Why Killing Khamenei Was a Bad Idea - Prof. Jiang Xueqin

I hope everyone had a nice break and welcome back to the end of the world.

So, as you know, World War II has started. United States and Israel have

started. United States and Israel have start to attack Iran and we are now in the fourth day of this

war. And we can expect this war to last

war. And we can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly also for many years. But I promise you that after this

years. But I promise you that after this war is done, the world will never be the same again. So what what we will do

same again. So what what we will do these next few weeks is use game theory and understand and analyze the geopolitical situation.

And so I'm going to teach you the ideas, the theories, the techniques to understand the world around you and make predictions. and we can know if our

predictions. and we can know if our analysis is correct because all this is happening in real time and so we can test it against reality. All right, so

let's go over some basic facts about what's happened so far. So in the early morning of Saturday uh in Tran the

Israelis and Americans launched a decapitation strike against the Alatona uh Hami who is the supreme leader of

Iran. Now there are

Iran. Now there are arguments and and disputes about as to what happened. The Americans and

what happened. The Americans and Israelis said that they had real intelligence about where the leader was and so they sent airplanes to just bomb

the crap out of a place. They also had a spy who was able to record the body of the dead Aatollah and then this was

announced. At first, the Iranians denied

announced. At first, the Iranians denied this and the Iranians insisted he was still alive. But eventually, state media

still alive. But eventually, state media um admitted that he did die in the air strike. But then what they also said is

strike. But then what they also said is that they had to he's 86 years old and he chose to die. He could have gone to Moscow, but instead he chose to stay in

Tran and die for his people. But not

only that, but he died along many of his relatives. He died along with his

relatives. He died along with his daughter, his son-in-law, his grandchildren. So the entire So many of

grandchildren. So the entire So many of the family died in this assault.

Also, there's been reporting that he had prostrate cancer. Okay? So he was going

prostrate cancer. Okay? So he was going to die fairly soon as well. So what you need to understand first about the war is that even though the Americans and

Israelis claimed great success in decapitating the leadership of the Iranians from the Iranian perspective

this is a martyrdom martyrdom. Okay.

And so the religion of the Iranians is called Shia um Muslim. And this is different from

um Muslim. And this is different from Sunni Muslim. So uh Sunnis are majority.

Muslim. So uh Sunnis are majority.

They're about 9% of all Muslims in the world. The Shia have always been the

world. The Shia have always been the minority. And as such, they've always

minority. And as such, they've always been persecuted. So in the Shia faith,

been persecuted. So in the Shia faith, the core value, the force that binds everyone together and gives them purpose and meaning in life, that galvanizes

them into action is the idea of martyrdom, which forces jihad. You

sacrifice yourself for your religion, sacrifice yourself for the common good.

So think of the death of Kam as a sacrifice, a self-sacrifice in order to motivate their radiance in this war.

Okay? So that's the first thing you need to understand that for the Iranians, this is not a gibblical war. This is not an economic war. This is not a war of

resistance. This is a jihad. Okay? It's

resistance. This is a jihad. Okay? It's

a war against the great Satan to avenge their leader. They will fight to the

their leader. They will fight to the death. All right, that's number one.

death. All right, that's number one.

Number two is this. Also that morning when um the Ato was killed, they really

struck a school in the south of Tran killing about 150 school children. These

are girls in primary school. And again,

there's a lot of debate and argument as to what happened. This really said that first of all the school was next to a military base. We were targeting

military base. We were targeting military base and second of all it wasn't us which struck the school. It

was a air defense missile that went off course. Okay. And the Iranians insisted

course. Okay. And the Iranians insisted no. The the Israelis purposefully

no. The the Israelis purposefully attacked the school to kill the school children. And then you're like why would

children. And then you're like why would the Israelis do that? But then these few years what we've seen what they've done in Gaza in Palestine to the Palestinians

and it's pretty consistent what the Israelis have been doing. All right. So

this action against the Israelis it's meant to show to themselves in the world that we are now all in. Okay. We've made

the sacrifice.

We are now committed to this war to win this war at all cost. And this action has also provoked the Iranian people to resist with their full might. Okay? So I

want you to keep this in mind and again we don't have complete evidence that is the Israelis who did this but given past actions from the Israelis. This is

fairly consistent with what they've done. Okay. So we can assume that this

done. Okay. So we can assume that this is something the Israelis do did. why

they did this, what the purpose is.

Something we we will discuss as we move on. Okay? It's very complicated.

on. Okay? It's very complicated.

Next, I want to show you this. This is

Dubai. And Dubai is considered one of the wealthiest, safest cities in the world. There are thousands, tens of

world. There are thousands, tens of thousands of Westerners who move to Dubai because it's clean. You don't pay any taxes, you make a lot of money, and

you there are great restaurants. And

this is really the economic model of Dubai. It's one of the Gulf the GCC

Dubai. It's one of the Gulf the GCC countries, okay, the Gulf uh coastal countries. And for the longest time,

countries. And for the longest time, Dubai had a really good deal because they were under the protection of the American military. So they didn't have

American military. So they didn't have to pay for defense.

They and then they were in the Middle East which is the oil producing um center of the world and so they focus on aviation they focus on logistics they focus on finance on tourism they

extremely wealthy right I'm not sure if you've taken Emirates one of the best airlines in the world so their airport Dubai airport is the busiest in the

world and Dubai for the longest time was flourishing under American protection and Dubai said to the world. Listen,

we're like Switzerland. We're neutral.

We don't want any involvement in any wars. We're here just to take our

wars. We're here just to take our citizens, to make sure everyone has a good time, to make money. And then right after the war started, the Iranians

attacked the uh GCC. Okay. Dubai, Abu Dhabi,

uh Ban, Qatar, Kuwait, they attacked these places. And

these players were like, "What's going on? We're neutral, man. We're not

on? We're neutral, man. We're not

involved in this war." And the airport was shut down in Dubai. At at one point, rich the rich people in Dubai were

willing to pay about $250,000 US just to get on a plane and get out of there.

Okay.

So, um, the reality is this. For the

longest time, Dubai had a reputation for being safe and that's why people move their money there. Guess what, guys?

After what the Iranians did, it's dead.

Dubai as a city in the long term, it is dead. Because you're a wealthy

dead. Because you're a wealthy westerner, you're not going to move to a place where it could be attacked any time by the Iranians. You might move to Singapore, you might move to Hong Kong,

Japan, South America, but you're not moving to Dubai. Okay? So, the big question for us is why do the Indians do this? If we say it's really Americans

this? If we say it's really Americans who are attacked you, why go after the GCC?

All right. And not only that, but they're escalating the attacks against the GCC. So, this is something that we

the GCC. So, this is something that we will look at very closely today. Well,

the short answer is because these places, even though they they pretend to be neutral, they house the American military. They allow the Israelis and

military. They allow the Israelis and Americans to use their airspace to attack Iran from. All right. So this is Bahrain. Now Bahrain is interesting,

Bahrain. Now Bahrain is interesting, okay? Because I I want you guys to

okay? Because I I want you guys to remember this, but Bahrain will probably be one of the major centers of this conflict because first of all, this is the um American fifth fleet. All right,

this is their naval base in the Middle East. And as you can see, the Iranians

East. And as you can see, the Iranians are attacking it with missiles and it's being blown up. brain is interesting

because it has about 50% or even more okay Shia which is the religion of the Iranians but the people in charge are

the Sunnis and so what is the what makes this strike really important for from our perspective is first of all not only are

the Iranians attacking US military assets not only are or they destroying the economies of the GCC, but they're also also trying to ignite a religious war,

right? Because if you're Shia, you're

right? Because if you're Shia, you're loyal to the Aatollah. And if he's dead, then you must as a religious obligation now commit jihad against your enemies.

And it's no different in other religions where listen, if you want to kill the Pope, the Catholics would be really angry at you and they would want to kill you, right? So now you have the Shia who

you, right? So now you have the Shia who will probably eventually arise creating a revolution in Ban. Okay. So I think Ban will be the

in Ban. Okay. So I think Ban will be the first to fall. Dubai will probably go bankrupt. Okay. But in the long term we

bankrupt. Okay. But in the long term we can expect the entire GCC area including Saudi Arabia to eventually collapse.

Okay. And this something we will use game theory to understand.