Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle

Is Bitcoin about to break the trend of

four-year cycles or is this bull market

finished? So, we'll get straight into it

here on the BTC growth since cycle lows

chart. And as we can see, Bitcoin has

just surpassed the elapsed time since

cycle lows of the previous Bitcoin

cycle. If we just zoom in, we can see

the 2021 2022 cycle topped after 1,059

days from the previous bare cycle low.

And what we can see this current Bitcoin

cycle has now exceeded that. If we

actually look at the average time

elapsed from the cycle lows in the two

previous cycles, we're now beyond the

average of those two previous cycles and

will in the next few days surpass that

2017 cycle length too. So is the 4year

cycle traditional model of Bitcoin price

action broken or can we maybe anticipate

a change in the dynamics of the current

market? Well, a few things we need to

acknowledge. Why did this four-year

cycle traditionally occur in Bitcoin?

Many will look to the Bitcoin having

event, which makes sense. As soon as we

see an event that decreases the

inflation rate by 50% of an asset

overnight, that's obviously going to

have a fairly notable impact on the

supply and demand economics of the

network. And as we can see at each of

these dashed lines, at each of these

having events, practically instantly in

every single instance, we saw the

Bitcoin price absolutely skyrocket.

Apart from this cycle where afterwards

we saw about five months of chopping

consolidation. Yes, we have had a couple

big explosive moves to the upside since

then, but really it's been pretty

boring. We all have to agree it's been a

pretty poor cycle so far. So, is this

because the having event has lost its

influence? If we look at the circulating

supply of Bitcoin, we can see this is

practically at 95% a vast vast majority

of all Bitcoin that will ever come in

circulation are already in circulation.

So this decreasing inflation rate

probably isn't having a monumental

influence on the Bitcoin price action

just from a supply and demand

perspective. If there's thousands of

Bitcoin every single day being mined and

minted in new blocks going onto the open

market by miners so that they can

sustain their operations, that's a lot

of Bitcoin that needs to be bought up.

But right now, it's about 450 BTC a day

which is being gobbled up just instantly

easily by just a small number of market

participants. So, is it the fact that

the harming event is no longer having

this influence on cycles or do we need

to look at something else like the

global liquidity cycle to try and gain a

perspective on where we currently are in

this BTC cycle? Has it has it finished?

Are we over? Is it in bare cycle

territory? Well, if we go over to

Trading View here, what we can see is,

and I've just kind of given away what

we'll be going on to next, but if we

look at the BTCUSD chart, and this is

the global M2 liquidity chart on a

yearon-year basis, and all I've done is

taking at a fixed interval the 4year

cycle for Bitcoin, but rather than

looking at where the harming event

occurs, this is when the global M2 money

supply on a year-on-year basis bottoms

out. And what we can see is at a very

fixed interval, this has been coinciding

with Bitcoin's bottoms almost exactly

throughout its entire history. Now, if I

draw another line on outlining the

Bitcoin harming events and when they

occur, we can see they're occurring at

almost a set period of time following

this bottoming in the global M2 money

spike year-on-year expansion. We can see

the slight discrepancy in this would be

the 2011 instance. But we can see that

the global M2 yearon-year supply

actually bottomed out alongside the h

havinging event at that period in time.

So we need to really wonder has the h

havinging event really been the driving

force of the Bitcoin four-year cycle at

any point in history or especially if we

look to 2017 and 2021 cycle. What we can

really see is these big exponential

rallies really coincided with just

liquidity being injected into the

system. Now to try and better outline

the influence of liquidity on markets,

we can look to gold. Now again, this is

just looking at the global M2 money

supply on a year-on-year basis. And what

we can see is the relationship between

the gold price appreciation or

depreciation and the rate of expansion

or contraction in global M2 liquidity is

hard to miss. It's pretty much one to

one for a vast majority of gold's price

action. And this is going back decades.

This is long before Bitcoin's inception.

We can see the influence of expanding

liquidity on markets such as gold. We

can see the recent rally may have

slightly surpassed expectations given

the fact that we've not seen a very very

rapid expansion in global MT liquidity

yet this cycle. But that's another

reason that I think Bitcoin may have

recently stalled. If we just go back to

Bitcoin Magazine Pro here, what we can

do is if we find the US dollar strength

index chart, which is in a different

section, obviously I'm a professional. I

always plan these videos out well in

advance. We can see that alongside the

Bitcoin price action having this stall,

having this period of choppy

consolidation has also been alongside

the US dollar strength index, the DXY

actually rallying to the upside. And

when we did see the Bitcoin price action

really truly rally hard to the upside,

it was alongside the US dollar strength

index massively declining. Now, of

course, there are some exceptions to

this, but this is where again rather

than just looking at the global M2 money

supply, we need to acknowledge the

market on a year-on-year basis. What we

can do is wrong chart. If we look at the

US dollar strength index, the DXY on a

year-on-year basis, we can see that the

inverse correlation between the price

action and the US dollar strength index

is again pretty much one to one. Once we

see the US dollar losing purchasing

power, this has coincided exactly with

Bitcoin's price action rapidly

increasing on a year-on-year basis. And

the same is true for the downside. Once

we see the dollar strength index on a

year-on-year basis massively increasing

and rallying, this is again coincided

with Bitcoin bare cycles. So is this

again something to do with the Bitcoin

havinging event or if we look into where

these US dollar strength index declines

really started to occur? We can see

again they coincided almost exactly with

the Bitcoin hing events. What we can see

is if we look at the US dollar strength

index on a year-on-year basis against

gold and then invert the chart again, we

can see a very very similar correlation

between the gold price action and the

underlying year-on-year rate of strength

increase or decrease in the US dollar

strength index. And if we go back over

here, what we can actually see is

recently some comments by the Fed chair

Jerome Powell indicates that the process

of federal balance sheet draw down may

be ending. Now if we just look at a

recent analysis piece I did for site

subscribers, we can actually see that

historically the potential end of

quantitative tightening not just for

Bitcoin but for all markets has

historically signified the start of

massive price appreciation. We can see

in the three previous instances that

this has occurred for Bitcoin. Again,

historically, they've coincided just

prior to a Bitcoin harming event like we

saw into 2012, like we saw in 2020. Then

this could be another accelerating

factor to potentially extend this

Bitcoin cycle. Especially if we look to

the influence it has on traditional

markets. Like I said, the S&P 500 in the

two years that followed Fed debt

expansion crossing above its four-year

average, the S&P rallied over 47% on

average, which is over five times the

average returns over any given 2-year

period. So, where is Bitcoin in the

cycle? Well, it depends on where you

believe the traditional cycle is. If we

look at the correlation between Bitcoin

and the S&P 500, they're incredibly

highly correlated. And if we just go

back to Trading Vap one last time, what

we can see, even though recently we have

seen a little bit of a rally in the US

dollar strength index, we're now

approaching a turning point, a key level

in the US dollar strength index that has

historically resulted in price either

appreciating like it has on multiple

occasions when it bounced from this

point or again on multiple different

instances throughout the past decade

resulting in a massive continued decline

in the US dollar strength index. So I

think this Bitcoin cycle rather than the

traditional 4-year basis which may have

been more heavily influenced by the

Bitcoin havinging event rather than just

looking at the global M2 money supply

and how much is it's expanding. If we

look at the yearon-year rate of

acceleration or deceleration and

expansion or contraction in global M2

which is heavily influenced by the

underlying year-on-year strength in the

US dollar strength index that gives us a

better understanding on where the next

few weeks could go for Bitcoin. And as

we can see, this is now starting to

rapidly decline. And like I showed you

on the gold chart, once we actually

invert this to see the inverse

correlation on Bitcoin's price, then we

may still have plenty of room to go in

this BTC cycle. So just to summarize, we

have now surpassed the previous two

Bitcoin cycles in terms of elast time

since the previous cycle low, leaving

many to wonder if BTC has topped and if

the 4-year cycle is pointing towards an

imminent bare market. And of course, we

have to acknowledge that this is

definitely a possibility. The Bitcoin

price could have already topped. We do

need to acknowledge that the probability

of this being true does not outweigh the

likelihood that this bull market still

has upside potential remaining here. We

practically just covered macro charts.

But if we look at the onchain

indicators derivatives technical

factors, everything is looking still

strong for the Bitcoin price action even

though we have had this recent

retracement. And like we could see the

traditional 4-year cycle was almost

certainly heavily influenced by the

Bitcoin havinging event. We also have to

acknowledge that it was also and even

maybe more so influenced by the

expansion or contraction in the

yearon-year global liquidity cycle or

debasement cycle. I've seen many people

pointed towards the fact that we

shouldn't be referring to this as a

liquidity cycle, but the fact that our

fiat currencies are just losing

purchasing power. the debasement of our

peg to actually measure the valuation of

assets is diminishing so rapidly. And if

the same is to be true this time around,

then there's definitely a good chance

that this cycle is not done yet. If you

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industry price. and let me know what

your thoughts are on where we are in

this Bitcoin cycle. Do you think that

this 4year cycle chart is something that

we need to be paying attention to and

that potentially we've already seen the

Bitcoin price action peak or do you

think that now we've almost diverged

away from the traditional four-year

cycle and a more closely following the

business and liquidity and debasement

cycle that I'm kind of leaning more

towards. I do still think we will have a

parabolic move for Bitcoin just given

the fact that we've already had a number

of big explosive moves to the upside in

this cycle so far. So I'm not

necessarily saying that this cycle is

going to extend way into 2026. My base

case is still a topping in late this

year, maybe early next year. But every

single day that we see more and more

consolidation in Bitcoin and more

liquidity being injected into the system

and more debasement by central banks and

governments of their fiat currencies

gives me more indication, more

likelihood I think that this cycle may

extend a little bit further than we

initially anticipated. But like I always

say, it's much better to react than

predict. As always, thank you all very

much for watching. Leave your comments

below and on social media. I look

forward to reading and replying to them.

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