We Need to Talk About What Elon Just Said About Tesla ⚡️

Finally, after months of waiting, we get an update on 14.3. Elon said it's in testing right now, wide release in a few weeks. The expectations are sky-high for

weeks. The expectations are sky-high for this one. I admittedly have played some

this one. I admittedly have played some small role in that. But the

understanding is this model should have significantly more reasoning and potentially that 10 times bigger parameter model. And if so, as always,

parameter model. And if so, as always, that first release might need some refinement. though it might not go wide

refinement. though it might not go wide until something like 14.3.2.

Then from there, it might require another one or two point releases for everything to be smoothed out and to really see where 14.3 will settle in.

Just don't forget there was a time when we thought 14.3 would be coming toward the end of 2025. So right now the expectation is sometime in April, but do

not be surprised if it slips until May.

And I am hopeful that this will be the model after a few weeks of refinement out in the wild that we will finally see more unsupervised scaling with. And four

things we will all be watching closely.

Navigation improvements, parking lot behavior, speed profiles, and will banish finally arrive with this one where your car drops you off at the destination and then goes and finds a

parking spot on its own. And bonus a fifth. I would love to see a much more

fifth. I would love to see a much more reliable actually smart summon. And I

know that's all a big ask, but this is the one that Elon said should be the last big piece of the puzzle. If you did not yet think getting into semiconductors would be important for

purposes here, hopefully after the next few minutes, you will have changed your mind. Phil Bisel said TTesla's AI5 uses

mind. Phil Bisel said TTesla's AI5 uses a half reticle design, which is crucial for yield. A reticle defines the imaging

for yield. A reticle defines the imaging area of a lithography machine, an EUV machine. Fitting two chips per shot

machine. Fitting two chips per shot effectively doubles yield. If Tesla hits its compute and efficiency targets with AI5 in this half retical format, it's almost like cutting fab requirements in

half. To which Elon said AI5 will punch

half. To which Elon said AI5 will punch far above its weight because the entire Tesla AI software stack is designed to make maximally effective use of every circuit. We co-signed our AI software

circuit. We co-signed our AI software and hardware. Bear in mind AI5 while it

and hardware. Bear in mind AI5 while it can be used for training in data centers is primarily optimized for AI edge compute in Optimus and roboaxi. There's

still significant room for improvement in the same half reticle and the same process node. And we think a single AI6

process node. And we think a single AI6 chip has the potential to match a dual system onchip AI5. Remember Tesla has decided to remove things like a graphics

processor and an ISP or an image signal processor. So removing those elements

processor. So removing those elements from the design because Tesla's software no longer needs them will of course open up more room for AI compute transistors.

In short, the chip will be able to do more of the AI math. To explain this half reticle, just to make sure everybody is up to speed and actually understands it. the EUV lithography

understands it. the EUV lithography machines that right now only one company ASML is making and they're only making in the neighborhood of 50 to 60 of these

giant machines every year. Each machine

costs in the neighborhood of $400 million. And there is some new tech

million. And there is some new tech being developed, but right now commercially at scale, all of this industry is reliant on those EUV lithography machines from ASML alone.

And just think of those EUV machines as the printers for the actual wafers. So

it's the machine that's going to take the design of these chips that companies like Tesla are designing and then print it or etch it into the actual wafer

itself to create the individual dyes. So

let's pretend that this is a wafer and this is an EUV machine. The light from the flashlight is the exposure field that the EUV machine creates. And then

the reticle would be what these companies customize to actually shape the light that's going onto the wafer.

And so a full reticle design means that a die or a chip itself can actually fit inside of this light field. But it's

only one. So for each shot or print from the EUV machine, it only can make one chip or one die. But Tesla's half retical design means that its design for

its chips can actually fit two chips inside this same circular light field.

So in one shot or one print session from the EUV machine, Tesla can actually make two chips instead of one chip for all companies using a full reticle design.

So all EUV machines create this standard size of the circular light in this flashlight example, but each company will customize one the reticle design

that would actually shape how this light hits the book. And they would customize the size of their dyes to determine how many can actually fit inside the

exposure field. So for every one print

exposure field. So for every one print or shot of the EUV machine, Tesla can create two die instead of one, which means relative to a full reticle design,

you only need half of the factory space.

Or with a comparable footprint, you can create twice as many chips. Another

benefit of the half reticle design is that since it's smaller, the yields are usually better because you have less surface area that can effectively be damaged from something like dust or any

other contaminant. And generally

other contaminant. And generally speaking, the less defects and the higher yields you have, the lower the cost per chip will be. And the yield is

just the number of good or usable chips per wafer. So think of a wafer as a big

per wafer. So think of a wafer as a big round pizza and then each chip is one of the dyes that's actually a slice of that pizza. So from one wafer you might end

pizza. So from one wafer you might end up with just say 100 actual usable chips. And of course like with

chips. And of course like with everything else there are some trade-offs to going the half retical route. One being you cannot fit as many

route. One being you cannot fit as many transistors on a smaller design. So from

a raw compute power perspective you just will not have as much headroom. However,

we know Tesla is focused on efficiency and mass scale. And this is why Elon said what he said. AI5 is primarily optimized for AI edge compute, not for

training and data centers. Because with

that trade-off of the half retical design, if you wanted to connect more of these AI5s together, you would have more packaging challenges. again, actually

packaging challenges. again, actually getting each of these dyes connected, which can result in latency and heat and a host of other challenges. But despite

that transistor cap from a half retical design, because Tesla's AI software and hardware are so tightly integrated, it can make up for any of these trade-offs.

So, with the half retical design, Tesla is clearly prioritizing massive volume, lower costs, better yields, and better efficiency. And I've seen questions out

efficiency. And I've seen questions out there, people saying, "Well, if AI6 has the potential to be twice as good as AI5, as Elon just said, why wouldn't

Tesla just skip to AI6?" On the surface, it's a fair question, but think of AI5 as the foundation for this new design.

That's where all of this testing, validation, the new equipment, the new design, all of that will be validated with AI5. Tesla will undoubtedly work

with AI5. Tesla will undoubtedly work through a lot of problems and challenges behind the scenes. And all of those learnings are ultimately what's going to enable Tesla to do something like an

AI6. And as Elon said, with some luck

AI6. And as Elon said, with some luck and acceleration using AI, we might be able to tape out AI6 in December, which likely means the AI6 tape out or final

design stage will be sometime in early 2027. And then from there it would be 6

2027. And then from there it would be 6 months to a year plus before that design can actually make it into production.

Phil Bisel also said for big chips like Tesla's AI5 a half retical design roughly 300 to 450 mm squared producing 100 million chips a year would require

about 100,000 wafer starts per month.

Roughly the output of a single high volume leading edge fab. Very important

distinction. If you see measurements like we'll say 400 mm squared, that's going to be the surface area of one of these die. And then if you see a

these die. And then if you see a measurement for the wafer itself, it's usually going to be just millime. So

again, that's the diameter of the circle. So it would not be squared. And

circle. So it would not be squared. And

let's just say the average size of a wafer is 300 mm when it comes to the diameter. And there's a simple equation

diameter. And there's a simple equation to go from the diameter of that wafer to the actual surface area of the wafer.

And after doing that math for a standard wafer size, it would put us in the neighborhood of 70,600 mm for the surface area of a wafer. So

then we have comparable measurements for the surface area of a wafer and the surface area of one of the smaller dyes that gets cut out of the wafer. And this

will hopefully all make sense in a moment, but Elon responded to this saying probably more like 160,000 wafers per month factoring in yield. So 160,000

wafer starts per month is 1.92 million per year just times 12. And since we know to start Tesla will be aiming for 100 million chips per year, you would

simply take that 100 million chip number and divide it by the number of annual wafer starts, that 1.92 million, which would mean for Tesla to hit its goals,

it would need roughly 52 usable dyes from every wafer. And this is where it all ties back to that surface area math I just laid out. If we assume the

average wafer is 70,000 mm squared and we divide that by let's say 500 mm squared for the average size of each AI5

die. That would give us 140 potential

die. That would give us 140 potential usable dyes from each wafer. Meaning if

Tesla is actually getting 52 usable dyes from each wafer divided by that theoretical capacity that would be a yield of about 37% which for a two

nanometer facility that is frontier level tech that's typically where things are expected to start but of course if long-term if Tesla can get the yield up

into the neighborhood of 60% with the same wafer and die size you would take that 140 theoretical capacity of each

wafer times 60% that would give you 84 chips per wafer times that 1.92 million wafers per year that would be

1.6 6 million usable chips per year, just jumping up to a 60% yield. And

then, in case you forgot, Elon did say that eventually the Terrafab will be expecting to reach 1 million wafer starts per month, which is nearly an

order of magnitude jump from where it plans to start at that roughly 160,000 wafer starts per month. So listen, I understand if you're pretty new to this whole world, you might need to go back

and watch that session one or two or more times because as we spend more time talking about the semiconductor space, having a base understanding of the naming and the measurements and the

wafers and dyes and all of the fundamentals of the space will be crucial to understand where things are going and again to have any chance of actually understanding why Tesla is

making the decisions it's making. And to

finish it off, back to what Phil said, at current industry efficiency, that translates to about 1 to 2 million square ft of clean room space. That

being roughly 100,000 wafer starts per month. And since the clean room usually

month. And since the clean room usually takes up around 20 to 35% of total facility area, the initial terraab phase would likely span between 4 and 10

million square ft. For context, Giga Texas is right around 10 million square ft. But arguably the most important

ft. But arguably the most important thing Phil said, "The point of Terraab's redesign is to break conventional fab assumptions, compressing more output into less space so that extreme

production volume becomes achievable."

So we already have four aspects that Tesla will be customizing. The logic,

the memory, the packaging, and the clean rooms. And so current industry assumptions and norms are just that Tesla will be looking to take a step forward from all of those metrics. And

so hopefully this segment made it clear that Tesla going with a half retical design is not some minor footnote. It

will fundamentally have direct impacts on the efficiency, on the yields, and on the output and the cost of all of it.

And who knows what type of transparency Tesla will give us into the Terra Fab developments. And in the future when

developments. And in the future when it's actually producing chips, will it give us a breakdown of what's going on during quarterly or semianual reports?

Either way, I plan to do everything in my power to keep regular electrified viewers informed and educated on this critical new portion of Tesla's business. So, we've been talking about

business. So, we've been talking about how Tesla is using AI to do things that most people still think is years away.

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joindeleteme.com/electrified to get 20% off using my code electrified linked below or by using the QR code on the screen. Sawyer got some more photos

the screen. Sawyer got some more photos from another follower that Tesla's robo taxi service is now testing in Orlando, Florida. The same situation we just saw

Florida. The same situation we just saw in Las Vegas and Dallas. Multiple Model

Y with the rear camera washers and Texas manufacturer plates. Of course, the big

manufacturer plates. Of course, the big question remains, how long from this type of testing until actually launching the service? But it does seem like Tesla

the service? But it does seem like Tesla launching in Las Vegas, Dallas, and Orlando are all imminent. And if you look at Whimo's map, you'll see they are

serving riders in Orlando. Now, if you just compare the population of Austin to Orlando, you'll find that Orlando is about onethird the size in terms of

population compared to Austin. However,

I think the more important metric would be how many annual visitors visit each city. And from that perspective, Orlando

city. And from that perspective, Orlando easily gets twice as many annual visitors as Austin. And so tourism and people wanting experiences and maybe not

wanting to rent cars, Orlando should be a great setup from a tourism perspective. And of course, the same

perspective. And of course, the same thing would apply for Las Vegas. And

this was the most recent geoence for Whimo in Orlando that I could find. And

some of the reporting from February says it covers around 60 square miles. But in

my opinion, by far the number one question, how long will the safety monitors be in the vehicles for each new city for Tesla's robo taxi? Will it be 7 months like Austin, or will Tesla be

able to cut that number down significantly? And right now, Whimo's

significantly? And right now, Whimo's geoence in Orlando does not cover Disney, the airport, or any parts of downtown Orlando. However, this right

downtown Orlando. However, this right here is something to watch. Lyft has

actually been named the official ride share of Walt Disney World. Lyft and

Disney parks and resorts will collaborate in a number of exciting new ways, including an enhanced presence at Disney resorts. So, that's not an

Disney resorts. So, that's not an official reason why Whimo is not yet covering parts of Disney. Remember,

Whimo just launched its service in Orlando in February this year. But the

last point, Disney does have plenty of private property or internal roads that any third-party provider like Tesla's robo taxi or Whimo would have to get

approval from for Disney. And I'll say what needs to be said. Hopefully, very

soon Tesla starts shipping customer cars with all of the camera cleaners. Today,

Nitsa has escalated one of its probes into Tesla. This on 3.2 2 million Tesla

into Tesla. This on 3.2 2 million Tesla vehicles with FSD because the system may fail to detect or warn drivers in poor visibility. This preliminary evaluation

visibility. This preliminary evaluation was opened back October 2024, but now the agency is opening an engineering analysis, a required step before it can

seek a recall. Nitsa said its investigation raises concerns the Tesla camerabased system did not detect common roadway conditions like glare, dust, or other airborne obstructions that

impaired camera visibility or provide alerts when camera performance deteriorated until immediately before a crash. Nitsa said it had reports of nine

crash. Nitsa said it had reports of nine incidents that may be tied to the issue, including one fatal crash and two injury crashes, and was investigating whether six other crashes may be related. Nitsa

said the data raises concerns the system fails to detect or warn drivers appropriately under degraded visibility conditions which some of you might find as odd because in my experience anytime

there's any bit of rain I always get that warning FSD performance may be degraded but Nitsa said in many of the crashes reviewed FSD also lost track of

or never detected a lead vehicle in its path. Bear in mind, this now preliminary

path. Bear in mind, this now preliminary investigation is separate from another one into 2.8 million Tesla vehicles where there were more than 50 reports of

traffic safety violations and a series of crashes. Nitsa said FSD has induced

of crashes. Nitsa said FSD has induced vehicle behavior that violated traffic safety laws. Tesla's analysis showed

safety laws. Tesla's analysis showed that if an update to the degradation detection system was installed at the time of the crash, it may have affected three of the incidents. Nitsa plans to

examine the performance of the updated system, including when it was deployed, how widely it's been rolled out, and whether it improves the systems ability to detect visibility issues and alert

drivers in time. You guys know I always try to avoid pointing the finger for any daily Tesla stock price performance, but I will say in this case, I understand

why so many would point the finger at this news. Now, an engineering analysis

this news. Now, an engineering analysis upgrade like this is certainly nothing new for Tesla. It's happened before, but from here it might be anywhere from 3 months to a year plus until Nitsa

actually decides what they want to do.

There will be a back and forth, data gathering, communications, and testing.

And if Nitsa decides, it could issue a recall. But as we know, it would most

recall. But as we know, it would most likely just be a software update. And

remember, as we saw, Tesla already shipped a software update addressing these concerns that Nitsa will now be reviewing. So, it's something to keep an

reviewing. So, it's something to keep an eye on, not because of the stock move today, but because of all of the federal conversation happening when it comes to sensors, autonomous vehicles, what's

required, what's safe, and so on. So,

the sooner Tesla's camera only system can be cleared of any wrongdoing or shortcomings, I think the better. At

least when it comes to the regulatory environment being comfortable with Tesla's camera only approach. We learned

Uber is planning to invest up to 1.25 25 billion in Rivian through 2031 as Uber is expected to buy 10,000 fully

autonomous R2 robo taxis with the option to buy up to 40,000 more in 2030.

Initial commercial deployments are planned for San Francisco and Miami in 2028, scaling to 25 cities through 2031.

Now look, this comes at a perfect time.

We just got done explaining how everybody and their brother will be announcing partnerships when it comes to autonomy. Every company wants its

autonomy. Every company wants its shareholders to be excited that they're going to have a role in our autonomous future. And as we've said, Uber really

future. And as we've said, Uber really has no choice but to seek out every single company that says the word autonomy to try to acquire them or create a deal with them. Should all

milestones be achieved, the companies will have deployed thousands of unsupervised Rivian R2 robo taxis across 25 cities in the US, Canada, and Europe

by the end of 2031. But initial

deployments in two cities in 2028, which effectively gives them 2 years to make some type of magic happen. But spoiler

alert, it's not going to happen. If

you're not familiar with where Rivian is at today with its UHF universal hands-free system, I'd highly encourage you to watch this video from Devon Olsen. I will have it linked below. The

Olsen. I will have it linked below. The

TLDDW, it does not seem very safe. It

seems very jerky and uncomfortable. And

for somebody like Devon that's very techforward and comfortable with autonomous vehicles, even he was having some issues with the UI in the Rivian and understanding what level of driver

assistance was active. Now, in fairness, I will say anybody coming from FSD trying the system from Riven, the expectations are impossible to meet. And

of course, the experience would be very different if someone has never used FSD or really any advanced driver assistance features. And let me be clear, I would

features. And let me be clear, I would love to be wrong about all of this. I

desperately want to see autonomous vehicles that are actually safe proliferate around the world. I have

just seen way too many promises and way too many failures from legacy auto companies and other tech companies trying to copy Tesla thinking they're going to do it but in the end ultimately

failing. And Rivian's not a legacy auto

failing. And Rivian's not a legacy auto company, but we have Legacy Auto that could not figure out how to make EVs profitably. Yet now they're all

profitably. Yet now they're all partnering up with Nvidia saying that they're going to solve for autonomy.

I'm sorry, but I'm just not buying it.

Tesla has some interesting new job postings. is one for a technical program

postings. is one for a technical program manager for infrastructure semiconductor aka Tesla is officially hiring for the terra fab. This one will be engineering

terra fab. This one will be engineering integration, utility planning and factory design and construction from concept through execution. Tesla also

has 12 job postings right now for various social media content roles.

Video content producer for AI and one is content producer for roboaxi. This

person will conceptualize, capture, and edit video projects that support the robo taxi program. The content will include public-f facing videos that tell the story of robo taxi, like product,

factory, and industry updates, customer engagement content, and creative content for assembly line and manufacturing scenarios. I do think it's fair to take

scenarios. I do think it's fair to take this as a sign that Tesla is gearing up to get the word out there a bit more about robo taxi. And on that point, Morgan Stanley just said they're more

optimistic about Tesla's progress toward an unsupervised robo taxi rollout after a recent visit to Giga Texas, particularly its progress in addressing edge cases around pickup and drop off,

which ties right back to 14.3. If it can add significant reasoning, especially when it comes to parking lot behavior, which will be massive for pickup and drop off, that absolutely could be one

of the bottlenecks for scaling right now. Morgan Stanley said FSD scaling is

now. Morgan Stanley said FSD scaling is the most important thing for Tesla this year. No surprise. But after a site

year. No surprise. But after a site visit and likely talking to some engineers, they're feeling more confident. I was waiting for some more

confident. I was waiting for some more clarity on that Fox reporting on the Cybert truck crash that was framed as FSD on the Cybertruck nearly driving a mother and her baby off an overpass. But

anybody that saw the video and has ever used FSD would know that FSD would not behave like that. And Elon said the log showed the driver disengaged autopilot 4

seconds before crashing. So for the entirety of that video, FSD was not engaged. And if you missed it, this was

engaged. And if you missed it, this was the video in question.

I'm not going to give this clown any more airtime than he deserves. I learned

months back that Matt Watson from CarWow UK is super anti-Tesla, very similar to Jerryrigg everything, suffering from a severe case of EDS. They just released a

video that was initially titled Tesla full self-driving is pointless, but after being called out vehemently in the comments, he has since changed it to why Tesla's enhanced autopilot is pointless.

But of course, in the video, he still refers to it as FSD. But as we know, FSD is not even available in the UK. So

ultimately, he's running tests with EAP on streets that it's not designed to be used on. And thankfully, plenty of

used on. And thankfully, plenty of people are in the comments saying how embarrassing this video actually is. But

I bring it up as a reminder. As Tesla

gets closer to actually scaling, there will be targeted attacks and smear campaigns against Tesla and FSD, especially across parts of the EU where

largely those people have not experienced true FSD. As we know, legacy automakers over there have zero chance of offering anything close to the full

capability of FSD. So once customers over there realize what Tesla has to offer and the regulatory blockers are removed, we say things like it's over a

lot. So it becomes trite. But once

lot. So it becomes trite. But once

people across the EU actually see FSD for what it can really do, it really should spread like wildfire even if it's supervised. But again, just prepare

supervised. But again, just prepare yourself for all kinds of frustrating nonsense from all corners of the earth against Tesla and FSD. This one is

basically Mark Robber, Luminar, and LiDAR part two. Sawyer said Tesla's asking a Colorado federal court to throw out a suit alleging a defect in its autopilot tech led to a fatal car crash.

Tesla saying the evidence shows autopilot was not on and that the driver was drunk well beyond the legal limit.

Elon replied to that saying, "Common story." So, not only will there be

story." So, not only will there be targeted smear campaigns taking place, but we will have plenty of greedy, opportunistic people that will be looking to point the finger blaming

Tesla and its technology instead of taking accountability and responsibility themselves trying to get a payout. And

that won't be the case every time. There

may be some instances where Tesla is actually at fault to a degree, but by and large, many of the cases we have seen have ended up in Tesla's favor.

Once all of the facts and the data come out, I will say sometimes Elon does not make sense or I'm just not comprehending what he's saying today. He said Google

will win the AI race in the west, China on Earth, and SpaceX in space. This only

a few hours after saying that SpaceX in a few years would dominate everybody else combined. But now Google is going

else combined. But now Google is going to win in the West, China on Earth. So

does that exclude the West? What does

that mean for Google in the west?

Because if China wins on Earth, then that would mean they out compete Google.

And now Elon is just saying SpaceX will win in space. Honestly, guys, sometimes all I'm going to have for you is an I don't know. And this is one of those

don't know. And this is one of those times. Frankly, I think that most

times. Frankly, I think that most predictions about AI, no matter who it's coming from, will ultimately end up being wrong. But you can make of that

being wrong. But you can make of that what you will. Tesla stock closed the day at $380.30, down 3.18%

while the NDX was down 29%. The volume

was 14% above the average. Don't forget,

if you'd like to metaphorically slap some of these scammers to sign up for Delete Me linked below, grab that 20% off and thank you for supporting the channel. Hope you all have a wonderful

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