Will the 2026 AI Rally Continue? Urgent Check on Nvidia, Google, Tesla, Oracle | Dan Ives, Wedbush

Welcome to the 2026 market outlook specially prepared by Siri Pro TV as we look forward to 2026.

Here are the questions remained. Is the

market ready for this next leap or are we facing an overheated bubble? To find

out the answer, we've invited one of Wall Street's most influential voices.

Please welcome Dan Ies, global head of tech research at Wedbush Securities and chairman at 8 coord.

Nice to meet you guys.

>> Great to be here. Great to be here. I

have to tell you, you have a huge fan base here in Korea. Our viewers have been eagerly waiting for your turn.

Your strong conviction in the AI revolution during your last visit left a deep impression on all of us. So today

we'll talk about if that conviction holds strong for 2026 as well. So to

verify this AI revolution, we first need to look at the macro issues since AI is sensitive to Fed's rate cut as well.

Everyone saw the rate cut coming, but here's the puzzle. Some are calling it a hawkish cut because the Fed didn't sound very relaxed. I'm curious about your

very relaxed. I'm curious about your take and despite these mixed signals, why did the market initially react with such enthusiasm?

>> I mean, at the end of the day, Pal's a lame duck.

>> He could he could say what he wants.

Hid's going to take over >> and Hasset's a dove. So, you know, a 100 bips is going to be factored in over the next six to seven months. And I think that's the reality. You could have

dissenters all day long, >> but the reality is is that with Hassid coming in, >> there's a view hawkish cut, whatever you want to call it,

>> the hands of force right now that they're going to have to go in a significant cut cycle.

>> So, going back to Fed's initial um meeting, the real drama was inside the room. So we saw a historic split. Three

room. So we saw a historic split. Three

out of 12 members voted against it. Even

Austin Goulsby, typically a dove, argued for a freeze, which was a big surprise to the market. What does this internal conflict tell us?

>> Well, you could argue with tariffs and some of the inflation numbers, especially the government shutdown, you didn't really have that information. So

maybe you know it caused some sort of you know for some asking for a pause but look the reality is like market even wants more aggressive cuts.

>> Yeah.

>> And then you saw the one for the 50 bips you know in terms of the Trump employees. So look I just think it comes

employees. So look I just think it comes down to like you're going to have the centers but you are on what's going to be an aggressive cut path over the next

year. H

year. H I also noticed that Fed decided to buy back short-term Treasury bills. So

seeing from a strategic standpoint, what does this move mean?

>> I mean, you essentially went from QT tightening to QE easing. I mean that's look and it's bullish because when you look at the market like look the economy I mean obviously we'll

talk about AI revolution everything happening there but other parts of the economy it's bumpy right I mean we see like job you know in terms of some of

the employment numbers that that are just very very wobbly you need cuts and I think the Fed is viewing this as a

time to sort of ease >> President Trump is already vocal saying the Fed should have been more aggressive

>> like the market wanted. Considering that

Treal's term ends next year, does this create the perfect macro environment for the AI rally to continue or could an

overheated economy trigger backlash that hurts the tech stocks?

>> Yeah, I kind of view the former. I I

think this this sets up for just bullishness into next year because it's not just about AI revolution.

It's about you're going to have a cutting cycle. You're going to have a

cutting cycle. You're going to have a dove as Fed chair.

>> And I think that's all very very positive for risk on trade playing out in 2026. And of course it all starts

in 2026. And of course it all starts with AI revolution like the demand look even like names like Oracle that have sold off on their earnings.

>> Yeah.

>> You look at the core backlog RPO it's off the charts. So I think it's very easy you know me and you've before

with things like Deep Seek Liberation Day maybe reactions right after quarters. It's very easy where the

quarters. It's very easy where the bears, you know, they come out of hibernation mood and try to yell fire in a crowded theater. So, you have to I think you have to look past it >> and understand what the core

fundamentals are.

>> Oh, if the Fed becomes more influenced by the White House and if rate cut continues,

what side effects will there be? Like,

is there a price we might have to pay later on in the future?

Look, you could argue that imaginary 2%, which look, it never made sense to me, the imaginary 2%

number. I think it's one where

number. I think it's one where could you have inflation tick up? Yeah.

But to me, that's I I think that's sort of a side note. I think now is the time for the Fed to be aggressive cutting.

And I think it sets up for just an easing cycle and something that's bullish for AI revolution.

>> Now we've talked about the macro economy. Let's go into some specific

economy. Let's go into some specific enterprises.

Let's talk about the king of AI, Nvidia.

We saw this huge news. US conditionally

approved the exports of Nvidia's H200 chips to China. But frankly, the signals are messy. Like some reports claim China

are messy. Like some reports claim China doesn't even need these chips anymore.

And yet news broke that tech giants like Alibaba expeditantly asked for them to have the chips. And on top of that,

there's this heavy burden of facing 25% cost on these sales. Thinking of all these noises and cost hurdles, do you

still view the China re-entry as a genuine second win that pushes Nvidia further growth?

>> Look, Nvidia needs access to the China market. It's not just about 20 billion

market. It's not just about 20 billion per year. It's about by Nvidia not

per year. It's about by Nvidia not having access to that market whether it's H200's or other restricted chips call restricted blackwell chip that

maybe we see in part of negotiations it it it makes Huawei and domestic that much more powerful. Now, I can tell you from my conversation, all the work that

we've done throughout Asia, like big China tech, there's one chip in the world they want. It's from the Godfather Bay Jensen and

>> would you rather have a Michelin restaurant food or fast food?

you'd rather. So the point is it comes down to like Nvidia even the older chips are years ahead of what China has

>> and I think Beijing recognizes the disparity.

>> But both sides need Nvidia to sell into China because I think it's an arms race and the US that's the biggest chip in

the table. Why at this point did Trump

the table. Why at this point did Trump allow this?

>> Because Trump recognizes that by not allowing Nvidia selling to China, it gives China tech the ability to narrow

the gap and eventually China will, you know, they'll get used to an environment without Nvidia chip. And

that's something you don't want. You

want Nvidia, you want AMD to sell into that market. So that's why I think there

that market. So that's why I think there was this like push and pull between national security but and I think Jensen himself will talk about it like you know you want to sell

into one of the biggest and best economies in the world in China >> but when I see the stocks moving it's

not moving as fast upward as expected with the news >> how do you expect the further stock prices?

Well, I think but investors are cautious optimistic because you know always afraid that China big brother is going to come in. There's going to be more and more noise.

>> It's not going to play out. There's

going to be a kind of like one step forward, two steps back. That's why the stocks have not maybe reacted >> to the level that you would have expected.

>> Oh. So would this be an opportunity to buy >> we view it as a golden opportunity to

own these names? I mean our view like the anytime you have selloffs like this they create the opportunities >> and I think it's very easy sometimes to

get caught up in some of the narratives >> but the reality is that this is very positive for US big tech and for the first time in 30 years the US is ahead

of China when it comes to big tech >> but some are saying that do China really want this H200 China big tech wants it. The government

might not want it, >> but their biggest tech companies, their robotics companies, China tech world wants Nvidia chips.

And at the end of the day, >> they're going to get them one way or another. And that's my view for what I

another. And that's my view for what I view as a stock that's a $240 $250 stock in terms of where I think it should ultimately trade. So right now it feels

ultimately trade. So right now it feels like Nvidia is the only game in town.

But then when I look aside, Google is running fast with its TPUs and they h have this massive data advantage. So the

big question would be when we sit down for an interview in 2026, will we still be talking about Nvidia as the number one player or is there a

chance that a player like Google could overtake them?

>> Yeah, there's a better chance of me playing in the NBA and Google taking over. Look, we'll be sitting here in 2030.

>> Yeah. and Nvidia will be number one chip in the world. Now, will there be others that benefit? Huawei, AMD, big tech

that benefit? Huawei, AMD, big tech players use a Google, Microsoft, Meta, build their own chips, of course. But

Nvidia is years ahead any other player.

But it does speak to like why we're so bullish on Google because that's just another opportunity from a TPU perspective. Mhm.

>> That adds to the story.

>> Some say that in order to make and expand this ecosystem, Nvidia is deliberately allowing Google to come up and other companies to come up to make

it much more bigger. The ecosystem

>> demand to supply for Nvidia chips are 12 to1.

>> Oh, >> so the point is there's not enough Nvidia chips.

>> Mhm.

>> To supply the market.

So, so which all speaks to why Nvidia com you know they congratulate Google and you know their successes whatever you need look it's the Apple philosophy

like when Apple when you go back to like iPhones you needed others to make smartphones.

>> Yeah.

>> You can't just be the only one. I think

that's and that's exactly the right philosophy. M.

philosophy. M.

>> So they're opening the market to grow the pie.

>> Well, it's to grow the pie, but to make sure that it stays healthy.

>> Oh, >> and to make sure that the demands there.

And I and I think that's extremely important as it all plays out.

>> You know what? I actually have Google and I don't have Nvidia. People like me, then it seems like I need to sell off my Google and buy Nvidia with that money.

No, I wouldn't say I would just I would just because I am a big believer in I think it's more you know it speaks like

my ETF you need to have pieces I think you need to own but you own Nvidia on selloffs these where the stock so I think that there's opportunities that

continue to play out and to me the sell-offs create the golden buying opportunities.

>> Yeah.

>> Let's move on to Tesla.

Recently, we've seen some high-profile moves on Wall Street. Even Kathy Wood, a longtime Tesla bull, has been trimming

her position, citing valuation concerns.

In contrast, you still seem to love Tesla. What do you see that they are

Tesla. What do you see that they are missing out? like are you confident that

missing out? like are you confident that Tesla is still the best in class or do you admit that other sectors might offer

a better short-term returns? look short

term I mean like you know obviously we talk about hypers scalers and you know other tech players but in terms of like Tesla autonomous robotics like that that's it's going to be the biggest

chapter in its history from a growth perspective so I think from like a physical AI perspective Nvidia and Tesla two best physical AI plays in the in the

world the reason I look at Tesla I'm not saying quarterto quarter maybe deliveries could low stock sells up. But

when I look at robo taxi and I look at the innovation that's happening there like in my view like Tesla base case 600 bull case $800 stock

>> it's just the beginning then >> it's just started yet >> it's just the beginning and I think you can't get caught up in

>> sometimes the nearterm dynamics could skew you think it's like if I thought about over the next like three years

>> and I could own one company like I to me Tesla is the one that I own over the next three years.

>> Oh, why is it three years?

>> Just take your spot like two, three years long term.

>> I'm looking forward to the era of FSD. I

know it's a robot.

>> Well, it's FSD. It's autonomous. It's

what I kind of view as like what I view as sort of physical AI. So,

in other words, a year from now, we're not going to be talking just about LM.

We're going to be talking about what I view as really physical AI, which is going to play a huge role in this.

>> I was just looking um Elon O just tweeted um OnX that talking about the AI5 that Tesla is nearing the tape out

of its AI5 inference chip.

>> Look, Tesla's going to play on that chip side as well. No,

>> but but but it speaks to where there's all big tech. They're going to build out their own infrastructures, but right now there's only one phone call that you can make to get chips,

>> and that guy's wearing a black leather jacket.

>> He's the godfather and his name is Jensen.

>> I should have worn a black leather jacket.

>> I know. I thought you gonna also maybe even wear a little more color today, but who knew, you know? Ah, I know I was,

but then I just took it off. Okay, so

talking about Tesla and it reminded of Elon was saying that he's going to IPO Space X.

>> Do you have any views on that?

>> Yeah, I mean like look, I and I think Tesla will ultimately have owners some sort of ownership of SpaceX. Oh,

>> just like just like they'll have some sort of ownership of XAI.

>> Yeah.

>> Because my view is like Tesla eventually becomes almost like a holding structure for all Mus initiatives, you know, and that and that's also why it was so important that like Musk got the pay

package >> because of what this means for, you know, you need a wartime CEO. You need

Musk laser focused. I think SpaceX is just part of the broader ecosystem >> that that Musk has created.

>> When it actually IPOs, will you buy SpaceX? Are you on the buy side as well?

SpaceX? Are you on the buy side as well?

>> Yeah. I mean I look to me SpaceX anthropic XAI open AI >> right >> like I'm not saying what those stocks

going to do in the next 3 6 months like once they go public but I don't see as a disruptive technology investor fourth industrial revolution

how you cannot own those names. So up to now we've talked about SpaceX going public and we have to talk about Oracle as well. You mentioned it at the

as well. You mentioned it at the beginning of the interview and the market viewed this earning report as a key indicator for the AI boom but the

result was shocking. Shares tanked 10% right after the bell.

Then how should we interpret this? Is

this like a warning sign for the entire AI industry or is this just a Oracle specific issue that we don't

>> see I have a totally different view like my view is like the stock should be up not down because look RPO

>> backlog from a from an AI perspective I kind of view that as the best barometer that was 10% above the street you look at the amount of RPO that they've added I mean obviously It was over 300 billion last quarter the open they add 69

billion >> two quarters ago they added 8 billion 33 2 billion if you go back four quarters ago you can't look at this stock

>> in terms of what growth is over the next one two quarters I mean to give you example like the next three years growth's going to go from like 17%

>> revenue growth to 33% to 45% as they convert backlog That's the best way to think about the stock in my opinion.

>> I think the market was worrying about the depth and even though they are earning a lot of money, they're also spending a lot of money and the high

depth levels triggered the selloff. Is

the depth issue? Okay. But see, I don't I view it as like they're going to need probably a lot less than 100 billion of debt >> and relative to the overall market opportunity,

it's small. Like,

it's small. Like, >> so what they're going to need to service the capex >> that's a high class problem. Like I'm

not concerned about what that means in terms of Open AI as a customer, the debt load.

You're talking about fourth industrial revolution. Like Oracle

revolution. Like Oracle >> has the backlog, has a demand, and they're going to do what they need to do to fill it.

>> So the stock was weighed down by the debt, but we don't really have to worry about that.

Look, I'm not saying it's not something that you have to you have to focus on it, >> but I think it's very easy in these markets to get caught up in

what I kind of view as like near term issues.

>> Oh, >> that skew the longer term perspective. I mean, to me, that's re that's really the focus.

>> Okay. So today we've covered an incredible amount of ground with D I

as we approach to the end of the year and looking forward to next year. Do you

have any special messages for investors?

>> Look, it's 10:30 p.m. in this AI party.

>> Party start at 9:00 p.m. It goes to 4:00 a.m. But is that me and you have talked

a.m. But is that me and you have talked about there's going to be glass on the dance floor. DJ styles playing music.

dance floor. DJ styles playing music.

Cops come to the party, people going to think parties, you know, ending. Bears

watch the party through the windows from the outside.

>> You're going to have a bull market in 2026 that continues with the air revolution trade spreading. Mhm.

>> These white knuckle moments, we'll have more of them, but they create the opportunities to own the winners, but you need strong hands, and you cannot

get caught up in maybe some of the near-term bearish market narratives that will take hold from time to time.

>> Okay, Dan, thank you once again.

>> No, thanks for it's always so fun, you being with you on 3PO and talking to everyone and look forward to an exciting on 26.