What To Do If You Missed Out on Gold and Silver

So, gold and silver are putting an absolute dent in the universe, I guess, in the financial markets. Let me calm down.

And you've got boomers all over the world jumping for joy. And you got the crypto bros in shambles questioning

their entire existence. Because over the past few days, we've had gold outperforming the S&P by four times and

silver outperforming the S&P by eight times on the year. So, you might be asking yourself, what exactly is going on? And what can you do about this? Did

on? And what can you do about this? Did

you just miss out on a once in a-lifetime opportunity? Uh, do you just

a-lifetime opportunity? Uh, do you just go all in on gold or on silver? or do

you look at some of the other precious metals like copper, palladium or platinum? Decided to let my hair down

platinum? Decided to let my hair down here. But let's take a second to fully

here. But let's take a second to fully look at what is happening in these markets and break down an actual framework for how

to look at this as a market participant.

Before we get started, I want to make it abundantly clear that this is not financial advice and you should not do anything based upon anything that some random guy talking to a stick in the

middle of a park has to say. Now, with

that said, if your best idea right now is to just sell everything and go all in on gold and silver right now, then you should definitely watch this until the end. So let's talk about the foundation

end. So let's talk about the foundation of how to look at the price of gold and silver because if we don't get this right then it completely distorts the discussion that we need to have here.

For instance, we cannot only measure the price of gold and silver in terms of US dollars because the value of US dollars are not consistent. In fact, they're

constantly losing value, not only in terms of other currencies, but also in terms of what you can actually buy with these dollars. As central banks go out

these dollars. As central banks go out and print more and more dollars, each dollar is worth less. So really, it can be a little bit of a hack to look at the

price of precious metals in terms of real life goods and services or in terms of assets. When we look at the value of

of assets. When we look at the value of gold versus the S&P 500, then we have nowhere near an all-time high being put

in, we're not even back to the 2011 highs. But what does that really mean?

highs. But what does that really mean?

This means that the amount of S&P 500 shares that you can get for every ounce of gold is just now getting anywhere near the levels that we saw in 2011.

Now, to make this more real, let's look at housing. We have a very similar story

at housing. We have a very similar story when you look at the price of gold versus the median house price in the US.

We have yet to even come close to the highs of 2011. Meaning, the amount of house that you get for 1 ounce of gold is just now starting to get past the

levels that we saw even in 2020 and is nowhere near where we were in 2011. Now,

mind you, in 2011, we had a housing crash. So, that also made gold

crash. So, that also made gold relatively more expensive compared to the price of a house. Now, from a macro perspective, there's something really important about this that people aren't

talking about enough. Uh, I saw a tweet from Mike Mclo at Bloomberg Intelligence pointing this out. He says, "What's happening right now is so unique because precious metals have never rallied at

such a high velocity while stock market volatility was so low." And so this is really, really important, okay? Because

what's happening right now is that while it looks like everything in the stock market is fine, what we're actually potentially about to see here is markets

having a historical crash, but no one's going to notice because it won't be in terms of dollars. It could be in terms of gold and silver. A real time

devaluation of the dollar playing out through precious metals markets. Now,

I'm not saying that this is what has to happen, but what I am saying is that this is a real possibility and it's something that you want to look out for when trying to make sense of what's

actually happening in the markets. Okay.

So, now what? What does this mean for you and what can you do about it? Well,

now that we understand that it might be worth looking at the value of gold and silver through the lens of other assets, let's also actually simplify things back to just looking at gold and silver in

terms of dollars. Because this does also play into the psychology of other market participants who aren't privy to what we just went over. Just because an asset is sitting at all-time highs in terms of

dollars doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Look at the most recent example

higher. Look at the most recent example that we have from the commodities cycle from 2000 to 2011. Now, we had key fundamental drivers in the market that

led to a decadel long rally in the price of gold and silver. But that also doesn't mean that prices cannot have violent 20 plus% corrections in the middle of a trend like that. And it also

doesn't mean that prices can't just rally like they just did and then go sideways for another decade instead of continuing this rally. And this leads me to a very important point here and this

is something that is worth noting. When

we're looking at the macroeconomic environment as market participants, we can look at market trends in terms of three key time frames. The first is

called secular trends. These are broad multi-deade trends that you can look at as being defined by major forces like technological shifts, demographics,

globalization or government policies.

And then you have cyclical trends which are shorter term patterns within secular trends often tied to the business cycle or central bank actions. Now these can

still be multiple years at a time. But

then you also have the third being tactical trends which are very short-term market movements driven by news sentiment temporary liquidity or specific events. And when it comes to

specific events. And when it comes to what's happening with gold and silver, I want to point out four key trends that live within each of these time frames.

The first thing that we need to consider is the secular trend of dd dollararization. Countries around the

dollararization. Countries around the world are trying to find a way to get off of the US dollar and gold is the perfect answer to how that can be done.

As Jim Rickards said in a speech recently, we might be foolish to sit on the edge of our seat waiting for a bricks currency because they already

have one and it's called gold. With gold

in particular, we have central banks around the world that are net buyers of gold and they have been since 2010. And

that number is increasing with central bank buying of gold continuing to rise.

We even have stable coin issuers like Tether that are becoming a major buyer of gold. Now the second major trend that

of gold. Now the second major trend that we want to keep an eye on here, this one can be considered either secular or cyclical depending upon how you look at it is that we have an insane amount of

investment going into artificial intelligence development and that's coming from a nation state level as well. Gold and silver are vital

well. Gold and silver are vital components of the entire artificial intelligence supply chain and the value chain. We're talking not only are they

chain. We're talking not only are they necessary for the chips, but also in the data centers themselves and also in the energy equation, which is what people aren't talking about enough, but we have

to increase our energy capacity across the world. And gold and silver also play

the world. And gold and silver also play a massive role in that side of things as well. Now, as of right now, you might

well. Now, as of right now, you might really consider this a cyclical trend, but it could be seen as a secular trend depending upon how this continues to go moving forward. The next thing we have

moving forward. The next thing we have to talk about is cyclical, and that is that there is a huge inflation and uncertainty hedging demand for gold and silver. Individual investors and

silver. Individual investors and institutions around the world know that we are living through turbulent and uncertain times, and they're expecting inflation and higher long-term interest rates, especially out of the US. And

because of this, they've been displaying their desire to protect against this through the purchase of gold through several ETFs as well. And finally, we have a tactical trend to consider. Uh in

silver in particular, we've been seeing these massive shortages in the physical markets. So if this settles down, I mean

markets. So if this settles down, I mean that could cause a corrective jerk reaction in the price of silver. Now, on

the other hand, we have that on January 1st, 2026, China is about to implement an export ban on silver. And now, China is the second largest producer of silver

in the world. And if they're going to stop all their exports next week, then 13% of the world's silver supply could potentially be coming off the market.

Now, maybe that leads to a face ripping rally in the price. or is this the reason that the price of silver is already rallying? Is this already priced

already rallying? Is this already priced in? So on the tactical side, it'll be

in? So on the tactical side, it'll be important to stay nimble because if this gold and silver rally continue, then it might be worth trying to find ways to

buy the dip. So the point of all this is that just because you have a lot of things that are on your side, that doesn't mean that you get to just put your life savings into gold and silver right now. In fact, that could be a

right now. In fact, that could be a disastrous decision to make. Because the

thing here with secular, cyclical, and tactical trends is that it can get difficult when these three things converge or pointing in different directions or even pointing all in the

same direction. For instance, if we look

same direction. For instance, if we look at AI, right, we have a secular shift in technology. But we're also seeing uh

technology. But we're also seeing uh insane rises in the prices of stocks like Nvidia. And in that scenario, you

like Nvidia. And in that scenario, you know, a simple headline like earlier this year with the deep sea rumor can send the price down over 10%. Within a

week and then that could also be the catalyst for a deeper correction across the entire markets. But you know what happened after that, right? Where is

Nvidia today? This is how gold and silver can move too, right? You can see 30 plus% corrections that make a crypto investor feel like they're back at home.

And then you can watch gold and silver then roar to levels that no one thought was possible. With that being said, the

was possible. With that being said, the best way to approach the situation as a market participant is to do your best to separate your emotions from the decision making of this moment. And the best way

to do that is to actually develop a plan. And I recommend that you make a

plan. And I recommend that you make a plan and that you write it down. Writing

is scientifically proven to deactivate this part of your brain called the amydala which is responsible for fear and anxiety response. And on the other hand, it also activates this part of

your brain called the prefrontal cortex, which is responsible for decision making and rational thinking. If you are on the sidelines of the gold and silver rally,

here are a few things to consider when coming up with a plan. First, let's talk about the other precious metals briefly.

The conductivity narrative of metals being used in electronics and whatnot also applies to copper. Now, palladium

is also used in electronics and is used in gas engines and platinum is also used in the energy production life cycle. But

do not get caught trying to catch the next mover that might not ever move when it might make more sense to hop on a

winner. Make sure that if you are moving

winner. Make sure that if you are moving in the direction of any of these metals that you truly understand each of these markets individually and aren't just looking for a moonshot because you want

to play too. If you think it's worth doing a deep dive on any of these other precious metals or any other markets, let me know in the comments. Next, when

it comes to playing this game, it's not about being right, okay? This is about having zero risk of ruin and positive expectancy. No matter what you do, going

expectancy. No matter what you do, going allin is probably not the best move to make. Having a risk of ruin of zero just

make. Having a risk of ruin of zero just means that you're not going to put yourself in a position to where if anything in particular happens, you're left devastated. You're left out of the

left devastated. You're left out of the game and unable to participate. And

positive expectancy just means that when you compare your risk-to-reward and your winto- loss ratio, are you actually getting ahead? Now, another thing to

getting ahead? Now, another thing to think about is portfolio composition and position sizing because this matters, right? Do you have well-defined rules

right? Do you have well-defined rules around how much of your portfolio you're allocating to a specific asset or an asset class or market scenarios? As a

market participant, these are things that you really want to know if you're taking this seriously. Now, the next thing is timing. Anyone who's been in crypto knows that timing is everything

and it's a difference between a win or a loss. For instance, anyone who buys at

loss. For instance, anyone who buys at the top of the crypto cycle is going to cry scam, right? While the guy who's just DCAN ever since 2014, he's a

billionaire, right? So, the question is,

billionaire, right? So, the question is, is it best to just drop into the game at the literal all-time high of gold and silver? Or, you know, sometimes maybe it

silver? Or, you know, sometimes maybe it makes sense to wait for a pullback if you want to get involved or just dollar cost average. Right? If you believe in

cost average. Right? If you believe in the secular and cyclical trends, then you don't need to be allin today. And in

general, sometimes the best thing to do is no thing at all. There's also this thing that we have called action bias where we feel like we need to do something, but sometimes you missed it.

And it's okay to just sit on the sidelines because otherwise you're going to have an emotional ride and that's going to leave you way worse off than you would be if you just did nothing.

And to be clear, none of this is financial advice and I am not telling you what to do. I do not know what is coming next. I am simply here to provide

coming next. I am simply here to provide some perspective on what I see as a random guy talking to a stick in the middle of a park. And the goal is to come up with how to look at this from the perspective of building out a

framework as a market participant.

Anyways, what did I miss? What did I get wrong? And have I completely lost my

wrong? And have I completely lost my mind? Let me know in the comments down

mind? Let me know in the comments down below. I'm Keith D here to talk

below. I'm Keith D here to talk everything money and markets. And if you got anything at all from this whatsoever, be sure to like and subscribe. And if you haven't already,

subscribe. And if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe to my live show with Ben Levit. It's called Memes and Markets. We go live every Tuesday and

Markets. We go live every Tuesday and Thursday at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. And in

fact, we're doing an emergency episode for this Golden Silver Rally. So check

that out at the first link in the description down below. And until next time peace.