YouTube Video

Welcome to the Masamara podcast from the Second Nature Initiative. We're

delighted to have Neil Smogensson with us today from the Mara Predator program.

Um, and uh, Neil, you tell us about yourself. I'm sure some people will have

yourself. I'm sure some people will have heard about you and the the program, but for those who don't, what are you all about and and how did you get to be living there in the Masamara?

Yeah, thanks Steve and and thanks for having me on the show. Uh yeah, so my name is Niels and I've been working within the Mara since 2010. Uh and

before that I I I I came to the Mara in in 20 2005 and six where I did my uh my field work or field work for my degree

in biology. Um and then after that I

in biology. Um and then after that I knew I had to come back uh to the Mara uh which is my big passion. Um the Mara

and the big cats. Uh so I came back in in 2010. Uh I started my own small-cale

in 2010. Uh I started my own small-cale line project in one of the conservies that just started. Um and I was just by myself. So that was quite tough. I had

myself. So that was quite tough. I had

to pay everything or fund all my own activities. Um so it wasn't sustainable.

activities. Um so it wasn't sustainable.

And then I was very fortunate that at Kenya Trust they came along in 2013 and they wanted this large scale line project and large scale cheetah project

and because they knew me and they knew I was working within the area they asked if I wanted to join and and for me that was a no-brainer because they had money for for a small salary and they had

money to cover my fuel cost and so forth. Uh so I I joined um and at that

forth. Uh so I I joined um and at that time I joined the thear line project um and then in 2018

uh kal trust or kt for short they merged the line and cheetah project into one mara conservation or mara predator conservation program and the reason

behind that was because we wanted to along the way include more predators and then rename it to a program uh because it's long-term And that was yeah in 2018 and then

that's is when I became uh in charge of the research and monitoring side of the program. And um so yeah so I've been

program. And um so yeah so I've been here ever since it started in 2013. Um

and besides the research side of it, we have a a quite a big community side and and and they work with obviously the local people uh mitigating conflicts,

creating awareness, educating uh and really are the key to make this whole thing work, right? Because well,

the people are the key, the local people are the key. And if they have negative attitudes and if they don't want, you know, predators, then then we might as well go home. So, so it's really

important obviously to to to to work with them. Um, but like I said, I I hit

with them. Um, but like I said, I I hit up the research site and for us we have some main objectives. Um, and and and

the first one is actually why we started in 2013 is to find out how many lines we have in the Maro ecosystem.

And when they started in in when we started in 2013, no one really knew about the status of of lion cheetahs, how many we had, how they were doing, if

they were increasing or decreasing, if they're healthy and and so forth. So we

set up to make a baseline study where we try to get this information which we did and then every year since that we are doing these annual surveys. So we update

the line and cheetah numbers or densities in the mara. Uh so we have this quite a big data set. Um and I believe it's the only kind of long-term

data set using these robust methods that we're using uh to capture the uh trends of of of these um predator species or

the the uh yeah the population trends of the predators.

Um and besides that we also have an objective that understands how these predators are using the area in time and space especially when they leave the

protected areas. So why are they

protected areas. So why are they leaving? What's happening to them? Um

leaving? What's happening to them? Um

how do we stop them from causing conflict? How do we stop people from

conflict? How do we stop people from retaliating and killing these predators?

Uh and so forth. And for that we use a GPS callers. Uh, and when we're out in

GPS callers. Uh, and when we're out in the field, we we collect uh not only data on predators, but we collect data on on livestock, on

tourism activities, on prey species. Um,

and this is all to find out what variables are potentially influencing lines and cases. Um, so yeah, we've been doing that since um 2013. So we have

quite a large data set where we can answer a lot of questions and um yeah so that's that that's basically in a nutshell what we do.

Yeah. Cool. And and fairly obviously judging by the canvas around you you're in the mar speaking to us as as we speak.

Yes. I'm sitting in our information center. Uh so we are at our headquarters

center. Uh so we are at our headquarters which we call uh the predator hub and uh this is our our main base. It's situated

quite in the middle of the system and this is from where we we we do our activities. This is where I spend uh

activities. This is where I spend uh time behind my computer trying to analyze data and ask questions and and

and publish papers um etc. and and when we do more remote kind of monitoring or the field team they go camping in in different areas. Uh so not to have this

different areas. Uh so not to have this massive drive where a drive back and and force and um I think fairly recently you published papers that was was

highlighting the the interactions between predators and cattle um and maybe you'd like to tell us a little bit about what the findings of that were.

Yeah. So I've published published a couple papers in recent times and one of them is is is looking at how um cattle

affect lines in these conservies. So in

the MAR conservies so maybe just giving a little bit background. So in in the MAR we have the national reserve and the Mar triangle which are fully protected.

Uh and then we have these adjoining mar conservenies which are uh the land is owned by by the Masai but then leased to tourism operators. Uh so

so they can have tourism for game viewing and then part of that money that income goes to pay for uh leasing the land um you know from from the local

people. So, so the local people they get

people. So, so the local people they get uh income every month from leasing land, but they also get a benefit where they are allowed to have their cattle graze during the daytime in the conservies

under a some form of management plan.

Um, and all conservies they well they don't have the same plan. So, it kind of differs from from one conservancy to the other. So I set out to find out how do

other. So I set out to find out how do these cows grazing legally during the daytime how does that affect lions

and the the short I mean in in the like in summary uh l so lions they try to avoid cows and and it's probably because associated with herders. So lions in the

daytime they see these herders coming in with their cows. So lions they avoid them they move. Um but not only that, they also lines avoid areas that have

been grazed for longer periods of time.

Um so it's really just displacement and then you can say okay well that that's that's good because you know then you avoid a lot of conflict if the lions move when these cows come in. Um but if

lions are being pushed into areas where you have other lines or other territorial lines you there could be a lot of conflict line conflict. uh they

can also lions can also be pushed into uh suboptimal habitats or areas where that's not really good for them to hide and and reproduce. So lions they

typically prefer these repairarian habitats during the daytime uh where they can hide and and um there's lots of also potential prey and where they can

produce cubs. uh but if they are pushed

produce cubs. uh but if they are pushed away from those areas into yeah areas that are not so good for that then that can also have consequences. So it's all about so we're not saying that livestock

grazing or cattle grazing in the conservative is a bad thing. We're just

saying that it just needs to be managed properly um and and doing a proper rotational gr plan where cows are moved around and not staying put grazing in an

area for longer periods of time. But but

if your findings are also that um lions avoid those areas even when the cattle have have been moved, wouldn't the implication for conservation of predators be quite a serious one in the

long run?

Yeah. So they so yeah they even when cattle move away they the lions tend to avoid those areas if they had been grazed for a longer period of time.

Right. So that's why it's important to have this uh rotational grazing where cows are not in the same area for longer periods of time because it's that it's that constant effect of having cows in

one area um that lines tend to avoid. Yeah.

And is there any evidence that you put your finger on about population trends?

Is it resulting in the conservances in a decline of lion numbers?

No, actually the the densities in the conservies are quite high. Uh so we're not um we're not seeing any effect right

now, but if it continues the way it is, there might be a potential future effect um online, especially if the prey start declining because right now the conservatives have a really high density

of of prey species because they've kind of all been squeezed in from the outside where there's no longer space for them, right? So um but but the question is how

right? So um but but the question is how long will this continue for? because

they are being really hammered by the predators, these prey. Uh so at some point there might be a chance that the prey are going to decline and that means that the predators will also decline.

Yeah. So then you might see a an effect of of this cattle grazing.

But it does seem on balance um that the conservies have been quite a good success story both for for tourism for the communities and of course for conservation.

Absolutely. Uh, for sure. And and these conservancies, my point of view, are very important for a buffer stone to the the national reserve. Um, and if you didn't have these conservies, you would probably have backto-back fences all the

way down to the reserve, excluding both wildlife and and a lot of um cattle.

Um but they do I think they do also give a kind of a false impression of of of the the prey situation for example because if you go to the conservies you

see like I said lots of prey right but but that is because yeah they've been squeezed from the outside so on an ecosystem level you actually see a

reduction in prey numbers and um and densities. Um, so there's nothing

densities. Um, so there's nothing outside and yet so they've all been squeezed in and and there's a big competition for grass now uh from the

from the prey and and the cows. Um so

you have these relatively smaller areas now that are really being um yeah hammered by both prey and livestock.

So it's the question is how long can this continue for in this state and how have your your research findings been um been received by the the wider

stakeholder community?

Um well it's been kind of a mixed uh yeah it's been kind of mixed. So a lot of uh a lot of well some man some conser well

we start with the conservancy managers.

Yes. Some are actually um you know see this as as as something positive or something they can use something that they can use to to change the kind the

way they manage their cows.

Um and and a lot of people from the outside also think it's um it's good it's a good study and and the findings

are are something that can be used um to to change things for the better. Um but

then you have local people who who think it's um actually this that thinks the study is rubbish, right?

because you do have, like I said before, still a good density of lines. So, you

don't see an immediate effect of of lines and uh and and they don't think that cows cause any issues. Um but the truth is that there are a lot of cows

and if you ask the conservancy managers and um other people they will tell you that it they have they've they're they're struggling trying to reduce number of cattle in the conservies

because without without rain like during droughts the grass gets depleted very quickly and and then you have a lot of cows dying and and um and then people no

longer will follow the rules because they're desperate for grass and they'll take their cows into areas that they're not supposed to. Um, so it's just number it's it's definitely a matter of numbers. Um,

numbers. Um, because the way things are now, my point of view, it's not sustainable.

Uh, so I mean we just been lucky the recent recent years that we have had a lot of rain, right? So we have had a lot of grass, but but as soon as the rain

stops, yeah, it it doesn't take long before grass gets gets finished quite quickly.

And of course, human interests and uh and cattle, which is a human interest, um tend to get political support rather more readily than wildlife.

Yeah. No, absolutely. It's it's the way of life for for the Masai, right? Um but

because of the because of the the situation Yeah. with

with the grains and the grass, I mean, there's just potential a potential for having a lot of livestock. Um but but then you can't have in the long term a

lot of prey as well, right? And a lot of predators. So it's just not the the

predators. So it's just not the the whole thing. Yeah. It's not sustainable.

whole thing. Yeah. It's not sustainable.

Has your research ventured at all into the impact of tourism on predators?

Yeah. So that was the the second study um that I that I did that was also recently published um looking at how tourism facilities affect lines. And the

reason behind that study was that we well the Mara is has a lot of turf camps and I would say there are way too many

church camps in the mara um and um as but you know this is no secret everybody can see that uh and then you since we started this study every year you see

more and more camps so it just increases every year and there's no really thought behind where you put them uh how big they are how close they out together and

and camps are often built in areas where lines they like to hide and reproduce.

So like the like I said before in these repairing habitats. So if you have nice

repairing habitats. So if you have nice repairing habitat close to water, you know, that's ideal place for a camp um but also an ideal place for lions. So

the question was, well, how does this or does this affect lions in any way? you

know, having these camps where lions like to stay. And the shorter answer is yes. So,

yes. So, you you you typically find the highest line densities in areas where there are no camps. Um but it's not saying that

no camps. Um but it's not saying that all camps are bad. It's it's actually showing that um if you have really high density camps, so that's either very big

camp or or many small camps put close together, uh that's what affects lines and that's where you find lower line densities. The lines can actually do

densities. The lines can actually do well with with smaller density camps or small or or or or yes, camps that are

smaller or spread far apart. Yeah.

Um so so so here the recommendation is when you do build a camp just well first of all make it small and also make sure that you're not close to anyone else and

try to avoid these habitats where lines they thrive. Um because tourism is

they thrive. Um because tourism is obviously important uh for lions and for wildlife in general and for the people um and and and uh and tourists they need

a place to stay. Yeah. uh but it can work right if we just think think about management um of camps and and regulations.

I think it's very helpful when you have hard scientific evidence on the ground that can can help in the design and layout and and management of of camps as

well as um the ecosystem itself. Um one

one just hopes that the the owners of those camps take heed rather than just bulldo their way through as of too often the case. Um what what about harassment

the case. Um what what about harassment by vehicles? Have you looked into that

by vehicles? Have you looked into that at all?

Yes. Uh for not for lines, but we did um a study led by one of our former um directors uh Dr. Fem Brook House uh

where where we looked at how uh mass tourism affects uh the basically how many cubs a cheetah mom can recruit to

adulthood or independence. And and uh the reason behind that study was that we saw in the national reserve where you have

unregulated mass tourism, you saw we saw cheetah moms uh maybe raising two sometimes three cubs to independence

or adulthood. And in the conservies

or adulthood. And in the conservies where you have regulated tourism uh they most of them they only allow five vehicles per sighting. we saw cheetah moms raising more cubs to independence.

All right.

So we thought probably yeah had to do with with number of vehicles. So so

that's so we did that study um and in a nutshell it actually shows quite clearly that there is a a a very clear negative

correlation between number of vehicles or tourism abundance and number of cubs a mother can raise to independence. Um

and and we're now trying to dig deeper into that and find out exactly what's happening. Um uh what are the what what

happening. Um uh what are the what what are the tourism what behavior is it the behavior the vehicles is it noise uh the distance and so forth. So we're trying

to look into this again just on a much finer scale.

Yeah. Yeah. Um yes I I think it's uh in everybody's interest that uh the the wildlife is not harassed but clearly that and and for Kenya's and the

Masimara's own benefit it generates such negative publicity globally um that that you know there needs to be much greater clarity over the the need for tour

operators and the driver guides to to behave themselves and to stick with like you say you know five at a time and no more. Um but it seems to be a struggle

more. Um but it seems to be a struggle to to get that to be accepted and even harder to be enforced.

Yeah. Uh it's very uh it's very difficult uh to it's to have things change um especially in the national reserve. Um so what we

can do we can come up with recommendations based on our our findings our you know it's all based on science obviously. uh so produce reports

science obviously. uh so produce reports with key findings and recommendations uh and then hope that people will listen and and change but there's I think there's just there's so much money

coming into the reserve uh that uh yeah if you start changing things you might lose out on some revenue um but it's just I mean obviously if you

want things to last long term you're going to have to do something to change it because otherwise you're gonna just see massive decrease in wildlife potentially and then tourism will also stop coming.

Right. So, um but yeah, so obviously after this study, we did write a recognition report about regulating numbers of tourist cars and and and

nothing has really seemed to be happening on that front. Um but we hope things will change at some point.

Yeah, the the Narok County claims they have a a a management plan that is widely bought into. The question now is how can it be properly implemented and enforced but um we shall see on that one.

Yeah.

So moving forward then Neils um what else are you looking at? What other

research have you got ongoing?

So right now I'm currently looking at how uh livestock intrusions into the national reserve are affecting lion

survival. Uh so it's no secret that

survival. Uh so it's no secret that cattle graze illegally at night in the national reserve. Everybody knows it. No

national reserve. Everybody knows it. No

one denies it. The county doesn't deny it. And it's, you know, it's obvious.

it. And it's, you know, it's obvious.

You can al just by uh driving into the reserve or flying a hot air balloon over the reserve, you can clearly see the cow tracks. Um when

it becomes more dry, you see cows leaving uh the reserve quite late in the morning. Uh so yeah and and we also have

morning. Uh so yeah and and we also have seen uh we're losing over the years been

losing uh some of the healthy adult pride line pride uh females and and that's very it's not normal that that that adult females healthy adult

females and prides territorial females they disappear. Um and and we we do have

they disappear. Um and and we we do have a little bit of evidence of herders um retaliating at night in the reserve. Uh

but it's really difficult to document.

Um so I'm I'm kind of now looking at how um nighttime illegal nighttime grazing using cattle tracks as a proxy uh for

the grazing how that is affecting lion survival. So it's a it's quite a

survival. So it's a it's quite a complicated lion uh survival model that I'm using. Um, so that's what I'm doing

I'm using. Um, so that's what I'm doing at the moment. And um, it yeah, it it seems like that there is a a big effect

on lion survival. So the closer the lines they are to the boundary where you have more cows coming in, the the the higher mortality.

But that is uh, yeah, still in the making and and hopefully will be published soon.

Yeah, that's great. Um, I really appreciate you sharing this with us, Neil. Um Neils um the

Neil. Um Neils um the you know the the multiple perspectives that we've been encouraging to to share the views on the the podcast uh

suggest that it's still an amazing place a wonderful place for wildlife and a wonderful place for tourism but I have to say that um it's scientists like yourself who sort of in inform the

management and the responses and I guess without your kind of research things would be an awful lot worse than they are. So, so we have to sort of, you

are. So, so we have to sort of, you know, raise our hats and and thank you and the scientific community for for finding things out that are are going to drive the future of the mass one hopes.

Yeah. Yeah. No, thanks Steve. Uh, but

it's not only us from the side, like I said, we have the community side, right?

So, they are also Yeah. super important

and and we work obviously close with community side of the program and and and they use a lot of our findings to go

out and and uh know where to uh in or yeah where where to put in more effort on um conservation outside these

protected areas. Um so yeah so we what

protected areas. Um so yeah so we what we find with our caller data where we find hotspots that's where they know to go and and and do more awareness and

mitigation and so forth. Um so it's all yeah it's all working together uh us with the the community side but also us in general with other stakeholders

authorities the county managers and so forth.

Great. Well good luck with all of that and and many thanks for joining us on the podcast. I'll let you go and count

the podcast. I'll let you go and count lions if that's what you've got lined up for the rest of your day.

Yeah. Thank you. It's been a pleasure to be on the show.