Worst CRASH Since 2008 Ahead, Then '$20k Gold, $500 Silver': David Hunter

Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in

the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is February 18th, 2026 and

Day. Today is February 18th, 2026 and I'm thrilled to be joined by David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors with over five

decades of experience on Wall Street.

David reiterates his call for a global bust worse than the Great Depression that will result in an 80% drop in the broad market, followed by a commodity

super cycle unlike anything the world has ever seen with price targets of $20,000 for gold and $500 for silver.

Numbers David admits could be much too low for the ultrainflationary environment that will follow the bust.

David also gives his take on Kevin Worsh as the new Fed chair, where the US dollar is headed, his thoughts on the current state of the US and global economy, and so much more. So, strap

yourselves in for my conversation with David Hunter. David Hunter, it is great

David Hunter. David Hunter, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I

want to kick things off with discussing the broad market and where we currently stand in your call for a blowoff top followed by a global bus. This is

something we've discussed several times on the show in the past, but I'm wondering where we sit today cuz we have seen the broad market continue to creep up. Are we getting close to that event

up. Are we getting close to that event in your view or do you think there's a way to go yet before we do see that inevitable large correction?

>> Yeah. Hi Jesse, thanks for having me on.

Um, I am still very bullish. I think we have just completed a highle consolidation that goes back to late October. So, it was kind of, you know,

October. So, it was kind of, you know, very much in a trading range for quite a while here. Um, I thought there might be

while here. Um, I thought there might be a chance of get down towards 6,700. It

got down under 68 a couple times and and basically triple bottomed here. And I

think I think today is a sign that we have completed that consolidation. You

know, it can always go back into it.

It's not a guarantee, but but I think there's a pretty good chance we completed it. And when I look at a lot

completed it. And when I look at a lot of sector work, when I look at the market, I think we're off to the races from here on. Um there's there's some

things that can obviously crop up like uh Iran or um you know some of the issues with what the government's doing uh you know with with ICE etc. But I

think really the market is telling me when I look at it that this thing's off to the races from here. So I think the next few months is going to be very strong market. So if you were deploying

strong market. So if you were deploying capital in the market today, you would actually be sticking to the big indices, the the larger tech stocks, that sort of thing. You think that that has a lot

thing. You think that that has a lot more room to run and and a followup to that, what signs will you be looking for when it's starting to roll over and perhaps it's time to get out? Yeah,

actually we have and obviously it's been the narrative of this year so far is that there's been rotation out of tech and into uh a much broader uh uh part of

the market. Um and I think that's still

the market. Um and I think that's still going to be the case or still going to be part of the story. I think tech will will rejoin the rally. You know, it

spent again since last last fall, it spent this time consolidating.

uh there's been big sell-offs in software for example and and some of the you know the mag 7 but frankly I think that was just after such a strong run it

needed a rest and it had you know needed to do more than go sideways so tech stood out as having corrected but I don't think it's that they've topped I think they are going to join back in and

be a very much an outperformer or a big part of this rally but at the same time and I've been calling for this for a couple years. Um I think the small caps

couple years. Um I think the small caps are have have broken out. Um and I think you're going to see actually small caps

outperform even the tech probably. So um

I raised targets uh back last fall back in October when I put out my fourth quarter letter uh and I raised the Russell index the Russell 2000 index

from 3,400 to 3,800.

So from here that's probably 45% something like that. Um, when you do my numbers on the NASDAQ, which I raised to 32,000,

um, that's probably something just over 40%. And S&P, same thing. So S&P, my

40%. And S&P, same thing. So S&P, my target now is 9,500.

Uh, so we're talking about, you know, between 40 and 50% returns. And in some of the sectors, it looks like you could even uh outdo that. So, so I think

you're looking at a very strong finish to the first quarter and then you know second quarter.

>> And then in terms of your call on the aftermath when we do get to that point when the market rolls over, are you still targeting? I mean, last time we

still targeting? I mean, last time we spoke you said that there could be up to an 80% correction in the broad market at some point in time. Is that still your view today? Yeah, I still think this is

view today? Yeah, I still think this is a final run in a 43-year uh secular bull market that I think is going to go parabolic if these numbers are correct

and that happens by summer. You know,

that's a very steep run uh probably historic run. Um and so I do think

historic run. Um and so I do think there's still a good chance and I, as you probably see on Twitter, I get plenty of criticism for constantly pushing out the the time, you know, or

the market pushes it out and I just go with it. Um, but I, you know, I still

with it. Um, but I, you know, I still think there's a good chance we top out in the first half of the year and it could spill beyond that, but something

like that with a um roll over into a bare market happening before the end of this year. So, you might, you know, the

this year. So, you might, you know, the top could be quick or the top might take a few months because tops are a process.

Um, and you may not really roll over until fall. Um, don't know. I mean, you

until fall. Um, don't know. I mean, you know, we'll have to wait and see, but I do think we're going to top this year. I

think we're going to see a global bust.

Very well could start in the fourth quarter or before. Um, I think we're, you know, you can look now and say the economy is strengthening. What are you talking about? But under the surface,

talking about? But under the surface, there's still signs that this thing is rolling over. What you've got going on

rolling over. What you've got going on is you've got an economy that's being boosted by all the industrial spending.

you know the the reshoring the you know the AI spend uh the building out of the grid the you know the data centers all of that that's taking up a lot of

obviously materials which materials is looking very good here and breaking out um but it's also you know other industrial companies Caterpillar things like that are very much beneficiaries of

some of that spending so so the industrial side of the economy is coming alive and looking pretty good um and that's really uh you know started late

last year, early this year and and um the consumer um is slowing. You know

there's still that have and have not economy where the the you know the bottom half of the consumer is kind of saying we're you know our discretionary income is very limited. We're just

getting by and then the upper half because their wealth is up so much from the market and still real estate still hanging in there. um that continues to

boost the economy. So when I look I mean I look today and uh things like airlines look very strong on the charts. Um even

consumer discretionary retail uh the retail um uh sector area the charts look fine. So it there's no sign here that

fine. So it there's no sign here that you know consumers rolling over so much that you're going to be um you shortcircuiting this thing right away.

That being said, I think we are seeing delinquencies up. We're seeing um you

delinquencies up. We're seeing um you know some issues with the consumer. Uh

that that will come but probably not until summer or beyond.

>> Yeah. And I'm wondering that kind of dubtales into my next question about the economy in the US right now because there's those in the camp that we're headed for a major recession up ahead.

Some who say we're already in one and that it hasn't been like declared officially and then others who say economic growth actually looks strong up ahead and they don't see any argument

for uh your your outline your case for a global bust. How are you viewing the

global bust. How are you viewing the economy specifically in in the US? You

outlined a little bit of it there, but perhaps you could expand on that for us.

>> Sure. Yeah. I what I found over many years is that when they go back and backdate the economy, you know, the recessions, it almost always has started

before we we had thought it was when we were, you know, at that time. Uh the

NBER doesn't date it until after the fact. So after the recession is over,

fact. So after the recession is over, they'll go back and tell you when it began. And it's a there's a decent

began. And it's a there's a decent chance that it may have already begun.

Uh again, we're it's it's confusing because you you have GDP, you know, um was actually had a a number that was

above 5%. It's been revised

above 5%. It's been revised back under four. But, you know, 4% GDP is a strong number. So, you say, how can you be talking that we might even be in

a recession? But again it goes back to

a recession? But again it goes back to that the segments of the economy and statistically GDP may not be the best measure given the have and have not

economy. Uh so I think in it's more

economy. Uh so I think in it's more nuanced probably that maybe statistically we're not in recession yet but there are plenty of signs that you know certain subsets of the economy are

in recession already. Um and and you know again a global bust is uh a bad recession. You know uh an extreme

recession. You know uh an extreme recession coupled with a financial crisis of historic proportions. Um 20089

is probably the closest thing we've had to a bust in the last 90 years. Um but

this one I think could be worse than that from a from a crisis standpoint.

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Make sure to tell him of course that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Yeah, I've heard some other people echo your sentiments, particularly as you mentioned, it's been

over 40 years that we've been in a bull market according to to many. And during

that time, we obviously saw very low interest rates, near zero interest rates. That has changed. Trump now wants

rates. That has changed. Trump now wants interest rates lowered again. The new

Fed chair he's installing, Kevin Worsh, is known to be a hawk, but yet Trump has been going after Powell for not lowering interest rates. So, I'm wondering how

interest rates. So, I'm wondering how you see all of that playing out. Do you

think Trump is going to get his wish and and what would the implications of that be of of lowering interest rates from here on on the economy and financial markets?

>> Yeah, it's this is one of the areas where I take issue with Trump. People

who follow me know I'm pretty much a Trump supporter. Believe in the policies

Trump supporter. Believe in the policies that he's he's pursuing um from from deregulation to um you know closing the border obviously things like that. But

but I I think the one area where I disagree with him or think that he's kind of wasting capital is in the argument over the Fed. I have said for a very long time interest rates are

determined by the bond market not by the Fed. You know the Fed control overnight

Fed. You know the Fed control overnight rates and of course the Fed's sentiments do sway market from day to day and and beyond. Um, but ultimately it's really

beyond. Um, but ultimately it's really the bond market that leads on rates and the Fed follows. And so I'm not worried about whether, you know, who's Fed chairman. I really don't think it may be

chairman. I really don't think it may be a question of some timing. One, you

know, Powell might be slower to do it than Worsh. And I I was not a one of

than Worsh. And I I was not a one of those that bought into the narrative that, you know, what's Trump doing? He

he wants to get rid of Pal and then he brings in a hawk. If you listen to Kevin Worsh right after he got uh chosen, uh he did a few interviews and he explained

pretty clearly, I thought, his belief that if you have good productivity um and you know, inflation is under

control. It's a mistake to be tightening

control. It's a mistake to be tightening policy or or run a restrictive policy just because the economy is running hotter or running strong. And so he's

very much in the camp that says we can lower rates as long as inflation's under control. Um where I think there may be

control. Um where I think there may be an issue is he wants to bring down the balance sheet. You know we we went from

balance sheet. You know we we went from as I remind people we were 875 billion in a in a Fed balance sheet in 2008 before the crisis. You know in October 2008 that was the size of the balance

sheet and largest it had been since uh 1913 when it when the Fed came into being. We went from 875

being. We went from 875 um to well there were 3.7 trillion increased you know in response to 20089

and then uh you know another 5 trillion in the pandemic. We got up to 9 trillion on the balance sheet. We're down now to 6465 trillion and Kevin Worsh

probably rightfully so says you know we we went crazy. You know we we blew up the balance sheet. we should over time bring that balance sheet back down into

normaly. That's nice to say and I

normaly. That's nice to say and I understand where he's coming from and you know theoretically I agree with it.

The problem is if we're heading for a global bust. I think that balance she's

global bust. I think that balance she's going to end up at 30 trillion not not down at three or four. You know he may have the intention to do that. I don't

think the economy is going to ever allow that. I think he's and it won't be

that. I think he's and it won't be because he wants to blow it up. He'll

probably be reluctant uh during the early stages of the bust, but the bust is going to dictate that the only really the only thing you can do when you have

a free falling financial system around the globe is move money into the system quickly because you know fiscal policy doesn't move that quickly. Isn't going

to solve that problem. And so every central bank's going to be pumping money like crazy. If you asked them today,

like crazy. If you asked them today, there's not a central banker that would think that's the case. If you asked, you know, most economists, they wouldn't think that's going to be the case. It's

it's some it's not on people's radar, but once their deer in headlights moment comes where they're looking and go, "Oh my god, we got to save the system." It's

going to take a lot of money to do that because they'll they'll be slow and reacting as they always are. And

probably slower this time because of 20089. you know, everybody from Wall

20089. you know, everybody from Wall Street to Fed uh members to, you know, virtually all economists and and uh

strategists would say we don't want to go back there. You know, zero uh zero interest rates was a very bad policy.

You've heard Paul say that. You've heard

um Paul say I'm you never going back to that um you know QE levels again. Uh and

and Wall Street pretty much agrees with that. So, they're all in in agreement

that. So, they're all in in agreement that we shouldn't do what we're going to have to do. They just don't realize yet that they're going to have to do it.

>> I want to get your thoughts on the incredible run in both gold and especially silver over the last several months with the metal screaming to new all-time highs before a fairly steep correction, especially for silver. It

fell actually 26% in a single trading day. However, gold is already back above

day. However, gold is already back above $5,000 as we speak. Silver up above $75 an ounce. How do you see the price

an ounce. How do you see the price action in both metals playing out from here and and into this global bust?

>> Sure. Um, you know, because we haven't talked in a little while. Uh, last

October I raised my um silver target um to 125 and it had been, you know, I had been 75 for a long time. I raised it to

100. I can't remember exactly when and

100. I can't remember exactly when and then last October I raised it to 125.

gold I raised um from 4,000 to 5,000 and then in October raised it to 5,500 um and you know um was obviously very

bullish. This last selloff that you just

bullish. This last selloff that you just mentioned um I raised my gold target 6,800 after the selloff. I mean I didn't do it ahead of the sell off. I I called

I actually called the sell off. I was on a podcast the day before it started rolling over and said you could see a 30% sell off in silver and maybe 10 to

15 um in gold. And then when we got it, I said that's cleared the air for another big advance. As much as it was parabolic in silver, I I didn't react to

it the way so many did as this is the top. And I raised my silver target to

top. And I raised my silver target to 180. Uh and I think you could see that

180. Uh and I think you could see that by summer. Um I raised my gold target

by summer. Um I raised my gold target 6,800 as I said. So so I'm extremely bullish. I think you are seeing you know

bullish. I think you are seeing you know it it uh corrected a little bit here recently uh and the miners too. And I I think well obviously we we're still

dealing with the selloff so it kind of went down came back up some went down some back down some and now I think we're ready to go. So, so I think you're going to see that run to 180 in silver

very quickly here in the next, you know, 3 to 6 months. Um, and gold to 6,800.

Um, you know, there's I I was always pretty much the high on the street in these things. Um, more recently,

these things. Um, more recently, um, you know, I think there's a couple people, Michael Oliver, I guess, and and I think his first name, um, is talking,

you know, 300, 400, 500 silver. And I

have that out there late late this decade, early early next. I don't think you get it this cycle. And but I do think after what we've just witnessed and what I think we're about to witness

that 500 for me is probably a very low estimate for you know the late 20s and uh early 2030s. Um they'll probably have to raise that but I just don't I could

be wrong but I that'd be quite a run to see that happen this year.

>> Well you mentioned the miners. I'd love

to get your thoughts there on both the gold and silver mining sector.

Obviously, a lot of these companies look pretty undervalued when we consider the value of the ounces they're either producing or if they're in the development stage, the price of the ounces that they have in the ground. We

have seen both sectors run, but they have so far not really provided that massive leverage on the gold and silver price that many have expected. I've

spoken to some people who think even the big producers at these levels are fairly undervalued given the price of gold. Um,

how are you viewing the the gold and silver mining sector right now?

>> Yeah, it's interesting. I get a lot on on X um people complaining about silver miners or the gold miners. Um, and I remind them that many of them, if you

look at them, have tripled off the bottoms or some more than that. So, it's

it's a little hard to be disappointed with them, but I I get it on the base of where silver and gold have done have gone. Yeah. You know, they're still in

gone. Yeah. You know, they're still in catch-up mode. And I do think um we're

catch-up mode. And I do think um we're going to see that in the next 3 to 6 months. I again at the same time I raise

months. I again at the same time I raise silver and gold. I I raised my targets on my you know I I uh target GDX, GDXJ,

SIL and SILJ as as proxies for the miners. My GDX number I've raised that

miners. My GDX number I've raised that to uh I got to remember these because I've been raising things so quickly. Um,

the GTX I raised uh to 180 from 150. I

I'd raised it from I think 100 to one 50 back in October and then this most recent increase I increased it to 180.

My GDXJ uh was 210 last October. I've raised

that to 250 and that was up from, you know, was a $100 target, you know, less than a year ago. Um, SEL I have at 220

now. It had been 180 and that had been

now. It had been 180 and that had been raised from 150. Um, and SILJ is now 90 up from 75. So, and that had been raised

from uh, you know, for for the longest time for many years I had a 35 target when silver was down at single digits or SILJ was down at single digits and people were questioning and I was even

questioning are you going to get to 35?

And now, you know, my target's 90. So,

and again, these are not targets for two years from now. This is this year and probably this summer. Um, so I think we're in for that catch-up rally that everybody's kind of been waiting on. And

my just based on what I see today, I think we may be just beginning.

>> And how much credence do you give to the narrative out there that gold is becoming money again, is becoming the new world's reserve asset? Because

obviously we are seeing countries like China, Russia and others quietly divesting themselves of US treasuries in favor of holding physical gold. A lot of people of course point to the seizing of

of Russian FX reserves when they invaded Ukraine or started their special military operation depending on on uh which which media headline you want to go with. Um and and they looked at many

go with. Um and and they looked at many people have looked at that as kind of the catalyst that caused central banks and governments around the world to say, "Wait a minute, maybe we can't just be holding treasuries if they can freeze it

at any point." Um what is your view on that whole narrative surrounding gold becoming money, gold becoming the new reserve asset?

>> Yeah, there's no question that we have that whole um narrative about the bricks to going to gold back currency so they can kind of subvert the dollar. And so I

think that it all is kind of the same big picture of um you know the other th those that are on the other side of of the US wanting to see the dollar

dominant stop. You know that we've it's

dominant stop. You know that we've it's funny because we years ago decided rather than military action, we can do things with sanctions and with our strength as a reserve currency. we can

do a lot and obviously when when you bully people financially they start trying to figure out ways to get around that and and ways to uh you know prevent you from doing that. So so I think

that's really a lot of what you're seeing certainly from China and Russia and and the bricks etc. Um I think there's more than that obviously for

gold. gold is um some of it is uh kind

gold. gold is um some of it is uh kind of catch up on all that money printing that we talked about over the last decade. Um some of it is there's a lot

decade. Um some of it is there's a lot of lot of stuff going out on out there geopolitically. Uh not just not just

geopolitically. Uh not just not just Ukraine, you know, it's uh Iran's obviously there. There's a lot of just a

obviously there. There's a lot of just a lot of um um instability in the world. Even though

I mean I think Trump is doing a lot to try to calm things down. It may not seem like it while you're in the midst of it, but I think we're moving more that direction than the other, but still while you're doing it, it does feel like

there's a lot of turmoil out there that you got to guard against. There's

there's so much out there in terms of um um the political battles and the you know the new world order things and stuff. So, I think that all goes into

stuff. So, I think that all goes into the pot for for gold. And obviously,

debt's through the roof. And there's a lot of people saying, "I want gold." You

know, if if we're going to just continue to expand money and continue to expand debt, um, you know, I I've got to have something that's, you know, gives me

grounding in in terms of what can can offset that. So, so I think that's all

offset that. So, so I think that's all there. I am not in the camp that thinks

there. I am not in the camp that thinks we're imminently close to a reset or imminently close to the dollar losing its reserve status. You know, we're

still in the I think mid 80s or high 80s in terms of the you know trade that's done with the dollar. So, as much as it's m they're making inroads and it's

coming down a little bit, it's not. I am

however a bear on the dollar and have used had an 82 target out there for a long time and I think we could see that this year. Um so I am in you know it's

this year. Um so I am in you know it's DXY so I am in the camp that thinks the dollar is going to uh come down a lot here and and that will certainly boost that narrative that you know gold's the

only game in town and you know you need to have a hard currency. Um, but I think on the other side of that, when we get the bust, the dollar could go from 82 to

120 and we're right back in this the other side of that story. So, so I'm not in the camp says reset or, you know, gold back currency is going to be the

thing going forward. That may happen, but it's probably still many years off.

Um, you know, I I we won't get into it here. here. I don't think we have time,

here. here. I don't think we have time, but I have a view that out of the bust because of all the money printing, you'll have a very inflationary uh recovery cycle. I mean very

inflationary where the US could see 25% inflation and and then with the debt we have in the system and again not just

here around the world um it will lead to I think um a collapse of of the system we've lived under for you know certainly

the last h 100red years 90und years um so we could see something worse than great depression uh drawn out uh and truly a collapse of of the financial

system around the world in there.

Anything could come out of that.

Hopefully, it'd be, you know, it' be something like a goldbacked currency and more, you know, starting fresh and more more stability. Uh, and cuz we've spent,

more stability. Uh, and cuz we've spent, I call this, you know, the last we're in the last decade of super cycle, what I define as the long cycle between two

depressions, the 1930s and what I think will be the mid 2030s. So it's a basically a hundredyear cycle. Um and uh

it's also what I think from post great depression every cycle we've ratcheted up more. It's taken you know it's taken

up more. It's taken you know it's taken more we've cranked it up. You've gotten

inflation and initially it didn't take that much to crank it down. Each

successive cycle it's gotten more extreme. So now we're at the point

extreme. So now we're at the point where, you know, the the ups are are more extreme and what it takes to bring the inflation down or bring the system

back down into order, they overshoot and it's a bigger um event like the bust would be. So I think we're at that point

would be. So I think we're at that point where we're in the last decade of that super cycle. We're also at the end of

super cycle. We're also at the end of what I call uh an 8090 year Ponzi scheme because of all the you know each successive cycle the debt just went

higher and higher and higher and now it's ex it's accelerating at a much more at a much steeper rate.

>> Well, let's talk about some other commodities uh both pre and postbust.

Anything else that's on your radar?

We've talked about a lot of it on this show before, but just to reiterate and to see if any of your calls have changed. Um, could you talk about oil,

changed. Um, could you talk about oil, uh, natural gas, any of the base metals, and any of the other commodities that are currently on your radar and how you see them performing both into the bust and afterwards?

>> Sure. Let's start with copper. Copper

looks great here. Um, I have an $8 target for copper. Um, and I think it's now, you know, it's under six, 570 or something like that. So, uh, it it got

up, um, to six, backed off all the way back to three something, I think, and is running again. I think you can see $8

running again. I think you can see $8 this year. Uh, that's my pre-bust

this year. Uh, that's my pre-bust target. I think in the bust, again, a

target. I think in the bust, again, a bust is going to be a really tough global economy. You could see copper

global economy. You could see copper fall all the way to, you know, two or three dollars, maybe even below that. Um

and and then postbust I wouldn't be surprised to see copper at $20 or higher. Um because again with all that money printing with all the

reshoring we're going to do with you know all the um um expansion and and due to AI etc. Commodities are going to be in demand everywhere. It's going to be

so-called commodity super cycle. You

know something bigger than we've ever seen in commodities. prices will go the through the roof in most commodities, including egg. Um, that doesn't

including egg. Um, that doesn't necessarily fit that part of the story, but I think you're going to see all that money is just going to flow through to inflation and and demand for commodities

ultimately. So, by, you know, by the

ultimately. So, by, you know, by the early 2030s, copper could be north of 20. Um, oil could be $500.

20. Um, oil could be $500.

uh natural gas, pick a number, but I think you could see natural gas down to a dollar in the bus and then be $50 or more in at the, you know, in the early

2030s. So, I think we're going to see

2030s. So, I think we're going to see something. It's it's I lived through I

something. It's it's I lived through I was a, you know, portfolio manager back in in the early 1980s. this will surpass that and but it will be very similar in

terms of you know commodities will be will be the story and we are getting obviously a mini version of that now I mean commodities are coming alive here materials are waking up you know

starting to move up so we're getting but this is not it's not a straight line from here to there you've got that bust in between that'll take prices back down and then from a much bigger hole it'll

be an amazing run so certainly the base metals you know, um you'll see it in in all the metals. I think you'll see it in steel, you'll see it in pretty much all

commodities that are going to be uh out there. So, um the the tech commodity is

there. So, um the the tech commodity is obviously semiconductors. I just, you

obviously semiconductors. I just, you know, I don't know how how to read that one because tech is not going to be what it is this cycle. next cycle it will, you know, there'll be there'll be

pockets of tech that'll do well, but tech's going to be like it was in the uh following the, you know,.com boom is going to go through and from a stock standpoint going to go through a a

period of distribution where every time it lifts a head, there's another group of sellers because they were overowned.

You they got they were the they were the winners of this cycle. Every time you go to a new cycle, there's new leadership.

So semis may be the exception of that.

There may be just so much demand that they have the pricing flexibility cuz that's the key of the next cycle that because of inflation going to 25% and

interest rates going to the high teens or 20. Um, it's going to mean that

or 20. Um, it's going to mean that you've got to be in stocks who can produce earnings that have pricing power, can produce earnings that exceed

inflation and also exceed interest rates because your your P multiples are going to be shrinking as rates go up, you know, the market multiple goes down, PE multiples go down. So, unless you can

produce earnings at a much rapid or much more rapid pace, um, you're not going to be able to keep pace with inflation. So

those that are for you know since the mid 80s it's been a great strategy to own an index fund and just leave it there. You know if you listen to the

there. You know if you listen to the mantra from Wall Street from uh the financial folks you know financial adviserss it's timing the market not

timing the market from the mid80s till now that's been the mantra and it's been absolutely correct going forward from middle of this year I think it's timing

the market not timing the market because you're like it like you said before I I do believe we could see an 80% decline in the in the market that means there'll be more that'll there'll be some that'll

exceed that and you know some that'll be under that but on average the indexes could fall 80%.

>> And before I do let you go uh I don't think you mentioned it price targets for gold and silver postbust.

>> Yeah postbust my uh gold target and this is probably early 2030s is 20,000 and that looked great when gold was you know

2,000 or 3,000. Now that it's run up here and may run up to 7,000 or close to 7,000 this cycle, 20 doesn't seem like a long shot anymore. It looks pretty

reasonable. I think the likelihood is

reasonable. I think the likelihood is that 20 is going to have to be bumped up. You know, that that may be way short

up. You know, that that may be way short of where it ultimately goes. Silver, um,

I have a target of 500. I I am almost sure that that's going to prove too low, but I haven't changed it yet. But

that's, you know, those those have been my long-term targets for, you know, several years.

>> Great. Well, David, thank you so much for coming on the show. Tell us about Contrarian Macro Advisors and how people can sign up for that service.

>> Sure. Yeah, I've I've been writing uh a quarterly investment letter since the year 2000, I think. Uh it originally was an institutional letter that I u put out

quarterly and and for institutional clients. Um, I probably four years ago,

clients. Um, I probably four years ago, four or five years ago, uh, yeah, I guess it was at least 5 years ago. Now,

time's flying by. Um, I started offering it to retail and now it's, you know, very much a retail letter as well. It

hasn't changed. I I write pretty, you know, I speak pretty plainly, write pretty plainly. So, retail people tell

pretty plainly. So, retail people tell me anyway. They say it's very readable

me anyway. They say it's very readable and understandable for them. So, I I do put out that quarterly letter by subscription. If people have an interest

subscription. If people have an interest in it, they can uh send me a message via chat X chat. Um chat's become

problematic for me because it's not functioning all that well, but uh it's still working where I can get those messages in one way or another, exchange, uh information with people if

they're interested. So, so if you're if

they're interested. So, so if you're if you're interested in it, just send a a direct message to me via chat.

>> Great. Well, I'll put a link in the description to your ex profile so people can go ahead and send you a message there. David, as always, fantastic

there. David, as always, fantastic conversation. Thank you so much for

conversation. Thank you so much for coming on the show.

>> Yeah, thanks. Yes, he

>> Thank you for joining us today. The

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