Why the Global Economy Is Changing Rapidly | with Julien Bittel (Raoul Pal The Journey Man)

But really, if we're going from $2.5 trillion to hundred trillion, why the [ __ ] would you ever sell anything? I

mean, that's that's what I keep getting into my head is like, unless you have to or want to, you literally wouldn't. You

would just keep finding opportunities where it gets oversold to buy more because that's where it's going. This is

the biggest phase transition shift humanity's ever faced. And the whole thesis of don't [ __ ] this up is this.

You just keep hold of this trade in every guys that you've got it and ride the [ __ ] thing.

Yeah, we're leaving a world that's been dependent on capital and labor and moving into a world that's entirely dependent on comput and energy. And

that's a very different world.

Don't forget the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time. It's

3 years. It's gone from zero to hundred billion in revenues. This is La La Land.

Hi, I'm Ral Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman.

That's when I travel to the nexus of understanding between macro crypto and the exponential age of technology. I'm

obsessed by these things ever since I started the crypto journey in 2013 and started the exponential age, which is something I coined back in, I don't know, 2021, and everyone thought I was

[ __ ] nuts and now everything's going exponential. Um we talk about this a

exponential. Um we talk about this a lot. I've been producing a lot of

lot. I've been producing a lot of content around this. There'll be more um on the platform, more on um the YouTube channel as well. Um but you'll see this

focus of this universal code idea where we're converting units of energy into increasing units of intelligence and that is going exponential. Anyway, to

that effect, Julian and I do something on the platform for alpha members and above um called shooting the [ __ ] where we just talk what's on our mind to each other. It's kind of like a Twitch stream

other. It's kind of like a Twitch stream on the Real Vision platform, but I thought it would be worth sharing it with you guys so you can see a what's on the platform and what's in the alpha tier, but also because even though it's

a very loose form, us kind of shooting the [ __ ] with each other, I think it's gets across some really important points that you guys have to understand. So, I

hope you enjoy it and then come across the real vision, sign up for Alpha, and get some real alpha in this whole journey because we're on a hell of a ride. Anyway, enjoy.

ride. Anyway, enjoy.

Join me, Ral Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In the

journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Shooting the [ __ ] with Julian and I. um quite a lot going on. So I think we'll whiz through quite a few bits and pieces from

my perspective. Some of the things that

my perspective. Some of the things that I've been focusing on uh on the broader picture are what's going on.

I've had this whole thesis around this universal code that everything is funneling from energy into intelligence and it's driving the geopolitical process. It's driving the investment

process. It's driving the investment process. It's driving literally

process. It's driving literally everything right now. And what we're getting into is this funnel moment where this Trump administration, which was basically chosen by the accelerationist,

if you remember, is backed by the crypto lobby, and by all of the Democrats who used to be uh all of the tech overlords who used to be Democrats, all flipped

because they all knew that this chance was the chance because we're going to by the time we get to the change of administration, we will have AGI, we

will have crypto everywhere, all of this stuff. So, it's been hurtling towards

stuff. So, it's been hurtling towards this. Now, we're getting to the summer

this. Now, we're getting to the summer where everything has to resolve.

Everything has to resolve for Trump for the midterms because again, if if um I divided by E continues to play out, I

intelligence needs to accelerate, then it really has to have the uh Republicans winning the midterms. It's not necessary, but it's highly the most

efficient path for this to happen. So it

feels like all obstacles clear out the way. Now I'm not sure people realize

way. Now I'm not sure people realize even the governments realize that this is what they're doing, but this is what they're doing. Trump is getting the

they're doing. Trump is getting the clarity act across the line as we speak.

I said that was going to happen because it had to happen because the crypto lobby and what needs to happen before the midterms. We will see similar with AI because that's going to come too. We

have now got the change of Walsh. He's

been voted in. Walsh is the Greenspan appointment of the 1950s appointment.

He's going to run it hot. We will have um um we will have financial repression and they will let productivity take the

sting out of CPI um and keep core CPI lower. That's what

they're going to do. That's what in place. He is the tech accelerationist.

place. He is the tech accelerationist.

He's a crypto guy. He's a prolific tech investor. He understands the game.

investor. He understands the game.

Productivity is the game. Trump in the meantime is with Elon Jensen and about a hundred others of all of the tech leaders in the United States have all gone to China and Julian and I have

talked for a long time about a grand bargain that's coming and we think this is the stage of the grand bargain. Iran,

Venezuela is all part of the same picture which is get the cost of energy lower, get the Chinese, the Japanese, the South Koreans to own as much of the

long bonds as possible. The ESLR takes care of the short end plus stable coins too, which is why stable coins were so important because it finances the deficit. Trump's going to negotiate here

deficit. Trump's going to negotiate here with the Chinese maybe to give them a lower dollar in exchange. They will buy the long end. Um there'll be some kind of agreements on trade, some agreements

on who gets what technology. That's why

Jensen's there. Um there's going to be some agreement over access to Nvidia.

This is to avoid going to war over Taiwan, which nobody can do because it slows down the intelligence side because all of the chip fabs are there. So there

has to be a splitting up of the two regions into the US and China, the only two people who can compete in the AI race. That is what is going on in this

race. That is what is going on in this negotiation in my belief. The weaker

dollar is another part. The UAE being given swap lines, Bessant going to South Korea and Japan. They're b he's basically saying you know the euro dollar system that lends to China is out

of those countries and he's basically going to offer the Chinese liquidity and the Chinese liquidity will flow through to the system in the same way that we expect global liquidity to come through.

It allows the dollar to weaken which weakens financial conditions. It'll

allow oil price to come down because there's going to be agreements on Iran at the end of this. We have Venezuela wrapped in as well. This is a very big setup happening and it all has to get

done and agreed and see things happening over the summer because the elections coming up. So, it's a crucial time and

coming up. So, it's a crucial time and it seems to be playing out in the business cycle, markets, charts, it's all uh corroborating this. So, Julian,

what are you seeing?

Um, no, I mean I I agree with everything you said. I I touch on small bits of it

you said. I I touch on small bits of it within MIT, but obviously we wrote a really big piece about this in GMI. The

thing that yesterday um during an IC call, one of the questions was where are we in the cycle? Are we late or early?

and I said mid. But I think what's interesting is if we're right about oil and if we're right about the dollar, all of a sudden we're in a situation where

we have like almost a a a new breath, right, of where financial conditions extend the cycle even further into next year. And I'm going to write this up in

year. And I'm going to write this up in GMI and you did a whole piece on this last month is that the probability of a super cycle is is getting reasonably

high now because of this massive capex spend that cannot stop. The race with China is on. The administration wants this to happen. They need it for votes

and everything else. So they will push for this whole thing. Liquidity looks

like it'll come in any way, shape, or form. Now, because bill is the main part

form. Now, because bill is the main part of the liquidity cycle, we're actually losing cyclicality because of it.

Even though we've got the big debt rollovers, but we've got 9 trillion to do this year, nine trillion next year.

It's like it's ongoing. So the point you and of I have been talking about for maybe a year and a half, maybe two years is we thought that after this cycle would be a super cycle and now we're

kind of starting to think, you know what, maybe we don't get a full liquidity down cycle here. Sure, we'll

get market corrections, we'll get sideways trends for 6 months, whatever it is, but really speaking, we could see an extended extremely hot business cycle

that runs. And the only thing that would

that runs. And the only thing that would null and void that is if the bond market says no freaking way. Which is why Bessant is over in China and Japan trying to stop that happening by getting

more buyers at the long end. So it's

kind of anything over like five five a half% of 10ear notes. You start to say okay this could decouple. But we also know the reaction function is the moment that happens they do something. So it's

kind of they don't want it to happen.

They'll use some vague form of yield curve control to keep this happening. So

I kind of aming towards the super cycle which is the dangerous thing cuz somebody on here is going to say you know after we have some liquidity cycle you said it was a super cycle. I'm not

I'm saying probabilistically it's increasing and you think that as well right?

Yeah I do think that I mean that was the compute cycle article from GMI right and I I also talked a little bit about that in the MIT video. It's just to the extent that now everything is downstream

to compute. So AI has flipped causality.

to compute. So AI has flipped causality.

Now everything used to follow the ISM because people would say well new orders are ticking higher. Expectations are

improving and therefore semiconductors followed the real world production cycle. That's now changed. Um and then

cycle. That's now changed. Um and then you have everything that we've discussed like the red queen which I talked about in my last video. But it's all these things coming together and the charts as well. So that's the point is like

well. So that's the point is like there's inflation wasn't nearly as bad as it was made out to be over the last two days which is why on the PPI print again I talk about this in MIT you saw

the market come lower but you know the one-year break even didn't move the the forward curve pricing for Fed rate hikes last year actually flattened and equities closed at all-time highs so

it's telling you that inflation's not a problem and then even then the five-year break even hasn't moved at all. So what

it's the market's just priced in is an what we a supply driven oil shock which the Fed should therefore look through and I talk about war in the same way that you do in my latest MIT but it it

just feels like it's kind of all coming together which was highly out of consensus heading into this year right it was that liquidity peaked last year if liquidity peaked last year you would

not have the NASDAQ at all-time highs staging the most significant rally forget coming out of COVID over the last month it's the most significant month rally since coming out of GFC if you

know and there's other things going on right of course there's anthropic there's I mean anthropic is is [ __ ] wild I want to mention this because again you wrote about it in the last GMI but

anthropic now looks like it's going to go from 44 billion to 50 billion which makes it like a 100% yearon-year

uh rate of change that's happening their compute is they're completely out of comput. I can see it in my claude.

comput. I can see it in my claude.

They've had to negotiate from Elon plus gets a bunch of other compute. Jensen's

telling us, AMD are telling us, Intel are telling us just the endless amount of compute because Jivvon's paradox is paying out is the more compute you give people, the cheaper it is, the more

people want. And it's never going to

people want. And it's never going to stop. So unless there's a complete

stop. So unless there's a complete paradigm shift, the demand for this um semi cycle is going to be at least

into 2030 and beyond.

Well, the demand as you say is already here. That's what's very different to

here. That's what's very different to this buildout versus like the internet or rail, you know, or anything is that that demand was all speculative, right?

But the demand is already here. So it

changes the entire cycle. Um, so yeah, things are coming together in terms of things I'm looking at. Um, let me move you over here. Just pulling up a couple couple charts.

So share.

So, I'll just start um I'll start by by just talking about Bitcoin and then I'll kind of move out the curve and talk a little bit about equities. But this is basically the same

equities. But this is basically the same chart I've been showing repeatedly on these shows. And what I've been watching

these shows. And what I've been watching is this um 120day exponential moving average. And you can see that basically

average. And you can see that basically we tapped against that here, you know, rejected. We tapped against it here,

rejected. We tapped against it here, rejected, of course, but you know, managed to stabilize. And now we're well above that. And if anything, I think if

above that. And if anything, I think if we just zoom into this, I mean, this looks a lot like a bull flag to me.

Don't know how how you you're thinking about it, but so that it does.

So that's Bitcoin. And then if I look at ETH, it's a similar setup, but we're not yet free. Um because here's the

yet free. Um because here's the exponential moving average. And you can see the the compression going on here.

Yeah.

Um and we really need to clear call it 2,400, but that's kind of the level that I'm watching there. Sue is just what a move we had on Sunday. Um, but if I zoom

in a bit, I don't know, looks like a bullish falling wedge to me. It's it's

consolidating before the next move, I would say.

Yeah, I agree.

Um, deep a little further out the risk curve. Again, these patterns are really

curve. Again, these patterns are really interesting because these symmetrical triangle patterns because it's either um like traditional technical analysis, it's either a continuation pattern or a

reversal. So, they're a bit difficult to

reversal. So, they're a bit difficult to to play, which is why sometimes you could do like a straddle or a butterfly, you know, in options, which is basically just you get to play either move. Um,

but in this case, it's broken higher, come down to retest, and it had a pretty up 3% today. Tow, I don't know how you're drawing your your bid tensor

charts, but this looks, you know, pretty good to me. Hype just a series of, you know, continuation consolidations.

Um, and then I had touched on Doge last time. I think this chart still looks

time. I think this chart still looks good.

Yeah, don't disagree.

And then going over to um, you know, equities. I mean, look, circle.

equities. I mean, look, circle.

I mean, that's like such a fabulous chart.

It is. And we added at the pro tier at $56.

So, we bought here. Um, so we're up well over 100%. But the point is is that if

over 100%. But the point is is that if we're right about where we're going with everything here, people are really still underestimating this story. Um, and the chart's kind of telling you that, isn't

it? It's huge inverse head and shoulders

it? It's huge inverse head and shoulders pattern.

And this chart is not pricing in the speed of which stable coins are going to grow and are growing. It's as simple as that. It's an easy story. It's just not

that. It's an easy story. It's just not there. It's just not priced.

there. It's just not priced.

No. Um, and then, you know, Tesla's had a a pretty decent run here. Um, so I think that that looks good having retested the downtrend. I still keep coming back to this chart on solar

once again. Well, hang on a second. Let

once again. Well, hang on a second. Let

me just look at the demar counts because Oh, well, there you go. Okay, so

there's a daily 13 here now, but it feels to me like maybe we can do a 99 139. By the way, this is a weekly chart,

139. By the way, this is a weekly chart, so it's and it's got a clear there's a lot of congestion over on the left, right? So,

it might not get through that first time. It needs to [ __ ] around for a bit

time. It needs to [ __ ] around for a bit and then do something.

Yeah. But the point I mean we got in a lot lower uh for pro and GMI, but the I think the point with this is just Well, we got in near the very low.

Yeah. Yeah. GMI, we're a little bit higher on pro, but yes. I mean, this is something we've been talking about for a long time. I mean, the solar story is

long time. I mean, the solar story is one of those big stories as well coupled with stable coin. So, I just wanted to revisit this chart because really it's been it's been flying. And then

coin is really trying to break out here.

Um, so this looks like an ascending triangle. And again, if we can close

triangle. And again, if we can close above 214, I like to look at that chart.

It's a big day for coin. It's up almost 9%. Um, so anyway, those are kind of

9%. Um, so anyway, those are kind of just the the market charts I'm been I've been looking at and just kind of following this week.

Yeah, let me um let me share some mine as well. Um

as well. Um so let me just get rid of them the demark. I mean we said here that this

demark. I mean we said here that this was going to reverse because of the liquidity flows came back and [ __ ] me did that reverse as you said. I mean

that was historic like this one was as well. I mean there is no stopping this.

well. I mean there is no stopping this.

Every time you have a correction and people were yelling at us saying it was all over. It was all over and then that

all over. It was all over and then that happened. But you know we've had the

happened. But you know we've had the same thing in I'll come back to stocks in a sec but you know as you mentioned you know when everybody

said that's it the party's over it's the end of the bull market we can all go away the market did exactly what we suggested which has come up and this was exactly to do and I think you you should

show the ch up that chart in a bit the one we looked at this morning you and I which is the US liquidity chart and it's like it's [ __ ] Perfect. Um, so you know that seems to be playing out as

expected. The liquidity flow is

expected. The liquidity flow is happening. It's all on track for what we

happening. It's all on track for what we expect.

I still think crypto will outperform uh tech stocks uh at the next phase of the cycle. So I think that's pretty good. Um

cycle. So I think that's pretty good. Um

I won't go through most of these. The

other chart I'm very closely following is Zcash um which has been a a great one. And I think somewhere here we're

one. And I think somewhere here we're going to be doing a another one of these kind of inverse head and shoulders continuation patterns. Yeah, it comes down, breaks

patterns. Yeah, it comes down, breaks through, next phase of acceleration. So

I kind of like that one as well. Um,

going back to stocks, as you said, I mean Tesla's now, let's look at the weekly to give it some perspective.

I mean, this wedge is going to break.

Yeah. And when this wedge breaks, nobody's really prepared for this. Um,

and I So, I still still think fundamentally it's amazing. Rocket Labs

has been wow [ __ ] rocket ship. And look, I get this is a very overvalued stock versus

its revenues. But before the SpaceX IPO,

its revenues. But before the SpaceX IPO, the only way of paying the SpaceX IPO is owning this stock.

And if I look at this rising wedge, if it breaks the top of this, which it looks like it's going to do, it's just going to go vertical for a while. And

then I think we'll take profits into that because, you know, it's it's not making a lot of revenue right now. Um,

it's still losing money. Everything

else, I get it. and the SpaceX IPO will satiate the demand for, you know, space stocks, but this is the play. Um, and I think it's going to go vertical.

The thing about that chart though, that's crazy, I was just pulled up the GMI portfolio. We added Rocket Labs at

GMI portfolio. We added Rocket Labs at like seven bucks originally.

Yeah.

Then then it did a 300%, then we sold it, and then we bought it back at 18 $18 and now it's up six that position's up 600%.

The new position.

The new position.

Yeah. So, I don't know how much [ __ ] money we've made in that, but it's been preposterous. I don't know. I don't

preposterous. I don't know. I don't

think we've got it in pro anymore, have we?

But we probably got it in Exponentialist.

Yeah. No, I don't think we have it in Pro.

Um, so, okay. I mean, that's been a killer. Obviously, Nvidia exploding

killer. Obviously, Nvidia exploding again. It helps. Jensen's in China.

again. It helps. Jensen's in China.

Clearly, he's going to be allowed to sell Nvidia chips to China. On what

terms, we don't know.

And when you look at this chart, I mean, if assuming that we're right, assuming the compute cycle articles, right? I

mean, we're the move has just started.

I It's just one of the wildest charts in history.

I mean, had I mean I mean, wow. I mean,

had you bought that back in 2012?

Yeah.

What a move. Um then you know Intel has been I mean that chart was la land as well. Oracle I think everyone's going to

well. Oracle I think everyone's going to be wrong on Oracle. Oracle is probably going to go back to the new all-time highs. Uh semis you showed tan circle

highs. Uh semis you showed tan circle goods still really like this stock. I think

people are still wildly underestimating the size of the market in in personalized medicine and um these compounding clinics and the technology

that they've got and the sheer size of the um peptides market. So yeah, it came down on earnings. I think it finds a base somewhere here and as it goes

through we'll form an inverse head and shoulders and this thing's going to be exploding higher. So I really like him

exploding higher. So I really like him as well. the demark wave count just

as well. the demark wave count just opened up a new wave higher now that we've come lower as well. So on on Bloomberg. So

Bloomberg. So um E Toro we don't have but we had the only Asteron recently. Lovely inverse

head and shoulders low. I mean

interestingly they had great earnings um in the same quarter that Robin Hood and Coinbase didn't.

Uh they got one and a half billion of cash. It's like a third of their entire

cash. It's like a third of their entire market cap is cash they're sitting on.

So it's a wildly undervalued stock. So I

kind of like that. Um DXY not doing a lot. You know, I think we need to get

lot. You know, I think we need to get through the China situation. Um, get

some outcome. It won't happen immediately, but over time, we still think that the dollar goes lower or at least doesn't go anywhere important. So,

nobody has to worry about the dollar. I

mean, you know, there's a chance that it comes back down to here. You know,

if that happens, then, you know, this really is going to be a very, very big bull market.

Um, yeah, absolutely.

So, we'll wait and see on that. Uh,

rates we looked at, you know, rates are kind of not very happy right now. I

think this is going to end up being a false break and we'll break back down again for the reasons we've talked about, but we need to watch it. You

know, if it starts breaking up here, you want to start considering a what the reaction function is. Remember the uh friend of ours quote, it's not trading the thing, it's trading the reaction to

the thing. i.e. you don't short rates.

the thing. i.e. you don't short rates.

It's what they do if rates get high that's an easier trade and more profitable. Um so I think that gets

profitable. Um so I think that gets interesting. Oil has been Let's go to

interesting. Oil has been Let's go to the daily chart. [ __ ] around for a bit.

We erased the nine count which is slightly annoying. Um but nevertheless

slightly annoying. Um but nevertheless I'm not sure what the latest counts are.

No, but we kind of know that they have to get a solution, you know, because of the election, because of the universal code. So, I'm

just patiently saying it will come. Um,

the other one's been copper.

I I while I love the copper thesis, what worries me about copper is every [ __ ] hedge fund I know is longness. We saw

that the GMI round table, right? It's

the it's the easy way to say, "Well, I don't want to play the multiples on tech stocks. I'm just going to own copper."

stocks. I'm just going to own copper."

I mean, I get the story, but that's that's the only issue to me is is maybe it's not as easy a trade as people think it's going to be. And maybe we see these moves a lot.

The the spec positioning right now is very stretched as a percentage of total open interest. So, as you say, it it

open interest. So, as you say, it it does feel pretty consensus now. And the

Chinese have vast amounts of this stuff in storage, which I think they've been using as collateral to get dollars because they've been dollar starved.

Now, if they open the swap lines, do they end up selling off or unleashing inventories of copper, which is excess demand in the market that wasn't there

before? Don't know. Um I just it just

before? Don't know. Um I just it just always makes me nervous copper. Um but

you know, I've also lived through some stupendous copper bull markets in the past when China came on the scene. I

mean, this was a I mean, I never forget this move. I

mean, that was stupid.

Yeah. 2001 WTO

59 cents. Yeah. I mean, it's 10x in copper basically, which is quite something. Now, could that happen again?

something. Now, could that happen again?

Yes. Um,

but I think it's it's not as clean a trade, but I could be wrong.

And that's basically what I'm looking at. Can you flip up that chart of the uh

at. Can you flip up that chart of the uh Yeah. So you mean of of uh liquidity

Yeah. So you mean of of uh liquidity versus Bitcoin?

Yeah. The US liquidity chart which is seems to be still what's what's the larger influence on Bitcoin?

There we go. Just put it up now. Not yet

on the screen. Oh, there it is. Yeah.

I know people like Sarah Walk it to pieces saying, "Well, the correlation, causation, and blah blah blah blah."

Look, it looks good to me. I like the chart.

It's worked. It's worked very well and it doesn't we don't expect it to be perfect. It will not be perfect, but

perfect. It will not be perfect, but contextually speaking feels like the market should be strong into the summer and that makes sense if liquidity is the dominant factor.

Yeah. And then we need to figure out how high we get and whether or not you know what the sentiment's like at the time.

But as I' as I keep saying, we don't necessarily need to play the TGA drain because the difference between a TGA drain with QT drain is that that's the

amplifier. Whereas when you have QE

amplifier. Whereas when you have QE either from the banks or the Fed, the TGA no longer is the amplifier, but just creates volatility around the trend.

You know what's going to happen if we don't say to people, oh, you need to be careful of this, and it happens. People

say, you didn't tell us. And if we do tell people it didn't happen, they're saying you [ __ ] You know, it's only the TGA. So there is no winning for us

the TGA. So there is no winning for us in this. And I can already read the

in this. And I can already read the comment section in July where we're being scathed for whichever we say here.

So do your own research. Figure it out yourselves. Uh because there is no

yourselves. Uh because there is no upside for us. Literally

um expected future expected value from us making a call on this is negative in every circumstance.

What I'm saying is what I'm just saying is keep an open mind. You know, it's um Can you put up the chart of the or if you can't I can of uh total US liquidity

including bank loans which is important for the tech sector and everything else where the money is flowing and I think it will reassert its dominance in crypto.

So do you mean uh as opposed to just the banks looking at total loans and leases?

So the broader US version and then we'll look at the global version.

That's this one.

Yeah. And so you can see that the TGA draw down there is less.

That's now out of date. Let me see if mine is um mine should be up to date because I took the latest reading which Yeah. No, because if I look at mine,

Yeah. No, because if I look at mine, sorry, I'm just going to Should I stop sharing?

Yeah, just stop for a second and we'll go back to you. Um

because I think yours is weekly and so mine is just a bit further up that ramp.

So this is a nothingness, right? Yeah.

But I have the latest data as being for total loans and leases being April 29th.

That's why in my my my model, which is why maybe you have something else.

Yeah.

I've got of them.

I don't know. Anyway,

yeah, the point. Go back to those charts we

the point. Go back to those charts we were just looking at.

Stop sharing here.

So, a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about

programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got 5 years to make as much money as possible.

And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the

what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. Okay. So,

description. Download it now. Okay. So,

that that gives us, you know, that's basically if I put the NASDAQ against that chart, it's one for one right now.

Yeah. Um well, we can try. Yeah. Let's

have a look. I bet it is 100.

Well, there you go. I I have to want to scale it, but you can I mean, yeah, something like that.

Yeah.

Be it even 8,000, whatever it is. But

again, whether the lead lag is slightly different or whatever.

Stop.

Stop. And then you know having taken the I keep saying this or sorry we keep saying this US liquidity bottomed right

after the shutdown ended. Um and and here I've rebased US total liquidity. Um

now this is the broader measure including total loans and leases and then the GMI daily liquidity composite excluding US. So that's at alltime highs

excluding US. So that's at alltime highs and then the US is also this was the this was the um the TGA rebuild.

Yeah.

And now obviously we're working that out already. So these things are again to

already. So these things are again to our point uh that we've been outlining in reports rising together uh for the first time really since July August of last year.

Exactly.

And then if I look at GMI total which is this is the daily one.

I mean that's that's a thing of beauty.

It is. And again, this only accounts for about 70% of our total monthly number, but it's enough to at least tell you directionally where we are. And look,

the consensus view, the backlash that we were receiving really all through the Mike Hal backlash. I remember that well, like like but like Feb, March, like all the way through it, you know, was that

liquidity peaked in Q3 of last year. I

mean, it no and again the market would not be doing what it's doing if that was true. Shunk spreads are almost near

true. Shunk spreads are almost near all-time lows. The move is back at the

all-time lows. The move is back at the lows. The VIX is back at the lows. I

lows. The VIX is back at the lows. I

mean, if the theory was that credit would be deteriorating and as a result of that, credit spreads would widen, the market would be lower, none of that is actually happening.

No.

So, anyway, uh that's what I'm watching.

Also, um you were building a dashboard around the pro positions and stuff. It

was that our average trade is up 155%.

Yeah, there's a couple of long-term ones that were up a lot, but that was crazy, right?

Okay, let me um Should we show that or not yet?

No, we shouldn't. We can't show all the positions to nonpro us.

Oh, that's right. That's right. Yeah.

Yeah. No, it's Yeah, it's the Let me um I just closed down because I've I have to open it in um Let me Yes, active

position is up 130%.

um we've got an 84% win rate um out of you know positions historically open and closed and of the ones that are

open um 25 are winners and six are losers and the losers are not really that big of a loser either. Um,

currently our biggest win, well, Salana's up 200 since we added, you know, some of the other positions like Circle, we're up, as I as I pointed out

just a minute ago, we're up over 130%.

Uh, big win. I mean, since since you added, this is before you and I started working together because his portfolio existed before then, but

Bitcoin was added in June of 2020.

That's up 900%. Ethereum's up over 900%.

I mean, again, and that goes back to what you and I have always been saying, like, we play the business cycle. It's

important. It's why we track everything.

You have to pay attention to inflation and growth and things like that. But

over the long term, assuming you have conviction in whatever it is that you're investing in, it's better to just zoom out and add on on dips as opposed to trying to day trade. I hear you say that

all the time around the podcast that you've been doing around I don't know you know I know very few people who are successful day traders and I know a lot of very very wealthy investors. The

whole thing about being an investor is what what does that mean? Well, doing a bit of research, you know, investing in something and locking up a pool of capital for an extended period of time and seeing those returns compound.

I know. and people are so freaked out about the cyclicality in crypto um that they miss the bigger picture. Now

we're building that dashboard that hopefully will come out soon which gives people the ability to buy the two standard deviation oversold and sell it when it's high. You can take some lifestyle chips off it makes it so it's

not just waiting for when I do mine.

It's like you can make a your own methodology. You can choose it. You can

methodology. You can choose it. You can

do it. Um that's fine. But really, if we're going from $2 and a half trillion dollars to hundred trillion dollars, why the [ __ ] would you ever sell anything? I

mean, that's that's what I keep getting into my head is like, unless you have to or want to, you literally wouldn't. You

would just keep finding opportunities where it gets oversold to buy more because that's where it's going. And,

you know, if we think about the agent economy in its infinite time, we think about the Clarity Act getting passed. We

think about the entire [ __ ] financial system building on on crypto rails.

Think about ID. Think about agentic ID, robotic ID, human ID. Think of all of these things. And you're going to sell

these things. And you're going to sell it because R and Julian thinks the liquidity cycle is going to slow down for a bit. It's [ __ ] bananas. And I I I'm kind of I kind of get pissed off

with it now. Um, even though I understand people need it, but I'm just when I look at the opportunity and I present it and I talk about it and we're at this moment in time, the fastest acceleration of technology in all of

human history and we're trying to time technology is stupid. That's anyway, that's my rant

stupid. That's anyway, that's my rant over.

No, that's why we're here. Um, no, I I totally agree. So, uh, that's

totally agree. So, uh, that's that's why our JPEGs that's why our JPEGs will do so well is because we can't trade them because they're illquid and having a liquid JPEGs means you just

hold them for 10 years and before you know it's something you bought for, you know, 25 grand is worth $2 and a half million dollars and you haven't had to do anything except look at in your wallet and think, "What a beautiful

piece of art." It's not that difficult.

I I um was talking to a friend of mine uh earlier this week about the the piece that we just published at GMI and he pointed me to the last bit which I

reread this morning which I think is just so good and it says the world spent the past two years teaching AI to think.

The next 20 years will be spent teaching it to see, move and build. Every step

requires hardware the world has not yet manufactured. Energy uh energy the grids

manufactured. Energy uh energy the grids have not been generated yet and the rails and financial system um has not yet deployed. Every step is investable.

yet deployed. Every step is investable.

This is not the late stage of an old cycle. It's the early stage of a new one

cycle. It's the early stage of a new one and the buildout has only begun. Welcome

to the exponential age. Exactly. And

what we're doing is fully transitioning between the exponential age, which is the acceleration phase where technology starts compounding into the economic singularity. This is the move we're

singularity. This is the move we're making right now where the old rails are no longer fit for intelligent for

siliconbased speed. Right? Don't forget

siliconbased speed. Right? Don't forget

silicon processes a million times faster. That's six orders of magnitude

faster. That's six orders of magnitude faster than the human neuron. Nothing is

set up for this. and we have to rebuild everything from scratch. And that is what's underway. This is the biggest

what's underway. This is the biggest phase transition shift humanity's ever faced. Um, and the whole thesis of don't

faced. Um, and the whole thesis of don't [ __ ] this up is this is you just keep hold of this trade in every guys that you've got it and ride the [ __ ]

thing.

Yeah. And it's not just to the the point of this the capex super cycle which we've been outlining and talking about really for over a year now which is kind of coming into focus with semis up now

80% yearonear but it's also that another thing I I wrote about in the article is we're going to go through the largest immigration event in human history only it's not humans it's agents and robots.

Yeah.

And again none of that infrastructure has really been built out. It's being

built out now.

That's right. And you know, we're going to shift from the magic formula of GDP equals population growth plus debt growth uh plus productivity growth into

the economic singularity version which is AI plus robots plus humans. And

productivity is how much intelligence you can produce per unit of energy.

Yeah. And then debt will get eroded away because GDP growth so strong will be so strong and inflation will be very subdued over the period of time

that when you look back like the 1950s and60s you ended up going from 120% of debt to GDP down to about 10 and we'll do the same all over again.

And no one's again I I I haven't spoken to anybody who's thinking like that.

No. Um, and it's [ __ ] it's [ __ ] obvious and I keep saying these things now. Uh, it's like all of this is so

now. Uh, it's like all of this is so [ __ ] obvious and it's falsifiable and it is literally the whole framework is not putting a foot wrong on these big broad concepts. Sure, wiggles here and

broad concepts. Sure, wiggles here and there, but it is happening. It is

happening at scale and this whole funneling of the the entire focus of the world is moving towards intelligence per unit of energy and

that's the entire game.

Yeah. We're leaving a world that's been dependent on capital and labor and moving into a world that's entirely dependent on comput and energy and

that's a very different world and both of them are in Wright's law this is what people understand because look at the oil price but Wright's law if you look at the price of solar wind

geothermal everything I mean these things are down 99.9%.

compute is doing the same on top of Mo's law. It's like so you've got both sides

law. It's like so you've got both sides of the equation seeing exploding productivity and therefore the ex the intelligent side of the equation is

accelerating and this is the thing people don't understand because normally they're kind of fixedish. You know, you can build a certain amount of factories per, you know, jewel of energy, but when you're building intelligence, the

[ __ ] thing is moving at Reed's law, which is Metcov's law squared. And we're

seeing every chart is doing this. Never

in humanity has Reed's law ever been witnessed at scale. And it's being witnessed in almost everything I look at right now.

Well, this is what we were we were just talking about before we came on the call. I I don't again, was it two years

call. I I don't again, was it two years ago? Was it a year ago? Was it three

ago? Was it a year ago? Was it three years ago? But we, one of our clients

years ago? But we, one of our clients had had had said to us that there's we talk too much about exponentials within our research. And how do you define an

our research. And how do you define an exponential? And now literally

exponential? And now literally everything that we're talking about is going exponential.

I just I called it the exponential age.

When I first wrote about this bloody thing four years ago or five years ago and here it is. I mean, it's just it's it's all happening and we're and the economic singularity. I said 2030 to

economic singularity. I said 2030 to 2032. I think 2030 is spot on. I think

2032. I think 2030 is spot on. I think

we'll be straight into the economic singularity where nothing makes sense anymore in terms of how the economy works. I think we're hurtling straight

works. I think we're hurtling straight into that. And then, you know, the only

into that. And then, you know, the only variant factor is US rates. If they get too high because something happens, then can that cause wobbles problems? Yes.

Will it cause a tightening cycle? I'm

not sure.

Uh it depends what's causing it. Well,

no, because the hyperscalers don't aren't really worried about the the Fed funds, rate, right? It's it's not the old economy, the industrial econ economy that's been dependent on the cost of

debt, right? So, that's that means the

debt, right? So, that's that means the slowdowns all of a sudden if if if if we're right that and not just the h the hypers scale, let's just say AI and capex become a larger part of GDP going

forward. That means that the GDP draw

forward. That means that the GDP draw downs over time will become less cyclical because until we've got to a buildout that makes sense for the machine age.

And we're, as you rightly pointed out, we're nowhere near that yet.

We're not even close.

We barely started.

Anyway, amazing. Lots of lots of ranting from us

amazing. Lots of lots of ranting from us today, but um but it's look what a time to be alive.

That's all I can keep saying. So

and and I've been saying I mean not now obviously but I do think maybe in six months time or whatever it is as these things play out you know we we we

should release the compute cycle article for everyone because it's really important for people to understand what's happening you know obviously that's at GMI now and it doesn't even need to be this year but

at some point people need to see no I think I think we'll try and release it earlier and maybe for everybody just because it's really important people understand all this framing. People are

still struggling with the universal code framing. Um but everyone will understand

framing. Um but everyone will understand over time. Like when we started the

over time. Like when we started the exponential age, everyone thought I was a total [ __ ] This uh universal code, I know I'm right. Um you know, hopefully people saw that sweet presentation where

I applied it to blockchain valuations.

We applied it to the HIMS valuation. We

applied it to the Japanese um market situation. I've just applied it to um to

situation. I've just applied it to um to Walsh and I've just applied it to um the Trump uh China delegation.

Mo mostly it'll be right.

No. And the only reason I'm saying at some point we we should release it is because I I noticed my language is changing. You know what I mean? And I'm

changing. You know what I mean? And I'm

talking in a way that I haven't historically, you know, spoken and and therefore it's important that people understand the concepts you and I are referring to in order to make sense of everything.

You know, you and I talked about this at the GMI round table over drinks late at night is like the business cycle is less important than it was.

Not that it's not important, but it's not the dominant factor anymore.

The dominant factor is the secular accelerating trends. And there's and

accelerating trends. And there's and that's the way it's going to be for a while I think but we'll see you know maybe we're wrong we'll change our minds we're not saying definitely definitely definitely we're just saying as we see

it this is how we see it that the business cycle becomes less dominant

uh of the factor than both liquidity plus the secular acceleration of of uh energy into units of intelligence. And

this also explains, you know, in relation to my last video update in MIT, you know, there's been this big bifurcation, right, between, you know, remember that famous chart from BCA which we referred to like AI driven, you

know, GDP and then like everything that's more historically linked to like industrial production. And this is why,

industrial production. And this is why, and I'll say it again, why Heinrich has been wrong for three years, because he's using an old business cycle macro framework to call for a recession.

Because certain areas of the economy are not quite recessionary, but at least subdued, which is why the ISM is doing this, because on one hand, you've got one part of the economy that's doing this, the other you got another part

which is doing this. So the ISM is almost the average of that, but you can't actually see what's going on inside. But that old business cycle

inside. But that old business cycle framework will never work again.

No. And the other thing, and I was um doing some work on this this morning, is people keep bringing up the chilipe, the most expensive the market's ever been.

Uh and you're like, you don't understand what debasement does to the denominator, because what you're allowing is price keeps going up because of debasement,

the price of a stock, but the earnings grow with GDP growth. Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business and then your [ __ ] earnings are going vertical.

I mean, don't forget the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of

time. It's three years. It's gone from

time. It's three years. It's gone from zero to hundred billion dollars in revenues.

This is La La Land. and it did most of it last year alone. So it went from like 10 billion to a hundred billion in a year. Nothing has ever come close to

year. Nothing has ever come close to this.

Yeah. And and to your point earlier about I mean there are no certainties in this in in in in what we're doing. But

as you rightfully point out is we're really if you're not open-minded to a changing structure of the business cycle and adapting your framework as a result of that, you're going to get left behind.

Totally agree. Now you're going to get left behind because you need to leave.

Get out the door.

All right, everyone. Hope you enjoyed it. Uh we'll see you very soon.

it. Uh we'll see you very soon.

Take care.

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