Why Hard Work Doesn’t Guarantee Success - Prof Jiang Xueqin

Today we look at the question of success. The question is: who succeeds, and why?

We’ve done a lot of research, and we’ve discovered that people who succeed do so for certain reasons.

There is a Colombian psychologist named Walter Mischel, and he devised a very famous experiment called the Marshmallow Test.

In the Marshmallow Test, it’s very simple. Imagine a room, and I invite a four-year-old or a five-year-old to come into this room. I have a conversation with him or her. I ask,

“How’s your mother? What do you like to do?” It’s a very good conversation. Then suddenly

I get up and say, “I’m really sorry, but I need to go across the hallway for another meeting. I’ll be back. Just wait for me. And I’ll make you a deal. Here’s a marshmallow.

meeting. I’ll be back. Just wait for me. And I’ll make you a deal. Here’s a marshmallow.

I’m going to put a marshmallow in front of you, and you can have it right now.

If I come back and the marshmallow is still there, I’ll give you two marshmallows.”

Walter Mischel then leaves the room, and through a see-through mirror he watches the students struggle to contain themselves, because they obviously want two marshmallows. Some students can resist the temptation to eat the first marshmallow,

two marshmallows. Some students can resist the temptation to eat the first marshmallow, while others cannot. Mischel spends 50 years tracking these children.

What he discovers is this: the students who resist the temptation and get the second marshmallow are much more likely to do better in school. They have higher test scores. They have better careers. Their careers are more stable. They get

test scores. They have better careers. Their careers are more stable. They get

promoted more often. They are more likely to find stable relationships. They avoid jail, drugs, and alcohol. They are leaner, fitter, live longer, and even have better teeth. Those

who cannot resist and eat the first marshmallow right away experience the opposite outcomes.

For Walter Mischel, success means delayed gratification.

All this means that people who succeed are capable of long-term planning.

To succeed today, you make sacrifices. If my friends are playing outside and I need to do my homework, I stay home and do my homework. This is long-term planning, what he calls

delayed gratification. A simpler way of saying this is self-control, or emotional regulation.

delayed gratification. A simpler way of saying this is self-control, or emotional regulation.

You’re able to keep your emotions in check. If you’re angry, you’re able to calm yourself down.

This is why schools focus on emotional regulation and teaching students how to control their emotions and plan long term. That’s one theory of success.

Another theory of success comes from a psychologist named Carol Dweck at Stanford University. She wrote a book called Mindset.

She argues that those who succeed in life have a growth mindset, and those who fail have a fixed mindset.

The idea is resilience. People with a growth mindset, when they fail, say to themselves, “This is an opportunity to learn. I’ll think about what I did wrong

and do better next time.” People with a fixed mindset cannot accept failure.

They believe they’re incapable of improving, so they give up.

Those with a growth mindset try harder after failure. Those with a fixed mindset stop trying.

The third idea of success comes from K. Anders Ericsson, a Swedish psychologist.

He wanted to know why certain people succeed as musicians or athletes, and he developed the idea of deliberate practice.

What he found is that people who want to become athletes or musicians practice every day. But those who succeed practice strategically. People who

only work hard just put in long hours. People who work strategically have a plan. They ask:

What are my goals? How can I achieve them? How can I improve my plan?

They are examining their own practices and they are trying to figure out where their weaknesses are, where they can improve and set a plan on how to improve.

And then they follow this plan And if this plan helps them improve, they seek new plans. But if the plan doesn't really work, they change their plan as well.

SO this is the idea of "Self Reflection" or "Self Assessment" Constantly thinking about how you are as a student and figuring out how to improve your own learning

strategies. Ericsson discovered is that if you do this, you will succeed at anything.

strategies. Ericsson discovered is that if you do this, you will succeed at anything.

And this is true The reason why we know its true is There are two American Psychologist, named Dunning and Kruger, who discovered the "Dunning–Kruger Effect."

"Dunning–Kruger Effect." And so what they did was this. They ran an experiment with 500 students in their Psychology class, first-year university. They made every student take an I.Q test.

And then after they took the I.Q test, they asked each student, "How do you think you did on the I.Q test? Do you place in the top 5%? or the bottom 5%?"

And it turns out that no one got the ranking correct. So those who were at the top 5% in terms of I.Q, thought they were maybe in the top 20%, because for them it was easy and so assume it was easy for every one as well.

But what was dramatic is that. Those who scored the lowest thought they were average. And so the worst 5% in the class thought they were in the top 50%.

were average. And so the worst 5% in the class thought they were in the top 50%.

Or just average And the reason why is, those people are stupid and lack the capacity to know they are stupid. So what Dunning–Kruger discovered is that, the hardest part of being a student is accurately assessing yourself properly, to know exactly where you stand

and how to improve. Those who are stupid are often the most confident in the world.

That is what is called the "Dunning–Kruger Effect."

This helps explain why the world is the way it is, because all the people in power are stupid. They don't know they are stupid, but they are confident and they do stupid things.

stupid. They don't know they are stupid, but they are confident and they do stupid things.

Like Donald Trump So now we have these three theories of success.

We have Self-Control, we have Resilience, and we have Self-Assessment.

And so as educators at schools, we can do is devise strategies and curriculum to help students all succeed.

The problem is that when we actually try this, it doesn’t work.

If you take a bad student and you teach Him self-control, resilience, and self-assessment, the student doesn’t actually get better.

The reason why is? And this is a very important idea for you guys to remember is that correlation does not equal causation.

You guys need to remember this.

Just because things are correlated does not mean they one cause each other.

So i will give you an example. We know that successful people get up early in the morning.

They get up at about 4 o'clock in the morning. But just because you wake up by 4 o'clock in the morning, does not mean you will succeed.

Just because you work hard, just because you are resilient, just because you have growth mindset, does not mean you will succeed.

But if you are successful, you will get up early in the morning because you are more motivated. If you are successful in life, you will have more self control, you will have more resilience, you will be more humble.

Does that make sense?

So if you are rich, guess what happens? You become successful And therefore, you will have growth mindset, self-control, deliberate practice. Does that make sense?

deliberate practice. Does that make sense?

But just because you have growth mindset and deliberate practice and resilience, does not mean you will succeed.

So the question for us is why does this happen? And ultimately, who succeeds.

So we know for a fact that rich people are much more likely to succeed than poor people.

And in fact, what we know from macroeconomic studies is that school doesn't really matter.

Doesn't matter how well you do in school. If your parents are rich, you'll be successful in life. If your parents are poor, you will not be successful in life. Okay. So,

in life. If your parents are poor, you will not be successful in life. Okay. So,

what's the difference? Okay. So, now let's look at parenting strategies between rich and poor. Okay.

So there are lots of differences but let's focus on three major differences. The first

major difference is that rich parents speak to their kids more than poor parents. Okay.

High vocabulary Low vocabulary.

When rich parents speak to the kids, rich parents will use high vocabulary, longer sentences. Poor parents will just be no, yes, go away. Another major difference is in attitude.

sentences. Poor parents will just be no, yes, go away. Another major difference is in attitude.

So rich parents use a friendly attitude and poor parents use an authoritarian or command attitude.

So for example, if you are a rich kid and you go and touch a stove stove, okay, and you burn your hand, the rich parent will say, "Listen, you made a mistake. Don't worry about it. Let me explain to you why touching a fire is bad for you because you'll burn yourself and you

it. Let me explain to you why touching a fire is bad for you because you'll burn yourself and you might have to go to doctor and we will feel pain if you hurt yourself. Okay? So the rich parent will spend a lot of time explaining to the child why this is wrong and how not to do it again.

The poor parent is like don't you ever do that again or I'll beat the crap out of you. Don't

do that. Pretty simple. But as you can you can understand the rich kid will understand that the world is safe and that he is respected in this world. Whereas the poor child will think that

the world is scary and he or she must be afraid of adults. And this carries on into school, right?

Because as a rich kid, you go into school and you think that my teacher is my friend. So you smile at the teacher and you hug the teacher and the teacher smiles back and now you're friends, right?

But if you're a poor kid and you see the teacher, you don't you're afraid to look at the teacher.

You don't smile. You're stressed. And the teacher thinks that you might be a problem child. So the

problem with this is that yes, being authoritarian is effective, but it creates stress in the family.

It makes the child feel unsafe. And this leads to our the third major difference between rich parents and poor parents. Rich parents offer stability. Poor parents can only offer volatility. This is a very simple idea. Rich parents have money

so they can afford to keep promises. So I'm rich parent. And I say to my child, okay, next week we'll go to Thailand for vacation. Guess what? Next week you go, you guys go to Thailand for vacation. But if you're a poor parent, money is always an issue.

So it's hard for you to keep promises, right? So it's like, next week we'll go to McDonald's for lunch, but your paycheck is not enough. So you're like, "Sorry, we can't go anymore."

And now because of these different parenting styles, we understand why um rich kids behave different from poor kids, right? So let's look at let's look at the idea idea of self-control,

Self-control. What is the marshmallow test? Marshmallow test is not a test of self-control.

Self-control. What is the marshmallow test? Marshmallow test is not a test of self-control.

It's a test of your trust in others. Right? If you believe that the teacher who goes outside, if you believe that he or she comes back and will keep his or her promise, then you will not eat that marshmallow. But if you think that this teacher is lying to me, then you're going to eat that marshmallow.

So it's not really about self-control. It's about your belief and trust in authority figures. So,

if you're rich, you have stability. But if you're poor, you lack stability. So,

you're actually better off eating that marshmallow rather than waiting for that second marshmallow because guess what? Most of the time, you will not get that second marshmallow. Okay? Do you

do you understand? So, it's not that poor kids are stupid. Poor kids are rational and they're responding to the circumstances that they live in. Okay? and resilience, right? Well,

the idea of resilience is that you believe that the world will help you, right? So, if you're rich and you believe that everyone helps you, you can be resilient because if you fail, someone

will help you get up. If you're poor, if you fail, that probably tells you you should be doing this.

Okay, you probably won't succeed doing this. So, you don't have you don't have much confidence in others. Okay, and the idea of self assessment, right? Looking inward. Well,

if you're a poor child who lives under a lot of stress, it's hard for you to be self-reflective because if you look back at yourself, all you think about is your pain and your stress. Okay.

So from these different parenting strategies, we can now explain why different students behave the way they do. This of course may lead you to think, okay, well then rather than construct

our schools around self-control, resilience, and self-reflection, we should construct our schools around better parenting skills. Which means that, "let's construct schools where kids are exposed to a lot of vocabulary, where teachers are friendly and where there's a lot of stability."

And we've tried this and it's more effective but it doesn't really work either. Why? Because the

kids come in too late. A lot of their worldview is already established. Then you're like, "Okay, well then let's change how parents behave." And when you do that, what you recognize is that nope, you can't change how they behave either. Okay? So no matter what you do, you end up with massive

differences between the poor and the rich. The rich stay rich and the poor stay poor.