Why 2026 Might Not Be the Bull Market Everyone Expects w/ Julio Moreno

And so it it always, you know, comes down. It deviates a lot to the upside in

down. It deviates a lot to the upside in the bull market and then when there's a bare market, that should be like the I would say maybe the base expectation for

a bottom for for a price bottom. What's

up everybody? It's LG Ducet here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show where the charts are red, the vibes are green, and my caffeine budget is officially a macro indicator.

Today is December 23rd, but we are recording this in advance so that we can take a small break for Christmas. Yes,

that's right. They are finally letting me out of the dungeon to see my family for the holidays, but only for just a little bit. Joining me today is one of

little bit. Joining me today is one of our most popular guests on Milk Road from the last few months and one of the best analysts in the space. Julio Moreno

is on to talk about why we are in fact already in a bear and give his 2026 predictions for when and potentially how we could be exiting that. Today's

episode is brought to you by Reserved ETFs, the onchain equivalent of ETFs.

Chain Link links web 3 to Wall Street and bridge send stable coin payments instantly. Simple, global, frictionfree.

instantly. Simple, global, frictionfree.

Let's get him on here. What is going on, man? Welcome back to the show and and

man? Welcome back to the show and and happy holidays in advance.

>> Yeah, thank you. Thank you, LG. Thank

you for inviting me again. And yeah,

happy holidays to everyone.

>> That's the spirit. Um, Julio, a lot has happened this year and we're we're going to talk a lot about 2026 on this show, but I wanted to ask you in 2025, this is something I think, you know, once we actually look back on the last 12

months, so much has happened, right? If

you could think that even the Trump inauguration was this year, that feels like so long ago. What did you change your mind about when it comes to crypto

this year in 2025? I would say that for for Bitcoin the treasury companies I learned maybe that not every treasury

companies uh worth invest investing in uh there's um different uh things that

they're doing. So um I I maybe initially

they're doing. So um I I maybe initially would thought that it will be like um let's say like a commodity like every

treasury company is um more or less the same and then and and you could invest in like like every every treasury company and and if Bitcoin goes up then

they all will go up their stock price but then there's a lot of details of how they are operating and then how they are

raising capital. Uh and so I I I guess

raising capital. Uh and so I I I guess um I learned that you need to do like a more due diligence on that and that they are really risky and and we saw that

because you know most of them their stock price just plummeted right completely. Um

completely. Um >> are you talking about specifically Micro Strategy or you just or you mean everybody else all the ETH DATs as well?

Um I mean I'm talking about the Bitcoin Treasury companies which I follow more than the other that uh but no uh other than Micro Strategy I'm referring more

to the other ones that came this year that started buying Bitcoin this year and uh some of them uh you know the the way that they raised capital was uh not

really good for stockholders uh and for the people buying you know the retail uh market buying those stocks and you can see that on the price, right? And so

yeah, I would say that that that really uh surprised me. I would summarize it as um we all thought that these companies were going to be like a positive for

Bitcoin, but maybe they were like a negative this year for Bitcoin. I would

say that that was the topic that uh most mostly surprised me this year.

>> What would you say has been worse for Bitcoin? Um, and I guess they're they're

Bitcoin? Um, and I guess they're they're hard to compare because they they didn't exactly happen at the same time. But

what what has been worse? The effect of like a more volatile macro environment, right, with with tariffs and even whatever is happening now that everyone's kind of unsure and that's what we're going to discuss now, or this

kind of practice of these treasuries buying up Bitcoin and people buying their stock prices, but then then having clearly what you're saying kind of a compound effect on the price. Uh I would say that I mean for the price of Bitcoin

is or for the performance of course the the macro the tariffs uh were uh worst and you can see that on like on April that we had our first like really

a big price correction of the year and and everything when we saw that every every indicator really went to ne neg like bearish really bearish right so

yeah for for Bitcoin I would say like for the price is more the macro and the tariffs and uh first of all because initially we we didn't expect that and

the market didn't expect that like uh the tariffs and then it kind of like eased. Uh but yeah, but for I I would

eased. Uh but yeah, but for I I would say like for maybe for the retail people, a lot of people that thought that you could outperform Bitcoin just

buying a treasury company because you know because of the example that we have with Micro Strategy, which it actually overperformed bit Bitcoin over the years

in a bull market. I think a lot of people bought into that but in with other treasury companies and and then they really got uh really hurt about that because of that performance. So is

is it that difference you know the price or the you know the people uh the investors uh so I would say for for for the retail really was uh the treasury companies.

>> This is the biggest year ahead for crypto AI and the macro but the real moves aren't in predictions. Join Milk

Road Pro today to see our live portfolio, buy sell signals, and the AI investing portfolio which launches in January. The link is below. Would you

January. The link is below. Would you

say from a retail perspective that 2025 was a positive sentiment year or a negative sentiment year for crypto? And

maybe once we look back several years from now, how will we see 2025 from a a sentiment standpoint?

>> I think it was really volatile. That

that's what I would uh describe it. uh

volatile. Uh we went from you know euphoria uh well late last year because of the Trump presidential election and then

when the ignoration and all the expectations about the you know strategic Bitcoin reserve. So we were

really um euphoric and then the tariffs brought us down uh and and so but then you know starting Q4 we were at still at

a fresh all-time high sooria again and now everything's like uh the sentiment I think is really bearish. So it's it's it's a volatile really volatile year.

>> So negative or positive if you have to give one word is volatile volatility bad? Uh well depends like uh there's

bad? Uh well depends like uh there's volat volatility uh to the upside and to the downside but I if I had to choose I would say like uh you know sentiment it's negative

>> negative. Yeah. Okay. All right. That

>> negative. Yeah. Okay. All right. That

yeah that's fair. I I I wouldn't disagree as somebody who's been you know pretty plugged in to uh to analysts and also to to how people feel. If you had

to take one like metric or chart that you think now was the most important one of 2025, what would that have been or what would that be?

>> I, you know, tend to rely more on like demand metrics.

uh I want to be um monitoring more like is is there is the demand growing for for Bitcoin or for digital assets like uh then I would

say that those that chart uh that I use a lot is called apparent demand is is it is monitoring that like uh the growth in

demand uh so for it's the is the the thing that I pay attention the most like demand a lot of people will say I don't

know maybe how long-term holders are selling or not or you know more like a supply side but I I I I tend to to to go

more with the demand side uh you know getting get into to monitor that if if there's like fresh demand coming into the market and so I will I will use that

I use that a lot and and also the other one is which is also like demand but more indirectly is stable coin growth the market cap if it's you know there's

this sign of more liquidity coming into the market uh those two I would say >> hasn't the stable coin market cap gone up so much this year

>> yeah but it's for me it's not about like the level but the growth the change in that >> so you could be you know and this also happened a lot with the treasury

companies the headline was always um there's um a record amount of Bitcoin held by treasury companies, right? But

if you see the change, it was slowing down, slowing down, slowing down. So the

change is more important than the level when you're analyzing. And so the the growth the growth uh that's more important. Most of the indicators for

important. Most of the indicators for demand are the change in the in the in the metric, not the metric itself. Yeah.

Has has there been any demand that's been missing this year that you expected if that's like a big metric for you?

>> Uh what do you mean? Uh

>> like you're saying that demand is is something that you that you think is so important for >> crypto. Has there did you expect more

>> crypto. Has there did you expect more demand this year from any particular sector from like the institutional bid or from retail or from anywhere else?

Well, I would say that from the treasury companies, I think that it was really, you know, initially it grew a lot, but it it didn't last like there was just a few months when they were announcing

like the new treasury companies and they were buying like they made maybe one or two buys like and it got a lot of um you know the headlines but it went away

really really quickly. Uh so they they right now basically no one's buying. So

uh [clears throat] that's that's that's what you know it ended it ended really fast.

>> Yeah. [laughter] And I can see that on the chart that we're going to look at in one minute which I promise you guys we are going to get to 2026 analysis from Julio in just one second. But I have one

last 2025 question for you Julio as we look back on the year. What is something that everybody got wrong this year? And you

can't say bullish Q4 because that's the most everybody said bullish Q4 other than bullish bullish Q4 that every we all know we were wrong but what is something that you think everybody every

like the majority was wrong about this year and the majority in crypto is often wrong about a lot of things but what is something that definitely universally everybody was definitely wrong about

>> um yeah the uh treasury companies overperforming the the underlying right >> uh that's that's what I what I think um

yeah most of us thought that that was the norm right with in a bull market with with strategy that we we we experienced that with strategy during a bull market right and so we thought I

think a lot of people thought that it was going to be the same for these new uh uh treasury companies and obviously we uh we were wrong on that >> were wrong [laughter]

unfortunately man okay well let's get to some of your uh 2026 six predictions and you I mean I love this when people do this and come on the show. You prepared

a wonderful deck for us to look at. Here

we go. Let's take a look at this beautiful thing. So, okay. So, I think

beautiful thing. So, okay. So, I think this is the first chart on here and I hate to read the headline uh but it says bare market bottom would be around 56k realized price. Julio, tell us about

realized price. Julio, tell us about this uh relatively scary headline for this chart. Yeah. So first I mean we

this chart. Yeah. So first I mean we have to to uh just acknowledge right that um we are in a bird market is it it

started like a a month ago I would say um officially and so that >> what made it official sorry what what made it official Julio in your eyes what made what made the bare market official?

>> I have a a um a bunch of metrics that I um put in a single indicator. we call it the bull score index >> and it most of those went like in into

the bearish territory really um really fast in early November but then also I mean for for me like the the last confirmation it's a technical indicator

which is price going below its one-year moving average uh that's like the technical indicator that I I would say

confirm this right so coming from that Okay, we are in a bare market. Well, we

should expect for the price to behave in in a bare market and and just this is just like historically uh what happened

in previous bare market. You see price coming down to what is called the realized price which is basically the average price at at at which the the

holders of Bitcoin has uh purchased their Bitcoin, right? uh we we measure this onchain and so it it always you know comes down it deviates a lot to the

upside in the bull market and then when there's a bare market that should be like the I would say maybe the base expectation for a bottom for for a price

bottom dur during a bare market so that's why you know right now that that that um realized price is at 56k

uh so that will be uh my bottom uh uh price for for expected bottom. Um this

could change because the that indicator changes a little bit every day. So, but

you know 56 60 maybe you know around that that area. Um yeah that's the expectation for a bare market uh price

bottom. uh you know if you want to see

bottom. uh you know if you want to see it in a positive way from the all-time high the draw down is really not as high

as we have had in previous bird markets when we have had draw downs of 60 uh no 70% 80% this will be just like a 55%

from the alltime high so [laughter] >> it doesn't feel that way man it doesn't feel that way I'll tell you that somehow yeah it doesn't feel >> put some uh sugar coating there. But

[laughter] yeah, >> that's the only thing. There's there's

nothing else in the plate, Julio. It's

just the sugar. There's nothing left.

[laughter] >> Okay. So, and you do you have like a

>> Okay. So, and you do you have like a timeline for this? Like do you do you think we are guaranteed to go down to this level or do you think that this is a potential?

>> Historically, I will have to say like based on historical data, uh this is like a I mean this is most likely scenario, right? from a from a

scenario, right? from a from a historical standpoint but there's there's also um other other price um

supports there like a 70k uh which is also important um so but yeah but but between that I would say uh and and 50 56 really the realized price

has been the more most reliable price bottom uh indicator for for Bitcoin. Do

you think this would happen soon or would it take like all of 2026 to play out?

>> Historically, it has taken you know a year basically a year to get there. Uh

but you know what I see different um from this bare market compared to others like for example 2022 there was a lot of

companies blowing out of right like uh we had a lot of these episodes where you know the Terral Luna and then the this

uh you know Celsius 3AC FDX like there was a lot of that right now hopefully I mean we don't see that because you know there's more uh I would say real rel

real relability in the companies and and the projects. So maybe we don't get to

the projects. So maybe we don't get to to that because there's not much um you know downside from that perspective in uh like a you know an exchange blowing

off right so [clears throat] >> maybe maybe uh hopefully we don't have to to to go there but I mean just from the data perspective that's the you know the base scenario.

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>> Got it. Okay, let's let's let's move on.

Also, a bare market chart. The bare

market draw down would be the smallest.

Oh, this is what you were discussing about we would be a 55% pullback, right?

>> 55%. And yeah, you can see there, you know, actually, you know, the the draw downs getting less intense, right? Like

uh uh yeah, lower uh smaller smaller draw downs. Uh we we experienced 90%,

draw downs. Uh we we experienced 90%, and then 80 70 uh 60%, and now now we will be around like yeah 55%. So

>> why wouldn't we go down 80% then? Cuz if

most of these like what you're showing me is that you know 2012 2016 2019 and 2022

23ish you're almost you know you're at a 90 80 and like 75% >> pullback. Why wouldn't that happen this

>> pullback. Why wouldn't that happen this time?

>> Well, one for one is that we didn't have like a really a blowoff top right this this in this bull market. So the the

base not the base but the initial price at which you are comparing this draw down is not that high like an in other bull markets we had like that blow off

top. Uh but also I mean structurally

top. Uh but also I mean structurally um it makes sense because you know talking about demand again there are

other type of players now that they buy more you know periodically right uh in in previous bare markets the demand was

basically you know contracting like really really uh really really high contraction right and so that I would say that that is structurally like we now have like more like

institutionals or ETFs that don't don't sell, you know, a lot and also there's some some buying there. So that's what I would expect that >> that makes sense. Yeah, there's more of

an institutionalbased bid. So there's

more people willing to pick this up on the way down than in the past where that that bid didn't exist once there was a clear bare market. Right. Okay, that

makes sense.

>> Exactly. Yeah. But we have discussed about this like the you know the the demand. This is one of the indicators

demand. This is one of the indicators that I told you like demand is really important to be monitoring, right? So,

this is apparent demand and in a on a year-over-year uh growth and and so what what we're seeing this is that, you know, we had that expansion that took us

to through the bull market, you know, from 2023 to now. But what we've seen lately is that that expansion has really

slowed down and is is uh below the trend of growth. And so that is an indication

of growth. And so that is an indication that you know Bitcoin bull markets tend

to um be you know uh or or develop in in in these waves of demand growth right so there's every every bull market is because there's there's more adoption or

there's there's a new wave of capital coming right or new wave of players coming and that I mean initially you see that that explosion in the demand wave

and that you can see there um since 2023 uh 2024. Um so that that is the you know

uh 2024. Um so that that is the you know the wave initially is really strong and that what takes us to the new highs but then just it's normal that it slows down

right so uh you know the amount of capital or new uh adopters that comes to the market it just slows down right and so there's naturally you know a decline

there and that's what takes us initially into into a bare market or uh so that that has happened so I think that we saw

that we saw basically all of this demand wave. Uh we have seen it and now is the

wave. Uh we have seen it and now is the the face of slowdown and maybe like at the contraction like you we saw in 2022 and and the other the other cycles is

the same and and a lot of people are saying like the four like the four-ear cycle is is dead, right? like we

shouldn't have like a like a proper bare market like in the in the previous cycles because the halin cycles, right?

Because the halin is not as important as it was uh initially in in Bitcoin. Um

but I mean that's that's correct but I don't see the cycles like like that from from beginning from the haling now is is the is the demand it's just the demand

uh waves you know and so that that tends to you know to slow down and and the demand growth um just becomes uh negative so starts stops growing so

that's what it takes us to the bur cycle this is something that is normally in markets, right? Uh so it's not about

markets, right? Uh so it's not about like the halbine or other um things specific to Bitcoin, but more about the demand and the adoption way.

>> So based on this demand chart, >> Mhm.

>> it peaks this cycle, if we're still calling it a cycle, like right at the end of 2024, early 2025, >> right? Um would you call that the top

>> right? Um would you call that the top despite that not being the top of the price for Bitcoin?

>> Uh no, no, no. the top is when I say the top is the price right uh the demand can still slow down but it's growing above

the trend right uh but now it's really I mean the growth is the the lowest since 2024 uh and then it it is it is below trend

and that is what it really takes you to the bare market because it's just below trend and it starts to decline and then uh starts to contract uh Right. So

that's that's uh yeah cycles will be you know these demand waves uh uh uh as long as it's growing above trend is okay but it has now uh come below trend.

>> Thanks for explaining. Okay this next one and again this was supposed to be the start of the presentation um that we had broken this looks like we broke through the 368

>> exactly one year moving average. So

that's that's the confirmation. Um

actually before that and this is I mean it has applied for this cycle and also the previous ones before that onchain

indicators start to become like bearish uh but for me like the confirmation is this one uh like the I call it it's like

my technical indicator um it's it's the price really uh crossing uh the one-year moving average to the to the downside.

side. Uh and you can see like uh in this bull market here the price has actually um experienced corrections and touch

that that level right uh two times before before this one this last one >> and it was in 2024 and August when we had that sell off that was related to

the um gen car trade. Um so we had a like a really big correction but you know the price went exactly to the three uh one year moving average and then that

was like a support and okay we were fine there and then the other one was on April this year. This is this has to do with the correction with the tariff uh

the Trump tariffs um when we're they were initially um uh announced and you can see there that is was the same like the price corrected and touched that uh

one-year moving average level and that was a a support right but now we we are now below that and so that is a

confirmation for me that uh we we are in a in in we enter it a a bare market and you can see that in 2022 it happened like like it's uh really similar. First

it was a a support and then once it comes below that the price comes below that now it's a resistance and that was the you know also the confirmation of

the previous cycle uh starting a bare market. So that's why uh I think it's

market. So that's why uh I think it's really really important to to to monitor that level and right now we're below still below that level right now is

around $102,000.

So that's the level that is now like the the resistance for price.

>> And do you think we could come back to it before going lower? Because even in this 2022 example, right, you have it we're cross below it back above then below it almost for good for half for a

couple months, half the year and then come back and test it in >> maybe in April 2022 before then the real drop. Right. So you think that that

drop. Right. So you think that that could happen here?

>> Yes. I mean I think that's a a probability a high probability. Um it's

it's a even in bare markets there are rallies right like in like the one you said in 2022 was from January to March

2022 this is a like uh it was like almost a I think like a 40 50% rally like in those like three months. So I I

and I remember that you know a 50% rally is is quite high right? Um so a lot of people were thinking oh no we're going higher we're going higher right I mean I

was also thinking that [snorts] uh but [laughter] but uh you know that we went to that level and that became you know the resistance for price the

technical resistance but all the indicators were were still saying we're in a bare market right so but yeah that's uh I think that's a possibility for sure

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Okay. And I think this we're at the final charts here. Oh. Oh, and comparing to the rest of the macro ecosystem, the rest of the economy. Let's go.

>> Yeah. Yeah. That's just to show like kind of indirectly showing the demand for Bitcoin, right? And and then I'm comparing there here with the gold um

with also, you know, the max 7 um stocks. And then one one of theme that I

stocks. And then one one of theme that I think or one topic that really picked up this year was quantum computing and how

it can be you know a threat to Bitcoin.

So I'm also comparing that to a quantum computing ETF and and then you can see that you know maybe those three yeah

asset classes uh they they they sucked out some capital from Bitcoin right and you can see that you know for for most of the year Bitcoin

outperformed this um you know the max 7 or or the quantum uh but since October you know Bitcoin has been come coming down really sharp

sharply and those others have actually you know performed uh quite well. So so

I think that that's also you know a reason people say and and I agree that you know now Bitcoin is like a it's like a macro asset right. So but if you are a

macro asset then you are also now competing for capital with all these other other asset classes >> all the other macro assets. That's

right. Yeah. [laughter]

>> Yeah. I think we've uh we've definitely covered this many times on the show and on the Milk Road Macro podcast where you can hear definitely hear a lot more about this.

>> All righty. And okay, here we go. This

is this is what we want, man. What would

be a growth catalyst for a 2026 bull market? This is this is the slide I've

market? This is this is the slide I've been waiting for the whole presentation.

>> Yeah. So, yeah, here >> and the first thing you wrote is a question mark. Come on, man. [laughter]

question mark. Come on, man. [laughter]

The first thing on here is just a question mark.

>> Yeah, that's for people to answer, you know. [laughter]

know. [laughter] >> That's what you're here to answer.

That's fair to tell us.

>> We had we had this uh you know in 2024 2025 we had some really you know clear catalyst right like the ETF launch uh then Trump presidential election and and

the expectations that it uh brought to to the crypto space. uh some good like regulation clarity in the US uh the

adoption of digital assets uh for uh in in the US for for traditional finance and then this this year also like initially the Bitcoin treasury company

the demand from from these companies and and al of course Micro Strategy still like buying initially like a lot of Bitcoin so that those were the catalyst

for 2024 2025 I mean I think we're in a bare market and going lower and that's what that's why I put a question mark like okay if people say that 2026 is you

know the four-ear cycle is dead but okay what's the catalyst right and and a lot of people are saying well it's the Fed um you know they ended uh quantitative

tightening uh they're going to start uh like a uh buying right uh providing more liquidity but you know okay that's that's Right. But it's not going to be

that's Right. But it's not going to be like uh the amount of liquidity that they provide in you know in 2020 2021

right it's it's just uh really really um not that at those levels right and then a lot of the other catalyst is like okay you know there's more adoption for

Bitcoin you know uh governments or sovereign wealth funds and and if that's true but you know we have to keep in mind that those type of um buyers, they

don't buy like uh too often. They they

do like a purchase and then there's not purchases in you know in a period of time like the treasury companies they they bought some but they then they stop

buying and so they're not like really um buying every day in the market and and pushing the prices um up. Uh so that's why I you know I don't think that

there's um like a lot of demand from that compared to how you know how big is the market how much volume is on exchanges right so so yeah and and then

again what we uh talked about in the the previous slide like the capital rotated to maybe AI quantum the max 7 you know

so yeah I mean for me yeah 2026 is a question mark in terms of the catalyst.

So that's why I put that um so maybe yeah other people have um you know another catalyst but I mean I don't know >> it's I think it's a fair assumption man

and that's why we wanted you back on the show to to give the um the honest the honest approach from your perspective [laughter] of of how that could go. Well

Julio I mean this has been a fantastic presentation man. Thank you so much for

presentation man. Thank you so much for for your insight. One thing we're going to do now, which we're doing at the end of every single one of these prediction series shows, is we're going to do a rapid fire section.

>> And you just answer like it's like a one-word answer. Okay. We don't need the

one-word answer. Okay. We don't need the explanation. We just want to know just

explanation. We just want to know just straight up. Just the first thing that

straight up. Just the first thing that comes to mind. Okay. Are you ready?

>> All right. Yep. [clears throat]

>> Okay. What will be the Bitcoin low in 2026?

>> 60. 60K.

>> 60K. What will be the Bitcoin high in 2026?

I'm going to uh 100 102.

>> 102. Right on. Right on your lines there. Do you do you care about Ethereum

there. Do you do you care about Ethereum or any other assets or should I skip those?

>> Um yeah, you can you can ask about that also.

>> Same thing. Ethereum low in 2026.

>> Ethereum low uh 2000.

>> Wow. Ethereum high in 2026.

>> Ethereum high uh 3500.

[laughter] >> Oh god. It's terrible. Okay. One asset

that everyone will wish they held in 2026.

>> Cash. [laughter]

>> Bare market. Cash. Cash is king in B market.

>> That's it. Okay. And give us one wildcard prediction. Like forget the

wildcard prediction. Like forget the charts and everything. Give us like a total the craziest thing that could happen this year.

>> Craziest thing >> just and it's something it's has 0% chance of it happening. But what's like the craziest thing that could happen?

>> A quantum computer breaking Bitcoin.

That would be like a [laughter] >> spoken spoken like a guy who just gave a presentation about the bare market for sure. [laughter]

sure. [laughter] Right on. Well, Julio, man, thank you so

Right on. Well, Julio, man, thank you so much for coming on. Um, happy holidays.

Have a wonderful have a wonderful uh rest of the holiday season and same to all our listeners and I'm sure we'll see you again in the new year.

>> Yep. Thank you. Thanks uh again for the invitation.

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