What I Learned in 2025 About the Shifting Balance of Power (USA, China, Russia, India, Europe)

You want to make sense of how the world order has changed in 2025.

You are looking for a story to explain how the American world order has crumbled. Why the sources of power in

crumbled. Why the sources of power in the world are not what they used to be.

Let me give you a simple framework about what makes great powers powerful and how that has changed in 2025.

The balance of power around the world has changed dramatically. Let's take two examples from this year.

India, China and Russia clasped hands at the SEO summit in Tanzhin.

Meanwhile, in December, after the release of the National Security Strategy, the USA claimed that Europe's

civilization was about to collapse.

Three friends, two frenemies.

what is going on.

To understand that change, you cannot rely on realist international relations theory. It's assumptions about power are

theory. It's assumptions about power are just too simple. History is much better

at explaining how power and great states work in this changing world.

Let me set the scene first. There are

five major powers in the world today.

The USA, Europe, Russia, China, and India. And here's what makes this moment

India. And here's what makes this moment unique, different to 19th century or the 20th century.

There is no clearly dominant power. All

five have major strengths and weaknesses.

There is no single test of power.

There's no scoreboard that determines who's winning. And most IR analysts are

who's winning. And most IR analysts are still catching up with this. Especially

US-based realist models of the world.

They just no longer work. The American

elite and populists are trapped in their beliefs about primacy, the American path, greatness and exceptionalism.

And the big change, the big unique thing is the 3M world. As Keshaw Marabi says, it's multipolar, multilateral, and

multi-vilizational.

Multi-ivilizational.

Just think about that for a moment. All

five major powers think of themselves as civilization states. But America claims

civilization states. But America claims to be the greatest civilization in world history and dares to suggest that

Europe's civilization, which is largely what America's civilization is, will be erased.

American insecurity about its leadership makes it blind to the 3M world. But you

don't need to be blind to it. All this

year, I've been following the fortunes of these five major states on my Substack, looking into how their histories explain today's international

relations tensions, the changing balance of power around the world. And I want to share with you the most important

insights I've gained about each one of these five major powers.

But first, there's something important to say about power and realism.

Standard IR theory oversimplifies power and how states interact.

States can actually draw power from at least seven sources. It's not all money and guns. There are economic resources

and guns. There are economic resources which include technology and available e commodities. There's demographic power,

commodities. There's demographic power, population, there's territory.

It occupy a large part of the world.

There's military capability, cultural influence, and soft power. A

key part of American influence in the 20th century, diplomatic networks, and last but not least, governing skill and

capacity, how well they play the game.

Though there are indexes of power and claims to be number one, there is no real scoreboard in international

relations. It all depends on the

relations. It all depends on the situation and as Amitavaria has said power and leadership is contextual, multi-dimensional and

situational and that's why history helps explain today.

Many sources of power actually create many possibilities even for the powerless. Where USA and the west cling

powerless. Where USA and the west cling to dominance the rest of the world see opportunities as Indian external affairs

minister Dr. SJ Shanka has said and crucially the USA is not number one on any of those vectors of power. I've

an article on my subject that explains that in more detail if you want to go into it.

American primacy or the uniole world has collapsed because of the opportunities for others created by those many vectors

of power and how they create dynamic situations.

And this has been the story of 2025.

America trying to be great again. the

rest of the world with some exceptions including Australia. Moving on,

including Australia. Moving on, we have seen major shifts in relations between these states with two standout

moments.

Modi C and Putin at Tanjin when Russia, India and China class hands at the CSO and the US national security strategy

when the USA accused Europe of civilizational erasia. The first

civilizational erasia. The first displayed the rebalancing of the world that so many have talked about this year

and I won't belabor the point. But the

second revealed not new realism but American insecurity about the loss of its soft power and prestige.

The transatlantic relationship has descended into a violent and abusive partnership.

The USA bullies, bashes, binds, and abuses Europe.

And what's more, it has the gore to claim that America, the home of McDonald's and the land of mass

shootings, is the pinnacle of Western civilizational achievement.

Well, indeed at Valdi this year, Vladimia Putin referred to this abusive relationship by making a cryptic

reference to Jupiter's rape of Europa.

And as we know, escaping domestic violence and abuse isn't easy. It takes

courage that European leaders do not have right now. But Europe, you have friends around the world if you look and

ask for help. Now before I go through my historical insights on each five states, I want to add an important qualification.

We are not in a world where these five civilizational states simply carve up the globe between themselves

or where the USA turns Europe into a vassel.

Five states do stand out in their relative power, but they are not the only ones who can exercise power, influence, and initiative. Despite all

the rhetoric, there are no vassels today. We live in a networked world

today. We live in a networked world where sovereignty is never pure, where no state is isolated, where every state

is constrained by factors outside its borders in this tangled globalized world. But what's more, every state is

world. But what's more, every state is empowered by those same external relationships.

Historians know what IR theorists exclude from their model. Indeed, the

postwar American order of thinking about the world is crumbling more than world order is. And it's crumbling under the

order is. And it's crumbling under the pressure of those historical changes that I have called the changing tides of globalization.

So let me share some key insights from history that will help explain how each of these states are is managing this

moment of shifting power around the world. The USA first. Well, my key

world. The USA first. Well, my key insight here is that America's bitterness towards Europe displayed in the national security strategy makes

sense only when you understand the concept and the history of greater Europe.

On my world history tour on Substack of the USA this year, I looked at the Hispanic history of America, Barack Obama, healthc care, the frontier myth,

and the hedgeimony project. But the big idea I want to share with you is this.

The USA's history is best understood as part of what historian John Darwin calls greater Europe. Indeed, in this book

greater Europe. Indeed, in this book that I've shared with you on the program, greater Europe is Darwin's term for the broadly related zone in which

the idea of the West was invented.

Europe, North America, and Russia. They

formed Greater Europe, a broadly cohesive political, economic, and cultural zone. But here's the problem.

cultural zone. But here's the problem.

They've also been caught in a toxic threesome.

Most discourse about America versus Europe, the old world versus the new world simply doesn't get this, including

the idea that 500 years of European colonialism is breaking down and that somehow the USA was separate from that.

America was and remains the western frontier of greater Europe. But the

toxic freom is now finally breaking up.

The USA has acted too long like a violent abusive partner in a may a lot of the dynamics we're seeing reflect uh

how Russia and now Europe are wanting out but struggling to get out.

Russia has largely left even if every now and then it is tempted to return and

Europe is stuck. But will it plan its escape in 2026?

You might want to check my conversations with Don Watson and Felipe Fernandez Amesto, which I will include in my Substack if you want more on the USA's

history. China. Now, my key insight on

history. China. Now, my key insight on China is that China has developed its own form of modernity. It's not

following the American path. Okay. The

great mistake that IR theorists like John Mishima that so many foreign policy practitioners in the United States have

made is to assume China will follow the US trajectory that American history will will be replayed in China. They make

this error because they generalize the unique history of the USA and its hedgeimonyy project and they turn it into a universal theory of great power

politics.

On my substack this year, I went carefully through Klaus Muhan's making China modern and he makes clear that

China has developed its own distinct form of modernity in its political institutions, its economy, its culture, its social arrangements.

The big insight we need to rethink is the ideas of modernity in relation to China. The errors of the fusidities trap

China. The errors of the fusidities trap thinking debate stem from this misunderstanding. China is not pursuing

misunderstanding. China is not pursuing the American hedgeimonyy project that has dominated the mental world of

Anglo-American IR scholars since the early 20th century. America indeed has fallen into a narcissistic illusion that

China would become like America.

but and has now broken out in a resentful um realization of that. But in

a way, China might also have fallen into its own trap of thinking that uh it has forged a unique development path as do

people who attribute a unique genius to the long-term thinking and planning in China. Remember

China. Remember the one child policy was the work of reformer Dang Xiaoing not chairman Mao

and though there is a lot of nonsense spoken about demograph demographic collapse in population in China the one

child policy is a key counter example to the myth of omniscient superior Chinese forward planning as indeed perhaps is

the cultural revolution. A topic I hope to return to next year as it's as much about human history as it is about China specifically.

You know, I started the year not knowing all that much really about Chinese history and learning about Chinese this history. This year has been a

history. This year has been a fascinating experience for me. modeling

if you like the uh construction of a personal curriculum in history something I offer you on my substack it's been a real privilege to discuss China's

history this year with Warrick Pal Linda Javan and Michael Pembroke the key insight I took from my reading on Indian history this year is that

decolonization is a much more complex and incomplete pro process than I realized and most

people realized and that India's rise challenges colonial mindsets everywhere.

It was a real joy this year to read through Joya Chatty's Shadows at Noon uh the South Asian 20th century which focuses on South Asia's 20th century and

shows how India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are not from separate worlds. They are

from the same South Asian 20th century.

They are tangled together in culture, experience, family, society, and film.

This perspective was a refreshing break from the great power politics focus of so much geopolitical commentary. It gets

to a deeper level about how societies and history really works.

Indeed, Joy Chatty makes the comment that 1947 was as important a marker for India as 1945.

Decolonization, independence and of course partition.

Decolonization has really come in three waves over the 20th century and it is not over. It's about minds as well as

not over. It's about minds as well as sovereignty. It's about culture as well

sovereignty. It's about culture as well as politics. And in some ways, India's

as politics. And in some ways, India's rise to great power status challenges residual colonial hegemonic mindsets in

the USA, in Europe, and even perhaps in China. There were some great questions I

China. There were some great questions I had of Joya Chattagy's um uh history of the 20th century. And uh it also

introduced me to the work of historian Martin Thomas who noted that decolonization was one of the principal driving factors of history in the 20th

century. In many ways far more important

century. In many ways far more important than the cold war after 1945 or the liberal rules-based order that so many

of us talk about. And decolonization is still incomplete.

India's story helps us reframe the story of the 20th and 20th 21st century as waves of decolonization.

And this is going to be a major theme I'll be returning to in the first season of my Substack and YouTube content next year. But if you want to check back on

year. But if you want to check back on my interviews and the Substack world history tour, uh my interviews with Ravi

Shanka and Salvatore Babonis, please do.

Europe. My key insight on Europe has been that Europe has always been multi-olar multilateral and multi-ivilizational.

The whole civilizational collapse narrative, the whole nationalist American propaganda about that simply makes no sense. I very much stood apart

from much of the commentary that claims Europe is in civilizational collapse.

This is a very biased nationalistic focused account that I think deeply misunderstands the history of Europe. Of

course, the literature on European history is vast. So this year on my substack, I took the approach of looking

at eight or eight years in Europe's history that changed everything.

The big insight I'd add is this. Europe

has always been multipolar, multilateral, and multi-ivilizational.

It just has a tendency to forget this when it gets carried away by ideas of civilizational mission, the west and

ethno nationalism.

Think about this for example, the contribution of the pagan Vikings to western culture, not just Christianity

and Rome. the Byzantine or Eastern Roman

and Rome. the Byzantine or Eastern Roman Empire which was a great cosmopolitan meeting point of Asia, Africa, Europe

and the north and contact with the Islamic world, the or Muslim Europe,

whether in Spain or in South and Eastern Europe and indeed also in Russia and the

role of Spain, the often neglected today role of Spain in European history, its culture, its empire, its crucial role in

20th century conflicts, including the Spanish Civil War, a key instigator of the Second World War, the multi-ivilizational

influences on Europe uh that created modernism in the 20th century. And what

really happened in 1648 at the peace of West failure, the global cultural revolution of 1968. Too much of the

commentary on Europe is based on dated, ill-informed and US centered interpretations of European history. It

reflects a long tradition of contrasting the new versus the old, of constructing history as a nationalistic story,

and of portraying the decadent Europeans versus the pioneer frontiers of America.

It's not that Europe does not have its problems, but if you want better insights, do check my Substack series and my interviews this year with

Samantha Rose Hill Tarik uh Churro Amar and Kavul Alasian and indeed my great series of interviews with Michael Jabal

Cari about what really happened in the complex diplomacy of European powers and America leading into the Second World War.

The fifth and final state I looked at was Russia. And my key insight is that

was Russia. And my key insight is that history can help dampen down the Russian hatred, the Russophobia

uh by putting talk of eur Russian Empire and aggression in a proper context. We

should not fear Russia. The phenomenon

of russophobia is more complex than the term suggests. Historian Mark B. Smith

term suggests. Historian Mark B. Smith

in the Russia anxiety refers to a cycle of fear, contempt, and disregard. The

Russia anxiety syndrome. I'd add that there is also an element of hatred which we see too often today.

History can dampen down this hatred by putting talk of Russian empire and aggression that Russia's always pursuing

an expansionist empire to bed. Indeed,

Smith dismisses the common propaganda trope that imperial expansion is in Russian blood. As he wrote,

Russian blood. As he wrote, "Expansionism isn't an indispensable part of Russia's historic political culture. It is not an especially Russian

culture. It is not an especially Russian phenomenon but it is a re reality of

European and then global politics.

This perspective challenges the hatred especially coming from Angloamerican um academics and uh foreign policy

establishments. The historical evidence

establishments. The historical evidence suggests that Russia is not at the extremes of imperial violence. It is not

the bad actor of world politics, habitually in breach of international norms. We all know who that is. It is

not, as Ka Kalas uh has said ludicrously, a state that has launched many wars in the 20th century but never

been attacked. Not even according to

been attacked. Not even according to Kaakalis in operation barbarasa.

Of course, many people were ruthlessly exploited over the course of Russian history. It's one reason there was a

history. It's one reason there was a revolution in 1917 and another one you could say in 1989 to 911. But such

exploitation was not unique to Russia.

It was similar to the United States and the European empires indeed and non-European empires. Indeed, Smith's

non-European empires. Indeed, Smith's judgment is that Russia and the Soviet Union were less cruel, violent, and

coercive as modern empires than the USA with its shameful, often concealed record of enslavement, genocide of

Native Americans, uh, and others, combat with rivals, British, French, and Spanish, and subjection of Latin America from the time of the Monroe Doctrine.

in 1825 until the Trump corollery of the man of the Monroe doctrine in 2025.

As Smith asked, was Russia an empire where America was a republic? Checkmate

interviews with Richard Saqua, Sheila Fitzpatrick, Michael Jabara Cari, and from a couple of years ago, Marie Favo on how the Mongols changed Russia and

the world. And do go over to my Substack

the world. And do go over to my Substack where you can get my complete recap of the world history tour over January. And

I will also be uh digging into this great book on America in the new year.

America, America, a history of the new world. So, let me recap. Those are the

world. So, let me recap. Those are the five key historical insights that help explain today's shifting balance of power. The USA part of a toxic greater

power. The USA part of a toxic greater Europe freom that's breaking up. China

following its own path through modernity, not America's. India leading

incomplete waves of decolonization that challenge colonial mindsets everywhere.

Europe always multipolar and multi-ivilizational and not in collapse or civilizational

erasia. And Russia not uniquely

erasia. And Russia not uniquely aggressive or imperial context matters.

Over January, I'm gathering all my World History Tour posts together alongside the key interviews I've done over the last couple of years into recaps

organized by each of the five great states. Why don't you subscribe to

states. Why don't you subscribe to jeffrich.substack.com

jeffrich.substack.com to enjoy them all. Thanks for watching and I'll see you in the next