你的钱必须依附在最硬的信用载体上, 才能穿越周期。

三张救命牌 如果前面的分析让你感到极为发凉 不用慌 我这里也给各位送出三张救命牌 请注意 我说的是救命啊 不是发财 在人民币强硬 加国内通缩 再加地缘政治紧张这个特殊的历史节点

任何承诺一定会带你发财的人 大概率是盯着你本尽的骗子 我们的目标非常明确 活着不被收割 保留翻盘的活种 The first line, "Political only holds 15 gold." Many people's understanding of gold still remains on the anti-inflation. I let you buy gold, is it because I think the RMB is going to be depreciated or afraid of the price going up?

Not at all. You go to see the data of the Chinese banks, it has been for more than ten months, even longer, to verify gold.

The country is still in the hands of the high gold price. Why? I

just said it, because they are preventing a terrible risk, systematic decoupling.

It's to have a negotiating table in hand when the dollar-to-dollar system collapses. And

I suggest you buy gold. The principle is a bit similar. It's to be able to exchange bread for cash even if the bank card is frozen in extreme cases.

Our ordinary people are different from the country, but the action of the future must be consistent. Look at the current international situation. Look at the situation after Russia's withdrawal from the SWIFT system. In this turbulent world, if there is an extreme war, disaster, or land conflict in the future, all new currencies,

whether it's the US dollar or the RMB, may face the risk of payment loss, freeze, or even return to zero. At that extreme moment, only gold is a universal language for all mankind. It doesn't need electricity, it doesn't need SWIFT code, it doesn't need any national reserve. It is the physical form of wealth.

So, gold is the last deposit of your family assets. However, it is very important to buy it in a good way. Never buy gold jewelry. The gold necklace you bought at the mall is too expensive. The price of the gold necklace is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the

mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the

mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the

mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the

mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the

mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too high. The price of the gold necklace you bought at the mall is too 必须买实物投资金条,去银行或者照币总公司,买那种最丑的,一价最低的金条。

买了之后,别存在银行保险箱,拿回家,找个安全的地方藏起来。

这部分资产不需要多,占你家庭总资产的10%到15%足矣。

它的作用压根就不是让你明天赚个差价去买菜, 它是为了确保在最坏的情况下,你手里还有生活下去,甚至东山再起的资本。

The second card is the one that is the most anti-human. In the past 20 years, we have been brainwashed to think that if you don't invest money, you will lose money, or if you can't win the CPI, you will become poor. But in the era of the big talk, the logic has to be completely

poor. But in the era of the big talk, the logic has to be completely changed. To keep the capital, you have already won 92% of the people. Look

changed. To keep the capital, you have already won 92% of the people. Look

around you. Those who bought the trust, such as the Chinese Zixi Raid, millions of people have no money. And those who rushed into the stock market, those who were still investing in the buying side last year, their assets not only did not increase, but also disappeared by 30%, 50%, or even 100%. In comparison, if you only put

the money in the four major banks, taking interest rates of 1% to 2%, your purchasing power is actually increasing. Because the asset price dropped by 30%, it's equivalent to your money being promoted. So my suggestion is very specific and can be learned. The first step is to clear up the bad assets at no cost. If you have a house with a 30-line

city empty, a shop that you can't rent, a financial product that has a promise of 80% profit, and a foundation that has been falling, sell it. Even if you lose 20% or 30%, you have to sell it. Don't have a silent mind.

The loss now is to keep the remaining capital. In two years, you may not even think about losing money. After the cash back, the second step is to put the money in a place where it can't fall. At present, there are two better places to withdraw the cash back. Don't mind the low interest rate. In the era of the commoner, interest is a reward for patience, and

rate. In the era of the commoner, interest is a reward for patience, and high income is a gift for capital.

记住一句话,现在任何理财产品只要收益率超过4%,你就应该问自己对方靠什么赚钱来付你的利息,如果他也赚不到钱,那他就是想吞你的本金。

最后一张牌是投资你自己,当资本的回报率也就是利息房租和股价趋近一零甚至为复始,劳动回报率相对来说就是在上升。

But that doesn't mean all the labor is worth money. In the double-edged sword of AI fast-tracking and economic downfall, sitting in a office building doing PPT, doing administrative work, and doing pure capital operation is the weakest group. What kind of people can survive in chaos? There is a word called "anti-weakness". I translate it into the three survival skills of the "transition era". First is the ability to

go out of the sea. Since the house can't roll, then go to roll the money outside. 国内是通缩,但海外大部分地方是通涨,或者是至少需求还在。

money outside. 国内是通缩,但海外大部分地方是通涨,或者是至少需求还在。

如果你是做生意的,一定要学会跨境电商, 把国内极致性价比的产品卖给欧美或者东南亚。

哪怕是一个小小的手机壳, 在国内你卖9块9人民币包邮可能赚不到什么钱, 在亚马逊上卖9.9美元,就是暴利。

如果你是打工的,学好外语, 现在的趋势是中国的企业在疯狂出海, 去越南管工厂,去中东做销售,去非洲搞基建,去做外币,然后再用人民币的地方进行消费。

这是目前最强的套利模式。

除了出海,如果你必须留在国内,那就去学一门提供情绪价值和刚需服务的手艺。

经济越差,人越焦虑,越痛苦。

这个时候越能抚慰人心的行业反而会爆发 养老护理宠物经济甚至悬学 这些是冷冰冰的AI和机器无法替代的 另外修车修家电和理发等等 这些以前看起来低端的手艺 其实是真正的铁饭碗 因为无论经济怎么崩 人总要吃饭

头发总要剪 下水道堵了总要通 In big cities like London and New York, the number of male workers has already exceeded the average. This

trend is also happening in China. Finally, if you really can't go out to sea, and don't want to learn craftsmanship, but want to do business in China, please remember to fight for more and more thinking. Because the theme of the next ten years is only consumption reduction. Don't think about doing high-end, green cars, or doing all kinds of fancy consumerism. That era is over. Who will

be in the future? 谁能把一杯咖啡做到9块9还能赚钱的人

谁能把羽绒服卖到200块钱的人 谁能通过技术或者管理手段把成本压到极致 谁就是通说时代的赢家 这不丢人 这是顺应天道 或者做点口红效应的生意 越是经济差 让人花小钱买快乐的生意越好做 比如廉价的娱乐 减压的零食

或者帮富人省时间的跑腿服务之类的 I sum up these three cards Take out 15% of assets Buy 15 gold to make a base Let a lot of cash be put in the national debt and the four major banks for defense You go learn to go out of the sea or land to maintain the ability to continue to make money This is the most common and practical survival plan

for ordinary people in this era of big chess Learn to sleep in the east 到了视频结尾,我想告诉大家,从经济学意义上来说,我们这代人过去三十年过得太顺了。

我们就像是生活在热带雨林里的生物,习惯了阳光雨露,习惯了只要努力伸手就能摘到果子,习惯了万物只会疯狂生长。

我们的所有经验和直觉,甚至我们对于成功的定义都是建立在扩张这个单一纬度上的。

We don't think tomorrow will be richer than today. We don't think the house will grow if we buy it. We don't think the salary will be a big deal if we skip the grass. Once the climate changes, the winter will come. Those survival instincts that are most proud of in summer, such as radical,

come. Those survival instincts that are most proud of in summer, such as radical, adventurous, or high-end, will immediately become a fatal poison. Look at the current world situation. Look at the layout of the Chinese government. We all need to be

situation. Look at the layout of the Chinese government. We all need to be ready to welcome a long-term collection era. In this era, the logic of survival has completely changed. This cycle is really not as fast as who runs, but

completely changed. This cycle is really not as fast as who runs, but as long as who lives. The actions of the Chinese government now, such as buying gold, holding exchange rates and controlling capital outflow, are actually building a fortress for themselves. The country is a foreign object with unlimited life and right to live. It can think about problems with a hundred-year latitude. It can exchange

to live. It can think about problems with a hundred-year latitude. It can exchange time through tens of billions of debt.

但我们是肉体凡胎,我们的职业生涯只有短短三四十年,我们的家庭经不起任何一次系统性的崩盘。

所以,千万不要看着国家在修长城,你就跟着热血沸腾地去冲锋陷阵。

国家修长城是为了挡住外面的洪水猛兽,而对于此时此刻躲在城墙根脚下的你来说,最紧要的任务只有一件事,修好你自家的屋顶。

Check your financial statements. Those monthly cash flow bills, those investment funds that can't be invested but still have to pay the property tax, those useless financial products, cut them off. Even if you break your arm, it's better than losing your whole life. This is called a virgin in economics. In life, this is

called living through. Many people think this is a kind of impulsive interest.

I want to tell you that in the winter when everything is in danger, only those who know how to be a bear can see the flowers blooming in spring next year. And the so-called winter sleep is definitely not to let you lie down at home and eat people. On the contrary, winter sleep is a state of life with extreme initiative and high standards. It is a face of

wind, it is a tear-stained root. Search your battlefield, don't start a business at this time to open a milk tea shop or a flower shop. Don't think

about going to the stock market to make a 10 times profit Turn down those desire to move Put every penny on the blade And the wallet of the manager Wu In the time of the slander, you pocket every penny of yours As time goes by His purchasing power and his freedom are increasing They are the biggest

base for you to fight unknown The most important thing is to invest in those things that can't be taken away to exercise your body When medical insurance accounts may face pressure, when medical care becomes more and more expensive, your strong heart and muscles are the hundreds of thousands and even millions of money you saved for your family. Go to practice your skills, turn off those soft videos that

make you anxious. Watching videos should be watching my kind of intellectual long videos, or go to a few hard-to-read professional books, go to a few really limited books, go to a professional skill that can solve specific problems. 当潮水退去,挪用的人会被冲走,但那个真正会造船的人永远会被需要,却回归家庭。

在经济高速增长的时候,我们都太忙了,忙着搞钱,忙着应酬,而忽略了家里的那张饭桌。

现在节奏慢下来了,多回家陪陪父母,多抱抱孩子。

在艰难的时代里,家庭内部的温情,家人之间的团结,是能帮你抵押一节寒风的篝火。

朋友们,不要焦虑,不要恐慌。

历史告诉我们,没有任何一个冬天是过不去的。

1929年的大萧条,过去了。

1990年的日本泡沫破裂,也过去了。

那些最终翻身的人,无一例外, 都是在漫长的冬天保住了本金, 磨练了心性和留住了健康的人。

只要留着那一口气,不管是通缩还是通涨, 命运总是会给有准备的人留下一扇窗。

活下去,沉住气,我们春天见。

谢谢大家,我们下期再会。